The Offense

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 12, 2014

Steamer is projecting this roster for 84.6 WAR offensive runs, and that's without Castillo.

Last year, the best team in the majors was the Dodgers at 74.6.

Of course there's quite a bit of uncertainty in those projections given all the young players, old players, guys changing leagues, etc., but still, it kinda looks like we're gonna score some runs.

pokey_reese · Dec 12, 2014

Uh oh Grim, you are going to kick off the annual 'what's-the-optimal-batting-order?" discussion too soon, which will lead to the annual "shut-up-guys-batting-order-only-has-a-negligible-effect-on-run-scoring" argument. This will lead to my internal baseball clock being thrown off and getting too excited before January, then depressed when I realize how far away ST is.

That said...

You are correct that the offense looks great, and the biggest change should come at 3B (obviously) and LF. While Cespedes is a decent overall hitter, it's fairly well established that strictly from the standpoint of "standard" (read: non-composite) stats, OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than slugging, even if it is close.

Cespedes OBP 2014: .301
Ramirez OBP 2014: .369

I think that your chart actually undersells the difference though, by focusing on the numbers of the guys who ended the season at positions, rather than showing what we got from those positions over the year. What's shocking is that the upgrade at LF will actually be larger (presumably) than the upgrade at 3B, which was a vortex of suck with WMB, bad X, and decent Holt.

Sox 3B 2014: .305
Panda 2014: .324

Looking at wRC+ we see big upgrades at these positions

3B 2014 (proj. 2015): 82 (124)
LF 2014 (proj. 2015): 91 (134)

Even if we think that Steamer is overly optimistic on some guys (and I am not sure that it is by much, it has Betts regressing a bit, X as just above average, etc.), getting 30-40 point increases from those two positions makes us a lot better. Then you get to CF...

CF 2014 (proj. 2015): 78 (120)

JBJ (and Grady & co.) put up absolutely putrid numbers offensively, and that number includes the end of the year stats from Mookie & Castillo. Whichever one of them ends up out there has a very good chance of making it a third position at which we can see a 30+ point increase in wRC+.

That's one third of the line-up projecting to a massive increase in offensive production, and doesn't include Xander.

TomRicardo · Dec 12, 2014

On paper this is the best line up in the American league.

Past that they have amazing depth.

AAA - Swihart, (Craig), Middlebrooks, Coyle, Marrerro, JBJ, Hassan, Cechhini, Shaw
Bench - (Craig), Nava, Victorino, HOLT, Unnamed backup catcher keeping Swihart's seat warm

Lineups aren't built with nine guys. The depth they have been able to get is fanastic.

Really they would look awesome if they could grab Soto or Hundley

StupendousMan · Dec 12, 2014

If someone asked me to predict the number of runs the Sox would score next year, for money, I would start with something like the above list: the projected starters. Then I'd roll dice many times, each time picking the two starters who would not produce as projected (injury, random suckage), and replacing them with players of below-average production.

Expecting 9 players to go wire-to-wire for an entire season is unrealistic, and in most cases will lead to overly optimistic results.

Puffy · Dec 12, 2014

TomRicardo said:
On paper this is the best line up in the American league.

Past that they have amazing depth.

AAA - Swihart, (Craig), Middlebrooks, Coyle, Marrerro, JBJ, Hassan, Cechhini, Shaw
Bench - (Craig), Nava, Victorino, HOLT, Unnamed backup catcher keeping Swihart's seat warm

Lineups aren't built with nine guys. The depth they have been able to get is fanastic.

Really they would look awesome if they could grab Soto or Hundley

This is a good point and highlights what has clearly been one of the front office's top priorities of the past few years, coupled with the positional flexibility between the starters and bench.

* Worth noting, perhaps, that Alex Hassan was claimed by the Orioles (via Oakland), IIRC. But Brentz is still on the roster and fills as similar role

Rovin Romine · Dec 12, 2014

StupendousMan said:
If someone asked me to predict the number of runs the Sox would score next year, for money, I would start with something like the above list: the projected starters. Then I'd roll dice many times, each time picking the two starters who would not produce as projected (injury, random suckage), and replacing them with players of below-average production.

Expecting 9 players to go wire-to-wire for an entire season is unrealistic, and in most cases will lead to overly optimistic results.

While I think your note of caution is well taken, I don't think anyone's expecting the opening day lineup to play 162 games. This applies to other teams as well; there will nearly always be under and over performances, plus random injuries.

While it can happen, I don't see how the 2015 Sox are particularly more vulnerable to club-wide underperformance than any other club. In terms of reliability (health, repeating performances) I don't see any great risks here. Well, so long as Pedey is benched for Opening Day. There are injury/performance risks - Napoli's hips, Ortiz's age, Sandoval's weight, Pedroia's and Hanley's nagging injuries, Xander's/Betts'/Castillo's/Vasquez's inexperience, etc. However, there's a real possibility that none of these are issues, or, more likely if one of them flares up, it can be worked around.

This is a deep/versatile team. While there are optimal places to play each player, we can do a lot of position shuffling if needed. For example, while no one really wants to see Hanley at SS (or 3B or 1B) it can be done if we had to. That sort of depth would allow us a greater range in trading for players, should one of the starters go down. (Say, if Panda injures himself, we have the option of playing Hanley there and trading for an OF bat - same with Napoli.) The AAA depth is also very good and could help cover underperformance or injury (either directly or by trade). Hopefully we get a hot hand in AAA again this year.

With that kind of depth/flexibility, I'd hope that Farrell carefully rests his players throughout the season. Good management (e.g., letting players fully heal up) will go a long way to making the above numbers a reality.

I think the biggest improvement will be psychological; the vets (Napoli, Ortiz, Sandoval, Hanley) taking pressure off the younger players and role players.

Comebacker to Foulke · Dec 12, 2014

I really like that on paper anyway, the Sox sure seem to have injury coverage at every fielding position. Especially if Vic and Craig ( 115 wRC+) can hit to their projections.

Drek717 · Dec 12, 2014

Comebacker to Foulke said:
I really like that on paper anyway, the Sox sure seem to have injury coverage at every fielding position. Especially if Vic and Craig ( 115 wRC+) can hit to their projections.

If Vic and Craig rebound the Sox might have some nice deadline ammo. It would probably require a three way deal sending a bat to a contender for prospects and sending those prospects to an out of contention team for their #1 SP, but there is at least some potential that this club as currently constructed could solve a pitching need without dipping into the farm.

Hank Scorpio · Dec 12, 2014

Initially, I was very concerned about the handedness of the lineup, but even with 9 of 12 (Castillo not shown for lack of relevant stats) guys who figure to get a good amount of PAs being primarily RHH, it looks like the lineup should be above average against RHP. If Bogaerts can make a significant improvement on his .610 OPS vs RHP, the offense should be extremely strong against RHP.

vs RHP (2012-2014)

Christian Vazquez: .254/.312/.326/.638
Mike Napoli: .242/.351/.450/.801
Dustin Pedroia: .283/.340/.394/.734
Xander Bogaerts: .224/.279/.331/.610
Pablo Sandoval: .293/.350/.456/.806
Hanley Ramirez: .284/.350/.472/.822
Mookie Betts: .275/.371/.427/.798
Shane Victorino: .251/.312/.371/.683 (in 2013 .282/.340/.429/.769)
David Ortiz: .301/.407/.584/.991
Daniel Nava: .300/.391/.437/.828
Allen Craig: .277/.341/.408/.749

And the lineup figures to flatout murder LHP, but we already knew that.

Not that it'll happen considering the contracts involved, but it might make sense to sit Sandoval vs LHP, start Victorino in LF and move Hanley to 3B for those games. Victorino's bat is elite vs LHP. But that's only if you don't worry about jerking Hanley around the field, the subsequent defensive downgrade at 3B,and possibly bruising Sandoval's ego by putting him in a platoon. So it's not likely to happen.

vs LHP (2012-2014)

Christian Vazquez: .189/.295/.243/.538
Mike Napoli: .257/.376/.475/.851
Dustin Pedroia: .307/.383/.463/.846
Xander Bogaerts: .281/.347/.439/.786
Pablo Sandoval: .249/.301/.353/.654
Hanley Ramirez: .288/.372/.524/.896
Mookie Betts: .328/.361/.483/.844
Shane Victorino: .319/.374/.496/.870
David Ortiz: .280/.342/.510/.852
Daniel Nava: .209/.278/.300/.578
Allen Craig: .290/.326/.504/.830

I'm extremely pleased with the offense, and with DL time likely for Napoli, it makes sense to hang on to Nava and Craig as part of a emergency 1B platoon. In the meantime, they can give Ortiz, Napoli and the outfielders days off as needed. And they're awesome weapons to have in the later innings if you need a PH for Vazquez or someone.

One thing the splits reaffirm to me, is just how valuable Shane Victorino is if healthy. The biggest "problem" I have with the offense as constructed is that the outfield logjam may leave Victorino without regular playing time - and this is a guy who could be one of the most valuable players in the league. He's too good to just move as a salary dump, and if he shows he's the same player he was in 2013, he's extremely valuable both to this team and as a trade chip.

lxt · Dec 12, 2014

Awhile ago I used Markov's Run Expectations (Can't find the spreadsheet) with Cespedes in the lineup and no Panda or Hanley. I grabbed Steamer's projections and gave Castillo the same numbers as Bogaerts and came in and around 800 runs. I imagine the current roster could add 50 runs to that total. That's a nice jump from the 634 the Sox scored last season. If they can keep the runs allowed around 700 then the differential would be similar to the A's & Angels. A little quick math and you can see the Sox at about 90 wins.

Edit: Run source: http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/team-run-differential/2014/

Sampo Gida · Dec 12, 2014

There is a fair amount of uncertainty for Castillo, Xander, Vazquez and Betts I would say. I am optimistic, but large error bands there.

Pablos projection seems a tad optmistic given his last 3 yrs average is 116 (111 in 2015) and he will have a bit of a league adjustment as will Hanley. Hanley will also be dealing with a position change. Pedey might be a bit low if he is healthy

I like the lineup on paper, but I will temper my expectations for an offense thats top 5 in the AL.

Also, the bench will get anywhere from 1000-1500 PA with normal injury/rest rates, and that plays a big role in the overall production. Hard to project that since we don't know the backup catcher and Nava, Craig and Victrino coming off erratic seasons or injury

geoduck no quahog · Dec 12, 2014

Projected Lineups AL East (Offensive WAR):

New York - Gardner (4.0), Prado (1.1), Ellsbury (8.7), McCann (4.7), Beltran (6.4), Teixeira (0.7), Slappy (-5.0), Young (-0.7), Gregorius (-4.0) = 15.9

Baltimore - De Aza (2.2), Machado (7.7), Jones (12.8), Davis (13.8), Pearce (18.1), Hardy (-6.5), Joseph (-6.0), Lough (-2.8), Schoop (-10.8) = 28.5

Tampa Bay - Jennings (2.3), Zobrist (12.6), Longoria (16.8), Loney (2.1), Myers (9.8), Joyce (9.4), Escobar (-4.4), DeJesus (-0.5), Hanigan (-6.6) = 41.5

Toronto - Reyes (7.5), Martin (4.9), Bautista (35.1), Encanarcion (29.3), Donaldson (17.8), Smoak (1.6), Saunders (5.4), Izturis (-3.6), Pompey (-10.3) = 87.7

Boston - Betts (9.5), Pedroia (8.0), Ortiz (17.8), Ramirez (22.9), Sandoval (13.0), Castillo (use Victorino @ 3.3), Napoli (12.4), Bogaerts (2.5), Vazquez (-4.1) = 85.3

Showing Toronto and Boston clearly leading the pack - with Castillo plugged in at 3.3, Bogaerts sort of underestimated also.

Two things stand out:

1. Toronto is stacked at 3-4-5

2. Boston has a really well balanced 1-9, with almost no one projected to be in negative territory

Carroll Hardy · Dec 12, 2014

Even more uncertainty with 800+ OPS everyday OFs like Craig, Victorino, and Nava a year or two removed. If they are healthy, who would be surprised if they rake? How many teams can put out a lineup w/3 800+ OPS everyday OFs? And we don't even plan to start ANY of them. Wow.

Reverend · Dec 12, 2014

lxt said:
Awhile ago I used Markov's Run Expectations (Can't find the spreadsheet) with Cespedes in the lineup and no Panda or Hanley. I grabbed Steamer's projections and gave Castillo the same numbers as Bogaerts and came in and around 800 runs. I imagine the current roster could add 50 runs to that total. That's a nice jump from the 634 the Sox scored last season. If they can keep the runs allowed around 700 then the differential would be similar to the A's & Angels. A little quick math and you can see the Sox at about 90 wins.

Edit: Run source: http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/team-run-differential/2014/

More fun with Markov

Basic takeaway of the most excellent 4 part series is that a player's offensive value to different teams may be different based on who else is in the line-up. This would suggest that teams could (and therefore) should target players that would be more valuable to them than other teams due to this sort of competitive advantage.

The 2013 had the wOBA effect in spades with their relentless line-up of guys getting on base that served as a kind of multiplier for each player's ability. If Vazquez can get his hitting up to par, they may be in the area of having a similar line-up effect.

lxt · Dec 13, 2014

There is no Rev said:
More fun with Markov

Basic takeaway of the most excellent 4 part series is that a player's offensive value to different teams may be different based on who else is in the line-up. This would suggest that teams could (and therefore) should target players that would be more valuable to them than other teams due to this sort of competitive advantage.

In that line of thought:

RF Betts/Victorino (Healthy Victorino) ... The Speed & OBP
2B Pedroia
LF Hanley ... Power & Speed
DH Ortiz ... The Power
1B Napoli
3B Panda ... Stead bat, some power & acceptable OBP
SS Bogaerts ... Some power, some speed & potential OBP
CF Castillo (Unknown potential ... thinking Victorino #s from 2013)
C Vazquez (Vazquez can get his hitting up to par)

Good for about 800 - 850 runs - Slightly better than LAA, Tigers, Rockies & A's level production in 2014

URI · Dec 13, 2014

Hey guys...posting actual content is still a thing.

This still has not morphed into a chatroom.

lxt · Dec 15, 2014

I don't know if it was a thread or just a discussion spun up but there was a lot of talk about Fenway being benefit to batters who lift the ball towards left & left center. The discussion seem to indicate with some good statistics that the Green Monster provides a benefit as the balls lifted would hit the Monster rather than get caught. The talk showed how hitters such as Hanley and Panda would benefit from using the Green Monster.

To summarize the offense can be more productive at Fenway because of the style of hitters acquired and their ability to use the Green Monster.

caminante11 · Jan 13, 2015

The following quote gets me so excited for the season to start.

"The one thing that clearly stands out is we have balance left- and right-handed," Farrell said. "I have always liked David in the No. 3 hole. You know he is going to come up in the first inning. I think Hanley gives David some protection behind him. Then you start to create some protection, and we want to keep Sandoval on the left side of the plate as much as possible -- so if you sandwich him in between Ramirez and Napoli, you start to have a formidable middle of the order where you're going left-right-left-right all the way through there."

Link: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/106000656/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-sees-hanley-ramirez-hitting-cleanup-in-new-look-lineup

Looks like:

Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Ramirez
Sandoval
Napoli

flymrfreakjar · Jan 13, 2015

caminante11 said:
The following quote gets me so excited for the season to start.

Link: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/106000656/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-sees-hanley-ramirez-hitting-cleanup-in-new-look-lineup

Looks like:

Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Ramirez
Sandoval
Napoli

Boy if Xander takes a step forward and Castillo is as advertised, this could be a very special line-up. Certainly exciting!

The Gray Eagle · Jan 13, 2015

Fangraphs projection for 2015 has the Red Sox with the best offense in baseball, at 4.56 runs per game. (the pitching is projected to be 22nd in baseball at 4.23 runs per game, with an overall projection of 87 wins, best in the AL East.)

Fangraph's individual projections for the Red Sox are pretty sweet for the offense, despite a lousy projection for Castillo: 217/275/320. (They actually have Bradley doing better than Castillo: 235/304/348 but in only 70 PAs.) Xander's isn't that great but still fine for a SS: 256/319/406.

Everybody else is rosy though: .368 wOBA for Ortiz and Hanley, Betts 284/353/422. Craig .277/335/438 in 210 PAs.

Not sure what those projections are worth, but the ones for the offense are sure fun to look at. The pitching, not so much.

Cesar Crespo · Jan 13, 2015

I wonder if they'd bat Castillo 9th to take advantage of his speed with Mookie leading off. I guess it depends how much truth is to the "late bloomer to the damage train" stuff, but X projects for power too, and probably a better obp.

The lineup reminds me of the 2003-04' lineups where Bill Mueller bats 8th, although off the top of my head those lineups didn't have a Chrisian Vazquez although Millar sucked in 2004.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jan 13, 2015

bosox79 said:
I wonder if they'd bat Castillo 9th to take advantage of his speed with Mookie leading off. I guess it depends how much truth is to the "late bloomer to the damage train" stuff, but X projects for power too, and probably a better obp.

The lineup reminds me of the 2003-04' lineups where Bill Mueller bats 8th, although off the top of my head those lineups didn't have a Chrisian Vazquez although Millar sucked in 2004.

He had a 117 OPS+ in 2004 and wasn't a significantly below average hitter until 2008. His OPS+ tied him with Johnny Damon. That 2004 lineup was incredibly deep, meaning he wasn't anywhere near the best hitter on the team, but he was still well better than average.

His OPS+ in 2003 was only 110, but that's a long way from sucking.

Cesar Crespo · Jan 13, 2015

That's what I get for not looking it up. They did give Pokey Reese 268PA to post an OPS+ of 46 and Gabe Kapler posted a 77 in 310. So that's 578PA at an OPS of 63 if my math is right.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jan 13, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
He had a 117 OPS+ in 2004 and wasn't a significantly below average hitter until 2008. His OPS+ tied him with Johnny Damon. That 2004 lineup was incredibly deep, meaning he wasn't anywhere near the best hitter on the team, but he was still well better than average.

His OPS+ in 2003 was only 110, but that's a long way from sucking.

Same thing caught my eye, but I do remember he limped along mightily until just before the late July series with the Yankees that included Tek v Arod and Mueller's HR. He made an adjustment in his stance, going wide open, and suddenly came to life. He raised his OPS about 75 points in 3 games, including a 3-HR outburst the night before the brawl.

.269/.348/.384/.732, 5 HR, 25 RBI before July 21.
.336/.429/.602/1.030, 13 HR, 49 RBI from July 21 on.

Definitely a tale of two seasons for him.

Jack Rabbit Slim · Jan 13, 2015

caminante11 said:
The following quote gets me so excited for the season to start.

Link: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/106000656/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-sees-hanley-ramirez-hitting-cleanup-in-new-look-lineup

Looks like:

Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Ramirez
Sandoval
Napoli

That top six followed by Bogaerts, Castillo, and Vazquez makes for an incredible line-up. Two points/questions though:

1. Until Victorino is relocated, I am assuming CF and RF will be a timeshare between Castillo, Betts, and Vic. With no other obvious candidate to leadoff, does Vic bat #1 when Mookie is on the bench?

2. IMO, Napoli is clearly a better hitter than Sandoval, so I would rather see Ortiz/Ramirez/Napoli/Sandoval through the heart of the order. I understand that it is traditional to alternate handedness, but most teams are not this lopsided. With only two LHH in the regular lineup, wouldn't it be more prudent to separate them more? With Ramirez and Napoli between them, you would all but eliminate LOOGYs being able to sneak a LRL inning in late in the game.

RIrooter09 · Jan 13, 2015

Agreed with regards to point 2. Napoli is the superior hitter, so he should be ahead of Sandoval.

nothumb · Jan 13, 2015

I also agree with Napoli at 5. You've got a bunch of righties at the bottom of the lineup most days anyway, so having Sandoval break that up from the 6 hole doesn't seem any worse. Better, perhaps, if you are trying to limit the ability of a guy with a great split vs. RHB to plow through the lower half of the order.

teddywingman · Jan 14, 2015

I didn't watch enough baseball last year to even pretend that I know much of what I'm talking about. But no matter how this lineup is constructed--it has so many uncertainties--almost that it can be used as an advantage?

What I mean to say is that righty/lefty lineup constructions usually sort themselves out at some point in the season--and sometimes at a point in one game.

I'm trying to get at the point that lineup construction sorts itself out with a good hitting team; like we think this team will be.

The left/right matchups:

Do they really mean anything in the beginning of a season?

Assuming there's some depth to the bench--which this team appears to have. It's not like you're going to face a different starting pitcher because of a predominant handedness in the lineup. Right?

Somewhere about 5.1 innings into the game the manager starts to mix it up.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that in most of the regular season, the left/right sequence of the starting lineup seems way overrated to me.

SoxinSeattle · Jan 17, 2015

Olney says Sox have best offense in baseball. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/9159/red-sox-lead-top-10-ranks-of-mlb-lineups?refresh=true

"Even before the Red Sox closed a 2014 season in which they finished 18th in runs, Boston GM Ben Cherington had brought change. Mookie Betts, who dominated in the minor leagues, was promoted in the last couple of months and thrived, generating a .368 on-base percentage in 52 games. The Red Sox spent a lot of money on Rusney Castillo and got him to the big leagues, where he had a small sample of success. In November, Boston made two lightning strikes to sign two veteran hitters who've demonstrated the ability to hit good pitchers, Pablo Sandoval andHanley Ramirez..."

lxt · Jan 18, 2015

The Gray Eagle said:
Fangraphs projection for 2015 has the Red Sox with the best offense in baseball, at 4.56 runs per game. (the pitching is projected to be 22nd in baseball at 4.23 runs per game, with an overall projection of 87 wins, best in the AL East.)

The numbers I came up with for the offense (Markov's Run Expectations) was roughly 810 runs. That being said the 739 from Fangraphs would pretty much match up with my numbers as Fangraphs has historically been a little more conservative in their estimates. Either number is better than the 634 scored last year. Considering a full year with Betts, the additions of Hanley and Panda, healthy years from Victorino, Napoli, Craig & Pedroia and offensive improvements from Bogaerts would make the Fangraphs number seem readily obtainable.

However, the 686 runs that Fangraphs figures indicate the staff will give up is a tad concerning. I have no magic analysis to argue with Fangraphs estimates but I find them a tad high. The Sox defense capabilities along with the potential possible with the GB oriented staff seems to indicate something more along the lines of 650 - 660 runs - an 79 - 89 run differential.

Run Differentials from 2014:
A 53 run differential is not all that bad as it would pretty much match with the differentials produced by Detroit, Pittsburgh & SF last season (88 - 90 Wins - all Playoff Teams). A differential that is more along the lines of a 100 - 110 runs would produce numbers that were reached by the Dodgers and Orioles (94 - 96 Wins - Playoff Teams). The 157 run differential produced by the A's is a bit misleading since they had a large drop off in offense after the All-star break (89 Wins - Playoff Team). One most also take into account the Marines 80 run differential which gave them 87 wins and no playoff spot. The Nationals and Angels put up the largest run differentials with significant wins (96 - 98 Wins - Playoff Teams).

Summary:
If the Sox perform as Fangraphs predicts then I can easily see the Sox putting 87 - 90 wins together and gaining at least a WC spot. However, I believe they'll produce a better run differential and thus produce something like 90 - 93 wins which would definitely be a WC spot but also has the potential to win the division.

ItOnceWasMyLife · Jan 26, 2015

I love that Napoli's No.1 comp is Greg Luzinski.

Pozo the Clown · Jan 26, 2015

Granted, nobody ever proclaims: "I've been feeling f*ckin' awful all offseason and I'm totally unprepared for spring training...I expect to have a frighteningly bad season which will place my baseball future in great jeopardy..." That said, with Joe Kelly predicting a Cy Young Award for himself, it's nice to read that the other half of the Lackey trade is also in good spirits. Barring unforeseen setbacks to others, a return to health/form from Craig would give the Sox plenty of options. Craig feeling good, ready for action in 2015

Saints Rest · Jan 27, 2015

Pozo the Clown said:
Granted, nobody ever proclaims: "I've been feeling f*ckin' awful all offseason and I'm totally unprepared for spring training...I expect to have a frighteningly bad season which will place my baseball future in great jeopardy..." That said, with Joe Kelly predicting a Cy Young Award for himself, it's nice to read that the other half of the Lackey trade is also in good spirits. Barring unforeseen setbacks to others, a return to health/form from Craig would give the Sox plenty of options. Craig feeling good, ready for action in 2015

I have two friends at work who are both hardcore Cardinals fan who are serious about baseball and follow it closely. Both raved about Craig (and to a lesser extent, Kelly). Both these guys are the sort who would never have hesitated to rub it in my face if the Sox got crappy guys.

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 28, 2015

So if Craig is healthy and looks ready to party like it's 2012, where the $#@% do we play him?

I have a feeling all you "you can never have too much talent/these things have a way of working themselves out" guys are about to see your theory tested big-time.

Rovin Romine · Jan 28, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
So if Craig is healthy and looks ready to party like it's 2012, where the $#@% do we play him?

I have a feeling all you "you can never have too much talent/these things have a way of working themselves out" guys are about to see your theory tested big-time.

I really wouldn't worry about it. If injury does not open up a spot, someone will be traded because injury will open up a spot on another team. We can always do a 2 for 1 swap - say, Craig and a starter for a higher caliber starter (the Lackey trade in reverse.)

phenweigh · Jan 28, 2015

Rovin Romine said:
I really wouldn't worry about it. If injury does not open up a spot, someone will be traded because injury will open up a spot on another team. We can always do a 2 for 1 swap - say, Craig and a starter for a higher caliber starter (the Lackey trade in reverse.)

Certainly too little depth is more of a concern as compared to too much depth. But this could certainly become an interesting issue.

Minneapolis Millers · Jan 28, 2015

Or we can trade him for a good prospect. Lots of options. I think most of us believe that, given health and no other injuries, one of Vic/Craig (maybe Nava) will get traded this spring.

nvalvo · Jan 28, 2015

If he really shows signs that he's back, you have him spell Ortiz, Napoli, Hanley, Pedroia (Betts to 2B, Craig to RF), Castillo and Betts once per week until someone gets hurt or you get a great trade offer. Everyone plays six of seven.

The veterans bitch, and Ben Cherington says "sorry I built too good a team LOL."

Rasputin · Jan 28, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
So if Craig is healthy and looks ready to party like it's 2012, where the $#@% do we play him?

I have a feeling all you "you can never have too much talent/these things have a way of working themselves out" guys are about to see your theory tested big-time.

DH, First Base, and Left Field.

If Craig is healthy and performing well, it's a small or non existent downgrade to go from Ortiz, Napoli, or Ramirez to Craig. If we can keep them healthier by giving them more time off, it's worth it, especially with a position opening up in 2016.

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 28, 2015

Rasputin said:
DH, First Base, and Left Field.

If Craig is healthy and performing well, it's a small or non existent downgrade to go from Ortiz, Napoli, or Ramirez to Craig. If we can keep them healthier by giving them more time off, it's worth it, especially with a position opening up in 2016.

So Betts or Castillo is going to Pawtucket? That's the only way we can have Craig, Victorino and Nava all on the Opening Day roster, unless we go with 11 pitchers.

In my lifetime · Jan 28, 2015

Rasputin said:
DH, First Base, and Left Field.

If Craig is healthy and performing well, it's a small or non existent downgrade to go from Ortiz, Napoli, or Ramirez to Craig. If we can keep them healthier by giving them more time off, it's worth it, especially with a position opening up in 2016.

And actually there are potentially 3 positions opening up:
Napoli
Victorino --- granted not counting on him to start in 2015 at this point
Papi ----- I think he will play in 2016, but his retirement unfortunately is in the not too distant future

And if everyone looks healthy in the spring, a trade is likely. Just not worth trading Victorino or Craig now, since their current value considering their contracts is certainly negative and can only be improved in the Spring.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jan 28, 2015

If Craig is healthy and productive, he's extremely valuable to the Sox going forward. If they like what they see in the Spring, it will just force their hand to move Victorino or Nava.

Yelling At Clouds · Jan 28, 2015

People keep suggesting that Nava could be on the move, but as he is one of very few LHH on the roster, I don't see it. I'm guessing it actually will be Betts in Pawtucket to start the year, which is semi-defensible, even if it isn't what I would prefer.

Mighty Joe Young · Jan 28, 2015

Yep - I think Vic is the odd man out here. Which is a shame as he'd make a great 4th OF. But of Victorino and Nava I'd prefer Nava as he's cheap , a LH and can play 1B.

I will be livid if they send Betts down. But, if there's one constant throughout the Henry years its the Org's penchant for retaining assets - talent be dammed.

Minneapolis Millers · Jan 28, 2015

Agreed, BC. If Vic is healthy, he has value and can be moved for that value while simultaneously saving the Sox $$$ and easing the OF congestion. If he isn't healthy, he starts on the DL, and they figure things out later.

The biggest problem for them will be if Vic looks like Sizemore - relatively healthy but fragile and needing to be eased into things and possibly capable of only being a P/T player. I'm not sure anyone trades for that, and I'm not sure that's worth keeping on this roster, given the other available options.

Rasputin · Jan 28, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
So Betts or Castillo is going to Pawtucket? That's the only way we can have Craig, Victorino and Nava all on the Opening Day roster, unless we go with 11 pitchers.

If Craig is healthy and effective, what the hell do we need with Daniel Nava? Betts, Castillo, and a healthy Victorino bring things to the table that Craig doesn't. They've got some speed and the ability to play defense in center and right at a level that isn't just okay, but is actually pretty good.

If everyone is healthy, it will be a coaching/scouting decision whether to keep Betts up and in right or to dump Nava, and I suspect that's largely going to be based on what they think Craig can do.

Danny_Darwin said:
People keep suggesting that Nava could be on the move, but as he is one of very few LHH on the roster, I don't see it. I'm guessing it actually will be Betts in Pawtucket to start the year, which is semi-defensible, even if it isn't what I would prefer.

A healthy Craig hits right-handed pitching better than Daniel Nava.

In my lifetime said:
And actually there are potentially 3 positions opening up:
Napoli
Victorino --- granted not counting on him to start in 2015 at this point
Papi ----- I think he will play in 2016, but his retirement unfortunately is in the not too distant future

And if everyone looks healthy in the spring, a trade is likely. Just not worth trading Victorino or Craig now, since their current value considering their contracts is certainly negative and can only be improved in the Spring.

Craig can't really replace Victorino, though. They have different skill sets. Victorino can play good defense in center and right and Craig can't.

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Yep - I think Vic is the odd man out here. Which is a shame as he'd make a great 4th OF. But of Victorino and Nava I'd prefer Nava as he's cheap , a LH and can play 1B.

I will be livid if they send Betts down. But, if there's one constant throughout the Henry years its the Org's penchant for retaining assets - talent be dammed.

I don't get preferring Nava at all. You need a back up OF that can play right and center. If you get rid of Victorino, you don't have one. Meanwhile, Nava's one talent is hitting right handed pitching, which a healthy Craig does better, and Craig can also play first.

The Offense

Member

loves the secret sauce

Member

rusty cohlebone

Member

Member

Member

Johnny Rico

New Member

Member

Member

New Member

Member

not particularly consistent

pinky higgins

for king and country

New Member

stands for life, liberty and the uturian way of li

New Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

79

oppresses WARmongers

79

Member

Member

Alvin

Member

Looks like Zach Galifianakis

Member

New Member

Member

Member

Member

New Member

Well-Known Member

loves the secret sauce

Johnny Rico

Member

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!

Member

Will outlive SeanBerry

loves the secret sauce

Well-Known Member

has big, douchey shoulders

Post-darwinian

The North remembers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!

Will outlive SeanBerry