Bullpen 2015

Hee Sox Choi · Dec 10, 2014

Carmen Fanzone said:
Olney retweeting: Phillies trade Antonio Bastardo to Pirates for Joely Rodriguez.

23 year old in AA with a 4.90 K/9, not on anyone's top 20 lists. Sean Coyle would have blown this out of the water, leading me to believe that we never offered him for Bastardo.

Joely:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa507216&position=P

nattysez · Dec 10, 2014

Hee Sox Choi said:
23 year old in AA with a 4.90 K/9, not on anyone's top 20 lists. Sean Coyle would have blown this out of the water, leading me to believe that we never offered him for Bastardo.

Joely:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa507216&position=P

Sox may have wanted more than just Bastardo for Coyle and Phillies refused.

There've been a few rumors about the Sox being interested in Romo. I'd be pretty worried about giving Romo any kind of significant commitment. The guy is a ROOGY and completely lost the plot for an extended period this year. He's a one-pitch pitcher -- if his no-dot slider is not working, he's throwing batting practice. I also feel like he benefited quite a bit from pitching in AT&T, but that may be selective memory of loud outs.

Corsi · Dec 10, 2014

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Sources: #Nationals in active discussions with multiple clubs on both Clippard, Detwiler.

gammoseditor · Dec 10, 2014

nattysez said:
Sox may have wanted more than just Bastardo for Coyle and Phillies refused.

There've been a few rumors about the Sox being interested in Romo. I'd be pretty worried about giving Romo any kind of significant commitment. The guy is a ROOGY and completely lost the plot for an extended period this year. He's a one-pitch pitcher -- if his no-dot slider is not working, he's throwing batting practice. I also feel like he benefited quite a bit from pitching in AT&T, but that may be selective memory of loud outs.

Lefties hit .245/.306/.388 off him over the last three years. That's not great but it's not like you need to pull him just because a lefty is up. I also heard on the radio that he had the lowest WHIP out of any reliever with over 300 innings.

The Boomer · Dec 10, 2014

The Sox will have 2 open roster spots after the Miley trade. While everyone will want them to break the bank to bring in free agents for those spots, the Rule V draft is tomorrow. I was looking at eligible players and found a lefty bullpen arm with a nice K-BB ratio in the minors who has reached AA. He has been a reliever his entire career but ought to be relatively mature as an age 24 former college player with good size. A player like this could conceivably make the leap to a major league bullpen. While it was a no brainer for Theo to prefer Lester on the Cubs 40 man roster, here is my candidate for a Rule V flyer with potential to stick on the 25 man roster if he shows potential to fill a lefty bullpen role in spring training:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mckira000and

With the Sox prospect depth, it's possible that they could send someone to the Cubs in order to send him back to the minors rather than return him to the Cubs.

sackamano · Dec 10, 2014

Good call Boom

Doctor G · Dec 11, 2014

Badenhop won't be out there forever at the rate that teams are picking up BP pieces. I prefer him to more homer prone alternatives.

grimshaw · Dec 11, 2014

Maybe the Sox move one of those guys and something else for Chapman? The Reds need a cheaper starter now.

Monbo Jumbo · Dec 11, 2014

Sprowl said:
Updating. The competition for the Justin Thomas Award got winnowed a little.

With five groundball specialists in the rotation, the Fenway infield snakes are going to get quite a workout in 2015.

Steven Wright will be on the staff. The expanded strike zone has increased the value of his knuckleball, which he throws for strikes.

oumbi · Dec 11, 2014

Monbo Jumbo said:
Steven Wright will be on the staff. The expanded strike zone has increased the value of his knuckleball, which he throws for strikes.

And for whatever a super sss is worth, in terms of ground balls in 2014:

Steve Wright
IP = 21
GB = 34
GB/FG Ratio = 2.83

Porcello
IP = 204.2
GB = 328
GB/FB Ratio = 1.8

If this sss holds up, Wright might produce a large number of ground balls as well.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/pitching-ground-balls-allowed-leaders/2014/

EDIT: added link.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 11, 2014

If the strategy they've taken with their starting rotation is any indication, I would expect them to try to wrap up Badenhop. What would it take? 2/10?

Corsi · Dec 11, 2014

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 34s34 seconds ago
Breslow market getting interesting. Has had recent dialogue with Cubs. Other teams showing interest include Red Sox, Mets

Hee Sox Choi · Dec 11, 2014

Corsi said:
Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 34s34 seconds ago
Breslow market getting interesting. Has had recent dialogue with Cubs. Other teams showing interest include Red Sox, Mets

We're just doing a bro a solid, right? We're not really going to re-sign him, right? RIGHT?!?!

The guy was horrible last year and there's no reason to bring him back. Stick him in the analytics department but please don't let him pitch.

67WasBest · Dec 11, 2014

Eh, he suffered a post season hangover like so many others. Felt for him the way I felt for Foulke after he gave everything for 2004. Guy gave it all and got us some huge outs, then got pilloried when he ran out of gas.

I can see him back here, but think someone else will pay him more.

benhogan · Dec 11, 2014

No on Breslow and please move Mujica... use the savings on signing Badenhop.

Lets keep our infielders on their toes all game.

pjheff · Dec 12, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
If the strategy they've taken with their starting rotation is any indication, I would expect them to try to wrap up Badenhop. What would it take? 2/10?

I'm kind of wondering if we'll see more the opposite. If our rotation is full of sinker/slider guys who induce ground balls, I wouldn't be surprised if the bullpen is constructed largely of four seamer/wipeout pitcher (curve/change/split) guys who get strikeouts.

lxt · Dec 14, 2014

pjheff said:
I'm kind of wondering if we'll see more the opposite. If our rotation is full of sinker/slider guys who induce ground balls, I wouldn't be surprised if the bullpen is constructed largely of four seamer/wipeout pitcher (curve/change/split) guys who get strikeouts.

I was thinking along the same lines. Just about the time the batters settles in on the rhythm of the starter out comes a reliever who is throwing flamers and pounding the strike zone. Uehara & Tazawa are control pitchers with power so they fit the profile a bit.

Savin Hillbilly said:
If the strategy they've taken with their starting rotation is any indication, I would expect them to try to wrap up Badenhop. What would it take? 2/10?

Adding Badenhop would be nice opposite starts by Buchholz or Kelly.

benhogan said:
No on Breslow and please move Mujica... use the savings on signing Badenhop.

Lets keep our infielders on their toes all game.

Agree. Breslow has lost what he brought to the Sox in 2013 and I'm still trying to figure out the Mujica signing.

Will be interesting as BC fills out the plan and shows us what his thinking is.

soxhop411 · Dec 15, 2014

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman 18m18 minutes ago
The #Braves are expected to DFA Anthony Varvaro to create a roster spot for Alberto Callaspo

MLB.com's Mark Bowman reports that the Braves plan to designate Anthony Varvaro for assignment when their deal with Alberto Callaspo becomes official.
Varvaro, 30, holds a 2.99 ERA over 153 relief appearances for the Braves over the last four seasons, so he figures to draw some interest on waivers. He posted a 2.63 mark with 50 strikeouts over 54 2/3 frames last season. Dec 15 - 6:15 PM

ROTO

MakMan44 · Dec 15, 2014

I was coming here to post that.

Posted a strong K-BB% last season, which led to a 87 FIP- and a 85 xFIP-

I don't know if he'll keep it up next season, but certainly worth taking the chance to find out. Strange that they're just willing to dump him.

lxt · Dec 15, 2014

He has been officially DFA.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/braved-designate-anthony-varvaro.html

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 15, 2014

His velocity kind of cratered in September. Is it possible there's something physically wrong and that's why the Braves are letting him go?

MakMan44 · Dec 15, 2014

That's a good catch Savin. I haven't heard anything about an injury, but that would explain why the Braves are getting rid of him.

foulkehampshire · Dec 16, 2014

Brian Wilson just got DFA'd by the Dodgers. Bionic arm (2x TJS) aside, he still showed some velocity last year before tailing off at the end of the season. If the Sox are serious about blowing past the cap he could be an interesting target, as they could absorb the 9.5 mil he's owed. Fairly high bust potential, though.

ookami7m · Dec 16, 2014

foulkehampshire said:
Brian Wilson just got DFA'd by the Dodgers. Bionic arm (2x TJS) aside, he still showed some velocity last year before tailing off at the end of the season. If the Sox are serious about blowing past the cap he could be an interesting target, as they could absorb the 9.5 mil he's owed for little no in talent. Fairly high bust potential, though.

Why would the sox claim him for the 9.5MM contract instead of wait and sign him 11 days from now (assuming there is interest)? I doubt any team is going to claim that contract off the waivers.

foulkehampshire · Dec 16, 2014

ookami7m said:
Why would the sox claim him for the 9.5MM contract instead of wait and sign him 11 days from now (assuming there is interest)? I doubt any team is going to claim that contract off the waivers.

Fair point. I meant to edit that out.

grimshaw · Dec 16, 2014

I can't believe Brian Wilson is only 32 . . .
No thanks on that guy, though. He's had a walk rate of over 5 batters per 9 his last two healthy seasons.
I'm still thinking they'll make trades for relievers as the FA market is drying up outside of Romo and one or two others.
He'll still get a few major league contract offers.

Corsi · Dec 17, 2014

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 35s35 seconds ago
Wright signing by Orioles will be for around $1.7 million. Not a lot of lefty relievers on market. Breslow might be trending to Red Sox

grimshaw · Dec 17, 2014

Corsi said:
Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 35s35 seconds ago
Wright signing by Orioles will be for around $1.7 million. Not a lot of lefty relievers on market. Breslow might be trending to Red Sox

I like that Rob Bradford apparently has no idea that Craig Breslow isn't a LOOGY.

curly2 · Dec 17, 2014

grimshaw said:
I like that Rob Bradford apparently has no idea that Craig Breslow isn't a LOOGY.

Where does he say that? He just refers to "lefty relievers," and Breslow is indisputably one.

I'm with Rudy. I'd do Breslow on a minor-league deal. Relievers can be so volatile, it wouldn't surprise me to see Breslow be a lot better in 2015 -- though not as good as he was in 2013.

If the Mets give him a major-league deal, he should (and probably would) take it. Otherwise, the Sox should offer him a minor-league deal with an early-season opt-out if he doesn't make the major-league roster.

grimshaw · Dec 17, 2014

curly2 said:
Where does he say that? He just refers to "lefty relievers," and Breslow is indisputably one.

I'm with Rudy. I'd do Breslow on a minor-league deal. Relievers can be so volatile, it wouldn't surprise me to see Breslow be a lot better in 2015 -- though not as good as he was in 2013.

If the Mets give him a major-league deal, he should (and probably would) take it. Otherwise, the Sox should offer him a minor-league deal with an early-season opt-out if he doesn't make the major-league roster.

I'm reading his tweet to imply they ought to sign Breslow just to have a lefty in a pen, but the lack of them out there should have no bearing on whether Breslow is re-signed.

They don't need Craig Breslow just because the left handed relief market is drying up.

GaryPeters71 · Dec 17, 2014

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Source: #RedSox acquiring RHP Anthony Varvaro from #Braves. Had been designated for assignment.

Link to his stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/varvaan01.shtml

phenweigh · Dec 17, 2014

His stats look pretty good for a middle reliever. There may be concern about a late season drop in velocity as the reason for the Braves DFA. He has quite a few appearances the last two seasons, so the velocity drop could be due to abuse. I assume the Sox are able to do a medical before the transaction is official.

oumbi · Dec 17, 2014

phenweigh said:
His stats look pretty good for a middle reliever. There may be concern about a late season drop in velocity as the reason for the Braves DFA. He has quite a few appearances the last two seasons, so the velocity drop could be due to abuse. I assume the Sox are able to do a medical before the transaction is official.

Some answers to this, as well as other jewels, are available already in this thread:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/87174-sox-acquire-rhp-anthony-varvaro-from-braves-for-rhp-aaron-kurcz-and-cash/

The Boomer · Dec 17, 2014

grimshaw said:
I'm reading his tweet to imply they ought to sign Breslow just to have a lefty in a pen, but the lack of them out there should have no bearing on whether Breslow is re-signed.

They don't need Craig Breslow just because the left handed relief market is drying up.

Escobar and maybe Britton can fill this role at minimum cost. Breslow on a minor league deal is fine. Escobar, after a slow start, has been lights out as a winter ball reliever recently. He and Hembree (a solid return for the expiring contract of Peavy) might both make the bullpen and the acquisition of cost controlled Varvaro is a coup. It looks like the Sox won't and don't need to do much more to complete their bullpen. They probably and smartly won't spend significantly more on it now. Tryouts for their own youngsters, possibly including conversions of upper level starters like Barnes and Ranaudo, is a plus for everyone in the organization. Additional veteran relievers are relatively easily come by later in the season if the need arises.

grimshaw · Dec 17, 2014

The Boomer said:
Escobar and maybe Britton can fill this role at minimum cost. Breslow on a minor league deal is fine. Escobar, after a slow start, has been lights out as a winter ball reliever recently. He and Hembree (a solid return for the expiring contract of Peavy) might both make the bullpen and the acquisition of cost controlled Varvaro is a coup. It looks like the Sox won't and don't need to do much more to complete their bullpen. They probably and smartly won't spend significantly more on it now. Tryouts for their own youngsters, possibly including conversions of upper level starters like Barnes and Ranaudo, is a plus for everyone in the organization. Additional veteran relievers are relatively easily come by later in the season if the need arises.

Layne looked fine too. That's probably his job to lose. And I think others will get a chance during the year due to injuries.
If I had to guess, I don't think they go into the season as Varvaro replacing Miller's role necessarily. I think they've got one more move.
Hembree didn't show a whole lot in AAA or Boston, so I'm not sure he'll win a role. He's been really wild (23 bb in 55 IP last year).

Max Venerable · Dec 17, 2014

I think Varvaro is taking Workman's spot.

Workman has been really good in the post season, 7 scoreless innings there, which I think makes us all think of him (as fans) in a better light than we probably should. Otherwise he has been fairly crappy.

Given the overall balanced way that this team seems to be approaching their pitching, Varvaro seems like a better fit for the bullpen to me based on track record and potential situations (given that we don't have a shut down LHP like Miller at the moment, and he deals well to lefties). Workman is getting a bit old to really think of as a prospect, but perhaps some time in Pawtucket in a regular rotational slot is still the best thing for him to build value or prepare for an inevitable opening in the ML rotation due to injury/shittyness.

Again, very happy with Ben's ability to construct a roster as an organism this year.

Green Monster · Dec 17, 2014

Baring trades and/or injuries I'm thinking the bullpen looks something like this:

Uehara
Tazawa
Varvaro
Mujica
Workman
Escobar/Layne/Britton

Only one lefty but Varvaro's reverse split gives them another option against lefties.

Corsi · Dec 17, 2014

Had been some talk the Sox were interested in Romo

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 11m11 minutes ago
Sources: Romo, #SFGiants in agreement on two-year, $15M deal

The Boomer · Dec 17, 2014

Something interesting I noticed looking at the performance trend for recent acquisitions, Zeke Spruill and Anthony Varvaro, was that their K/BB ratios hit a new level for the first time last season. 3.85 for Varvaro and 3.50 for Spruill between AAA and Arizona.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/varvaan01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spruize01.shtml

Zeke had an insignificant ML sss but in AAA PCL, despite his inflated ERA, his K/BB there was 3.38.

The Sox sacrificed only spare parts to acquire both late maturing relievers but this might be another market inefficiency identified by Sox management. The price for established relievers seems wastefully inflated. However, lesser known relievers with favorable performance spikes and under team control for a few years might be an undervalued commodity, particularly because these two were DFA by their former teams.

RIrooter09 · Dec 17, 2014

Green Monster said:
Baring trades and/or injuries I'm thinking the bullpen looks something like this:

Uehara
Tazawa
Varvaro
Mujica
Workman
Escobar/Layne/Britton

Only one lefty but Varvaro's reverse split gives them another option against lefties.

I think they'll go with 7 relievers, so I could see two of the Escobar/Layne/Britton group getting a shot.

vadertime · Dec 17, 2014

If they go with 7 RP I think Spruill will be the last guy, since he has options and they'll need to have a reliever with options so they can someone down during times they need an extra bench player. In that case Layne and Britton would be battling for one spot.

Mighty Joe Young · Dec 17, 2014

When was the last time the RedSox didn't carry at least 7 relievers for an extended time? 1980s ?

ConigsCorner · Dec 17, 2014

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
When was the last time the RedSox didn't carry at least 7 relievers for an extended time? 1980s ?

True, I'm guessing that there will be 7 bullpen arms and 4 bench guys. There's really not much left for Cherington to do: backup catcher and maybe another lefthander to compete with Britton and Layne. Projected bench: backup C, Holt, Nava, & Victorino. I think Craig will be dealt in spring training with the Sox picking up about half of his future salary.

Merkle's Boner · Dec 17, 2014

I would really like to see them use at least one spot for one of the young righties, preferably Barnes. I think we need to find out whether Barnes, Ranaudo, and Workman have ML futures, and it doesn't look like there will be a full-time slot for them in the rotation.

Youks Baltic Roots · Dec 17, 2014

RIrooter09 said:
I think they'll go with 7 relievers, so I could see two of the Escobar/Layne/Britton group getting a shot.

Agreed on the seven pitchers, and the last two coming from a group - I will just add that Spruill will likely be given a shot in that group as well.

The Celtbot · Dec 17, 2014

What do people realistically expect from Mujica this year?

MakMan44 · Dec 18, 2014

The Celtbot said:
What do people realistically expect from Mujica this year?

I think his streamer line is pretty fair. ~7 K/9 ~2 BB/9 high 3 ERA & FIP. It's basically a repeat of his 2014.

Rasputin · Dec 18, 2014

The Celtbot said:
What do people realistically expect from Mujica this year?

I wanna not cringe when he comes into a high level situation.

Bullpen 2015

Member

Member

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

also had a stroke

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Member

Hates the crockpot

Member

loves the secret sauce

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

Member

Concierge

Granite Truther

Member

New Member

news aggravator

stole corsi's dream

New Member

loves the secret sauce

stole corsi's dream

hillbilly suburbanite

Well-Known Member

hillbilly suburbanite

Member

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

Member

Member

Member

New Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

done galavanting around Lebanon

Member

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

Well-Known Member

Alvin

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Member

The North remembers

Member

Member

Member

New Member

stole corsi's dream

Will outlive SeanBerry