Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum

MakMan44

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SemperFidelisSox said:
Phil Hughes.
:bravo:
 
EDIT:
 
Abbey, I have a problem with your assessment of the Yankees signing Ellsbury as a reactionary move to the M's intention. Ellsbury and Cano could not be any more different as players. A reactionary move in response to the Red Sox winning the WS, yes, maybe but even with Ellsbury in the fold, you don't see them signing/trading for a middle of the order bat if Cano leaves?
 

JohntheBaptist

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jon abbey said:
 
I don't have anything everyone else doesn't have, just the way that this whole process has gone so far.
 
If NY had any interest in going over $200M for Cano, they would have raised their offer at least a bit when he 'dropped' his price from $310M to $250-$260M. They didn't budge from $165M-$170M then, and they're definitely not going to (yes, IMO) now. 
Yeah, what's so hard to believe about that?  They're $80 million apart.  If SEA is offering what he wants, that gap isn't getting crossed, it wouldn't make any sense.
 

bankshot1

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I don't think the Y will match this reported offer, but it was interesting in the McCann press conference, Cashman was questioned about Cano and he seemed to indicate that Cano had not yet received the Y's best offer.
 

foulkehampshire

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I only feel like the Yankees playing hardball on the Cano contract because they didn't believe that any organization could match that original offer. No need to get played against themselves - ala Arod. 
 
I still can't envision them letting Cano walk over something as trivial as money. 
 

jon abbey

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MakMan44 said:
 
 
Abbey, I have a problem with your assessment of the Yankees signing Ellsbury as a reactionary move to the M's intention. Ellsbury and Cano could not be any more different as players. A reactionary move in response to the Red Sox winning the WS, yes, maybe but even with Ellsbury in the fold, you don't see them signing/trading for a middle of the order bat if Cano leaves?
 
Again, I can't repeat this enough: people are understsndably looking at NY's moves as if their main goal is to win games, as it should be. But IMO this is not the case, their main goal for this season is still to stay under $189M. Their secondary goal is to sell tickets, which is where they think Ellsbury can help (and I'm sure Boras pushed this aspect hard), and their tertiary goal is to win games. They'll do what they can to improve the team, as long as it fits with their first two goals. 
 

foulkehampshire

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jon abbey said:
 
Again, I can't repeat this enough: people are understsndably looking at NY's moves as if their main goal is to win games, as it should be. But IMO this is not the case, their main goal for this season is still to stay under $189M. Their secondary goal is to sell tickets, which is where they think Ellsbury can help (and I'm sure Boras pushed this aspect hard), and their tertiary goal is to win games. They'll do what they can to improve the team, as long as it fits with their first two goals. 
 
They've just spent a quarter billion on 2 players. Doesn't that seem contradictory to the 189M plan? 
 

glennhoffmania

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bankshot1 said:
Wasn't the deal that Andy felt slighted during the '03 off-season, that he wasn't Cashman's top priority? So he bolted. And he was older, but not so old he didn't come back to NYC to finish it up there.
 
I thought it was also that he wanted to go home to Houston and there was a domestic issue that lead to his wife making him leave NY.  Only rumors, but here is the story.
 

jon abbey

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foulkehampshire said:
 
They've just spent a quarter billion on 2 players. Doesn't that seem contradictory to the 189M plan? 
 
No, not at all. We have a thread on this, they have $30M or so left to spend. They don't care much at all what they spend in 2015 and beyond, just this year.
 
And again to be clear, this is not an intelligent way to run a baseball team, I don't personally agree with any of these moves (although I wouldn't go nearly that high for Cano, I would have probably tried to push harder for him earlier in the process, although that might not have mattered), I am just trying to explain what I think is happening. 
 

MakMan44

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jon abbey said:
 
Again, I can't repeat this enough: people are understsndably looking at NY's moves as if their main goal is to win games, as it should be. But IMO this is not the case, their main goal for this season is still to stay under $189M. Their secondary goal is to sell tickets, which is where they think Ellsbury can help (and I'm sure Boras pushed this aspect hard), and their tertiary goal is to win games. They'll do what they can to improve the team, as long as it fits with their first two goals. 
Speaking of this, I was listening to ESPN radio last night on my way to work and a caller was asking why couldn't the Yankees just backload Cano's contract so they can stay under the cap now. Whoever was the host said "Well I guess they could but why would Cano agree to that?" 
 
To me this sort of speaks to the problem with Yankee fans right now. The vast majority of them do not understand the intricacies of getting under the cap and possibly why it's going to only be a one year thing. My point being there is a chance, however slight, that signing Ellsbury but not Cano could end up backfiring on the Yankees. 
 
Obviously, that relies heavily on what Cano ends up getting versus what the Yankees final offer is. 
 

jon abbey

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Some Cashman quotes from earlier today, at the McCann press conference, via Bryan Hoch on Twitter:
 
================================================
 
Cashman won't be surprised if Cano signs elsewhere; said NYY has already offered more than planned. "I hope it's us. I can't guarantee it."
 
More Cashman: "We're not waiting for Robbie. Robbie is not waiting for us. We're out there trying to sign players."
 

cromulence

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MakMan44 said:
Speaking of this, I was listening to ESPN radio last night on my way to work and a caller was asking why couldn't the Yankees just backload Cano's contract so they can stay under the cap now. Whoever was the host said "Well I guess they could but why would Cano agree to that?" 
 
To me this sort of speaks to the problem with Yankee fans right now. The vast majority of them do not understand the intricacies of getting under the cap and possibly why it's going to only be a one year thing. My point being there is a chance, however slight, that signing Ellsbury but not Cano could end up backfiring on the Yankees. 
 
Obviously, that relies heavily on what Cano ends up getting versus what the Yankees final offer is. 
 
Is this a problem with Yankee fans or is it true about fans in general? It sounds like the host also wasn't aware of how it works. I think your typical baseball fan has no clue how the luxury tax works.
 

foulkehampshire

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jon abbey said:
Some Cashman quotes from earlier today, at the McCann press conference, via Bryan Hoch on Twitter:
 
================================================
 
Cashman won't be surprised if Cano signs elsewhere; said NYY has already offered more than planned. "I hope it's us. I can't guarantee it."
 
More Cashman: "We're not waiting for Robbie. Robbie is not waiting for us. We're out there trying to sign players."
 
Not to nitpick, but Cashman is as cryptic as it comes. The years have shown to treat what he says with a grain of salt. 
 

Murderer's Crow

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Is this a problem with Yankee fans or is it true about fans in general? It sounds like the host also wasn't aware of how it works. I think your typical baseball fan has no clue how the luxury tax works.


It begs the question though on whether they wouldn't sigh Cano to more than 200m simply because they don't want him or for the short term goal of being under 189. I bet there's quite a bit if disagreement over that.
 

MakMan44

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cromulence said:
 
Is this a problem with Yankee fans or is it true about fans in general? It sounds like the host also wasn't aware of how it works. I think your typical baseball fan has no clue how the luxury tax works.
No, you're totally right. I was applying it here because the Yankees are in a very unique situation right now. 
 

SunkToANewLowell

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ThePrideofShiner said:
How many people have made more than $24 million a season? And is Cano as good as those people?
14
 
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
4. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
5. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)
. . Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17) 
. . Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
8. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 [SIZE=x-small](2013-18)[/SIZE]
9. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 [SIZE=78%](2012-16) [/SIZE]
10. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)
. . . Albert Pujols, $24,000,000 [SIZE=78%](2012-21)
. . . [/SIZE]Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 [SIZE=78%](2013-18)[/SIZE]
 

JohntheBaptist

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foulkehampshire said:
 
Not to nitpick, but Cashman is as cryptic as it comes. The years have shown to treat what he says with a grain of salt. 
Actually to my observation that last few years have shown quite the opposite.  He's stopped giving a fuck and says what's on his mind.
 
That being said--he didn't "say" anything in those quotes, just stated the obvious.
 

jon abbey

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foulkehampshire said:
 
Not to nitpick, but Cashman is as cryptic as it comes. The years have shown to treat what he says with a grain of salt. 
 
I'd like to hear some examples of this besides Teixiera, where NY clearly changed course at the last minute after Cashman begged Hal for extra money in the budget. In recent years, he's been as publicly straightforward as any sports executive I can think of, at every stage of the process. 
 

jon abbey

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JohntheBaptist said:
Actually to my observation that last few years have shown quite the opposite.  He's stopped giving a fuck and says what's on his mind.
 
That being said--he didn't "say" anything in those quotes, just stated the obvious.
 
It was just the 'already offered more than planned' that I thought was interesting, that's why I posted it. 
 

cromulence

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crow216 said:
It begs the question though on whether they wouldn't sigh Cano to more than 200m simply because they don't want him or for the short term goal of being under 189. I bet there's quite a bit if disagreement over that.
 
We'll have to see how it shakes out - if Cano ends up getting 10/230-240, I think most fans will understand why they wouldn't do it. A-Rod, Pujols, and Mauer have all shown that 10 year contracts are generally not a good idea and if the Mariners go there, you tip your hat. If it ends up being something like 8/205, then you have a point. Of course, there will always be an idiotic subset of Yankee fans who are to be ignored.
 

JohntheBaptist

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jon abbey said:
 
It was just the 'already offered more than planned' that I thought was interesting, that's why I posted it. 
 
You're absolutely right, my bad--that is pretty interesting, definitely poking his head above the garden variety platitude.
 

Rustjive

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jon abbey said:
 
Again, I can't repeat this enough: people are understsndably looking at NY's moves as if their main goal is to win games, as it should be. But IMO this is not the case, their main goal for this season is still to stay under $189M. Their secondary goal is to sell tickets, which is where they think Ellsbury can help (and I'm sure Boras pushed this aspect hard), and their tertiary goal is to win games. They'll do what they can to improve the team, as long as it fits with their first two goals. 
This line of thinking doesn't make sense when explaining why the Yankees aren't looking to go extra years. You say 'good luck to the Mariners' @ 10/230, but that's just a shade over 7/160 in AAV. There's no significant difference towards the first goal of getting under $189M. Losing Cano because years 8-10 aren't likely to be worth it is opposite of how the Yankees have operated.
 

cromulence

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Rustjive said:
This line of thinking doesn't make sense when explaining why the Yankees aren't looking to go extra years. You say 'good luck to the Mariners' @ 10/230, but that's just a shade over 7/160 in AAV. There's no significant difference towards the first goal of getting under $189M. Losing Cano because years 8-10 aren't likely to be worth it is opposite of how the Yankees have operated.
 
A-Rod. If it wasn't all hitting the fan right now maybe they'd go down that road again, but I think they might've learned their lesson.
 

jon abbey

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Rustjive said:
This line of thinking doesn't make sense when explaining why the Yankees aren't looking to go extra years. You say 'good luck to the Mariners' @ 10/230, but that's just a shade over 7/160 in AAV. There's no significant difference towards the first goal of getting under $189M. Losing Cano because years 8-10 aren't likely to be worth it is opposite of how the Yankees have operated.
 
Yeah, I think that's more tied into not wanting to be locked into another albatross deal like the one they have with A-Rod right now. Most deals this big end up sucking for the team who signs them, we all know that but still somehow we seem to collectively forget it every winter. 
 

rembrat

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On the plus side if the M's do sign Robinson Cano, Dave Cameron's head might literally explode.
 

Sampo Gida

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In terms of the 189 goal for 2014, it makes no difference if the Yankees give Cano 7/175 or 10/250.  At least Jacoby's contract will be off the books in the last 3 years of a 10 yr Cano deal.  I would not be surprised it gets done.  If the endorsement opportunities are much better in NY maybe he even takes a lesser deal, say 10/225.  The lower AAV on the 10 yr deal makes 189 more achievable.
 
Personally, given the way Cano has bulked up in recent years and the fact his workout buddy Cervelli got busted for PED's. I am not that confident he ages well.  Might be best for the Yankees to walk away, but they may be in panic mode over plummeting ticket sales and ratings and fear the consequences of not signing him,  As exciting a player as Ellsbury is at the top of the order, you need guys in the middle of the order to drive him in.   Seeing Ellsbury stranded at 2B is not going to put fans in the stands and keep them watching on TV.
 
In the short term, Cano is not being overpaid at 25 million AAV, and then you hope you have some cost controlled players who can subsidize the latter half of the deal when he will be overpaid.
 

E5 Yaz

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SunkToANewLowell said:
14
 
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
4. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
5. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)
. . Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17) 
. . Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
8. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 [SIZE=x-small](2013-18)[/SIZE]
9. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 [SIZE=78%](2012-16) [/SIZE]
10. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)
. . . Albert Pujols, $24,000,000 [SIZE=78%](2012-21)
. . . [/SIZE]Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 [SIZE=78%](2013-18)[/SIZE]
 
 
Moral of the story ... get Ruben Amaro Jr drunk
 

SemperFidelisSox

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If neither Seattle or NY are willing to go over $200 million, why are we so sure Cano would pick the Mariners over NY if the difference is only $10-15 million?
 

Sampo Gida

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RedOctober3829 said:
It's serious enough that he's going to Seattle. If I were the M's I wouldn't let him leave without a signature on a contract. Otherwise he's not signing there.
 
He probably wants to see if they will raise their offer.  Jay-Z then calls Cashman and asks if they will match, or come up on their latest offer.  If the answer is no or not much Cano leaves Seattle a Mariner. If they get a positive response from Cashman they say they need to think about it and  then do a deal with NY.  If NY comes up to 8/200 he is a Yankee.
 

mauf

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Sampo Gida said:
In terms of the 189 goal for 2014, it makes no difference if the Yankees give Cano 7/175 or 10/250.  At least Jacoby's contract will be off the books in the last 3 years of a 10 yr Cano deal.  I would not be surprised it gets done.  If the endorsement opportunities are much better in NY maybe he even takes a lesser deal, say 10/225.  The lower AAV on the 10 yr deal makes 189 more achievable.
 
Personally, given the way Cano has bulked up in recent years and the fact his workout buddy Cervelli got busted for PED's. I am not that confident he ages well.  Might be best for the Yankees to walk away, but they may be in panic mode over plummeting ticket sales and ratings and fear the consequences of not signing him,  As exciting a player as Ellsbury is at the top of the order, you need guys in the middle of the order to drive him in.   Seeing Ellsbury stranded at 2B is not going to put fans in the stands and keep them watching on TV.
 
In the short term, Cano is not being overpaid at 25 million AAV, and then you hope you have some cost controlled players who can subsidize the latter half of the deal when he will be overpaid.
 
How much value do you think Cano places on the ability to test the market in his age 38, 39 and 40 seasons? I'm guessing the answer is "almost none."
 
If they're willing to go 7/175, I think they'll bite the bullet and go 10/210 to get the deal done.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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I keep hearing on New York radio that Cano will never leave the Yankees for the Mariners.  That the Mariners suck, etc.  However, the Mariners have a brighter future than the Yankees.  The Yankees rotation is terrible--Sabathia is a TJ surgery waiting to happen, Nova is inconsistent, and Kuroda, if the Yankees bring him back, is like 77 years old.  In contrast, we know the Mariners are loaded at the top of their rotation with King Felix (27 years old) and Iwakuma, and they have an elite starting pitching prospect in T.Walker who is just getting started.  If you believe pitching wins championships, the Mariners are closer to a championship than the Yankees.
 

iowacityiconoclast

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It's worth noting that simple inflation, and MLB's rapidly deepening pockets, will make $22 or $25 million look different in eight or ten years. Paying that much out to a 39-year old DH/platoon-type, while patently absurd in 2013, probably isn't going to significantly hamstring big- and middle-market clubs in 2024.
 
Mike Trout's 15 year/$650 million dollar contract, on the other hand...
 

RyanKalishOnTheDL

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Source with knowledge of the Mariners planning said they are going to offer Cano 9 years/$225 million doesn't mean it will shake out exactly that way, but if it goes to 9-years, $225 million, Yankees won't match
 

BoSox Rule

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SemperFidelisSox said:
Jay-Z recruited Cano to his agency with promises of marketing opportunities and expanding the Cano brand. His own shoe from Nike, cologne, clothing line. He isn't leaving the NY market to sign with fucking Seattle.
 

nattysez

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FWIW, if you want to work closely with Nike, Nike's HQ is a heck of a lot closer to Seattle than it is to NY.  
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
@JonHeymanCBS: Update: Mariners likely Cano bid may be $225M, 9 years, according to sources. http://t.co/wQdNVX2rkd
 
OTOH. I know people have mentioned that he would suffer in Seattle but if anything couldn't you spin to Cano that he could be the face of an emerging franchise and become bigger than A-Rod? This team has quite a bit of young talent and has King Felix locked up through his prime years. I personally don't view Cano as a $25 million dollar a year player but then again he's probably going to age better than someone like Ryan Howard or Pujols. 
 

RedOctober3829

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Tyrone Biggums said:
 
OTOH. I know people have mentioned that he would suffer in Seattle but if anything couldn't you spin to Cano that he could be the face of an emerging franchise and become bigger than A-Rod? This team has quite a bit of young talent and has King Felix locked up through his prime years. I personally don't view Cano as a $25 million dollar a year player but then again he's probably going to age better than someone like Ryan Howard or Pujols. 
Another factor is how close they could be to trading for and extending David Price. A Felix-Price top of the rotation could be very tempting.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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RedOctober3829 said:
Another factor is how close they could be to trading for and extending David Price. A Felix-Price top of the rotation could be very tempting.
 
If they get Price/Felix then Cano...they would become a pretty serious threat in the West. Despite whoever they have in that bullpen. 
 

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BoSox Rule said:
 
This. It's ridiculous to think that a guy can't be marketable if they play in Seattle. I agree with John Abbey, I think Ellsbury was a PR move. Yankees tickets went on sale six days ago. Two days ago, they signed Ellsbury within hours of new breaking that Cano returning to the Yankees was "less than 50-50". And then yesterday it became public knowledge that the posting system will be changed in a way that will prevent the Yankees from signing Tanaka and staying under the luxury tax threshold.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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If they get Cano, I hope they keep away from Price--they would be better off keeping the cost-controlled T.Walker.
 
Would winning a championship with the Mariners--the first ever for that organization--do more for Cano's legacy, popularity, and HOF candidacy than staying in pinstripes?  Maybe. . . .
 

StuckOnYouk

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Yep, a Cano/Price week would be huge for Seattle and thoughts of them being an also-ran to the Yankees would be moot. Then it would be a question of does he take less money just to play in New York City rather than does he take less money to play in NYC and win championships. Because Seattle could be a pretty damn good team in the near future.
 
again, thats if they get Cano/Price.
 
*of course even if Cano decides before they possibly land Price, they could still pitch it to him that they are going balls to the wall to get him.