Bullpen 2015

[Comebacker to Foulke]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mujiced01&year=2014&t=p
 
Mujica was knocked around a bit in close games last year, .972 OPS against in tie games, .815 in games within a run.

 

[Drek717]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mujiced01&year=2014&t=p
 
Mujica was knocked around a bit in close games last year, .972 OPS against in tie games, .815 in games within a run.

He had a 0.84 ERA and a 0.938 WHIP in save situations last year.
 
He had a .724 OPS against in BB's "late and close" grouping and a .528 OPS against in 2 out, RISP ABs.
 
He had a .664 OPS against in BB's "high leverage" situations and a .612 OPS against in "medium leverage" situations.  His OPS against ballooned to .855 in "low leverage" appearances.
 
It's quite obvious to me the problem here is that Mujica isn't the closer, right?
 
So just how much are you guys going to nitpick a reliever's situational stats for a single year?  Surely you have some real world axes that are in greater need of sharpening than the one you're all carrying for a reliever making a whopping $5M next year with no commitment beyond that.  He's cheap, he's got no long term commitment, and he's a reasonable bet to produce some solid relief innings.  Can't ask for much more from a reliever, given how volatile they tend to be.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

I was just trying to suggest to the previous poster where his impression of Mujica's unreliability in "high level" spots may have been formed from.

 

[benhogan]

He had a 0.84 ERA and a 0.938 WHIP in save situations last year.
 
He had a .724 OPS against in BB's "late and close" grouping and a .528 OPS against in 2 out, RISP ABs.
 
He had a .664 OPS against in BB's "high leverage" situations and a .612 OPS against in "medium leverage" situations.  His OPS against ballooned to .855 in "low leverage" appearances.
 
It's quite obvious to me the problem here is that Mujica isn't the closer, right?
 
So just how much are you guys going to nitpick a reliever's situational stats for a single year?  Surely you have some real world axes that are in greater need of sharpening than the one you're all carrying for a reliever making a whopping $5M next year with no commitment beyond that.  He's cheap, he's got no long term commitment, and he's a reasonable bet to produce some solid relief innings.  Can't ask for much more from a reliever, given how volatile they tend to be.

I'll go back to what started this Mujica hijack...
 
would you rather have Mujica at roughly 5MM?
 
OR
 
trade Mujica and use that 5MM to sign Badenhop?
 
I thought Badenhop did a much better job then Mujica, and would rather have Blake sharing the 6th and 7th inning with a lefty.

 

[Drek717]

I'll go back to what started this Mujica hijack...
 
would you rather have Mujica at roughly 5MM?
 
OR
 
trade Mujica and use that 5MM to sign Badenhop?
 
I thought Badenhop did a much better job then Mujica, and would rather have Blake sharing the 6th and 7th inning with a lefty.

1. Who's Blake?
 
2. I'd argue the Sox picked up Badenhop circa 2008 when they got Zeke Spruill from the Diamondbacks.
 
3. Mujica has been a late innings reliever before.  Badenhop never has.  That does actually have value.  Not predictive value, but trade value.  Who gets more at the deadline we have one pitching lights out while the rest of the club is scuffling, the guy with 49 career saves or the guy with 4 and never more than one in a single season?
 
4. Mujica has better career WHIP, BB/9, K/9 and an idential H/9 to Badenhop.
 
5. Badenhop had a freakishly low HR/9 last season of 0.1.  The two previous years he was 0.9.  I have no desire to bet on that horseshoe staying in his colon for another season.
 
6. Mujica, when pitching right, doesn't walk people.  He was in the single digits each of the three seasons prior to 2014.  He walked four guys in his first 10 appearances last season, but only 10 after that in his next 54 appearances.
 
7. They're likely a classic "six of one/half dozen of another" scenario.  Given that Badenhop is a year older and might actually get a two year deal or a bit more than $5M (which is starting to look like peanuts for even the reliever market) I don't see any reason to expend the effort just to get Mujica off the team.  He isn't going to return anything of legitimate value at this time.

 

[benhogan]

1. Who's Blake?
 
2. I'd argue the Sox picked up Badenhop circa 2008 when they got Zeke Spruill from the Diamondbacks.
 
3. Mujica has been a late innings reliever before.  Badenhop never has.  That does actually have value.  Not predictive value, but trade value.  Who gets more at the deadline we have one pitching lights out while the rest of the club is scuffling, the guy with 49 career saves or the guy with 4 and never more than one in a single season?
 
4. Mujica has better career WHIP, BB/9, K/9 and an idential H/9 to Badenhop.
 
5. Badenhop had a freakishly low HR/9 last season of 0.1.  The two previous years he was 0.9.  I have no desire to bet on that horseshoe staying in his colon for another season.
 
6. Mujica, when pitching right, doesn't walk people.  He was in the single digits each of the three seasons prior to 2014.  He walked four guys in his first 10 appearances last season, but only 10 after that in his next 54 appearances.
 
7. They're likely a classic "six of one/half dozen of another" scenario.  Given that Badenhop is a year older and might actually get a two year deal or a bit more than $5M (which is starting to look like peanuts for even the reliever market) I don't see any reason to expend the effort just to get Mujica off the team.  He isn't going to return anything of legitimate value at this time.

1. Burke, apologies for the confusion
 
your point #3 and #7 contradict one another
 
Sounds like you're happy with what we have, so I'll put you down for Mujica over Badenhop for 2015.    Fair enough.

 

[nattysez]

Craig Breslow decision coming down between Cubs and Red Sox
 

 
Via Twitter.  
 
What can we do to ensure that he winds up on the Cubs?

 

[mBiferi]

Jesus, Theo wants any player that has been on the Red Sox the last few years.
 
Lester, Ross, Lavarnway, Breslow, Doubront, Rizzo, Sweeney....

 

[djhb20]

It's worked for the A's. Seems like a tried and true strategy.

 

[amfox1]

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo  2m2 minutes ago
Breslow signing with Red Sox for $2 mill one year

 

[67WasBest]

That sets the roster other than a potential #1

 

[RedOctober3829]

Gammo tweets that Mitchell Boggs has been signed by the Red Sox.

 

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 34s34 seconds ago
Mitchell Boggs interesting Red Sox signing
 

https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/552191425610530816
 
https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/552191767295303680

 

[The Boomer]

It's a small move but the Sox signed this age 26 lefty who might be starting to harness his control:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hoffma002mat&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.mlbtraderumors.com
 
It's just a AAA depth signing but a good risk if he is a late blooming lefty just figuring out how to pitch.  OTOH he might be exactly where he was two years ago with the Tigers:
 
http://www.blessyouboys.com/2012/12/4/3725248/the-detroit-tigers-prospect-report-top-50-prospects-countdown-no-45
 
A lefty reliever who throws this hard might stick for a while in the majors if he throws strikes.  He is another GB pitcher too who was recovered off the injury scrap heap:
 
http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/03/03/twinsights-matt-hoffman-making-comeback-from-serious-back-condition/

 

[jimbobim]

What would it take to convince the rebuilding Braves to send us Kimbrel ? If they're thinking long term maybe Denvers the blocked Cechinni or on the lesser end JBJ who would only need to outperform BJ Upton to get his GG in their lineup ? Hell Craig to rebuild his value over in the NL again. 
 
Just think him and Koji for the 8th and 9th would be pretty dominant and shorten games ...

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What would it take to convince the rebuilding Braves to send us Kimbrel ? If they're thinking long term maybe Denvers the blocked Cechinni or on the lesser end JBJ who would only need to outperform BJ Upton to get his GG in their lineup ? Hell Craig to rebuild his value over in the NL again. 
 
Just think him and Koji for the 8th and 9th would be pretty dominant and shorten games ...

 
I'd bet it will take more than that.  All reports indicate they don't want to move him, which lends to the notion that they want to be bowled over by an offer.  Some combination of Devers, Cecchini, JBJ and Craig (maybe even all four) probably isn't in "bowling them over" territory.

 

[gryoung]

I hope the Sox take a long look inside the organization for a closer-type as opposed to trading prospects for one.  I've heard Barnes' name mentioned as a potential closer - apparently his stuff is closer-worthy.  Maybe we see this in spring training.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
I'd bet it will take more than that.  All reports indicate they don't want to move him, which lends to the notion that they want to be bowled over by an offer.  Some combination of Devers, Cecchini, JBJ and Craig (maybe even all four) probably isn't in "bowling them over" territory.

 
I rather think the Sox would decline that trade .. all that for a part-time player? 

 

[Rasputin]

 
I'd bet it will take more than that.  All reports indicate they don't want to move him, which lends to the notion that they want to be bowled over by an offer.  Some combination of Devers, Cecchini, JBJ and Craig (maybe even all four) probably isn't in "bowling them over" territory.

 
I wouldn't make that trade in a billion years.

 

[MalzoneExpress]

 
I'd bet it will take more than that.  All reports indicate they don't want to move him, which lends to the notion that they want to be bowled over by an offer.  Some combination of Devers, Cecchini, JBJ and Craig (maybe even all four) probably isn't in "bowling them over" territory.

 
Wouldn't bowling them over indicate Betts. He has several 300 games to his credit. If so, I want no part of that trade.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I rather think the Sox would decline that trade .. all that for a part-time player? 

 
That's kind of my point.  The Red Sox aren't going to make a big offer for a closer, and the Braves being so adamant about not moving him indicates that whatever the Sox might realistically offer isn't going to be close to enough in their eyes.  In other words, the whole idea is a non-starter.

 

[Plympton91]

Well, we can look at what the Red Sox have been willing to give up in trades for closers:

Gagne: Murphy, Gabbard, and Beltre
Bailey: Reddick, Head, and Alcantara
Melancon: Lowrie, Weiland
Hanrahan: Melancon, Sands, Pimental, DeJesus

If you take a central tendency across those trades, it looks like they're willing to offer a good, young "10th player" with some upside (Murphy, Reddick, Lowrie), plus a top minors pitching prospect who projects as a swingman-type or set-up guy (Gabbard, Weiland, Melancon), plus a low-minors toolsy type (Beltre, Alcantara, Pimental).

And, those packages were for players who were only under control for a year or less (Gagne, Hanrahan), had significant injury concerns (Gagne, Bailey), or very shallow track records (Melancon). So, by extension, they should be willing to give up significantly more than, say, Murphy, Gabbard, Beltre, for 4 years of perfectly healthy, in his prime, proven, and dominant Craig Kimbrell (or 2 years of Greg Holland or Wade Davis who you'd want to kick the tires on before giving Atlanta their asking price).

So, what's a better deal than Murphy, Gabbard, Beltre? JBJ, Wright, and Rijo? Probably not enough. But, does substituting Owens for Wright get you there? Is that too much? Is it out of line with what they paid for Gagne or Bailey, considering the difference in quality and control between those two and Kimbrell?

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Dana Eveland had a pretty nice season for the Mets.
 
The Red Sox have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with left-hander Dana Eveland, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Eveland, a client of PSI Sports Management, will receive a split deal with an invite to big league camp.
The 31-year-old enjoyed a solid half-season with the Mets in 2014, notching a 2.63 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 53.8 percent ground-ball rate in 27 1/3 innings. That work represented his first in the Majors since 2012, when he struggled to a 4.73 ERA with the Orioles in 32 1/3 innings.
Eveland debuted as a 21-year-old reliever with the Brewers back in 2005 and struggled to establish himself in either the bullpen or the rotation with Milwaukee or Arizona over the next three seasons. Traded alongside Brett Anderson, Chris Carter and Carlos Gonzalez to the A’s in the Dan Haren blockbuster of 2007, Eveland registered 168 innings of 4.34 ERA ball in his first season with the A’s, but again fell victim to struggles the following season.
All told, he owns a lifetime 5.27 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 420 big league innings, though he did make some significant strides in 2014. Eveland has nearly scrapped his four-seamer entirely and now relies on a hefty dose of two-seam fastballs and far more sliders than he’s ever thrown. The results were positive, particularly against left-handed hitters, who batted just .241/.305/.296 against him last year.

 

[nattysez]

Seems a little surprising the best he could do was a split deal, but maybe those 27.1 innings are easy to dismiss when compared to the rest of his body of work.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Eveland actually threw over 50% sliders last year; that may have something to do with the sharp improvement in results, though I wonder if it's sustainable. And of course, the Sox would have been drawn to the >50% career GB rate (53.8% last year).

 

[SeanBerry]

Watched Eveland pitch quite a bit last year. He really was quite good. He is 100% worth a flyer. 
 
Having said all that, he had elbow problems last year and finished the year at home (Mets sent him back after September callups when he couldn't pitch due to "elbow inflammation".). 
 
I don't think there is anyway he pitches a full season and has 60 IP next year. Guy is a time bomb and would look uncomfortable (hurt?) on the mound at times but if you can get 30 good IP out of him, he's worth it. 

 

[Plympton91]

How about Casey Janssen?

He had a second half from hell last season just like Koji, but unlike Koji he has a good excuse. Apparently over the all star break he went to the Carriban and got some kind of food borne illness that lingered and weakened him a lot. (I remember Pedro going through a stretch like that in his first year in Boston) That would have been on top of an abdominal injury to start the season that probably prevented him from being in the best shape to start the marathon. So, there's good reason to expect a bounce back to the 2010-2013 Janssen in 2015.

He's probably holding out for a closer gig, but I'd be happy to give him multiple years of top set up money as a compromise. They really need better depth in this pen; to me, it's a higher priority rift now than a #1 starter. If Koji or Taz is hurt or ineffective, they're screwed

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'd love to see them grab Janssen. He's highly underrated and would make me feel much better about the pen. I don't have a ton of confidence in Koji given his second half struggles age and reliance on the splitter. The path from historically dominant to mediocre or worse could be a short one. Being in some insurance.

 

[bosockboy]

Janssen or K-Rod would be great.

 

[The Boomer]

Janssen or K-Rod would be great.

 
Why isn't K-Rod signed?  Papelbon over him for the Brewers doesn't make a lot of sense unless Boras believes he can extort a ransom from another team needing a closer.  Still only 33, K-Rod could be a quality short term signing:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrifr03.shtml
 
His numbers (he was a NL all star) were good last year.  I'm not sure why his FIP was so high.  Maybe a numbers guru can explain.  How much more than $3.25 million is Boras expecting to get for him?  He would be good Uehara insurance, particularly if management is serious about reducing his geriatric RP workload.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It's probably mostly that 1.85 HR/9. With it normalized it shifts to 2.91 (his xFIP).

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Am I the only one who would rather just shift Barnes to relief than bring in a guy like K-Rod? 

 

[The Boomer]

Am I the only one who would rather just shift Barnes to relief than bring in a guy like K-Rod? 

 
Do both.  Barnes will begin his bullpen transition at AAA.  

 

[Plympton91]

Am I the only one who would rather just shift Barnes to relief than bring in a guy like K-Rod? 

Last I checked the Red Sox typically carry 7 relievers. The have Uehara, who finished the year giving up runs by the bucketload, Tazawa, who is best used as a 7th inning guy, Mujica who gets by on smoke and mirrors, Breslow, who sucked all last season, and a bunch of unproven failed AAA starters. The kids will get PLENTY of chances to win a spot, with or without another proven vet added to the pen.

 

[jasvlm]

This might be the weak link in what appears to be a very strong Sox team.  It is entirely possible Uehara is going to be the dominant guy he was for most of 2013 and the first 4 months of 2014.  Even if that is the case, the Red Sox are depending on guys like Tazawa, Breslow and Mujica to pitch meaningful innings.  That worries me.  The Yankees have 2 of the most dominant relievers in the game with Betances and Miller at the back end, and that's a recipe that figures to help them hold a lot of leads.  I know the front office isn't done yet, but this is one area of the team where I'd be willing to invest a bit more in terms of a trade to add another monster arm to the back end of the pen.  Even to trade for a guy like Kimbrel or Chapman, both of whom have 2 years of control left, might be worthwhile.  Those types always tend to cost more at the trade deadline, and the competition for their services gets more acute as the contenders vie for the same assets.  I think I'd be more confident in this area were they to add a few juicy pieces before the season starts.  Nothing kills a team like a leaky pen.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

  Nothing kills a team like a leaky pen.

Unless it's a crappy rotation or an inept lineup

 

[benhogan]

Last I checked the Red Sox typically carry 7 relievers. The have Uehara, who finished the year giving up runs by the bucketload, Tazawa, who is best used as a 7th inning guy, Mujica who gets by on smoke and mirrors, Breslow, who sucked all last season, and a bunch of unproven failed AAA starters. The kids will get PLENTY of chances to win a spot, with or without another proven vet added to the pen.

This Uehara handwringing is getting played a little too hard.  He had a 6 game stretch of the season where he gave up 10 runs (5 runs in 1 game). He lost his splitter and location, maybe he was tired, injured or not as focused with the team playing the season out.  The rest of the entire season he yielded a total of 8 earned runs.
 
I'm glad the Sox management didn't overreact to a small sample in late August and re-signed him for 2 more seasons.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This Uehara handwringing is getting played a little too hard.  He had a 6 game stretch of the season where he gave up 10 runs (5 runs in 1 game). He lost his splitter and location, maybe he was tired, injured or not as focused with the team playing the season out.  The rest of the entire season he yielded a total of 8 earned runs.
 
I'm glad the Sox management didn't overreact to a small sample in late August and re-signed him for 2 more seasons.

 
You are shading this significantly. His rough patch was followed by three games where he didn't allow a run, but he didn't look sharp in the first two needing 15 and 17 pitches to get through his inning of work in each game. His last game was better. He threw 7 pitches to retire three Rays. One game is not enough to ease fears that as a 38 year old pitcher, his age was catching up to him. Assuming he's going to be dominant Koji for a full season because he had one strong game to finish the season, against a Rays lineup riding out the string would be horribly naive. The guy is going to be 39 years old. Even if he hadn't sucked down the stretch last season, there would be a significant chance he would fall off a cliff in 2015.

 

[benhogan]

 
You are shading this significantly. His rough patch was followed by three games where he didn't allow a run, but he didn't look sharp in the first two needing 15 and 17 pitches to get through his inning of work in each game. His last game was better. He threw 7 pitches to retire three Rays. One game is not enough to ease fears that as a 38 year old pitcher, his age was catching up to him. Assuming he's going to be dominant Koji for a full season because he had one strong game to finish the season, against a Rays lineup riding out the string would be horribly naive. The guy is going to be 39 years old. Even if he hadn't sucked down the stretch last season, there would be a significant chance he would fall off a cliff in 2015.

If given a choice, like the Red Sox were this winter, would you rather have signed a 29yr old Andrew Miller for 4yrs at $36MM to close or a 39yr old Koji for 2yrs at 18MM?  

 

[Plympton91]

If given a choice, like the Red Sox were this winter, would you rather have signed a 29yr old Andrew Miller for 4yrs at $36MM to close or a 39yr old Koji for 2yrs at 18MM?  

Miller, easily.

The focus on years is misguided. Focus on health, age, and trends in performance. In the years bracketing the one in which the Sox signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year, $12 million deal; Juaquin Benoit, Scott Downs, and Jeremy Affelt all signed 3 or 4 year deals for around $5 million AAV. All 3 of the longer deals worked out fine, Jenks was a disaster.

Benoit and Affelt in particular fit my hunch, which I'm constantly adding anecdotes to progress to data, that players who were starters up through their major league debuts (this also includes some of the greatest and most durable relievers of all time: Rivera for instance) have more inherent talent, and thus are more likely to be good investments as relievers in both quality and durability. Miller is in that category. If you include Uehara in Japan, he also fits that category.

 

[benhogan]

Miller, easily.

The focus on years is misguided. Focus on health, age, and trends in performance. In the years bracketing the one in which the Sox signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year, $12 million deal; Juaquin Benoit, Scott Downs, and Jeremy Affelt all signed 3 or 4 year deals for around $5 million AAV. All 3 of the longer deals worked out fine, Jenks was a disaster.

 

Thats fine, Miller looked dominant this season and it was nice to see him go over 1 WAR and a sub 1 WHIP  for the first time in his career.
 
BUT if you use 'Age/health/screw short contract years' as a guide on signing relievers there is no way you sign a 38yr old Koji, coming off an injury plagued 2012, for 2yrs at 8.5MM (2nd year was vesting).

 

[Plympton91]

That's not exactly going out on a limb. The majority of relievers were starters in the minors. That includes Bobby Jenks.

Rivera, Affelt, Benoit, and Miller were starters in the majors.

 

[jasvlm]

Miller, easily.

The focus on years is misguided. Focus on health, age, and trends in performance. In the years bracketing the one in which the Sox signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year, $12 million deal; Juaquin Benoit, Scott Downs, and Jeremy Affelt all signed 3 or 4 year deals for around $5 million AAV. All 3 of the longer deals worked out fine, Jenks was a disaster.

Benoit and Affelt in particular fit my hunch, which I'm constantly adding anecdotes to progress to data, that players who were starters up through their major league debuts (this also includes some of the greatest and most durable relievers of all time: Rivera for instance) have more inherent talent, and thus are more likely to be good investments as relievers in both quality and durability. Miller is in that category. If you include Uehara in Japan, he also fits that category.

I'm not so sure the Red Sox don't agree with you.  They apparently were willing to go to 4 years for Miller, and the money was close to what the Yankees ended up offering, so you might be right that the Red Sox value relief pitching enough to pay for 4 years of it in the case of a guy like Miller.  That said, Koji on his deal has a very small chance of being a really bad investment.  Even if he pitches more poorly than he has in his incredibly dominant 2 year run in 2013-2014, that drop might just make him a better than league average pen arm instead of one of the top 10 relievers in baseball.  An injury could certainly screw up his performance at his age, and that might be the main worry for him at this point, but at only 2 years, the downside is minimal.  
I'm encouraged that the Sox value elite relief pitching enough to invest (or trying to) in a guy like Miller.  It is entirely possible that someone like Benoit, Davis, Holland or even Chapman or Kimbrel will be on the market come midseason, and I'd like to think that Boston would pony up what it would cost to acquire, and then retain by signing them beyond their current contracts, one of those elite pen arms.  Each of the Red Sox championship runs were built around what could be argued as top 5 relievers in the game at the time (Foulke, Papelbon and Koji).  Beyond Koji's current contract, I'm not sure the next monster is in the organization.  Relievers emerge suddenly, and out of nowhere at times, so the name of the next big guy might not be all that clear right now.  By midseason, however, they should know more about what they have and don't have among their current crop of young hopefuls, and going hunting for one of the elite arms on the market might be their top priority.

 

[GaryPeters71]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  4m4 minutes ago Miami, FL
lotta good pen guys left: krod, sori, janssen, ax, c. perez, ogando, gregg, ogando, thatcher, beli, cotts, gregg, coffey
 
Could get a bargain or 2 out of this group prior to spring training...

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

 
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  4m4 minutes ago Miami, FL
lotta good pen guys left: krod, sori, janssen, ax, c. perez, ogando, gregg, ogando, thatcher, beli, cotts, gregg, coffey
 
Could get a bargain or 2 out of this group prior to spring training...
 

 
Can't beat 2 Ogando's for the price of one! 

 

[jasvlm]

The bargain guys could be fine to fill in on 1 year deals for short money, but I don't know that any of those names pitches in the 8th inning of a playoff game for Boston.  Of the group mentioned, I actually like Cotts the best.  I think he provides a strikeout lefty who has pitched in high leverage situations before, and should come very inexpensively.  Putting him in the pen with Uehara, Tarawa, Mujica, Varvaro from the right, and Breslow and Cotts from the left gives them a decent, but not great, pen.  I think the 7th pen arm will be a long reliever type, and may well be a Workman or Barnes, or perhaps even  Kelly if they add a starter.  Investing in a high end reliever to pitch in 2015 and beyond should be a priority for the Sox, and I hope to see moves in that direction soon.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I really don't ever have much time to check more deeply into this stuff than brief reads in the morning.... but I'd love to see some reports on the bullpen situation.  Barring injury, obviously Koji is still going to be given the first closing duty of the year, and probably even the second, third and maybe fourth.  
Who do people think will step in to close if he's looking terrible or is injured?  I saw this little blip on Barnes this morning and I'm wondering if he could end up a long term closer for us:  http://nesn.com/2015/03/red-sox-notes-matt-barnes-really-turning-heads-at-spring-training/  Something about him does remind me of Papelbon....

 

[Darnell's Son]

I would assume, if he's affective when/if Koji goes down, that Mujica would be given the shot since he has experience as The Closer.

 

[phenweigh]

Sox Prospects projects the bullpen as (arranged alphabetically):
 
Craig Breslow (L)
Edward Mujica
Alexi Ogando
Robbie Ross (L)
Junichi Tazawa
Koji Uehara
Anthony Varvaro
 
with Mitchell Boggs and Dana Eveland on the bubble
 
AAA bullpen depth would be:
 
Heath Hembree
Tommy Layne (L)
Zeke Spruill
Brandon Workman
 
Plus the possibility of converting a AAA starter to the pen.
 
Reliever projections have high error bars, but my sense of this pen is that it is deep with a lot of high floor candidates, but doesn't have a high ceiling.  Maybe Ogando, if he can stay healthy will emerge as a shut-down, non-closer reliever, but that seems like a substantial if.  I have a binkie for Steven Wright as a set-up guy, but it's hard to imagine that turning into a reality.  It seems like there is enough potential here for a solid pen, but there may be some ugliness to find the right seven guys.

 

[grimshaw]

I'm fine with Mujica, though I would say the bullpen is my biggest concern going into the season.  They really don't have that guy you bring in with runners on needing a strikeout.  It's Tazawa in theory, but he blows a lot of saves and works far better starting an inning clean  Breslow was awful, and we don't really know what expect from Ogando or Varvaro to a lesser degree.
 
The depth is there with Wright, Workman, Escobar and Layne but those are fringy guys.
 
I'm sure there's a back up plan and it probably involves converting a starter, but I just hope they are proactive and don't lose too many games in April and May while in the evaluation process.

 

[ALiveH]

I could see the Sox start using Barnes as a reliever around mid-season or if there are injuries, though it'd be pretty unusual to hand the closer role directly to a rookie.  Barnes really seems to have the ideal failed starter - turned - excellent reliever profile.  First of all there's his age (24) and he's been given every opportunity to prove himself as starter.  The FB is plus as a starter and could be dominant in short spurts as a reliever (mid-high 90s with some movement and decent command).  He's had trouble developing secondary pitches - obviously as a reliever there would be less need to.  And, I do see the Papelbon comparison in stuff, demeanor and approach, even though Papelbon was a better prospect & put up better numbers.