2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014

luckiestman

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Shelterdog said:
 
Maybe, but just eyeballing it Carolina and the Cardinals have fairly low VARs this year (13 and 5). What's weird about the Jets is they play tough against the Saints and Pats but then they got demolished by the Titans and Bills.
 
I'm a Jets fan that cannot stomach Rex as HC. I dislike the owner too, so it has been a rough couple of years for my football fandom. Rex operates almost fully on emotion. The highs are so high and the lows are so low. He is similar to Herm the worm in that he can get the team fired up, but better than the worm because he can at least coach defense (herm can coach nothing well).  Rex talking so much and then actually tearing up after a loss totally lost me as a fan and I think that happened year one. I had a lot of fans talking to me about Super Bowl tickets after the Jets beat the Pats a couple years back; I  expected them to blow it against Pittsburgh. 
 
Maybe Woody can hire Brad Stevens away from the Celtics or something, I dont know. Im willing to take someone that knows nothing about football and something about leadership that will hire a good staff (i'm joking, a little). I can;t believe this guy isn't gone. He gets headlines and that is all the owner cares about. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Ralphwiggum said:
I think overall Rex is a mediocre coach and his record reflects that. Too much is made of the successes he had in the two playoff runs, it is nice and all but talk about SSS. He can coach defense and give him decent personnel on that side of the ball and the D is going to be anywhere from good to great. On offense, he's the head coach and the buck stops with him. Obviously he was saddled with less than great QB play but did he do anything to make that unit better?

They were -97 in points this year which was about the same as the Browns and only the Texans and Jaguars were worse in the AFC. Getting the team to play for him when his back was against the wall from a coaching perspective is to me Classic Rex. That is what he's good at. Sustained above average performance not so much.

Sure the Jets could do much worse but as a coach of a team in the Jets division I am losing no sleep over Rex keeping his job. The Jets will be pesky while he is there for sure but they will be inconsistent as well.
 
I'm basically in the same boat.  You could definitely do worse than Rex but I think he's somewhat overrated as a coach around here, mainly because he has coached some really good games against the Pats over the years and because people tend to overrate the Xs and Os side of being a head coach in general.  The most important duties of a head coach aren't carried out on Sunday - creating a positive culture around the team, bringing in good coaching talent and making sure the coaching staff is operating well as a unit, working with the front office to find and develop player talent in the draft and free agent markets, coaching up players and figuring out where and how they can succeed on the football field, etc.  A lot of this stuff is invisible to outside observers unless you follow a team really closely like the Patriots but there are at least some strong indications that Rex doesn't excel in these areas and, for me, that completely negates whatever he brings as a defensive Xs and Os guy.  At lot of the most successful coaches in the league right now are not known for their Xs and Os at all - Tom Coughlin, John Fox, the Harbaughs, Mike Tomlin, etc.  If I was looking to hire a head coach as a GM/owner, I wouldn't be asking "Who is the hot young OC or DC whose units have had a lot of success on Sunday?", I'd be asking, "Who has the broad set of administrative, evaluative, and interpersonal skills to do all the things a HC needs to do from Monday through Saturday?"
 

luckiestman

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Super Nomario said:
To add on your last sentence, the two WR taken before Hill were A.J. Jenkins (bust) and Brian Quick (bust), and the two after were Jeffrey (hit) and Ryan Broyles (bust). WR's tough.
 
It is very unfair to judge receivers independent of quarterbacks. I could see Hill playing well with Cutler (or Mccown). Alshon would not be doing the numbers he is doing with Geno
 

luckiestman

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
I'm basically in the same boat.  You could definitely do worse than Rex but I think he's somewhat overrated as a coach around here, mainly because he has coached some really good games against the Pats over the years and because people tend to overrate the Xs and Os side of being a head coach in general.  The most important duties of a head coach aren't carried out on Sunday - creating a positive culture around the team, bringing in good coaching talent and making sure the coaching staff is operating well as a unit, working with the front office to find and develop player talent in the draft and free agent markets, coaching up players and figuring out where and how they can succeed on the football field, etc.  A lot of this stuff is invisible to outside observers unless you follow a team really closely like the Patriots but there are at least some strong indications that Rex doesn't excel in these areas and, for me, that completely negates whatever he brings as a defensive Xs and Os guy.  At lot of the most successful coaches in the league right now are not known for their Xs and Os at all - Tom Coughlin, John Fox, the Harbaughs, Mike Tomlin, etc.  If I was looking to hire a head coach as a GM/owner, I wouldn't be asking "Who is the hot young OC or DC whose units have had a lot of success on Sunday?", I'd be asking, "Who has the broad set of administrative, evaluative, and interpersonal skills to do all the things a HC needs to do from Monday through Saturday?"
 
 
I agree with you and this reasoning is why I admire Joe Gibbs so much. He translated his skill set across multiple domains.
 

Super Nomario

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Shelterdog said:
 
Maybe, but just eyeballing it Carolina and the Cardinals have fairly low VARs this year (13 and 5). What's weird about the Jets is they play tough against the Saints and Pats but then they got demolished by the Titans and Bills.
It really comes down to the turnovers. They beat Buffalo in their first meeting. In the second, it was still a 10-point game, then Geno had two turnovers in four plays, leading two 10 Buffalo points (two drives where the Bills' O gained a total of 7 yards). There were two more turnovers, including a pick-six late. Despite giving up 37 points, the defense played OK, allowing just 14 first downs and 313 total yards. Same story against Tennessee - it was just 10-3 in the 2nd (with the Titans' TD coming off a Geno INT), then Geno threw a pick that led to a TD. At 17-6, he threw another pick that led to a TD. He also fumbled late, which was recovered for a TEN TD. The Titans' TD drives were 18, 26, 46, 0 (defensive), and 77 yards.
 
The 77-yard drive was one play. In the Buffalo game above, they allowed a two-play, 80-something-yard drive. I think that's the other reason for high variance - the Jets play aggressively with their front seven and often leave their corners on an island. So they give up big plays - they had the 8th-lowest completion % against, but the 10th-highest Y/C against. Big plays are high-variance, so it's not surprising we see that at the team level. Their offense is also high-variance; in addition to the turnovers, they finished dead last in completion %, but 6th in Y/C. Every Jets game is like a roulette wheel of turnovers, 50-yard passes, and 3-and-outs.
 

Reverend

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Super Nomario said:
It really comes down to the turnovers. They beat Buffalo in their first meeting. In the second, it was still a 10-point game, then Geno had two turnovers in four plays, leading two 10 Buffalo points (two drives where the Bills' O gained a total of 7 yards). There were two more turnovers, including a pick-six late. Despite giving up 37 points, the defense played OK, allowing just 14 first downs and 313 total yards. Same story against Tennessee - it was just 10-3 in the 2nd (with the Titans' TD coming off a Geno INT), then Geno threw a pick that led to a TD. At 17-6, he threw another pick that led to a TD. He also fumbled late, which was recovered for a TEN TD. The Titans' TD drives were 18, 26, 46, 0 (defensive), and 77 yards.
 
The 77-yard drive was one play. In the Buffalo game above, they allowed a two-play, 80-something-yard drive. I think that's the other reason for high variance - the Jets play aggressively with their front seven and often leave their corners on an island. So they give up big plays - they had the 8th-lowest completion % against, but the 10th-highest Y/C against. Big plays are high-variance, so it's not surprising we see that at the team level. Their offense is also high-variance; in addition to the turnovers, they finished dead last in completion %, but 6th in Y/C. Every Jets game is like a roulette wheel of turnovers, 50-yard passes, and 3-and-outs.
 
This all scans on its own as a coherent narrative, but it doesn't explain four consecutive years of that kind of VAR. As per above, it could be mere chance. but the probability of that is really, really low--and almost certainly not something to bet on.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Reverend said:
 
This all scans on its own as a coherent narrative, but it doesn't explain four consecutive years of that kind of VAR. As per above, it could be mere chance. but the probability of that is really, really low--and almost certainly not something to bet on.
 
Isn't the simplest explanation that Rex coaches mostly on emotion and it's impossible to sustain performance by trying to get your guys all jacked up each and every week? Thus the SB-like performances against the Pats followed by wretched ones against other teams because Rex coaches by emotion and there's a letdown.
 

soxfan121

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
Isn't the simplest explanation that Rex coaches mostly on emotion and it's impossible to sustain performance by trying to get your guys all jacked up each and every week? Thus the SB-like performances against the Pats followed by wretched ones against other teams because Rex coaches by emotion and there's a letdown.
 
I dunno - seems like the "jacked & pumped" approach works for Pete Carroll. Of course, the major difference between Pete and Rex is that Pete has John Schneider shopping for his groceries. Which circles back to the argument about to what extent Rex was responsible for some of the grocery shopping, and in particular, the selection of Sanchez. I lean toward Shelterdog's analysis here; namely, if Rex wanted to remove the tattoo in week 3 of 2011 and did what he did after that because it was 'best for the team' it's a whole different ball of wax than if he decided to remove the tattoo in week 15 of 2012. 
 
In any case, Rex seems to do his best coaching against his biggest rivals. He's been consistently good against the division rivals in the AFC East. He almost certainly has a better plan and results against Tom Brady and the Patriots than just about anyone else in the NFL. I'd feel a lot better about the two Pats-Jets games next season without REx Ryan on the Jets sideline. Literally, other than Belichick taking that job, there's no one who could be worse for the Patriots as the head coach of Jets, except maybe the ghost of Vince Lombardi. 
 
OTOH, it's GENO. And a roster largely bereft of talent, especially at offensive skill positions. And possibly a busted top 10 pick (Milliner). So, they're a good bet to finish 8-8 or worse again next year. But they'll yet again be a thorn in the Patriots side with each matchup, making those games harder than they would be if (for example) they hired Jim Schwartz or Gary Kubiak to replace Rex.
 

Shelterdog

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
Isn't the simplest explanation that Rex coaches mostly on emotion and it's impossible to sustain performance by trying to get your guys all jacked up each and every week? Thus the SB-like performances against the Pats followed by wretched ones against other teams because Rex coaches by emotion and there's a letdown.
 
It's certainly plausible.  There's a lot of evidence that Rex tells the team that week X is more important than week Y (e.g., the whole don't do anything for your wife Patriots week wait until next week thing from ealrier this season).  It's really surprising to me that pro athletic performance would vary so much week to week because of game day emotion.
 
Now it could be that Rex only gets the extra effort at practice during big weeks so Cromartie is locked in on the game plan during Patriots week but makes a mistake here or there from lack of preparation during less important work.
 
Rex's game planning also seems to vary in quality from week to week.  I wouldn't be shocked to learn that Rex busts his ass when the Pats are playing the Jets or his brother but that he fucks around, has a dinner with his family, or whatever when the Titans are up next.
 

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soxfan121 said:
 
I dunno - seems like the "jacked & pumped" approach works for Pete Carroll. Of course, the major difference between Pete and Rex is that Pete has John Schneider shopping for his groceries. Which circles back to the argument about to what extent Rex was responsible for some of the grocery shopping, and in particular, the selection of Sanchez. I lean toward Shelterdog's analysis here; namely, if Rex wanted to remove the tattoo in week 3 of 2011 and did what he did after that because it was 'best for the team' it's a whole different ball of wax than if he decided to remove the tattoo in week 15 of 2012. 
 
In any case, Rex seems to do his best coaching against his biggest rivals. He's been consistently good against the division rivals in the AFC East. He almost certainly has a better plan and results against Tom Brady and the Patriots than just about anyone else in the NFL. I'd feel a lot better about the two Pats-Jets games next season without REx Ryan on the Jets sideline. Literally, other than Belichick taking that job, there's no one who could be worse for the Patriots as the head coach of Jets, except maybe the ghost of Vince Lombardi. 
 
OTOH, it's GENO. And a roster largely bereft of talent, especially at offensive skill positions. And possibly a busted top 10 pick (Milliner). So, they're a good bet to finish 8-8 or worse again next year. But they'll yet again be a thorn in the Patriots side with each matchup, making those games harder than they would be if (for example) they hired Jim Schwartz or Gary Kubiak to replace Rex.
 
In a way though, isn't this good for the Pats? Even if they beat the Pats once a year or two times in three years, they're not really a contender for the AFC East because they shit the bed against other teams. So even at the expense of losing a game to them here or there (like this year), they're not a threat to a division title, which is a good thing for the Pats.
 
Edit: responding to your middle paragraph
 

Jimy Hendrix

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People are overstating the case that Rex is a mastermind against the Patriots. He often plays them very tough, but he's been blown out plenty of times as well.
 
You'd have to assume he runs his emotions and preparation high for every Pats/Jets game, but this incredible variance for the Jets is present there as well. Some of the most lopsided games of football I've seen in my life have been Pats/Jets games in the Ryan era (see 45 - 3 in 2010 or Fumble, Butt).
 
Unless you think he decides emotionally to take some Pats games off, which doesn't seem like his style, I think the inconsistency can't be due to emotions. It seems far more likely to be his wretched, turnover prone offenses.
 

Ed Hillel

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There's nothing wrong with a coach and ownership privately celebrating an 8-8 season with this squad, but the team joining in is pretty funny. I am hoping and praying that Jay Cutler somehow finds his way onto the squad, though I think they're more likely to stick with Geno, which is certainly ok as well.
 

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
Curran's getting feisty.
 
Wow, that's some mighty fine trolling right there.
 
 
Jimy Hendrix said:
People are overstating the case that Rex is a mastermind against the Patriots. He often plays them very tough, but he's been blown out plenty of times as well.
 
Yeah, but the Patriots have been way better, so they're supposed to blow them out. That's the whole point: how the Jets have managed to give the Patriots so much trouble.
 

Stitch01

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soxfan121 said:
 
I dunno - seems like the "jacked & pumped" approach works for Pete Carroll. Of course, the major difference between Pete and Rex is that Pete has John Schneider shopping for his groceries. Which circles back to the argument about to what extent Rex was responsible for some of the grocery shopping, and in particular, the selection of Sanchez. I lean toward Shelterdog's analysis here; namely, if Rex wanted to remove the tattoo in week 3 of 2011 and did what he did after that because it was 'best for the team' it's a whole different ball of wax than if he decided to remove the tattoo in week 15 of 2012. 
 
In any case, Rex seems to do his best coaching against his biggest rivals. He's been consistently good against the division rivals in the AFC East. He almost certainly has a better plan and results against Tom Brady and the Patriots than just about anyone else in the NFL. I'd feel a lot better about the two Pats-Jets games next season without REx Ryan on the Jets sideline. Literally, other than Belichick taking that job, there's no one who could be worse for the Patriots as the head coach of Jets, except maybe the ghost of Vince Lombardi. 
 
OTOH, it's GENO. And a roster largely bereft of talent, especially at offensive skill positions. And possibly a busted top 10 pick (Milliner). So, they're a good bet to finish 8-8 or worse again next year. But they'll yet again be a thorn in the Patriots side with each matchup, making those games harder than they would be if (for example) they hired Jim Schwartz or Gary Kubiak to replace Rex.
 
Yeah....gonna disagree on that and I kind of like Rex.
 

Shelterdog

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Reverend said:
 
Wow, that's some mighty fine trolling right there.
 
 
 
Yeah, but the Patriots have been way better, so they're supposed to blow them out. That's the whole point: how the Jets have managed to give the Patriots so much trouble.
 
In the Rex era the Pats are 64-22 against the rest of the league (74%) and 7-4 against the Jets (64%).  I was slightly surprised to see the numbers--I though Rex had played the Pats a little tougher--but it's not a bad record for a 500 team to have against the Pats.
 

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Shelterdog said:
In the Rex era the Pats are 64-22 against the rest of the league (74%) and 7-4 against the Jets (64%).  I was slightly surprised to see the numbers--I though Rex had played the Pats a little tougher--but it's not a bad record for a 500 team to have against the Pats.
Part of that is that the Pats and Jets are in the same division and play each other twice a year. Sure, Buffalo has been completely owned by the Pats in the Brady era, but I would guess that dominant teams over time have faired a little worse against division opponents.
 

Tony C

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Yeah....gonna disagree on that and I kind of like Rex.
 
Rex as 2nd to Lombardi against the Pats is, all due respect to Soxfan, one of the crazier things I've ever heard. He's beat the Pats a bit more than 1/3 of the time, he's .500-ish overall, he's a handicap on the offensive side of the ball and overall coaches like a college coach on emotion (whoever said he'd make a great college coach was spot on).  I fully agree the Jets could do worse -- Rex has real strengths -- but they're fools for not wanting to do better.  Perhaps the 1 year deal indicates that it's just a matter of them not thinking their guy is out there to hire, and that Rex is a fine interim guy who will keep them competitive and interesting.
 

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Alright, since keeping Rex has met with much criticism, who would the critics bring in? One of the sociopaths fired today in Detroit and Tampa? A well past his prime Shanahan? Another one of those college guys who bring a failure rate that seems close to 90%? Punting on this by saying that's Idzik's job seems like weak sauce given the level of criticism.

Here's the context. The cupboard is almost entirely bare on offense. Geno remains a huge ? , so how much one of those QB gurus would get you is far from clear to me. Meanwhile, you can easily count on one hand HCs capable of coaxing 8 wins out of this team.

It seems to me BB was prophetic in that "A Football Life" sequence when Bon Jovi asked what he thought of the Rex Ryan hire, and Bill replied, "they will play hard for him". The Jets certainly have, which distinguishes Rex from most of the half dozen asshats who have been fired so far. That speaks to his leadership abilities, which combined with his undeniable talent on defense count for something.

If reports are true, they will be making a two-year financial commitment to Rex, which buys time for further evaluation if the GM can ever improve the offense. Now who would you prefer to invest 5 years and $30 million instead in these circumstances?
 

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Apologies if this was talked about before, but I found this podcast really interesting--it's an interview with Nick Dawidoff, the author of Collision Low Crossers, which relates the year he spent observing the NYJ up close (I believe it was 2011). As a bonus, they also talked briefly to Jim Leonhard, whom Dawidoff grew close to while writing the book.
 
I really want to read the book after listening to this, but a few tidbits that were interesting:
 
1. Rex is a players coach, in the sense that he has a really good relationship with them and guys want to play for him
2. Conversely, Dawidoff implied that he struggles with being a hard-ass with his guys and with other, unspecified, things required of a head coach
3. Sanchez, while intelligent and athletic, struggled with focussing sufficiently on preparation (Dawidoff talks about Morninhweig's frustration with this, especially as compared to someone like Brees whom he had worked with before). In part, Dawidoff chalked this up to immaturity.
4. Concussions/CTE is not something the players really wanted to talk about (unsurprisingly), something Leonhard addressed during his brief interview, saying that the general feeling is that the minute you let yourself think about injuries you're done on the field because the line is that thin between performing at a top level and being on the street.
 
I still hate the Jets, but I found it refreshing after listening to the myriad simplistic analyses about Rex and company.
 
 
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Anytime I'm about to give Rex more credit than he deserves, I look at these numbers since he took over in 2009:
 
Point differential:
  • 2009: 112
  • 2010: 63
  • 2011: 14
  • 2012: -94
  • 2013: -97 (welp -- that's a whopping -209 point reverse in just 5 years)
Offensive Ranking (Pts / Yards):
  • 2009: 17 / 20
  • 2010: 13 / 11
  • 2011: 25 / 20
  • 2012: 30 / 20
  • 2013: 29 / 19 (fairly steady regression)
Defensive Ranking (Pts / Yards):
  • 2009: 1 / 1
  • 2010: 6 / 3
  • 2011: 20 / 5
  • 2012: 20 / 8
  • 2013: 19 / 11 (well, whaddaya know -- defense has regressed more than offense under Rex)
Total DVOA:
  • 2009: 9
  • 2010: 6
  • 2011: 10
  • 2012: 27
  • 2013: 24 (even with a modest uptick, that's a 15 step drop from year 1)
Notice a trend? Under Ryan's watch, this team has undoubtedly regressed each and every year, including defense. 
 
Blame Tannenbaum you say? Surely he has had a huge impact on the team's performance, but folks often forget that he became a GM in 2006, when Mangini first took over.
 
In fact, Tanny & Mangini took over a horrendous 4-12 team from Herman Edwards (-115 point differential!) and turned it into a 10-6 playoff team. 
 
Let's also look at the impact players Jets drafted in the 2006 draft:
  • Rd 1: D'Brickashaw Ferguson
  • Rd 1: Nick Mangold
  • Rd 3: Eric Smith
  • Rd 4: Brad Smith
  • Rd 4: Leon Washington
That's quite a haul. 2007?
  • Rd 1: Darrelle Revis
  • Rd 2: David Harris
  • UDFA: Mike DeVito
* Disclaimer: 2008 draft was an utter disaster, with TE Dustin Keller being only starter
 
Ryan often gets credit for drafting Coples, Wilkerson, etc. and he should. But Tanny & Mangini really laid out a foundation for an elite defense much earlier. 
 
As others had pointed out, Ryan definitely has some positives as a HC, but if you're looking for a guy who's making his team better as his tenure grows, he ain't it. In fact, the numbers say he's been doing the exact opposite. 
 
That's why I am ecstatic that he's back, and why I'm giving Woody a standing-o for (soon) handing out at a minimum 2-year extension that runs into 2016-2017 season for RR.
 

luckiestman

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Signing Farve and firing Mangini was a big mistake. I get that people on this board consider Mangini a rat, and he has certain personality flaws, but he was a good coach.
 
Cleveland should not have fired him either. They should not have let him run the show with kokinis in year one, but he should have stayed there. 
 
Why am I bringing this up? Because my take is always that the Jets have gotten worse every year since Rex got here. It is so weird for me as someone who roots for the laundry to see how this guy gets weirdly lucky to keep his job. Y1 totally chokes down the stretch, Colts throw a game, luck into playing an awful Bengals team and get to AFC championship game (SD choked too).
 
Y2 play poorly down the stretch, run into playoff manning and just have an epic game against the Pats. Come out totally flat against the Steelers. They should have won that game.
 
Y3 just a disaster, but cant fire a guy that got to AFC championship game 2 years in a row,
 
Y4 Tebow lol, fire the OC  year also known as BLAME SANCHEZ. Poor kid got murdered in the pocket
 
Y5 An awful 8-8. Two gift games. Absolute gifts from the zebras (Tampa, NE) this team is 6-10, but hey! Rex got to 8-8 with Geno Smith. Let's extend him
 
This is a fucking nightmare for JETS fans. Must be how some philly fans felt when buddy kept doing enough to keep his job but had no shot at getting past gibbs/parcells/walsh even with a loaded team. 
 
Buddy had his superbowl against Gibbs (bodybag game) then got smashed again in the playoffs same year. 
 
Im sure none of you care but at least you can enjoy a Jet's fans misery.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Well I agree with your assessment (obviously by my post right above yours), but it looks like an unpopular sentiment among other Jets fans.
 
Let's take a TGG thread called "Expectations for 2014" and take these few first samples:
 
Assuming the holes that need to be filled (WR, TE, OL, OLB, S, CB (Cro gotta go) ) are filled, what is the realistic expectation for this team next year? 10-6? 11-5? Playoffs? Super Bowl or bust? 
 
If we spend the money our potential is unlimited. If we play it safe in free agency I do not think we can win the SB next year. 
 
i expected 4-12 this year, next year i expect 11-5. That schedule aint shit. We gotta sweep MIA and BUF for that to happen though. I think we could take 3/4 against the NFC north teams, and at least 2/4 against the AFC West.
 
(Friendly reminder: NFC North has the Packers, Bears, Lions, and the Vikings.)
 
I think its time we push the Patriots for the division.
 
If we make the corrections to the offense then I'd say we should be on par with the same level as the Colts of 2013 
 
I say 11-5 and the 5 seed anything less then a playoff birth and Rex is done. 10-6. Would be bummed with anything less. QB & WR ought to both be better; defense could still improve...10-6.
 
With the addition of a new safety and corner, at least a wide receiver and possibly a TE? 10-6, and far less blowouts. If the o-line gets stronger too? The sky is the limit.
 
Winning the 3 out of last 4 games* have really buoyed fans' expectations yet once again, and although can't blame the optimism (all fans suffer the same malady after all), it seems to be based on the following:
  • Geno making a 2nd year leap and become a viable starter
  • Idzik making the right decisions on FA
  • Picking one of Watkins/Evans/Lee (all WR)
A lot of ifs -- based on the past history, would bet on just 1 of the above: spending a 1st rounder on a "shiny hood ornament" in a WR. 
 
* Last 4 opponents: Raiders, Panthers (L), Browns, and Dolphins
 
 

soxfan121

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SeoulSoxFan said:
Anytime I'm about to give Rex more credit than he deserves, I look at these numbers since he took over in 2009:
 
First, that's a seriously great post. So great it nearly convinced me. But upon further review, it's missing probably the most important factor when evaluating personnel moves and on-field results - the cap. 
 
Certainly, Mangini's tenure set the stage for the Jets early success under Ryan - the draft record is mighty impressive. Of course, it didn't actually translate to wins under Mangini but did, immediately, with Ryan. And the success of those teams (and specifically, those defenses) under Ryan was due in large part to the acquisitions of guys like Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard and Kris Jenkins (among others). Players that Ryan undoubtedly had a hand in targeting and procuring, based on his relationships with them in Baltimore and/or reputation in the league. 
 
Which returns me to Tannenbaum, cap expert. Tannenbaum was not a personnel guy, he was a cap guy. And yet under his tenure, the Jets cap was consistently stretched and encumbered by stupid deals. The David Harris extension - to avoid the well-beaten horse of the Sanchez contract - is especially illuminating, given it arrived before Harris' old deal was due to expire and because it overpaid a good, but not great player. Culpability for the bungled Revis situation also belongs to either Tannenbaum or Woody - or both - with little to no responsibility assigned to Ryan. Take away any team's best player and see what happens to the team stats. The Jets defense "died" statistically when Revis was lost...so thanks for posting those numbers that definitively prove it.
 
But really, any discussion of the Jets cap (and really, any discussion of the Jets) concerns Sanchez. His ridiculous extension crippled the team these past two seasons. both because of his performance and non-performance and because it prevented the Jets from filling in the roster with capable contributors. For all the questions about what role Ryan had in the "Sanchez is our guy" saga, it was Tannenbaum's cap mismanagement that eroded the team's statistical performances these past two seasons. We Patriot fans have had considerable fun at the Jets expense regarding their paper thin roster but doesn't that paper thin roster also undermine the team's performance? It certainly accounts for some of the slide SSF is documenting above. 
 
And they aren't really done digging out of the wreckage that was the Mike Tannenbaum Era. They'll have a dead money charge for Sanchez in 2014 when he's released; they'll have dead money in both 14 & 15 if they choose to designate him a June 1 cut. I love this site because it has all the data I need to make this argument - just look at the dead money column and the staggering amount of players who, even if cut, didn't help the Jets create cap space. They had $23M in dead money on the 2013 cap and $12.8M tied up in Sanchez, for a staggering total of $36M+ in useless 2013 cap spending. By contrast, the Raiders suffered through 2013 with an "unprecedented" $49M in dead money to wrap up the end of the Al Davis Era and they were treated like a SuperFund site being cleaned up by NFL media and fans - it's bad, but it'll get better. Because the Raiders are looking at $69M in cap space for 2014 (projected 2014 cap is $126.3M). The Jets can get to ~$30M in cap space by whacking Sanchez, Holmes, Cromartie and others. Of course, that means the WR depth chart goes from "awful" to "nonexistent" and they cut their "best" CB. 
 
I think that Ryan deserves some criticism on the selection of groceries - how much has always been the question. But often left out of this analysis is that while other teams had a "full" budget, the Jets have been trying to shop with a budget that starts at ~$20M less than everyone else. Because of Tannenbaum's penchant for structuring contracts with bonuses that ballooned into onerous cap hits, the Jets have had less talent available for the coach to use than they would have if Tannenbaum was actually a "cap expert". Add in the Sanchez debacle and the Revis contract/injury/divorce...and you've got a head coach who overcame lots of obstacles despite a sliding statistical performance. 
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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Of course, it didn't actually translate to wins under Mangini but did, immediately, with Ryan
 
 
Mangini went 10-6 year 1 
 
Pennington was out year 2
 
Jets were 8-3 before Favre got hurt and collapsed down the stretch, 
 
Mangini brought in Jenkins, not Ryan
 
Mangini's wins 10, 4, 8
Rex's wins are 9,11,8,6,8
 

Euclis20

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Aug 3, 2004
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soxfan121 said:
 
I dunno - seems like the "jacked & pumped" approach works for Pete Carroll.
 
Carroll's Seahawks, though often good, have not been a model of consistency during his tenure.  Their average variance over his four years is 23rd, never better than 18th.  Better than Ryan's average of 27.8, but still.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
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Jul 15, 2005
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Euclis20 said:
 
Carroll's Seahawks, though often good, have not been a model of consistency during his tenure.  Their average variance over his four years is 23rd, never better than 18th.  Better than Ryan's average of 27.8, but still.
 
Is this stat independent of home road variance, or can that at least be split out?
 

soxfan121

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luckiestman said:
Of course, it didn't actually translate to wins under Mangini but did, immediately, with Ryan
 
 
Mangini went 10-6 year 1 
 
Pennington was out year 2
 
Jets were 8-3 before Favre got hurt and collapsed down the stretch, 
 
Mangini brought in Jenkins, not Ryan
 
Mangini's wins 10, 4, 8
Rex's wins are 9,11,8,6,8
 
Thanks for the corrections. For some reason I blanked on Mangini's first year entirely and had him at 4 & Favre collapse only. And the Jenkins thing is just lazy non-fact checking on my part. 
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Jimy Hendrix said:
People are overstating the case that Rex is a mastermind against the Patriots. He often plays them very tough, but he's been blown out plenty of times as well.
 
To your point, here is Rex Ryan vs. NE:
 
2009 - W (16-9), L (31-14)
2010 - W (28-14), L (45-3), W (28-21)*
2011 - L (30-21), L (37-16)
2012 - L (29-26), L (49-14)
2013 - L (13-10), W (30-27)
*Playoff game
 
So that's 4-7 overall.  Here are the margins:
 
In wins:  +7, +14, +7, +3
In losses:  -17, -42, -9, -21, -3, -35, -3
 
So when he wins, it's usually close.  When he loses, more than half the time it's a blowout, with two abject demolitions mixed in there.  
 

luckiestman

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33,029
soxfan121 said:
 
Thanks for the corrections. For some reason I blanked on Mangini's first year entirely and had him at 4 & Favre collapse only. And the Jenkins thing is just lazy non-fact checking on my part. 
Oh, I understand, these Jets' seasons are very forgettable. I've just been bitter since BB quit. Found out Parcells was done, my little brother was all upset, I told him, no big deal man, Belichik is good. Then he goes to Patsland after one day (many of my patsfan friends weren't even happy, which made it worse) and we got groh, worm, eric, and the current nightmare. 
 
That's it! 2014, I'm letting go of this stuff and just going to enjoy one game at a time.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Jun 27, 2006
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A Scud Away from Hell
First, that's a seriously great post. So great it nearly convinced me. 
 
Much appreciate that SF121, and a that was a great post/counter-point. However, it's going to be my mission to finally convince you this time :D
 
soxfan121 said:
But upon further review, it's missing probably the most important factor when evaluating personnel moves and on-field results - the cap. 
 
Which returns me to Tannenbaum, cap expert. Tannenbaum was not a personnel guy, he was a cap guy. And yet under his tenure, the Jets cap was consistently stretched and encumbered by stupid deals. The David Harris extension - to avoid the well-beaten horse of the Sanchez contract - is especially illuminating, given it arrived before Harris' old deal was due to expire and because it overpaid a good, but not great player. Culpability for the bungled Revis situation also belongs to either Tannenbaum or Woody - or both - with little to no responsibility assigned to Ryan. 
 
But really, any discussion of the Jets cap (and really, any discussion of the Jets) concerns Sanchez. 
 
I think that Ryan deserves some criticism on the selection of groceries - how much has always been the question. 
 
You're absolutely right -- cap should be a big factor in putting a coach's performance in perspective, especially when working with a "cap guy" GM like Tanny. In other words, Tanny's job -- for all intents and purposes -- was more about contractual obligations than talent evaluations. 
 
If we accept division of labor, I'd argue most of the cap blames go squarely to Rex and not Tanny. Rex (the grocery shopper) wanted certain players on the roster, and it was up to Tanny to make it happen. In my view, Tanny did exactly what was asked of him and used his expertise to the best of his ability.
 
And it all trails back to a player who never played a down for the Jets:
 

 
Nnamdi Asomugha was the #1 FA at the start of the 2011 off-season. And Rex envisioned (and Pats fans feared) a dream-team secondary of Cromartie (FA who resigned), Revis, and Asomugha. Logic was hard to argue - to blanket Brady and his potent set of weapons and finally dethrone RR's mortal enemies as 2012's AFCE Champs. 
 
Jets were considered to be the leading candidate to land NA, but there was only one problem. Jets lacked the cap space to accommodate the potential mega contract (Asomugha's eventual Eagles deal: 5 years, $60m, $25m guaranteed). What do to?
 
I believe that Rex pushed hard for NA, and Tanny created room by re-doing several contracts, including:
  • David Harris: 4 years, $36m with $29.5m guaranteed, saving $6.4m in cap space (notable for being the biggest contract ever given to a LB)
  • Bart Scott: saves $1m by guaranteeing $4.2m 2012 salary
Nnamdi didn't sign with the Jets, but the damage was done.
 
By the time Harris was extended a total of $118m was spent with an incredible $75m guaranteed. And by mistakenly believing that Jets were in GFIN mode*, almost half of 2012 cap space was devoted to their top 7 players:
  • Resigned Holmes: 5 years, $50m with $24m guaranteed
  • Resigned Cromartie: 4 years, $32m
  • Resigned Wayne Hunter: 4 years (and later doubles down on the mistake by guranteeing his $4.5m 2012 salary for the 5th worst starting tackle via PFF in 2011)
Cap's negative impact on roster started to show signs in 2011 as well, releasing dependable Pats killer Jerricho Cotchery (5 catches for 96 yards in the 2011 PO win) and replacing him with Derrick Mason -- a move that blew up quickly, and letting productive Brad Smith go to Buffalo**.
 
Tanny surely has made other mistakes that are more on him, but in the critical off-season of 2011, Rex' long-term desire to add Asomugha (not exactly a secret) was the delta point that forced a series of contractual moves that help create the hellish cap situation. 
 
* I think Rex' continued public guarantees also played part here
** Mason was traded to Texas mid-season; Smith did nothing in Buffalo
 

Tony C

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Two articles on ESPN ripping Ryan in a way that the local media (and Cimini on the ESPN blog) won't -- as one of them said, he's too good for copy for them to rip. The snarkier (and more fun) one is summed up by
 
It really is better to be lucky than good, Rex.
 
 
And, more substantively:

 
In the end, Woody absolved you of your many team-shaping sins. You were right there with Mike Tannenbaum in building the very roster that got the GM fired. You were right there in drafting Mark Sanchez at No. 5 before he regressed on your watch, and before you got him knocked out for the season in a game that didn't count. You were right there with the hirings of Tony Sparano and Tim Tebow, right there in neglecting the offense in a fast-breaking league that keeps embracing rules designed to marginalize the defense.
You were right there in trash-talking the Giants before the Christmas Eve showdown in 2011 that changed everything. Coughlin outcoached you that week, embarrassed you, really, on the way to ultimately beating the Patriots in a second Super Bowl (Coughlin doesn't kiss Belichick's rings, either; he steals them), and your Jets haven't been the same since.
 
 
http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/10221576/new-york-jets-rex-ryan-nfl-luckiest-man?ex_cid=espnapi_public