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Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'm not normally a big PED guy, but I have some questions about the 2017 Reds. Cozart's not the only guy who had a career year in terms of power.

    Either that, or we should consider trying to poach their hitting coach.
     
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    A lot of players around the majors had career years in terms of power, you just wouldn't know it watching the Redsox.
     
  3. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    I think he would be a fantastic addition, but, I'm skeptical that he will be traded. He'll be 32 next year and has a pretty reasonable ($13.7m) contract with another year and then a club option. His batting average was down last but he had his second best OBP (.377) ever.

    [EDIT] Looks like there were some questions about his 2B defense early last year and apparently there is a belief that he can only hit leadoff. He's played a lot of games all over the infield... does anybody have a first hand opinion on his ability to still play 2B and/or 3B?
     
    #153 Yo La Tengo, Oct 28, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2017
  4. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I just think that everyone is expecting Schwarber to be a stud - and thus far he has not been. If he were a catcher, then sure. But he's slashing .222/.329/.471 in his young career with a 30% k-rate.

    If the Cubs think he'll be better going forward then they're better off hanging onto him with Heyward, Russell and an aging Zobrist all below average.

    And where does Baez play when Pedey is back?

    They need to aim higher and get a sure thing if they move Beni - and I'm not even that fan-boyish. JBJ is the guy I'd move if anyone.
     
    #154 grimshaw, Oct 28, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2017
  5. kyaces

    kyaces lurker

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    Cards fan here, Carpenter is a slightly below average 2nd baseman and 3rd baseman defensively. Decent hands but lacks range. He played with a bad shoulder for a large segment of this year which hurt his power and throwing but no surgery is required just rest. He will say it doesn't matter where he hits but the difference is huge as a lead off hitter opposed to anyplace else in the lineup. Doubt he is traded as Cards view him as a core player along with Yadi and Waino.
    Gyrko could be traded as his name was brought up along with others that didn't come up in the organization and play "the Cardinal Way". He is an above average defensive third baseman and average defensive second baseman.
    Also Cards are discussing same names as Red Sox as they need a big middle of the order bat. Names such as Stanton, Martinez and Ozuna.
    Follow the Red Sox also as my daughter is a huge Mookie fan and went to a game in St Louis when Boston was playing.
     
  6. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    What do we see Benintendi's ceiling as? I do think he is one of those players that is more valuable o a team in CF(or RF) than in LF for the Sox. But that could easily play into our plans when we let JBJ go. Regardless, JD Martinez will not be a serviceable LF at that time, so I see him as more of a DH/1B type than anything else.

    Can we compete next year without a big bat addition? Do we want to worry about our ability to sign "the core" long term in a few years? If Price has a great year and opts out, is that a godsend or a disaster? Just take that 30 mil and give it to Sale?
     
  7. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    That's basically another pro of filling Pedroia's spot with a cost controlled and non-FA option...you don't absolutely need an answer to that question going in.

    In the scenario where Baez doesn't end up filling in somewhere else (injuries, not wanting to keep giving a struggling Hanley AB's, ect), or pushing well enough as a first half starter where you could/would then entertain trading off Xander's remaining 1.5 years here to fill another area of need, he adds a quality and higher upside depth piece to the mix coming off the bench.
     
  8. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Right - and they save a little money by not spending it on Nunez, which is fine, but not worthy of a trade including Beni. Chavis may be ready to steal Hanley's ab's by mid season too.
     
  9. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I wouldn't bet on that. His promotion to Portland exposed some significant weaknesses in his approach that he needs to work on. I'm guessing a September call up is more likely when he will debut.

    He should start in AA again and likely stay there through the ASB. Then he'll need to demonstrate his ability to succeed against AAA pitching before the FO should be considering benching or platooing Hanley for him.

    Short of an injury (which is certainly possible but doesn't qualify as stealing ABs) Chavis taking playing time away from Hanley by midseason is either wildly optimistic on Chavis or sadly pessimistic regarding Ramirez.
     
  10. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Saving some money is obviously great too, but again your question is the first thing coming out of Nunez's camp when we sit down and talk contract this winter. Which the Sox really don't have a good answer to. Well, unless you really think we would offer him the full time DH spot to fall back on I guess, and that he himself would actually buy into a concept where his everyday starting role would still be relatively secured as such going forward. Which is reach'y for him at best.

    Point taken on being skeptical over Schwarber though. But like I said it really boils down to whether the Sox think he is going to be a better hitter then Ben10. If they don't then yeah, the trade wouldn't even be worth consideration.
     
  11. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    Another Proposal - risky moves - either Option 1 or Option 2:

    Option 1:
    1a: Trade Pomeranz to the Brewers. This brings down the team salary to about $191m. Featuring the Brewers 6th best prospect Isan Diaz (rank 85) a future ss/2b. Milwaukee is loaded with prospects.

    2a: Trade Sam Travis and a mid-level prospect to Miami for Tazawa ($7m contact) and Justin Bour ($3.5m). Miami gets a 1B in Sam Travis plus gets out of salary. Also that that each year Bour begins his arbitration. And Bour is not an all-star. Therefore there is risk that his bat doesn't produce.

    3a: Sign JD Martinez.

    Sox salary would be roughly $227m.
    -------------------


    Option 2:
    1a: Trade Pomeranz to the Brewers. This brings down the team salary to about $191m. Featuring the Brewers 6th best prospect Isan Diaz (rank 85) a future ss/2b. Milwaukee is loaded with prospects.

    2a: Trade Sam Travis only to Miami for Voloquez ($13m contact) and Justin Bour ($3.5m). Miami gets a 1B plus gets out of salary. Also that that each year Bour begins his arbitration. And Bour is not an all-star. Therefore there is risk that his bat doesn't produce.

    3a: Sign JD Martinez.

    4a: Trade whatever you can get or don't sign Joe Kelly.

    Sox salary would be roughly $229m - $230m. .
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Pomeranz is worth far more than that and Miami could get far better offers for Bour, even with salary included.
     
  13. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I know this is the CRAZY thread, but wouldn't it be simpler to just sign JD Martinez and leave the rest of the roster as is?

    Pomeranz has been worth 3 WAR over each of his past two seasons. The downgrade from Bour (2 WAR) to Sam Travis (?) is probably in the range of 2-3 WAR. So that's a wash, but we have to take on $10m in washed up RP contracts to make it happen?
     
  14. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    That’s....that’s just not crazy. Who let you in here?

    This isn’t the SENSIBLE AND RESPONSIBLE acquisitions and offseason plans MADE WITH FORETHOUGHT thread.
     
  15. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    If they are willing to spend the money, yeah. If not, it's do nothing or make trades.
     
  16. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    How many games does Hanley now play 1st base if you just got JD? You speak of Pomeranz WAR?. How has Hanley's's WAR been over the past 3 years And now with no bench at 1b you think that is okay?
     
  17. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    That would be the easy thing to do. However, it would take all the fun out of the "crazy" thread.
     
  18. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I get it if people are pro GO FOR IT NOW, but none of those highlights there are really deserving to be stressed in relationship to a JD Martinez signing.
     
  19. BJBossman

    BJBossman lurker

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    I am too. But there's a lot of chatter from cardinals fans, which is why I felt the need to bring it up.

    My own skepticism is why I brought it up in this thread and not the "I like bats" thread.
     
  20. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Sure they are, if I’m reading your response correctly. Which I think is getting at the issue of whether signing JD Martinez is sensible and forward-thinking, even though he’ll command a ton of money. I think it is, if the Sox moves basically stop there on the FA market.

    The Red Sox will need a big-power RH bat, even if Mookie takes a step forward again this upcoming season and Devers begins to develop into a power threat at age-21.

    The Sox have a need to plan long-term around some 3-4-5 hitting core. Martinez can be part of that, as well as adding GFIN oomph. Ideally, you’d get hitters’ seasons to develop or bounce back in 2018 to create a high-octane offense.

    Sure, he’ll be expensive, but if there’s nothing on the farm that looks likely to provide a RH balance of contact AND power (sorry, Chavis), then the team has to look at the FA and trade markets.

    And especially if Betts and Bogaerts and Bradley are all less inclined to make longer-term deals to stay in Boston, it makes sense to at least have one middle-of-the-order bat who didn’t just play his rookie season.
     
  21. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    Not sure where to put this..... but I'm wondering what the Catching situation will look like next year. Swihart is out of options but is so far looking great in AZ Fall League so far and should get consideration despite his down year (but really.. . the guy returned from a serious traumatic injury.....).
    Sandy Leon turned back into what we figured he'd be after his crazy 2016 season- a AAAA catcher and will more than likely be that guy from here on out.
    I'd like to see Swihart take Leon's spot as the backup C and occasional DH if he can show something. Could Leon be added to something as sweetener to a trade deal?
     
  22. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Leon has little or no trade value, but he's a perfectly adequate backup C, so if we're confident that Vazquez' 2017 offense isn't entirely a mirage (it's certainly at least a bit of a mirage), it probably makes more sense to trade Swihart.
     
  23. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    The Stanton hype train just got a lot more coal. Miami Herald article:

     
  24. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 lurker

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    Plus let's not forget Sale loves the guy. Think that alone earns him a roster spot
     
  25. smallball

    smallball lurker

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    Conventional wisdom says you need 3 catchers over a season. Who would be #3 then? I feel like in the past few years the FO has traded willy nilly without regard for the larger pic., blocking prospects, creating redundancies, making trades (of pitchers) only to be injury-bit later and needing to make new trades. We're good at catcher. Why fuck with that ... unless it fills a greater need (of a starter or clean-up hitter)?
     
  26. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure if Leon has options or not, but there is no way they carry 3 catchers on the MLB team so they don't have much of a choice.

    He's playing in the Dominican Winter League, not the AFL.
     
  27. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    Prado could definitely replace Young, so taking his salary might give us a shot.
     
  28. smallball

    smallball lurker

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    I mean 3 game-ready catchers; 2 on the MLB roster, one in AAA of course
     
  29. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Vasquez, Leon and Swihart are all out of options. So, something's gotta give.
     
  30. smallball

    smallball lurker

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    Guess it's a dogfight in spring training then. Any chance of keeping 3 on the big team for a month until the inevitable injury to a catcher on another team spikes trade value?
     
  31. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Like I was saying earlier nothing shocking there that they wouldn't be looking to skip right to dumping Ozuna/Bour.

    Gordon shouldn't be a problem, but Prado's contract is going to be a hard dump. Having one of the Ziegler/Tazawa contracts going the other way in the Stanton deal would probably be more ideal.
     
  32. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Not unless they believe Swihart can spell 3rd, 1st and/or LF when he's not catching. It's possible they go into the year with him as the DH (with Hanley at 1st) or starting 1st baseman, but I'm guessing that's very unlikely without him having a sustained run of success against high level pitching first.
     
  33. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    BTW, where are you seeing this? I can't find his numbers anywhere on MLB's AFL pages, nor is there any discussion of him in the SoSH AFL thread.
     
  34. bosox0192

    bosox0192 lurker

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  35. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Exactly what I was thinking. Keep him around until he proves he can't handle MLB pitching and is much less defensively than our other two guys. He's not going to have great trade value right now, regardless of how much some of us think he would. May as well keep him for insurance.
     
  36. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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  37. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

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    What I don't want is the stand pat approach they took in 2017. They replaced Ortiz with Sale but failed to make the true World Series push. That's frustrating as a fan, and the good but not great approach shows a sense of complacency.

    If you're going to rebuild, then do it. If you're going to go for it all, do it. Trying to "just make the playoffs in perpetuity" is not a direction.
     
  38. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    What, in your view, would have constituted "the true World Series push"?
     
  39. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Given the volatile nature of the playoffs, this is probably the only direction worth taking.
     
  40. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Actually, it is. We can demonstrate LOTS of examples where the team that won the World Series wasn't necessarily the "best" team during the season, and, conversely, lots of examples where the team that was the best team all year did NOT win the World Series. Once you reach the playoffs....it's maybe not a TOTAL crapshoot, but it's close.

    If you make the playoffs every year, with every few years getting a legit shot at winning the World Series, that's one hell of a great direction to take your franchise.
     
  41. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    It should be a different thread, but I think this may be changing from what it was 5-10 years ago, with organizations like the Dodgers and Astros focusing not just on stars but on enough depth to keep their roster as fresh as possible for the postseason. I think we're just at the start of this transition.
     
  42. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe going like 14-3 or something in mid-September to salt away the division?
     
  43. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I don't disagree that a stand pat approach here would be a mistake. The lineup construction as a whole is obviously flawed (imo), and needs to be tweaked to better accommodate for the shifting nature of what is now the Homerun Era.

    I do however believe that a lot of people are getting too wrapped up in the now factor, and underestimating just how much of a long term effect handing JD Martinez $180m+ might have on this franchise going forward. This ownership has always made the effort to field a competitive team before Chris Sale got here, and that realistically isn't going to be a trend that gets broken 2 years from now. So for those projecting that we'll take a couple consecutive tier 2 LT hits then get back under completely....that's probably not going to actually happen when we'll already be sitting at roughly the halfway mark on just 3 aging vets (with the extra costs beyond a need to fill out the rest of the MLB roster already factored in). Add in a possible Betts extension, at lets say $25m/per for example purposes, and that potential get back under budget flexibility starts to evaporate in a hurry.

    The Schwarber trades mentioned earlier may not be the answer in themselves, but they are more along the general lines of what this team should be making every effort at doing atm/imo. Upgrading the Bradley and Moreland spots in the lineup obviously won't be as sexy on paper as JDM, but it could/would be enough in my book.
     
  44. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah. Upgrading Bradley’s spot into someone able to hit like .830 OPS and play good CF defense sounds like an absolutely primo plan.

    But who could be that guy? Hopefully, it would be someone club-controlled who is still in his prime hitting years, maybe 27-28 years old.
     
  45. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

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    Replacement for Bradley: Ben10di. Replacing Left field: JDM. Certainly a scenario. Replacing Moreland with Hosmer insufficient but could be one piece. Santana vs. Hosmer - not sure, but probably Hosmer.
     
  46. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    A LF upgrade that can possibly ceiling out even higher works there as well, and hopefully someone that can actually put together 2 consecutive halves without one of them being completely write-off terrible. Or doesn't help lead to a repeat scenario where you find yourself sitting around at the trade deadline and literally drooling over a Lucas freaking Duda for that matter.

    Does that guy exist without spending $30m/per? I really really hope so.
     
  47. Heating up in the bullpen

    Heating up in the bullpen lurker

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    Would Leon get scooped up if the Sox had to DFA him? Would Swihart?
    I recall reading somewhere that PawSox manager Kevin Boles thinks the world of catcher Dan Butler, thinks he'd do well if given a chance.
    As smallball said, you let Swihart and Leon battle for the back-up spot in spring training. Then you either trade or DFA the loser. If it's DFA, and the loser clears, you've got your 3rd string catcher. If it's DFA and the loser gets picked up elsewhere, or if you trade the loser, then you're counting on Dan Butler to be the 3rd string catcher. (Unless you've brought in another).
     
  48. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Leon has already been DFA and outrighted once. They don't get a second bite at that apple if they DFA him again. He'll choose free agency, I'm sure.

    As for Swihart, I don't expect he'd clear waivers unless he is an absolute disaster in spring training.

    Basically, there's little chance they can hold on to all three catchers next year unless they are all on the 25-man roster.
     
  49. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    MikeM, you keep saying Martinez is going to get $180 million but I see no evidence at all given the the free agent and trade market trends for bat-only players. Especially for a late bloomer that was seen as a really good but not elite hitter until this year. I’d be shocked if he got more than $125 million.
     
  50. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I think the Yankees would grab Leon in an instant if they could, immediate upgrade from Romine.

    But also Cashman will likely do something here well before Leon would come free (Alex Avila?), so maybe the timing wouldn't work out.
     

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