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Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    While we're in the early stages of the Red Sox's offseason, there seems to be a lot of discussion about a few conventional offseason plans for the Red Sox going forward. Most of this focuses on signing J.D. Martinez and of course the ongoing managerial search.

    To stimulate discussion, I was thinking it might be interesting to see what people come up with for unconventional offseason plans. By that I mean (generally), riskier or less straightforward approaches to improving the team. That might involve trading valuable players, signing unusual free agents, etc. Given that this is a main board thread, it would be nice if we stuck to ideas with at least some rationale attached. Anyways, have at it.
     
  2. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Is this the "Trade for Giancarlo Stanton" thread?
     
  3. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I mentioned this in another thread and wrote a piece to this effect for dot com the next day, but since this one was started with the explicit purpose of exploring these kinds of ideas...

    Trading JBJ for Kyle Schwarber.

    Sox Pros: Adds significant HR power without much loss (if any) in OBP. After his call up in July, Schwarber looked a lot more like the hitter he was in 2015 before his knee injury. .338 OBP, .565 SLG, 18 HR in 65 games.

    He also will cost less than Bradley and if the Sox are tight on cash to spend in-season for an upgrade, 2-3 million could be significant.

    Sox Cons: Outfield defense gets much worse, and if you DH Schwarber you have to go out and find another outfielder which still likely leads to the defense getting worse. Benintendi in CF would be fine, so they wouldn't be limited to searching for a center fielder, but no matter how you slice it, the outfield defense will take at least a step back.

    And there is risk that Schwarber's early season struggles aren't a fluke or represent a systemic weakness in his approach.

    Cubs Pros: They simply can't keep running Schwarber out there, there isn't a hole to plug at 1st for him, and there is no DH in the NL. JBJ probably represents a net upgrade even with the bats factored in because the Cubs have no choice but to put Schwarber in the field. (His value probably goes up as a DH, so an AL team makes plenty of sense for a trade partner).

    Plus, JBJ is part of the last draft class Theo was at the helm for in Boston, so he'd be getting a player back that he was familiar with and obviously likes (or liked at one point). Almora becomes a 4th outfielder increasing depth.

    Cubs Cons: They traded Eloy Jimenez away in July so their long term answer in left would be a question. Ian Happ seems the best answer, and he could provide an upgrade if last year's debut is any indication, so even the downside is kinda rosy.

    Why it makes sense: The Red Sox simply don't have enough SLG as a team. They have to bring in power, preferably home run power. And while he is a true outcome style hitter, he provides plenty of pop. I think it makes more sense if they are bringing him in to DH long term, but in the short term even if they don't move him there right away, left field defense is a bit less important in Fenway, and the short wall will help with his range issues (which are significant).

    The loss of Papi took this from a good enough offense to one that probably isn't quite there. So replace him with something that at least sort of resembles him in the lineup.
     
    #3 Snodgrass'Muff, Oct 20, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2017
  4. uk_sox_fan

    uk_sox_fan Member SoSH Member

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    Sign Gronk as a power bat 1B-man?

    Or how crazy do you want it?
     
  5. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I presented this in another thread. I think trading for Schwarber and signing JD is the ultimate offseason best case scenario. However, the Cubs need pitching and either Schwarber or Happ is going to probably be dangled for said pitching.
     
  6. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Maybe, though they will have plenty of room to spend money this winter and could address their SP concerns through the free agent market. Maybe they make a play for Darvish. Darvish, Quintana, Lester is a pretty strong 1-2-3.
     
  7. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Is JBJ really a clear upgrade for them? They already have a defense first bat in RF and it's not a vast outfield.

    They had their chances to move him, didn't - because Theo loves him some Schwarber, and now he looks like he's rounding back into form. If I were a Cubs fan, I'd be pissed they moved Schwarber for a different positional player. Russell, Heyward and Zobrist killed them last year.

    If they don't move him for pitching, then I can't imagine they would move him for an offensive downgrade.

    I'm not saying, I wouldn't take him, but I don't think JBJ makes sense for the Cubs.
     
  8. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Have you watched him in the outfield much? He makes statues look rangy.
     
  9. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I wonder what it would take to land Marcell Ozuna. He's about to get very expensive but also wasn't good until this year.
     
  10. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    Move Kimbrel for prospects and sign Holland, if they don’t anticipate resigning him next winter.
     
  11. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    Could I get a "second author" byline at least?
     
  12. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Where did you first post it? I missed it if it was before Monday at 10am when I tossed the idea into the big bat thread. If you posted it first and I missed it, I'm happy to toss a recognition of it into the article.

    Edit: Never mind. I found it.
     
    #12 Snodgrass'Muff, Oct 20, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2017
  13. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    It was an imagine-if comment earlier in that same thread and I'm just giving you a hard time. What I find interesting about the JBJ for Schwarber trade is that I pivot from pro to con every time I think about it, which could mean it is a relatively fair deal. That being said, I don't want Schwarber and JD Martinez unless Hanley can be traded (which I think is super unlikely even with a substantial subsidy from the Sox).
     
  14. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    A hard time well deserved. :)

    I did update the article to hat tip you for suggesting it first. And yeah, I can waffle on it a bit myself. As for Hanley, I can live with the sub par defense at 1st and LF with just better than average defense in CF for a year. I'd be surprised if Hanley's body can hold up to anywhere near a full season starting at the bag, so his option vesting is less of a concern for me in that scenario. And if he stays healthy and it does vest, that's likely a very good thing for the Sox in 2018.
     
  15. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Or just sign holland? Marvell Ozuna is gonna cost way more than we can afford. He is prob a more valuable chip than Stanton
     
  16. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    Trade Pomeranz (due for a raise in his last year of arbitration) for a bat and sign Yu Darvish, with the ancillary benefit of hopefully then having the inside track on Shohei Otani?
     
  17. Harry Hooper

    Harry Hooper Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Do we know that Darvish and Otani get along? IIRC, Nomo while pitching for the Sox drilled Suzuki in the back at his first opportunity in MLB, presumably over some dispute back in Japan.
     
  18. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Does it really matter? Athletes always put aside their differences when they are on the same team.
     
  19. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    I still think Kimbrell should be trade bait. But... would he command more in a deal with a full season left or if the Sox are looking out of it (heavens forbid!!!) at the trade deadline, could he fetch more from a desperate team in need of a bullpen arm (one of the best available!) that would make a short term decision and give up a major prospect....
     
  20. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yes, Darvish is evidently a "close friend and mentor" to Otani, and I believe he took Darvish's number when he joined Hokkaido (same team Darvish pitched for).
     
  21. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think the question isn't whether they have differences, but whether they even know each other well enough that Darvish's presence would have any influence on where Otani goes.
     
  22. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    I've seen them described as "close friends and training partners."
     
  23. soxfan121

    soxfan121 JAG Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Shop Markus "I will not sign a contract extension" Betts and take the best offer (preferably young pitching). Shift Benintendi to CF, JBJ to RF, and sign the best cheap power hitting LF on the market.

    Trade David Price to whatever last place team will take his contract (and likely opt-out), then hire Bob Hohler to assassinate his character and/or reveal an extra marital affair or painkiller addiction.
     
  24. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Don't all the aces wear 18?
     
  25. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Oh, that's a good point and I believe correct. I had read it was a tribute to Darvish, but who knows and I didn't see any good pieces about their relationship on a quick google just now.
     
  26. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Why would we trade Kimbrel? We would have to trade him to a direct competitor no? Seems like shooting ourselves in the foot
     
  27. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    They are both from northern Honshu, not far from each other. Darvish is from Sendai, Otani just slightly north. Sort of like two guys both being from Jersey? I'd imagine young players up there are probably pretty enamored of Darvish and his success.
     
  28. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    I can't gauge the sarcasm meter on this post. I hope it's high.
     
  29. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    What about trying for Bumgarner? SF needs to rebuild its OF and Pen. Offer JBJ, Kelly, Hembree & Pomeranz. Fixes CF, strengthens pen and gives them a good front-line pitcher. I know Pomeranz did well this season but going forward I don't see him as a long-term piece.

    Forgot to mention add JD to left, move Benintendi to CF and either resign Moreland or add Hosmer at 1B. Hanley stays as DH.
     
  30. soxfan121

    soxfan121 JAG Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    7.5/10?

    I mean, no one is taking Price's contract - certainly not a last place team - and I think Bob Hohler has a paying job in which he isn't accusing people of painkiller addiction and/or doing Larry's dirty work.

    As for trading Markus "I will not sign a contract extension" Betts... it's crazy but possibly necessary in the next few years because of what's between the quotes. The haul now, as opposed to a year from FA, would be significantly higher.

    And for the record, Markus would be STUPID to sign an extension before Machado/Harper re-set the market next offseason. But if he ain't willing to talk then, DD is going to have a very difficult situation to unravel.
     
  31. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Getting Freddie Freeman is my dream trade.

    Granted, I think that’s become more difficult now that ERod’s leg is in a cast. But I’d kick the tires on whether Price + Benintendi is enough critical mass to get Atlanta to deal Freeman + Kemp.

    Freeman at 1B, Hanley takes the bulk of DH, Kemp becomes the new LF. That’s your 3-4-5 hitters. Betts and Devers are the lineup cornerstones you build around long-term and start the season hitting 2 and 6, which allows the lineup to be maximized in the short-term to line up with the pitching window provided by Sale and Porcello and Pomeranz/Rodriguez.

    1. SS - R - Bogaerts
    2. RF - R - Betts
    3. 1B - L - Freeman
    4. DH - R - Ramirez
    5. LF - R - Kemp
    6. 3B - L - Devers
    7. 2B - R - Pedroia
    8. C - R - Vazquez
    9. CF - L - Bradley
     
  32. BJBossman

    BJBossman lurker

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    No one is taking Price's deal until he's proven he's healthy. But selling high on him next year, even if the Sox are looking good, isn't the worst move long term.

    As for the off-season. I'll throw something a little different out there just to spitball it (not in any particular order, just how they came out of my head):

    1) Adding both Craig Stammen and Yusmeiro Petit to the bullpen, giving them not one but 2 long men who could be effective, especially if the rotation still has some issues next year.

    2) I'll say trading for Castellanos and making him either the FT 1B or DH.

    3) Buying low on Colin McHugh from houston to fill out the back of the rotation and/or duke it out with Wright (which might make Stammen less of a need if Wright was in the pen).
     
  33. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    Would pairing Workman, JBJ, and maybe a middling prospect for Schwarber and a middling prospect and a PTBNL or cash be enough or is Workman too much of a question mark?
     
  34. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Zero chance bumgarner doesn’t fetch s top 10 prospect if he is traded. Sale got Moncada and kopech why would bumgarner get less?

    We are all in on the next few years. No rebuilding team wants JBJ, kelly or pomeranz. Erod probably has no trade value this offseason. I think we will need to spend big in FA to add big pieces l. We spent our “excess” prospects on sale and kimbrel

    Edit: a bumgarner “ace pitcher” trade includes either benintendi or devers. No way to get anyone valuable through trade market without giving up one of those two. Our best chance of improving is hoping they both hit 30 hrs next year
     
  35. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    Trading him to an NL team in need of a closer wouldn’t shoot us in the foot. He’s going to be extremely expensive to resign, and if you can solve the closer situation for less money by signing Holland, Kimbrel could help fetch some of the assets we need.
     
  36. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    You are most likely 100% correct. Just went A tad crazy.
     
  37. BrooklynDog45

    BrooklynDog45 Member SoSH Member

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    I’d be more interested in resigning Reed than Holland and trading Kimbrel. Reed has rubber arm and has handled Boston and NY.
     
  38. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed, but I'd want to see what that Reed contract would be looking like first. Hard to reliably project where that one ends up atm/imo, at least in terms of overpay potential.

    As I've said in the past and before the rebuild in 2 years concept started trending, I'd prefer we didn't stop at just selling high on Kimbrel though. Xander should go too while he still has multi year and breakout appeal/ trade value. Especially if/when we sign JD Martinez for that matter, since I also don't believe that doing such has to be viewed in an absolute manner where anything beyond should amount to min/maxing upside during our 2 window.

    This core is good enough imo where by filling that middle of the order lineup crater we can then take a paper step backwards at both SS/closer, and still end up fielding a highly competitive team as a whole. Splurge on Martinez for lack of a better alternative, then at least shoot for an end game where up our current pre-arby piece count going forward in those returns on Bradley/Xander/Kimbrel. Which combined with some smart/conservative value shopping in FA to fill the gaps leaves us still shooting for that title, but steering back away from eating any second tier LT hits.
     
  39. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Who plays SS when we trade Xander? We sign a 32 year old Zach Cozart? Who would trade for Xander and what would they even give up for him? Ostensibly, he would have to go to a contender(what rebuilding team trades for an SS with 2 years of control left?) and which "contending team" would he be a huge upgrade at?

    I dont think trading either of JBJ or Xander this offseason is a smart move. I dont see them having huge markets that would return lots of prospects. The "breakout appeal" they have is probably more highly valued within the Sox organization than it would be with any other org.
     
  40. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Workman’s not a question mark at all. Unfortunately, he’s fully established himself as valueless in trade.

    Every single team has at least 4-5 other identical low-90’s RHP middle relief options in their system. Except those guys are due to make less money than Workman, and likely still have an option or two remaining.
     
  41. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Our SS ends up being whatever the best offensive downgrade option to the .746 ops player we fielded last season you can dig up, with the potential trade off that it improves our defense in the process and doesn't cost $7.6m. Or more specifically, the answer to that is essentially less important once JD Martinez and whatever other value bat we sign provides the massive overall upgrade to our lineup even if we have to carry a defense-first SS. Both of which are going to be paid for with the help of that combined $26.5m we freed up while trading off the trio btw, which again plays towards one of the end game goals there of steering away second tier LT hits.

    I'm aware of your feelings about trading any of B's, and what I view to be a fairly narrow outlook on their potential trade value and what would/should define a "contending team" that might have an interest in them. I just don't agree with them. Just like you don't have to agree with mine. But I will say this:

    Two months ago almost nobody was crunching the reality math and seeing an over-the-LT season on the horizon...yet there it is. The same general thing seems to be applying now towards that previously unfathomable idea when that CBA got announced that we would be eating second tier LT hits. People who think we are signing JD Martinez, while not doing any type of budget cutting like I suggest above, are kidding themselves again imo if they don't see it looming.
     
  42. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    In the spirit of going crazy, I've been thinking about scenarios where we deal Bogaerts for a young power hitter, and go glove-first at SS.

    (I doubt this proposal makes the team better. Just making conversation.)

    The problem is that I don't see any teams looking to win within Bogaerts' years of control who lack an entrenched SS of comparable quality to Bogaerts, even considering that fWAR kind of loved Bogaerts (3.2 fWAR, between Tim Beckham and Jean Segura). But play with me for a second.

    The Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Indians, Yankees, Mariners, Giants, Braves, Angels, Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals are all at least pretty well set at SS. Basically, unless the Twins or Brewers are interested, nobody makes much sense.

    Here's an idea: deal Bogaerts to Minnesota for positionless slugger Miguel Sano, in the hopes that as he matures he'll become a 40 HR threat. I don't think that trade is *too* crazy, do you? Bogaerts upgrades the IF defense of the Twins considerably — Polanco isn't much of a SS, and Sano is a DH — admittedly with a bit of a step down offensively. With Matt Duffy coming back from injury, acquire Adeiny Hechavarria (Arb3) from the Rays for A ball pitching of comparable value to what they sent to Miami — Darwinzon Hernandez? (Alternately, if we think he's actually healthy, acquire Duffy and add him to our pile of misfit infielders.)

    So it's Bogaerts and Darwinzon out for Sano and Hechavarria. The resulting lineup trades .050 of SS OPS (and a ton of upside) for better infield defense, and adds a power-hitting DH. We lose years of control at SS, but gain them at DH.

    You could then, if you wanted, also try to staple Hanley to Bradley or Benintendi to acquire a good 1B (if it's Benintendi, that 1B better be *good*), and sign Martinez for about Hanley's AAV.

    You'd end up with something like:

    Betts RF
    Benintendi CF
    Martinez LF
    Devers 3B
    Sano DH
    Bour 1B
    Pedroia 2B
    Vazquez C
    Hechavarria SS

    Again, I'm don't really think any of this makes the team better. It's just a pathway.
     
  43. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Miguel Sano, if traded, could fetch more than Xander. He is basically the Twin version of Devers, with more success, and still under team control until 2022.

    The FA SS are here

    http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/shortstop/

    Nunez is a super sub and Cozart is 32.

    I dont think I have a "narrow view of their trade value", I am just struggling to find actual destinations for both JBJ and Xander. What would be a "valuable" return for Xander? There is no way the Twins are trading Sano for Xander.
     
  44. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    I've definitely worked out Bogaerts trade proposals in my head. I think his market will be much stronger than Bradley's (for example) specifically because of the lack of free agent options. The harder part of dealing Bogaerts is finding a team with decent value to send back in return. If it weren't for past history, I could see a deal with the Padres involving Wil Myers -- already looking like a DH -- and a reliever (Hand?).

    The ballsier part of that deal would be signing Cozart to a deal that he wants -- at least Justin Turner money -- and that assumes that the Reds don't extend a QO or even extend him. If not, I suppose the Sox could roll with Marrero and hope defense carries the day.
     
  45. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    But the Padres are terrible, and are at least two years away from competing. Why wouldnt they trade Myers and Hand for prospects. Also, one of their top prospects is a SS. Why not just call him up or keep Aybar as a placeholder?
     
  46. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Generally speaking, I'll say there same thing now that I said when people were questioning why the Yankees would sign Chapman last winter.

    The contender bar is set pretty low nowadays with that second wild card spot, and the strictly building to lose until you *might* get the chance years down the development road to look great on paper concept is outdated. It doesn't take the same enormous reach it used to for any team feeling good about their core to conclude that with a little off-season tinkering that isn't killing their budget, and the right breaks going their way during the season, they might just give themselves a chance to step up and snag it.

    As far as cost controlled players go, and regardless whether we are the buyer or seller, I really don't write anybody off the potential suitor list anymore just based on an outside perception of where they currently stand.
     
    #46 MikeM, Oct 21, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2017
  47. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    Trade Jackie Bradley to the Texas Rangers. One of the Rangers weaknesses is outfield defense. Trade him and get prospect Willile Calhoun. SOx will get more than Willie?


    Flip Willie Calhoun and other sox prospects for Marcell Ozuna.
    That is step 1.

    Step 2-
    Trade one of either Kelly or Thornburgh and if need be one 2nd tier reliever for prospect(s). Rangers, or Mets or Twins or even Mariners or Nats. Getting best youth you can,
    Flip this and whatever remains from the JBJ trade and whatever is left from all of this and trade it for Bour.

    Now you have a lineup vs righties of Beni, Betts, Bour, JD, Devers, Ozuna, Xander, Vazq, Holt (Pedroia may never come back useful in 2018. You make this move because you can't trust the overall bottom order hitting of Vazq, JBJ (if you dont trade him), Holt and Moreland (if you sign him) potentially 4 bad hitters. And btw, Hanley is platoon for Bour.
    ------------
    Another option is to get Bour with the sox packaging their farm if they can without trades or try to trade the reliever(s) I mentioned above and package all of that to get Bour . And sign JD.
     
  48. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Thornburg literally has zero value and I doubt Kelly has much either. Guys like Kelly are dime a dozen and Thornburg is damaged good.
     
  49. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    the problem with flipping willie calhoun and other prospects for Marcell Ozuna is that that prospect package will need to include Devers for the Marlins to even listen. I would argue that a half season of Darvish in a playoff push is probably more valuable than JBJ. The Rangers are closer to a complete teardown than to tweaking for a playoff run.

    Shit, the yankees can offer Clint Frazier and some low top 10 prospect of theirs for Ozuna and that would be a way more appealing offer for the Marlins. Some of the trade proposals being offered up here assume that no other team will be competing for these assets. If Ozuna is on the trade block, loads of teams will be lining up, and their packages will be way more appealing than "Willie Calhoun and others".
     
  50. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I still fail to fully understand the supporting logic that goes into these trades targeting Ozuna and Bour.

    So people don't have the Marlins trading Stanton and that monster contract hanging over their small market heads this winter, which mostly seems centered around a belief of him being the guy they want to build their franchise around. Yet the best way to project them doing that is by trading off a couple of great cost-controlled pieces around him and already in place for his prime years, which somehow doesn't end up defeating the whole purpose of keeping that contract around?

    I get the always present obsession with the fairly young, great fit for our own needs, and reasonably priced with some control trade possibility....but that guy certainly isn't coming out of Miami this winter imo.
     

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