Average Reds said:
This is precisely the point.
Assuming that what has been presented in court is true, the evidence against AH is incredibly powerful because (1) it is easy to understand, and (2) it does not lend itself to alternative explanations.
We know from video surveillance that Hernandez drove Lloyd to the place where he was murdered minutes before the killing took place. We know that Hernandez then left the scene minutes later. We know that Hernandez was seen on video minutes after this waving a gun around. And we know that Hernandez engaged in an attempt to destroy evidence when confronted by police.
Hernandez' attorneys can parse this all they want, but no reasonable person can draw a conclusion from this set of facts that doesn't result in Hernandez going away for the rest of his life.
I agree to some degree based on our current knowledge of the evidence and I think eventually the V&N thread will house the detailed trial analysis once things pick up, but let me point out a few things. However, since all we have is the prosecutions version of the evidence and events, we really don't know the half of it.
First let me say, I think the evidence is pretty large in regards to Hernandez. Having said that, what we have is circumstantial in regards to placing him at the scene and having the means (weapons) to carry out the crime. All its going to take to start creating doubt is for some of the evidence we all feel is solid, to not be so solid. And since all we have is a recital of the evidence by the prosecutor at a bail hearing, we are in wait and see what the defense has mode.
For instance, surveillance video has this car presumably at home, on way to Lloyd's, from Lloyd's, murder scene, back at home, back at Enterprise. I'd imagine the video quality varies, what if one video is clear as a bell, but the Industrial park video is blurry to the point where you can't even tell what type of car there is? Or what if that video shows another car in the area at the same time? Or what if Hernandez' lawyers, aided with the actual circumstances presuming Hernandez has something that helps his cause, find a video that shows this car somewhere else around the time of the murder?
What if Lloyd has additional texts in his phone that bring the current ones we know about into a different context? Or what if he's got additional texts that cast some doubt on the current understanding of the events? Or what if he ends out of every 10 texts to his sister ends with "just so you know"?
Again, I'm not saying AH is innocent. I think the circumstantial evidence has pieced together a fairly tight puzzle, but the problem with a large circumstantial case, is all it takes is one piece not to fit and you've got reasonable doubt. Juries like to things fit together for big cases, like details about how someone was killed, and by who. Putting three men at a scene doesn't exactly finish the story. Add the fact that you've likely got three somewhat thug savvy defendants that might all clam up and its not as neat as you think.
When you add a contrasting piece of evidence, possibly another person or two, and some circumstances we don't know about to the mix and things might be stickier than we think at this point.
