Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Buzzkill Pauley

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Yeah, that's just too crazy. Can we get back to taking on one of the 5 biggest contracts in history? I mean we've got our choice of two of them...
Since we've already got Price, doesn't that just mean that we could have 3-of-5 by the end of the offseason? I'm never a fan of either/or thinking.

And, in that spirit, cross-posting from the news thread:

Not a fan of acquiring Stanton. Between the cost in talent it will require the Sox to give up and his injury history .......no thanks.
How much more than Benintendi’s next 5 years of club control is Stanton really worth, though, given his salary? Some, to be sure, but probably not that much.

Obviously, to beat the other teams offers — all of whom appear to have better true prospects at the moment — I think the Sox would need to dip into their young MLB talent to get Stanton. But the Sox have a large number of MLB-minimum options available to them who should help the Marlins rebuild their MLB team on a budget. I don't know the Marlins prospects, but they only have one MLB catcher on their active roster. Would they take just Swihart + Benintendi for Stanton? Would Stanton even agree to play LF after playing basically his whole career in right, or would that be a sticking point for his no-trade? So many questions.

Though frankly, in the end, I’d probably really rather see Stanton on the team despite his low historical BA, after considering his age, high productivity despite hitting against really darn good pitchers in NL East, and good rate stats in high-leverage opportunities, than most of the options who are actually on the market rather than pie-in-the-sky (such as Votto or Freeman).
 

chawson

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What is Benintendi's ceiling in LF? Do we expect him to a .850 OPS guy? If so, with Devers, do we really need a "big bat"? If not, is he so untouchable to not be traded for one of the premier sluggers of this generation when we are "all in" over the next few years?
This is a good question. Benny had a nice first season at age 23, but it seems like one of his prime merits as a prospect/rookie is the very low risk. It’s hard to know his upside, however, given his limitations vs. lefties, or furthermore whether he’s a fit for this park. (He had a quietly poor season at Fenway.)

It sounds kind of blasphemous, but if his Red Sox upside is someone like Josh Reddick or Gregory Polanco, I’d definitely try to turn him into Stanton.
 

grimshaw

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I have yet to hear a rumor beyond the Cardinals offering one of their good young arms in a deal with Stanton. I understand you have to give talent to get talent, but his deal is so risky - even without the opt out - that I would be shocked if any top prospect/cost controlled player like Beni needed to be moved unless a ton of salary was eaten on the Marlins side.

I have a feeling a lot of us are going to be surprised at what the acquisition cost is going to be.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I have yet to hear a rumor beyond the Cardinals offering one of their good young arms in a deal with Stanton. I understand you have to give talent to get talent, but his deal is so risky - even without the opt out - that I would be shocked if any top prospect/cost controlled player like Beni needed to be moved unless a ton of salary was eaten on the Marlins side.

I have a feeling a lot of us are going to be surprised at what the acquisition cost is going to be.
The thing is, the Red Sox don't really have a "top prospect." Our best two, which have a sizable gap behind them before the next prospect (Mata), are Groome and Chavis. Groome still has a huge ceiling, but his value as a prospect plummeted this year. I've yet to hear any of people from the major outlets talk about Groome or Chavis as anything more than bottom of the top 100 types on their podcasts. Chavis's power is real, but his ceiling is limited by a number of factors. Groome will need to show he can be both healthy and productive before he climbs the rankings again.

So the Sox may give up their top prospects, but that price still won't be very high relatively speaking.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Nunez is a fun player who had a good first month with the Sox. There’s no reason to think he’s better than the 100 wRC+ bat that he’s been the last several years, and while he knows how to play several positions, he’s not good at them.

He’s decent and has value, but he’d be a waste of resources at the price he’ll fetch, and he’s likely to barely improve the offense.

With Chili out and a new hitting coach (and philosophy) in, I’m optimistic the team will focus more on launch angles and driving first-pitch strikes. Things should improve. But I also have a feeling DD believes an elite slugger in the lineup (like Ortiz) may help relax everyone else from thinking they have to do too much. Remember — those “we miss David” reports began circulating in late April.
How much do you really think Nunez is going to cost? His last AB last season looked like dollar signs going down the drain.....
I also think Howie Kendrick should be targeted if Nunez won't go for a one year (prove I'm healthy) deal.
The question really I'm asking though is about focusing on the club at hand; can Devers supply 30+ HR power in his 1st full season? Can Benintendi, Mookie and Hanley (and say... Duda?) all get around 25? Can X, JBJ and Nunez/Kendrick/Pedroia put up around 20? If so (and all that seems reasonable) then I'd walk away from the Stanton trade talks, the Martinez (Hosmer, Moose, Bruce, etc...) free agent signings.... get Duda, Nunez/Kendrick, resign Reed...
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I have yet to hear if anyone is willing to eat the entire Stanton contract, which obviously affects how much goes to Miami in return. If the Sox are the only ones willing to take the whole contract, then we may be at the from of the line, from Miami's standpoint, if their priority is to maximize budget reduction rather than talent in return. We don't have as much talent we can afford to send as other teams in the running, but the teams willing to give up a lot of talent probably are looking for the Marlins to eat some of the money (probably St. Louis).

And I would not include Beni, Devers, Groome or Chavis in such a deal. As many have speculated, JBJ would probably be the one to go, and if he's what Miami's wants, then DD could certainly look to involve another team to get assets more to Miami's liking, as there are a number of teams (like SF) looking for a CF. If the Sox are willing to eat the whole contract, I think they could make a competitive offer without any of those top 4 young guys.

I'd be pursuing this before I'd spend over 150 on JDM.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is a good question. Benny had a nice first season at age 23, but it seems like one of his prime merits as a prospect/rookie is the very low risk. It’s hard to know his upside, however, given his limitations vs. lefties, or furthermore whether he’s a fit for this park. (He had a quietly poor season at Fenway.)

It sounds kind of blasphemous, but if his Red Sox upside is someone like Josh Reddick or Gregory Polanco, I’d definitely try to turn him into Stanton.
Ben10 has struggled vs lefties to date but he hit them pretty well in the minors, though not nearly as well as righties. He still had an OBP of .335 vs L this year despite hitting .232, granted with no power. That won't really matter if he can increase his batting average enough to get his OBP into the .350-360 range. A lot of his value will come from defense but I think his ceiling is probably in the .850-.900 range if you are using OPS. I'd guess he'll average around 5-6 WAR through his peak.

I wouldn't trade him for Stanton straight up. I just don't see a scenario where the Redsox are willing to trade players for the rights to pay Stanton $30 mil a year when they could just overpay JD, keep their assets and probably spend less in the process.
 

sean1562

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how great has he been defensively though? i know some stats(one season, short sample etc)dont love him defensively. I agree though that he will improve, along with Devers, and we dont need to dump loads of cash into Martinez or Stanton this offseason. Would much rather them sign a Lucas Duda type this year, hope Benintendi and Devers "break out" and reassess after next season. If Price opts out, maybe throw ourselves into the Machado sweepstakes, if Devers doesnt improve defensively.
 

Cesar Crespo

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how great has he been defensively though? i know some stats(one season, short sample etc)dont love him defensively. I agree though that he will improve, along with Devers, and we dont need to dump loads of cash into Martinez or Stanton this offseason. Would much rather them sign a Lucas Duda type this year, hope Benintendi and Devers "break out" and reassess after next season. If Price opts out, maybe throw ourselves into the Machado sweepstakes, if Devers doesnt improve defensively.
Debatable but from what I've seen, Ben10 isn't going to be a negative in the field. He'd probably also offer more value in CF than LF which Im guessing is the major reason why he's mentioned in trade talks. On any other team, he'd be close to untouchable.

edit: Although, to be fair, he's being mentioned in trades involving Stanton and Rizzo. That should tell us all something.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Copied and pasted this little stat from Cafardo's bit, " Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. combined to hit just .238 with only 28 HRs and a .688 OPS after the All-Star break."
That's obviously horrendous and it seems like it's both easy to figure a major improvement offensively from all 4 of those guys- it's just as easy to be very weary about predicting any improvement based on those numbers.
I'm just asking for the real Xander, Betts and JBJ to please stand so we can know who the hell they are!
 

Schnerres

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It may not be that crazy, but I guess it´s addition by subtraction (save money+add prospects):

-Trade Craig Kimbrel to WAS for prospects. (Other options: STL, CHC, ARI,..)

-Sign some Bullpen FA(s?): Reed, Brandon Morrow, Bryan Shaw
-get a closer through FA: sign Juan Nicasio or Pat Neshek or Fernando Rodney

Kimbrel has been statistically great his entire career and probably saves 0-3 games in which an average closers loses. But (1) he will cost insane money next year, (2)you can get decent prospects for him, (3)he can only go one inning and (4)he can also blow games on the playoff stage, like anybody. So just trade him.
 

MikeM

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But the Sox have a large number of MLB-minimum options available to them who should help the Marlins rebuild their MLB team on a budget.
You mean we have 2 of any real note - Devers and Ben10, and who are arguably going to be needed to play key roles here in keeping our own budget in check. At least as people slowly come to grips that the whole "embarrassment of riches" projection out of that #1 farm system run (which has since dried up) didn't pan out anywhere close to providing the type of cornerstone backbone/financial flexibility going forward that everybody had hoped it would.

I'm also not quite getting why anybody (not pointing at you specifically here btw) hating on the surface idea of paying out $200m on JD Martinez would turn around and support a trade for Stanton. Stanton is only 2 years younger and has about the same general level of staying on the field concern surrounding him as JD does. You also have to commit to 3-4 additional years on the back end, which might as well be an extra eternity as far as these contracts go, *and* you give up current assets to boot.

Any perceived difference in quality there beyond the bigger name appeal just isn't worth all that imo.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Ah, the Internet

SoSH poster reports that Boston Herald writer tweets that Miami Herald reports that "a source" (never named) says that Stanton talks "may be heating up."

And what did this source say? "They're definitely in play."

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/fish-bytes/article184112096.html

All that remains is for MLBTR to post that the Boston Herald reported that the Miami Herald says that an unnamed source says the Red Sox are in play for Stanton
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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You mean we have 2 of any real note - Devers and Ben10, and who are arguably going to be needed to play key roles here in keeping our own budget in check. At least as people slowly come to grips that the whole "embarrassment of riches" projection out of that #1 farm system run (which has since dried up) didn't pan out anywhere close to providing the type of cornerstone backbone/financial flexibility going forward that everybody had hoped it would.

I'm also not quite getting why anybody (not pointing at you specifically here btw) hating on the surface idea of paying out $200m on JD Martinez would turn around and support a trade for Stanton. Stanton is only 2 years younger and has about the same general level of staying on the field concern surrounding him as JD does. You also have to commit to 3-4 additional years on the back end, which might as well be an extra eternity as far as these contracts go, *and* you give up current assets to boot.

Any perceived difference in quality there beyond the bigger name appeal just isn't worth all that imo.
Sox players with 4+ years of MLB club control and/or rookie eligibility remaining, the list also includes Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson, Hector Velazquez, Austin Maddox, and Matt Barnes... in addition to Benintendi, Devers, the true prospects, and the older guys like Brentz or Travis or Johnson.

Most of those aren’t impressive, but the Sox do have a fairly large group of non-untouchable young players beyond the two main ones.

Of course, those of us who followed the farm system knew that DDski would gut it, and he did. That’s just how he rolls, and his time in Boston is proving no different. There shouldn’t be any doubt the Sox have a bottom-of-the-barrel farm remaining after the trades he’s made, but the Sox still do have some assets.

As to the question regarding the theoretical preferability of JD vs Stanton, I’ll leave that to others to parse out because I’m pretty much agnostic. But I will point out that the Red Sox signing JD Martinez isn’t going to happen without competition from other clubs, either. So the FO needs to operate with many irons in the fire, this early in the offseason. Cherington basically slept on the surprise trade market for Donaldson that sprung up during the offseason he signed both Panda and Hanley. That’s proven fairly disastrous, but the most important lesson is this: regardless how extra offense is obtained this offseason, or which power bat(s) are brought aboard, the important thing is not to foreclose other opportunities prematurely. DDski isn’t doing that, thankfully.
 

MikeM

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Things should improve. But I also have a feeling DD believes an elite slugger in the lineup (like Ortiz) may help relax everyone else from thinking they have to do too much. Remember — those “we miss David” reports began circulating in late April.
Agreed, at least while under the assumption that the good looking and more budget minded option doesn't end up being there.

With the battle to build a team that stays under the LT already lost anyway, there is a point here (imo) where spending $200m on a JD Martinez makes some sense imo. Similar to how signing Max Scherzer for $200m a few years back made more sense if you were just going to turn around and spend $100m of that on a Pablo Sandoval.
 

tonyarmasjr

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And, in that spirit, cross-posting from the news thread:
How much more than Benintendi’s next 5 years of club control is Stanton really worth, though, given his salary? Some, to be sure, but probably not that much.

Obviously, to beat the other teams offers — all of whom appear to have better true prospects at the moment — I think the Sox would need to dip into their young MLB talent to get Stanton. But the Sox have a large number of MLB-minimum options available to them who should help the Marlins rebuild their MLB team on a budget. I don't know the Marlins prospects, but they only have one MLB catcher on their active roster. Would they take just Swihart + Benintendi for Stanton? Would Stanton even agree to play LF after playing basically his whole career in right, or would that be a sticking point for his no-trade? So many questions.

Though frankly, in the end, I’d probably really rather see Stanton on the team despite his low historical BA, after considering his age, high productivity despite hitting against really darn good pitchers in NL East, and good rate stats in high-leverage opportunities, than most of the options who are actually on the market rather than pie-in-the-sky (such as Votto or Freeman).
And don't forget those majestic bombs. I'm not really for a Stanton trade, but I find myself enticed by the sheer entertainment of seeing him hit moonshot after moonshot over the Monster. His ABs would be of the don't-miss variety, similar to Manny and Ortiz. If DD is willing to accept that the team he builds this winter is pretty much the one he's locked into for the Sale window, and that that window will be followed by a rebuild, I can't really argue against him gutting the rest of the farm. The rebuild would start in earnest with this year's draft and IFA market, with the expectation that the selling off of some ML assets in a couple years would help to more fully restock the system for the next generation of success - while we watch a couple years of either a salary cap hamstrung, aging roster or one devoid of enough talent to compete for a title.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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And don't forget those majestic bombs. I'm not really for a Stanton trade, but I find myself enticed by the sheer entertainment of seeing him hit moonshot after moonshot over the Monster. His ABs would be of the don't-miss variety, similar to Manny and Ortiz. If DD is willing to accept that the team he builds this winter is pretty much the one he's locked into for the Sale window, and that that window will be followed by a rebuild, I can't really argue against him gutting the rest of the farm. The rebuild would start in earnest with this year's draft and IFA market, with the expectation that the selling off of some ML assets in a couple years would help to more fully restock the system for the next generation of success - while we watch a couple years of either a salary cap hamstrung, aging roster or one devoid of enough talent to compete for a title.
Every single prospect (not many left) should be available via trade. Sox will need to take on all of Stanton’s deal as well. We know that the farm is destroyed no choice but to go all in now. Rather do it with Stanton than say JD Martinez or Miggy.
 

MikeM

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Every single prospect (not many left) should be available via trade. Sox will need to take on all of Stanton’s deal as well. We know that the farm is destroyed no choice but to go all in now. Rather do it with Stanton than say JD Martinez or Miggy.
Ok, let's assume we pass on paying $200m for Martinez in favor of surrendering Ben10 and what's left of our attractive prospect assets to take on Stanton's $300m.

So next offseason when a 33yo Price has a solid year but still doesn't opt out of those last 4, Hanley stays on books, and arby raises by themselves are again eating up financial flexibility as fast or faster then we can shed the old money....what's the plan then to replace Pom/Kimbrel? Because you certainly won't be making any trades with the pieces you already gave up in the name of securing whatever preference exists in having Stanton in your 2018 lineup over Martinez.
 

nvalvo

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Every single prospect (not many left) should be available via trade. Sox will need to take on all of Stanton’s deal as well. We know that the farm is destroyed no choice but to go all in now. Rather do it with Stanton than say JD Martinez or Miggy.
If we’re taking on all of Stanton’s deal, and sending prospects, why not just sign Martinez for less money and no outbound players?
 

chawson

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If we’re taking on all of Stanton’s deal, and sending prospects, why not just sign Martinez for less money and no outbound players?
Because (maybe) Stanton will be traded before JDM signs and DDski would rather pay premium to hit a target than be left sucking the mop.
 
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moondog80

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Ok, let's assume we pass on paying $200m for Martinez in favor of surrendering Ben10 and what's left of our attractive prospect assets to take on Stanton's $300m.

So next offseason when a 33yo Price has a solid year but still doesn't opt out of those last 4, Hanley stays on books, and arby raises by themselves are again eating up financial flexibility as fast or faster then we can shed the old money....what's the plan then to replace Pom/Kimbrel? Because you certainly won't be making any trades with the pieces you already gave up in the name of securing whatever preference exists in having Stanton in your 2018 lineup over Martinez.
I know it's Boras' asking price, but its hardly a given that JD will get 200 mil. Last year everyone figured Encarnacion for 100 mil and he got 60. DH types often find a limited market. I'll take the under on 200 mil.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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If we’re taking on all of Stanton’s deal, and sending prospects, why not just sign Martinez for less money and no outbound players?
This exactly. Why on earth are some of you willing to trade one of the best young hitters in the game on a rookie contract for the right to pay Stanton $25 million until he is 39? A guy who has not been the most durable through his career thus far.

Serious question: If Stanton was a FA this offseason and he were to sign a 12 year deal, what would you guess the AAV to be? That much more than $25 mill per to make up for including Benintendi in a trade? Ridiculous.
 

pdub

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Agreed with the above, its ridiculous to trade prospects AND absorb Stanton's deal in its entirety. Even if JDM gets $200M, at least we don't give up any prospects. Is Stanton really ~$125M better than JDM? Still, I'd rather sign Carlos Santana and be done with it.
 

sean1562

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This exactly. Why on earth are some of you willing to trade one of the best young hitters in the game on a rookie contract for the right to pay Stanton $25 million until he is 39? A guy who has not been the most durable through his career thus far.

Serious question: If Stanton was a FA this offseason and he were to sign a 12 year deal, what would you guess the AAV to be? That much more than $25 mill per to make up for including Benintendi in a trade? Ridiculous.
I agree that we shouldnt trade Benintendi for Stanton's entire deal, but is he really "one of the best young hitters in the game"? He is a solid OF that would probably be more valuable for a team in need of a CF, but I dont think he is, right now, "one of the best young hitters in the game". Of all players 26 and younger he was ranked 30 by wRC+ last year. He had a solid rookie season and I hope he takes a step forward next season, but I think that statement is a tad hyperbolic.

When it comes down to it, Andrew is a player that is really more valuable on another team, one where he can play CF. If we really want to go "all-in", maybe we should sign JD Martinez and see what we can get for Benintendi?
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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I agree that we shouldnt trade Benintendi for Stanton's entire deal, but is he really "one of the best young hitters in the game"? He is a solid OF that would probably be more valuable for a team in need of a CF, but I dont think he is, right now, "one of the best young hitters in the game". Of all players 26 and younger he was ranked 30 by wRC+ last year. He had a solid rookie season and I hope he takes a step forward next season, but I think that statement is a tad hyperbolic.

When it comes down to it, Andrew is a player that is really more valuable on another team, one where he can play CF. If we really want to go "all-in", maybe we should sign JD Martinez and see what we can get for Benintendi?
He just had a 20/20 season as a 23 year old! Yes, I would call him one of the best young hitters in the game who has quite a bright future ahead of him. Trading that for the right to pay Stanton $300 million for the next 12 years is absolutely insane.

And to your second point, you want to trade him to go "all in" because he is more valuable on another team? I am having trouble finding any sense in that statement. What targets do you have in mind exactly?
 

Hee Sox Choi

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I agree that we shouldnt trade Benintendi for Stanton's entire deal, but is he really "one of the best young hitters in the game"? He is a solid OF that would probably be more valuable for a team in need of a CF, but I dont think he is, right now, "one of the best young hitters in the game". Of all players 26 and younger he was ranked 30 by wRC+ last year. He had a solid rookie season and I hope he takes a step forward next season, but I think that statement is a tad hyperbolic.

When it comes down to it, Andrew is a player that is really more valuable on another team, one where he can play CF. If we really want to go "all-in", maybe we should sign JD Martinez and see what we can get for Benintendi?
MLB article on 9/15/17 ranking rookies by long-term potential -- #1: Andrew Benintendi.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/254400410/ranking-rookies-by-long-term-potential/?topicid=151437456
 

chawson

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He just had a 20/20 season as a 23 year old! Yes, I would call him one of the best young hitters in the game who has quite a bright future ahead of him. Trading that for the right to pay Stanton $300 million for the next 12 years is absolutely insane.

And to your second point, you want to trade him to go "all in" because he is more valuable on another team? I am having trouble finding any sense in that statement. What targets do you have in mind exactly?
He was fine. He had a 103 wRC+ which ranked 43rd out of 83 qualified MLB outfielders. Nice rookie season.

I think his point is that his defensive value is mitigated playing half his games in Fenway’s left field. And possibly, his hitting tool as a LHH playing half his games here may be too.
 

SouthernBoSox

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He was fine. He had a 103 wRC+ which ranked 43rd out of 83 qualified MLB outfielders. Nice rookie season.

I think his point is that his defensive value is mitigated playing half his games in Fenway’s left field. And possibly, his hitting tool as a LHH playing half his games here may be too.
He also started the season as a 22 year old. He's incredibly young. Something people tend to ignore because he certainly doesn't have a young player approach.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know it's Boras' asking price, but its hardly a given that JD will get 200 mil. Last year everyone figured Encarnacion for 100 mil and he got 60. DH types often find a limited market. I'll take the under on 200 mil.
That's kinda the point. Even at 200 mil, I'd might prefer JD. If they are willing to take on all of Stanton's contract, there is literally no reason why they shouldn't be able to offer JD the best offer.

On a side note that's slightly off topic, there is a new rule in the MLB this year that closed the Rusney Castillo loophole. I'm pretty sure he doesn't count against the cap but can anyone find something that confirms that? I haven't been able to.
 

MikeM

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I know it's Boras' asking price, but its hardly a given that JD will get 200 mil. Last year everyone figured Encarnacion for 100 mil and he got 60. DH types often find a limited market. I'll take the under on 200 mil.
I'd take that under too, as already stated earlier in my guess on what his guaranteed money ends up looking like.

If DD puts that offer on the table at the WM I think it's a pretty good bet he takes it though.

MLB article on 9/15/17 ranking rookies by long-term potential -- #1: Andrew Benintendi.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/254400410/ranking-rookies-by-long-term-potential/?topicid=151437456
Ranking him above Bellinger there is quite the epic reach imo.

Trades that will never happen for a guy like that aside, I'd probably be pretty upset if Ben10 was traded for anything short of a young and cost controlled starting pitcher. Which is worth robbing Peter to pay Paul for since we can't develop any quality ones ourselves.
 
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sean1562

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I wasnt saying that he was bad, just that I would disagree with the statement that he is one of the "best young hitters in the game". It isnt that difficult to list off 10-20 players younger than 26 who had better seasons than he did last season. He had a good rookie season and has a promising future.

But if we are all so confident in his potential as a middle of the order bat who is capable of dramatically improving on last season, why are we even considering trading for Stanton or signing Martinez? If Benintendi is truly one of the "best young hitters in the game", capable of a wRC+ higher than 117(Yasiel Puig territory), than why bother making any serious moves?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I wasnt saying that he was bad, just that I would disagree with the statement that he is one of the "best young hitters in the game". It isnt that difficult to list off 10-20 players younger than 26 who had better seasons than he did last season. He had a good rookie season and has a promising future.

But if we are all so confident in his potential as a middle of the order bat who is capable of dramatically improving on last season, why are we even considering trading for Stanton or signing Martinez? If Benintendi is truly one of the "best young hitters in the game", capable of a wRC+ higher than 117(Yasiel Puig territory), than why bother making any serious moves?
I'd guess that list is mostly full of 25 and 26 year olds. There is a huge difference between a player who played half the year at 22 and a guy who played a full year at 25.

Puig is almost 27. he doesn't even qualify as a young hitter. Anyone turning 25 in 2018 doesn't really qualify. Those are close to peak years, not developing years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Here's a list of players who were 23 as of June 2017 and their totals for the year.

List of Players

He fairs a little worse than I thought, actually. Still, there are so few players that age that you're almost one of the better ones by virtue of playing.


edit: On the other hand, the only players younger than Benintendi that are clearly better are Correa and Bellinger.
 
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sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
I think he has the potential to be a great player. He had a good rookie year. The Red Sox, over the next few years, are really dependent on all of Xander, Benintendi, Devers, Betts and JBJ being above average offensive players. If all of them improve just a little next season, it is a 100 win team. If some(like Devers and Benintendi) take large leaps forward, than our offense is really dangerous, without JD or Stanton. I just dont think Benintendi is elite right now.

But if we are "getting crazy", than I think trading Andrew to a team that needs a CF and signing JD Martinez would be better than trading JBJ, who isnt going to get us a whole lot if we trade him this offseason. With his defense in CF and his "offensive potential", I think JBJ could be the more valuable of the pair over the next few years, the ostensible window of opportunity. If Hosmer was looking at a deal more like 5/100, I would be more "enthusiastic" about jumping in on him. The Hosmer market will be interesting to watch develop. I can't imagine anyone comes close to the 200 million figure Boras keeps throwing out there.
 

BigPapiMPD34

New Member
Apr 9, 2006
98
Boston, MA
Found these charts pretty interesting. Based on Stanton and Martinez' HR spray charts from 2017, it wouldn't appear to have too much of a change by moving to Fenway Park. However, its hard to tell if any of those HRs would turn into line drives off the wall. The other thing to consider is ballpark effects. For example, the ball might carry very well in Arizona (they bailed on their humidor installation), but not as much in Boston due to the cold weather. I would imagine the Sox analytics team is doing deep research on all this.

With the deep RF corner, it can be very tough for a RHH to go deep to the opposite field at Fenway. However, when JD goes the other way (which he does a lot), he goes the other way with no doubt authority. The Martinez spray chart is the one with the large chunk of HRs to RF. Stanton tends to pull his HRs to LF.



 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Jun 2, 2016
1,007
Hanover, PA
I think he has the potential to be a great player. He had a good rookie year. The Red Sox, over the next few years, are really dependent on all of Xander, Benintendi, Devers, Betts and JBJ being above average offensive players. If all of them improve just a little next season, it is a 100 win team. If some(like Devers and Benintendi) take large leaps forward, than our offense is really dangerous, without JD or Stanton. I just dont think Benintendi is elite right now.

But if we are "getting crazy", than I think trading Andrew to a team that needs a CF and signing JD Martinez would be better than trading JBJ, who isnt going to get us a whole lot if we trade him this offseason. With his defense in CF and his "offensive potential", I think JBJ could be the more valuable of the pair over the next few years, the ostensible window of opportunity. If Hosmer was looking at a deal more like 5/100, I would be more "enthusiastic" about jumping in on him. The Hosmer market will be interesting to watch develop. I can't imagine anyone comes close to the 200 million figure Boras keeps throwing out there.
Of course he is not elite right now, HE IS 23 YEARS OLD! He is still one of the best young hitters in the game with as much potential as anyone to be elite.

Please expand on your proposal of trading Benintendi to a rebuilding team in need of a CF who also has a highly valuable asset available to fit our roster.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Because (maybe) Stanton will be traded before JDM signs and DDski would rather pay premium to hit a target than be left sucking the mop.
Right. The reason the Sox won't sign Martinez isn't the asking price per se. It's that he won't sign quickly unless someone jumps at that $200M which no one will do. Boras will wait out the market and Dombrowski cannot risk being the team standing there without a chair when the music stops.

This exactly. Why on earth are some of you willing to trade one of the best young hitters in the game on a rookie contract for the right to pay Stanton $25 million until he is 39? A guy who has not been the most durable through his career thus far.

Serious question: If Stanton was a FA this offseason and he were to sign a 12 year deal, what would you guess the AAV to be? That much more than $25 mill per to make up for including Benintendi in a trade? Ridiculous.
Important note: Stanton will not cost $25M AAV for the team that trades for him. He'll cost either $29.5M if he doesn't insist on his option year being picked up, or $28.18M if he does.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
15,670
Found these charts pretty interesting. Based on Stanton and Martinez' HR spray charts from 2017, it wouldn't appear to have too much of a change by moving to Fenway Park. However, its hard to tell if any of those HRs would turn into line drives off the wall. The other thing to consider is ballpark effects. For example, the ball might carry very well in Arizona (they bailed on their humidor installation), but not as much in Boston due to the cold weather. I would imagine the Sox analytics team is doing deep research on all this.

With the deep RF corner, it can be very tough for a RHH to go deep to the opposite field at Fenway. However, when JD goes the other way (which he does a lot), he goes the other way with no doubt authority. The Martinez spray chart is the one with the large chunk of HRs to RF. Stanton tends to pull his HRs to LF.



That's not right though. All it tells us is they'd lose a HR to RF. It doesn't show us what they'd gain.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Stanton&#39;s spray chart in Fenway Park looks good, but my guess is he loses a lot of line drive home runs (yellow) to the monster <a href="https://t.co/K1OKRoQUBS">pic.twitter.com/K1OKRoQUBS</a></p>&mdash; BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) <a href="">November 11, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Important note: Stanton will not cost $25M AAV for the team that trades for him. He'll cost either $29.5M if he doesn't insist on his option year being picked up, or $28.18M if he does.
Is it all but a given he won't opt out at the end of 2020? What JD gets this year could play into Stanton's decision making, especially if JD gets close to 200m since Stanton would be only 1 year older in 2020 and his contract would be 7/218 at that point. If he's actually been worth the contract to that point, he probably opts out.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Found these charts pretty interesting. Based on Stanton and Martinez' HR spray charts from 2017, it wouldn't appear to have too much of a change by moving to Fenway Park. However, its hard to tell if any of those HRs would turn into line drives off the wall.
Watching this video, I counted at least 10 that Fenway would probably turn into doubles (or even, depending on LF positioning and arm, singles):

https://www.mlb.com/video/all-59-of-stantons-home-runs/c-1714924683?tid=73497276

He certainly hits his share of moon shots, but quite a few of his pulled home runs are low line drives.
 

MikeM

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May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Is it all but a given he won't opt out at the end of 2020? What JD gets this year could play into Stanton's decision making, especially if JD gets close to 200m since Stanton would be only 1 year older in 2020 and his contract would be 7/218 at that point. If he's actually been worth the contract to that point, he probably opts out.
It's not a given, but you certainly can't operate under the safe assumption there that he will. Or that Bryce Harper even goes on to break the per/year market next winter for that matter.

7/218 is still a lot of money even if a similar tier hitter in Martinez gets $200m.
 

soxtalon

New Member
Jul 13, 2005
154
Albany, NY
Stanton has a no trade clause and reportedly wants to go to a contender and either coast. St. Louis ain't the coast, and San Fran finished last....If I'm the Sox, I offer to take the contract and offer Bradley, EdRod, and a few lower level guys...and see if they (or Stanton makes them) blink. If they insist on Beni or Devers, I walk away and look somewhere else...
 

Green Monster

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Sep 29, 2000
2,277
CT
Stanton has a no trade clause and reportedly wants to go to a contender and either coast. St. Louis ain't the coast, and San Fran finished last....If I'm the Sox, I offer to take the contract and offer Bradley, EdRod, and a few lower level guys...and see if they (or Stanton makes them) blink. If they insist on Beni or Devers, I walk away and look somewhere else...
This is an important point.....Stanton holds all the cards.....in the end, he will go where he wants to go
 

PapaSox

New Member
Dec 26, 2015
230
MA
This may just be pure insanity. Trade for the full value of both Stanton and Gordon contracts. In return for Pomeranz, Johnson, Kelly, Hembree and Brentz.
Miami gets an ace for their rotation, a long man who can spot start who may actually be the best choice for a 5th starter, two arms that can stabilize their pen and a OF who may some day hit 30 HRs. They get out from under roughly $30 million in contracts which meets their goal for cost containment.

We get Stanton (DH-OF) and Gordon to play 2nd until Peddy is back and can play consistently. The Sox can roll Gordon at the trade deadline or keep him - no need to sign Nunez. We sign Alex Cobb for 3/$48. We will likely be over the LT as a result. Smith and Thornburg will replace Kelly & Hembree.

It's not at all sensible but as we are going crazy out here in this thread it may actually make sense.

Edit: This is not intended to be a reality post and will receive minimal argumentative support.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,480
Garden City
Where do you all rank the current Sox kids in terms of long-term viability?

As a Yankee fan who watched maybe 25 Sox games last year I would rank them like this. Am I far off?

1) Devers - Needs to work on defense and continue to grow as a hitter. Most likely to stick in the middle of the order at 1b.
2) Betts - Has already proven himself as a dominant outfielder who can swing the bat.
3) Benintendi - Ceiling will only be limited by his ability to hit lefties. It drove me crazy watching a young kid sit against lefties for the first 3 months of his career. They need him long-term and to remove those repetitions seemed very counter-productive to his growth as a hitter.
4) JBJ - Pretty vanilla player
5) Xander - Looked the most lost in the box and most likely to struggle to return to being a productive middle of the order bat.