Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum

Dan Murfman · Jul 2, 2013

Boras doesnt have any leverage. He's not his agent. He's with Jay Z

Dummy Hoy · Jul 2, 2013

Pretty sure the Yanks have already admitted coming under the luxury tax threshold was a pipe dream.

They'll sign Cano to a massive deal and get 2-3 seasons worth the price tag.

jon abbey · Jul 2, 2013

Yeah, I've been talking about this for a while, they are fucked either way. I'm glad it's not my call.

Seels · Jul 2, 2013

I don't see what they have to lose by letting him test the market. What other large market team has a need at 2b and has financial flexibility of signing him? Though he'd be great on either of the DC based teams

pokey_reese · Jul 2, 2013

Seels said:
I don't see what they have to lose by letting him test the market. What other large market team has a need at 2b and has financial flexibility of signing him? Though he'd be great on either of the DC based teams

I think that what they have to lose is Cano. "Letting him test the market" is traditionally baseball speak for "no one else will want you as much as we do, come back once you have figured that out." This tends to leave a bad taste in players' mouths, and has in the past led to a quick signing with another team who makes a strong offer. Not always, but it happens, in which case the Yankees would be pretty screwed.

Orel Miraculous · Jul 2, 2013

Seels said:
I don't see what they have to lose by letting him test the market. What other large market team has a need at 2b and has financial flexibility of signing him? Though he'd be great on either of the DC based teams

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 2, 2013

I don't see how they can do anything except sign him. So few stars players make it to free agency and so few guys stay highly productive well into their 30s so if you're the richest team in baseball and your own star player, who has been relatively healthy and seems likely to have a few elite years left, does make it to free agency, then how do you not spend the money? If you're not going to use your payroll advantage to sign a guy like Cano, then who are you going to sign?

LondonSox · Jul 2, 2013

He's like the only player the Yankees have, they simply can't afford to let him go unless they just tank.
There's no big help on the hitting side imminent on the farm they have issues at first (will teix ever be a stud again?), short (jeter is old expensive and coming of injury), third (arod Nuff said), catcher, outfield Granderson is a free agent, Ichiro has a year left but is no answer (unless the question is how many old people can the Yankees briefly rejuvenate before age regains control) leaving Gardner and? Wells???

I mean shit, if cano walks they will have questions at ever spot in the lineup.

Honestly if I were the yanks I would blow it up and rebuild, but I guess they don't see they have the ability to do that.

jon abbey · Jul 2, 2013

Orel Miraculous said:

Even the Dodgers have to hit a limit sometime, and they still have to lock down Kershaw.

yecul · Jul 2, 2013

The Yankees will sign Cano into his late 30s.

IMO, post-steroids, all contracts of 4 or 5 years plus will look bad in hindsight. Best case they remain useful despite not living up to the cash.

yecul · Jul 2, 2013

I think the lure of a $200MM contract and naming a bathroom the Cano Commode would lure him there.

Or a $200MM contract and a slap to the face.

Or even just the $200MM contract on its own.

Gammo is prescient.

Montana Fan · Jul 3, 2013

I know it's extremely unlikely but I would LOVE to see the Sox get involved if the Yanks don't sign Cano and let him "test the waters". Could he be moved to 1b with an eye towards being the DH long term?

I doubt he fits the Sox long term strategy but seeing the Red Sox own, Robinson Cano, ride a horse around Fenway in celebration of b2b World Series wins would be especially nice.

Sampo Gida · Jul 3, 2013

As good as Cano is a team can not win with 1 superstar surrounded by aging flotsam and AAAA replacement level players.

If the Yankees are prepared to spend 250 million a year on payroll to compete then by all means sign Cano.

However, if signing Cano means they won't have the money to spend over the next few years to replace guys like Ichiro, Tex, Arod, Jeter, Granderson, Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes, Rivera etc while still paying what's left on some of the megadeals (esp Arod), and upgrading at DH and C, then forget it.

Wouldn't it be ironic that several years down the road as they are getting rid of some of the bloated non performing contracts that Cano enters the non performing years of his bloated contract?

If there were already some complementary pieces in place I would say go for it, but they don't and should not. Use the Red Sox model, take the money saved on Cano and get a few useful players on short term deals and reasonable money and hope 50% of them meet or exceed expectations.

Then maybe once the farm system produces, if it ever does again , you have payroll flexibility to add complementary pieces.

It's the Dark Ages for the Bronx, not withstanding the occasional gifts like Twinkies. Cano ain't going to change that, and remember that the guy you see in his contract years is not always the same guy you get when he has a 6-8 yr deal and is filthy rich.

Dionysus · Jul 4, 2013

Montana Fan said:
I know it's extremely unlikely but I would LOVE to see the Sox get involved if the Yanks don't sign Cano and let him "test the waters". Could he be moved to 1b with an eye towards being the DH long term?

I doubt he fits the Sox long term strategy but seeing the Red Sox own, Robinson Cano, ride a horse around Fenway in celebration of b2b World Series wins would be especially nice.

Ha ha ha no.

No, no, no god no.

Forget all the issues about the length and cost of the contract and whether the he can live up to it at all - in your scenario it's virtually impossible for that contract to be close to good value.

Where's he going to play? Sox sure as hell aren't moving Pedey off second. Now you are saying 1st or DH? Well the bidding for Cano will be for his value as a second baseman - where his offense is even more valuable, thus more expensive. As such, if the Sox were to win the bidding then moved him to the least valuable defensive position, they'd be turning an overpay into a MASSIVE overpay.

Heck no.

Why would you "LOVE" to see the Sox shoot themselves in the foot like that?

Montana Fan · Jul 4, 2013

Yeah, after thinking about it Cano would likely be Gonzalez take 2.

Back to fishing.

Sampo Gida · Jul 4, 2013

Montana Fan said:
Yeah, after thinking about it Cano would likely be Gonzalez take 2.

Back to fishing.

Gonzalez in isolation was not bad for the Red Sox, aside from the loss of a few prospects, it was in conjunction with the non-performing contracts of Lackey, Beckett, Youk and Crawford that it hurt. In fact, Gonzalez helped in so far as he allowed them to dump Crawfords and Becketts contracts.

The Red Sox are in a far better position to offer Cano the money he is looking for, even with Pedey looking for a similar payday. However, unlike the Yankees, who cant afford him, they don't need Cano .

derekson · Jul 5, 2013

Cano would be an interesting signing if the Red Sox wanted him to play third base, but it really would only make sense if the Sox are convinced that Iglesias's 2013 season is a complete and utter fluke. If Iglesias has stepped forward enough to be even.a 85-90 wRC+ bat at SS with his glove, then Bogaerts is likely taking over 3B for the next decade or so. But if Xander plays SS with Iglesias in more of a utility role, then Cano as a third baseman would be a creative and potentially awesome solution. Unlike 1B, offense at 3B is worth nearly as much as 2B, and with his reflexes and strong arm Cano would likely be a plus defender at the hot corner. Plus it may save him from the stereotypical 2B cliff dive in his mid 30s. As Iglesias continues hitting though, this already unlikely scenario gets more and more unlikely.

MakMan44 · Aug 19, 2013

Apparently, Bob Nightengale says that the Dodgers don't intend to pursue Cano.

I'd link the tweet but it's not linking correctly.

soxhop411 · Aug 19, 2013

MakMan44 said:
Apparently, Bob Nightengale says that the Dodgers don't intend to pursue Cano.

I'd link the tweet but it's not linking correctly.

sure they dont.... Sure.......... I will believe that when I see it

MakMan44 · Aug 19, 2013

EDIT: Can't embed for shit.

Found the tweet though- https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/369516317465776129

jon abbey · Aug 20, 2013

I believe it, they're already committed to $123M in 2017 (!!) and have Kershaw and Hanley both expiring after 2014. Someone wrote a column today (Heyman? Rosenthal?) about how they tried to trade for Howie Kendrick at the deadline and it didn't work out but they would revisit it this offseason (Kendrick is signed for 2/19.5 total after this season).

MakMan44 · Aug 20, 2013

Be interesting to see it come down to the Mets and Yankees as the two major players for him this offseason.

derekson · Aug 22, 2013

The Mets don't have any money. They aren't going to be players for anyone looking for a 9 figure contract.

EvilEmpire · Aug 22, 2013

I love Cano, but I hate the idea of another mega contract for someone who will be on the wrong side of 30. If he signs a monster contract elsewhere, I'll have mixed feelings.

MakMan44 · Aug 22, 2013

derekson said:
The Mets don't have any money. They aren't going to be players for anyone looking for a 9 figure contract.

What makes you say this?

rembrat · Aug 23, 2013

Met's obligations in 2014

They have $33.5MM locked in for 2014 and a bunch of arb cases that won't break them. You're nuts if you don't think they won't kick the tires on Cano and Ellsbury and anyone else. They have money.

jon abbey · Aug 23, 2013

Yeah, they have a ton of quality young pitching up already and close and very little as far as position players go. They're definitely going to go after a big hitter in FA if at all possible, as rem said.

I think Soriano's addition helps NYY in this situation, however they decide to end up playing it. If they want to keep Cano at the money he'll be asking for, having Soriano to hit behind him for at least one season makes it an easier sell to Cano. If they decide he's not worth the mega-deal he will be expecting, they at least have a seemingly legit middle of the order bat for 2014.

derekson · Aug 24, 2013

rembrat said:
Met's obligations in 2014

They have $33.5MM locked in for 2014 and a bunch of arb cases that won't break them. You're nuts if you don't think they won't kick the tires on Cano and Ellsbury and anyone else. They have money.

The Mets' ownership is broke. They aren't going to be signing anyone to $100M plus contracts. Yes, they'll add some payroll for next season to take it up to around $60M or $70M, but they aren't committing to any 9 figure contracts. The biggest fish they MIGHT go after are guys like Choo or Pence. Even that may be a stretch for them right now. Nelson Cruz is a guy I could see them signing.

A quick google search found an article explaining the situation pretty well: http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2013/06/8530740/jeff-wilpon-and-myth-free-spending-mets-winter-come

So for a fan base that has already written off 2013 as surely as its owner did, the view has turned to this winter. The hope, and increasingly, the conventional wisdom, is that with a number of large contracts coming off the books, the Mets will spend money on new talent the team desperately needs, and which isn't coming through the minor league system just yet.
The problem with this theory comes from treating the Mets, and their ability to spend money, as an independent function of the team's payroll alone. This winter promises to be far more complicated than that, and ownership's ability to spend will hang in the balance while Wilpon and his partners attempt to stave off the debt reckoning barreling toward them. Remember, this is fundamentally different than paying the annual interest on their debts, which has financially crippled the team annually, and forced things like a minority sale in March 2012, and a large loan this past winter.
So measure the impact of these two things, if you wish: Johan Santana's $31 million coming off the books, along with Jason Bay's $21 million. This is more complicated than it sounds, in terms of freed-up money, since $15 million of Bay's $21 million was deferred, the Mets just choosing to call that money part of 2013 payroll (likely to inflate the 2013 number for public consumption), while $5 million of Santana's 2013 salary was already deferred, and another $5.5 million of that $31 million is a buyout of Santana's 2014 option, not due until the end of the season. So functionally, Bay and Santana earned $32 million this season, not $52 million. How that supposedly stopped the Mets from improving the team last winter would be a mystery, absent other information.
But naturally, we have other information. And a cursory look at the obstacles ahead quickly makes thinking of how the Mets will spend this winter in terms of Bay and Santana look like the red herring it is.
Mets' ownership is still financing an enormous debt load, took another $160 million in loans against their S.N.Y. ownership stake last winter, all part of their year-by-year effort to keep the ball in the air. They owe $320 million in a loan against the team, due in June 2014. And their debt total against S.N.Y., including the new loans last winter, are up over $600 million, and due in 2015.

Scoops Bolling · Aug 25, 2013

derekson said:
The Mets don't have any money. They aren't going to be players for anyone looking for a 9 figure contract.

They also have Wilmer Flores, who with David Wright's return will likely be making his way over to 2B where he played most of the season in AAA. He'll be a mess defensively, but given his offensive upside, I can't see the Mets deciding to throw a 9 digit contract at Cano when they can pay Flores $400,000 for the next three years.

jon abbey · Aug 25, 2013

Olney's column is about this today, he has the main threat for the Yankees here as Detroit, but concludes by saying:

"Cano is a five-time All-Star, and has finished in the top six in the All-Star voting three times. But his free agency has a chance to play out more like that of Hamilton than with Rodriguez in 2000, because he may not have a high volume of suitors. He is just too expensive for almost all teams."

derekson · Aug 25, 2013

I could definitely see the Tigers going after Cano, especially if they come up short again this year in their pursuit of a World Series title before Ilitch dies. That would definitely make a big statement about them being all in to get a World Series win.

ThePrideofShiner · Aug 26, 2013

A 3-4-5 of Cabrera, Fielder and Cano would be ridiculous.

derekson · Aug 26, 2013

ThePrideofShiner said:
A 3-4-5 of Cabrera, Fielder and Cano would be ridiculous.

I was thinking a lineup more like:

CF Jackson
2B Cano
3B Cabrera
1B Fielder
RF Hunter
DH VMart
LF Castellanos
C Avila or whoever else
SS Iglesias

That would be insane, especially in conjunction with their starting rotation.

mt8thsw9th · Aug 26, 2013

Hunter will be turning 39 next year and Victor will be 35. If anything they're just offsetting declines. Fielder hasn't been very good and will be 30. Decent lineup, sure, but their pitching will need to carry them.

radsoxfan · Aug 26, 2013

mt8thsw9th said:
Hunter will be turning 39 next year and Victor will be 35. If anything they're just offsetting declines. Fielder hasn't been very good and will be 30. Decent lineup, sure, but their pitching will need to carry them.

If all Cano does is offset declines, that means the Tigers will lead the majors in runs scored again (currently they're 1 run up on the Red Sox, and 31 runs up on the 3rd place cardinals)

By decent, did you mean elite? Even a complete crash and burn by Iglesias wouldn't prevent that offense from being great, barring multiple major injuries.

mt8thsw9th · Aug 26, 2013

No, I didn't mean elite but thanks for asking.

radsoxfan · Aug 27, 2013

mt8thsw9th said:
No, I didn't mean elite but thanks for asking.

Feel free to explain how that offense, plus Cano, will need their "pitching to carry them" next season.

I'm quite familiar with normal aging curves and agree 4 or 5 years from now they could be in trouble if their best hitters are all 35+. I think a long term deal for Cano is likely a bad idea for that reason. But next season, offensively they would be a monster.

semsox · Aug 27, 2013

Cano got hit in the hand in the 1st inning tonight and left the game. Did not look great

Puffy · Aug 27, 2013

semsox said:
Cano got hit in the hand in the 1st inning tonight and left the game. Did not look great

JA Happ is a one man Yankee wrecking machine.

Kevin Youkulele · Aug 28, 2013

semsox said:
Cano got hit in the hand in the 1st inning tonight and left the game. Did not look great

Just a contusion and no broken bone. http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2013/08/cano_leaves_yankees_game.html

melonbag · Aug 31, 2013

I hope Cashman does a better job here than he did with CC. Not only did he give CC a record deal (bidding against himself), but he gave him an opt out which cost the Yanks another year which looks awful now. Any GM can open the wallet and overpay. Cashman needs to negotiate well in light of his poor performance with the farm players.

Cano is not worth a Pujols/ARod/Prince type deal, and neither are they. Let him walk if another team wants to give him a crazy deal....it just takes one dumb owner.

jon abbey · Aug 31, 2013

So what would people offer if they were Cashman? I was thinking about this the other day, and without putting too much thought or research into it, I'd go to something like 7/140 tops.

Dahabenzapple2 · Aug 31, 2013

A real problem

With idiots like Sweeney Murti talking like CC is having an average year and thinking they have a real chance and saying Ichiro and Reynolds are batting down in the order because there are HOFers in front of them....denial runs deep in parts of Yankee land.....

So is Cano part of the solution? I think Jon is on for the money. I would offer it and hope for 4-5 good years. Scary part is he could get 8-180

Van Everyman · Aug 31, 2013

As a Sox fan, I have a hard time getting too excited about the potential for the Yankees to seriously mess this up. The last time we were all licking our chops like this is when Jeter was up. Everyone was convinced the combination of Jeter's ego and continuing production would result in a historically bad AAV and length – myself included. And then he promptly did the Yankees an enormous favor by completely sucking in his contract year.

Obviously the comparison is by no means apples to apples – Cano had had another strong year and the Yankees do seen particularly desperate right now. And it's hard to gauge how much the whole ARod situation may be influencing their thinking. But every time I am inclined to underestimate Cashman et al, I find myself extremely disappointed.

The right decision here, assuming Cano doesn't decide to give them an enormous hometown discount, is to let Cano walk and use the resources to do something along the lines of what Ben did this past offseason. Will be interesting to see if they do.

Doctor G · Aug 31, 2013

Cano would be wise to sign on with the Dodgers. He would have a lineup around him like he was used to coming up in New York.
I just don't see Cano as a guy who would be comfortable taking on the Jeter face of the franchise role for the Yankees.

Saints Rest · Sep 3, 2013

Pedrioa's contract would have to be the starting point. The Yanks will argue that that is appropriate AAV. Cano will argue that Pedroia wasn't on the open market. Cano may also argue that theYanks need him more than he needs them. Yanks may try to offer Mystique and Aura and Yankee Captaincy (TM).

It will be an interesting negotiation.

jon abbey · Sep 9, 2013

Olney just linked this while saying "Another indication the Dodgers won't be in on the Robinson Cano bidding":

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/9655763/los-angeles-dodgers-close-deal-cuban-defector-alexander-guerrero-source-says

Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum

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