2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
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In some of those rural counties with odd fandoms, you have to wonder if a family or two of five members each with Facebook accounts was able to swing the vote.amarshal2 said:
It's interesting that New England is not the most likely fan-friend, or the second most likely either, for any team. I guess that's a result of the relative isolation of New England, and the fact that we border an area with two teams.
There's probably some more Jets fans in Florida and down south, but they only counted for 3/5 of a vote...Omar's Wacky Neighbor said:
Looking at the spread of alliegance to New England as the playoffs progressed...it's like watching Napolean's attempt to concquer Moscow...Baltimore is like the resurgent Hapsburgs...or something like that.drleather2001 said:
The final chart is telling. Since Facebook friendship is reciprocal, for every Fan-of-team-A who has a friend who is a Fan-of-team-B, the Fan-of-team-B necessarily has a friend who is a Fan-of-team-A. So the fact that the teams supported by the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th most common friends of Fans-of-NYJ do not have the NYJs fans in their top 5 most common friends indicates that Cowboys fans, Steelers fans, Patriots fans and Eagles fans have more friends than do Jets fans.
NYJetscap.com misfired a bit on his analysis of the Pats cap situation (i.e., Pats are not in trouble by any means), but he has now posted a more in-depth piece on the Jets cap:
http://www.nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part1.html
Assumes the following:
Plus:
The huge elephant in the room? Sure the players cut won't be missed, but the rest of the roster also aren't worth much, not even counting Sanchez. Take a look at their depth chart:
http://www.newyorkjets.com/team/depth-chart.html
The offensive side, especially, is just bare. Top RB combo of Shonn Greene (UFA), and Bilal Powell, Holmes, Hill, Kerley, and Edwards as WRs, no Dustin Keller (UFA), and the truly scary backups at the line (although the OL performed better than expected in overall DVOA for 2012).
Even on the defensive side, you have a few starters as UFAs in Yeremiah Bell, Mike DeVito (Pats pickup?), and Laron Landry. Then of course, there's the $12m-$15m in new Revis contract if they want to keep him (trading him also hurts the cap room, not help), which will eat significantly eat into that shiny new cap dollars.
It's not just filling out the rest of the roster with the new $29m cap room. There are just so many holes as-is within the current roster to begin with. I say things are still pretty bleak both this year and next, even if the "cap hell" can be cooled down a bit.
http://www.nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part1.html
Assumes the following:
- Cut: Jason Smith, Bart Scott, Eric Smith, and Tim Tebow
- Cut: Calvin Pace does not agree to a ~$4m in new/reduced salary and is cut
- Reduced: Sione Po'uha at $2.75m for essentially a 1yr deal
Plus:
- Guarantee Mangold's roster bonus to save $2.4m
- Reduce salary for Santonio Holmes to gain $5.9m cap / $3.5m cash (betting Holmes can only gather max. $7.5m with an offset clause if cut & signs elsewhere)
- Restructure David Harris to gain $6.98m cap
- Extend Cromartie to save $2.19m cap
- Convert salary to signing bonus to gain $6m cap
- 2013 Cap: $94,669,553
- 2013 Cash: $109,366,079
- 2013 Cap space: $29,830,447
- Gone: Pace, Scott, Tebow, Eric Smith, and Jason Smith.
- Committed 'til 2015: Cromartie and Harris
- Revis: option to sign him with the extra room
The huge elephant in the room? Sure the players cut won't be missed, but the rest of the roster also aren't worth much, not even counting Sanchez. Take a look at their depth chart:
http://www.newyorkjets.com/team/depth-chart.html
The offensive side, especially, is just bare. Top RB combo of Shonn Greene (UFA), and Bilal Powell, Holmes, Hill, Kerley, and Edwards as WRs, no Dustin Keller (UFA), and the truly scary backups at the line (although the OL performed better than expected in overall DVOA for 2012).
Even on the defensive side, you have a few starters as UFAs in Yeremiah Bell, Mike DeVito (Pats pickup?), and Laron Landry. Then of course, there's the $12m-$15m in new Revis contract if they want to keep him (trading him also hurts the cap room, not help), which will eat significantly eat into that shiny new cap dollars.
It's not just filling out the rest of the roster with the new $29m cap room. There are just so many holes as-is within the current roster to begin with. I say things are still pretty bleak both this year and next, even if the "cap hell" can be cooled down a bit.
I don't really think it's that bare. The OL is very good and I think the receivers are decent, too. The salary cap articles didn't mention Keller, but healthy he's a solid receiver. Holmes is very good and I have to admit I think Kerley was a nice draft pick. Hill has talent and will have to see if he emerges -- I tend to think stone hands are stone hands, but perhaps not. I agree Greene is a hack, though Powell might be okay.
The reason we think it's bare is the constant excuse making for Sanchez that shifted blame onto the OL and the receivers. In fact, as has been noted the OL was really very good and while the receiving corp was hard hit by injuries, if Keller is back I think they're pretty decent.
Which is a long way of saying that Sanchez is the sucking hole at the heart of this offense, and long may he run. If the Jets can squeeze out the cap room for a Matt Flynn type or, barring that, just sign a competent Matt Moore type, I think they'll be better than people are saying around here.
The reason we think it's bare is the constant excuse making for Sanchez that shifted blame onto the OL and the receivers. In fact, as has been noted the OL was really very good and while the receiving corp was hard hit by injuries, if Keller is back I think they're pretty decent.
Which is a long way of saying that Sanchez is the sucking hole at the heart of this offense, and long may he run. If the Jets can squeeze out the cap room for a Matt Flynn type or, barring that, just sign a competent Matt Moore type, I think they'll be better than people are saying around here.
I can see the Jets thinking "Let's do what worked last year for somebody else" and drafting a toolsy 2nd or 3rd round qb, making a big thing out of it and making it even harder for Mark to focus on his Maxim photo shoots. They need to start over and allow more than one competent impact coach run that ship. Either get a new parcells get Rex to bring in Norv type coordinators and not Sporanos. It's unreal how incompetent this team is. Having 2 teams with 0 rings in 40+ years, followed by the Bills, is a blessing.
SeoulSoxFan said:
This years projection is priceless, but maybe he is onto something. If they just make these cuts and have Scott off the books in 2014, and after this year they cut Sanchez and Holmes, and do as little of the 'plus' stuff as possible [basically avoid extending the pain], and they only sign guys to 1 year deals this offseason... Then going into 2014 they would have ~$40M in cap room, before adding in rookie contracts from 2013. Basically, they would be on cap parole instead of being in cap jail. They would still have a ton of roster spots to fill, and a big void of talent but if they got through this 1 year of pain, and then got a high pick in 2014 and made it count, then they could be on the upswing quickly.
SeoulSoxFan said:
The article is nonsense on stilts. It's worse than a fanwank, it's like a fanbukake compilation.
Let me give you an example. David Harris is going to make 10.9 million in salary in 2013 no matter what (it's guaranteed). Then he's in a contract year in 2014, with 4.9 million in salary which isn't guaranteed but there's just about no way they cut him. So why in the world does he sign the proposed contract which is really just paying him the same $15 million he was going to get anyway over the next two years and is then, more or less, a one year 4.8 million extension with $15 million in future salary that he's never going to see?
Every one of the proposed extensions is one the player won't take. The whole thing is a joke.
EDIT: The fundamental problem the guy has is that he doesn't realize that there are non-guaranteed contracts that are functionally guaranteed because of dead money concerns. Take Cromartie--Cro has minimal guaranties at this point, but the Jets essentially have to pay him $9 million in 2013 or cut him, and they have to make essentially the same choice in 2014. Well giving him $25 million in truly guaranteed money in 2013 and 2014 in exchange for a four year extension with no guaranties after that isn't any kind of terrific deal--there's only about $7 million of new money in 2013 and 2014 beyond what he was likely to make and Cromartie passes up the chance for a brand spanking new 5/50 deal with 25 guaranteed after 2014.
Adding to the NYJCaps myth, Schefter reports Jets will not cut Tebow before the new league year: http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8910115/new-york-jets-cut-tim-tebow-march-12-sources
According to http://www.jetnation.com/2012/03/25/tim-tebows-contract-details/ Tebow is not due a roster bonus. Does that mean that by not cutting him before March, Jets are due for a full $2.5m cap hit, forgoing the $1m savings?
According to http://www.jetnation.com/2012/03/25/tim-tebows-contract-details/ Tebow is not due a roster bonus. Does that mean that by not cutting him before March, Jets are due for a full $2.5m cap hit, forgoing the $1m savings?
Speaking as a Jets fan, this is exactly what I hope they do. However, between Woody trying to sell tickets and Rex trying to save his job, I fear it's not what they are going to do.wutang112878 said:
Here are the Jets' 2013 Home/Away opponents:
HOME:
AWAY:
Most generous case: 8-8.
HOME:
- Dolphins < W
- Bills < W
- Patriots < W
- Raiders < W
- Saints < L
- Steelers < L
- Buccaneers < W
- Browns < L
AWAY:
- Dolphins < L
- Bills < W
- Patriots < L
- Panthers < W
- Falcons < L
- Ravens < L
- Bengals < L
- Titans < W
Most generous case: 8-8.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but given this is the "most generous case", then why are they losing at home to the Browns?SeoulSoxFan said:
SeanBerry said:
I feel for you. I like to hate your team, but respect the fact that you realize the errors in their ways. So I really do hope they do the right thing for you and the small portion of the fanbase like you that gets it. Sadly, it probably wont be until the new GM gets Woody to be hands off, or the fan base as a whole tells Woody, by not buying his tickets, that they are fed up with the short-sighted management that this actually gets fixed.
Serious question, because I havent read up that much on him, but is there a chance that the new GM really gets to operate in isolation without pressure from Woody? I havent gotten a sense of whether or not to expect more of the same or if Woody is actually coming to his senses.
After causing a stir by saying the decision to play Ducasse was from "high above" (link) Jets OL coach DeGuglielmo has been fired. Former assistant OL coach Mike Devlin has been promoted in his place.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jets/jets-fire-offensive-line-coach-dave-deguglielmo-1.4568643
It's not a surprise after the Ducasse cannonball, but I thought DeGuglielmo did an unexpectedly solid job, especially getting Austin Howard to play (at least) like a decent NFL player.
I believe this marks no less than 10 coaching changes this year.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jets/jets-fire-offensive-line-coach-dave-deguglielmo-1.4568643
It's not a surprise after the Ducasse cannonball, but I thought DeGuglielmo did an unexpectedly solid job, especially getting Austin Howard to play (at least) like a decent NFL player.
I believe this marks no less than 10 coaching changes this year.
And here's a lovely video of the Jets' new special teams assistant coach getting bonked in the squash by a football.
Cue Yakety Sax.
Cue Yakety Sax.
As many have predicted, the ax has fallen on a few veterans, namely Bart Scott, Jason Smith, and Calvin Pace: https://twitter.com/MMehtaNYDN/status/299591428688986113
SeoulSoxFan said:
Can't Wait....... for Bart Scott to sign the veteran minimum on the Jags.
Actually after the Broke 30/30, I gained some respect for Scott. I hate when that happens.
Oh Tanny, you scamp.
Extension signed extension March 9, 2012.
2011 season: 18 picks and 8 fumbles lost. 26 turnovers. Exact same numbers as this season.
You have to consider:TomRicardo said:
There is only one county in the United States that the Jets are the No. 1 team. GO NASSAU
1. Many of them are now Giants fans
2. Many of those who still are won't admit it, even anonymously.
Jets officially cut Eric Smith, Jason Smith, and Calvin Pace today. Bart Scott not among the cuts today.
https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/303935677941305345
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BartScottreleased&src=hash
Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
And yes, everyone on Twitter: The #Jets decided they, ahem, couldn't wait. #BartScottreleased
Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
And yes, everyone on Twitter: The #Jets decided they, ahem, couldn't wait. #BartScottreleased
With the dead money, the cap savings [according to nyjetscap.com] were: Smith $12M, Pac $8.5M, Smith $3M, Scott $7.1M gives them ~$30M savings and gets their cap number to $117M
Because it puts a smile on my face, their biggest cap hits / dead money hits if cut on the roster are:
- Harris $13M cap hit / $13.5M in dead money
- Sanchize $12.8M / $17M
- Holmes $12.5M / $11.2M
- Cromartie $10.7M / $9.5M
- Ferguson $10.7M / $17.8M
- Mangold $9.1M / $9M
- Revis $9M / $12M
Roughly $78M on 7 guys, put differently ~13% of the roster spots is taking up 65% of the cap. This is great context when we complain about Mankin's contract
Because it puts a smile on my face, their biggest cap hits / dead money hits if cut on the roster are:
- Harris $13M cap hit / $13.5M in dead money
- Sanchize $12.8M / $17M
- Holmes $12.5M / $11.2M
- Cromartie $10.7M / $9.5M
- Ferguson $10.7M / $17.8M
- Mangold $9.1M / $9M
- Revis $9M / $12M
Roughly $78M on 7 guys, put differently ~13% of the roster spots is taking up 65% of the cap. This is great context when we complain about Mankin's contract
People said Tanny was a great capologist and wanted him working for the Pats in that capacity.
Yeah, I still can't figure it out.
Yeah, I still can't figure it out.
wutang112878 said:
Not just $78M on 7 guys, but also on the wrong guys. Only Revis is clearly worth the cap hit for 2013.
I think Cromartie's a reasonable value at $10 MM. He had a really nice year this year.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Yeah, I agree that if he can maintain the same performance level that is a reasonable price. I think there's some doubt about whether he'll play at that level again though.Super Nomario said:
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Its just too much fun putting the numbers together. I would argue, the problem isnt just overspending on 7 guys, its so much more than that. He did this for a run in 2011 and 12, and went into 2013 knowing the cap apocalypse was arriving, he only had 1 year left with Revis, and he didnt have the picks to restock the cabinets. He kept the charges probably artificially low in 2011 and 2012 by 20 to 25M for these guys, and now has no outs. Of these 7 guys the only ones who could be cut and to save money this year is Cromartie and Holmes and the savings is only $1.2M each, so a pointless cut considering the need to replace them.
It seems as though he wanted a 2 year run, was going to take his medicine or try to wiggle out of it somehow in 2013 and then 2014 could be pretty clean. Then they can cut Sanchez, Cromartie, Holmes and save $26M and their remaining cap charges are at ~$63M. If he remained he would have screwed that cleanliness up I am sure, but $63M is workable even though he would need a QB, to resign Revis and get some NFL caliber WRs on the team.
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| Harris | 4 | 12 | 13 | 7 | |||
| Sanchez | 17.2 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 13.8 | |
| Holmes | 3.2 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 9.2 | ||
| Cromartie | 2.2 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 10.7 | |||
| Ferguson | 9.8 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 13 |
| Mangold | 5.2 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 9 |
| Revis | 11 | 11.5 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| Total | 52.6 | 58.7 | 77.8 | 65.1 | 51.6 | 41.2 | 22 |
| Total w/o Sanchez | 35.4 | 50.9 | 65 | 52 | 36 | 27.4 | 22 |
Dogman2 said:
I know we've done this dance before but Tanny's signature move is the "underpay a guy in year 1-2 and overpay late" which allows him to sign all kinds of guys and it makes him look (to idiot Jet fans and Peter King) like a cap god when in fact he's just pushing off a day of reckoning.
Right but signing those guys and having a ~ 2 year window is a terrible, terrible strategy. Even with back to back AFCCG appearances, it makes no sense handcuffing a roster over the long haul.
Anyone with any understanding of the cap should have realized how short-sighted Tannys strategy was, especially when he did the exact same thing with 7 high priced guys. Even King should be smart enough to see this
Dogman2 said:
And to make matters worse those 2 AFCCG appearances convinced them that Sanchez was a franchise QB. Thus handing him that idiotic contract extension.
They got what they wanted really: immediate attention by hiring Rex and winning a few playoff games right away (the first season by astounding luck when opponents missed 5 straight FGs in the playoffs). But their model wasn't sustainable long-term and they didn't win anything in that short window and now they're fucked fucked fucked.
Wasn't their cap strategy always keep pushing until the huge TV deal bumped the cap a huge # 1 year and take the hit then? Unfortunately, that never came.
NortheasternPJ said:
Yup. Don't forgot that they started the "sign a guy cheap in year one" plan in 2008 (Mangini's last year) with Pace and Fanecca, so they put together a reasonably solid four year stretch before it blew up on them last year.
The team is now kind of fucked, it wasn't sustainable, they benefitted massively from being very healthy until 2012 and from playing in a weak division, but it wasn't a terrible run.
What a fucking idiot. Sherman is the first Stanford player I've ever actively rooted against in the nfl. Even Luck on Indy I will give like a half a pass.
How many Stanford DBs or WRs play in the NFL?
Forget the school; listen to Chris Carter, who has told us honestly and accurately what concerns elite players at these positions in the League -- Where's my money? How are my stats? And, many times but not always, let's talk trash.
I'm pleased that thanks to the poison pill in his most recent contract, Revis this year has to STFU and play. Otherwise, he'd be threatening this and that to tap again the Jets' ATM.
It's generalizing, but this underscores why the chances of seeing Percy Harvin in a Pats uni are slim and none. BB would have to be out of his effing mind to trade for him without immediately satisfying his financial demands. And the next time the Pats pay going rate for an elite WR (or corner) will be the first time.
Forget the school; listen to Chris Carter, who has told us honestly and accurately what concerns elite players at these positions in the League -- Where's my money? How are my stats? And, many times but not always, let's talk trash.
I'm pleased that thanks to the poison pill in his most recent contract, Revis this year has to STFU and play. Otherwise, he'd be threatening this and that to tap again the Jets' ATM.
It's generalizing, but this underscores why the chances of seeing Percy Harvin in a Pats uni are slim and none. BB would have to be out of his effing mind to trade for him without immediately satisfying his financial demands. And the next time the Pats pay going rate for an elite WR (or corner) will be the first time.
They're like unicorns. But there was Coy Wire and Tank Williams and so on. Chris Draft got some tick, and... holy shit how embarrassing is this?
Randy Vataha was one of my favorite Pats as a little kid. Unfortunately, that was 40 years ago...
Sherman's interesting... he was on Van Pelt & Russillo during Super Bowl Week, and he was a really good interview. He was pretty fascinating and behaved like an intelligent Stanford Man. He essentially said Richard Sherman NFL Football Player™ is a completely different persona from Richard Sherman. He expressed amusement that other football players would take the bait and fall into this juvenile behavior. Sherman does it for shits and giggles.
(Sherman said he went after Brady during the game this year because Brady was talking shit like a total dick earlier in the game when the Pats had the lead, then started acting like a little bitch when the Seahawks came from behind. Which fits with other stories we've heard about Our Tom. But he's got no "off the field" beef with Brady.)
Sherman's interesting... he was on Van Pelt & Russillo during Super Bowl Week, and he was a really good interview. He was pretty fascinating and behaved like an intelligent Stanford Man. He essentially said Richard Sherman NFL Football Player™ is a completely different persona from Richard Sherman. He expressed amusement that other football players would take the bait and fall into this juvenile behavior. Sherman does it for shits and giggles.
(Sherman said he went after Brady during the game this year because Brady was talking shit like a total dick earlier in the game when the Pats had the lead, then started acting like a little bitch when the Seahawks came from behind. Which fits with other stories we've heard about Our Tom. But he's got no "off the field" beef with Brady.)
