2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

JM3

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I think a team would be kinda crazy to give up any asset for the right to pay Bagley $11.3m for 1 year followed by... having his RFA rights?

I mean maybe a team like the Grizzlies who are in the asset churning business could give a 2nd or something, but that's an underwater contract with no upside.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think a team would be kinda crazy to give up any asset for the right to pay Bagley $11.3m for 1 year followed by... having his RFA rights?

I mean maybe a team like the Grizzlies who are in the asset churning business could give a 2nd or something, but that's an underwater contract with no upside.
What about OKC and one of their lesser future 1st’s?
 

JM3

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What about OKC and one of their lesser future 1st’s?
OKC has to miss the playoffs for 1 more year so they don't give their 1st to the Hawks, so I guess Bagley could be helpful for that, but he doesn't really do anything to promote winning, & there's no reason to think he will in the future, so I'm not sure why they'd want to give up any of their admittedly excessive assets for the privilege.

Especially if there's no one they would be bidding against. They could certainly send a 2nd or 2 & hope he puts up enough #s that they could s&t him & get their capital spent back, though.
 

JM3

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I almost decided I was being too hard on Bagley, butnahhhhh let's go HARDER:

Bagley is 6'11 & athletic but...

1) He has 92 blocks in 3 NBA seasons comprising of 3013 minutes (1 more than Timelord had last season in 985 minutes).

2) His block % last season was 1.6...lower than James Harden, Kyrie Irving, etc.

He's supposed to have a decent touch buuuuut...

1) Hit 57.5% of his free throws last year (77 of 134), which is worse than Ben Simmons, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, etc.

2) Last year he was 129th among 189 qualifying players in TS% ahead of mostly only inefficient little people.

He's lazy.

1) Of the 179 players who qualified in steal % (Bagley wasn't one of them), only 5 posted a steal % worse than Bagley's 0.8% (Zubac/Porzingis/McDermott/Biyombo/RoLo).

2) His stats are almost identical, but worse, in almost every way from his 1st season compared to his 3rd season.
 

cheech13

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No way Bagley fetches a first rounder even with protections. High picks that flame out on their first contract usually fetch a 2nd at best.
 

benhogan

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What about OKC and one of their lesser future 1st’s?
yep, pretty much what OKC and their dozen 1sts are built for

clearly, Bagley has been atrocious for the 2nd pick but 14.5pts/7.5 rebs from a 21yr old is probably worth rolling the dice on if your OKC. What do they have to lose besides minutes going to Muscala/Favors
 

JM3

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yep, pretty much what OKC and their dozen 1sts are built for

clearly, Bagley has been atrocious for the 2nd pick but 14.5pts/7.5 rebs from a 21yr old is probably worth rolling the dice on if your OKC. What do they have to lose besides minutes going to Muscala/Favors
That's like the opposite of what OKC is building for & why they're collecting 1st round picks.

Empty points & rebounds is why MBIII got overdrafted to begin with.
 

benhogan

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That's like the opposite of what OKC is building for & why they're collecting 1st round picks.

Empty points & rebounds is why MBIII got overdrafted to begin with.
I guess it comes down to how you felt about Orlando gambling on Markelle, who was much more broken. He fetched a 2nd and protected 1st.

Not sure what you thought about TL last summer, but the same folks that wrote TL's OBIT seem to be at it again.
 
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JM3

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I guess it comes down to how you felt about Orlando gambling on Markelle, who was much more broken. He fetched a 2nd and protected 1st.

Not sure what you thought about TL last summer, but the same folks that wrote TL's OBIT seem to be at it again.
Gambling on Fultz was ~ok because he had outs to becoming a good NBA player if he got over his mental stuff & fixed his mechanics so there was an upside play.

Of course the 76ers got the better player on the much cheaper contract as a result (Maxey), but I can understand shooting your shot on that upside. Fultz was the consensus #1 pick for a reason. Also, the Magic acquired 2 seasons, not 1.

Bagley is what he is at this point. He was a bad 2nd pick & he's exactly the player he was in college 3 years later. There's no magical upside. He's just an obsolete player type who doesn't really understand basketball or have any discernible work ethic.

Like his best case scenario is playing enough to be a 20/9 guy who becomes a non-disastrous shooter but still doesn't pass, defend, or think the game well, & still will be antithetical to winning basketball.
 

JM3

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I've always been an irrational TL stan.

To the extent that anyone wrote off TL it should be for health reasons, not play reasons, though. He's the complete opposite type of player as Bagley. Blocks shot, passes, shoots at a very high %, actually cares, improves, etc.
 

benhogan

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Gambling on Fultz was ~ok because he had outs to becoming a good NBA player if he got over his mental stuff & fixed his mechanics so there was an upside play.

Of course the 76ers got the better player on the much cheaper contract as a result (Maxey), but I can understand shooting your shot on that upside. Fultz was the consensus #1 pick for a reason. Also, the Magic acquired 2 seasons, not 1.

Bagley is what he is at this point. He was a bad 2nd pick & he's exactly the player he was in college 3 years later. There's no magical upside. He's just an obsolete player type who doesn't really understand basketball or have any discernible work ethic.

Like his best case scenario is playing enough to be a 20/9 guy who becomes a non-disastrous shooter but still doesn't pass, defend, or think the game well, & still will be antithetical to winning basketball.
Unless Sac adds Simmons, it's all for naught anyway. The Kings view him as a starter and probably have a higher opinion than us. Like I said before I think he's been atrocious so far, but writing off a 21yr old this early seems premature. Giving away fat tails is never a good strategy, especially for teams that live in purgatory or are in full rebuild.
 

JM3

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Unless Sac adds Simmons, it's all for naught anyway. The Kings view him as a starter and probably have a higher opinion than us. Like I said before I think he's been atrocious so far, but writing off a 21yr old this early seems premature. Giving away fat tails is never a good strategy, especially for teams that live in purgatory or are in full rebuild.
Do they? They play him like 26 minutes a game. & it's not like they have a surfeit of frontcourt talent.

What's his path to becoming a good basketball player? Are there any comparable current basketball players to Bagley with a similar set of skills that he could aspire to be like?

What about his 1st 3 seasons makes you think he has an upside? Who is his upside comp & how is he going to hit that level?
 

scottyno

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The Lakers are going to have 8 former All-NBA guys, is that a record? I feel like it has to be.
 

scottyno

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The closest I can think of was the ‘86 Celtics with 7 All-Stars (not All-NBA).
Looks like some of the 60s Celtics teams had at least 5 all nba guys at once. I'm not sure if it's easier now because old guys that used to be good join teams as ring chasers or back then because there were fewer teams so you'd naturally have more per team and the winning teams racked up a ton from guys just for being winning teams.
 

Kliq

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I was talking to someone yesterday about how the Nets/Lakers are filling out their rosters, and basically the big difference I've noticed is that NBA teams are much savvier about valuing good role players. It is a different time than even in the Heat Big 3 era. In a league where Duncan Robinson is a $90 million player, there isn't going to be a lot of Mike Millers and Shane Battiers available for cheap money. There isn't a ton of talent available off the scrap heap for teams that are in win-now mode. The play now is to sign a lot of veteran ex-stars for cheap money (mainly because the existing stars on the team are friendly with them and will trust them more than unproven rookies or career JAGs) and hope that a couple of them still have something left come play-off time.
 

benhogan

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Do they? They play him like 26 minutes a game. & it's not like they have a surfeit of frontcourt talent.

What's his path to becoming a good basketball player? Are there any comparable current basketball players to Bagley with a similar set of skills that he could aspire to be like?

What about his 1st 3 seasons makes you think he has an upside? Who is his upside comp & how is he going to hit that level?
well they started him 42 of 43 games so, in the King's world, he's getting the spotlight introduction

I gave you Fultz but comps are always ample fodder to nitpick. Old friend Jeff Green (drafted 2yrs older) was a hollow stats guy that teams somewhat dreamed on (and traded protected 1sts for). Again Bagley's not a guy I want the Celtics to troll for but rebuilders/purgatory seems like a good home for him. The King's have been in perpetual rebuild mode so they'll most likely keep/dream on him... and continue to wear the scarlet letters "LD"
 

JM3

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well they started him 42 of 43 games so, in the King's world, he's getting the spotlight introduction

I gave you Fultz but comps are always ample fodder to nitpick. Old friend Jeff Green (drafted 2yrs older) was a hollow stats guy that teams somewhat dreamed on (and traded protected 1sts for). Again Bagley's not a guy I want the Celtics to troll for but rebuilders/purgatory seems like a good home for him. The King's have been in perpetual rebuild mode so they'll most likely keep/dream on him... and continue to wear the scarlet letters "LD"
Right...but Fultz is a completely different type of player. The only thing he has in common with Bagley is that he was also a high draft pick. We might as well use Anthony Bennett as a comp at that point.

Jeff Green has had an odd career. He's basically been similar levels of ~ok every season of his career from his 2nd through his 13th.

I don't see what about Green's career would give you faith that Bagley has a high ceiling, though, or would provide a team a positive return on a protected 1st round pick?

Teams have wasted 1sts on a wide variety of bad players over the year - like the Bucks traded a 2nd & a protected 1st to the Raptors for Grievis Vasquez.* Yes, trading a 1st for Bagley is a better idea than that, but that can't be the type of comp we're going for to show that Bagley will actually provide value to the acquiring team.

* GV played 23 games mediocrely for the Bucks before being shut down for bone spurs. He signed with the Nets in the offseason & played 3 games with them before getting cut, ending his NBA career. The Raptors players from that trade? Norman Powell & OG Anunoby.
 

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If someone was willing to pay him, he would get paid.
This is an important point.

Anyone decrying the collection of mothballs on both coasts at the moment only need remember than most of these cats were available for the whole league. Whether the Lakers or Nets meet in the finals will be determined by the likes of Lebron, Brow, Kyzuzu, Harden, and KD, not has-beens like Jordan and Aldridge or never-beens like Monk.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Looks like some of the 60s Celtics teams had at least 5 all nba guys at once. I'm not sure if it's easier now because old guys that used to be good join teams as ring chasers or back then because there were fewer teams so you'd naturally have more per team and the winning teams racked up a ton from guys just for being winning teams.
Leagues were the size of divisions and there was no FA. Same thing with the Yankees back in 50’s.
 

benhogan

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Right...but Fultz is a completely different type of player. The only thing he has in common with Bagley is that he was also a high draft pick. We might as well use Anthony Bennett as a comp at that point.

Jeff Green has had an odd career. He's basically been similar levels of ~ok every season of his career from his 2nd through his 13th.

I don't see what about Green's career would give you faith that Bagley has a high ceiling, though, or would provide a team a positive return on a protected 1st round pick?

Teams have wasted 1sts on a wide variety of bad players over the year - like the Bucks traded a 2nd & a protected 1st to the Raptors for Grievis Vasquez.* Yes, trading a 1st for Bagley is a better idea than that, but that can't be the type of comp we're going for to show that Bagley will actually provide value to the acquiring team.

* GV played 23 games mediocrely for the Bucks before being shut down for bone spurs. He signed with the Nets in the offseason & played 3 games with them before getting cut, ending his NBA career. The Raptors players from that trade? Norman Powell & OG Anunoby.
Fultz is a top pick that fell flat on his face the first few seasons, he was way worse than Bagley. That's it, nothing too exact here. No comp will be perfect. It's why I think it's fruitless to provide them, they can be nitpicked away. Heck, I think Orlando re-signing MF to $50MM was a mistake. But some people loved that deal and maybe it made sense for a team like Orlando (but certainly not for the Celtics). Anthony Bennett avg 4ppg/12mpg, started 4 NBA games, spent time in the G-League/Dunkin Donuts, and was out of the NBA after his rookie deal. I doubt that's MB3s outcome. Maybe Micheal Beasley is his future, IDK?

I really have zero idea how a 22yr old Marvin Bagley will turn out. Maybe he has not been properly used, not in the right situation, poorly coached or he's just a lazy POS with no talent? For the 3rd time, I agree his adv metrics have been atrocious during his 19-21yr old seasons. For a team like the Celtics, no thanks. BUT a late/protected 1st, when a team like OKC owns a dozen of them, has a different value proposition. Plus they have cap space galore. It all depends on the team/situation. The Magic, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder of the world might think they can fix/better utilize him as we've recently seen with flawed youngsters like Christian Wood, Chris Bouchard, & Kevin Porter Jr. Doubt the Kings even accept a protected 1st for MB3, they'll want to gamble on him.

BTW we can cite protected/late 1sts and 2nd rounders that turned out glorious all day long or immediately flamed out. That doesn't mean a thing here.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fultz is a top pick that fell flat on his face the first few seasons, he was way worse than Bagley. That's it, nothing too exact here. No comp will be perfect. It's why I think it's fruitless to provide them, they can be nitpicked away. Heck, I think Orlando re-signing MF to $50MM was a mistake. But some people loved that deal and maybe it made sense for a team like Orlando (but certainly not for the Celtics). Anthony Bennett avg 4ppg/12mpg, started 4 NBA games, spent time in the G-League/Dunkin Donuts, and was out of the NBA after his rookie deal. I doubt that's MB3s outcome. Maybe Micheal Beasley is his future, IDK?

I really have zero idea how a 22yr old Marvin Bagley will turn out. Maybe he has not been properly used, not in the right situation, poorly coached or he's just a lazy POS with no talent. For the 3rd time, I agree his adv metrics have been atrocious during his 19-21yr old seasons. For a team like the Celtics, no thanks. BUT a late/protected 1st, when a team like OKC owns a dozen of them, has a different value proposition. Plus they have cap space galore. It all depends on the team/situation. The Magic, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder of the world might think they can fix/better utilize him as we've recently seen with flawed youngsters like Christian Wood, Chris Bouchard, & Kevin Porter Jr. Doubt the Kings even accept a protected 1st for MB3, they'll want to gamble on him.

BTW we can cite protected/late 1sts and 2nd rounders that turned out glorious all day long, but that doesn't mean a thing here.
They are both pretty flawed. If Fultz could add a reliable 3 point shot, he'd be a decent NBA player and worth his contract as a combo guard. He has good length but hasn't been much of a defender to date. He's also really only played 1 season and was injured early last year. It's hard to know if there was any year to year growth or not, as he didn't play. If you squint, maybe he turns into Dejounte Murray. Orlando also wasn't going anywhere so taking a gamble on Fultz is fine. They gave up a 1st and 2nd round pick (21st and 33rd picks, ended up being Tyrese Maxey and Carsen Edwards).

Bagley has athleticism but his measurements aren't that great for his height (7'1 wingspan, 8'9 standing reach). His wingspan is an inch more than Romeo and Jaylen. His standing reach is 1.5 inches less than Tatum's. He's shown some ability to shoot the 3, but it's clearly a work in progress. He's also a mediocre at best FT shooter and regressed in his 2nd full season (.691 to .575, the .806 was on 31 FTA, doesn't count). Bagley's work ethic has also been questioned. If I were OKC I'd probably move one of the 1st rounders (lottery protected and the worst of the picks). He has offensive upside and has decent size at the 4. Giving his standing reach though, he's never going to be that shot blocking presence.

Fultz has more value/upside based on position alone though. Bagley does have the benefit of being 10 months younger. Ironically, he's played 122 more minutes than Fultz. That's kind of crazy considering he missed a full year to injury and came out a year later. Just shows you how much time Fultz has missed in his first 4 years. Fultz has played in 113 out of 308 games. Bagley 118/226.

All things equal, I'd take Fultz over Bagley 10 times out of 10, especially on the C's. Fultz might actually have a role here. Bagley would be a worse Horford. Fultz is signed for 2 more years though, so all things aren't equal.

20 years ago, Bagley would have been a lesser Derrick Coleman. He'd get his, but his team would be bad in the process. He'd never show much improvement because he didn't have to. Nowadays, without a 3 point shot, the ability to switch, and/or rim protect, he's pretty much obsolete. And even with a 3 point shot, unless he's Brook Lopez or Channing Frye, he's still obsolete. I'd bet on the athleticism but I'm not sure he offers any more value than Juan Hernangomez. The latter has a better wingspan. I couldn't find his standing reach. Again, Bagley's measurements aren't bad, they are just bad for someone 6'11 or someone who is supposed to be a rim protector. As a wing, they are fine.

Honestly, I'd almost be tempted to take Mo Bamba over Bagley, The former is probably readily available and at a cheaper price with Jon Isaac returning. You can't teach a 7'10 wing span and 9'5 standing reach. He's also been better from 3 (96/295, .325 vs 71/226, .314), though barely, They are also similar FT shooters (.646 to .663, but Mo is trending up, Bagley down). Bamba's rates across the board are all higher actually (reb, assist, steals blocks). That could be team related/playing time related though, as it's easier to put up better rate stats in 15 minutes than 25 minutes. Bamba is 10 months older than Bagley though, and a few days older than Fultz.

Anyway, I spent more time than I wanted to discussing Marvin Bagley.
 

JM3

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Fultz is a top pick that fell flat on his face the first few seasons, he was way worse than Bagley. That's it, nothing too exact here. No comp will be perfect. It's why I think it's fruitless to provide them, they can be nitpicked away. Heck, I think Orlando re-signing MF to $50MM was a mistake. But some people loved that deal and maybe it made sense for a team like Orlando (but certainly not for the Celtics). Anthony Bennett avg 4ppg/12mpg, started 4 NBA games, spent time in the G-League/Dunkin Donuts, and was out of the NBA after his rookie deal. I doubt that's MB3s outcome. Maybe Micheal Beasley is his future, IDK?

I really have zero idea how a 22yr old Marvin Bagley will turn out. Maybe he has not been properly used, not in the right situation, poorly coached or he's just a lazy POS with no talent? For the 3rd time, I agree his adv metrics have been atrocious during his 19-21yr old seasons. For a team like the Celtics, no thanks. BUT a late/protected 1st, when a team like OKC owns a dozen of them, has a different value proposition. Plus they have cap space galore. It all depends on the team/situation. The Magic, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder of the world might think they can fix/better utilize him as we've recently seen with flawed youngsters like Christian Wood, Chris Bouchard, & Kevin Porter Jr. Doubt the Kings even accept a protected 1st for MB3, they'll want to gamble on him.

BTW we can cite protected/late 1sts and 2nd rounders that turned out glorious all day long or immediately flamed out. That doesn't mean a thing here.
I'm not looking for a perfect comp... I'm looking for:

1) What Bagley's realistic path to being a useful player on a good team is; OR

2) A player who plays a similar game to Bagley in today's NBA who is or could be a positive player on a good team.

Re: Crespo - Poor man's Coleman & homeless man's Amare were the 2 best case comps I could think of.

The Thunder are accumulating picks to try to hit the lottery or have the ammo to buy the lotto. Until then, the best use of their cap is RECEIVING picks to take on bad contracts, not giving them up to take on bad contracts.

Bagley is a useless archetype. Jarrett Culver is a better YOLO option than Bagley because if he hits his best case he's a very useful playoff contributor. He almost certainly won't, & probably 90% of the time Bagley will have a better career than Culver, but that's because Bagley will be a somewhat detrimental player for 20-25 mpg & Culver will be out of the league.
 

JM3

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Also, I had no clue the Raptors got Norm/OG from the GV trade, but once I went down that rabbit hole I had to post it lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bulls got a nice little player for free when the Nets ran out of roster spots and had to waive rebounding machine Alize Johnson. I remember 5-6 years ago I was intrigued when Ainge worked him out after he put his name in the draft after being one of the countries leading rebounders but he later pulled out. Watch out for him to be one of those late bloomers who maybe figure things out as he gets into his late 20’s.
 

JM3

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I don't have any data to back this up, but I feel like people named after alcohol are empirically more likely to be late bloomers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't have any data to back this up, but I feel like people named after alcohol are empirically more likely to be late bloomers.
Nice.

I was just reading how he was 5’9 in HS before a growth spurt and he credited his former size to him developing strong work habits back when he was a small guard fighting for everything he could.
 

benhogan

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Bulls got a nice little player for free when the Nets ran out of roster spots and had to waive rebounding machine Alize Johnson. I remember 5-6 years ago I was intrigued when Ainge worked him out after he put his name in the draft after being one of the countries leading rebounders but he later pulled out. Watch out for him to be one of those late bloomers who maybe figure things out as he gets into his late 20’s.
Yea, good pickup for the Bulls.

That's the type of player that would have been nice as the 15th man here. Good backstory. Kind of guy that hits the floor with the intent of doing all the little things to winning. Instead a guy, like Jabari Parker, whose only value is scoring (which is really hard to do with the inconsistent play of the 15th man). Points from the bench are impt, but when you are so far down the rotation 14/15, JP will never get enough reps to prove he can score efficiently (while giving it up on the other end)

BUT its really hard to criticize Brad since he's done all these under-radar clever moves this offseason
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yea, good pickup for the Bulls.

That's the type of player that would have been nice as the 15th man here. Good backstory. Kind of guy that hits the floor with the intent of doing all the little things to winning. Instead a guy, like Jabari Parker, whose only value is scoring (which is really hard to do with the inconsistent play of the 15th man). Points from the bench are impt, but when you are so far down the rotation 14/15, JP will never get enough reps to prove he can score efficiently (while giving it up on the other end)

BUT its really hard to criticize Brad since he's done all these under-radar clever moves this offseason
If I were running Team Alize I’d never consider Boston after sitting for the Nets last year. This kid needs an opportunity for minutes and numbers to get paid in two years. I don’t see any reason why he can’t be a $6-10m/yr guy after some exposure with the Bulls.
 

benhogan

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If I were running Team Alize I’d never consider Boston after sitting for the Nets last year. This kid needs an opportunity for minutes and numbers to get paid in two years. I don’t see any reason why he can’t be a $6-10m/yr guy after some exposure with the Bulls.
Team Alize got him a gtd 2yr deal (min.) which is decent work by them after 49 career NBA games. He'll still be behind several players (like DJ Jr) but he'll get more NBA minutes to shine (and get those NBA riches)
 

Sam Ray Not

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Perusing the 2011-2012 NBA All-Stars on their 10th anniversary…

• 9 currently play for the Lakers or Nets
• 4 play for the other 28 teams combined
• 11 are retired or dead
 

JM3

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Name the rogue 4 would be an interesting game if I hadn't already looked up the answer.