Rudy Pemberton said:
Especially since he'd be no risk, presumably cost a lot less than $10 mil and be eligible for draft pick compensation next year for whatever team gets him.
When is the realistic Add/Drop deadline for this team?
- Thread starter ivanvamp
- Start date
Especially since he'd be no risk, presumably cost a lot less than $10 mil and be eligible for draft pick compensation next year for whatever team gets him.
MakMan44 said:
Dammit. My mistake.
In any case, the other points still stand. Since he's a Boras client another team wouldn't really have a leg up on signing him for next year, but they'd get a guy who is a very good starting SS for a reasonable price.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Thing is, though, most of the contending teams have pretty good shortstops. Detroit might be interested if they're nervous about handing the SS keys to Suarez for the stretch run and playoffs. Maybe Miami, conceivably Milwaukee if Segura hasn't pulled out of his offensive funk by the deadline. I can't think of too many others, can you?
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
1996-1997? We traded away Jamie Moyer for Darren Bragg and then Heathcliff Slocumb for Tek and Lowe in 1997.
We were a playoff team in 98, 99, 03, 04, 05, 07, 08, 09 and 13. In every other year, aside from 2012, we were in the hunt relatively late into the season. Even in 2012, we were about a .500 team until August.
I don't really see them getting anything of value for Drew. Teams passed on signing him when they had to forfeit a pick. For some teams it wouldn't have been a first rounder or even a comp pick. How much would a team give up in July for a half season of Drew at around $5m without getting a comp pick next year?
glennhoffmania said:
The only type of team that would do this is one that's seeking a playoff spot and has a glaring hole at SS. Detroit has the money and the hole, even if they didn't want him initially. $5 million and a mid-level prospect for a chance to avoid the play-in game? They'd think about it. Injuries, of course, could change the entire landscape.
E5 Yaz said:
Sure, I was thinking of an injury situation as the best bet to get anything for Drew. However, while Detroit could obviously be posturing, this is the latest entry on Suarez' CBS player page:
If Suarez gets hurt or falls apart then things clearly could change. If Reyes or Hardy or Simmons go down, the market opens up. Barring that I don't see a team giving up anything of value for Drew.
Stitch01 said:
Let's play this out for a minute. Say they have to eat a portion of his remaining salary and get back a B-/C+ prospect. Was that a good return on the investment?
If you're talking about Drew, I'm not sure why the so-called return-on-investment matters. The scenarios with Drew:glennhoffmania said:
1.) The team plays itself into contention. At that point, we keep him; we've already spent the money, and he could very well be more valuable playing a good defensive SS for this team than what he would get back in a trade.
2.) The team is out of contention. At that point, Drew's value is simply to hold the fort at SS for year, regardless of his OPS. The low level prospect he returns could be more valuable than having him play SS every day.
The money is spent already, and it does not carry over into 2015.
Willingness to deal Koji or Lester aside, it makes sense that having 2 wild card spots leads fewer teams to be buyers (and therefore more sellers, if you buy into such a dichotomy); a wild card playoff spot is worth less than in prior years. Under the prior playoff format, the wild card winner would be automatically playing in a division series and may have a 40-60 percent chance of making the ALCS. In the new format, a wild card gives one a ~40-60 percent chance of playing in a division series, and therefore a ~16-36 percent chance of making the ALCS.Tyrone Biggums said:
lexrageorge said:
The point of the question was that it was money that didn't need to be spent on Drew. So if when all is said and done that $10m investment turns into a fringy prospect I think it's reasonable to ask whether the move was worth it.
And I don't understand this idea that the money doesn't carry over (not picking on you- other people have talked about this). If the 2014 season ends and that $10m isn't spent does Henry forfeit it? There's no reason it couldn't be used for something more productive next year.
Precisely. Several factors (the new CBA deal, more knowledgeable FO's, the new wild card format) limit the value in making blockbuster deals at the trade deadline. I think some are overestimating how much value an opposing team gains in a two-month rental, and the same people are expecting more in a trade than an opposing team would be willing to deal.smastroyin said:
I don't think it needs to be a 5-10 guy. They should intentionally shop him for as many Rijo/Margot/Callahan types as they can get instead of trying to get some AA/AAA guy within close proximity to the majors. Guys who aren't demanding a 40 man roster spot for the next couple years, would likely land in the early teens to early 20's in the Sox current system but with high ceilings to grow into. Get two or three of those guys for Peavy, one for Badenhop, one for one of Breslow/Miller/Capuano. That would up the talent pool in the low minors quite nicely.smastroyin said:
The market will likely be much more willing to trade possible 2017 contributors for mid-tier help than they are to trade 2015 contributors. While there is greater risk involved that risk can be mitigated through the quantity of guys brought in. Basically, go looking for guys the Sox really wanted in the draft or international signings in the last 24 months (now that we're past the draft 2013 draftees can be traded) who wound up on currently competitive teams with needs that match the Red Sox. Who knows, maybe they can snake a 2013 2nd or 3rd rounder they wish they'd gotten. It's so close to that draft that a deal like that borders on trading for a draft pick.
Also, I'd say Badenhop carries a lot more value than Thornton. He isn't a LH specialist, he's a ground ball inducer, and his FIP is much better than Thornton's. Thornton was a full blown specialist, Badenhop is a solid middle reliever who can pitch to either side of the plate and induced ground balls. Will he bring back a king's ransom? Of course not. But I think he'd be enough to get another team's Manuel Margot. There are a lot of old for their level guys throughout the low A to AA ranks that this team could discard without batting an eyelash, cull that chaff and get some guys with real upside to take their playing time.
Are you arguing for or against deadline deals with that one?Hank Scorpio said:
I could see trying to trade Peavy and Breslow, as they are unlikely to be resigned and the Red Sox seemingly have at least as good other options in Workman and De La Rosa. Other than that, they'd be morons not to resign Gomes, Lester, and Miller and they don't have any realistic options to AJP because Vazquez has been terrible and Salty is still in Miami due to the fact that they thought Vazquez would be ready.
Welcome to the new SoSH: Where small sample sizes are regularly used to trump entire seasons of work!BosRedSox5 said:
kieckeredinthehead said:
Yeah, it looks like Plympton is saying the exact opposite of what they intended, where the small sample size is his 2014 slump and the entire seasons of work are 2008-2013.
34 - 41 after today, on pace to finish 73 - 89, I think we're at the point where selling looks like the most likely option when the deadline approaches.
I would actually think they would explore trading Miller. Pending free agent lefty can score a little bit in trade return. Plus they also have Britton and Rich Hill in AAA who could step in immediately. But I wouldn't be upset if Miller stayed and was resigned. Mujica is moveable as his numbers are deceiving due to his horrid April. Koji if offered a top prospect or two I would move. Otherwise he's a solid candidate to get the QO.Plympton91 said:
AJP should fetch an okay return. Nothing earth shattering mind you but there are some contenders that could use him. Now there is a scenario in which I could see the Sox making this trade pretty shortly but still being able to contend.
Sox Trade Peavy, AJP, Miller
LA trades Joc Peterson Zach Lee.
I think that helps to reload the guns quite a bit while giving the Sox an excuse to keep Workman or RDLR up on the team. Lee would be added to Pawtucket obviously. Peterson would be the real get out of this deal as he is very blocked in the LA system.
Although the other option would be to trade the there aforementioned Sox players for Kemp and have the Dodgers take on the salary....(ducks)
Tyrone Biggums said:
I really don't think the Dodgers would trade a hot hitting outfielder with great plate discipline that plays all three outfield positions and a guy many people (optimistically) consider to be a future front of the rotation starter for an aging catcher, a half blind right handed pitcher and a left handed reliever. Sure, they've got a big hole at catcher but Peavy is totally useless for their rotation and while Miller > Maholm that would be a pretty silly trade for the Dodgers to make. Ned Colletti isn't a very good GM, but he's not retarded.
Trade suggestions are really hard because we don't honestly have a clue what GMs are looking for and how they rate minor league players. We're also all Red Sox fans and tend to look for trades that greatly improve our team while doing little for the other team.
What a fucked up year. Impossible to make any solid predictions.
Put it this way - if the Red Sox had gone .500 during their 10-game losing streak (assume winning once against Jays and once against Rays), the AL East standings would be like this right now:
Toronto 42-36 @ .538
Baltimore 40-35 @ .533 = 0.5 gb
NYY: 39-36 @ .520 = 1.5 gb
Boston: 40-37 @ .519 = 1.5 gb
Tampa: 30-48 @ .384 = 12 gb
and be 1.5 games out (1 in the loss column).
Is it out of the question to presume that over the next half of the season the losing streak won't be equalized by 5 more wins than the competition? Maybe it is, I dunno.
Put it this way - if the Red Sox had gone .500 during their 10-game losing streak (assume winning once against Jays and once against Rays), the AL East standings would be like this right now:
Toronto 42-36 @ .538
Baltimore 40-35 @ .533 = 0.5 gb
NYY: 39-36 @ .520 = 1.5 gb
Boston: 40-37 @ .519 = 1.5 gb
Tampa: 30-48 @ .384 = 12 gb
and be 1.5 games out (1 in the loss column).
Is it out of the question to presume that over the next half of the season the losing streak won't be equalized by 5 more wins than the competition? Maybe it is, I dunno.
geoduck no quahog said:
The other way to look at it is that they have to go 55-30 the rest of the way to win 90 games. The chances that the AL East is won by a team with less than 90 wins are pretty low. Hell, 90 wins wouldn't have won a wild card spot last year in the AL, so even if you think there's a decent chance at 90 being enough to take the division, it's likely the best path left open to them for a playoff spot. Are you willing to bet on a .647 winning percentage from here on out?
I think this team is pretty well sunk and the Add/Drop point, or cut off point for making a decision about whether this team is a buyer or a seller is fast approaching.
Are we past the Add point already? I can see getting hot and being in the race enough that its not worth trading guys like Drew or Miller for semi-scraps, but any chance the Sox are going to want to move future assets to boost this years team at this point?
I think it can be pretty well understood now that this offense as currently constructed is in contention for the WORST in the league. The FO has made it pretty clear they don't want to bring in long term money or trade from their prospect depth so I find myself before every game asking What would be better to prompt some action from the FO a win or a loss ?
I think the "complexity" of the offensive problems is very overstated. They have a gaping hole in OF production and Papi Pedroia and X are all performing below what they need.
Far more complex is what the FO does if they decide to sell. Lester is asset number 1 with Koji number 2 . The other parts like AJP Gomes Peavy and such can be made available but they offer very limited upside to other teams.
Additionally for an Ownership group that has demonstrated they care deeply about public relations trading Lester and Koji before the All Star break would be putting up the white flag on the season very very early.
In sum I think they sit on their hands till the ASB then say "See we don't have enough this year we're going with the kids". It'll be understandable but Pedroia and Ortiz are getting no younger. Don't know why they didn't suck it up and pay for a bat. Sigh.
I think the "complexity" of the offensive problems is very overstated. They have a gaping hole in OF production and Papi Pedroia and X are all performing below what they need.
Far more complex is what the FO does if they decide to sell. Lester is asset number 1 with Koji number 2 . The other parts like AJP Gomes Peavy and such can be made available but they offer very limited upside to other teams.
Additionally for an Ownership group that has demonstrated they care deeply about public relations trading Lester and Koji before the All Star break would be putting up the white flag on the season very very early.
In sum I think they sit on their hands till the ASB then say "See we don't have enough this year we're going with the kids". It'll be understandable but Pedroia and Ortiz are getting no younger. Don't know why they didn't suck it up and pay for a bat. Sigh.
I think it obviously depends on who's being floated around. They're definitely not trading for complimentary pieces, but picking up a guy like Tabata who won't cost anything but money might happen. Other than that I doubt there's going to be any significant additions to the team. They have a few guys in AAA that could use some time in the bigs to see what they have like Brentz once he's healthy and Vazquez.Stitch01 said:
Sure, I could see adding someone marginal that costs nothing or (super low probability) a major bolt from the blue trade to get a young elite player who is going to contribute for multiple years. I think we're already at the point where an Iglesias for Peavy type young player for help this year trade is off the table.
Right now, the division leading Blue Jays are on pace for 89 wins.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Any ideas on the "bat" they should pay for? Implying a reluctance to spend given this team's payroll is an implication that needs better support.
I don't see a major trade developing prior to the All Star Break; there's no rush to trade a Lester, a Koji, an AJP, or a Peavy. Better to have these guys around a few more weeks and maximize the return than just sell off for peanuts now. Fortunately, the team doesn't (or hopefully doesn't) worry about "windows" for their players.
This is not last year. I know I said this upthread but none of these AL East teams are any good, and none of them are threatening to be any good right now. Any one of them could do what the Jays did in May (good) or what the Red Sox did in May (bad).Snodgrass'Muff said:
Just what evidence is there that a 90 win team is coming out of the AL East this year? BP playoff odds thinks the Blue Jays are an 86 win team. Their projected standings think the Red Sox will be the best of the division (along with the Rays - not Toronto, NY or Baltimore) in the 2nd half, but still not very good. So the Sox aren't going to go 55-30, but it sure looks to me like they could be in it at 50-35, and by "in it" I mean for the division. 50-35 is nothing more than a little better baseball overall, and maybe a flukey/lucky 10 game winning streak between now and October 1.
I will be surprised if any AL East team gets to 90 wins, or maybe even 88 or 89 wins. This division has not set up this way since the late 80's, and then maybe briefly in 2000-2001.
The winter is long, I cannot see why they would give up in this scenario. I could see them improving with acquisitions and kids. I'm still hoping for one of those "4 mediocrities all losing key games down the stretch" Septembers, as that can be really fun, especially if your team is one of them.
ivanvamp said:
AJP is owed a pretty good chunk of change and isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball, nor has a good track record of clubhouse success
Peavy: Just got shelled, hasn't won since May, and has a 5 ERA
Capuano: Probably getting DFAed/phantom DLed to make room for a pitcher. Completely replaceable
Gomes: Only can hit lefties
I get the idea that people are looking to sell. but seeing what we can get for the last 4 guys on the roster is a waste of time. Why would we get semi useful pieces for any of them, when they themselves aren't useful? (Breslow is the only one who could bring back, say a C prospect)
If we are having serious conversations about moving players. it's Miller, Koji and Lester. Not Gomes and AJP
Just to throw this out there: I hesitate to bring up the Drew thing again given how much it's been discussed, but it sure looks like the Brewers could use him given how generally not good Segura has been since his excellent first half last year. The problem, of course, is that the Brewers don't have much by way of trade chips.
ivanvamp said:
It's June 25th. It's getting late. They're not going to have a good two week stretch, they've pretty much already shown they're not capable of doing that.
I'm fine if they start to sell off assets now. The team simply isn't good. Last year was amazing, might as well enjoy that run and load up for next year. This year's going nowhere.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I am fine with this too. Last year was amazing. Bought a lot of grace from me for this year. Re-tool, use the rest of this season to learn what you need to learn regarding prospects, etc., get squared away for 2015. There is plenty of talent in the organization to be very good again, very quickly, IMO (some of that talent can be used to trade for what they need).
Papelbon's Poutine said:
Absolutely. Peavy probably wouldn't bring a lot back, but he should be on the block. Starting pitching depth is adequate for the rest of the year, even with the potential for injuries. A couple of the relievers would have some value (Miller, Badenhop, maybe Breslow, Mujica, or Capuano), although I would want some of these guys back in 2015. And I don't see why we couldn't just ship AJP off and work with Ross, Vasquez, and Butler for the rest of the year. These aren't blockbuster deals, but would, as you say, clear some dead weight.
After a winnable game tomorrow, the Sox have 13 of the next 16 at home, with Houston the 3 road games.
That's a great shot to see if they can get back in this, and whether they make enough hay will likely decide their buyer/seller fate.
That's a great shot to see if they can get back in this, and whether they make enough hay will likely decide their buyer/seller fate.
Three against the Cubs who have a worse record than we do, four against the White Sox who have one more win than we do, plus the three against Houston who has a worse record than we do.bosockboy said:
We have KC and Toronto after the break. Being a hell of a lot closer to--or even at or above--.500 would be a beautiful thing.
Alright. I will push back my sellers date to after those 16 games to reacess. I'm back in 100%.