The Offense

[grimshaw]

Matthew Kory at FanGraphs Put up an article today on the Red Sox offense in which he blames BABIP for the Sox' struggles:
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/defending-the-red-sox-offensive-approach/

27th in hard hit balls and 1st in softly hit balls is what makes it even more infuriating.  I would blame BABIP more if they were making hard contact, but they aren't.
Aside from catchers, who were projected to be complementary bats at best, you can't even blame injuries either.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Yeah you can't blame it on bad luck when you aren't making good contact.  This is far more than a BABIP issue.  They're hitting like shit and the results are expected.  Hopefully after AZ releases Salty and Boston signs him the lineup issues will be fixed.

 

[CGSO]

This is interesting I thought. Mostly cause it's what I've been saying for the past few weeks. The "take a strike" approach IMO is more detrimental than helpful.

 

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus’ Matthew Trueblood posted an article that said the Red Sox were being too patient at the plate in a league where that approach doesn’t work as well as it did 10 years ago. The 2004 Red Sox could afford to take pitch after pitch after pitch and let the big boppers clear the bases, but Trueblood says that type of baseball is, systematically, a thing of the past.
 
What changed? Pitchers got better. As Trueblood writes, "the Sox are swinging at the first pitch just 18.4 percent of the time, easily the lowest rate in MLB. And they're doing so in the worst era to do so: If the 2015 season ended today, it would break the 2014 season’s record for best aggregate performance by batters who swing at the first pitch, relative to those who don’t."

 
http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/5/14/8604775/2-simple-ways-for-the-red-sox-to-get-better

 

[MikeM]

The catching black hole has been the worst luck they could have.  The other positions I pointed out are just not performing.

 
I wouldn't go as far as to lay the blame on bad luck. Outside a rather optimistic view on Vazquez's ability to hit MLB quality pitching, there was always a fairly decent chance in play that he would struggle from the offensive side. Probably not current Swihart level struggle of course (who keep in mind is still regarded as somebody with a much higher offensive ceiling) , but closer to a "black hole" then somebody you'd ideally want hitting any higher then 9th in even a bad lineup.
 
An aging Hanigan may have ended up being an adequate fill in as well, but i doubt many were realistically running to the bank to bet against a regression from his April line the longer he got exposed to full time play.
 
I do agree Salty isn't the answer....but there probably never really was one out there to begin with. 

 

[joe dokes]

They're hitting like shit and the results are expected.  Hopefully after AZ releases Salty and Boston signs him the lineup issues will be fixed.

 
Ryan Kalish is out there with no team.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

This is interesting I thought. Mostly cause it's what I've been saying for the past few weeks. The "take a strike" approach IMO is more detrimental than helpful.
 
What changed? Pitchers got better. As Trueblood writes, "the Sox are swinging at the first pitch just 18.4 percent of the time, easily the lowest rate in MLB. And they're doing so in the worst era to do so: If the 2015 season ended today, it would break the 2014 season’s record for best aggregate performance by batters who swing at the first pitch, relative to those who don’t."
 
http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/5/14/8604775/2-simple-ways-for-the-red-sox-to-get-better

 
Why would improved performance when swinging at the first pitch vs not suggest that it's better to swing at the first pitch more? This is the old canard that was discussed in Moneyball with Hatteberg. Good performance on first-pitch swings means that the hitter is swinging at good pitches to hit and not swinging at bad ones. Kevin Youkilis crushed first pitches when he swung at them because he only bothered to swing at ones which were exactly what he was looking for. That doesn't mean he should have swung at more first pitches.

 

[EricFeczko]

Yeah you can't blame it on bad luck when you aren't making good contact.  This is far more than a BABIP issue.  They're hitting like shit and the results are expected.  Hopefully after AZ releases Salty and Boston signs him the lineup issues will be fixed.

Whether "hard hit" vs. "soft hit" balls explain the results so far has no bearing on whether this will continue. Pop-up rates (the greatest indication of weak contact) are largely unreliable for the present sample size, but will drive hitting performance strongly. Going by the team stats mentioned above, the percentage of soft or hard hitting balls predicts less than 10% of hitting performance (e.g. wRC+, OPS; see plot below for an example).
 
View attachment 1069
In fact, we don't know whether the "soft hit" vs. "hard hit" statistics are even reliable yet. We should take these results with caution before deciding that we need to shake the roster up.

Furthermore, the distribution of performance is bimodal right now. Looking at the team as a whole is somewhat misleading. We have a collection of players who have been some of the worst hitters in the league (Craig, Nava, Victorino, Napoli, swihart, leon), yet have hit in roughly 25% of plate appearances. Essentially, the past performance has been the equivalent of having two pitchers in the lineup.
 
In fact, a comparison of AL to NL shows a 6 percent drop in hitting (99 wRC+ vs. 93 wRC+). Two pitchers gives you 87 wRC+, which is precisely our team wRC+ right now. In order to fix the offense, you need to deal with the above six players somehow (one of which, craig, has already been dealt with).

EDIT: If you want a crazy solution, fine. Make Brock Holt the starting RF, bring up Castillo (when healthy) as the LF. Slide ortiz to first and make Hanley the DH. All the above players are either utility players, DFAed, or optioned. Except for the catchers, we're sort of screwed there.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating shaking up the roster. I was simply pointing out two things: 1) the poor performance so far has not been due to bad luck on balls in play; and 2) P91's belief that Salty is a possible solution is pretty ridiculous.

I think the offense will come around, and it won't take acquiring a new catcher or handing a starting job to Nava.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

This is interesting I thought. Mostly cause it's what I've been saying for the past few weeks. The "take a strike" approach IMO is more detrimental than helpful.
 
 
http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/5/14/8604775/2-simple-ways-for-the-red-sox-to-get-better

 
Here's where it gets interesting, though, at least with regard to the kids: through April, out of 186 MLB qualifiers, Mookie Betts was #2 and Xander was #19 in lowest Z-Swing%--48.1% and 54.8% respectively. Apparently somebody noticed this, because they're both swinging at more strikes in recent weeks, especially Bogaerts: the May rates are 55.7% (#22) for Mookie, and 65.4% (#97) for Xander. But while Mookie has prospered (83 wRC+ in April, 121 in May), Xander has gotten worse (94, 51). So swinging at more strikes apparently is not a cure-all. 

 

[EricFeczko]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating shaking up the roster. I was simply pointing out two things: 1) the poor performance so far has not been due to bad luck on balls in play; and 2) P91's belief that Salty is a possible solution is pretty ridiculous.

I think the offense will come around, and it won't take acquiring a new catcher or handing a starting job to Nava.

Well, I think we agree on #2 here

I also think the offense will come around. However, #1 remains a better explanation than the %soft or %hard. If we go with wRC+, BABIP explains more variance (~16 percent) than %soft (~1-2 percent).

 

[EricFeczko]

 
Here's where it gets interesting, though, at least with regard to the kids: through April, out of 186 MLB qualifiers, Mookie Betts was #2 and Xander was #19 in lowest Z-Swing%--48.1% and 54.8% respectively. Apparently somebody noticed this, because they're both swinging at more strikes in recent weeks, especially Bogaerts: the May rates are 55.7% (#22) for Mookie, and 65.4% (#97) for Xander. But while Mookie has prospered (83 wRC+ in April, 121 in May), Xander has gotten worse (94, 51). So swinging at more strikes apparently is not a cure-all. 

To extend this even further, Hanley Ramirez has a 74.7% z-swing and Pedroia has a 59.1% z-swing. Both are hitting about the same right now. It is almost like there are multiple ways to contribute offensively or something.
 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

To extend this even further, Hanley Ramirez has a 74.7% z-swing and Pedroia has a 59.1% z-swing. Both are hitting about the same right now. It is almost like there are multiple ways to contribute offensively or something.
 

 
I think the moral of the story may be that how many strikes you swing at is somewhat less important than which strikes you swing at. </captainobvious>

 

[grimshaw]

In other news, the Dodgers have ten players with at least 50 PA with a wRC+ of 140 or more.
So Hanley would be 11th best on that team.

 

[Rovin Romine]

(Snip)
EDIT: If you want a crazy solution, fine. Make Brock Holt the starting RF, bring up Castillo (when healthy) as the LF. Slide ortiz to first and make Hanley the DH. All the above players are either utility players, DFAed, or optioned. Except for the catchers, we're sort of screwed there.

 
Barring injury, it looks like Napoli (1b), Ortiz (dh), RF and C are the current problems.  Leaving Brockholt! as a sub, likely saviors (in order of probable contributions) are:
 
Castillo, Nava, Victorino, JBJ, Craig, Shaw.   
 
I'm not set on the order though.  JBJ has a lower offensive hurdle to clear to be a contributor.  Castillo has a high ceiling but is unproven.  Vic the same but often injured.  Nava has a lower ceiling but seems very likely to rebound.  
 
It's likely that one of those coming around fixes the OF.  Two of those fixes the OF and displaces whichever is worse among Nap/Ortiz - either by sending Hanley there or directly filling the spot.  Or if the two low possibility guys (Craig/Shaw) start to hit, they could sub for Nap directly.  
 
I think they play Vic till he breaks down again, while waiting for Castillo.  Nava gets rotated in here and there as a kind of second sub behind Brock.  Craig/Shaw (and Brentz, I guess) have to hit their way out of AAA.  Any hot hand gets the starts at this point. 
 
Seems like the 2014 year redux in some ways.  We're just waiting for guys to turn it on. 

 

[Plympton91]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating shaking up the roster. I was simply pointing out two things: 1) the poor performance so far has not been due to bad luck on balls in play; and 2) P91's belief that Salty is a possible solution is pretty ridiculous.

I think the offense will come around, and it won't take acquiring a new catcher or handing a starting job to Nava.

 
To be clear, my belief is that Salty would be preferable to Sandy Leon as the backup catcher, and not anything more than that.  But keep beating that strawman if it suits you.
 
And unlike others here, I don't think David Ortiz and Mike Napoli have forgotten how to hit, so I expect the offense will improve over coming months as well, even if the Red Sox insist on playing a  catcher who had a 550 OPS in the minor leagues twice a week, and letting Shane Victorino or Allan Craig suck against righthanded pitching regularly instead of playing a guy who even throwing out his career year in 2013 has a 380 OBP against them over his career, including 373 in 2014.

 

[rembrat]

How much of an impact to the offense would a back up catcher have though? None?

 

[jimbobim]

How much of an impact to the offense would a back up catcher have though? None?

Pretty much nill I'd say.
 
The team could really use not blackhole production from1B  RF C when Bogaerts is not hitting a little better. I still think Bogaerts has 1 to 2 good at bats every other game. Obviously needs to get more consistent. I like Holt and Castillo over two of Vic Nap and Nava.  It also depends on how much you believe in Holt's line drives and decent eye. 

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Some team numbers through mid May:
 
vs. Lefties: (370 PA) .196/.290/.349
(Would be even worse if Hanley wasn't 11/36 with 4 HRs and 6 walks against lefties.)
vs. righties, a bit better: (1034 PA) .243/.320/.367
 
RISP: (335 PA) .205/.290/.367
 
Late & Close: (283 PA) .216/.325/.306
 
All catchers: (138 PA) .179/.278/.239
All first basemen: (153 PA) .165/.275/.256
All RF: (144 PA) .144/.245/.232
 
Basically a third of the lineup is hitting like pitchers, including two spots that are traditionally strong offensive positions.
(Actually our pitchers have combined for a much better batting average than all three of those spots so far, in only 8 PAs:
All pitchers: 8 PA .250/.250/.250)
 
In May: (511 PA) .207/.278/.334
Frankly I am surprised it's not even worse than that. In 14 games in May, we've scored 2 runs or less 10 times. (And lost 2 of the 4 games when we have scored 3 or more runs.)
 
Runs per game in May: 2, 2, 5, 1, 2, 3, 0, 1, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 1.
34 runs in 14 games, 2.42 runs per game. We're actually lucky to be 5-9 this month.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

And tonight they get Felix!

 

[Plympton91]

For those who don't follow the minor league threads, Rusnay Castillo was 3-5 with a double and two home runs last night. Victorino is making a case that he should at least play against lefties for the time being. When does Castillo come up?

 

[joe dokes]

For those who don't follow the minor league threads, Rusnay Castillo was 3-5 with a double and two home runs last night. Victorino is making a case that he should at least play against lefties for the time being. When does Castillo come up?

 
Has to be soon. He's now played 7 straight games, which suggests the injury stuff is as behind him as its going to get. He's up, JBJ down.

 

[KillerBs]

Yes, should not be long for Rusney's call up. Hopefully they stick him in RF every day and he stays healthy, leaving Victorino and Nava to pick up the odd AB here and there. 

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Not that it means anything to combine numbers, but if you take Rusneys 2014MLB/2015st/2015 AAA numbers:

.309/.358/.520 in 134PA. 6 2b, 1 3b, 6 HR, 7/10 SB, 9bb/16k, 19r, 20rbi. 34 games.

Makes that Ron Gant comparison look accurate and that he really is a late Bloomer to the damage train.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Just fro the record (and discussion) - some notable early season busts:
 
Jason Werth (.208 w/ 2 HR)
Victor Martinez (.226 w/ 1 HR)
Carlos Gonzalez (.194 w/ 3 HR)
(Mike Napoli .168 w/ 3 HR)
Carlos Beltran (.222 w/ 2 HR)
Michael Bourne (.222 w/ .287 Slugging and 2 SB)
Adam Eaton (.226 w/ .288 Slugging)
Pedro Alvarez (.218 but 6 HR)
Josh Harrison (.225 but 4 HR)
Brett Lawrie (.261 w/ 2 HR)
 
At least Napoli can field, but offensively he's the dregs of that list. Re-set his jaw back to the old days.

 

[soxhop411]

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato  1m1 minute ago
David Ortiz on his home run breaking a streak of 68 homerless ABs: "My s**** is like grapes: They come out in bunches."

 

[joe dokes]

 

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato  1m1 minute ago
David Ortiz on his home run breaking a streak of 68 homerless ABs: "My s**** is like grapes: They come out in bunches."

 

That's great. Ortiz is now like everybody's grandparents.  They're old, so they can say whatever the fuck they want.

 

[Saints Rest]

That's great. Ortiz is now like everybody's grandparents.  They're old, so they can say whatever the fuck they want.

And he wants to tell everyone about his bowel movements.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Shit has four letters...trying to solve what 5 letter swear word starts with S.
 
Maybe shart.

 

[WenZink]

For those who don't follow the minor league threads, Rusnay Castillo was 3-5 with a double and two home runs last night. Victorino is making a case that he should at least play against lefties for the time being. When does Castillo come up?

 
Alex Speier wrote in a Friday column that the consensus on Castillo is that he's not quite ready.  In spite of getting his hitting stroke, PawSox manager, Kevin Boles comments that Castillo is still "out of sync," both on the base paths and in the field.  Reading between the lines, it may be a case of trying to modify Castillo's play so that he doesn't come to the majors as an older version of Puig -- playing in an all-out, reckless style, that not only leads to injury, but also results in errors in play.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Shit has four letters...trying to solve what 5 letter swear word starts with S.
 
Maybe shart.

"S-H-A-N-K"

 

[Plympton91]

 
Alex Speier wrote in a Friday column that the consensus on Castillo is that he's not quite ready.  In spite of getting his hitting stroke, PawSox manager, Kevin Boles comments that Castillo is still "out of sync," both on the base paths and in the field.  Reading between the lines, it may be a case of trying to modify Castillo's play so that he doesn't come to the majors as an older version of Puig -- playing in an all-out, reckless style, that not only leads to injury, but also results in errors in play.

 
Seems more like rationalization of playing time Victorino, Nava, and post-hoc justification for giving Craig all those wasted at bats in April.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

 
Alex Speier wrote in a Friday column that the consensus on Castillo is that he's not quite ready.  In spite of getting his hitting stroke, PawSox manager, Kevin Boles comments that Castillo is still "out of sync," both on the base paths and in the field.  Reading between the lines, it may be a case of trying to modify Castillo's play so that he doesn't come to the majors as an older version of Puig -- playing in an all-out, reckless style, that not only leads to injury, but also results in errors in play.

It's unlikely that he's going to change from the style he's been playing his whole life in a few extra weeks.  More likely, it's just a face value comment.  He missed a chunk of ST and then more time early in the season.  He's an important part of the future, and they're not going to rush him up until they feel he's ready to stay up, play regularly, and contribute.

 

[MikeM]

It's unlikely that he's going to change from the style he's been playing his whole life in a few extra weeks.  More likely, it's just a face value comment.  He missed a chunk of ST and then more time early in the season.  He's an important part of the future, and they're not going to rush him up until they feel he's ready to stay up, play regularly, and contribute.

 
Castillo came back and raked in ST after missing that time off. That he didn't start the year in favor of Victorino's corpse was a decision made by choice imo, not necessity. He's also due to turn 28 in less the 2 months btw. So if he is that all important piece of our future (and less of the impulse buy he's arguably looking like on the surface right now), there's a good chance that future is already ticking away. 
 
The whole "he's not ready" talk on Castillo is starting to mirror some of core concern i had in regards to the "he can always end up of 1st baseman in 2016" supporting logic to not cutting our loses as best we can on Craig this past winter. If Ben is going to be out there handing out contracts that are the largest guarantees ever for players signed out of Cuba, while shooting at that age range no less, i'd feel a lot better about the signings if he was actually taking more of an all in approach towards them after-the-fact. 

 

[Plympton91]

 
Castillo came back and raked in ST after missing that time off. That he didn't start the year in favor of Victorino's corpse was a decision made by choice imo, not necessity. He's also due to turn 28 in less the 2 months btw. So if he is that all important piece of our future (and less of the impulse buy he's arguably looking like on the surface right now), there's a good chance that future is already ticking away. 
 
The whole "he's not ready" talk on Castillo is starting to mirror some of core concern i had in regards to the "he can always end up of 1st baseman in 2016" supporting logic to not cutting our loses as best we can on Craig this past winter. If Ben is going to be out there handing out contracts that are the largest guarantees ever for players signed out of Cuba, while shooting at that age range no less, i'd feel a lot better about the signings if he was actually taking more of an all in approach towards them after-the-fact. 

 
Good point, to that same effect, why in the world is Moncada not at least playing with Greenville yet; he was effective in the Cuban major leagues, he can't be learning all that much in XST and I hope he's not going to start in the NYPL on his $60 million commitment.

 

[benhogan]

 
Good point, to that same effect, why in the world is Moncada not at least playing with Greenville yet; he was effective in the Cuban major leagues, he can't be learning all that much in XST and I hope he's not going to start in the NYPL on his $60 million commitment.

They heard you.  Moncada going to Greenville tomorrow.
 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/05/17/sources-yoan-moncada-to-make-debut-with-single-a-greenville-monday-night/

 

[Cellar-Door]

Shit has four letters...trying to solve what 5 letter swear word starts with S.
 
Maybe shart.

Shits.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
Alex Speier wrote in a Friday column that the consensus on Castillo is that he's not quite ready.  In spite of getting his hitting stroke, PawSox manager, Kevin Boles comments that Castillo is still "out of sync," both on the base paths and in the field.  Reading between the lines, it may be a case of trying to modify Castillo's play so that he doesn't come to the majors as an older version of Puig -- playing in an all-out, reckless style, that not only leads to injury, but also results in errors in play.

Puig played 63 games in the minors before being called up. It was probably too long as evidenced by him being pretty much great right away. He made some errors in play, but he is so talented that he more than made up for it (Further, would another 30 minor league games have eliminated those errors? Seems unlikely).
 
This also doesn't really jibe with them putting Castillo in the majors last September, during which time he looked fine. Sure, the games didn't count, but this was the best competition and he didn't embarrass himself. If Castillo has the talent that he's supposed to, he can hold his own while figuring things out at the top level.
 
He's 27. The team is still figuring out what it is and he's surely a part of it regardless. He needs to be up.

 

[soxhop411]

@brianmacp: American League lefties who have started games against the Red Sox this season have a combined 1.53 ERA in those nine starts.

 

[soxhop411]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/600064467238522881

 

[grimshaw]

Two innings all month they have scored more than 2 runs.

 

[jimbobim]

So after watching another train wreck of an offensive day feels appropriate to take a look at what is ailing the offense now that it's clearly malfunctioning worse in comparison to the pitching. 
 
Rundown 
 
1b- Mike Napoli- still can throw the leather around defensively, but has regressed to the point of an automatic out against both RHP and LHP. Personally, I'd be done with him and move Holt to 1b, but that is taking a big leap of faith on Holt who is cooled considerably and potentially admitting the last year of that deal is bust which is unlikely.  
 
2b- Pedroia has been one of the better performers, but also has struggled immensely with RISP. If him and Ortiz don't start doing that this team will likely hover exactly where they are today. If there was an Adrian Gonzalez or Rizzo filling 1b that may not be the case. 
 
3b- I've generally liked Panda and expected a much worse hitter against lefties. The problem is against lefties Ortiz Panda and Napoli have all struggled. That's the 3,5,6 spots in the lineup batting below 200 against LHP. 
 
SS- Bogaerts has flashes of good at bats usually later in games, but the consistency is still lacking. 
 
LF- Hanley has really been the foundation piece for the lineup and he has also struggled mightily with RISP. The shoulder doesn't objectively look constraining , but he has said he's not 100 percent and looking for the power in Fenway will be instructive. 
 
CF- Mookie - A case study in the glimpses of success , but lack of consistency from a young player. His approach and at bats are still good, but one wonders whether batting leadoff  in a lineup full of underperformers is starting to wear. 
 
RF- Gaping black hole with Vic showing some heartbeat against LHP in SEA this week. JBJ has gone against some really tough RHP , but I'd be strongly in favor of Castillo in about a week. 
 
Bottom line- 
The Red Sox have a season long RISP problem as well as a problem with starting rallies with less then 2 outs. Pedroia and Ortiz getting going is necessary, but decisions on 1b RF and to a lesser extent CF ( need Mookie to get going if he's going to remain hitting leadoff which is where I do think he should be) need to greatly improve. 

 

[soxhop411]

@ScottLauber: Farrell: I dont know if were looking at a complete lineup shakeup. We need guys just to perform as theyve done for years - nothing more

@ScottLauber: Farrell: These are our guys. We believe in them. We trust them. But weve got to get some things going. #RedSox

 

[WenZink]

Let's check back in 17 games, 14 of which are against the Twins and Rangers, who have low-rated pitching staffs this year. 
 
Warm weather, 10 game home stand, crappy opposing pitchers.  If that doesn't cure the hitting, then it's going to be a long season.

 

[mauidano]

Let's check back in 17 games, 14 of which are against the Twins and Rangers, who have low-rated pitching staffs this year. 
 
Warm weather, 10 game home stand, crappy opposing pitchers.  If that doesn't cure the hitting, then it's going to be a long season.

Or a very short season for a few of those "hitters".

 

[Bigpupp]

 
Good point, to that same effect, why in the world is Moncada not at least playing with Greenville yet; he was effective in the Cuban major leagues, he can't be learning all that much in XST and I hope he's not going to start in the NYPL on his $60 million commitment.

I know this is your shtick but he has been down with a minor shoulder surgery from sliding into second base. That and, ya know, he's learning a completely new culture and way to play the game.

 

[BoredViewer]

The current .229 team batting average would be the lowest in the history of the franchise.
 
1968 was .236.

 

[GaryPeters71]

The current .229 team batting average would be the lowest in the history of the franchise.
 
1968 was .236.

And 1968 was the year they raised the pitcher's mound for a year!

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Some thoughts on that .229 average:
 
1) It's not about striking out. Sox hitters have the 4th lowest K rate in the majors.
 
2) It is about BABIP (dead last at .255)....but unfortunately that doesn't mean it's all about bad luck, because.....
 
3) We are also 24th in LD%, first (i.e. worst) in IFFB%, and first in Soft% and near-last in Medium and Hard % according to FG (I assume these categories are based on HitFX speed-off-the-bat data?).
 
4) Veteran players are mostly to blame for that batted ball stuff. We have five regulars in the top quartile for Soft%, and only one is a young player: Xander, Hanley, Pedroia, Napoli, Sandoval. Worse, we only have two regulars in the top 50 percent for Hard%: Ortiz (#50 of 177) and Hanley (#58). Next Sox hitter on that list is Mookie at #94.
 
So the bad news is that the collective slump is real. They are hitting the ball weakly as a group. The other bad news is that because so much of the lineup is made up of veterans whose best hitting years may be behind them, even when they emerge from the slump they may not get as hot as past performance might lead us to hope. As Bob Dylan said, "you can always come back, but you can't come back all the way." This is obviously true of Ortiz, Vic and Napoli, and probably more true than we'd like it to be of Pedroia, Nava and even Hanley. That is why so much is riding on Xander and Mookie, and when he arrives, Castillo.

 

[grimshaw]

Some thoughts on that .229 average:
 
1) It's not about striking out. Sox hitters have the 4th lowest K rate in the majors.
 
2) It is about BABIP (dead last at .255)....but unfortunately that doesn't mean it's all about bad luck, because.....
 
3) We are also 24th in LD%, first (i.e. worst) in IFFB%, and first in Soft% and near-last in Medium and Hard % according to FG (I assume these categories are based on HitFX speed-off-the-bat data?).
 
4) Veteran players are mostly to blame for that batted ball stuff. We have five regulars in the top quartile for Soft%, and only one is a young player: Xander, Hanley, Pedroia, Napoli, Sandoval. Worse, we only have two regulars in the top 50 percent for Hard%: Ortiz (#50 of 177) and Hanley (#58). Next Sox hitter on that list is Mookie at #94.
 
So the bad news is that the collective slump is real. They are hitting the ball weakly as a group. The other bad news is that because so much of the lineup is made up of veterans whose best hitting years may be behind them, even when they emerge from the slump they may not get as hot as past performance might lead us to hope. As Bob Dylan said, "you can always come back, but you can't come back all the way." This is obviously true of Ortiz, Vic and Napoli, and probably more true than we'd like it to be of Pedroia, Nava and even Hanley. That is why so much is riding on Xander and Mookie, and when he arrives, Castillo.

And collective slumps are particularly troubling, because the data is a much larger sample size.  No one is obliterating the competition and having an outlier type year on the positive side.  No one is due for a large regression.  Hanley hasn't looked the same since coming back, Xander hasn't come to life, and Mookie has tailed off after a hot streak.  As noted above stat wise, the lack of pulverizing lefties is even more inexplicable.
 
Their top hitter, Hanley, and his wRC+ of 120 leads the Sox and is 65th in the league.  That has been undone because of several base-running gaffs and miserable fielding which brings his WAR to -.5.  Now - the unreliable UZR data used brings that down a lot, but he is still 4th worst in the majors in defensive runs saved according to the fielding bible with -7.  To put that in perspective, Manny's worst season in the OF he was worth -15 runs saved - and that was in 1220 innings.  Hanley is at 260 innings.  We've been talking about 1B and RF, but Hanley is killing the team just as much, but that's from Hanley Ramirez - the baseball player. 
 
It's not like the weather has been awful either.  It was cool in early April, but for the most part games have been above 50.
 
There are too many proven track records for me to think they'll be a poor offensive team for the season.
 
I'm sure Rockies fans are also wondering wtf is going on with their run scoring.  Dickerson, Tulo, Morneau/Rosario, Arenado, and Carlos Gonzalez should be murdering teams as well.

 

[grimshaw]

Yeah, the Sox have been a bit lucky...their run differential is worst in the AL; and fourth worst in all of baseball.
 
Good news is that they aren't that far out of it, but jeez, it's hard to feel real good about much at this point.

So basically, our shitty pitching staff is carrying our shittier offense.