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Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

    Messages:
    100
    The way Hanley has hit with the Red Sox - if the Sox were to invest $230m, I can't see why the Sox would justify giving Hanley more at bats to start the season other than platoon. See how he hits. IMO Hanley needs to prove himself if the team is going at $230m. He shouldn't be "rewarded" with significant playing time to start the season. Nor should he be "counted on" to perform well. See what he can do 1st as a platoon.

    Hanley has hit like a platoon player in 2016 and 2017 for the Red Sox. If the team is investing so much, to start the season he needs to be treated like the platoon player he has performed to be the past 2 years.
     
  2. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,294
    SoxEast: So JD Mart is your DH and Hanley doesn't play vs. RH pitchers? If Hanley hits vs. southpaws, JDM sits down?
     
  3. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,366
    You do understand what a platoon is, right? Platoons are generally deployed when you have two guys who hit from opposite sides of the plate split time based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. By that definition, as I posted, Hanley does not fit the profile of someone who needs to be platooned. If he's healthy, he hits both lefties and righties about the same. If he's not healthy, he is struggling regardless of the pitcher's throwing hand.

    But okay, just for kicks, let's say they platoon him to start the year. How would they structure that "platoon"? How is his playing time determined? Does he sit against lefties (against whom he struggled in 2017 but crushed in 2016) or against righties or just a random mix? Is Cora just playing hunches on when he thinks Ramirez is best suited to play or is there some sort of objective criteria to guide decision-making?
     
  4. Drek717

    Drek717 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,498
    My Crazy Scenario:

    Giancarlo Stanton and Junichi Tazawa for prospects, Taz reduces the acquisition cost of Stanton to where it won't require one of the premium young ML players.

    Cabrera for low level prospects and Hanley Ramirez, Detroit balances out the salary difference in 2018 and then subsidizes Cabrera to the $18-$20M range for the remainder of his guaranteed years.

    JBJ to Chicago for Kyle Schwarber, Aramis Ademan, and a low minors lottery ticket type pitcher.

    Re-sign Nunez on a deal comparable to Chris Young, 2 years $14M or so.

    Defensive positions are:
    C - Vaz/Sandy
    1B - Cabrera with Schwarber learning the position behind him.
    2B - Pedroia, Nunez until he's back form his surgery.
    3B - Devers
    SS - Bogaerts
    LF - Stanton
    CF - Benintendi
    RF - Betts

    Lineup would be:
    Betts
    Benintendi
    Stanton
    Devers
    Cabrera
    Schwarber
    Bogaerts
    Pedey/Nunez
    Vaz/Sandy

    Bench:
    Other C
    Lin/Marrero until Pedey is back, then Nunez
    Bat first MI, needs to be better than Holt or keep Holt
    1B/corner IF/OF type, sacrifice defensive versatility for offense and 1B specific defense if needed

    Pitching would be:
    1 - Sale
    2 - Pomeranz
    3 - Price
    4 - Porcello
    5 - Wright/EdRo/Johnson. Look to see if someone with some potential will take a split deal with a June 1st non-25 man opt out to build their value.

    Bullpen:
    Kimbrel
    Kelly
    Thornburg
    Smith
    Tazawa
    Last two open to competition between Workman/Hembree/Barnes/etc.
     
  5. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    53,494
    Even if Detroit agreed to "subsidize" Cabrera to 20M a year, you're still paying him 140M -- including 20M for a 42-year-old Cabrera

    And then you have the Stanton and Price contracts on top of that.

    You're basically assuring being stuck with all of them in their later years, while saying goodbye eventually to Betts and Benintendi

    I think your post is in the proper thread
     
  6. pdub

    pdub Member SoSH Member

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    441
    Yeah, like, that deal is too crazy. Stanton at max dollars, older Cabrera at max dollars, Price at max dollars, but what else? That trade would probably kill the team for a few seasons. No offense meant at all, its just too bonkers even for this thread.
     
  7. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

    Messages:
    141
    Wow! That idea even surprised me and I'm most certainly one of the "Crazy" ones.

    I did like the Nunez part of the idea.

    I find I can't agree with this idea "Giancarlo Stanton and Junichi Tazawa for prospects, Taz reduces the acquisition cost of Stanton to where it won't require one of the premium young ML players." as Jeter is smarter than that. He'll want at least ML starter and relief arm, then he'll look at prospects.
     
  8. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    2,588
    You know who one of the few hitters who made more than Hanley and hit worse than him this year was? Miguel Cabrera.

    I mean he's Miguel Cabrera and that's probably not happening again for a few seasons - but injuries and age are going to force a steady decline. There is just no reason to take on such a risky contract, subsidized or not. He could be Pujols redux for the last 4 years.
     
  9. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    2,588
    I think you're going by what you saw at Fenway. I'm not seeing any numbers that support that on his advanced fielding metric page. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13110&position=OF#fielding

    Looks to me like he rates above average in LF, and was a bit out of place in CF.
     
  10. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,295
    In all fairness here, a majority of the upgrade speculation we've seen to this point has been so keyed in on min/maxing 2018's roster that it either can't or just plain refuses to see the surrounding sum reality that we are essentially left rooting for our team to become the new Dodgers in the process (which is exactly where those MLBTR site projections people keep referencing elsewhere have us ending up btw).

    So my interpretation of what he's trying to suggest there, and to borrow a quote from GoT - You are the Dodgers. Be the Dodgers.

    Which means paying extra if you can for a bat like Duda, who upgrades the GFIN chances on paper, and then paying Hanley his $20m out as the RH platoon piece to that who spends more time then not sitting on the bench. Since we don't want his option to vest, can't fully trust him in an extreme GFIN scenario after last year, and as the Dodgers you more or less stopped caring about how that looks from an efficiency POV anyway.
     
  11. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,423
    If we're going to take on huge dollar contracts, let's try to make those contracts that could be dealt in a rebuild at the 2019 trade deadline if necessary.

    If we sign JD Martinez on a 6/$140 deal, he will be 32 in 2019, and owed maybe 4/$100. That can probably be traded, maybe for a nice prospect.

    If we acquire a subsidized Miguel Cabrera, he'll be 36 in 2019, and still owed something like 6/$110 (depending on how much the Tigers have picked up). That probably can't be traded at all.

    I argued in the other thread that I think that we will need to rebuild this team sometime soonish no matter what. We have a lot of starting pitching on the MLB roster, but not much at all on the farm. Unless ALL of the A ball pitching pans out, this roster will likely need a near-total overhaul sometime around 2019-20. That's basically a corollary of the moves that Dombrowski was brought in to make: he shipped out a ton of early 2020s value for a ton of 2017-2018 value. If we win a title, that's a great move. If we don't... well, that's a philosophical question.

    I think this means we are already Going For It Now, and thus that we should sign the best FA bat available to put us up with the pennant contenders. No sense starting to hold back after you've traded Moncada, Espinoza and Kopech. But what we should refrain from doing is taking on contracts that would impede that rebuild when it has to happen.
     
  12. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

    Messages:
    1,054
    Would this rebuild be founded on the prospects we get for Betts, JBJ and Xander after next season? If we are going to "overhaul the roster" in 2019-2020, that is not that far away. So see what we can get for one year of Sale and Xander, and two of JBJ and Betts? Or keep Mookie and pair him with Benintendi and Devers as the core of the 2020-2023 team?

    I really hope Price has an amazing year and opts out next offseason. He can be a great pitcher, but I dont want to pay him $32 mil through 2022.
     
  13. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    8,366
    I'm having a very difficult time envisioning the Boston Red Sox dealing off arb-2 and arb-3 guys for prospects next winter. It just doesn't make sense for them to effectively punt 2019 by turning productive players into prospects. Can they extend all of Betts, JBJ, and Bogaerts before free agency? Probably not, but they're certainly not going to deal them all off next winter or even the winter after that. Especially if the team has a successful 2018 season (defined as equal or better than their 2016-2017 seasons).

    Now if they're floundering near the trade deadline in 2019, that's a different story. Then I can see them trading off anyone they don't want to or don't think they can extend for prospects. Preferably prospects that can have an impact on 2020. But they're not busting up this team before then.
     
  14. mlthomaas

    mlthomaas lurker

    Messages:
    8
    Should the Sox consider signing a starting pitcher to replace Pomeranz, who can be used as trade bait? I wonder if a JBJ and Pomeranz for Schwarber and Baez swap makes any sense for the Cubs.
     
  15. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    4,132
    Another injury prone JD? Martinez has only played 130+ games once. Can't argue with the 4 year OPS+ of 149 though. I prefer him to Hosmer, who seems to alternate good hitting years with meh ones, plus his defensive stats don't support his reputation -- he has never has a positive dWAR.
     
  16. Drek717

    Drek717 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,498
    I would argue that intellect doesn't enter the equation. Most recent reporting has Miami looking to trade Stanton, Dee Gordon, and Martin Prado to get the payroll relief they've rather publicly committed to pursuing while still retaining their young arb. eligible talent in Yelich, Ozuna, etc.. That is a fantasy on their part. No one is taking Martin Prado without a heavy subsidy, negating the savings in trading him. The return without subsidy on Gordon is dubious, he's owed eight figures a year for another three seasons and guys like Nunez are around as free agents.

    If the goal is to get below $90M they'll have to take a net negative exchange on talent. Dumping $7M owed to Tazawa along with Stanton is one way to get there. A starter and relief arm? Sure. Brian Johnson is a ML starter and Matt Barnes is an ML relief arm. But you could potentially avoid moving Benintendi or Devers in such an exchange.

    Sure, I'm personally a proponent of using the open roster spots to try finding another David Ortiz/JD Martinez/Jose Bautista type with about three bites at the apple and if we don't find it blowing it up at the deadline (trading Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, probably JBJ, maybe Price or Bogaerts if the value is there) for a prospect haul that lets us effect a rapid reload still within the control years of Benintendi and Devers, maybe just on the edge with Betts.

    But if we're going crazy a $20M per year hook for Cabrera isn't too bad given his history as a hitter, the fact that he'd be able to play DH through the tail end of his career, and how much $20M is really going to be in six years. Salaries aren't trending down, neither is the luxury tax. His contract will be bad, but roughly half of his contract or a little more? Not so bad.

    Basically adds up to dumping the money freed up by losing Kimbrel and letting Pomeranz walk into retaining Sale, then after 2019 dumping the money freed up by losing Porcello and most of Sandoval's remaining obligation into locking up Betts and/or Benintendi.

    Stanton + Cabrera is likely comparable to what it'd take to pay for JD Martinez + Hosmer. I wouldn't do either if I was in charge, but I'd bet on the former outhitting the later for the next half decade.
     
  17. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,423
    ...And if you look back, you'll see that that's exactly what I said.

    Here's how I see this going:

    2018 is our year. We have a positively astonishing pitching staff, with Sale, Price, and Pomeranz heading up a rotation that goes 9 or 10 deep, and a deep bullpen anchored by Kimbrel and Carson Smith. If Rodriguez steps forward and/or Porcello bounces back, it could really be something. Wright, Velazquez, Elias and Johnson are impressive depth SP.

    After 2018, Sale and Pomeranz are FA, and Price can opt out. If Price opts out, that gives us about $50m to replace the top three spots in the rotation. If Price doesn't, it gives us about $20m to replace the top two — and it suggests that Price isn't looking like a front-of-the-rotation horse.

    That just isn't all that much money for good starting pitching in the FA market, and we've already traded the farm system for pitching.

    I don't think we can do it, unless an awful lot of things go right. If Rodriguez takes a step forward, that would help immeasurably; we could try to retain Sale or sign Kershaw with Price's money. If Porcello bounces back, his contract for 2019 becomes huge for us, but he'd be hard to trust as a key cog in 2019 given his up and down career. If Groome or one of the other A ball pitchers has a huge breakout 2018, that would help a lot, but even the most optimistic timeline doesn't have the cavalry arriving in time.

    I just don't see where the pitching is coming from for our 2019 roster to have more than a mediocre rotation.

    If Price opts out: Sale (extended on a 7/$250m deal), Rodriguez, Porcello, Velazquez, Wright
    If Price doesn't: Price (Non-opt-out edition), Rodriguez, mid-market FA (Garrett Richards?), Porcello, Velazquez

    That looks to me like a rotation without a ton of room for error, which is why I am imagining a likely rebuild either midseason 2019 or in 2020.
     
  18. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    25,189
    Sale won't be a FA until after the 2019 season
     
  19. timlinin8th

    timlinin8th Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,054
    Tazawa, Gordon, and Stanton to the Sox in some kind of crazy reverse-Punto trade. Get it done DD.
     
  20. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,423
    Huh. That's not what the Cots spreadsheet suggested. If that's true, that changes things quite a bit.

    Apologies for the hijack, then.
     
  21. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    25,189
    Team option

    Chris Sale lhp
    5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options
    • 5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options
      • signed extension with Chicago White Sox 3/7/13
      • replaced 1 year/$0.6M deal signed 2/22/13
      • 13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
      • 2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18 (met)
     
  22. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

    Messages:
    100
    I thought Chris Sale's contract has the Red Sox with a team option in 2019? And using the "If" - IF the Rd Sox sign JD Mart and just one other 1 DH or 1B, there is a good chance that Hanley will be gone in 2019 thus that money could be used to sign Pomeranz.

    As a result 2019 with just adding JD Mart and other DH or 1B (allows Hanley not to vest), -- even IF Price opts out , the staff would be strong in 2019.
     
  23. bringbackburks

    bringbackburks lurker

    Messages:
    33
    In the spirit of the thread title here is my crazy scenario. JBJ to SEA for Nelson Cruz. Pomeranz to STL for Jose Martinez. Sign JD Martinez. This would probably keep payroll under 227. It would also result in a lineup of

    Betts RF
    Benintendi CF
    JD Martinez LF
    Cruz DH
    Hanley 1B
    Devers 3B
    Bogaerts SS
    Vasquez C
    Holt/Pedroia/Marrero

    I don't love trading Bradley. But I think the window to win is only the next year or two and I think the bat that Cruz would bring is worth it. Cruz is also in the last year of his deal so there is no long-term commitment. Martinez also becomes your fourth outfielder and your backup first baseman. And if Cruz and Hanley leave after next year he steps in at first and JD moves to DH. Losing pomeranz for this year would hurt, but I don't think they're going to resign him and a rotation of Sale, Price, Porcello, Erod and Fister/Wright/Johnson is still decent.
     
  24. keninten

    keninten lurker

    Messages:
    404
    Would love to just do Pomeranz for Josh Martinez. Cruz for JBJ would be OK. Can`t see why we would want another long ass contract. We need to start getting out from so many(Price, Hanley, Porcello, Panda). Before these we were lucky to get out from under Beckett(trade), AGon(trade), Crawford. Add in Lackey, Lugo, DiceK, Castillo, Renteria and it makes me wonder why the Sox ownership would keep paying out the ass for free agents with contracts for at least 4 years. JD Drew is about the only free agent signing we`ve hit on and I`ll bet half this board would not agree with me on him. So I figure we hit 1 and messed up on 10. Let`s Do It Again
     
  25. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,983
    I doubt the Angels would do it depending on how much weight they put into defensive metrics, but trade Porcello for Simmons. Ignore 2014 and slide Xander to 3rd while moving Devers to 1b. Frees up $9 mil in salary in the process.

    It's too bad Price doesn't have much of a market because moving him for Elvis Andrus would make some sense too and free up $15 million to make a run at JD. That scenario would have Ramirez on the bench unless you traded X.

    I also wonder what guys like Rozier, Donaldson and McCutchen would fetch in a trade for 1 year of service.

    This is the "crazy ideas" thread.
     
  26. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

    Messages:
    967
    Porcello and what? 2 years of a 3-4 starter doesn't get you 3 years of the world's best defensive shortstop who can apparently hit now too.
     
  27. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,983
    You are most likely right as he put up a 7.1 WAR this year, but unlike other years, 3.9 was with the bat. Up until this season though, his value was all in the glove. I'm guessing teams have differing opinions on whether Simmons is worth 4 wins a year with his glove. Plus Porcello is coming off a mediocre year.
     
  28. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,960
    I'd really like toe keep Pom. He was our second best pitcher last year. No need to assume Price rights the ship when Pom already has.
     
  29. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    316
    Here's my organizational plan. It's predicated on the following:

    1. Stanton won't come here (or Jeter won’t trade him here) and we also miss out on JDM, maybe by a Yankee team wanting an obvious replacement for Matt Holliday with considerable opposite field power.
    2. We need six viable starters as a safeguard against Price going down, which means we need to acquire the sixth via trade. Steven Wright doesn't count.
    3. We need to sell high in a couple cases to restock the farm.
    4. This overhauls half the team and is obviously unrealistic, but there are discrete moves and targets in here that I like (Duffy, Fulmer, Belt, selling high on Pom).

    Trade Porcello and Barnes to the Cubs for Kyle Schwarber and Tommy La Stella
    The Cubs' staff is losing a lot of innings, and two years of Porcello (at 2/$42) gives Alzolay and De La Cruz more prep even if they also sign Darvish or reunite Cobb with Hickey. Barnes is a good reliever, but Farrell lost trust in him and I think most of us did too. He's a former Theo draftee, and four years of him is a good get a for a pen that has Carl Edwards Jr. and Strop and basically no one else. The LHH La Stella's not as good as his .368 OBA last year with the Cubs would indicate, but he's a more-than-capable backup with good OBP and contact skills. He and Marco could be a solid and cheap Pedroia replacement that could spell Devers late in games once Pedey's healthy. Schwarber's likely done in Chicago. He's interesting, but too risky for us...

    Trade Schwarber, Chavis, Brian Johnson, and Marrero to Kansas City for Danny Duffy (4/$60m), Joakim Soria (1/$9 with a $10m option for 2019), Josh Staumont and Jason Hammel (1/$9M)
    KC's in a full rebuild and could be a prime spot for Schwarber. Duffy's entering his age-29 season and has possible 1A upside for four years. Trading for Soria could help us move Kimbrel, if that's something we want to do. Scouts say 23-year-old right-handed SP prospect Josh Staumont and his huge fastball (and command issues) could be dominant in the pen. Hammel is not good, but he's a solid #6 starter that could eke out a 2-win, 2017-Porcello-type year, and with our dominant bullpen (and followed in the rotation by Sale), I like him as a 4-5 inning guy — he's very bad third time through the order. This pushes Steven Wright to a #7. Johnson and Marrero are out of options. They're not prizes, but it's possible the former can be a decent #4-5 for them, and they might view the latter as an improvement on Cheslor Cuthbert. [​IMG]

    Trade Pomeranz and Hembree to St. Louis for OF Randal Grichuk and minor league SS Delvin Perez
    The Cards have a lot of SP prospects about to graduate (Weaver, Flaherty, Reyes), but they're likely iffy about relying on them all being healthy and effective, especially with Wainwright's question marks. They lose Lance Lynn to FA, and Pom could slide in with Martinez/Wainwright/Wacha as a solid base. Grichuk's not a huge get, but he's about to get squeezed out of an outfield that already includes Dexter Fowler, and saw breakouts in 2017 by Jose Martinez and Tommy Pham. They're in on Stanton, have Bader and Sierra nearly ready, and Stephen Piscotty under contract through 2022. They’re moving him, and he seems made for Fenway hitter. He strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much, but his hard hit rate (41%) is near-elite. His 51.3% pull rate is Millar-level extreme, which suggests he might be helped by the Monster. The real prize here could be 18-year-old Delvin Perez, a low-minors top SS prospect that could replace Bogaerts in a few years, that the Cards mayyy be alright moving with the breakout of Paul DeJong.

    Trade Bradley to the Giants for Brandon Belt and RHP Tyler Beede
    I'm a huge Bradley fan so I don't love this, but Belt is excellent and a way better get than Morrison, Alonso, or Duda. His patient approach may be less valuable in an era where it's no longer as rewarding to get into a team's bullpen, but he's still an excellent regular with quiet 4-5 win upside. The 4/$64 contract isn't cheap, but the collapse rate seems really low. His .365 OBA over 2016-17 is 7th among MLB first basemen (above Miggy, Abreu, Hosmer, Santana, and Hanley), he's an even more pronounced opposite field hitter than Moreland, and plays excellent defense. The Giants have big slugger type Chris Shaw ready.

    Trade Sam Travis and Craig Kimbrel to the Rockies for LHP Mike Dunn and RHP Riley Pint and OF Raimel Tapia
    2018 is the Rockies' last year with Blackmon and LeMahieu (and 2019 the last with Arenado). They lose Neshek, Holland, and McGee from their bullpen and seemed to realize this year how crucial bullpens are. They also lose Mark Reynolds and have no 1B prospects, while Ian Desmond is obviously best suited for the OF. Travis works there. Meanwhile, Mike Dunn had a terrible first year at Coors and a solid one away, holding hitters to a .271 OBA in line with his vintage years. He might be just be bad for that park. Pint has ace upside and a huge fastball, and 23-year-old Raimel Tapia is an entertaining OF who can hit. I don't think they'd give up Brendan Rodgers for anything, but if Kimbrel+ gets him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

    Trade Brock Holt, Roniel Raudes, Austin Maddox, Hanley Ramirez and Sandy Leon to the Tigers for Michael Fulmer, Nick Castellanos, and a subsidized Miguel Cabrera
    Ok! Here are the reasons I'd do this:

    1. Cabrera is not done. His 2017 was bad and he was hurt, but also unlucky. His 91.1 exit velo was still elite, ranked behind Judge, Cruz, Gallo, Sano, Khris Davis, Stanton, Zimmerman, and Yasmany Tomas — and that's it. He should, however, be a full-time DH. (More here: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2...raphs-line-drives-hard-hit-rate-exit-velocity.)
    2. Still, his 6/$184 contract is terrible. Offloading Hanley shaves, in a sense, $20 from that. And Fulmer, who DD acquired in 2015, squares it.
    3. Michael Fulmer is controllable through 2022. He has one of the best fastballs in the game (and the worst curveballs). Five years of Fulmer is roughly $100m of surplus value even if he stays a 3-3.5 win pitcher.
    4. Castellanos is about to break out, but through another lens, he's a disappointing two-win player who just got bumped from his primary position by top prospect Jaimer Candelario. He's also got elite underlying stats and an unreal hard hit ball rate. I have a hunch that his limitations at 3B effed with his confidence, and that a full-time OF Castellanos would go off. (Since Candelario replaced him at 3B on 9/2, Castellanos hit .358/.377/651 in 114 PA, a .426 wOBA). We'd have him through 2019, which is our window.
    5. None of the big ticket 2018-19 FAs fit with our team.
    6. Hanley can re-establish some value as RHH home run power plays better in Comerica. Leon forms a tandem with McCann. Raudes took a step back last year but is still 19. Maddox's 0.52 ERA should not confuse him for someone special. And Holt replaces Austin Romine, who they just lost to Seattle.
    7. DD seems to “win” trades like these where a lot of contract money changes hands — like Fielder/Kinsler and his original Miggy trade.

    Lineup
    1. Betts - CF
    2. Benintendi - LF
    3. Cabrera - DH
    4. Devers - 3B
    5. Castellanos - RF
    6. Belt - 1B
    7. Bogaerts - SS
    8. La Stella/Pedroia - 2B
    9. Vazquez/Swihart - C

    Bench
    Grichuk, La Stella, Swihart, Brentz, Lin/Hernandez
    Staff
    Sale, Price, Fulmer, Duffy, EdRod, Hammel, Wright
    Pen
    Soria, Kelly, Dunn, Smith, Thornburg, Workman, Hernandez, Scott, Wright, Elias
    Farm
    [​IMG]Groome, Pint, Mata, Staumont, Shawaryn, Tapia, Ockimey, Maitan, Perez, Beede, Houck, Flores

    Notes

    1. Four LH starters is weird, but it's okay in the AL East. The Yanks are more vulnerable to lefties (at home slightly; in Fenway considerably) while Judge is, oddly, substantially worse. Toronto's RHH murderers' row is gone. Rays are worse vs. LHP; O's even.
    2. Tell Trey Ball the game is changing and he's converting to an "Andrew Miller-style" reliever role. Pin him to Sale in spring training.
    3. I doubt Pedroia's ready by May, like reports have said. Let him rehab until he's 100%, all year if necessary.
    4. Sign SS Kevin Maitan if MLB strips him from the Braves. Sign RHP David Hernandez for the pen.
    5. This is predicated on us being able to move big contracts like Porcello and Hanley.

    If we pay $20m of Cabrera's salary, that's roughly a $205m team. If we pay it in full, it's $215m. And I think it gets us back in the top 10 farm systems. Even if that Kimbrel trade is too cute, we'd still be well under the heavy luxury tax penalty for 2018.
     
    #279 chawson, Nov 5, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2017
  30. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

    Messages:
    100
    You're taking the word "platoon" too literal imo. We're not being lawyers here. By that I mean - the goal of a platoon shouldn't be "trying to fit the profile." The goal should be to do what's best for the team. Hanley has not produced in an acceptable manner. The positive is he can hit both left and right.

    Assuming I get Bour and JDMart, -Hanley starts off hitting lefties. In 2016 he "over-produced vs his career numbers" vs lefties and in 2017 he "regressed to an extreme, awful level." I expect him to hit toward the mean this upcoming year. We should be able to tell by his contact rate/babip/exit velocity how well he is doing. If he is hitting well vs LH pitching there are opportunities.

    1--- FIrst off, how well is Bour doing? Is he hitting very well vs rh pitching? If he is hitting very well, why would you play more Hanley more unless Hnaley is really hot vs lefties that you have to play him? You have a lefty with power that can defend 1b better in Bour.

    2-- What do you expect from JBJ? In the past 1.5 years his OPS is about .720 I think? He's not a lock for 600 at bats or even 550 if his hitting is extremely weak. . An outfield - especially in Fenway in some games can be RF Betts, CH Beni, LF JD Mart. With JBJ - I believe once he changed his stance/approach, 1 year he lefties better, the next righties better, the next lefties better. Overall he doesn't hit righties that well.

    3-- What about Beni? He had a .622 OPS vs lefties last year. Heck, even Hanley had a higher OPS vs lefties. While the lh hitting Bour had a slightly over .800 OPS vs lefties.

    4-- Further anytime JD Mart or Mookie need a rest and Hankley is hitting he gets more at bats.

    The chance of no injuries, and Beni/JBJ/Bour all hit well on both sides of the plate and that JDMArt and Betts aren't hurt - don't need rest - what a is the chance fo that? Hanley will have his opportnities. The good thing about Hanley is that he is NOT a platoon type of player but imo the SOx should start him as one facing lefties. We do expect a bounce back to norm from that side.

    Where am I going wrong here?
     
  31. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,096
    He's not being pedantic here. Platoon has a specific meaning in the context of baseball and you are doing it and your argument a disservice continuing to use it.

    And the Red Sox aren't keeping Hanley around to just hit against lefties. It's a horrendous use of a roster spot when you are adding a 1B/LF/DH type in Martinez to a full outfield, and a 1B/DH only type in Bour to Hanely who is also a 1B/DH only type.

    This idea is nonsensical as it seems to not give a crap about how the limited 25 roster spots are actually used.
     
    #281 Snodgrass'Muff, Nov 5, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2017
  32. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    316
    I don’t think Bour’s enough better than Moreland, Alonso, Santana, Morrison, or Duda to give up anything of value for.
     
  33. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

    Messages:
    100
    I'm sorry but I don't agree with your narrow view of platoon in this scenario. There is no reason to give Hanley more at bats than those vs lefties at the moment in which the poster was using "career" numbers ALONG WITH as I stated before games that JBJ doesn't play. Beni doesn't play and JDMart and Betts don't play. Hanley plays in these additional games too. Further, The poster using career numbers defining Hanley's .850 OPS numbers are no longer "real." It was completely irrelevant. Hanley is no longer that young player. And are you trying to build a team for it's best chance to win or are you just going to bury your head and close your mind that "a platoon" can only be used when two guys who hit from opposite sides of the plate split time based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher? In other words, "why do you have to fit the profile" if the main idea is just to make your team better? Where am I going wrong that you MUST fit "the profile?"

    Secondly, I defined other points that Hanley gets his at bats. But he has to be performing. Where am I going wrong that a player like Hanley who HAS BEEN BAD - deserves more than platoon at bats? IMO it is nonsense to bury your head in the sand as to what Hanley has produced. Are you trying to say past performance shouldn't count? Otherwise why would you play him more than a platoon if he is going to hit like he has in 2015 and 2017?

    Where am I going wrong that just because a player is making $22.75m but is hitting lousy that he must play? You're acting as if Hanley's money is some sort of bargain. It hasn't been. Playing him while he performs as poorly as he has - how does that help the team?

    A further point. Many here lament over next year losing a guy like Pomeranz and over the 2020 season we may be in rebuild mode. Yet in this instance we have a guy like Hanley who hasn't performed. So the idea is supposedly to keep playing the aging Hanley even though there is a good chance he isn't going to perform because because too much value is being wasted of current roster spot dh/1b? You realize getting a better 1b and DH and LF that gives your team at least a better chance to win this year and in the future, right? How does that not make sense? Overall Hanley hasn't produced, has he? SO the answer si to give him more at bats so he can also hurt us in 2019?

    And you speak of "how 25 man rosters are used?" You mean Joe Madden conventionally uses a 25 man roster? You have an opportunity to use JD Mart as in LF and a DH. You have an opportunity to use Bour as a 1B. Don't bury your head in the sand that you can't use them that way in order to give the Red Sox greater chances to win. Or how Tito uses his closer etc. Rather than saying "you can't do it because it is not conventional" can you explain why the idea gave doesn't make the Red Sox better?" BTW, I did offer Hanley more at bats as you replace JBJ in some games. And Beni in some games and JD Mart and Betts need rest in some games. It's not ONLY lh batting. if he produces - more than likely with the lineup we have and the pitching we have- wouldn't it obviously mean we are probably winning A LOT OF GAMES? Because he would be one of the biggest questions going into the season, right?

    There is a self-fulfilling prophecy of "we're going to lose our starters" in 2019 and beyond. That happens if you do nothing now to address it - well - ofc you are going to lose them. So the answer is just to sit back and do nothing while conversely if you get the two hitters - as an example I've given-- it makes us a better team. Doesn't it? Why wouldn''t it?
     
  34. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,096
    It's not a narrow definition of a platoon. It's THE definition. You don't get to redefine the word because you are too stubborn to admit you are misusing it. And I'm certainly not going to waste my time reading another 500+ words of you repeating yourself for the umpteenth time.
     
  35. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,661
    I assume if he was on our team he'd play at Fenway. Beyond that the amazing throw he made w/Oakland from the left field corner was only the result of a poor read. I'm not saying he's Hanley in Left Field, but optics alone tell me he's not a good outfielder.

    As for what the stats say, I studied defense pretty significantly 12 years ago in college and I'm still not convinced that anyone has really nailed how to properly assess it. Admittedly, I will say that my biggest take away directly contradicts my first paragraph and that was, "defense can't be judged solely by watching".
     
  36. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

    Messages:
    967
    I think you're completely insane, and I 100% appreciate the amount of effort you put into this Rube Goldberg disaster of a trade scheme. Just wanted to assure you it hasn't gone unnoticed in the ensuing dumb dictionary battle, and that I thoroughly enjoyed reading every bit of it. Shine on you crazy diamond.
     
  37. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,588
    Ya, but you said he was a train wreck aside from his arm. And if you weren't watching him play everyday in NY, nor trust the metrics which are far better than they were 12 years ago, then I'm not sure how you can reasonably jump to that conclusion. I mean he played CF as well. It's doubtful that a former center fielder would be terrible in left.
     
  38. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,295
    Yasmani Grandal would probably be a decent trade target if the Dodgers end up shopping him to make room for Barnes. Moderate arby estimate ($7.7m), probably won't command a crazy return being a rental, and he does fit the add more homeruns to our lineup bill in one of the few readily available spots we have to add them.

    Combine that with a Jay Bruce (3/$39) and Lucas Duda (1/$6m) signing using MLBTR estimates, then shop Bradley (Leon's $2.1m salary goes somewhere else too obviously):

    - Adds a legitimate 30+ HR bat to the middle of our lineup that we currently don't have.
    - Upgrades 2 additional spots in our lineup and gives us even more of a total HR boost.
    - Gets us in and out of free agency without doing anything stupid or overly risky that we'll probably regret latter.

    The kicker being that the combined total there for 2018 will probably still cost less then one season of JD Martinez will, and with a much lower commitment level attached to it.
     
  39. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

    Messages:
    1,054
    Do we think we should participate in the Machado competition next offseason? We could keep Machado at 3b and move Devrs to 1B. Maybe even move Devers back over after Xander leaves and slide Machado to SS?
     
  40. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,366
    Way too early to think about that, but I lean toward no. If they acquire a 1B this winter on a multi-year deal, they won't really have the flexibility to move Devers across the diamond, even for a year.

    And given this is the crazy idea thread, aren't we expecting that they're going to lay out some big cash for a bat in the next couple months? That would tie up payroll pretty good and make it tough to add whatever it is going to take to sign Machado ($30M+ per?).
     
  41. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

    Messages:
    1,054
    Maybe that is the benefit of going low budget this year? We can bank some of that money we save by going with Lucas Duda/Mitch Moreland etc at 1b for the year in order to splurge next offseason with a Machado acquisition.

    Maybe Price bounces back and has a cy young caliber season and opts out. I would rather spend 30+ on prime Machado than 25+ on an aging JD Martinez
     
  42. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

    Messages:
    316
    Money solves everything and we said this about David Price, but I doubt Manny Machado wants to play for or believes he'd be happy playing for the Red Sox.
     
  43. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,423
    The clock is ticking on our rotation.
     
  44. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    53,494
     
  45. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,295
    Machado wasn't exactly a world beater this year, but still probably gets the same general "let's be overly aggressive about paying for his age" treatment Heyward got on an open market.

    Honestly though and even with a good rebound season, he's just not enough of an elite hitter to be worth the stupid money/commitment he's going to get paid either way. Between the two and going down that road anyway I'd rather just pony up for Harper.
     
  46. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

    Messages:
    1,054
    Machado has been as valuable as Harper has throughout their careers. Harper has been pretty injury prone and just plays ok defense. Machado is, at the very least, an elite defensive 3B who can be a significantly above average hitter as well.

    I agree though that we probably wont go after either of them. Another year may be too late to wait with the ages/contracts of our SP. I kind of want Machado though, even if part of that desire is tied to keeping him from the yankees
     
  47. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    28,828


    When asked if going over CBT was a concern like last year, Dombrowski flatly said "No"
     
  48. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,362
    Machado career away from Camden Yards: .270 / .317 / .437.

    Which is weirdly close to his career marks at Fenway: .273 / .312 / .455

    Normally I'd love his youth, positional versatility, and the possibility that his market value will be depressed by a potentially anomalous down year, but the possibility that he's something of a Camden creation worries me.
     
  49. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,295
    That was obvious, since there was realistically no choice in the matter anyway.

    Asking his thoughts on a second tier hit would have made for a much better question.
     
  50. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,295
    So for fun I just ran a quick and dirty actual payroll estimate on what seems to be the most suggested off-season solution plan of signing Martinez/Nunez/Moreland:

    Basing the current starting point for LT purposes at $206.5m, and then adding a combined $40/m on a per basis covering the above 3 (while then subtracting Bradley's salary in the process) puts us at $240m. Which is only $3m over I guess, but also doesn't account for anything additional we might do at 2B/bullpen or the possibility of your random need for in-season acquisition/s. Assuming that over the second tier # holds though we then enter the much less discussed surcharge factor going in to all this. Which as a first time offender works on a scaling 20%/32%/62.5% model, and comes in at an extra $12m.

    Making the small adjustment back over to real money terms on our multi year contracts and then adding in Castillo's salary puts the final out of pocket total on the year at $264m.

    Does DD have any concerns with that? Again, that's the real question at hand.

    (edited to correct my math on how the scaling works, which actually ends up looking a little better then I initially had it)
     
    #300 MikeM, Nov 6, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2017

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