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Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    With the Pirates (sensibly) exercising McCutchen's option, the Sox could make a play on him. His batted ball profile projects very nicely in Fenway and his bounce back season indicates that he can at least contribute with the bat. The Pirates have a lot of nice pieces but they are not quite ready to compete next year.

    Perhaps a deal could be built around Bradley for McCutchen and Harrison, who could fill the Nunez role on next year's squad. It's a fair bit of salary to take on ($24.5M total) but for what would effectively be a one year commitment (with team options for Harrison).
     
  2. ElcaballitoMVP

    ElcaballitoMVP Member SoSH Member

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    If the Pirates aren't ready to compete next year, why would they be interested in Bradley, particularly when they have Starling Marte already in CF? If they aren't ready to compete next year, they're probably going to be looking for prospects. And then they're throwing Harrison in with him? He's got 2 team options after 2018 at reasonable money, plays multiple positions and was worth over 3 WAR last year alone. I don't see this being anywhere close to getting it done.
     
  3. soup17

    soup17 Member SoSH Member

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    Good article on why Sox should stay away from Hosmer in Bleacher Report - can't figure out why the link is not working. It is also on the CNN sports section titled: "Hot MLB TRADE Target could be $100M Bust"
     
    #303 soup17, Nov 7, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2017
  4. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Since it fills a need — and since DD has acquired them both before — I’m curious what people think about a Miguel Cabrera acquisition.

    His six-year, 192 million contract is an albatross for sure. But would people be interested if he came with five years of a cost-controlled Michael Fulmer?
     
  5. Green Monster

    Green Monster Member SoSH Member

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    PASS...........Cabrera is on steep decline and, pretty sure Fulmer just had elbow surgery that should effectively keep him out of action for the majority of 2018.
     
  6. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    1- The Pirates get two extra seasons of control with Bradley
    2- Harrison is 31; I wouldn't expect a repeat of his performance next season.
    3- Cutch had a bounce back season but he's probably more of a left fielder going forward.
    4- Marte has excelled in left field -- thoughts of shifting him to center are more a result of McCutchen's declining defense

    Suffice to say Bradley is two years younger than Marte and is a more likely bridge to an OF with Frazier and Polanco.
     
  7. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Austin Meadows, their top prospect, can play CF as well. I feel like they would want a player that hasn’t touched the majors over JBJ
     
  8. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    Reading the tea leaves of DD's latest comments it looks like they will probably only add one big bat - 1B or DH to be determined - with Hanley occupying the other position.Now, this may have been a smokescreen but I doubt it. DD seems to be a far from devious GM. He lays out a plan and is pretty direct about accomplishing it.

    So - J.D. had to be the primary FA target , Abreu as the top trade target. Please stay far away from Hosmer. He's not a bad player but you don't want to pay 100+m for a "not a bad player". As for Santana, he has the QO albatross - he would have to have been considered prior to that being applied I think. Maybe Duda?

    So - for me ..

    Sign J.D Martinez as DH/4th OF
    Hanley to 1B
    Sign Nunez as supersub - replacing Holt on the roster

    Regulars: Vazquez, Hanley, Pedroia, X, Devers, Betts, JBJ, Benentendi, Martinez

    Bench: Nunez, Swihart, Travis, Brentz

    I would be surprised if they add any bullpen pieces - maybe a loogie. As for SPs, I could see Fister brought back considering the health of ERod and Wright.
     
  9. ElcaballitoMVP

    ElcaballitoMVP Member SoSH Member

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    I just don't see Bradley moving the needle much. They could just as easily sign a LF, move Marte to CF and deal Cutch for a prospect or two and keep Harrison in their lineup. The value JBJ offers as an elite defensive CF isn't going to be as high when they have someone like Marte already in the fold.

    If the Sox are going to deal Bradley, I think someone like SF makes more sense. Spacious OF, no great CF on the team and a guy like Belt to target to fill a need at 1B.
     
  10. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I'm in agreement with your read that DD is probably only adding one big bat, but also think you are still going on to make some far reaches there on JD and Nunez. JD because you then have us paying the super premium on a primary DH (which a lot of use are extremely skeptical he'd do, hence the entrance of all this Bradley trade speculation), and Nunez because DD has already implied he wasn't going to be taking that kind of approach towards filling in for Pedroia (plus Nunez is getting a guaranteed starting gig elsewhere, so he's certainly not going to sign here anyway).

    Personally, I think it's more likely at this point that DD makes same non-panic right turn he did last winter when most had him taking that left towards EE going in:

    1. Outbid the field on Jay Bruce, who's premium cost is going to be a lot less stressful then JD Martinez and more in line with what what we are actually willing to spend on a DH type without losing any real sleep over it. Who slots your much needed 35 home runs in at DH. while still rotating in at OF and some random 1B.

    2. Hanley obviously moves back to full time 1B at that point, with the the added benefit that he'll have to stay healthy enough to remain on the field for that option to vest.

    3. Bradley, who is essentially at a crossroad here atm, gets his 1/3-1/2 season chance to rebound. If he doesn't hit well enough Jay Bruce then shifts into a full time OF spot, Bradley either gets traded off or regulated to 4th OF for the time being (replacing whatever league min'ish scrub we have going in), and you are still left with the open DH flexibility to explore offensive upgrade trades. Or heck, I guess maybe Chavis even ends up looking like a decent bet by then to make the aggressive jump.

    From there maybe DD surprises again and outbids the field on retaining Reed. I mean it does avoid that step backwards, and offers decent post-2018 Kimbrel insurance being a guy who might be able to fill that void here without being offered the closer's role up front. At which point we could probably also look to dump the final year's Joe Kelly's contract in a trade that both shreds a little salary and brings back some super random/cheap SP flyer type for added depth.

    - Rough out of pocket cost total on the season (including Castillo) - $240m
    - $14m of in-season breathing room before we hit the 62.5% LT tier, and see our 1st rounder drop 10 spots.
     
  11. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    Just reading how Martinez has hired Boras and wants 200m .. so much for that idea. Mind you Boras may want 200m but he's not going to get it. If he can be had for a 5/125 type deal I'd go for it .. but he's a terrible defensive OF and I would think the Sox would want no part of that 200m nonsense.
     
  12. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    Stanton. Might need to take on the whole contract to minimize the prospect load but he is making no more than Manny did when we got him (less actually as a percentage of payroll and revenue). He is the impact power bat thats needed. Rather him than JD Martinez who is 2 years older and may cost as much (albeit sans prospects)

    My MFY paranoia tells me Yankees have better prospects to offer and the Jeter connection but probably dont feel the need to do a deal and wont want to go over the LT threshold. But they could get Marlins to take eat some salary with a good enough package. I dont even want to think of him in a MFY lineup. We need him more
     
  13. BigPapiMPD34

    BigPapiMPD34 lurker

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    Stanton is under contract for 10 more seasons for $295M. To waive his no trade clause, he might make you pick up the option, making it $310M over 11 seasons). Would you really prefer to have Stanton for 10 / $295M (or 11 / $310M) instead of Martinez for 6 / $150M or so? The 10+ year contract is a hard no for me as it is very likely to hamstring the organization down the road.
     
  14. mlthomaas

    mlthomaas lurker

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    $150M is my line, and I wouldn’t advocate for a penny more. He will most likely get over $150M. Why give Martinez 6 or 7 years when he is two years older than Stanton? Stanton will only roughly make $130M over many more seasons and you could see him opt out, in the event player salaries really do take off.

    Martinez not costing a draft pick is nice, and Stanton would require a Michael Chavis or Groome to be dealt, but you acquire Stanton because he’s the better player and a superstar on a decent contract in terms of AAV/luxury tax purposes.
     
  15. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    FYI on this one:

    Jerry Crasnick‏Verified account @jcrasnick 6h6 hours ago

    MLB teams that have inquired on FA outfielder Jay Bruce say he’s seeking a deal for 5 years in the $80-90 million range.
     
  16. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah I read that earlier. Obviously not the numbers I had in mind in an outdoing the field bid, but I still just don't see a lot of other options out there that line up with what I think will otherwise satisfy DD (ideally a 30hr+ cleanup hitter) in a spending less then super premium scenario. Bruce and maybe Moustakas I guess are pretty much it. I think the SoSH collective is going to like Santana more then DD ultimately will over the bigger HR guys, and Morrison simply has to much complete bust potential for him to gamble on.

    If DD was to splurge I see Hosmer and the potential we buy into his 2017 as a breakout year being more of a wild card then Martinez at this point though. So my current guess is that whoever the bat does end up being, it comes from the Hosmer/Bruce/Moustakas trio, and some people won't be doing cartwheels over the price tag.
     
  17. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

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    I would imagine a combo of Ozuna and Abreu. No idea how that could be achieved, but giving up JBJ and a heavily subsidized Hanley might get part of the job done.
     
  18. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Not sure where he’d fit here, but Randal Grichuk would seem to be displaced if the Cards acquire Stanton.

    His BB and K rates leave me wanting, but he’s an extreme pull hitter with well above-average exit velocity (40.2% above 95mph — 23rd in MLB) that could play well in Fenway.
     
    #318 chawson, Nov 9, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2017
  19. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I don't understand the seeking part. He'd love 90, but would settle for 80?

    The dude finally cracks the one win mark for the first time in 4 years and he thinks he'll get close to that? He had a great first half (wRC+ 128) and then reverted to closer to his career mark of 108 (104) in the second half.

    This seems like a trickle down effect from Boras' attempt to reset the market. I can't imagine he'd get more than 3/yrs/50. He's basically a future bottom tier 1b.
     
    #319 grimshaw, Nov 9, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2017
  20. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    If I had the time it would be fun to do a research project comparing these initial public agent "seeking" claims to the eventual signed deals. I suspect they get too much attention paid them.
     
  21. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, of all the guys on the board I think he's the best bet to see a failed expectation market, which hasn't been all that kind to the lower high HR/low obp types either. But I was also probably shooting too low thinking 3/$39 earlier.

    Still though, there just aren't a lot of other options that check enough boxes that I see DD aiming at. He's not reckless enough to trade for Miggy, and isn't the type that is going to sit around and wait to see what happens with Martinez.

    Bruce at 3/$50 isn't the sexy option, but I'm guessing I like it more then what it takes to get Moose or especially Hosmer to ink in a non-drawn out scenario.
     
  22. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    I was thinking 3/$54 - $18/yr ... a little more for a shorter period ... Cherington like
     
  23. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    I would rather just run with what we have(or resign Moreland) than give Bruce a 3/50 contract
     
  24. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    I looked at that Miggy thread and figured while we're getting crazy and discussing AL Central first basemen, what about Joe Mauer? Probably cheap to acquire, only signed for one year, was actually good last year while other Twins were getting all the attention. Doesn't solve the power issue, but would still be an upgrade in on-base ability - would have led the Sox in that category by some distance in 2017. No idea if he's actually available, but I'm not sure it's any nuttier than some of the suggestions I've seen.
     
  25. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The Twins aren't currently rebuilding and he's only signed for one year. Why would they be interested in trading him?
     
  26. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Is it not still the expectation that they'll move Sano off third in the not-too-distant future?
     
  27. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I haven't seen anything indicating it has to be this season.

    EDIT--but if that's your rationale, then fair enough
     
  28. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    This is by far the least probable outcome though. DD already implied that he wants to upgrade from Moreland, and while we can have our fun with the trade speculation (this is the crazy thread after all) , the fact remains that signing a FA is probably the most realistic path to that given our limited trade ammo.

    So it's less a matter of what I want there then it is what I'd be most comfortable with given the visible options. Well, at least assuming that market did drop to 3 years. I'd be more meh on it if it had to come at an additional one.
     
  29. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    The Royals and A's are just about out of the running for anyone expensive. My guess is two or more of Moreland, Napoli, Lind, Alvarez, Reynolds or Carter sign there.

    As far as prospects, the Mets have Dominic Smith, but they may sign insurance as well. The Rays have Jake Bauers who should also be about ready.

    Competitive teams that would spend money and actually need 1b are the Angels, Indians, Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers, and Rockies - though Desmond played some 1b last year.

    I would guess the Indians retain Santana, as signing a middle of the pack 1b for another team will be too costly with the QO.

    That leaves 5 teams competing for Martinez (if he moves to 1b. Ditto Bruce) Duda, Alonso, Hosmer, and Morrison. Martinez obviously has a bigger market since he could sign as a RF or LF but the others are restricted.

    Abreu is also probably available in a trade as is Headley. Less likely is Miggy and Bour.

    I'm not seeing a pressing need for them to rush into anything at that position given the lack of an elite player beyond Martinez and vanilla secondary options.
     
    #329 grimshaw, Nov 10, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2017
  30. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Me either, but I'm not sold DD will see it that way.

    On that note, watching how Hosmer's market plays out will be an interesting one imo. He doesn't appear to have that fall back home team interest that Chris Davis had, and I'm not completely sold that there is a team lined up with a super long deal for him.

    I might like him more this winter if he ends up having to go down a similar opt out after one path that Cespedes did a few years back to get his first big per/year payday out of FA.
     
  31. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    If the stories out of SF are correct and Belt is going to be elsewhere next season, Hosmer's a fit there. Texas, though, seems like the better fit
     
  32. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I can see a fit being out there NP. It's the 7 year leap of faith contract paying him what *he* will feel is an adequate per/year rate (obviously based on 2017 alone) type of fit that I question on being there.

    Boras is probably in for a much harder time getting Hosmer that type of contract then he'll have with Martinez imo.
     
  33. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    What's (if there is) the realistic market for these guys? The Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros all seem like they wouldn't be interested in JD at even close to Boras' asking price (Hosmer, Bruce and Mostakas too). If the Sox didn't have so many bad contracts still being paid out (Castillo, Panda, Hanley) then I'd put them into that group, but they're in the next rung down as far as big spending possibilities go.
    The Yankees need pitching and I think will hold off until next offseason.... The Cubs need pitching. Astros need a better closer.... Dodgers need pitching. I just don't see any market for these guys in their high end price tags.
     
  34. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    The Giants would seem to be making room for first base prospect Chris Shaw, who they drafted as Panda compensation.
     
  35. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Speculation over that $200m keeps getting stuck of the surface notion that it has to come at 8 years, but that's not even going to be the case. As far as the comparative market itself is concerned JD Martinez deserves more then $25m/per imo, and I still like my 6 years with some type of option on a 7th that puts him at or close to $200m total.

    While my money isn't on it coming out of DD, I'm still also not at the point of completely writing him off there yet either (assuming they take the above deal if it was put on the table at the winter meetings). I keep going back and forth on what that outside chance actually is though, since it's important to keep in mind there that this essentially doesn't amount to a scenario where you get a "do over" latter. Bryce Harper could sign an extension at any point in the next year and it then might be another decade that it's already been until the next .300/40 guy (that's only 30yo) hits FA. If DD ever envisioned adding one of the league's premier bats to this lineup - there is a pretty good chance that *this* is the only clear and reachable opportunity he's ever going to see that does that. On that factor alone, and like everybody else out there, he still has to be viewed as a wild card I guess.

    Moose's market might be another rough one. Younger then Justin Turner was, and looks a lot better overall potential wise then Pablo Sandoval did.
     
  36. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    This is more of an "offseason plan" suggestion than a "risky acquisition," but how about we not sign a 30+ year old hitter to a mega deal, and instead blow past the LT/CBT threshold by offering high $/short term extensions to multiple key players in order to extend the current window a couple of years? Offer Sale a 2 year/$65M extension. Offer Pom a 2 yr/$40M extension. Offer Kimbrel a 2 yr/$38M extension. Go to Betts and X and see if you can buy out their arb years and just 1 yr of FA for top-of-those-markets deals. The suggested $ amounts above might need to be higher; the idea is to avoid losing a bunch of guys in 2 years while also avoiding paying players into their late 30s or paying top $ on 8-10 year deals.

    Then get another good BP arm, like Minor. Add a reasonable, better-than-Moreland bat for 1B. And if you really want a luxury item, throw another low year(s)/high $ offer at Nunez, who solves the short-term 2B problem, can replace Young as our 4th OF, and gives us a good, bat-first UT guy.
     
  37. Hawk68

    Hawk68 lurker

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    Yes. This is what risk management looks like.
     
  38. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    This should go in Lets Get Reasonable, but I like it.
     
  39. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, that's just too crazy. Can we get back to taking on one of the 5 biggest contracts in history? I mean we've got our choice of two of them...
     
  40. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    I considered the "reasonable" thread but figured I was still proposing to spend enough of JH's money that this thread was a better fit!
     
  41. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    I don’t dislike it, but it would be a strong bet that last year’s 92 team wRC+ was a fluke.
     
  42. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Neither Sale nor Kimbrel would go for those deals. Price got 7/217 two years ago and Chapman got 5/86. Sale and Kimbrel will get at least those deals when they hit FA. If you want to be unorthodox and offer them short term deals "way over market value" Sale would need to get at least 2/75 and Kimbrel would be getting like 2/45.

    edit: 32.5 mil is what Sale would command now as a FA on a long term deal, prob more. Kimbrel will prob be looking at 20 mil a year when he hits FA.
     
    #342 sean1562, Nov 10, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2017
  43. timlinin8th

    timlinin8th Member SoSH Member

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    Also, if reports were to be believed, an extension was already discussed with Mookie and he turned it down - if that is indeed the case he is not going to extend unless he's offered a FA-equivalent contract.
     
  44. TimScribble

    TimScribble Member SoSH Member

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  45. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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  46. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    That, and then you have the whole how much of a monster payroll that doubling down on an already losing bet actually adds up to.

    Nothing really "reasonable" about it, which in turn makes it more then fitting for here imo.
     
  47. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I liked the Stanton possibility more before I thought there would be multiple other horses in the race that would be willing to eat that contract in it's entirety.
     
  48. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    I know it's been discussed..... but the "adding a power bat" option- either through FA or through a trade seems high risk.
    We have Devers.... and (ducking...) a hopefully healed Hanley at DH. If the Sox basically brought back the same exact team... and say Nunez at 2B, is it realistic to expect Mookie, JBJ and X to bounce back in the power department? Would the Sox power bump up to at least league average or higher? What can we really expect out of Devers to be the power cornerstone for the next 4 years?
     
  49. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    I am starting to lean towards hoping benintendi and devers take steps forward next year as our plan, with someone like Lucas Duda at 1b. I am not interested in Bruce at 3/50 or Martinez at 200+.
     
  50. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Nunez is a fun player who had a good first month with the Sox. There’s no reason to think he’s better than the 100 wRC+ bat that he’s been the last several years, and while he knows how to play several positions, he’s not good at them.

    He’s decent and has value, but he’d be a waste of resources at the price he’ll fetch, and he’s likely to barely improve the offense.

    With Chili out and a new hitting coach (and philosophy) in, I’m optimistic the team will focus more on launch angles and driving first-pitch strikes. Things should improve. But I also have a feeling DD believes an elite slugger in the lineup (like Ortiz) may help relax everyone else from thinking they have to do too much. Remember — those “we miss David” reports began circulating in late April.
     

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