When is the realistic Add/Drop deadline for this team?
- Thread starter ivanvamp
- Start date
The AL East is perhaps the weakest division in the AL now. The Blue Jays have already started their summer descent, and the Yankees and Orioles have as many holes as Swiss Cheese. The division is wide open, and the playoffs are a crap shoot. The 2nd WC might be had with as few as 88 W.
There is no way this team should wave the white flag at anypoint (unless there is a flurrry of injuries like 2010) and not try and get better. Of all the teams in the AL, this team has the most financial flexibility and enough prospects to get better by the trade deadline. They also have some players underperforming who may be due for positive regression.
Trading season is poised to begin. Red Sox should look to add.
There is no way this team should wave the white flag at anypoint (unless there is a flurrry of injuries like 2010) and not try and get better. Of all the teams in the AL, this team has the most financial flexibility and enough prospects to get better by the trade deadline. They also have some players underperforming who may be due for positive regression.
Trading season is poised to begin. Red Sox should look to add.
The Astros have multiple on the cusp prospects that would be #2 in the Red Sox system.
What holes do the Orioles have?
What holes do the Orioles have?
I'm with this. They're really looking as if they added one more .800ish OPS bat they could suddenly turn a few weeks in a row playing .750 and they'd be right there and competitive with anyone.BosRedSox5 said:
With the emergence of both RDLR and Workman, they need to make a figure out which two or three of their other mL Pawtucket arms they can put together to make a trade.
If this is a bridge year then you sell what isn't in your long term plans at any position you ahve a rookie ready to go, to find out what you have.
Cecchini, Webster/ RDLR/ Workman etc, give rope to the kids (Bradley) etc.
Can Taz close that kind of thing.
If they work out you might stay in contention anyway. If not, great you know what holes and assets you have.
Cecchini, Webster/ RDLR/ Workman etc, give rope to the kids (Bradley) etc.
Can Taz close that kind of thing.
If they work out you might stay in contention anyway. If not, great you know what holes and assets you have.
kieckeredinthehead said:
Yes good point. That team really should have been MUCH better than what they were. This team…. I am not sure about.
Rudy Pemberton said:
I agree on Peavy. He was worth getting last year but I don't think he helps this team that much. For a playoff contender, he could fill an important role, especially with this much time left in the season. He is a "veteran presence" in the rotation, after all, that playoff contenders often crave. I don't think he brings back a ton, but as you said, Rudy, there's no need for him on the Sox at this point. Keep RDLR and Workman up.
The 2012 team finished up the year with an 18-42 stretch after the Punto trade. This team's nowhere near that bad.ivanvamp said:
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
The 2012 team was really two teams. One was the team that never got going resulting in the Punto trade; it was a teaser team. Crawford, Gonzo, Ortiz, Beckett, Lester were going to put it together/recover from injuries and go on a run. Any day now. Any day now. The second team was the post trade team, which basically announced it wasn't going to compete that year. Podsednik (.647 OPS) and Loney (.574 OPS) were the new norm.
Conflating the two and ignoring the FA signings at the end of 2012 is what led so many to not expect 2013.
Conflating 2013 with the current crew is what is leading so many to think they're one batter away from solving this.
(edit - posting as an extension of your point)
Rovin Romine said:
Yes, agreed all around. At one point the 2012 team was 43-37, or something close to that. To this day I firmly believe if the Sox had fired Valentine on that day and installed Bogar as manager, that team would not have imploded. They had talent, but that talent combined with the ragingjackassery of a manager they all detested made for a toxic mix which undermined the season. Once they made the Punto trade, the Sox essentially fielded a minor league team the rest of the year.
This team can't hit. Too many guys regressed from their excellent seasons last year. And the lack of hitting in "clutch" situations is galling and consistent, which tells me they may well be pressing too much to try to turn this thing around. It's frustrating.
+1.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
11th in the AL in OPS and 14th in runs scored. As you stated, too many regressions from last season, plus too much futility from the new guys aside from Bogaerts and Brock Holt. Overall, while not as good as last season, their pitching has been better than average, and would be "good enough" had their bats not fallen asleep.
The team has 2 choices: First, make hard decisions on who to retain for 2015 and who to sell off. For all I care, they can get rid of the Peavy's and the Pierzynski's and even the Gomes's if they can get something in return. Contrary to popular opinion, selling now by shedding some of the vets does not mean tanking in 2015.
The other choice is to listen to Cafardo and empty the farm to find a middling outfield bat to make the team "exciting".
IMO, the add/drop is about a month away; the trade market usually heats up sometime after the All Star Break anyway. Unless something real compelling comes along that helps them now and in 2015, I suggest the team hang tight and try to ride it out for the next 30 days.
I've thought things over.
As a general point, we're 7 games under .500 with 93 games left to play. Even if we got hot, it looks like we'd be playing for the wildcard with the Angles, Baltimore, and whomever.
Not to be a naysayer, but for this team to raise its play to that of a legitimate contender, we'd have to:
a) suffer no key injuries,
b) have three of the Peavy, Doubront, Workman, RDLR, Buchholz, ? group solidify the back end of the rotation without absorbing too many bad starts to "adjust" or "get their feel back" or whatever.
c) have at least 2 of the 3 OF produce at the plate (maybe mitigated by not having JBJ suck quite so much),
d) have at least one of the C/SS spot produce at the plate.
Big picture, I think that's the bare minimum for a "roaring back" club, and even so that level of improvement still gives us two "meh" spots in the lineup - C and JBJ. I assume we're stuck with our current Cs and current CF, so practically this means we'd need a Nava/Gomes resurgence coupled with Holt saying hot. We'd also need Drew to play at his near peak, or failing that, hope for WMB to come back and displace X back to SS. The biggest potential player performance "swing" factors seem to be Nava, Drew, WMB, Buchholz, RDLR, Doubront, Workman. I don't expect significant additional improvement from Peavy, X, or JBJ or Sizemore. Holt will probably cool off at some point. I don't see any immediate relief in terms of position players from the minors.
It's possible they can still contend, but they need a lot of things to break correctly for them, and it has to happen sooner rather than later, especially if they're playing for the WC. It's one thing to catch a division leader (they can always stumble or suffer a key injury), but it's another to catch 2 or 3 teams vying for the WC. It will be especially difficult if the team tries to work out player problems (particularly SP) on the major league level. I'm not sure what options they have, but they're already in the hole and so have burnt up much of their "maybe this will pan out" chances.
I'm oddly a hair more optimistic than I was when I began typing this post. They play the Twins 3, Athletics 4, Mariners 3, Yankees 3, Cubs 3, Orioles 3, White Sox 4 and Astros 3 before the ASB. 26 Games. I'm not a math guy but the Astros, Cubs and White Sox are all at the bottom of their divisions, and the Twins and Mariners are basically .500 clubs. After the break, Royals, Jays, Rays, Jays. 13 games before the July 31 trading deadline.
I'm not sure of the individual match ups (favorable or not to our starters, handedness of opposing starters, etc.), but IF the Sox are just snakebitten, and If they can get some immediate results out of Nava et. al., hitting the AS break at .500 is difficult but possible. To get there, they have to play .500 ball against the Twins and Athletics and win all of the series from the Yanks on out. A tall order, but possible, given sweep possibilities against the worse teams. After the AS break, they get a chance to eat into the Jay's lead before the deadline (and/or hit .500 before the deadline.)
So basically, I think the season depends on beating up weaker teams before the AS break and possibly making a good showing against the Jays during their first series after. If not, the Sox sell prior to the deadline. So, to put it another way, it's likely the next 26 games pretty much are the season. 5 trips through the rotation.
***
Caveat - the Sox may not be classic "sellers" if they're planning on to Lester - most likely they'll thin the bullpen if they're selling at the deadline. So it's possible that all of the things that might allow the club to radically improve could occur close to or post-deadline (JBJ morphs into an .800 OPS hitter, WMB gets back on track.) In that kind of scenario, selling a couple of bullpen arms might not actually cripple the club. And we have a bunch of arms in AAA. Uehara is a tough call though.
As a general point, we're 7 games under .500 with 93 games left to play. Even if we got hot, it looks like we'd be playing for the wildcard with the Angles, Baltimore, and whomever.
Not to be a naysayer, but for this team to raise its play to that of a legitimate contender, we'd have to:
a) suffer no key injuries,
b) have three of the Peavy, Doubront, Workman, RDLR, Buchholz, ? group solidify the back end of the rotation without absorbing too many bad starts to "adjust" or "get their feel back" or whatever.
c) have at least 2 of the 3 OF produce at the plate (maybe mitigated by not having JBJ suck quite so much),
d) have at least one of the C/SS spot produce at the plate.
Big picture, I think that's the bare minimum for a "roaring back" club, and even so that level of improvement still gives us two "meh" spots in the lineup - C and JBJ. I assume we're stuck with our current Cs and current CF, so practically this means we'd need a Nava/Gomes resurgence coupled with Holt saying hot. We'd also need Drew to play at his near peak, or failing that, hope for WMB to come back and displace X back to SS. The biggest potential player performance "swing" factors seem to be Nava, Drew, WMB, Buchholz, RDLR, Doubront, Workman. I don't expect significant additional improvement from Peavy, X, or JBJ or Sizemore. Holt will probably cool off at some point. I don't see any immediate relief in terms of position players from the minors.
It's possible they can still contend, but they need a lot of things to break correctly for them, and it has to happen sooner rather than later, especially if they're playing for the WC. It's one thing to catch a division leader (they can always stumble or suffer a key injury), but it's another to catch 2 or 3 teams vying for the WC. It will be especially difficult if the team tries to work out player problems (particularly SP) on the major league level. I'm not sure what options they have, but they're already in the hole and so have burnt up much of their "maybe this will pan out" chances.
I'm oddly a hair more optimistic than I was when I began typing this post. They play the Twins 3, Athletics 4, Mariners 3, Yankees 3, Cubs 3, Orioles 3, White Sox 4 and Astros 3 before the ASB. 26 Games. I'm not a math guy but the Astros, Cubs and White Sox are all at the bottom of their divisions, and the Twins and Mariners are basically .500 clubs. After the break, Royals, Jays, Rays, Jays. 13 games before the July 31 trading deadline.
I'm not sure of the individual match ups (favorable or not to our starters, handedness of opposing starters, etc.), but IF the Sox are just snakebitten, and If they can get some immediate results out of Nava et. al., hitting the AS break at .500 is difficult but possible. To get there, they have to play .500 ball against the Twins and Athletics and win all of the series from the Yanks on out. A tall order, but possible, given sweep possibilities against the worse teams. After the AS break, they get a chance to eat into the Jay's lead before the deadline (and/or hit .500 before the deadline.)
So basically, I think the season depends on beating up weaker teams before the AS break and possibly making a good showing against the Jays during their first series after. If not, the Sox sell prior to the deadline. So, to put it another way, it's likely the next 26 games pretty much are the season. 5 trips through the rotation.
***
Caveat - the Sox may not be classic "sellers" if they're planning on to Lester - most likely they'll thin the bullpen if they're selling at the deadline. So it's possible that all of the things that might allow the club to radically improve could occur close to or post-deadline (JBJ morphs into an .800 OPS hitter, WMB gets back on track.) In that kind of scenario, selling a couple of bullpen arms might not actually cripple the club. And we have a bunch of arms in AAA. Uehara is a tough call though.
Maybe I'm missing it - but the difference now to me is that you don't have anyone on the top of the division threatening to win 100 games, and that makes all the difference. As long as they remain a 20-7 run away from leading the division, there is no add/drop date.
It is entirely possible that 85 wins takes this division. I think they can win 85 games - I doubt they can win 90 games - but I'm not convinced anybody else in that division can win 90 games either (Toronto's D3 at BP's Projected Standings has them at .523 - they are no juggernaut).
This year has a '72 AL East/'73 NL East feel to it - I can see 4 pretty lousy teams coming down the stretch such that "he who gets hot last" is the winner. Can you then steal playoff games with two good starters? Of course you can. It's just ugly to watch right now, and might stay that way until September.
It is entirely possible that 85 wins takes this division. I think they can win 85 games - I doubt they can win 90 games - but I'm not convinced anybody else in that division can win 90 games either (Toronto's D3 at BP's Projected Standings has them at .523 - they are no juggernaut).
This year has a '72 AL East/'73 NL East feel to it - I can see 4 pretty lousy teams coming down the stretch such that "he who gets hot last" is the winner. Can you then steal playoff games with two good starters? Of course you can. It's just ugly to watch right now, and might stay that way until September.
lexrageorge said:
Especially since none of the guys you mention is under contract for 2015 anyway.
Rovin Romine said:
But being the defending champions and the Boston Red Sox, our calculations are not as cold. Selling someone like Koji really hurts the quality of our 2014 club and the chemistry of the 2014 club, and quite possibly the 2015 club if it reduces our chances to re-sign him. Selling someone like Lester has us bail prior to the Scherzer accompanied market taking shape when he would like to be in Boston if the dollars make it possible.
Trading a middle reliever (a position of strength for us, and historically a place where teams overpay) is a great idea, because whatever hypothetical run we can go on to get to the playoffs can be just as likely without one of them. Trading AJP if there were somehow a market sure beats an outright release that I would consider if Vasquez ever gets hot. Dropping Drew or Middlebrooks and getting something in return can be viewed as just uncrowding a crowded place. Finding a taker for Peavy who is still living in the past would be fine, because the replacement is likely to be just as competent with Workman and RDLR. But none of these moves are white flag, blow it up, moves. They are all creatively improve the team for the future without any huge impact on our ability to keep trying to get to the playoffs.
And while our chances of making up six games and leapfrogging everybody but Tampa really aren't very good, our chances of moving up a little bit and being in contention into September are, and just like all the playoff teams who fail to win the World Series, that has real value in attracting free agents, developing young players, and being entertaining to the audience in the entertainment industry (indirectly impacting future revenues even if only minimally).
So I am very open and expect we can make some moves that have positive longer term impacts, but only where they don't severely impact our small hopes of competing over the second half of this season.
I would love to keep Koji on a year-to-year or 2 year deal, if possible. He has been as close to "lights-out" as anyone I have ever watched close. I love his numbers, his filth and his enthusiasm for the game. I'd hate to speculate who would take his place at the back end of the pen. The FA closer crop is pretty ugly in '15 (Jannsen, Grilli, Lindstrom, Romo, Johnson, Robertson and Belisario) and '16 (Soriano, Balfour, Rodney, Soria, Street, Hawkins, Hunter and Parnell). Half of these guys may be dead or retired by 2017. Plus, I'm not seeing anyone from the farm stepping in, unless they reassign De La Rosa to Sandman duty.
Sign Koji for 2 years, let him retire a BoSock and make a run at Aroldis Chapman (FA '17).
Sign Koji for 2 years, let him retire a BoSock and make a run at Aroldis Chapman (FA '17).
HurstSoGood said:
I think if the Red Sox give him the QO, no club I can imagine will give up a draft pick to sign him: a closer who throws an 88 mph fastball and is himself 99 years old (in baseball years). This leaves the Red Sox in a luxurious position to make a 2 year offer at a slightly lower AAV than the QO. Of course, he could turn into a pumpkin at any time, and they'd assume that risk with a 2 year deal.
Tendering a QO to Koji would be insanity. There's no way in the world he'd turn it down because it would match the highest annual salary any reliever has ever been paid. I can't see why he'd accept then re-negotiate a longer deal. A 1/$15M deal with the opportunity to go back on the market beats a 2/$20-22M type deal any day.HriniakPosterChild said:
Besides, they're in the "luxurious" and exclusive position right now to make him a 2 year offer. No QO necessary. Far more likely they do that if they intend to keep him around than to let him get to free agency at all.
Not to add my stupidity to this post (I will anyway), I see no point in either buying or selling:
1. The team is what it is. Adding another piece or two is not going to vault them into greater contention than other teams (as opposed to, say, the Yankees - who could really improve their chances by acquiring front line pitching, if they had anything to trade for it). Either the team gets hot in the 2nd half with its current personnel, or the season gets chalked up to development.
2. I see little return on any major league (veteran) talent in selling, except for Uehara - who would be a shame to lose. The last thing I'd want to see, however, is the team giving up minor league or developing talent for a go-for-it-now fantasy. Sure, a long term young solution, like improving the outfield (which apparently has nothing in the pipeline and a "major league" no-hit center fielder) - that could be a smart move. But who's going to play that game with the Sox?
1. The team is what it is. Adding another piece or two is not going to vault them into greater contention than other teams (as opposed to, say, the Yankees - who could really improve their chances by acquiring front line pitching, if they had anything to trade for it). Either the team gets hot in the 2nd half with its current personnel, or the season gets chalked up to development.
2. I see little return on any major league (veteran) talent in selling, except for Uehara - who would be a shame to lose. The last thing I'd want to see, however, is the team giving up minor league or developing talent for a go-for-it-now fantasy. Sure, a long term young solution, like improving the outfield (which apparently has nothing in the pipeline and a "major league" no-hit center fielder) - that could be a smart move. But who's going to play that game with the Sox?
geoduck no quahog said:
Not only does it seem to be that there's a lot of talent in selling that we could offer to other teams but I don't understand the shame in dealing a 39 year old closer on a team on pace to win 74 games.
The Red Sox can trade Drew, Gomes, Peavy, Lackey, Vic, AJ... etc. If they were sellers they have a lot of pieces to offer teams to put them over the top. Drew is a legitimate starting SS, Gomes is a playoff tested guy who mashes LHP, Peavy is another veteran who can add steadying presence to the rotation, Lackey as well, Victorino is a legit starting OF at three positions and teams are always looking for catchers. They have a ton of tradeable talent. Some of it might require greasing the wheels a little bit with cash but they could do very well on the market this summer.
It might be in the thread, but what does a team that is barely out of the playoffs, and doesn't need to replenish its farm system, what reason do they have to trade away players for no major gain while severing their ability to make a run this year (while potentially killing their ability to sign players)?
The bigger gain might be the opportunity for some of the younger players to get extended auditions in certain roles. Trading away Pierzynski would give them a chance to see if Vazquez can handle the staff, trading Uehara would enable them to see if Tazawa/Webster/Whoever can handle the 9th, trading Peavy and/or Lester would let them evaluate the AAA guys against better competition, etc. Could be the difference between, say, entering 2015 with a closer in place and having to dip back into the trade market for a replacement yet again.mt8thsw9th said:
I don't see the catcher you've mentioned having a ton of value, though. The issue I have is the young players seeing valuable contributors traded away for a quarter or two on the dollar.
mt8thsw9th said:
Yes, it will warp their fragile little minds... C'mon man, they're grown ups. They understand the business of the game and furthermore they'll see opportunities for increased playing time.
mt8thsw9th said:
This makes absolutely no sense to me. You really think someone would see the Red Sox trading away a 33 year old outfielder with a year and a half remaining on his contract and go "Well, one of the most stories franchises in the history of competitive sport is trying to put a dynasty together and cutting ties with older players that won't contribute to said dynasty, I want no part of this club, they turned their back on a bunch of expensive veterans!"
That's positively mental.
Not only that, but why wouldn't they need to replenish their farm system? Are young, cost controlled players no longer good for franchises? Who says they have to trade away players for no major gain? Lastly, our ability to make a run this year is already severed. In order to get to 85 wins this season, we'd need to go 53-39 the rest of the way. That's just 85 wins... and that might not even be enough.
I think the point on the farm system is that the red Sox aren't going to be getting top prospects at the deadline and they have plenty of guys who are good organizational prospects but not stars.
Sure, if you could trade Jon Lester for Joc Pederson or something but I just don't think those guys are available.
There are two sides to the trade equation, and they both must be considered.
Sure, if you could trade Jon Lester for Joc Pederson or something but I just don't think those guys are available.
There are two sides to the trade equation, and they both must be considered.
HurstSoGood said:
I'm not sure we can dismiss the possibility of a future closer coming up from the farm system. The Red Sox usually bring the most promising pitching prospects through the system as starters (Jonathan Papelbon was a reliever in college but started almost exclusively in the minors). Workman, De la Rosa and Webster probably all have closer potential - I remember listening to a podcast last winter (Speier or SoxProspects, don't remember which) that included a discussion about this subject - in the opinion of some scouts, Webster might be better suited for short relief stints and could be a dominant closer in the majors with his stuff.
BosRedSox5 said:
I didn't do enough to dismantle this sentence last night. I think it's horrific, mostly because of putting forth bad ideas while condescendingly dismissing other ideas. No offense but if you are giving it out, I'm more than willing to make you take it as well.
First, you need to give up the idea that there are magical good prospects available for guys like the "33 year old outfielder" you are talking about. What do you propose is a good destination for Jonny Gomes and what do you think would come back for him? Do you think a Christian Vazquez level prospect? I would probably do something like that but I don't know that it's necessarily available. You have to hope someone all of a sudden gets desperate like the Tigers did last year when they gave up Avisail Garcia, and frankly that might let you think about dealing Lester or Uehara, but noone is going to panic and need Jonny Gomes or AJ Pierzynski or Jake Peavy and offer up those types of prospects. And if you are just picking up more organizational filler (the Brentz's and Hassans of the world) or low chance lottery tickets (say Manuel Margot) is it worth giving up wins in 2014? Maybe it is, but speaking as if you don't need to make the case is just being a blowhard.
Second, you speak of 53-39 as some unattainable goal. The Red Sox have had a 92 game streak of 53-39 or better in every year since 2000 other than 2012. Right now, it seems pretty likely that they can add 2014 to that list, but it's not impossible. And the point you are responding to is whether it is worth getting a bunch of low level prospects to give up even a chance of doing that. You seem to think so, just punt on the season and move forward. That's great, but the idea that the Red Sox are already in a position where they have to accept their fate is easily as untenable as anything you have dismissed.
One of the problems of the information age of baseball is that people aren't giving up Jeff Bagwell types for middle relievers. Hell, even in the not as much information age many people knew that trade was a terrible gamble. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the teams that are going to be buyers this deadline are mostly well-run teams. Maybe you can find some way to repeat the Lowe/Tek magic, but those guys were much better major leaguers than minor leaguers, and noone really knows how to identify those types of players, really. Sometimes you get lucky. Most times you do not.
As of now, you are correct; no need to tank the season.mt8thsw9th said:
Come 7/31, if the team is still 2nd from the bottom on the AL, they are unlikely to be "barely out of the playoffs". In that case, there's no harm in trading the guys that are unlikely to be around next year (Drew, AJP, Peavy, Gomes) in the hope of scoring some future depth for 2015 and beyond. Doing that is unlikely to kill their ability to sign players; they had no problem signing Napoli and Victorino after 2012. If they are out of it by 7/31, I'd rather see what their AAA players can do at the MLB level than see AJP flail at hit-and-run attempts.
Personally I'd like to see them start shopping the mid-tier veterans (Peavy, AJP, Gomes, any reliever other than Uehara and Tazawa, and Drew) for lottery tickets honestly. Go looking through the last two or three drafts for mid-round HS kids they liked and missed out on who are now with organizations needing one of these pieces. The farm is starting to funnel into the ML club at this point and they need to do two things as a result: 1. get the veterans like Peavy and AJP out of the way of guys like RDLR and Vazquez and 2. back fill the voids left by promoting guys through the farm as these guys move up.smastroyin said:
Adding 2-4 guys in the 19-22 age range who would slot in to the 11-25 range in the Sox farm would be very beneficial if you ask me. It builds the next layer of depth we'll need in a few years while having the distinct possibility of landing on an every day guy. They don't need to be 2014 or 2015 contributors. Hell, maybe not even 2016. They can be longer term farm investments because that is what the farm most needs right now. The seeds to sow another wave like the one just arriving now.
Do the Sox have enough 40 man roster spots in coming years to absorb 4 more B- prospects?lexrageorge said:
Assuming the team is out of the race at the deadline (and that is still rebuttable), I'd rather have a theoretical future roster crunch than see AJP and Peavy play out a lost season and take time away from Vazquez and De La Rosa. Especially if one of those "B- prospects" turns into a bullpen arm that can help the team in 2015.Plympton91 said:
smastroyin said:
He specifically said "a 33 year old outfielder with a year and a half remaining on his contract," which I'm pretty sure means Victorino. That may or may not affect your point, though I can see a team being willing to give up a bit more for Victorino than Gomes if they're willing to gamble that he stays on the field.
smastroyin said:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/trade_deadline/index_13.jsp
Just look at all the deals that were made last season. For SP: Bud Norris, Ian Kennedy, Jake Peavy and Ricky Nolasco were all traded. You have to ask yourself some questions here. Are those guys better than Peavy/Lackey? Are those guys better in comparison to the other pitchers who will be on the block this summer. Norris got the Astros L.J. Hoes who is struggling but is young and has dominated AAA pitching, Kennedy got the DBacks Joe Thatcher (a decent reliever) and Matt Stites (will probably be a decent reliever at some point.) Jake Peavy got the Tigers Jose Iglesias (who's glove will probably make him a solid ML regular) and the White Sox Avisail García who you mentioned. Nolasco was traded in a salary dump for three youngish pitchers.
You and I may have different opinions on value, but I think getting some of those type of guys would actually be pretty good and set us up for next year. A guy like Brock Holt was a throw in as part of the Hanrahan trade. Now he's our leadoff hitter and appears to have a good career in front of him as a top flight bench guy in the style of Ben Zobrist or Ryan Freel.
Look at fringe starters like Alberto Callaspo. He had a couple decent years as the Angels' 3B and he was dealt to the A's for Grant Green. Green is kind of blocked in LA but he raked for the Angels when he was called up and has hit well at every level in the minors. LHP's Scott Downs and Mark Rzepczynski got traded for Cory Rasmus and Juan Herrera respectively. Rasmus is a former 1st rounder who is developing slowly and Herrera won't turn 21 for another week and a half.
I think I just see these kind of players and think they'd be decent returns and you see them as needless roster filler that aren't worth sacrificing wins for this season. I disagree, prospects are so mercurial that things can just click. Brandon Workman was a guy everyone thought was a reliever at best and all of a sudden something clicked and his curve and changeup developed. Now he's pretty much entrenched as a starter. Why not load up on solid minor league depth and get these guys to figure it out? Maybe we trade off pieces and get a reliever here, a bench player there, a potential starter here and we're set up with a lot more depth in 2015?
Maybe this team could get on a hot streak, but it seems terribly unlikely. I watch the Red Sox because I love baseball and it helps make me a little less homesick. In a year after they won the World Series it seems like a perfect time to go out and rebuild for 2015. I'd still watch the team if guys like Mookie Betts and Christian Vazquez and Bryce Brentz were getting at bats instead of Grazy Sizemore, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino and AJ Pierzynski.
Trading Victorino at the absolute ebb of his value just makes me more against it.
I realize people like shiny things and think they can accumulate them by punting but it's just not the way things really work.
I realize people like shiny things and think they can accumulate them by punting but it's just not the way things really work.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Correct. Sorry for being so cryptic.
Though I still think teams would be willing to give up fair prices for a lot of our players:
Gomes- Playoff tested vet who hits lefties well and provides leadership.
Pierzynski- Catcher with playoff experience who hits left handed and plays decent defense.
Victorino- Great clubhouse guy, playoff experience, good D, plays 3 OF spots.
Drew- Solid starting SS, plays very good defense, hits lefty and has several seasons of a WAR above 3.
Breslow/Cap/Miller- Lefthanded relievers are always valuable and are traded every year at the deadline.
Uehara- Sure, we all love his personality and he's fun to watch but he's put up one of the best 2.5 year stretches ever for a reliever. He'd be very valuable to a playoff bound team needing relief help.
I don't think we'd substantially damage this team's playoff chances by dealing someone like Peavy and replacing him with Workman or RDLR. Is there more risk there? Sure. But this club isn't winning now. They need to start swapping out some of low risk, middling reward veterans for high risk, high reward alternatives and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.mt8thsw9th said:
Peavy is the obvious one. Workman and RDLR getting squeezed out to make room for Buch and Doubie coming back when both of the former have shown more in a handful of starts than either of the later two have all season would be a travesty. I figure Doubie has at least one more rehab start, so about two weeks until he's looking to rejoin the 25 man. Buch has probably another two starts, so three weeks. They need to flip Peavy by the time Buch comes back, ideally before Doubie does. Take a lottery ticket. Someone on par with Rijo or Margot. Maybe try to identify someone else's Yan Gomes, a mid-20's guy blocked by highly touted prospects despite solid production himself. They don't need to return someone who is an obvious piece of the puzzle long term, just parlay half a season of Peavy that this club doesn't need into a fresh 5-6 years of control for someone who might pay off down the line.
I'd suggest the same with Badenhop. I can't imagine there isn't a playoff team out there drooling at the idea of adding a ground out specialist in the middle of a 1.64 ERA season. Relievers are very much about catching a hot season when you can and there is little to dispute that Badenhop is having one of those. He could net a nice return if moved sooner than later. Meanwhile Webster has the repertoire that should translate to a nice GB/FB ratio if he utilizes it correctly. He could potentially move into Badenhop's role without us missing a beat, at the same time he'd get to learn how his stuff works best against ML pitching without anyone seeing him three times in one day, preparing him for a shot at the starting rotation next season.
All three of Breslow, Capuano, and Miller are expendable to a team with Chris Hernandez and Drake Britton twiddling their thumbs in AAA. At least one of the vets should be moved to let one of those two get a crack at being a long term lefty option under team control.
Am I suggesting a full on fire-sale of the mid-tier veterans? Definitely not. But selecting the spots where we have young guys who are ready for a crack at the majors and dealing the veterans currently blocking them would be a good way to maximize value, find what we have for 2015, and maybe get lucky and hit on the right mix to get the team going again.
If anyone was interested in AJP (I doubt it) he'd be an obvious move as well, letting Vazquez up while still having Ross to shield him from the full workload. I'd hesitate a bit on moving Gomes as the best hope for a replacement LH masher in Brentz has been derailed yet again by prolonged stints on the DL this year. He's interesting as the #2 option for that job in 2015, but he can't be the guy unless he has one hell of a second half once back from injury in AAA. Maybe if the light comes on for WMB he could be the guy as Farrell has talked about him working in the OF, but that is TBD. Otherwise resigning Gomes for 2015 doesn't sound like a bad choice should Nava find himself again against RHP.
Trading Vic makes zero sense because he is exactly what this club is missing. He's better than anyone else (but Bradley) they've put in RF defensively, he hits for average, good OBP, a nice bit of power, and he runs the bases well. We all keep talking about how to fix the OF and what the team needs to turn it around. What it needs is a healthy Victorino. You can't trade him when he's hurt and when he's healthy he's the missing piece to the puzzle for us. There also isn't anyone close to as competent on the farm, otherwise they'd be up already.smastroyin said:
The point is not that it makes no sense to trade our low value guys for high value prospects. Of course that's what you try to to. The point is that this just doesn't happen all that often. I have looked at years and years of deadline deals. It is becoming increasingly rare that a guy as good as Avisail Garcia gets dealt and Peavy last year had a lot more value than Peavy this year. Once in a while you still get a deal where a very good major league player is dealt, but I'm not quite on board with shipping out the very good players. We can take a look at the Bud Norris deal, since someone else brought it up. That was for an organizational filler type OF and a lottery ticket single A pitcher. Yes, Hader looks good this year but he was a 19th round draft pick. What you bought in Hader with that trade was the knowledge that he had some success in A ball and whatever scouting you could do to see his stuff against better competition than he saw in high school. That's worth quite a bit but he's still a long way from the majors. This is largely what you get at the trade deadline, if you are even lucky enough to get that. Drek mentions Burke Badenhop. Is Badenhop going to deliver more than Brandon Jacobs (who the Sox traded for Matt Thronton last year)? I tend to doubt it.
So sure, if someone offers you a guy who would be in your top 5 or 10 in the system for Peavy or whoever then you go for it. My point isn't that you don't try, and it's not that you do it if you can find it, my point is that these attractive deals may not actually be out there.
So sure, if someone offers you a guy who would be in your top 5 or 10 in the system for Peavy or whoever then you go for it. My point isn't that you don't try, and it's not that you do it if you can find it, my point is that these attractive deals may not actually be out there.
smastroyin said:
This is where I'm at. I think rosy depictions of our middle tier veterans and their intangibles ("tested" "leadership" "clubhouse guy") like Peavy, Gomes, or Drew are overblown. I could see the Sox moving a piece or two at the deadline if the right deal is there, but it just doesn't seem like the front office's MO to trade a bunch of veterans. I agree with smastroyin that these deals are unlikely to yield anything with great potential - maybe a couple of George Kottaras or Brandon Jacobs types. I could see a bullpen arm or two going, maybe even Peavy, to make room for some of the AAA arms and RDLR/Workman, but otherwise, I just don't see much happening at the deadline.
Obviously, if someone is desperate at the deadline and is going to give a young Wil Myers or a the Garza package that the Cubs got last year, by all means, do it. But I wouldn't just sell for the sake of being sellers.
smastroyin said:
I would think the value in trading Victorino is that you take his salary of the 2015 books. If the Sox want to go another direction next year, and someone is even willing to just take the salary on, I wouldn't wait until next year to maximize his value. The major question is whether the Sox think he'll ever be able to come back and contribute on a regular basis, or at least for something like 75% of the games. If they do, I see no reason to trade him. If not, they may as well.
Just taking a quick look at the standings, the Mariners and Dodgers could use some help at catcher... and that's just as a starter. I would presume that teams who are closing in on a playoff spot might be interested in a catcher who hits lefty, still plays good D, has a ton of experience and has actually hit really well against righties this year and in the past. Even a team with a really good catcher like Milwaukee could be interested in a catcher who can hit righties well. Lucroy hits well enough against both that he doesn't need a platoon but as a catcher he's naturally going to need more rest than a regular position player. Getting someone who mashes righties makes some solid sense.Drek717 said:
I could see AJP being a fairly useful piece for a playoff team. AJ might be an asshole, but he's still decent behind the plate, has a lot of experience, has been proven in the playoffs, can hit RHP and is the kind of guy who you might even use as a pinch hitter off the bench. That's all really good stuff to have in a part time player during a pennant race.
Catchers aren't typically available in midseason deals because they're pretty hard to come by, but in 2012 Geovany Soto was dealt for Jake Brigham who isn't great but was worth a shot as a relief prospect. In 2010 there were a couple trades. Pedro Ciriaco and Chris Snyder got dealt for Bobby Crosby (a flier on an athletically gifted player), D.J. Carrasco (an older reliever who was okay for a while) and Ryan Church (a pretty decent 4th OF who plays all OF positions.) Then Bengie Molina was traded for Michael Main and Chris Ray who never panned out but were worth a shot.
Sure, we'd probably end up with some middling prospect for AJ but there's a chance we could get someone who would help the 2015 team without hurting the 2014 team any more than it already is. Maybe a middle reliever, or a bench guy or minor league filler that gets the Paw Sox or Sea Dogs a minor league playoff berth and some extra experience and exposure. Who knows. Even if we got nothing and got Vazquez some ML at bats that'd be better for 2015 wouldn't it?
BosRedSox5 said:
Victor Martinez says "hi".
Granted, AJP will not yield anything close to Justin Masterson. But I'd still be in favor of moving him if the team is out of contention.
If you're talking about today, he provides injury insurance to the back end of the rotation. We don't know how many innings either Workman or De La Rosa are going to be able to pitch, nor do we know if Doubront or Buchholz will return 100% healthy and effective. Then again, I'm of the belief that it's still too early to sell off assets for the future.Rudy Pemberton said:
Once the team decides they cannot realistically contend, then I agree that Peavy is worth little to this team, and there would be no downside to trading him. Similar comments apply to Drew, who would probably fetch more in return assuming he's healthy.
Even in 2006 they grabbed Lopez from Baltimore. It's been a long time. It doesn't make sense with the 2nd wild card spot open. I certainly don't understand why with 2 wild card spots people are willing to deal Koji Lester etc...the only one I might look to deal is Koji since he's going to be a FA and will command more than is to my liking for his age and durability. He's been one of the best closers in the league again this year. Probably the best signing the Sox have made since Ortiz if you look at cost and production.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
I'm on record saying that I'd like them to deal Peavy sooner than later. But there is still value in keeping him. He is still a legitimate major league starting pitcher, and if you move him, promote RDLR for good, and then he gets hurt, now you're down two legit starting pitchers. I know there is depth in the system, but unless the Sox are sellers right now, giving up a legit starting pitcher doesn't make a ton of sense.
That said, the reasons I want to move him are: (1) I think RDLR gives them a better chance to win now, and (2) the longer a team can keep Peavy, the more value he has. So the return should be better than at the trade deadline.
Tyrone Biggums said:
They picked up Lopez because Varitek went down and the internal alternatives to share duties with Mirabelli were Ken Huckaby and Corky Miller. They were also only a game out of first when the deal was made. That was a late season fadeaway like 2011 and 2012 were, although obviously not nearly as dramatic or catastrophic.
ivanvamp said:
I disagree on (2). Your best chance to get the best value for Peavy is if a contender has a desperate need closer to the deadline (say, Tim Hudson goes down with an injury). I suppose you could starting chatting now with a team like Milwaukee who could use him, but they will probably want to explore internal options first.