Back for OTAs or Out to Pasture: Have we seen the last of Peyton Manning?

Al Zarilla

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Euclis20 said:
 
And the Patriots will be right back in the mix next year, unless Brady's performance over the first 4 (and last 4) games carries over to the rest of the year.  It isn't difficult to imagine Gronk suffers his 4th major injury in the last 5 years, or Revis and/or McCourty leave in free agency, dropping the Pats back to where they were the last couple years (without a great receiver and with a below average secondary), but without MVP caliber Brady to pick them up.  
 
You can play the what if game with any team.  Manning looked toast against the Colts, but not in the regular season.  In 2013, he looked done against Seattle, but not in the regular season.  In 2012, he looked done against the Ravens...but not in the regular season.  It's with good reason that Denver is again picked as one of the best teams in the AFC.
You're all unicorns and rainbows, aren't you? I think Brady is in the best shape of his life because of his work ethic, diet, etc. Imagining that combine pic of him in 2000 in shorts. Different guy. His arm isn't getting weak. He's about as good as ever, barring injury of course. Gronk should not be any more injury prone going forward than anyone else. He seems look out for himself a lot better after catches, not allowing either foot to be planted too much, and getting himself into the air. Think of that incredible TD against the Colts when he was going into the endzone through multiple guys. Of course, on  catches with his back to the defense, who knows what can happen next. Too much worst case in your post.
 

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simplyeric said:
Do you think that maybe, this year, Peyton doesn't bravely take the essentially garbage-time snaps in games that are fully decided?  
 
He's so strong and brave (and such a total dick to his backup QB)
 
Even just those handful of extra throws (and possible extra hits) must wear him down.
You mean unlike Brady, who is quick to exit and let the backup play?
 

Ed Hillel

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reggiecleveland said:
You mean unlike Brady, who is quick to exit and let the backup play?
 
I have absolutely no issue with Manning wanting to stay in, for whatever reasons. I want my QB wanting to stay on the field, and the coach to make the decision to yank him. What struck me was that Manning appeared to ignore his coach's decision to pull him on at least one occassion.
 

Leather

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He really has entered the Brett Favre-goes-to-the-Jets phase.
 

Marciano490

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drleather2001 said:
He really has entered the Brett Favre-goes-to-the-Jets phase.
 
I wonder if his dick pic will feature a little red splotch from the condom.
 

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I am glad I am not alone in never really getting over this AFC Championship game. At the half my wife said, 'it's over, the Pats should take it easy on them, don't you feel bad for the Colts?' She looked at me like I was some deranged bully for saying, 'no way, we need at least 14 more.' I still sort of blame her for this one.
 
Chicago was so obviously just a sitting duck.
 
To be honest, I feel like the lasting legacy of that 2006 Patriots team was "How the hell did Belichick and Brady get that team with those WRs to the AFCCG and within 4 points of the Super Bowl?"
 
Still, yes, that game was haunting.  The Patriots had 3-4 chances to salt away that 2006 AFCCG and just couldn't quite do it.  
 
For example:  
1) 4th quarter, 13 mins left, Colts at Pats 1 down 28-21: Rhodes fumbles into the end zone, but somehow center Jeff Saturday recovers it for a TD milliseconds before Bruschi can scoop it up.
 
2) 4th quarter, 9 mins left, Pats at Colts 13 tied 28-28:
- On 1st & 10 Brady completes a 7 yard pass to Troy Brown get them to the Colts' 6... until there's a 5-yard illegal shift penalty on Gaffney.  No play.
- The next play: On 1st & 15 Caldwell lines up to the right... and the Colts forget to cover him.  Nantz and Simms go nuts, the Patriots sideline goes nuts... but Brady doesn't see it for a while, after which Caldwell runs a short curl uncovered... and then drops the pass.  If he runs a go route to the end zone or even just breaks one tackle it's a TD.  Even if he doesn't it's 2nd & ~6.
- On 3rd & 7 Caldwell runs into the corner of the end zone... at which point Colts #26 runs into him and wraps him up as the ball is in the air.  No call.
 
Pats settle for a FG.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Aside from the Jets game, I'm not exactly sure what you are citing in the final four games that made Brady look shaky. And I would ask if you actually watched any of the Broncos games from the second half or if you are just scouting box scores. Because if you watched them, from the Rams game on, Manning never looked right. That he was still able to put up good overall numbers is a tribute to the space between his ears. He had some good games and some awful ones and it certainly didn't appear to be because of a quad injury. 
 
If it was just a quad injury that led to that, would there be all the hullabaloo about if he's coming back next season or not? He's an insanely competitive guy and has a huge salary to collect, never mind chasing the elusive second ring to secure his legacy. I doubt a quad injury would end his career and he's not working out in NO right now to test his quad. I don't think it's at all crazy to wonder if he physically can perform at even the level you are citing over another season. And even those aren't as great as you are making them out to be - a 90.3 rating would slot him #17 in 2014, right behind Joe Flacco and just ahead of Jay Cutler. Also behind such luminary QBs as Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith and Manning the Jr. A 90 rating isn't what it used to be. 
 
This is to say nothing of their schedule next year. Non division looks like: 
 
Home: BAL, CIN, GB, NE, MIN
Away: CLE, PIT, IND, DET, CHI 
 
So yeah, I'm in Ed's camp. I could easily see them going 9-7 unless Peyton returns to an elite level and they bring the whole band back. And when you're relying on a 39 year old QB with multiple neck surgeries who last time we saw him looked like he lacked the physical strength to advance the ball more than 20 feet in the air, it's past the usual "well if x,y,z happens, any team can falter". 
 
And Vegas odds mean shit dude. Citing those means nothing.
Good post. Those second half numbers also include the first Raiders game where he had a big day. If you confine the sample to the Rams game onward, the numbers look worse.

Beyond all the issues with his health and his neck, our strong expectation is that a 39-year-old QB will be worse than a 38-year-old QB. I posted this somewhere upthread but the number of complete or nearly complete high-level seasons put up by QBs at age 39 or later in the modern NFL is shockingly low. Its basically one Brett Favre season (which came amid two dogshit seasons) and one Warren Moon season and that's it. There are reasons to think Peyton might bounce back (won't have the quad injury) but there are also reasons to expect decline. For me, it all washes out and the most likely scenario is that he's an above average QB to start the season (but never gets back to truly elite levels) and then looks increasingly mediocre over the course of the year as the hits pile up.
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Good post. Those second half numbers also include the first Raiders game where he had a big day. If you confine the sample to the Rams game onward, the numbers look worse.

Beyond all the issues with his health and his neck, our strong expectation is that a 39-year-old QB will be worse than a 38-year-old QB. I posted this somewhere upthread but the number of complete or nearly complete high-level seasons put up by QBs at age 39 or later in the modern NFL is shockingly low. Its basically one Brett Favre season (which came amid two dogshit seasons) and one Warren Moon season and that's it. There are reasons to think Peyton might bounce back (won't have the quad injury) but there are also reasons to expect decline. For me, it all washes out and the most likely scenario is that he's an above average QB to start the season (but never gets back to truly elite levels) and then looks increasingly mediocre over the course of the year as the hits pile up.
 
Which, to me, is the only relevant consideration.  Denver's been a playoff team and Super Bowl contender going on a few years now.  They don't need to make the playoffs or win a divisional round to be successful, they need someone who is going to be still going strong 18, 19, 20 weeks in and I don't think there's anyone who reasonably thinks that person is Manning.  Why they would make decisions about their future when the best they can reasonably hope for is another one and done playoff run is beyond me.
 

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dynomite said:
 
To be honest, I feel like the lasting legacy of that 2006 Patriots team was "How the hell did Belichick and Brady get that team with those WRs to the AFCCG and within 4 points of the Super Bowl?"
 
Still, yes, that game was haunting.  The Patriots had 3-4 chances to salt away that 2006 AFCCG and just couldn't quite do it.  
 
For example:  
1) 4th quarter, 13 mins left, Colts at Pats 1 down 28-21: Rhodes fumbles into the end zone, but somehow center Jeff Saturday recovers it for a TD milliseconds before Bruschi can scoop it up.
 
2) 4th quarter, 9 mins left, Pats at Colts 13 tied 28-28:
- On 1st & 10 Brady completes a 7 yard pass to Troy Brown get them to the Colts' 6... until there's a 5-yard illegal shift penalty on Gaffney.  No play.
- The next play: On 1st & 15 Caldwell lines up to the right... and the Colts forget to cover him.  Nantz and Simms go nuts, the Patriots sideline goes nuts... but Brady doesn't see it for a while, after which Caldwell runs a short curl uncovered... and then drops the pass.  If he runs a go route to the end zone or even just breaks one tackle it's a TD.  Even if he doesn't it's 2nd & ~6.
- On 3rd & 7 Caldwell runs into the corner of the end zone... at which point Colts #26 runs into him and wraps him up as the ball is in the air.  No call.
 
Pats settle for a FG.
 
Almost as bad as the 2008 Super Bowl, this one made it hard for me to fall asleep that night.  
 

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Marciano490 said:
Which, to me, is the only relevant consideration.  Denver's been a playoff team and Super Bowl contender going on a few years now.  They don't need to make the playoffs or win a divisional round to be successful, they need someone who is going to be still going strong 18, 19, 20 weeks in and I don't think there's anyone who reasonably thinks that person is Manning.  Why they would make decisions about their future when the best they can reasonably hope for is another one and done playoff run is beyond me.
I agree but what other choice do they have? Osweiler is basically a ganglier, goofier Mallett who has proven less on the field. I'd be shocked if he is the answer. There is nobody to acquire via trade (except Cutler, which would be hilarious, but it isn't going to happen) and this draft is pretty thin at the QB position after Winston and Mariota. Its Peyton or bust (likely bust).
 

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Euclis20 said:
By any statistical measure, Manning was a top 5 QB this season.  Denver went 6-2 during their 2nd half collapse, and finished the year 4th in weighted DVOA.  They are currently at 10-1 to win next year's Super Bowl, behind only Seattle and New England (tied with Green Bay).  Any idea that Denver won't again be among the 3-4 best teams in the conference is wishful thinking.  Only NE is a safer bet to make the postseason out of the AFC.
 
Who is going unseat the Colts in the AFC South?
 

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Marciano490 said:
Is Osweiler a viable starter or do they go to the draft in the early rounds this year for a successor QB?
 
He is a prototypical build for Kubiak to work with.  His biggest problem is that he tends to make poor decisions and he war somewhat raw out of college.  Maybe three years on the bench helped?  He is a free agent after this season.
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I agree but what other choice do they have? Osweiler is basically a ganglier, goofier Mallett who has proven less on the field. I'd be shocked if he is the answer. There is nobody to acquire via trade (except Cutler, which would be hilarious, but it isn't going to happen) and this draft is pretty thin at the QB position after Winston and Mariota. Its Peyton or bust (likely bust).
 
For this season, yes, but releasing or trading Manning allows the team to re-sign basically whoever it wants and/or make a splash in free agency. If you assess the situation and believe that Manning just can't lead the team to another Superbowl at this point, isn't it the prudent move for the team? I'm not saying that one must conclude that Manning can't win another Superbowl, but if Elway looks at things and does come to that conclusion, it doesn't make sense to keep him around. Manning could then jet off to Houston (I think Buffalo would be too cold for his liking), which would be interesting. All that notwithstanding, I don't think Elway will cut him or "fail his physical."
 

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TomRicardo said:
 
Who is going unseat the Colts in the AFC South?
 
Houston was 2-14 in 2013, moved to 9-7 last year.  Having a consistent QB situation and, perhaps, Clowney contributing something, they could be a big threat to Indy.   I could see them going 11-5, which was Indy's record this year.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Is CJ Anderson a guy you can build an offense around and hope Osweiler can be Alex Smtih?
 
Anderson has started seven games, has less than a thousand career yards and was a UDFA after an unspectacular college resume. Osweiler is 17-30 in three seasons and thirteen mop-up appearances. Denver fans, like all fans, want to win a Super Bowl next season. 
 
I'm pretty sure the only way John Elway could turn decades of goodwill into being burned in effigy is by following this idea.
 

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soxfan121 said:
 
Anderson has started seven games, has less than a thousand career yards and was a UDFA after an unspectacular college resume. Osweiler is 17-30 in three seasons and thirteen mop-up appearances. Denver fans, like all fans, want to win a Super Bowl next season. 
 
I'm pretty sure the only way John Elway could turn decades of goodwill into being burned in effigy is by following this idea.
 
Doesn't mean it would be the wrong decision.
 

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reggiecleveland said:
You mean unlike Brady, who is quick to exit and let the backup play?
 
What Brady does or doesn't do has no bearing on how Manning wears over the course of the season.
 
I'm not talking about the one-off play that blows out the ACL or something.  I'm just talking about a 39 yr old out there taking additional hits, and making additional throws.
 
Manning isn't young enough (it would seem) such that he can sustain his arm strength or overall strength over the course of a season.  That, at least, is a theory being discussed.
 
If Brady is conditioned well enough, and young enough so that his arm/body strength is not depleting over the course of a season, then it's totally different.
 
 
But yeah, maybe Brady should reconsider that. (as PP noted)
 

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drleather2001 said:
 
Doesn't mean it would be the wrong decision.
 
Agreed, if John Elway's main concern is keeping fans goodwill, he's in the wrong job. He should be making decisions best for the team short and long term. It's shocking anyone one a Patriots messageboard would recite such garbage as "fans goodwill" when this is exactly what the Patriots have built 15 years of success on (Milloy, Seymour, Moss, Welker, Mankins and more) Any team that rules based upon fan goodwill is doomed to fail.
 
Oswiler has 30 career attempts, so SSS and all that. 
 
Tom Brady couldn't even win a starting job in college, then was 1/3 for 6 yards in his rookie year. There are hundreds of outstanding college players who never did anything in the NFL and hundreds of decent/good NFL players that didn't do anything in college, so I don't understand why CJ Anderson's college resume comes into this. He's been very good in the NFL so far in limited snaps.
 

JimD

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He's got boatloads of fan goodwill, doesn't he?  He's John Freakin' Elway, for starters.  His last retooling brought three straight AFC West titles and a Super Bowl appearance.  Whatever he says the Broncos need to do, I suspect many Denver fans will simply accept as gospel.
 

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NortheasternPJ said:
 
 
Tom Brady couldn't even win a starting job in college, 
 
Who started for Michigan in 1998 and 1999 then?
 
This is another one of those truthy factoids that for some reason won't die.
 

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Who started for Michigan in 1998 and 1999 then?
 
This is another one of those truthy factoids that for some reason won't die.
It's in a similar vein to the Jordan got cut from the varsity team narrative. Both are qualified with "yeah when he was a freshman." Or in Brady's case sophomore too I believe.
 

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GeorgeCostanza said:
It's in a similar vein to the Jordan got cut from the varsity team narrative. Both are qualified with "yeah when he was a freshman." Or in Brady's case sophomore too I believe.
It was actually more his senior year that he split time with Drew Henson for a while. But Brady ended up with 295 pass attempts, Henson just 89.
 
Rice played at Michigan when I was in school and my roommate's best friend from high school went to college there, so we actually went up to Ann Arbor for the game. Henson had already had a big feature in SI so I was much more interested in what he was doing that in the other no-name guy. It wasn't until years later that I realized, "hey, Tom Brady was probably the quarterback for that game."
 

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There is no Rev said:
 
Who started for Michigan in 1998 and 1999 then?
 
This is another one of those truthy factoids that for some reason won't die.
 
He did technically "start" every game in 1999.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xHJMfF-3FD0#t=260
 
For the first 6 games in 1999 he was platooned with Drew Henson.  He basically had to prove to Lloyd Carr beyond any reasonable doubt that he was way better than Henson before Carr would make him the true starting QB.
 

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Hard to explain the status Henson had in Michigan as a recruit. Even then, it was a weird decision and Brady as noted won the job back. Not sure if in any other situation people would talk about a guy who started off splitting time and then became the undisputed #1 as having done anything but "Win the job."
 

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Speaking of .... It would be fascinating if Elway subtly played the Brady card with Manning -- e.g., please consider taking less so the team can be more. And Elway could a point not applicable to Brady -- you're not the guy you were, so it makes sense for no one to pay you like the guy you were; you need more help, which needs to be paid for
 

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dcmissle said:
Speaking of .... It would be fascinating if Elway subtly played the Brady card with Manning -- e.g., please consider taking less so the team can be more. And Elway could a point not applicable to Brady -- you're not the guy you were, so it makes sense for no one to pay you like the guy you were; you need more help, which needs to be paid for
 
Worth noting that, when Elway took salary deferments at the end of his career, the Broncos got docked draft picks for cheating the salary cap.
 

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dcmissle said:
Speaking of .... It would be fascinating if Elway subtly played the Brady card with Manning -- e.g., please consider taking less so the team can be more. And Elway could a point not applicable to Brady -- you're not the guy you were, so it makes sense for no one to pay you like the guy you were; you need more help, which needs to be paid for
It's going to be a great showdown in Denver over the next few weeks. Did you know that Manning has made $80M more in NFL salary earnings than Brady?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/earnings/

Peyton has been the QB equivalent of Revis thus far.There's got to be a QB salary to cap ratio threshold that *generally* puts a Super Bowl out of reach.
 

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BigSoxFan said:
To which Manning could respond: "good luck in 2015 with Brock Osweiler at QB". Elway doesn't have much leverage here. Manning is certainly in decline but he still represents by far the best option for Denver. And he certainly knows it.
 
I think the point isn't as much leverage at the bargaining table, as making a rational argument that Manning can either a. maximize his income, or b. maximize his chances of "Winning".  It's not like, if they don't pay Manning, Elway gets to keep the money.  
Manning is a huge stats and legacy guy (whore), and there's some argument that taking less money would lead to better stats and an increased chance of winning it all.
 

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I am never going to ding a player for doing their best to get paid. They make the product on the field and deserve every penny they get.
 
I won't even make an exception for Peyton fucking Manning, either.
 
M

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Unless I'm misinterpreting, people aren't saying it's some sort of immoral choice Manning is making, demanding his full market value at the expense of team roster talent and depth.  They're just saying:
 
(1) Elway ought to make a run at him over it to see if he can get Manning to voluntarily take less than top dollar, and
(2) Manning probably cares about team success at some level, so he ought to be receptive to the idea, especially at this phase in his career where he's made more money than his kids could ever spend.
 

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Does anybody actually know what the rules are that govern salary restructures that lower the value of a contract? Most restructures involve converting salary into bonus so as to kick money down the line, while keeping the value of the contract the same. Peyton could do that, obviously, but if the plan is for 2015 to be his last year, you're looking at a lot of dead money accelerating onto the cap in 2016. But could he restructure in a way that simply lowers the dollar value of his 2015 salary? I'm not sure whether that's even allowable per the current CBA.

The other option, of course, is that the Broncos could cut Manning and sign him to an entirely new contract. But then $5M in dead money from his current contract would accelerate onto the 2015 cap, making it that much harder to lower his cap number without paying him relative peanuts.
 

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I wonder if there's some way to guess at what his future (non playing) earnings might be. Meaning, if he could win another superbowl would he stand to gain more in future endorsements than he would compared to an additional several million now for a one and done.
Of course, bird in hand, etc. I'm just curious if his agent or some savvy sports marketer tried to crunch those numbers.
 

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JimD said:
He's got boatloads of fan goodwill, doesn't he?  He's John Freakin' Elway, for starters.  His last retooling brought three straight AFC West titles and a Super Bowl appearance.  Whatever he says the Broncos need to do, I suspect many Denver fans will simply accept as gospel.
There is also the danger of being wrong if he goes this way, somewhat like Clemens/the "twilight of his career."  But unlike that story, if Elway is wrong here it's probably only by a year or two.
 

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Kevin Youkulele said:
There is also the danger of being wrong if he goes this way, somewhat like Clemens/the "twilight of his career."  But unlike that story, if Elway is wrong here it's probably only by a year or two.
What if a little HGH gave Peyton 4 more years...?
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Does anybody actually know what the rules are that govern salary restructures that lower the value of a contract? Most restructures involve converting salary into bonus so as to kick money down the line, while keeping the value of the contract the same. Peyton could do that, obviously, but if the plan is for 2015 to be his last year, you're looking at a lot of dead money accelerating onto the cap in 2016. But could he restructure in a way that simply lowers the dollar value of his 2015 salary? I'm not sure whether that's even allowable per the current CBA.
This happens - the Pats did it recently with Blount, Hoomanawanui, Moss, and Ochocinco, for instance. Normally this involves a credible threat that the team will cut you under the current contract, however. I'm dubious Manning would take less money for purely altruistic reasons, and whether the NFLPA would be cool with it.
 

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Super Nomario said:
This happens - the Pats did it recently with Blount, Hoomanawanui, Moss, and Ochocinco, for instance. Normally this involves a credible threat that the team will cut you under the current contract, however. I'm dubious Manning would take less money for purely altruistic reasons, and whether the NFLPA would be cool with it.
Of course, now that you mention these names a whole bunch of these examples are flooding back to me. I'd be interested to see what the NFLPA does if Manning goes down this path. I can't remember a similar star player ever drastically reducing his salary for altruistic (rather than threat of cut) reasons.
 

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MentalDisabldLst said:
Unless I'm misinterpreting, people aren't saying it's some sort of immoral choice Manning is making, demanding his full market value at the expense of team roster talent and depth.  They're just saying:
 
(1) Elway ought to make a run at him over it to see if he can get Manning to voluntarily take less than top dollar, and
(2) Manning probably cares about team success at some level, so he ought to be receptive to the idea, especially at this phase in his career where he's made more money than his kids could ever spend.
That is exactly right. I don't begrudge any player a dime, and it's not my money to give back.

Yet Manning has cashed in throughout and is worth $100 million if he's worth a dime. Probably substantially more.

It's up to him to decide his priorities at this stage. Elway's priorities may be more focused on winning.
 

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dcmissle said:
Elway's priorities may be more focused on winning.
 
Well, of course, but winning in the short term or in the long term? What Elway does with the Denver Broncos in the next few years will be one of the most fascinating elements in the NFL over that span. Does he ride the Manning horse until it's time to shoot it, suck for Luck 2.0, sign Brady for his twilight years, or what?
 

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theapportioner said:
 
Well, of course, but winning in the short term or in the long term? What Elway does with the Denver Broncos in the next few years will be one of the most fascinating elements in the NFL over that span. Does he ride the Manning horse until it's time to shoot it, suck for Luck 2.0, sign Brady for his twilight years, or what?
He should pick up, say, Sanchize for a season, then flip him back to the Jets in order to land Rodgers for a 'comeback contract'.

I mean, he basically turned Jesus into pizza, so he's playing with house money at this stage.
 

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I get the impression from Broncos fans and press that there just isn't that much pressure to bring Manning back.

I mean, I think they'd prefer to have him, but there's a resignation that the best shot they had with Manning is already over.
 

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Peyton coming back is the worst kept secret in the world at this point.

I can't wait until his heart, his mind, his spirit, and his body all get broken next year. Its going to be awesome.
 

Just a bit outside

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Apr 6, 2011
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Monument, CO
drleather2001 said:
I get the impression from Broncos fans and press that there just isn't that much pressure to bring Manning back.

I mean, I think they'd prefer to have him, but there's a resignation that the best shot they had with Manning is already over.
This is what I hear on the radio in Denver.  They are not in love with Manning anymore but don't see a better alternative.  There is a minority of about 20% who seem to want to move on and start the rebuilding process but most seem willing to give it another year.  The interesting question is going to be how he fits into Kubiak's offense?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Hingham, MA
Just a bit outside said:
This is what I hear on the radio in Denver.  They are not in love with Manning anymore but don't see a better alternative.  There is a minority of about 20% who seem to want to move on and start the rebuilding process but most seem willing to give it another year.  The interesting question is going to be how he fits into Kubiak's offense?