Here's my organizational plan. It's predicated on the following:
1. Stanton won't come here (or Jeter won’t trade him here) and we also miss out on JDM, maybe by a Yankee team wanting an obvious replacement for Matt Holliday with considerable opposite field power.
2. We need six viable starters as a safeguard against Price going down, which means we need to acquire the sixth via trade. Steven Wright doesn't count.
3. We need to sell high in a couple cases to restock the farm.
4. This overhauls half the team and is obviously unrealistic, but there are discrete moves and targets in here that I like (Duffy, Fulmer, Belt, selling high on Pom).
Trade Porcello and Barnes to the Cubs for Kyle Schwarber and Tommy La Stella
The Cubs' staff is losing a lot of innings, and two years of Porcello (at 2/$42) gives Alzolay and De La Cruz more prep even if they also sign Darvish or reunite Cobb with Hickey. Barnes is a good reliever, but Farrell lost trust in him and I think most of us did too. He's a former Theo draftee, and four years of him is a good get a for a pen that has Carl Edwards Jr. and Strop and basically no one else. The LHH La Stella's not as good as his .368 OBA last year with the Cubs would indicate, but he's a more-than-capable backup with good OBP and contact skills. He and Marco could be a solid and cheap Pedroia replacement that could spell Devers late in games once Pedey's healthy. Schwarber's likely done in Chicago. He's interesting, but too risky for us...
Trade Schwarber, Chavis, Brian Johnson, and Marrero to Kansas City for Danny Duffy (4/$60m), Joakim Soria (1/$9 with a $10m option for 2019), Josh Staumont and Jason Hammel (1/$9M)
KC's in a full rebuild and could be a prime spot for Schwarber. Duffy's entering his age-29 season and has possible 1A upside for four years. Trading for Soria could help us move Kimbrel, if that's something we want to do. Scouts say 23-year-old right-handed SP prospect Josh Staumont and his huge fastball (and command issues) could be dominant in the pen. Hammel is not good, but he's a solid #6 starter that could eke out a 2-win, 2017-Porcello-type year, and with our dominant bullpen (and followed in the rotation by Sale), I like him as a 4-5 inning guy — he's very bad third time through the order. This pushes Steven Wright to a #7. Johnson and Marrero are out of options. They're not prizes, but it's possible the former can be a decent #4-5 for them, and they might view the latter as an improvement on Cheslor Cuthbert.
Trade Pomeranz and Hembree to St. Louis for OF Randal Grichuk and minor league SS Delvin Perez
The Cards have a lot of SP prospects about to graduate (Weaver, Flaherty, Reyes), but they're likely iffy about relying on them all being healthy and effective, especially with Wainwright's question marks. They lose Lance Lynn to FA, and Pom could slide in with Martinez/Wainwright/Wacha as a solid base. Grichuk's not a huge get, but he's about to get squeezed out of an outfield that already includes Dexter Fowler, and saw breakouts in 2017 by Jose Martinez and Tommy Pham. They're in on Stanton, have Bader and Sierra nearly ready, and Stephen Piscotty under contract through 2022. They’re moving him, and he seems made for Fenway hitter. He strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much, but his hard hit rate (41%) is near-elite. His 51.3% pull rate is Millar-level extreme, which suggests he might be helped by the Monster. The real prize here could be 18-year-old Delvin Perez, a low-minors top SS prospect that could replace Bogaerts in a few years, that the Cards mayyy be alright moving with the breakout of Paul DeJong.
Trade Bradley to the Giants for Brandon Belt and RHP Tyler Beede
I'm a huge Bradley fan so I don't love this, but Belt is excellent and a way better get than Morrison, Alonso, or Duda. His patient approach may be less valuable in an era where it's no longer as rewarding to get into a team's bullpen, but he's still an excellent regular with quiet 4-5 win upside. The 4/$64 contract isn't cheap, but the collapse rate seems really low. His .365 OBA over 2016-17 is 7th among MLB first basemen (above Miggy, Abreu, Hosmer, Santana, and Hanley), he's an even more pronounced opposite field hitter than Moreland, and plays excellent defense. The Giants have big slugger type Chris Shaw ready.
Trade Sam Travis and Craig Kimbrel to the Rockies for LHP Mike Dunn and RHP Riley Pint and OF Raimel Tapia
2018 is the Rockies' last year with Blackmon and LeMahieu (and 2019 the last with Arenado). They lose Neshek, Holland, and McGee from their bullpen and seemed to realize this year how crucial bullpens are. They also lose Mark Reynolds and have no 1B prospects, while Ian Desmond is obviously best suited for the OF. Travis works there. Meanwhile, Mike Dunn had a terrible first year at Coors and a solid one away, holding hitters to a .271 OBA in line with his vintage years. He might be just be bad for that park. Pint has ace upside and a huge fastball, and 23-year-old Raimel Tapia is an entertaining OF who can hit. I don't think they'd give up Brendan Rodgers for anything, but if Kimbrel+ gets him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
Trade Brock Holt, Roniel Raudes, Austin Maddox, Hanley Ramirez and Sandy Leon to the Tigers for Michael Fulmer, Nick Castellanos, and a subsidized Miguel Cabrera
Ok! Here are the reasons I'd do this:
1. Cabrera is not done. His 2017 was bad and he was hurt, but also unlucky. His 91.1 exit velo was still elite, ranked behind Judge, Cruz, Gallo, Sano, Khris Davis, Stanton, Zimmerman, and Yasmany Tomas — and that's it. He should, however, be a full-time DH. (More here:
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/9/22/16336218/miguel-cabrera-tigers-decline-statcast-fangraphs-line-drives-hard-hit-rate-exit-velocity.)
2. Still, his 6/$184 contract is terrible. Offloading Hanley shaves, in a sense, $20 from that. And Fulmer, who DD acquired in 2015, squares it.
3. Michael Fulmer is controllable through 2022. He has one of the best fastballs in the game (and the worst curveballs). Five years of Fulmer is roughly $100m of surplus value even if he stays a 3-3.5 win pitcher.
4. Castellanos is about to break out, but through another lens, he's a disappointing two-win player who just got bumped from his primary position by top prospect Jaimer Candelario. He's also got elite underlying stats and an unreal hard hit ball rate. I have a hunch that his limitations at 3B effed with his confidence, and that a full-time OF Castellanos would go off. (Since Candelario replaced him at 3B on 9/2, Castellanos hit .358/.377/651 in 114 PA, a .426 wOBA). We'd have him through 2019, which is our window.
5. None of the big ticket 2018-19 FAs fit with our team.
6. Hanley can re-establish some value as RHH home run power plays better in Comerica. Leon forms a tandem with McCann. Raudes took a step back last year but is still 19. Maddox's 0.52 ERA should not confuse him for someone special. And Holt replaces Austin Romine, who they just lost to Seattle.
7. DD seems to “win” trades like these where a lot of contract money changes hands — like Fielder/Kinsler and his original Miggy trade.
Lineup
1. Betts - CF
2. Benintendi - LF
3. Cabrera - DH
4. Devers - 3B
5. Castellanos - RF
6. Belt - 1B
7. Bogaerts - SS
8. La Stella/Pedroia - 2B
9. Vazquez/Swihart - C
Bench
Grichuk, La Stella, Swihart, Brentz, Lin/Hernandez
Staff
Sale, Price, Fulmer, Duffy, EdRod, Hammel, Wright
Pen
Soria, Kelly, Dunn, Smith, Thornburg, Workman, Hernandez, Scott, Wright, Elias
Farm
Groome, Pint, Mata, Staumont, Shawaryn, Tapia, Ockimey, Maitan, Perez, Beede, Houck, Flores
Notes
1. Four LH starters is weird, but it's okay in the AL East. The Yanks are more vulnerable to lefties (at home slightly; in Fenway considerably) while Judge is, oddly, substantially worse. Toronto's RHH murderers' row is gone. Rays are worse vs. LHP; O's even.
2. Tell Trey Ball the game is changing and he's converting to an "Andrew Miller-style" reliever role. Pin him to Sale in spring training.
3. I doubt Pedroia's ready by May, like reports have said. Let him rehab until he's 100%, all year if necessary.
4. Sign SS Kevin Maitan if MLB strips him from the Braves. Sign RHP David Hernandez for the pen.
5. This is predicated on us being able to move big contracts like Porcello and Hanley.
If we pay $20m of Cabrera's salary, that's roughly a $205m team. If we pay it in full, it's $215m. And I think it gets us back in the top 10 farm systems. Even if that Kimbrel trade is too cute, we'd still be well under the heavy luxury tax penalty for 2018.