Based on Farrell's comments, I'd be shocked if Barnes doesn't end up in the bullpen. The question is who would end up out of the pen. Varvaro?
Bullpen 2015
- Thread starter Sprowl
- Start date
Merkle's Boner said:
I wouldn't bet on it. If he's anything like his 2014, Varvaro is pretty damn good, still pre-arb, and out of options.
(That trade was highway robbery.)
I'm almost there with you, but if there's a need for another starter early in the season, what are our options now?Merkle's Boner said:
Workman is probably option one, bit is entirely possible that this is the year they say fuckit and make him a bullpen guy permanently.
Owens, Johnson, and Rodriguez probably aren't going to be options early on.
That leaves Wright and Escobar after Workman and I'm not real confident in any of them so I'd like more options even if it is just until the troika get some innings under their belts.
All the guys being discussed are options for the #4-5 slot in the pen. Aside from Koji, and perhaps Tazawa, there isn't a dominant arm in this current pen, and that's the biggest weakness I see for the 2015 Sox. If they had the chance to add a high end arm (Kimbrel, Chapman), I think the front office would do so, even at the cost of an asset such as JBJ or even Owens, depending on the years of control. Almost every pen in the division has better k/9 ratios than this Sox pen, and that assumes Koji is vintage Koji.Rasputin said:
They have so many options for #4 and #5 that it really isn't in my top 5 list of worries.
If they need the bullpen ace, trying Barnes out in that role isn't going to deplete their starting options all that much.
Cherington has also said that once a pitcher hits AAA, they are an injury away from starting so I'm thinking he believes those guys can step in and spot start if needed.
Johnson's stuff is what it is, and his command in the strike zone is his strength. His floor is high enough that he can probably go in and take the ball now.
That's a bit off topic though, so my point is that they are one of the few teams who could experiment with bullpen conversion from guys who could probably still be effective starters elsewhere.
They have 12 potential starters between MLB and AAA and Brandon Workman. I don't think there is another team in baseball with that many options.Rasputin said:
If they need the bullpen ace, trying Barnes out in that role isn't going to deplete their starting options all that much.
Cherington has also said that once a pitcher hits AAA, they are an injury away from starting so I'm thinking he believes those guys can step in and spot start if needed.
Johnson's stuff is what it is, and his command in the strike zone is his strength. His floor is high enough that he can probably go in and take the ball now.
That's a bit off topic though, so my point is that they are one of the few teams who could experiment with bullpen conversion from guys who could probably still be effective starters elsewhere.
I could see them give Barnes one last chance at starter, but unless the secondary pitches improve markedly, sort of expect them to convert him to relief in the second half of this year, especially if we're contending.
If Barnes is converted to relief, starting depth probably goes Workman, then Wright / Owens / Johnson / Escobar depending on who's hot at the time.
In the bullpen, I actually think the top-4 are pretty solid with Uehara (hopefully fully recovered from injury), Tazawa, Mujica (was good in the second half last year & had a good track record before that) and Varvaro (was good for the Braves). Beyond that we don't have an awesome lefty specialist, though Layne & Eveland were good last year. It should be a spring training battle for the last spot or two & tons of quality depth in the minors for injury / underperformance.
This group should be a strength next year unless things go horribly wrong.
If Barnes is converted to relief, starting depth probably goes Workman, then Wright / Owens / Johnson / Escobar depending on who's hot at the time.
In the bullpen, I actually think the top-4 are pretty solid with Uehara (hopefully fully recovered from injury), Tazawa, Mujica (was good in the second half last year & had a good track record before that) and Varvaro (was good for the Braves). Beyond that we don't have an awesome lefty specialist, though Layne & Eveland were good last year. It should be a spring training battle for the last spot or two & tons of quality depth in the minors for injury / underperformance.
This group should be a strength next year unless things go horribly wrong.
grimshaw said:
I'm not worried about #4 and #5, but #6 and #7 for basically the first half the season.
Of those twelve, five are going to be in the rotation, and three are going to be Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson, who aren't going to be good options for at least a half a season or so.
That leaves us Workman, Wright, Barnes, and Escobar. If we remove Barnes to stick him in the major league pen, I'm just a bit concerned is all.
ALiveH said:
Varvaro has a notable reverse split in his career. He holds lefties to a JBJ-an .196/.275/.322 line, and even better in 2014. He may be our primary bullpen option against LHH.
edit: Rotundlio helpfully PM'd me to note that Varvaro's success against LHH is partly due to a suspiciously low BABIP. It's a well-taken point, but I'd judge that he still looks useful in that role, if not as excellent as I had hoped.
With obvious caveats, I think Alexei Ogando is a pretty damn good candidate for that "top 4" group, ahead of Varvaro and maybe Mujica too. He's a huge injury concern, but if he's healthy, he gives them a formidable power arm out there.ALiveH said:
Per Edes http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/42156/five-things-still-to-learn-about-sox?ex_cid=espnapi_public
There are a couple jobs to be had. Alexi Ogando, an All-Star in Texas before shoulder and elbow injuries in the last two seasons, has made a strong bid for a job, and Farrell has said he could make a huge impact in the late innings. Remaining healthy will be his biggest challenge.
Anthony Varvaro, a reliable setup man for the Braves the last couple of years, seems assured of another spot, joining closer Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Edward Mujica as right-handers. That’s five spots there.
Still to be determined is how many lefties Farrell takes north with him, and their identity. Craig Breslow would seem to be the leading candidate to claim one job, with the Sox believing his subpar performance last season was an outlier. But the Sox also traded for Robbie Ross from Texas, giving up right-hander Anthony Ranaudo, and Bobby Layne pitched surprisingly well after being signed as a six-year minor-league free agent. Varvaro’s success against left-handers may sway the Sox to keep just one lefty, which could open up a job for another righty, either Brandon Workman or Steven Wright.
No link, but I heard Bradford comment on the radio during Sunday's game broadcast that Ross hasn't separated himself this spring and he has Tommy Lane in his projected bullpen.
Edit - Bradford also mentioned Ross has options.
There are a couple jobs to be had. Alexi Ogando, an All-Star in Texas before shoulder and elbow injuries in the last two seasons, has made a strong bid for a job, and Farrell has said he could make a huge impact in the late innings. Remaining healthy will be his biggest challenge.
Anthony Varvaro, a reliable setup man for the Braves the last couple of years, seems assured of another spot, joining closer Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Edward Mujica as right-handers. That’s five spots there.
Still to be determined is how many lefties Farrell takes north with him, and their identity. Craig Breslow would seem to be the leading candidate to claim one job, with the Sox believing his subpar performance last season was an outlier. But the Sox also traded for Robbie Ross from Texas, giving up right-hander Anthony Ranaudo, and Bobby Layne pitched surprisingly well after being signed as a six-year minor-league free agent. Varvaro’s success against left-handers may sway the Sox to keep just one lefty, which could open up a job for another righty, either Brandon Workman or Steven Wright.
No link, but I heard Bradford comment on the radio during Sunday's game broadcast that Ross hasn't separated himself this spring and he has Tommy Lane in his projected bullpen.
Edit - Bradford also mentioned Ross has options.
phenweigh said:
It's interesting to me that Red Sox believe that 2014 was an outlier for Breslow - and that he's the leading LHP in the bullpen. I can see that LOB%, HR/9, and BB/9 were higher than his career averages (as well as FIP, xFIP), but it never looked to me like he was unlucky out there or anything. I wonder if there was an underlying injury that the team is aware of.
Speaking of Steven Wright, Dave Cameron posted some of his usual oddball against-the-grain musings about the use of Wright in the starting rotation (or a Wright-Owens or Wright-Rodriguez tandem).
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/steven-wright-as-a-joe-kelly-alternative/
I love the idea of Steven Wright as swingman (long reliever / spot starter), but isn't that role currently occupied by Workman? Or would we go into the year with effectively two swingmen? I'd think Workman's the guy & Wright could be first man up from AAA when a starter or Workman go down, if Wright's pitching well.
ALiveH said:
Depending on how long Kelly needs to sit out, we could go into the year with Wright as 5th starter and Workman as long/swing guy, and then decide who to demote when Kelly is ready based on how things go.
Since Breslow really isn't a LHP in any meaningful sense (really, he isn't), if the Sox decide to go with just him throwing lefty, then they're going into the season with Varvaro as their de facto lefty specialist. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it's interesting.
Wright, though the least talented in terms of raw stuff, may well be the best pitcher the Sox have in terms of providing immediate performance. He'll never have the upside that Owens, ERod, or even Johnson have, but his trends over the past year are all in the right direction, especially regarding his control. In 120 IP between AAA and the majors, he had his bb rate below 2.0/9, which is elite for anyone, much less a knuckleballer. I really hope they decide to utilize him in the rotation to start the season if Kelly can't go, and let Workman be the swingman and the rest of the younger guys pitch out of the rotation at AAA. Wright might not look back if given the chance.ALiveH said:
I like this line of thinking a lot. Knuckleballers are so streaky that for most teams (not the way the sox are constructed if every starter is healthy) they make ideal 5th starters - they can dominate for months at a time which is a massive plus or they can be terrible for months at a time, in which case you're no worse off than the typical 5th starter. As for Workman, he's never struck me as a guy who can go deep into games consistently, but he does seem well-suited to pitching multiple innings out of the bullpen, i.e., go through the lineup just one time.
Puffy said:
Breslow had a shoulder strain last year and didn't join the team until mid-April. It seems the Sox believe a healthier (albeit older) Breslow is the real thing...able to pitch like he did in 2013 after another shoulder injury that sidelined him until early May.
It's interesting to me that both years had Breslow's shoulder out of whack immediately after taking it out of mothballs from the winter. He apparently hasn't experienced anything like that this year.
Felipe Paulino has looked pretty good in his 3 innings of work - I am not sure if he is scheduled to be a starter or in the bullpen in AAA, but he was mostly a starter in his 2 pretty good MLB season, 2011 and 2012, and is someone who may be able to help this season if the Sox keep him around in the Minors.
It looks like Robbie Ross may be the odd man out and replaced not by Layne but by Matt Barnes who could be in line to close at some point with his stuff playing up so well out out of the pen.
Layne is fantastic insurance on Breslow's 2014 not being a result of '13 overuse and a true decline. Wright looks like the new Workman as the latter isn't the same guy he was two years ago. Would he have a designated receiver like Wake did?
Layne is fantastic insurance on Breslow's 2014 not being a result of '13 overuse and a true decline. Wright looks like the new Workman as the latter isn't the same guy he was two years ago. Would he have a designated receiver like Wake did?
HomeRunBaker said:
Can't see the point in having a designated catcher for a reliever/6th starter. Vazquez surely has caught him enough in the minors and Hanigan is no slouch defensively. Either one should be able to handle him just fine.
Saw the O's were dangling Matusz. Might be a good solution to the LH reliever issue if they'd trade in division.
Isn't Barnes also part of the rotation depth? The average MLB team needs 10 starters per year. Also, this rotation could stress the bullpen since there really are no ace quality members who will go 7-8 innings and given the pen a breather.
Not sure what the asking price on Papelbon is. probably too high.
Don't want to over react to Koji's hamstring but he is getting up in age, finished poorly last year and did not look that great his first couple of appearances this spring (yeah I know, its only ST).
Not sure what the asking price on Papelbon is. probably too high.
Don't want to over react to Koji's hamstring but he is getting up in age, finished poorly last year and did not look that great his first couple of appearances this spring (yeah I know, its only ST).
Interesting stuff from the always interesting Breslow. He says he *was* hurting in the 2013 post-season and thereafter.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/18/confident-healthy-craig-breslow-feels-like-his-old-self/PFluP51z4pngn5gVcUBOIM/story.html
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/18/confident-healthy-craig-breslow-feels-like-his-old-self/PFluP51z4pngn5gVcUBOIM/story.html
One team's surplus is another team's need. The Sox match up to acquire a lesser known bullpen arm than the often coveted Craig Kimbrel. With Kimbrel's acquisition by the Padres, they relegated 2 major league ready bullpen arms to the minors today. Quackenbush and Maurer did not overstay their welcomes in San Diego like Middlebrooks did in Boston before he was dealt there. Quackenbush, in particular, is a worthy buy low target to bolster their thinner inventory closer prospects (apart from Barnes) in the upper levels of the Sox organization:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quackke01.shtml
Maurer is no slouch either:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=maurer001bra
Quackenbush looked like he would be the closer for the Padres before the end of this season when Benoit inevitably became hurt or ineffective. They could conceivably match up for a bullpen arm of this quality with one of their prospects in the 11-20 range given the organizational depth for the Sox. IMO the Sox need to trade some of their positional surplus in that range for more major league ready pitching.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quackke01.shtml
Maurer is no slouch either:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=maurer001bra
Quackenbush looked like he would be the closer for the Padres before the end of this season when Benoit inevitably became hurt or ineffective. They could conceivably match up for a bullpen arm of this quality with one of their prospects in the 11-20 range given the organizational depth for the Sox. IMO the Sox need to trade some of their positional surplus in that range for more major league ready pitching.
The problem is that the Padres seem to have little use for younger, emerging talent, preferring guys that will help them win right now. They sent Maurer and Quackenbush down because they don't have room for them on the 25 man, but both figure to play roles for what should be among the best pens in the majors in 2015. To suggest that they might be willing to move one of their pen arms for future value might be reasonable, but Preller is in total GFIN mode, and getting a few prospects for their excess pen arms doesn't seem like his MO at the moment.The Boomer said:
I totally agree that the Red Sox are in a position to improve their pen, and should be looking to do so sooner than later, but I'm not sure the Padres are the team to match up with. I've been beating the drum to chase Kimbrel (and Chapman) for 3 months now, and one of those assets is now off the market. It won't be long until the other one is as well, and I just hope the Red Sox are in the mix when the bidding starts.
jasvlm said:
If there isn't a suitable veteran to improve the hoped for upgrade at ss for the Padres, would a Marrerro plus other considerations proposition interest the Padres in parting with Quackenbush?
April 7, 2015 12:58 pm
Report: Padres searching for upgrade at shortstop
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
The Padres closed out an action-filled offseason by acquiring closer Craig Kimbrel from the Braves Sunday, and it seems as if the team is not done dealing. The Padres are "scouring" the market for an upgrade at shortstop, USA Today reports.
Seven of the team's nine starters on Opening Day were acquired this offseason, including the first five hitters in the lineup and starting pitcher James Shields. The team gave the start at shortstop toClint Barmes, who went 1 for 3 with a double and two strikeouts in the team's 6-3 loss to the Dodgers. Alexi Amarista, who pinch-hit for Barmes late in the game, also figures to see playing time at shortstop if the team can't land an upgrade.
Quackenbush is definitely a binky for me in terms of lining up a potential future closer for the Sox. He saved 6 games with good numbers last season for the Padres and his minor league numbers were insane.
jasvlm said:
I don't think there's any reason to describe the Padres as being in GFIN beyond the fact that their roster got a lot better in a hurry. They've built a team that could be a playoff contender for years with long term pieces in J. Upton, Myers, Alonso, Gyorko, Ross, Cashner, Morrow and Kimbrel as young players with upside or who are already at a superstar level. Kemp is the elder statesman of their core on the offensive side at 30 years old (It's easy to forget how young he is) and if he's healthy, he's a superstar too. Shields is 33.
I think that Preller is likely to listen on any deal that includes a good offer, and I think he'd certainly put some value on restocking the farm a bit to help keep the machine churning as they move through their window, which looks to be 3-4 years long. I don't know if Marrero would be enough to be the center piece, but it also shouldn't cost a Devers, Margot, Rodriqguez or Owens, either. Seems to be a pretty good match for talks, at least.
Edit: Though I will admit that I might be undervaluing Marrero more than is fair here. I'm not sold on his bat at all.
The Padres have proven that they'll do anything to improve their current major league roster. They've dealt prospects without getting many (or any) back in most of the deals they've made, and it seems like that is their motivating drive" improve the 25 man roster in San Diego. They have accumulated some very nice pieces, most of whom they have under control beyond 2015 (aside from J. Upton and Kennedy), so they are building a core of talent there. That said, if anything can be learned it is that PReller is never going to be satisfied with the current state of his crew, and another deal is always around the corner. The sniffing about for a ss upgrade should NOT be viewed as smoke. I don't know that Boston would be willing to move Marerro to get a pen arm, but if they are at all willing to consider such a move, the Padres should jump at the chance to roster Marerro for an asset like Maurer or Quackenbush, either of whom would be no worse than the #2 option behind Koji in 2015, and either of whom could close next year. They are both young and cost controlled, so if Boston feels like X is the man at ss, then Marerro is nothing more than a utility infielder waiting to happen, whose value might better be utilized in trade rather than as a starter at ss. It might just be a fit.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Good god. If BC can pry away a legit shutdown reliever for Deven Marrero he needs to do it yesterday. Marrero has a nice glove but he is not ready for prime time as a hitter and the chances he ever will be are slim. If anyone should jump at this hypothetical deal it's Boston. If the Padres are willing to sacrifice a spot in their lineup and essentially have two pitchers hitting, then sure. Otherwise I think it's highly unlikely that you see a deal where the end result is Marrero being the everyday SS in SD anytime soon. Considering they seem to be throwing defense to the wind I find that hard to foresee. I'd put best odds at Starlin Castro moving to SoCal in the next couple months. If there's a team in baseball that can expend an ML starting quality SS it's the Cubs.
Papelbon's Poutine said:
On the surface this seems like a possibility but there is a chance that the optimum IF for the Cubs before the end of this season could be Castro, 3B, Russell, SS, Baez, 2B, and Rizzo, 1B with Bryant moving to LF. In this scenario, Castro might not be available. Even if he is, Quackenbush or Maurer wouldn't be enough to get him and, after the trade for Kimbrel, it's hard to see how they match up. Marrerro might be more valuable as a prospect SS possibility to the Padres than Quackenbush will be with their loaded bullpen. Something more than Marrerro might be needed to complete this swap but the Sox have the organizational depth to add this piece.
I don't know how the Padres see Marrero, but I doubt it would take much more to get Quackenbush, if that's the target, if Preller does see him as a plug and play option at ss in 2015. They might be willing to tolerate a minimal bat in the lineup if they can be convinced they are upgrading defensively enough to improve the team. By all accounts, Marrero is an elite defender, but the Sox have another glove man at ss lower in the minors to take over that niche for the system in Guerra, and I don't think Marerro would be someone they'd hesitate to move if they feel Quackenbush is a good fit (and they should). With Preller's ambitions, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Padres shooting higher than a Marrero type, but who is going to move a starting ss at this stage of the season? I could very easily envision them kicking the tires on Tulo, because, why not? Still, they might be a better match for a guy like Taylor in Seattle, or Miller, if Seattle sees Taylor as the starter once his wrist heals. Houston could move someone like Marwin Gonzalez very inexpensively, as they've now got Lowrie, and Correa coming. Gonzalez might be a significant upgrade offensively, and he's reasonably sound defensively. HE's also a switch hitter, something the Padres really need (more lefties in the lineup)...The Boomer said:
Marrero would need to hit well in AAA to start the year, but supposing he does, I could see a deal happening. There's certainly a scenario for San Diego where their lineup hits pretty well thanks to the OF and emergence from one of Gyorko, Alonso, or hell even Middlebrooks. At that point, they could view a glove-first SS like Marrero as OK to fill in and not worry about a potential black hole so long as they are a vacuum in the field and present some upside, much like the Tigers viewed Iglesias two years ago.
If we've learned anything about PReller in his short tenure as coach, it is that he'll do anything to improve the current team. I expect that he's going to be in contact with just about every team in baseball. I think he could end up trying to pry one of the Seattle ss (Taylor, once he returns from injury), but I'm not sure what they'd give up. If the Red Sox want one of the Padre relievers, they'd probably have to talk about moving major league ready pieces.jscola85 said: