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Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    JD Martinez is a 30yo who plays a full time OF, and had a 3 year .900ops run coming into this monster contract year where he slugged .690. He's the best and still relatively young FA bat to hit an open market since....heck, feel free to fill that in yourself to put it in another perspective.

    $125m is a complete fantasy imo. But like I pointed out earlier, I'll be sure to put you down on the incoming rude awakening list.
     
  2. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I don't think it's all that nuts if he did sign for 5 years. Edwin Encarnacion also averaged a .900 OPS over a 3 year run and only got 20 mill AAV.

    Even if you go up to 27 mill at 6 years to account for the 4 year age difference and OF positional adjustment that is $162 right there. And 27 is more than every mlb position player with the exception of Miguel Cabrera who seems like an outlier to pay for past performance. Even Stanton is averaging 25 - though length definitely discounts that AAV.

    I'll go 6/$156 since he is also a future 1b/DH and gives a lot of his value back from the field.
     
    #202 grimshaw, Nov 1, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2017
  3. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    As I've pointed out in the past, EE is a terrible overall comp there due to age and his already visible amount of positional concern amounting to more then "WAR doesn't like his defense". It's grasping at straws more then anything else.

    $125-$150m does put you in prime position to make the winning bid on Justin Upton when he opts out though. Who ironically enough has gotten almost zero speculative play in comparison, even though he would indeed be a fairly huge offensive upgrade given last year #'s.

    Why? Because JD Martinez is a lot better. From both an offense standpoint, and as a decent return on our dollar bet. I fully expect the market as a whole to reflect that just as much as the potential interest here has.
     
  4. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Maybe working backwards from Cespedes is better. Yoenis rates better than Martinez in the field and somewhat worse at the plate. Yoenis was a year older when he signed a 4 year 110 contract - an AAV of 27.5 (just last year). I think Martinez has a shot at a 5th year, but much more likely an AL one because of the DH. I may have just talked myself into 5 years instead of 6 but maybe he gets 30 per.

    He and Upton both picked the right time to have career years, but I'd be surprised if Upton got a huge raise. It was probably worth it for him to not be stuck on a sinking ship. I mean he has a career wRC+ of 121 and is so so in LF, which is wonderful but I doubt teams approach 150 to pay for his decline years.

    I'm sure the Sox hoped a 31 year old left fielder would be worth 4 years 80 (or 5/100) when they signed Hanley because he was a better hitter than Upton at that point of his career. I don't see Upton getting 45, much less 70 more than that even adjusting for inflation.
     
    #204 grimshaw, Nov 1, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2017
  5. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    A 6 year deal on either puts them both getting paid through their age 35 seasons, which in FA reality terms isn't *too* crazy.

    I'd honestly project Upton to wait out the Martinez frenzy, and look to cash in after Martinez likely sets the new per/year bar in FA on elite 30yo types. 5/$125m would be my initial guess, but with the possibility of more if the game's recent offensive trend leads to an uptick for the higher tier guys on the market.

    6/$162m would be my absolute floor guess on Martinez though, with 6/$180 and a vesting option for a 7th year being the more likely signing point in what's going to be a competitive market that he'll essentially be ruling over this winter. Which without a doubt is going to include an early opt out (or Bryce Harper breaking the market protection) regardless what that final total ends up being.
     
    #205 MikeM, Nov 1, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2017
  6. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Just caught that edit. Cespedes didn't have the same reassuring track record of offense behind him that JD Martinez does, and posted a walk year line of 280/.354/.530/ 31HR compared to Martinez's .302/.366/.690/ 45HR. There is more then a "somewhat better on offense" factor in play there. If there wasn't you'd have probably seen a lot more people here then you did last fall speculating him as a potential replacement for Ortiz.

    Probably makes for a better Upton comp though imo.
     
  7. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I brought up the Cespedes comp in the Big Bats thread and I have to agree with MikeM. There will be a number of teams bidding for Martinez' services. My guess was 6/$150 but I could see more if there's a bidding war. Upton opting out may impact Martinez a little, but there will still be enough teams looking for power that it shouldn't be a big effect.
     
  8. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    Just doing a quick and dirty 3-2-1 fWAR projection for J.D. Martinez (3.8, 1.8, and 5.0) you come up with 3.33. He's a huge bat, but is terrible in the field, should be a DH soon if not next year, and has played 239 games the last two years. I think most teams want him for four years, but entering his age 30 season and it being a free market, he'll get 5. So, let's try to see what is projected worth would be using the 3.3 fWAR projection, which like I said is just a quick and dirty method.

    In an article from June, they had the $/WAR at 8.5, %5 inflation for future years, and -0.5 WAR/year for a player from age's 31-37, 31-34 would cover the last 5 years of Martinez's 5 year deal.

    Code:
    WAR    $/war   Contract
    3.3    8.9     29.37
    2.8    9.4     26.32
    2.3   10.3     23.69
    1.8   10.6     19.08
    1.3   10.9     14.17
    
    5 years/112.63
    
    So of course you have to factor in that teams will be bidding from his services, but I think they'll be starting roughly from a $110-115 number, so I guess I won't be shocked if it's more than $125 million. But $180 is never happening for a player that can't play premium defense or stay on the field, not anymore.
     
  9. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Something to keep in mind with projecting decline through WAR is that the 0.5 per year estimate is based on a sample of players that includes people staying at defensive positions where some of that decline is coming from. For a guy like Martinez, who has been getting negative value from his time in the field for the last 6 years, a move to DH may not mean much of a loss in the defensive adjustment in the first place, and would also mean that any decline in his WAR output would have to come mostly from the bat. So it may not be as rapid a decline as the usual 0.5 per year estimate.

    Now, by virtue of being a DH, his WAR ceiling is going to be lower, of course. Papi usually lived in the 2.5-3.5 range. But he also didn't see his WAR decline as he got older, partly because he didn't have a defensive component being impacted by a loss of range as his legs grew more and more hobbled.
     
  10. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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  11. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    True, but the positional adjustment on FG is -7.5 for a LF and -17.5 for a DH.
     
  12. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  13. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I feel I'm already factoring in any stay on the field value suppression there by keeping Martinez's floor as low as I put it, otherwise he'd probably end up closer to slam dunking David Price money imo. Being that much better then the guys before him and all, which is a blank I noticed you didn't bother filling in btw. He'll also hardly be the first big ticket free agent bat to get paid without being able to play premium defense.

    Look, it's not that I disagree with the proceed with caution narrative that you and everybody else are seemingly choosing to write in there. It's just that and like every other time before it, those always low balled "rules" and more ideal spending guidelines pre-FA aren't going to apply to a big ticket guy as good as Martinez once the actual bidding starts, regardless how good of a fit he'd otherwise be for this Red Sox team. That's just how high tier FA works, and why it's almost always a good idea to steer away from it whenever possible. You don't go in planning on rhyme and reason winning the day, or expecting a guy who just OPS'd higher then anybody not named Mike Trout in the new Offensive Era to fall through the cracks.

    He didn't just hire Boras to take the conservative deal this winter either.
     
  14. BJBossman

    BJBossman lurker

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    If the Indians don't pick up Brantley's option...that's an opportunity.

    But it's a risky one.
     
  15. BJBossman

    BJBossman lurker

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    When you factor in years and dollars, I'll take Santana. He can replace Moreland and gives you more platoon advantages as a switch hitter.
     
  16. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Right, but if we take his last three years of UZR and average them out on a per year basis, he's worth -10.7 as an OF. So that washes.

    Edit: One of those 7.7's wasn't a negative. It's actually -5.73 as an OF. Though most of that was in right field. He'd likely be better if he was a left fielder, though the wall might present a challenge. Regardless, his lack of defensive skill would chew into the positional adjustment some.
     
    #216 Snodgrass'Muff, Nov 1, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2017
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    How much value does Elvis Andrus have?
     
  18. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    He might get what he's already getting paid on an open market, but I'm not sure anybody would be giving up a notable extra for the right to do that.

    That said, and similar to my upcoming feelings on Xander, I wouldn't personally like us to be the one paying that kind of premium on him though.
     
  19. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    Not only is Boras going to try to get his contract to be thru the roof, but doesn't he usually draw negotiations out forever? Seems the opposite of what DD likes to do which is get a target in the crosshairs and strike quick.

    Dammit.
     
  20. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Terrible news this morning on Martinez hiring Boras. The 2 of them together is a perfect storm of overpay waiting to happen if we do go in on JD imo.

    Not too long ago had I predicted that we'd essentially stop caring about the LT and start outspending the Yankees by $50m in payroll this board would of exploded in disgust for even implying the possibility. Yet here we are, and waiting to see if it's actually about to happen.
     
  21. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    On the other hand, Justin Upton deciding to forgo the open market and signing that rather team friendly (the full no trade might came back to haunt them there though) 5/$106 extension probably didn't just help Boras' cause much.

    So there is that, unless you were viewing Upton as a potential fall back option for us I guess.
     
  22. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    So the Hanley comparison wasn't all that far off. He's actually getting less per year, but it's guaranteed.
    There is no way Martinez approaches 180 now.
     
  23. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Without Upton actually hitting the open market we can't make really make an accurate comp there though, since one can easily argue that he just left money on the table to stay in LA and secure that full NTC.

    Outside people trying to directly link JD and Upton's market value with a lot of have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too speculation (people clearly want one value over the other, but don't like the general idea of having to pay out FA's usual price tag for that premium preference), if anything already taking one potential bidder off the table hurts JD's ceiling value more then his floor imo.
     
    #223 MikeM, Nov 2, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2017
  24. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah... sorry. I read about him on another site a few days before posting that and during the interim the Dominican Winter League morphed into the Arizona Fall League.
     
  25. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Do we still love the idea of Darvish? It's best not to overreact to two brief appearances but he's 30 and just finished falling on his face in the World Series. We have enough regular season heroes who haven't delivered in October. Someone (probably LA but now maybe not) will grossly overpay for what could be a precipitous decline. Admittedly though, he didn't decline in the regular season, or not very much anyway.
     
  26. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I think the bolded analysis is smart.

    We'd been imagining a very broad range of possible contract values for Martinez, from $100m-ish at the low end, to $200m-ish at the high end. I think Upton's deal has suggested that Martinez will price out in the bottom half of that range. I had picked 6/$160 in the Big Bats thread, but I now think that's considerably too high, and we're looking more in the 120-130 range.

    If — huuuuuge if — I am right about that, I think we should be interested.
     
  27. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    If the rumors about Darvish being easily wound up/skittish are true, this is the last place we'd want him. Past that, there's no reason for the team to be eating that financial burden for a starter as they're currently constructed.

    You strain your financial flexibility to address the team's biggest need that could potentially put you over the top. Darvish isn't that guy.
     
  28. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    MLBTR is predicting the Red Sox FA haul:
    JD Martinez 6/150
    Logan Morrison 3/36
    Bryan Shaw 3/21

    But they also have Nunez going to Toronto for 2/14, and make no mention of Boston's need at 2nd. That seems like it undervalues him, right?
     
  29. Tyrone Biggums

    Tyrone Biggums nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion SoSH Member

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    Want no part of Shaw or LoMo. LoMo screams one year wonder.
     
  30. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I wouldn't mind Morrison but 3 years is too long.
     
  31. bg1025

    bg1025 lurker

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  32. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  33. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    So does Hosmer.

    Or, every other year wonder?
     
  34. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Maybe but 3/36 wouldn't be awful.
     
  35. BJBossman

    BJBossman lurker

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    Not awful. But i'd rather sit out the 1B market and grab a bargain like teams did last year.

    2 year deal is idea in this case.

    Fits the team's timeline and gives Devers 2 years to prove he's not a 1B masquerading at 3B.
     
  36. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    1,730
    Who would you (SoSH) rather have:

    Cabrera, acquired for a low-level prospect, and subsidized by Detroit, so the Sox owe him $18 million a year through 2023 (instead of $32 million a year)?

    Morrison, signed for 3/36?

    Freeman, for whom you will have traded Benintendi, and who is under contract through 2021 at $21.5m per year on average?

    Moreland on another 1-year deal similar to this year?

    JD Martinez for 6/150, with Hanley moving back to 1b?

    Hosmer signed for 8/180?

    Matt Adams at 1b (under control through 2018), acquired for a top 10 prospect not named Chavis or Groome?
     
  37. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    I'm fine bringing back Moreland. He managed 2 WAR even with the godawful streak after he broke his toe.

    Can Martinez learn 1B? Hanley has enough trouble staying healthy as is. I'd be more excited about him if that's a possibility.

    Morrison I'm okay with.

    Cabrera, Freeman, Hosmer, Adams: varying degrees of ABSOLUTELY HELL NO.
     
  38. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

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    Given that choice, with only one option: JD Martinez. But a Martinez+Hosmer duo would be attractive. Freeman would be excellent, but not at a cost of Ben10di.
     
  39. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

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    I don't find this the most horrible of packages, though I prefer Hosmer to Morrison.
     
  40. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Why not Adams?

    Not a good defender, but a solid power bat.

    339 ab, 22 2b, 20 hr, .274/.319/.522/.841, 117 ops+

    You give him 550 ab, and his numbers project to 36 2b, 32 hr, 105 rbi. That would be a significant power upgrade at 1b. And he's inexpensive.

    I get that he's not the ideal option, but "ABSOLUTELY HELL NO"?
     
  41. czar

    czar fanboy SoSH Member

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    Well, I think everyone prefers Hosmer to LoMo but it really comes to do "if you are going to blow your wad on a slugger this offseason, pick one of Martinez, Hosmer, Cabrera, etc." I suppose the Sox could drop $60m AAV on a couple of them but then I'd probably kiss extending some of the young core goodbye.

    I do agree with the chatter upthread about pursuing Carlos Santana as an intermediate between Lomo and Hosmer. Santana is a few years older, but on a 3-4 year deal seems like to give you about 75% Hosmer's value for 30% the cost. Use that $$$ to extend guys like Mookie and X.
     
  42. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Did you maybe mean Matt Carpenter instead of Matt Adams? I doubt the latter would cost a top-ten prospect; St Louis let him go for a lotto ticket midseason (and he'd already been DFA'd at that point, if I'm remembering right).
     
  43. bohous

    bohous Member SoSH Member

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    I'm on board with this. I know this is the "risky acquisitions" thread but Santana seems like the safe bet and a good fit. The guy is consistent and you can probably bank on his career averages over the course of a 3 year deal.
     
  44. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    I think the allure of Hosmer is his tremendous oppo ability would play well in Fenway. I have a feeling DD is going to get Martinez and Hosmer and get the best deal he can on Hanley and dump him. The Boras news does really complicate things though. Can’t bank your winter on Martinez then miss out in late January.
     
  45. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    1,730
    No, I mean Matt Adams, on the Braves. Solid hitter, not a very good defender. Even better if the cost is virtually nothing.
     
  46. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    1. You can't give him 550 AB, you have to platoon him and his 46 WRC+ vs lefties
    2. Have to trade assets to get him
    3. He made 2.8 million last year and now he's arb3, so it's not like he even represents a major savings over Moreland
    4. Chop out the quarter season Moreland spent in his broken toe fugue state and his line looks decidedly better than Adams'
    5. What do RBIs have to do with anything?

    So maybe he's on the lighter end of the hell no spectrum, but still, why would you consider giving up anything for him?
     
  47. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    3,571
    Not that I'm advocating this idea, I'm not, I don't like it, but he'd make a pretty decent platoon partner with Hanley, which would keep the latter's ABs down...
     
  48. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

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    I haven't watched Martinez intently in the field to offer an opinion there. But with Cespedes is a trainwreck defensively aside from the arm.
     
  49. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    It is tough to justify platooning Hanley, presuming he is healthy. His career OPS R/L split is .838/.897. Last year he had a reverse split: .769 OPS vs RHP and .679 OPS vs LHP.

    Now if they acquire a player or two in order to have a rotation set up between 1B, DH, and some other position (say 2B with Pedroia's situation) where Hanley can be sat down every 3rd or 4th game for the purposes of resting/maintaining his shoulder (and others involved get rest or get to avoid certain pitchers), it can probably be sold to him (and the others involved) fairly easily. Somebody like a Moreland or Adams in combination with someone like Nunez (or some other swiss army type who can move around the diamond as needed)...that could work. But I can't see bringing in a LHH (be it Adams or whoever) with the express purpose of sitting Hanley down against even half the RHP the team faces.
     
  50. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    If Sox looking to go high -

    SIgn JD Mart. Hopefully 5 years -- not 6.
    Trade for Bour. In the trade for Bour take on additional salary from the Marlins. The salary take-on would be Tazawa. Would look into higher salary if pressed.

    A tremendous lineup vs rh pitching until Pedroia comes back of
    1- Beni, 2- Betts, 3-Bour, 4-JDMart, 5- Devers, 6-Xander, 7- Vaz, 8- JBJ or Holt, 9- JBJ or Holt.
     

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