Back for OTAs or Out to Pasture: Have we seen the last of Peyton Manning?

[rodderick]

He got hit square in the legs right about then (thought it was a low hit) and didn't look the same after that. It would coincide with a torn quad and an inability to drive through his legs after that

 
The Broncos went three and out with a terrible pass on third down before the hit gave them a first down. Immediately following that play, he made his best throws of the game to put the Broncos up 7-0. If it impacted his play, it sure was a delayed reaction.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Here's my take. 
 
Peyton's arm strength was shot late in the season for one of these 3 reasons
1. He's old and seeing father time take its toll (doubtful)
2. He has a quad injury and that effected his velo (possible, but unlikely)
3. He is having residual issues with the neck and nerve surgeries and his velo steadily declined as the season progressed. At this point he's trying to figure out why. (Possible)
 
Based on the fact that he's been aware that his arm strength hasn't been there, he's had to adjust and mask the issue so teams don't take advantage of him. The Broncos did this by doing two things, placing more balance on the run game, and working shorter routes. 
 
But, even Peyton can't ignore man coverage on receivers like DT and Sanders, and linebackers on Julius. 
 
So when he's had to work and take shots down the field, he's had to let the ball go earlier, knowing full well he can't wait for the route to develop and zip it in there. So he's guessing on where he thinks the receiver will be. This leads to a number of inaccuracy issues. If the receiver gets jammed and doesn't release clean, its an overthrow. If the receiver gets rerouted off his intended line, its a pass that is wide or leading too far because there isn't enough time for the receiver to pick up the ball and adjust his route. If its a deep shot, the ball is in the air too long and the safety can make a play leading to more INT's or near death for Sanders as we saw weeks ago. 
 
The pass to Julius early in the game was a lob that just got lucky in my opinion, he got a free release, was covered by a LB, and it was easy for Petyon to let it go knowing he'd be under it when he got to the ball. 
 
Now why his short throws were so bad, I have no idea. Maybe he's got some serious nerve damage and isn't feeling the ball. Who knows. 
 
But anyone of us weak armed guys who try to chuck a real football at a tailgate can tell you, once you try to push past your possible velo, the spiral goes and the ducks come out.
 
As for next season, I think he plays if he can determine why his arm strength failed late this year and its curable/fixable so that it doesn't happen next season. Barring that, I doubt we see him suit up to repeat what he had for the last part of this year.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Here's my take. 
 
Peyton's arm strength was shot late in the season for one of these 3 reasons
1. He's old and seeing father time take its toll (doubtful)
2. He has a quad injury and that effected his velo (possible, but unlikely)
3. He is having residual issues with the neck and nerve surgeries and his velo steadily declined as the season progressed. At this point he's trying to figure out why. (Possible)
 
Based on the fact that he's been aware that his arm strength hasn't been there, he's had to adjust and mask the issue so teams don't take advantage of him. The Broncos did this by doing two things, placing more balance on the run game, and working shorter routes. 
 
But, even Peyton can't ignore man coverage on receivers like DT and Sanders, and linebackers on Julius. 
 
So when he's had to work and take shots down the field, he's had to let the ball go earlier, knowing full well he can't wait for the route to develop and zip it in there. So he's guessing on where he thinks the receiver will be. This leads to a number of inaccuracy issues. If the receiver gets jammed and doesn't release clean, its an overthrow. If the receiver gets rerouted off his intended line, its a pass that is wide or leading too far because there isn't enough time for the receiver to pick up the ball and adjust his route. If its a deep shot, the ball is in the air too long and the safety can make a play leading to more INT's or near death for Sanders as we saw weeks ago. 
 
The pass to Julius early in the game was a lob that just got lucky in my opinion, he got a free release, was covered by a LB, and it was easy for Petyon to let it go knowing he'd be under it when he got to the ball. 
 
Now why his short throws were so bad, I have no idea. Maybe he's got some serious nerve damage and isn't feeling the ball. Who knows. 
 
But anyone of us weak armed guys who try to chuck a real football at a tailgate can tell you, once you try to push past your possible velo, the spiral goes and the ducks come out.
 
As for next season, I think he plays if he can determine why his arm strength failed late this year and its curable/fixable so that it doesn't happen next season. Barring that, I doubt we see him suit up to repeat what he had for the last part of this year.

 
This makes sense to me.  But I think the other big thing is that there is a whole category of routes/throws (actually, multiple categories) that he can't even attempt anymore in his current state.  Its not just that he missed the deep balls, its that everything he threw was either a floater over the top of single coverage or within five yards of the line of scrimmage.  He can't throw an out route to the sideline 15 yards down the field because the CB will just break on it.  He can't throw a ball down the seam unless its a floater and there's no safety around.  He can't throw a deep cross that has to get over a LB but under a safety.  He's easy to game plan against because the defense just doesn't even have to worry about a lot of throws.

 

[Stitch01]

Oh wow, I feel bad even joking about this topic now.  Thoughts and Prayers to all involved
 
Jay Glazer ‏@JayGlazer now
I reported on FOX Sat. AND Sun Peyton Manning actually had injuries to BOTH quads - strain (or partial tear) in one & deep bruise in other

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

 
This makes sense to me.  But I think the other big thing is that there is a whole category of routes/throws (actually, multiple categories) that he can't even attempt anymore in his current state.  Its not just that he missed the deep balls, its that everything he threw was either a floater over the top of single coverage or within five yards of the line of scrimmage.  He can't throw an out route to the sideline 15 yards down the field because the CB will just break on it.  He can't throw a ball down the seam unless its a floater and there's no safety around.  He can't throw a deep cross that has to get over a LB but under a safety.  He's easy to game plan against because the defense just doesn't even have to worry about a lot of throws.

Agreed

 

[crystalline]

A bad right quad could explain his poor throwing.

That's the push leg for a right handed QB, and the quads and hamstrings are the muscles that generate power from the legs when throwing. Try throwing a football when kneeling and see how much power you get.

I read an article long ago in which Parcels was telling a QB (Testaverde?) to keep doing squats if they wanted to last a long time.
Couldn't find it but this recent article alludes to the idea:http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=dallascowboys&id=4739089&city=dallas&src=desktop

Watch the highlight video above: Manning doesn't bend at the knees in his drops. To generate power you have to lower your hips and load the quads and hamstrings. Manning is using the right footwork and stepping in, but he's stiff-looking as if he can't use his legs to generate power.

Now, I know he has looked stiff for the past few years. So I guess this could just be aging. But the torn right quad is a possible explanation for why he couldn't throw hard- and it could well be healed up by next year.

 

[kelpapa]

We had this with Brady one season where he wasn't on the injury report (or had the troll injury reports, can't remember) and then his teammates came out after the season saying how injured he really was and how tough he was playing through it (I want to say it was 2003 and they were playing McNair and the media was making a big thing about how he was toughing it out through an injury)
 
Sort of tough to sit him completely against Oakland if they thought an extra week off would help his injury, but if three complete weeks off would have helped heal the injury it probably would have been the right call.  Then again, the poor play predated the injury.

I believe it was a sports hernia in 2005. It wasn't reported, until after the season ended.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Oh wow, I feel bad even joking about this topic now.  Thoughts and Prayers to all involved
 
Jay Glazer ‏@JayGlazer now
I reported on FOX Sat. AND Sun Peyton Manning actually had injuries to BOTH quads - strain (or partial tear) in one & deep bruise in other

 
I saw this report. Glazer also stated that Manning was basically completely healthy after the bye week. Now he's sent out a tweet saying he reported that Manning made "great strides" in the bye week.
 
Also, Peyton Manning lost something important to him. He knows that feeling now. That poor old son of a gun knows that feeling.

 

[Leather]

I bet that scoreboard operator is pretty happy.

 

[Stitch01]

http://www.boston.com/sports/articles/2004/02/26/brady_undergoes_shoulder_surgery/
 
This specifically was what I was thinking of.

 

[86spike]

A bad right quad could explain his poor throwing.

That's the push leg for a right handed QB, and the quads and hamstrings are the muscles that generate power from the legs when throwing. Try throwing a football when kneeling and see how much power you get.

I read an article long ago in which Parcels was telling a QB (Testaverde?) to keep doing squats if they wanted to last a long time.
Couldn't find it but this recent article alludes to the idea:http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=dallascowboys&id=4739089&city=dallas&src=desktop

Watch the highlight video above: Manning doesn't bend at the knees in his drops. To generate power you have to lower your hips and load the quads and hamstrings. Manning is using the right footwork and stepping in, but he's stiff-looking as if he can't use his legs to generate power.

Now, I know he has looked stiff for the past few years. So I guess this could just be aging. But the torn right quad is a possible explanation for why he couldn't throw hard- and it could well be healed up by next year.

 
He also took a late hit low int he first offensive possession which might have aggravated things.
 
while I do think some of Peyton's bad play last night was likely due to being banged up and or old/tired, he also did some good old fashioned choking.  A good example of mentally freezing up was the 3 and 5 play where he had 25 yards of open field and instead of hustling to the sticks for a 1st down he threw it into triple coverage for an incomplete and a punt.  For whatever reason Manning gets rattled in big games.  The track record is there and only the biggest of apologists can deny it.  I personally think his obsessive "everything must be exact" approach to the game is his own worst enemy.  When things don't go according to his script, he struggles to adjust and lets things bother him.  That leads to the chokes.

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

I bet that scoreboard operator is pretty happy.

 
Ha.  Well done. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

http://www.boston.com/sports/articles/2004/02/26/brady_undergoes_shoulder_surgery/
 
This specifically was what I was thinking of.

 
Brady also got destroyed in a preseason game against Washington maybe 5 years or so ago where he apparently played for a while with a separated shoulder and cracked ribs. I think he re-injured it again in a regular season game against Miami.

 

[dcmissle]

Oh wow, I feel bad even joking about this topic now.  Thoughts and Prayers to all involved
 
Jay Glazer ‏@JayGlazer now
I reported on FOX Sat. AND Sun Peyton Manning actually had injuries to BOTH quads - strain (or partial tear) in one & deep bruise in other

Hilarious. Thank you.

If it's this, I think he comes back. If it's neck/nerve stuff, I think we have seen the last of him.

I think Elway will want answers and is not inclined to make decisions based on sentiment or marketing.

 

[ifmanis5]

 
I saw this report. Glazer also stated that Manning was basically completely healthy after the bye week. Now he's sent out a tweet saying he reported that Manning made "great strides" in the bye week.
 
Also, Peyton Manning lost something important to him. He knows that feeling now. That poor old son of a gun knows that feeling.

Oh my leg! The war wound! It's literally the Hosni Bubarak playbook- you can't jail me, I'm about to die.
 
Nothing-Beats-That-Old-excuse.

 

[Ed Hillel]

We're talking about retirement, but isn't there almost as good a chance, or maybe better, that he just gets cut and is forced to retire against his will? If Manning retires, he's throwing away 19 million bucks each of the next two seasons. Denver saves a ton of money cutting him, though (16.5 million). If you're John Elway watching the second half of this season, are you keeping that cap hit? You can use that money to basically cover expenses for the Thomases. It's also possible he turns into Favre and becomes a mercenary for a year or two. Maybe he can play for the Bills.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

We're talking about retirement, but isn't there almost as good a chance, or maybe better, that he just gets cut and is forced to retire against his will? If Manning retires, he's throwing away 19 million bucks each of the next two seasons. Denver saves a ton of money cutting him, though (16.5 million). If you're John Elway watching the second half of this season, are you keeping that cap hit? You can use that money to basically cover expenses for the Thomases. It's also possible he turns into Favre and becomes a mercenary for a year or two. Maybe he can play for the Bills.

 
Elway has more information than anybody else about why Peyton's performance deteriorated so much.  I think it all comes down to that question.  Honestly, while Peyton looks pretty cooked, the alternatives are not very appealing.  Osweiler really hasn't shown much in his three years, the QB depth in this draft is pretty awful so its unlikely you get a guy like Bridgewater or Carr in the late 1st or 2nd, and there's nobody to trade for except Jay Cutler, which would be hilarious but isn't going to happen.  Its a real bind. 

 

[Stitch01]

Id be shocked if they outright cut Manning.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

It's funny...nobody remembers when Brady was in a walking boot. I don't think anyone's going to remember Peyton's quad(s) in the long run unless they're really looking for excuses.

 

[SumnerH]

Why when Peyton was asked after the game if he was playing with any injuries does he only mentioned the thigh bruise. Something sounds fishy about this "torn quad".

I'm not saying it's true (nor commenting on the "one in the left and one in the right" report), but the two aren't exclusive. Bruising is one of the primary symptoms of muscle tears.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Even if Peyton was injured, almost everyone is banged up by the playoffs. Part of the problem is that Manning has deteriorated to the point where he is completely ineffective when playing at less than 100%.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I'm not saying it's true (nor commenting on the "one in the left and one in the right" report), but the two aren't exclusive. Bruising is one of the primary symptoms of muscle tears.

 
Usually in the same leg, though.

 

[86spike]

We're talking about retirement, but isn't there almost as good a chance, or maybe better, that he just gets cut and is forced to retire against his will? If Manning retires, he's throwing away 19 million bucks each of the next two seasons. Denver saves a ton of money cutting him, though (16.5 million). If you're John Elway watching the second half of this season, are you keeping that cap hit? You can use that money to basically cover expenses for the Thomases. It's also possible he turns into Favre and becomes a mercenary for a year or two. Maybe he can play for the Bills.

 
The thing is... without Manning, Denver becomes a less attractive place for FAs, including those guys.
 
It's a bind for Elway, for sure.

 

[Jnai]

Suppose he was cut and still wants to play. Does Mannings special offense make him a hard 1 year sign? So much of what makes him successful is that teams are willing to build an entire system designed for him.

Long shot scenario, I know.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Suppose he was cut and still wants to play. Does Mannings special offense make him a hard 1 year sign? So much of what makes him successful is that teams are willing to build an entire system designed for him.

Long shot scenario, I know.

 
Agreed. Who would both roll the dice, and redo everything to fit him

 

[tims4wins]

 
Agreed. Who would both roll the dice, and redo everything to fit him

 
Oh I can think of one team...

 

[JimD]

Maybe the answer was right there in front of Elway on the field yesterday ... in the person of Andrew Luck.  Tank 2015, get a high draft pick and rebuild.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
Agreed. Who would both roll the dice, and redo everything to fit him

 
There are two teams in the AFC East that would pick him up tomorrow.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Watching ESPN right now, they are really sticking up for Manning and saying how horrific his injury was.
 
I remember when Brady played through his fucked up foot in 2007 and no one said anything. It was just 18-1, 18-1.

 

[wutang112878]

 
Agreed. Who would both roll the dice, and redo everything to fit him

 
I think the ideal scenario for him would be to play for a dome or warm weather team so that he can hopefully get 1 or more home playoff games and the cold wont affect him.  The team would also need to have QB issues and be good enough already such that bringing in swan song QB would make sense.  Arizona would actually fit this profile and I cant think of a better place, Denver included, for him to take one more shot.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
I think the ideal scenario for him would be to play for a dome or warm weather team so that he can hopefully get 1 or more home playoff games and the cold wont affect him.  The team would also need to have QB issues and be good enough already such that bringing in swan song QB would make sense.  Arizona would actually fit this profile and I cant think of a better place, Denver included, for him to take one more shot.

 
In the hypothetical, I think this nails it

 

[tims4wins]

 
I think the ideal scenario for him would be to play for a dome or warm weather team so that he can hopefully get 1 or more home playoff games and the cold wont affect him.  The team would also need to have QB issues and be good enough already such that bringing in swan song QB would make sense.  Arizona would actually fit this profile and I cant think of a better place, Denver included, for him to take one more shot.

 
Good call. That said, would Arians want to roll that dice, or would he like to build with Stanton?

 

[Infield Infidel]

 
I think the ideal scenario for him would be to play for a dome or warm weather team so that he can hopefully get 1 or more home playoff games and the cold wont affect him.  The team would also need to have QB issues and be good enough already such that bringing in swan song QB would make sense.  Arizona would actually fit this profile and I cant think of a better place, Denver included, for him to take one more shot.

 
 
Yeah, out of every playoff team Arizona had the biggest question mark at QB, and only Cinci is anywhere close. Houston among non-playoff teams might be another destination. 

 

[Wade Boggs Hair]

The NFC West isn't a great division for accumulating stats, particularly not with six games against SEA, STL, and SF.  Extending the hypothetical, what about Houston?  Softer division, decent supporting cast, two revenge games against IND?

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Good call. That said, would Arians want to roll that dice, or would he like to build with Stanton?

What are you going to build with Drew Stanton?

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Good call. That said, would Arians want to roll that dice, or would he like to build with Stanton?

 
Arians was Peyton's first quarterbacks coach in the NFL, fwiw

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

 
 
Yeah, out of every playoff team Arizona had the biggest question mark at QB, and only Cinci is anywhere close. Houston among non-playoff teams might be another destination. 

I think Houston would make a ton of sense. Above average running game, 2 quality WR, and a good defense. Plus a good coaching situation. He could beat up on JAX and TEN and fight Indy for the division

 

[E5 Yaz]

Watching ESPN right now, they are really sticking up for Manning and saying how horrific his injury was.
 
I remember when Brady played through his fucked up foot in 2007 and no one said anything. It was just 18-1, 18-1.

 
Well, there were a lot of Pats storylines that year

 

[wutang112878]

 
Good call. That said, would Arians want to roll that dice, or would he like to build with Stanton?

 
[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]Stanton's already 30 I'd say he is 'built' at this point.  If Arizona goes young and tries to draft a QB chances are that guy isnt leading them to 3 playoff wins whereas I think Manning would have a slightly better chance.[/SIZE]
 
 
 

 
Yeah, out of every playoff team Arizona had the biggest question mark at QB, and only Cinci is anywhere close. Houston among non-playoff teams might be another destination. 

 
I thought of them too.  I cant see Cincy moving on from Dalton unless maybe Lewis gets fired.  As for Houston, I think thats a real building situation, sure they won 7 games but I doubt Obrien thinks he could win a title next year with Manning & that roster.  Plus Obrien isnt exactly an established coach so if he had 1 decent run with Manning and then had to start over again with a young QB he might be on the hot seat at the end of year 3   I just think he would want to consistently build that team up instead of having up and down years

 

[wutang112878]

The NFC West isn't a great division for accumulating stats, particularly not with six games against SEA, STL, and SF.  Extending the hypothetical, what about Houston?  Softer division, decent supporting cast, two revenge games against IND?

 
After this exit I'm not sure if he wants any part of this right now.

 

[Jake Peavy's Demons]

 
Stanton's already 30 I'd say he is 'built' at this point.  If Arizona goes young and tries to draft a QB chances are that guy isnt leading them to 3 playoff wins whereas I think Manning would have a slightly better chance.
 
 
 
 
I thought of them too.  I cant see Cincy moving on from Dalton unless maybe Lewis gets fired.  As for Houston, I think thats a real building situation, sure they won 7 games but I doubt Obrien thinks he could win a title next year with Manning & that roster.  Plus Obrien isnt exactly an established coach so if he had 1 decent run with Manning and then had to start over again with a young QB he might be on the hot seat at the end of year 3   I just think he would want to consistently build that team up instead of having up and down years

Houston won 9 games this year, & if not for a couple breaks, could have easily finished 10-6, if not 11-5. General consensus around Houston is that O'Brien did a solid job given his revolving door at QB, & I'd be shocked if he was on the hot seat in year 3 unless he completely and utterly regressed to <5 wins this upcoming season.

 

[ifmanis5]

Watching ESPN right now, they are really sticking up for Manning and saying how horrific his injury was.
 
I remember when Brady played through his fucked up foot in 2007 and no one said anything. It was just 18-1, 18-1.

The protect Peyton Manning At All Costs playbook is sickening. The entire media does it. Does Peyton mail these guys unmarked stacks of cash? Is it his aww shucks middle of America accent? Favre got the same treatment yet Brady doesn't. I don't get it.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

 
There are two teams in the AFC East that would pick him up tomorrow.

 
And this is why they suck. The Bills who play in F'ing Buffalo, whether you think manning can't play in the cold or not, Buffalo is not a good idea and the JETS who did the same with Favre. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

In considering all these issues, its also important to remember just how long the odds are of any QB performing at a high level at this age.  Peyton turns 39 this spring.  Of all the Hall of Fame QBs or certain future Hall of Fame QBs from the Super Bowl era, the only ones to put up a full or nearly full season at a high level at age 39+ are Warren Moon in 1995 and Brett Favre in 2009.  The majority retired before 39 (a lot actually at 38) and, of those who played longer, the years from 39+ were almost universally very unkind in terms of performance and/or injury.  If you're going to bet on somebody to buck those odds and play at a high level at 39+, its probably not going to be a guy who has had four surgeries on his neck and back.

 

[soxfan121]

 
Good call. That said, would Arians want to roll that dice, or would he like to build with Stanton?

What are you going to build with Drew Stanton?

 
A dumpster fire. 

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah my bad I didn't realize Stanton was 30. Whoops.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Manning for Fitzgerald?

 

[soxfan121]

Arizona, while seemingly logical, isn't really an option given they signed Carson Palmer to an extension right before he blew out his knee. He is owed $14M guaranteed on the new deal, and the team would take a $10M dead money hit while freeing only $4.5M. IOW, it would cost Arizona dearly under the cap to dump Palmer and sign Manning. 
 
Then again, rather than start rookie Logan Thomas, the Cards and Bruce Arians rolled out Ryan Lindley. That tells you exactly what they think of Thomas. Stanton is also making decent backup money and the team is already facing a cap showdown with Larry Fitzgerald.

 

[86spike]

The protect Peyton Manning At All Costs playbook is sickening. The entire media does it. Does Peyton mail these guys unmarked stacks of cash? Is it his aww shucks middle of America accent? Favre got the same treatment yet Brady doesn't. I don't get it.

 
It's simple.  Brady's head coach generally acts like a dick toward that same media, so they hold a bias/grudge.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

With respect to AZ, am I missing something or didn't the Cardinals sign Carson Palmer to an extension just before he got injured? 
 
St. Louis would be a more likely landing spot I would think.