Bullpen 2015
- Thread starter Sprowl
- Start date
We have too much talent in the minors and not enough spots in the rotation, and ticking clocks to find out what those players can do at the major league level. We also have a roster crunch because of those prospects, which is an impediment to bringing in anybody new. Isn't the obvious answer that we use the available bullpen slots to get more information and more use out of players already on the 40-man at the start of the season, and then look at external options midseason when we have more information about exactly what's necessary?
It's very likely that some players counted on as key contributors will be busts in 2015, and it's also very likely that one or two of the players already on our 40-man will be good enough to earn key roles. That's pretty much the way that bullpens work every year, which is one of the reasons that it's stupid to pay for non-premium talent simply because a reliever is experienced. Similarly, it's easier to quickly cut bait when a rookie struggles for a couple of weeks than when it's a veteran brought in for 2/8 or a similar contract, as we've seen in the past. I suspect that we have enough talent at our disposal that the bullpen will be a strength once it shakes out, and that the most effective use of the resources already on the 40-man is to be willing to spend April finding out which pieces should go in which spots.
Incidentally, this is a question that should be answered IMO anytime somebody suggests a new signing -- who are you planning on taking off the 40-man in order to accommodate them? For a high-end starter or Miller, it's worth losing talent from the end of the roster, but it's probably not worth it to add, say, Pat Neshek (very likely to regress), Sergio Romo, etc. when you combine not just the contract but the useful cost-controlled player that the organization will lose in return for what may well be no upgrade over the best of what we already have on our 40-man. Because of the roster crunch, which gets worse if we do add a couple of high-end starters, we should think about any signing as costing us the equivalent of a sandwich pick, not just a player who received a QO.
It's very likely that some players counted on as key contributors will be busts in 2015, and it's also very likely that one or two of the players already on our 40-man will be good enough to earn key roles. That's pretty much the way that bullpens work every year, which is one of the reasons that it's stupid to pay for non-premium talent simply because a reliever is experienced. Similarly, it's easier to quickly cut bait when a rookie struggles for a couple of weeks than when it's a veteran brought in for 2/8 or a similar contract, as we've seen in the past. I suspect that we have enough talent at our disposal that the bullpen will be a strength once it shakes out, and that the most effective use of the resources already on the 40-man is to be willing to spend April finding out which pieces should go in which spots.
Incidentally, this is a question that should be answered IMO anytime somebody suggests a new signing -- who are you planning on taking off the 40-man in order to accommodate them? For a high-end starter or Miller, it's worth losing talent from the end of the roster, but it's probably not worth it to add, say, Pat Neshek (very likely to regress), Sergio Romo, etc. when you combine not just the contract but the useful cost-controlled player that the organization will lose in return for what may well be no upgrade over the best of what we already have on our 40-man. Because of the roster crunch, which gets worse if we do add a couple of high-end starters, we should think about any signing as costing us the equivalent of a sandwich pick, not just a player who received a QO.
I think there's enough talent there as well, aside from replacing Miller as a relief ace, which I think they'll do.
Ranaudo could probably take Badenhop's role or eat his innings. If he's traded then I could see Wright slotting there.
I'd rather see Rubby in the pen than the rotation until we know if his third pitch is going to be there.
Mujica looked fine from June on, and great in August and September.
Layne is fine. If he can go an inning and hold his own against righties, then he can replace Breslow. That's a question mark though.
I have my concerns about Tazawa (over usage) and Uehara (age) but they should be able to patch together injury replacements.
If Tazawa breaks down, then Rubby may be able to plug that gap. If Uehara goes down, they would have their relief ace or Mujica.
I don't see Webster or Barnes ending up in the pen either way and it wouldn't surprise me if one was traded.
Ranaudo could probably take Badenhop's role or eat his innings. If he's traded then I could see Wright slotting there.
I'd rather see Rubby in the pen than the rotation until we know if his third pitch is going to be there.
Mujica looked fine from June on, and great in August and September.
Layne is fine. If he can go an inning and hold his own against righties, then he can replace Breslow. That's a question mark though.
I have my concerns about Tazawa (over usage) and Uehara (age) but they should be able to patch together injury replacements.
If Tazawa breaks down, then Rubby may be able to plug that gap. If Uehara goes down, they would have their relief ace or Mujica.
I don't see Webster or Barnes ending up in the pen either way and it wouldn't surprise me if one was traded.
I agree with CSteinhardt. We have an abundance of SP (not top of rotation, but depth), we have a 40 man roster crunch, and we have needs in the bullpen. Not to mention, other teams are calling up their power arms and building a dominant bullpen. Take the Cardinals for example, Rosenthal and Martinez were starters converted to bullpen and they went to the WS in their rookie years. Wade Davis was a SP until he got to KC. Even the Red Sox, during their WS year, Workman was a key piece. I am hoping that we can build a dominant bullpen with the pieces we have.
closer: Uehara, backup closer Mujica
top setup: Tazawa (a little worried about overuse), De La Rosa (every time I saw him struggling to get through the lineup a 2nd or 3rd time, I thought to myself "dominant reliever)
bullpen ace: MIller???? or maybe Workman
lefty specialist: Layne looked good last year
rest of bullpen: Wright (long man)
That is 8 names if we can bring Miller back, 7 if not. I also see Barnes (with his great FB and command) breaking in as a bullpen option. Ranaudo didn't look very good in the rotation, but might help Wright with the long relief role. Britton gives you a little more depth. A couple of the young arms may be used in trades for top starters, so we may not have as much depth as I have highlighted here, but the point is that we have some power arms who we may not trust in our rotation, but they could be the key to a very good bullpen without going out and spending crazy money.
closer: Uehara, backup closer Mujica
top setup: Tazawa (a little worried about overuse), De La Rosa (every time I saw him struggling to get through the lineup a 2nd or 3rd time, I thought to myself "dominant reliever)
bullpen ace: MIller???? or maybe Workman
lefty specialist: Layne looked good last year
rest of bullpen: Wright (long man)
That is 8 names if we can bring Miller back, 7 if not. I also see Barnes (with his great FB and command) breaking in as a bullpen option. Ranaudo didn't look very good in the rotation, but might help Wright with the long relief role. Britton gives you a little more depth. A couple of the young arms may be used in trades for top starters, so we may not have as much depth as I have highlighted here, but the point is that we have some power arms who we may not trust in our rotation, but they could be the key to a very good bullpen without going out and spending crazy money.
Heyman and Carfardo just reported that the Red Sox were willing to go 4 years for Miller just not the same guaranteed money. The Astros supposedly had a 3 /39 out for Robertson last week.
If Robertson truly values the years over money might be worth giving him 7 mil per over 4 4 v 28 with a chance to reach Miller's guarantee if he stacks up some games finished when Koji needs a breather or retires.
Robertson get long term commitment good money and big AL East stage as opposed to the Astros. Red Sox I think may lose another pick down in the 4th but their first is protected.
Koji Robertson Tazawa Mujica Workman layne and another lefty ? Would be pretty solid and versatile.
If Robertson truly values the years over money might be worth giving him 7 mil per over 4 4 v 28 with a chance to reach Miller's guarantee if he stacks up some games finished when Koji needs a breather or retires.
Robertson get long term commitment good money and big AL East stage as opposed to the Astros. Red Sox I think may lose another pick down in the 4th but their first is protected.
Koji Robertson Tazawa Mujica Workman layne and another lefty ? Would be pretty solid and versatile.
Robertson is looking for Papelbon money and years. Not sure it would be worth it to the Sox if Miller money was too much. There are other options (fill in name here) that could be added that would not cost as much. There is a solid group presently on the team Uehara, Tazawa. and Mujica (Did I just say that) that needs augmenting.jimbobim said:
Robertson has always been really tough on lefties. If we were willing to go 4/32 on Miller, I don't see why we wouldn't offer that to Robertson. He has a longer and steadier track-record.jimbobim said:
OPS vs. Ls: 2012 - .575 / 2013 - .484 / 2014 - .441
Who cares if we give up a 3rd or 4th rounder or whatever for him?
If he'd accept 4/$36 like Miller I'd be willing to take a shot. I was under the impression, I could be wrong, he was looking for 4/$12.5 which seems a tad too much. I image the Houston offer of 4/$40 would be acceptable. He would certainly take pressure off Uehara and be available when Koji retires.Hee Sox Choi said:
CSteinhardt said:
I made the same point a few days ago in one of these threads. This was the classic Orioles approach in the 60's and 70's. DLR (a possible dominant reliever and foreseeable future closer), Layne, Escobar (for another lefty), Britton (lefty) and whoever from among Ranaudo, Barnes, Workman, Webster, Wilson and Wright does not make the rotation or isn't dealt for a more experienced proven starter are all candidates for the last few bullpen openings.
Bringing Lester back solves a lot of problems but the rumors make it seem like his return was never really going to happen. At this point, he will really need to want to be back in Boston once they set their last competitive (but probably not the highest) bid. If Lester goes, they will continue to groom Rodriguez, Owens (not on 40 man roster) and Johnson (not on the 40) as prospective quality rotation lefties for the future. They will be dealt only if they prefer to include them in a trade for Hamels at some point.
Only Jemile Weeks seems to be a likely 40 man roster drop once Lester or another acquisition must be added. Trades involving anybody from among the 40 man roster untouchables identified yesterday (Papi, Pedroia, Swihart, Vazquez, Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo, Sandoval and Ramirez) make sense. The rest of the sox prospects.com top 10 list (with Swihart as the only untouchable) join everybody else with a little or a lot of major league experience on the trade block to mainly round out the rotation. One from among Owens, Rodriguez and Johnson could be part of a package to get a quality starter in trade.
At this point, though I've strayed far from the bullpen theme, it looks like the best way to round out both the bullpen and the rotation is by a combination of internal tryouts and trades from their roster depth surplus.
Thinking outside the box: what about using some trade chips for Greg Holland?
Ken Rosenthal:
Royals setup man Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland also are attracting trade interest, and it's possible one of them could be traded for a hitter.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/andrew-miller-sergio-romo-luke-gregerson-hot-stove-market-for-other-setup-men-heating-up-120614
Ken Rosenthal:
Royals setup man Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland also are attracting trade interest, and it's possible one of them could be traded for a hitter.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/andrew-miller-sergio-romo-luke-gregerson-hot-stove-market-for-other-setup-men-heating-up-120614
Holland has two years of control left and is likely to get relatively expensive. He has the saves to make money in arbitration and you're looking at probably paying him around 2/18 (WAG).RedOctober3829 said:
Plus, you're probably giving someone relatively good for the right to do that (though I suppose you get a draft pick after 2016, or you can trade him if you're out of the race).
Is that too much different than just giving Miller 4/$40 with no player or pick compensation? Is Holland that much better or predictable going forward? I don't see it.
Tyler Clippard is also said to be available
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/andrew-miller-sergio-romo-luke-gregerson-hot-stove-market-for-other-setup-men-heating-up-120614
And now that we've been beaten for Miller they need to acquire another set up man, otherwise Taz is going to get another 63 innings with Mujica as his back up. Nobody wants that.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/andrew-miller-sergio-romo-luke-gregerson-hot-stove-market-for-other-setup-men-heating-up-120614
In a vacuum? Yes, I'd Holland in a heartbeat.Toe Nash said:
And now that we've been beaten for Miller they need to acquire another set up man, otherwise Taz is going to get another 63 innings with Mujica as his back up. Nobody wants that.
Holland would be brought in to close. Koji can then be used as a relief ace in whatever part of the game he is most needed and doesn't have to be overused in every closing situation. Tazawa, Uehara, and Holland is a very good back end.Rudy Pemberton said:
Holland is exactly the kind of guy the Red Sox should be targeting with their prospect surplus. Since they weren't going to pay Miller, it's very unlikely they would give up a good pick for the right to pay more for Robertson.
The Royals need a 1B or DH with Willingham retiring or a RF. Wondering if the Sox ate some of Nap's contract and added Johnson if that would get it done. The only thing the Royals lacked was power last year.
The Royals need a 1B or DH with Willingham retiring or a RF. Wondering if the Sox ate some of Nap's contract and added Johnson if that would get it done. The only thing the Royals lacked was power last year.
I just don't like Cherington's track record in trading for relievers so far. Hopefully it'll turn around, but I'd rather give our prospects the chance to relieve.
Not looking for any stupid trade proposals, but what's the precedent on the cost of acquiring a top set-up man with one year left on his contract?
The Nationals are “likely” to trade setup man Tyler Clippard, a source tells FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Clippard will earn $9.3MM in his final year (from MLBT).
Clippard is Andrew Miller-expensive for one year and he's very good. Can you think of any RP that has been valued similarly, dealt and what was the return?
The Nationals are “likely” to trade setup man Tyler Clippard, a source tells FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Clippard will earn $9.3MM in his final year (from MLBT).
Clippard is Andrew Miller-expensive for one year and he's very good. Can you think of any RP that has been valued similarly, dealt and what was the return?
But...why?MakMan44 said:
It seems agreed he'd cost a decent amount in prospects or players to acquire him. Yes, he's been very good. 1.83 FIP over his last 3 seasons. But Miller has a 2.37 FIP over his last 3. Robertson is a 2.59. We're talking just a couple runs difference over a season. For the playoffs yeah Holland is great to have, but you can always trade for relievers mid-season if you are in playoff position (see Miller) and you have a better idea that they're going to be helpful than you do right now.
I think they should acquire someone who they can reasonably project for a sub-3 ERA in 60+ IP, but I don't know why they should send good players for that guy when he's not under team control for a while or has an undervalued contract. They'd be buying high on a guy coming off a deep playoff run who can't reasonably be expected to keep it up at near the same level.
I argued for signing Miller but that would just cost money. I don't want to give up good prospects or good picks for a reliever. They should be looking elsewhere on the FA market or for a lesser trade target like Bastardo.
Holland has been an impact 2-3 win reliever the past three years because of his ridiculous k rate. He is an absolute stud relief ace, 2nd to maybe Kimbrel or Ue in the recent past. They would have him for two years before free agency. He's worth giving up pieces for because they have an overflowing 40 man roster and players need to go somewhere. If the cost is prohibitive then that's one thing, but teams do stupid things over deadline deals and the Red Sox aren't under that time pressure.Toe Nash said:
Because in a vacuum he's been a better pitcher than Miller over the last 4 years. You're adding in acquisition costs, I wasn't.Toe Nash said:
You asked if Holland would be better or more reliable than Miller. I think he will be, his track record suggest so and all things being equal, of course I take Holland over Miller.
MakMan44 said:
Miller's potential as a reliever is better judged by his relief appearances -- that is, over the last three years. His failures as a starter in 2011, with more complicated mechanics, more moving parts and more pitches, are not good predictors of his performance going forward. An ERA+ trendline of 127, 158, 193 is, for lack of a better term, fükken awesome.
Holland is awesome too, but he is right-handed and will cost prospects. If the Red Sox spend prospects on a reliever, a lefty should provide better value.
MakMan44 said:
I don't think that a front-line, high-leverage free-agent LH reliever should be the Red Sox goal -- a modest improvement on Layne should be enough, given the team's investment in Uehara and ample right-handed depth. P91 mentioned Downs and Affeldt as the kind of trade target for a Miller fallback, and I think that is the right scope: just so long as the acquisition can handle the occasional LRL sequence, the rest of the bullpen will fall into place.
Jared Carrabis @Jared_Carrabis 2m2 minutes ago
Per @Sean_McAdam, Red Sox and Phillies "have made progress" on a Antonio Bastardo for Sean Coyle trade. Bastardo would replace Miller in BP.
Per @Sean_McAdam, Red Sox and Phillies "have made progress" on a Antonio Bastardo for Sean Coyle trade. Bastardo would replace Miller in BP.
Bastardo had a BB9 of 4.8 last year. That's atrocious. He strikes enough guys out to offset it a little, but man that would be really tough to watch from a reliever in high leverage situations.
Bastardo's ERA/xFIP are all over the map the last 4 years. His FIP has been pretty steady though as well as his K/9 and BB/9. Not the first guy I would think of as a set up LHP but going by his 2014 splits, he certainly looks like a guy who can pitch to both LHH & RHH. For just Coyle, I think it would be a pretty solid deal.
Corsi said:
He made $2mm last season, compared with Miller's $1.9mm. Based on Bastardo's performance last year, I can't imagine him getting a huge bump, so a nominal increase in payroll relative to last season.
MakMan44 said:
Not sure how I feel about him then. His numbers seem to be all over the place and that steroid issue doesn't help his case.
Coyle is a nice piece but he wasn't going to move the needle in any significant trade, I think. If he can bring back a reliever like Bastardo, who can pitch to both lefties and righties, that's probably a nice return. I agree with DDB that his walk rate is a bit higher than I'm comfortable with, but I'd be pretty happy with the return.The Celtbot said:
Then again, I don't have a big issue with known steroid users but I feel like that's an issue for another thread anyway.
Looking at his performance, he appears to oscillate between excellent and league average year after year, a la Beckett. His poor 2012 looks to be partly due to a fluky HR rate of 12.5% and a little bit higher BABIP. His awesome 2011 was likely aided by a ridiculous .179 BABIP over 58 innings. He has no clear platoon split, although pitches slightly better to lefties as expected. At worst he's 6/7 inning bullpen filler, and at best he turns into a reliable setup man. For the cost of Coyle, I take that risk.
MakMan44 said:
I think that's the key feature that makes Bastardo a viable LH reliever for the Red Sox -- while he's not a dominating reliever like Miller, he can face LRL stretches without reducing his manager and teammates to conniptions. Neither Layne nor Britton can give that assurance.
Bastardo career OPS vLH .621, v RH .644.
While Bastardo's control looks a bit suspect, let's remember the guy he's more or less supposed to be replacing only had a single year with an MLB BB/9 < 4.4 (last year's 2.45).
I like Bastardo a lot. His splits as shown above are even and it helps in the East to have a lefty that can punch out hitters. I believe Farrell could tweak one or two things and get him to be a competent Miller replacement. But my question is does anyone really believe Amaro would settle for just Coyle? It was probably discussed, Amaro probably asked for Betts and was promptly hung up on. I'm interested in seeing some internal options for a lefty. Escobar might be an option.Sprowl said:
Cross these two guys off the list
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 34s34 seconds ago
The Houston #Astros, who tried to sign Andrew Miller and David Robertson, now closing in on Pat Neshek after Gregerson"s $18.5 million deal
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 34s34 seconds ago
The Houston #Astros, who tried to sign Andrew Miller and David Robertson, now closing in on Pat Neshek after Gregerson"s $18.5 million deal
Not many high tier guys on the FA front left. Romo, and maybe Grilli and Motte are about it. I'd take Badenhop back at this point on the relative cheap.
Teams are probably lining up for Clippard and Chapman. It makes a little more sense now that Bastardo is in play.
Teams are probably lining up for Clippard and Chapman. It makes a little more sense now that Bastardo is in play.
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 7s7 seconds ago
Sergio Romo's market is starting to heat up. #Dodgers, #yankees and #redsox all have interest.
Sergio Romo's market is starting to heat up. #Dodgers, #yankees and #redsox all have interest.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 17s17 seconds ago
Source: #Pirates close to acquiring Bastardo from #Phillies. First mentioned: @RobertMurrayMLB
Source: #Pirates close to acquiring Bastardo from #Phillies. First mentioned: @RobertMurrayMLB
