The Offense
- Thread starter grimshaw
- Start date
Since many people want to dump Farrell to salve their anger, I'm wondering how we'd go about finding how often a team whose manager was replaced during the season goes on to perform remarkably better.
Here's one website that marginally addresses the issue:
*The Reds fired Dave Miley on June 21, 2005, replacing him with Jerry Narron
*The Mariners fired John McLaren on June 19, 2008 and Jim Riggleman finished out the season
*The Rockies fired Clint Hurdle on May 29, 2009 and Jim Tracy took over
*The Diamondbacks fired Bob Melvin on June 8, 2009, replacing him with A.J. Hinch
*The Royals fired Trey Hillman on May 13, 2010, replacing him with Ned Yost
*The Orioles fired Dave Trembley on June 4, 2010 and used interim manager Juan Samuel followed by Buck Showalter
*The Marlins fired Fredi Gonzalez on June 23, 2010, replacing him with Edwin Rodriguez
*The Diamondbacks fired Hinch on July 1, 2010, replacing him with Kirk Gibson
*The Athletics fired Bob Geren on June 9, 2011, replacing him with Melvin
I don't have time now to see what the records were those seasons pre-firing/post-firing. Maybe tomorrow.
Here's one website that marginally addresses the issue:
*The Reds fired Dave Miley on June 21, 2005, replacing him with Jerry Narron
*The Mariners fired John McLaren on June 19, 2008 and Jim Riggleman finished out the season
*The Rockies fired Clint Hurdle on May 29, 2009 and Jim Tracy took over
*The Diamondbacks fired Bob Melvin on June 8, 2009, replacing him with A.J. Hinch
*The Royals fired Trey Hillman on May 13, 2010, replacing him with Ned Yost
*The Orioles fired Dave Trembley on June 4, 2010 and used interim manager Juan Samuel followed by Buck Showalter
*The Marlins fired Fredi Gonzalez on June 23, 2010, replacing him with Edwin Rodriguez
*The Diamondbacks fired Hinch on July 1, 2010, replacing him with Kirk Gibson
*The Athletics fired Bob Geren on June 9, 2011, replacing him with Melvin
I don't have time now to see what the records were those seasons pre-firing/post-firing. Maybe tomorrow.
If you are going to have already axed the pitching coach for not getting adequate production out of a group that was (realistically) rather suspect to begin with, i don't know how Chili ends up getting a pass here.
His head is certainly next on the chopping block, imo.
His head is certainly next on the chopping block, imo.
I have been mulling over a post to this effect for days. Though the offense is not Chili's fault, it is his responsibility. And while the bats have underperformed as a unit, I struggle to identify even one who player has overperformed as a hitter. I don't buy that he doesn't have ample time to put out all of the fires as he has an assistant in Rodriguez. Somehow, Pedroia finds the time despite his other duties to make breakthroughs with guys like Napoli and Hanley. If the first two months of the season are about evaluating, then Davis should be relieved of his duties and replaced on June 1st. The question becomes the most likely successor, whether an internal candidate like Gedman or Hyers, or another one of Farrell's cronies from his Cleveland days.MikeM said:
Sox are now 22-28. If you assume the AL East remains weak and no one else puts it together, what will it take, 87 wins to take the division? That would be the fewest wins by a division winner since 2009. But OK.
To get to 87 wins they need to go 65-47 for the rest of the year, a 93-win pace. Do we think they have that in them? To get to 90 wins they need a 98-win pace. It's becoming late early.
The FO needs to honestly decide if they want to make a run. If they don't, I'm fine playing for next year -- theoretically, the many players new to the league will have adjusted (either to the AL or to MLB in general) and should be a lot better. You trade everyone who's not part of the future and you maybe try to land a real pitcher who can get Ks in the offseason and make sure your team can play defense.
But you also need to decide if the current coaching staff is the group who can help these players make the needed adjustments. From here, it's not clear they can and you don't want the same thing next year.
To get to 87 wins they need to go 65-47 for the rest of the year, a 93-win pace. Do we think they have that in them? To get to 90 wins they need a 98-win pace. It's becoming late early.
The FO needs to honestly decide if they want to make a run. If they don't, I'm fine playing for next year -- theoretically, the many players new to the league will have adjusted (either to the AL or to MLB in general) and should be a lot better. You trade everyone who's not part of the future and you maybe try to land a real pitcher who can get Ks in the offseason and make sure your team can play defense.
But you also need to decide if the current coaching staff is the group who can help these players make the needed adjustments. From here, it's not clear they can and you don't want the same thing next year.
pjheff said:
The big difference between Chili and Nieves is Nieves had been around for a couple of years and while some of the pitchers were new to him this year, many weren't, so he's at least had some time to work and get things fixed. There were also allegedly communications issues between Nieves and the staff. We haven't heard any of that with Chili thus far. And Chili has only had a few months to work with this entire team. If you were only doing your job for a few months and still trying to get up to speed on it, don't you think you deserve an opportunity to do the job right? Chili also has a reputation as an excellent hitting coach, so doesn't that deserve a little more slack.
Some of the folks on this board want to change things more often than their underwear. It's getting ridiculous. When the only constant is change, you'll never get a handle on what's working and what isn't because the bars are always moving.
So many of the Sox are always swinging for the fences. They don't bunt or go to the opposite field enough, so they are continually hitting into the shift, resulting in many double plays. It has looked as tho one has sat them down and talked about hitting as a team, about making things happen on the bases. I have seen many less powerful NL line-ups looking incredibly better than the Sox do now, just taking their singles and accumulating runs. Heck, even the powerful Arod, down 3-2 last night in the first, just flicked a pitch beyond the second baseman. Of course he's a very talented hitter, but he got that hit because he didn't try to pull the ball, got on base and moved the runners along. The Red Sox seem dumb in this area. I wonder if the older batters don't listen to Davis. Has his history of success been with younger hitters? Didn't Manny try to go the opposite way when he was in a slump? Didn't Ortiz? I thought that Remy used to say that Napoli shortened up and tried to go oppo when he was down 3-2. I'm not seeing much of that approach this year, and the opposition managers are taking advantage. They see little effort to evade the shift, so they pitch accordingly.
With all the caveats about how these are decent points good luck pitching that. Punting seasons before June starts is incredibly risky business. If Papi continues in his funk they need another bat. They probably need another bat anyway if Papi does regain some semblance of decency.Toe Nash said:
Overall, the offense is more concerning to me in comparison to the pitching. Pitching actually was pretty decent and serviceable in May just not good enough for the worst offense in baseball.
Edit-
Also granted last night may have been an ugly game defensively, but I believe they's third in the AL in regular old Fielding Percentage. Hanley I know is really bad according to SSS advanced metrics.
What would you say is working right now?DanoooME said:
When people watched the Twins last week, did they see a fundamentally more talented team? A group of players that were just flat out better than the Red Sox at every position? I didn't. I saw a group of players that performed better though. A team who executed a game plan to perfection. Hitters who didn't do exactly what the pitcher wanted. Fielders who could actually catch the ball and know where to throw it.
This team is as frustrating as last year's because I can't figure out why they aren't better. Two years in a row now they're predicted to finish first and they're the worst team in the league. It doesn't seem like this team has a clue about what they're doing. Up and down the lineup, there's no approach, no sense of what their role is, no understanding of how to get a run across, it's just a constant grind, like they're trying to put a piece of furniture together but all the screws got stripped a long time ago and nobody noticed.
Apologies if these points have been brought up earlier. The offense seems to be playing a PED-era style -
- work deep into counts and get the starter out early. Starters are more aggressive now and the batters are constantly in two strike counts. Sometimes the best pitch to hit comes early in the at bat
- get into the soft underside of the bullpen. Nowadays it seems every bullpen will roll out multiple guys throwing mid 90s. There aren't as many runs in the late innings any more
- advancing base to base and waiting for someone to hit a homer. The home runs aren't happening, find some other ways to get runs across the plate, there are some athletic guys on the team, take the extra base when available
- Every veteran trying to hit the ball 450 feet each PA. A double to the opposite field is a good thing guys. A sac fly is a positive when 4 or 5 runs will win the game. Please stop trying to pull everything
Honestly, even though it wouldn't fix the short-term problem, if anybody's head should be on the block, shouldn't it be Cherington's? His track record in terms of trades and signings since the World Series win has been overwhelmingly negative. I mean really, other than Miller for EdRod, can you name a single transaction of Cherington's since October 2013 that has been a clear win? Maybe you could add WMB for Hanigan, until that was mooted by injury.
I'm not a fan of firing people just because the results aren't good, especially this early in the season--but if you have to do that, I think Chili is beside the point. The ownership needs to figure out what's wrong here. Some combination of the following is true:
1) we have been massively unlucky;
2) we're doing a bad job of judging and acquiring major-league-level talent;
3) we're doing a bad job of making that talent productive in games.
No doubt it's some of each, but I'm increasingly inclined to suspect that #2 is the biggest problem, and therefore I think if anybody goes it should probably be Ben.
I'm not a fan of firing people just because the results aren't good, especially this early in the season--but if you have to do that, I think Chili is beside the point. The ownership needs to figure out what's wrong here. Some combination of the following is true:
1) we have been massively unlucky;
2) we're doing a bad job of judging and acquiring major-league-level talent;
3) we're doing a bad job of making that talent productive in games.
No doubt it's some of each, but I'm increasingly inclined to suspect that #2 is the biggest problem, and therefore I think if anybody goes it should probably be Ben.
It seems the Sox were swinging at many 1st pitches last night, something I'll play closer attention to in today's game. I agree with comments regarding hitters swinging for the fence far too often...With that in mind and Farrell seemingly okay with it I have to wonder what Ben's thoughts are and if any conversation has taken place between the two. Certainly we aren't the only ones to notice.
InsideTheParker said:
So just looking at last year's As who were third in the AL in runs scored, they only had a couple of regulars over 30 (Crisp and Callaspo were the only ones who got a lot of playing time - Crisp was pretty good, Callaspo wasn't; if you want to hold that against Davis, be my guest). Some of the 30-year-olds and late-20s guys who did well while he was in Oakland are people like Donaldson and Moss and (maybe a stretch of the definition of "well" here, but) Jaso, guys who didn't have what you'd call lengthy MLB track records. If you believe that Betts is outperforming his numbers, that Bogaerts has made some real improvement, and that Swihart is starting to get more comfortable, then there could be something to the idea that he doesn't work as well with established stars like Napoli or Ortiz.
I've wondered for a long time what Victor Rodriguez does. He is a constant between two consecutive years of offensive ineptitude, and he's probably easier to fire. But I also agree that focusing on the coaching staff is probably misdirected and that awkward roster construction is the real issue here.
There has been some idea though (in these threads, don't know if Farrell or Chili have said it) that pitchers are more aggressive with first pitch strikes with the Sox because they know the Sox like to run up pitch counts. Results are Sox get behind, to too many two strike counts in which pitchers dominate. So, they may be swinging earlier in the count to try something, anything to get out of the funk. Also, first pitch "get it in" fastballs are common and maybe the most hittable pitch a guy is going to get. Other teams I watch guys swing at first pitches a lot. Nomar did good with that approach. Sox are at the point where they're trying anything and everything.75cent bleacher seat said:
They swung at the first pitch in five of their 36 plate appearances.
Edit: that's lower than their season average of swinging at the first pitch in 25% of PAs
Edit: that's lower than their season average of swinging at the first pitch in 25% of PAs
If I were hired to improve an offense, and given two major free acquisitions to assist in that process, then that unit's regression under my three months of leadership, including a historically inept May, would justify my removal, my past performance in other markets notwithstanding.DanoooME said:
When you're talking "regression," though, who are you talking about? Ortiz is arguably the only regular counted on to be a big producer who fell into a ditch and hasn't shown much ability to get out of it.pjheff said:
Pedey is fine, Holt is fine. Napoli sucked earlier but has been showing signs of life. Neither Betts nor Bogaerts have come along as quickly as we'd like, although Betts in particular has been unlucky and neither is sniffing JBJ territory. Hanley has underperformed a bit, although the injury throws some noise into figuring out what that's about. Sandoval? Frighteningly enough, he's playing pretty close to his projections, which says more about what BC thinks is worth $20m per year than Davis's skills. Swihart belongs in Pawtucket, and would be there if catching for the Sox wasn't prone to Spinal Tap Drummer syndrome.
Victorino has been broken. Nava has sucked, but when you're looking to the Daniel Navas on a team to being significant producers, you've lost your way.
The offense is underperforming, no doubt. But I think when Chili takes the fall, it's partly going to be because this offense was a really overhyped bunch of kids who are now playing like kids and older guys who are now playing like older guys.
pjheff said:
Then no one should ever put you in charge of a hot dog stand, let alone a baseball team. Eventually you'll end up paying millions of dollars per year for guys no longer working in the organization and the philosophy will change so often the players will get more confused and continue on a downward spiral.
Teams that constantly change coaching staffs and managers have one thing in common: they all consistently have shitty performances. There may be a rare exception to the rule, for maybe a year, but that's all it is, an exception.
Sox are also next to last in AL team strikeouts. Houston is first with 458, Sox have 321 and KC 267. There goes that theory (getting behind and striking out too much). So WTF is wrong? 64 kabillion dollar question.kieckeredinthehead said:
I used the word "unit," because I'm referring to to the collective Red Sox team offense that is responsible for scoring runs so as to win baseball games. We can parse individual performances if you like -- my feeling is that we expected little from catcher this year, not from DH, RF, and 1B -- but the team has posted a historically bad 79 runs or 2.8 runs per game in May, regressing from an unspectacular offense in April.P'tucket said:
This offense has already managed the shitty performances and downward spiral that you fear a coaching change will induce.DanoooME said:
The point of my post is that "unit" isn't a useful way to analyze a coach's performance. He works with "players," and not nearly as many of them are underperforming realistic expectations by as radical a margin as we might think at first blush. To be honest, aside from the Sandoval signing, I don't know that there's much else I would have done differently than BC during the offseason in terms of lineup construction given the existing contracts on the roster, salary constraints, etc. I just think that expectations were overblown.pjheff said:
Al Zarilla said:
They're dead last in MLB in BABIP, a full 25 points below the AL average of .292, even though they play in a park that should theoretically goose BABIP. They're also tied for 13th in ISO. Fenway giveth and taketh away in that latter department, but a Red Sox team that's hitting the ball hard shouldn't be near the bottom of the league in either of those columns.
So, short answer: They're not hitting the ball hard enough, and when they do, it's getting caught too often.
Al Zarilla said:
Team K rate, LD rate, and total runs scored:
2015: 16.7% K, 25% LD, 3.8 R/G
2014: 21.5% K, 24% LD, 3.9 R/G
2013: 20.5% K, 23% LD, 5.3 R/G
2012: 19.4% K, 18% LD, 4.5 R/G
2011: 17.3% K, 18% LD, 5.4 R/G
2010: 17.9% K, 19% LD, 5.0 R/G
2009: 17.7% K, 18% LD, 5.4 R/G
2008: 16.7% K, 19% LD, 5.2 R/G
2007: 16.2% K, 19% LD, 5.4 R/G
2006: 16.4% K, 19% LD, 5.1 R/G
2005: 16.3% K, 18% LD, 5.6 R/G
2004: 18.3% K, 18% LD, 5.9 R/G
2003: 14.4% K, 17% LD, 5.9 R/G
The 2015 Red Sox have their lowest team K rate since 2008, and their highest LD rate in at least 13 years. But the lowest number of runs scored in at least 13 years too.
So…..WTF is going on? If Eric Van was here he'd attribute it all to just plain bad luck. But last year they had a 24% LD rate and just one-tenth of a run more scored per game. How can this team hit such a high percentage of line drives (I assume this means they're generally hitting the ball harder) but come up with such a piddly small amount of runs?
ivanvamp said:
Yes, combining the low K rate, high LD rate and the league worst BABIP would certainly indicate that bad luck has had a lot to do with the offensive woes so far this season. I am hopeful, that luck starts to even out soon.
DanoooME said:
You make a valid point that Chili has only had a few months on the job. Although considering the surrounding cocktail that sees sky high expectations being mixed with an epic amount of suck, accompanied by some recent revelations that argues Chili is not even the one doing the job one would expect him to be, i hardly see much limb climbing going on in regards to the opposing viewpoint.
I mean it's the hitting coach in question, and we are not talking Dave Duncan level of accompanying reputation here. Let's not get too carried away with drawing those "we obviously owe it to him and/or ourselves" lines in the sand.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Eleven hits and two walks today, and they scored three runs. Because the eleven hits were all singles.
They're second to last in the AL in SLG. Until that changes, nothing else will.
Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Swihart may not be speedsters, but they're not slow ass station to station players.grimshaw said:
grimshaw said:
Speed shouldn't affect the slugging of guys like Ortiz, Napoli, and Ramirez. Speed wasn't exactly the strong suit of the 2003-2005 teams (outside of Damon and a couple appearances by Dave Roberts) and they slugged the shit out of the ball.
Fenway has traditionally been one of the best doubles parks in baseball. The Red Sox leader in doubles is Betts with 10, which ties him for 81st in MLB.
Speed isn't the problem. It's power.
Speed isn't the problem. It's power.
KenTremendous said:
In terms of batted ball data, the thing that jumps out is that the Sox are 2nd in the AL in GB% and tied for 12th in FB%. They are being hoist on their own groundball petard. It's even worse at Fenway: at home, they are 1st in the league in GB% and last in FB%. If you don't hit fly balls at Fenway, you are giving up most of the offensive benefit the park offers.
The fact that nearly all of their position players are either past their power prime or not yet in it isn't helping either. They suffer from Gamling Syndrome: they have seen too many winters, or too few.
Probably want to exclude Swihart from that list. He has wheels.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
I was looking for a post somewhat like this regarding an organizational shift in plate approach, and think, if anything they are transitioning away from it. When BC was running the farm and Theo was GMing, they wanted every prospect walking at a 10% walk rate or higher. They wanted everyone grinding like it was 2003, with no breaks in the lineup.jimv said:
This current lineup is not built in that mold and that could be part of the problem.
Betts 7.3%, Bogaerts 6%, and Ramirez 5.6% aren't walking enough, if anything. Betts had a 13-15% walk rate in the minors, and 10% last year. Bogaerts was much more of an obp guy in the minors. Hanley is at a career low (his career is 9.5%). Panda is Panda, Castillo has his yips, and really doesn't appear to be one to work counts and get free passes. Swihart's offensive knock is that he is overly aggressive.
The new philosophy is supposedly selective aggressiveness, but it just doesn't seem like they are collectively hitting their pitches. Whether that is from pressing, not watching video breakdowns, not having any plan whatsoever at the plate, we can't really seem to quantify that yet.
ivanvamp said:
Where are you getting your numbers, ivanvamp? fangraphs has the Sox in a race for the bottom of the barrel (or the bottle, for that matter) with a LD% of 19.7, 3% lower than their 3rd best mark of 22.7% in 2013. They're leading the league in 'soft-as-hell' contact, as well, at 21% (which is 8% worst than their mark in 2013, where they had the least soft contact) -- the combination of which is giving them their terminally low BABIP of .269. In fact, no one has a LD% that high, according to fangraphs.
There's a couple ways of thinking about luck here. The first one, which would appear to be incorrect, is that "the balls aren't finding the holes." By all accounts, they shouldn't be. The Sox are hitting like shit.
The other way of thinking about luck would be to say that the Red Sox are all slumping at the same time. That would appear to be a bad piece of luck assuming a number of things: that Ortiz isn't toast, that Betts will find a way to start driving the ball now that pitchers aren't feeding him fastballs inside, that Xander will turn the corner, that Castillo will start to hit, that Napoli will continue to heat up, that Swihart will hit a home run this year, etc.
I've been thinking for a while that this team is going to be just as fearsome as it has been pathetic once everyone heats up at the same time. My optimism has begun to wane. But I can't predict the future, so I'm holding out hope. There's an enormous amount of talent on this team, and if everyone gets hot at once, it could start looking really bad for the AL East.
Yeah when I read Ivan's post I started to get a tad optimistic. Then after thinking about it I figured those numbers couldn't be right. When your LD% sucks and your Soft% is best in the league you can't blame BABIP.
Al Zarilla said:
Striking out isn't necessarily the problem with being behind in the count. When you're down 0-2 or 1-2, the pitcher really has no major incentive to throw a very hittable pitch in those counts. But the hitter has every incentive to swing and try to foul it off if it's anywhere close to a strike (or risk being called out looking). When hitters become defensive, they're less focused on driving a hittable pitch, and more focused on just making contact. When you're swinging at low pitches just off the plate or whatever, you're more likely to weakly ground out.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Al Zarilla said:
Maybe, and it has been frustrating to watch so many well hit balls placed right to the opposing defense, but there may be a reason for this. InsidetheParker and jimv touched on this a bit. Sox hitters trying to pull too much, opposition taking advantage. In any case, despite the numbers telling us we're unlucky, the onus is on the players (and coaches) to make these adjustments, rather than wait for BABIP to normalize.
Presumably from BBref or Baseball Savant, whose batted-ball numbers are similar, and quite different from FG's. Good article about this here. Based on that article, I would say that regardless of which set of numbers is more reliable in any given year, FG's are better for multiyear trend-watching, because the BBref LD rates took a large leap a couple of years ago--which strongly suggests that the criteria for a LD changed at that point--while FG's rates remained fairly steady.Fishy1 said:
Thanks for this. It appears this would explain the jump in LD% ivanvamp had noticed. By bref, everybody is hitting way more line drives now than they were before. And from looking at the article, if I had to guess, it sounds to me like bref reclassified "fliners" to line drives, rather than fly balls. But that's just idle speculation, and probably not useful. It's frustrating that there's a lack of transparency there.Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm pretty sure the hitting coach should always be fired. He is the fifth guy in the horror film who says "I'm just going to run back to the shed to make sure everything is locked up", and as such he should know his role.
Sorry Chili, but that is how it works. You aren't really responsible and in 80% of the cases the hitting coach's impact is completely negligible (with maybe 10% minor positive, 10% minor negative...there aren't any Leo Mazzone's on this side of the ball).
The act of firing can serve as a wakeup call and cause hitter adjustments sometimes especially in the mentally weak and streakier types, but rarely would have any negative impact. It shouldn't be the case, but I think is part of the nature of streaky, superstitious athletes who deal with failing more often than succeeding.
Given that Chili doesn't have any long standing relationship with any of these hitters, I don't think he would be missed, and if a few consciously or subconsciously adjust some aspect of their preparation and approach as a result to perform better, awesome.
Back to the actual data, I agree with Fishy1 that we are not just being unlucky, but actually performing poorly and below expectations across most of the lineup. But I think poor swings and weak contact can regress to the mean as quickly as bad luck absent an injury causing them, so I remain hopeful that our lineup really does feature the people we thought it did, and not the May SSS, and that the predicted future outcome will likely differ significantly from the May performance.
Sorry Chili, but that is how it works. You aren't really responsible and in 80% of the cases the hitting coach's impact is completely negligible (with maybe 10% minor positive, 10% minor negative...there aren't any Leo Mazzone's on this side of the ball).
The act of firing can serve as a wakeup call and cause hitter adjustments sometimes especially in the mentally weak and streakier types, but rarely would have any negative impact. It shouldn't be the case, but I think is part of the nature of streaky, superstitious athletes who deal with failing more often than succeeding.
Given that Chili doesn't have any long standing relationship with any of these hitters, I don't think he would be missed, and if a few consciously or subconsciously adjust some aspect of their preparation and approach as a result to perform better, awesome.
Back to the actual data, I agree with Fishy1 that we are not just being unlucky, but actually performing poorly and below expectations across most of the lineup. But I think poor swings and weak contact can regress to the mean as quickly as bad luck absent an injury causing them, so I remain hopeful that our lineup really does feature the people we thought it did, and not the May SSS, and that the predicted future outcome will likely differ significantly from the May performance.
koufax37 said:
Normally I'd agree with you but when we read stories about Pedroia coming in early to look at tape of Hanley and finding a flaw in his swing I don't know how Chili doesn't get crucified. And the fact that his boss is aware of this happening twice now makes me wonder what the boss is thinking.
Also Napoli is generally regarded as an excellent baserunner, if not a speedster by any means. Not that he's ever on, but hey, you can't accuse him of clogging the bases.gryoung said:
glennhoffmania said:
Yes, I'm willing to consider the possibility that Chili is in the 10% where he is actually responsible for a negative impact and *should* be fired instead of the 80% where he is irrelevant and *might as well* be fired. I think we both agree we can rule out the 10% where he could be a minor positive and *should not* be fired.
glennhoffmania said:
Well, if I may play devil's advocate here, it's entirely possible that Pedroia has been pointing out things that Davis has also pointed out to those same people.
I've been accused of always bringing up the Giants, but, here goes anyway. Since they've been winning in 2010, everybody knows it's been mostly because of pitching and defense. They've had long stretches where their fans were screaming for hitting coach Bam Bam Meulens head on a stick, year after year, their offense has been so weak. This year, out of nowhere, they have the best team BA and OPS in the NL. Giants are having career years all over the place, and that doesn't even include Buster Posey or Hunter Pence. So, what happened? You could see Brandon Belt or Brandon Crawford having a career year because they're still young and have been progressing year by year. But, Nori Aoki at 33? Even perennial fourth outfielder type Gregor Blanco is hitting very well. Did Bam Bam have anything to do with the Giants leap in hitting this year? I doubt it. Nobody knows, or is saying anything. A bunch of them could cool off all at once, sure. Bottom line is that if the Giants can hit like they have been all of a sudden for the first third of this year, I suppose the Red Sox offense could turn it on too. Like KG said, anything is possible. Hope springs eternal.koufax37 said:
I like your 80 - 10 - 10, by the way.
I'd love to see Ortiz and Sandoval each sitting against 50% of LHP, with Hanley sliding into their positions. This should keep them happy, as I'm sure neither Sandoval nor Ortiz would take well to sitting against all LHP. At this stage of their careers, they are both pretty close to equally inept vs. LHP, with Ortiz probably the better hitter, but Sandoval adding some value back with his fielding. The problem is, with any idea of sitting Ortiz/Sandoval against LHP, you need a LF that will outperform them, which would have to be a RHB in most cases. Victorino is a perfect fit. So is a producing Allen Craig. In fact, if you have both, you can put together an absolutely loaded lineup against LHP:Doctor G said:
Betts CF R
Pedroia 2B R
Hanley 3B R
Napoli 1B R
Craig DH R
Victorino RF R
Xander SS R
Castillo LF R
Swihart C R
Imagine being a LHP with a normal platoon split going against that lineup. It's also really strong defensively, with Hanley at 3B the only real liability.
vs. RHP OPS Splits
Player Pos Career 3-Year MiLB
Betts CF .758 .869
Pedroia 2B .794 .734
Ortiz DH 1.007 .991
Hanley LF .854 .822
Sandoval 3B .850 .806
Napoli 1B .819 .801
Xander SS .623 .881
Castillo RF .796 .747
Swihart C .757
--------------------------------
Holt .686 .813
Craig .749 .749
Victorino .726 .683
Hanigan .671 .628
vs. LHP OPS Splits
Player Pos Career 3-Year MiLB
Betts CF .730 .894
Pedroia 2B .846 .846
Hanley 3B .917 .896
Napoli 1B .908 .851
Craig DH .832 .830
Victorino RF .879 .870
Xander SS .785 .834
Castillo LF .556 .865
Hanigan C .768 .703
--------------------------------
Ortiz .802 .852
Swihart .801
Sandoval .686 .654
Holt .736 .667
A few thoughts...
1. Considering Ortiz has a better 3-year split than a career split, it's probably too early to judge him based on only 63 PA vs. LHP this season. If his inability to hit LHP this year were due to age-related decline, I would expect to have seen that in his last 3 years as well.
2. Holt's MLB sample is so small that you really have to just assume a normal LHB platoon split for him at this point and sub him in against RHP primarily. His MiLB splits, which are based on a larger sample, do also show this type of split.
3. The same goes for Xander. Despite him hitting better vs. RHP in the minors, he probably will end up with a normal RHB platoon split. This is showing up in his MLB splits so far.
Player Pos Career 3-Year MiLB
Betts CF .758 .869
Pedroia 2B .794 .734
Ortiz DH 1.007 .991
Hanley LF .854 .822
Sandoval 3B .850 .806
Napoli 1B .819 .801
Xander SS .623 .881
Castillo RF .796 .747
Swihart C .757
--------------------------------
Holt .686 .813
Craig .749 .749
Victorino .726 .683
Hanigan .671 .628
vs. LHP OPS Splits
Player Pos Career 3-Year MiLB
Betts CF .730 .894
Pedroia 2B .846 .846
Hanley 3B .917 .896
Napoli 1B .908 .851
Craig DH .832 .830
Victorino RF .879 .870
Xander SS .785 .834
Castillo LF .556 .865
Hanigan C .768 .703
--------------------------------
Ortiz .802 .852
Swihart .801
Sandoval .686 .654
Holt .736 .667
A few thoughts...
1. Considering Ortiz has a better 3-year split than a career split, it's probably too early to judge him based on only 63 PA vs. LHP this season. If his inability to hit LHP this year were due to age-related decline, I would expect to have seen that in his last 3 years as well.
2. Holt's MLB sample is so small that you really have to just assume a normal LHB platoon split for him at this point and sub him in against RHP primarily. His MiLB splits, which are based on a larger sample, do also show this type of split.
3. The same goes for Xander. Despite him hitting better vs. RHP in the minors, he probably will end up with a normal RHB platoon split. This is showing up in his MLB splits so far.