lexrageorge said:
It could be any of the above. Or, more ominously, it could be the following:
a.) Pedroia, Napoli, Nava, Victorino all past their prime and well into their decline.
b.) Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart going through the not totally unexpected growing pains.
c.) Ramirez scuffling due to his shoulder injury.
The last one is likely temporary. Item (b) should (hopefully) improve, but to what degree is not known. The first one seems very real, and is not easily fixed. I should add one more:
d.) Ortiz (.316 OPS) and Sandoval (.142) struggles against lefties.
I'm guessing there will be some regression back to the mean for both. 90 combined plate appearances is still a small sample.
A) a age related decline is one thing, but falling of the cliff is another
Pedroia - hitting with RISP will normalize and he should be fine.
Napoli - I am willing to attribute the early season struggles to surgery and lack of off-season work. Hopefully, he starts to make positive strides. I am optimistic, but of course, lack of work in the off-season can have long lasting affects.
Nava - I think this is hard to call age related, and the performance is no longer a SSS since we saw the same thing last year. He is basically a 25th man on the roster and should be starting twice a month. He is exposed for what he is when he is a quasi-regular.
Victorino - especially considering the D he adds would be fine, except for the fact that his body is breaking down (certainly age related). He shouldn't be counted on to be more than a PT player at this point. And it has been painful to watch the production from this outfield, when he and Hanley are injured.
Papi - I would add him to the age related decline list. It had to happen at some point. I just think it is unrealistic to expect the same numbers of the past 2 years or so.
B) Absolutely correct. I think we can expect significant improvement from at least 2 of 3 young players going forward.
C) Ramirez - after the first 2 weeks post injury he is hitting the ball hard again as shown by ball speed over the last couple of days. In all likelihood, he will be the RS best hitter this year.
D) Sandoval vs lefties. Personally, I have seen enough and combined with his numbers from last year, I don't think this is a SSS that will show significant competent improvement. IMO, it is time to abandon switch hitting.
I do feel there is hope for a good offensive team this year. Certainly, getting Castillo up so we can see much less of Nava will help. That combined with improvement from the young players and Hanley's health. Napoli is really a key to lengthening the line up, so let's hope he breaks out of it. The alternatives for him are limited at this point (Holt).