When is the realistic Add/Drop deadline for this team?

[ivanvamp]

In college, there's a point in time, relatively early in the semester, where you have to make final decisions on your schedule.  The add/drop deadline.  Up to that point, you can add any class you want or drop any class you want.  After that, sorry.
 
I know there is the non-waiver trade deadline July 31, but it sure seems to me that for all practical purposes, the Sox need to decide well before then if they are sellers or buyers.  
 
Given the current situation - the standings, the makeup of the team, etc. - when do you think the Sox realistically need to decide whether they are truly in this thing or not?  I would imagine the closer they are to a playoff spot the longer this thing can string out.  So how many games out, and by what date, do you think you would decide, if you were Cherington?
 
Because it FEELS like this team is absolutely dead in the water.  But the reality is that they're just 5 games out of a wild card spot.  It's hard to see this team making up 5 games on anyone (folks, they are 2nd to last in the American League!!), but 5 games with 90+ to go isn't very much, even if there are a lot of teams in-between.  Really, one excellent two-week stretch (say, 11-2) can put them right back in it.

 

[HurstSoGood]

The Sox should already know that this is the bridge year (that they were heading for last year). It would be a wonderful thing if this group could turn it around and surprise the hell out of me, but I absolutely don't wan't them to be looking to bring in Larry Anderson at the trade deadline.
 
Ben needs to make a decision and stick with the plan, which I hope includes making us stronger for the next 5 years (SELL-SELL-SELL). I want high draft picks, not the joy of a September nut-punch. The kids (including more call-ups after some of our vets are moved/released) can get more playing time without having to look over their shoulder and stress to death because the team is almost in the hunt for a wild card spot. 
 
Winning only 70 games and being decisive personnel-wise > winning 80 games and being wishy-washy.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I think the average Red Sox fan is much more receptive to a rebuilding year. Maybe this is because New Englanders are a tiny bit less high strung than New Yorkers, maybe it's because we've seen it work in the past, maybe because we're less entitled... whatever the reason, I think most fans would be pretty forgiving if the Red Sox were sellers this year. (Attendance would suffer but it'd come roaring back immediately after the first hint of life.)
 
The team's definitely been bitten by the injury bug, but key players are returning soon. I would think that unless we get really hot once Vic comes back than we ought to think about selling. The team actually has quite a few pieces that would be attractive to other teams. 

 

[Plympton91]

They were actually talking about this on MLB Radio yesterday morning, and the hosts weren't sure that there was anyone on the team that would bring back significant value except Lester and Uehara, along with people like Ortiz and Pedroia who aren't going to be traded.  That sort of tells you why we're having this discussion, doesn't it?  The problem with being sellers, is that the reason you're selling is because they put together a terrible baseball team.
 
I think the list of useful players is a little longer than that -- Miller and Breslow, Victorino and Drew once they're healthy and rehabbed, Gomes.  But, once you start making that list it also becomes apparent that if they do "sell" a lot of their marketable players, next year's team is going to suck, too, absent Cecchini, Betts, and 2 pitchers staging a 4 way race for rookie of the year.   That's unacceptable, to me.  

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I think the average Red Sox fan is much more receptive to a rebuilding year. Maybe this is because New Englanders are a tiny bit less high strung than New Yorkers, maybe it's because we've seen it work in the past, maybe because we're less entitled... whatever the reason, I think most fans would be pretty forgiving if the Red Sox were sellers this year.

Maybe it's because we just won the World Series and have more championships in the last decade than anybody else? I'd certainly understand punting on this season, but as pointed out above, the decisions about how to rebuild for next year will be important to me.

 

[soxfan121]

First, the answer to the thread question is August 31st. 
 

But, once you start making that list it also becomes apparent that if they do "sell" a lot of their marketable players, next year's team is going to suck

 
Did MLB cancel free agency? The idea that trading Uehara, Breslow, Gomes and/or Peavy would make next year's team "suck" doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. 

 

[ivanvamp]

They were actually talking about this on MLB Radio yesterday morning, and the hosts weren't sure that there was anyone on the team that would bring back significant value except Lester and Uehara, along with people like Ortiz and Pedroia who aren't going to be traded.  That sort of tells you why we're having this discussion, doesn't it?  The problem with being sellers, is that the reason you're selling is because they put together a terrible baseball team.
 
I think the list of useful players is a little longer than that -- Miller and Breslow, Victorino and Drew once they're healthy and rehabbed, Gomes.  But, once you start making that list it also becomes apparent that if they do "sell" a lot of their marketable players, next year's team is going to suck, too, absent Cecchini, Betts, and 2 pitchers staging a 4 way race for rookie of the year.   That's unacceptable, to me.  

 
Right.  You can't sell off every piece, obviously.  So you evaluate the trade market.  Let's say you are willing to move three relievers out of Uehara, Miller, Badenhop, Tazawa, Capuano, and Breslow.  You keep three, knowing that you can always add a free agent or two in the offseason and/or call up an Alex Wilson or other AAA arm for 2015 and still have a pretty good pen.  You find out what other teams want and what they're willing to give, and you end up making a tough call in terms of which guys you're willing to deal.  Obviously the better the pitcher (like Uehara/Taz) the more you'll likely get in return.
 
The good news is that these relievers, for the most part, all have rings, and all performed well in the postseason, which is something that will be extra attractive to teams in the playoff race.
 
To me, the ones I'd be most interested in trading away are Breslow, Capuano, and Badenhop.  Teams are always looking for left-handed relievers, so that means Breslow and Capuano may garner some interest.  And Badenhop has been very good this year.  Tazawa would no doubt fetch a fair return, as he has not only been terrific the past few years, but his postseason last year was excellent.  

 

[johnnywayback]

I really do think that this team, as currently composed, can compete if healthy.  And I think it's probably good for the younger players to be on a team that's competing, even if it's a competition among mediocre teams for the last spot in the postseason.
 
But I think the most important thing for the team to do this year is evaluate -- figure out the answers to some key questions that determine the roster strategy for the next couple of years.  A lot of those questions are about the minors (is Vazquez ready, can Betts play OF, etc.).  But there are some that, I think, dictate major league roster decisions in 2015 and 2016.  Such as:
 
-- Is Bradley the answer in CF, or do we need a new answer?
-- Is Middlebrooks the (or an) answer at 3B (and, until Drew was signed, this went hand in hand with "Can Bogaerts get his SS defense together?)?
-- Which of the AAA SP are ready to be in the rotation next year?
-- Can Buchholz and Doubront be fixed, or do we need to find more starters than we thought?
 
To me, that's not a recipe for short-term upgrades this year, even if they do stay in the race.  I don't agree that I'd rather have a high draft pick than be an underdog in the playoffs, but, for example, I would rather know for sure if RDLR can stick in the rotation than trade assets for Jason Hammel, even if that pushes us down the standings.

 

[Rico Guapo]

They were actually talking about this on MLB Radio yesterday morning, and the hosts weren't sure that there was anyone on the team that would bring back significant value except Lester and Uehara, along with people like Ortiz and Pedroia who aren't going to be traded.  That sort of tells you why we're having this discussion, doesn't it?  The problem with being sellers, is that the reason you're selling is because they put together a terrible baseball team.
 
I think the list of useful players is a little longer than that -- Miller and Breslow, Victorino and Drew once they're healthy and rehabbed, Gomes.  But, once you start making that list it also becomes apparent that if they do "sell" a lot of their marketable players, next year's team is going to suck, too, absent Cecchini, Betts, and 2 pitchers staging a 4 way race for rookie of the year.   That's unacceptable, to me.  

 
They aren't playing well for a host of reasons, but for the large part, it's the same team that won the world series last year. They did not put together a terrible baseball team, at least not by design.
 
That being said, they do have useful pieces that other teams may want down the stretch, especially in regards to bullpen arms.
 
I don't think they'll get elite prospects in return (unless they move Lester) but what do I know, I'm just a keyobard jockey...

 

[Rovin Romine]

There is no easily found realistic Add/Drop deadline due to the uncertainly in player injury and performance.  
 
However, if Buchholz, Doubront, Nava, Carp, WMB, Ross, Sizemore, and JBJ were to have suffered season ending injuries, I would say the season is not recoverable.  Performance wise, they've pretty much done that though.  (Or have a big enough of an injury/question mark for us to ask if they're ever going to hold their weight on a championship caliber team.) Moreover, Oritz, Napoli and Pedroia are all playing a notch below their premium output, so it's not like we're waiting for a bunch of supporting cast to improve and support a sizzling superstar core.  
 
I expect the Sox will wait until the traditional trade deadline though - that way there will be no question as to whether or not a resurgence on the player's part might have salvaged the season.  Theoretically, just about all of those players could put it back together/recover, and/or go on a hot streak.  Realistically, this is starting to look an awful lot like the 2012 "don't worry, it will come together soon" season.  
 
If the season is truly lost, I think you trade just just about anyone from the bullpen (including Uehara), plus, as mentioned upthread, Victorino, Drew, Gomes,  

 

[Toe Nash]

They were actually talking about this on MLB Radio yesterday morning, and the hosts weren't sure that there was anyone on the team that would bring back significant value except Lester and Uehara, along with people like Ortiz and Pedroia who aren't going to be traded.  That sort of tells you why we're having this discussion, doesn't it?  The problem with being sellers, is that the reason you're selling is because they put together a terrible baseball team.
 
I think the list of useful players is a little longer than that -- Miller and Breslow, Victorino and Drew once they're healthy and rehabbed, Gomes.  But, once you start making that list it also becomes apparent that if they do "sell" a lot of their marketable players, next year's team is going to suck, too, absent Cecchini, Betts, and 2 pitchers staging a 4 way race for rookie of the year.   That's unacceptable, to me.  

Your second paragraph contradicts your first. If the players they have make up a terrible baseball team, then why is it unacceptable to trade them off? Following your logic, keeping them around for next year won't make a good baseball team.
 
Or maybe the truth is there are a lot of guys with injuries and off years that can be expected to perhaps rebound next year. But that would run counter to your insistence that the FO somehow screwed up royally.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Your second paragraph contradicts your first. If the players they have make up a terrible baseball team, then why is it unacceptable to trade them off? Following your logic, keeping them around for next year won't make a good baseball team.
 
Or maybe the truth is there are a lot of guys with injuries and off years that can be expected to perhaps rebound next year. But that would run counter to your insistence that the FO somehow screwed up royally.

 
A lot of the guys that were key members of the 2013 World Series Champions are the direct cause of the struggles this year. If Buchholz wasn't the worst pitcher in baseball after his very good 1/2 season last year, we're not having this discussion. Dunbront has been worse this year than last. Victorino played 122 games of 118 OPS+ last year; this year he's only played in 21 games and has put up an OPS+ of 72. Pedroia is worse than last year, Ortiz' OPS is down 130 points. Napoli's been roughly the same but has been hurt, Nava's been brutal and demoted, Peavy hasn't been as good, etc. etc.
 
They had a bunch of players who were very good last year fall off, get hurt, or both so far this year. It's tough to overstate how detrimental Buchholz has been to the 2014 season. The other place they've been badly hit is the OF of course, because JBJ has struggled, to put it mildly. But they could have withstood that if anyone else in the OF was playing at the same rate this year as last. The OF play has been so bad because JBJ and Sizemore haven't contributed much with the stick, and Victorino's been injured all year, and Nava's been lousy.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
A lot of the guys that were key members of the 2013 World Series Champions are the direct cause of the struggles this year. If Buchholz wasn't the worst pitcher in baseball after his very good 1/2 season last year, we're not having this discussion. Dunbront has been worse this year than last. Victorino played 122 games of 118 OPS+ last year; this year he's only played in 21 games and has put up an OPS+ of 72. Pedroia is worse than last year, Ortiz' OPS is down 130 points. Napoli's been roughly the same but has been hurt, Nava's been brutal and demoted, Peavy hasn't been as good, etc. etc.
 
They had a bunch of players who were very good last year fall off, get hurt, or both so far this year. It's tough to overstate how detrimental Buchholz has been to the 2014 season. The other place they've been badly hit is the OF of course, because JBJ has struggled, to put it mildly. But they could have withstood that if anyone else in the OF was playing at the same rate this year as last.

Absolutely. They're right in it if Buchholz and Doubront are just average. Maybe that was relatively predictable, but I don't know what you could have done in the offseason to plan for it beyond spending a billion dollars on Tanaka (which would have given them what, 7 starters - that was before Dempsters decision).
 
In the context of this thread, that makes me want to hold off on "selling" for a bit, as it does seem like they could go on a run and make up the 5 game deficit. That is, that regression may happen this year rather than next.
 
But it is going to be too late to make this up very soon. I would agree with BosRedSox5 above -- see how they do with Victorino back, and if they're still treading water, go ahead and see what deals are out there.

 

[Stitch01]

Is this really a rebuilding year? Lester, Uehara, Peavy are likely all gone next year; Lackey, Victorino, and Papi perhaps the year after that. Bogaerts is certainly a stud and a guy to build around, but dismissing this year as a rebuilding year suggests that there's a payoff down the road and while next years team could certainly be very good, it will likely depend on what they do in the offseason.

This year strikes me as a shitty one; but not really a bridge or rebuilding one.

Giving out a bunch of one year deals to veterans while waiting for a strong group of high minors prospects to come to the majors in a year or two is the definition of a bridge year.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

The Sox should already know that this is the bridge year (that they were heading for last year). It would be a wonderful thing if this group could turn it around and surprise the hell out of me, but I absolutely don't wan't them to be looking to bring in Larry Anderson at the trade deadline.
 
Ben needs to make a decision and stick with the plan, which I hope includes making us stronger for the next 5 years (SELL-SELL-SELL). I want high draft picks, not the joy of a September nut-punch. The kids (including more call-ups after some of our vets are moved/released) can get more playing time without having to look over their shoulder and stress to death because the team is almost in the hunt for a wild card spot. 
 
Winning only 70 games and being decisive personnel-wise > winning 80 games and being wishy-washy.

Tanking isn't an exact science. It's not a guarantee by any stretch that whatever the Sox get for Lester would bring value back close to his. Tanking got the Red Sox Trey Ball. It also helped clear a lot of money which is a problem this team currently doesn't have. Just doesn't make sense to blow it up

 

[Rovin Romine]

Tanking isn't an exact science. It's not a guarantee by any stretch that whatever the Sox get for Lester would bring value back close to his. Tanking got the Red Sox Trey Ball. It also helped clear a lot of money which is a problem this team currently doesn't have. Just doesn't make sense to blow it up

 
Not yet.  The idea would be for the Sox to remain competitive in the 15, 16, 17 seasons, not go completely back to the drawing board.  No doubt the Sox have a long term plan in place, based on which free agents might come available, which of their own players they should sign or extend, and which of the prospects they reasonably expect to pan out. 
 
If there's a time to sell players during the 14 season, it should be players that won't have a good chance of helping in '15.  That includes players they expect will fall off a cliff (sell high players), players who are going to leave as FA agents anyway, or players who are blocked or are surplus (only Carp possibly fits this description).  Such players also must have value to a competing team (the trade partner).  If those conditions are met, you exchange the zero value of 2015 production for possible future value in prospects and/or "unblocking" prospects or giving minor league players development time at the MLB level. 
 
Lester, Victorino, Drew, Uehara may or may not fall into that group.  Brock Holt! might also be an interesting trade piece - assuming he remains hot and remains without (more or less) a position.   I have to think that any playoff bound club would hugely benefit in adding Lester and/or Uehara, regardless of their starting rotation or their bullpen.  If contract talks fail with Lester and given Uehara's age, I can easily see this happening. 

 

[johnnywayback]

Looking forward, what do the 15-16 Red Sox teams look like? They are potentially losing a lot of talent but will have a lot of money; at this point the core looks to be Bogaerts, Pedroia..and ? You can continue to fill in the holes with short term deals, but it gets harder to do that when you don't have a really strong core, no? Flexibility is good in that the team can go in a lot of different directions but they should really consider cashing in on the assets they have. If they aren't going to re-sign guys like Lester, Uehara, Drew, Gomes, Miller, etc., than they should cash them in for guys that can be on the next good Sox team (which is hopefully next year).

 
I'd say Cecchini is part of that, and either/both of Vazquez/Swihart.  Hopefully Bradley in CF -- if not, maybe Betts.  So you have a pretty decent offensive core that can be completed with a couple of good-to-elite bats at positions low on the defensive spectrum.  Not so bad.
 
If Buchholz and/or Doubront return to their potential, they re-sign Lester, and one or two of the AAA kids proves ready to start, you're one or two pitchers away.
 
A lot of ifs.  But, to me, what they are going to need from outside the organization to build a strong team in 2015-16-17 lines up pretty nicely with what is most likely to be available from outside the organization given our financial flexibility and prospect depth.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

I don't know who they have in their system but with Joe Nathan shitting the bed, I would imagine Detroit would be drooling to add a Uehara considering their desperation to win it all.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

I don't know who they have in their system but with Joe Nathan shitting the bed, I would imagine Detroit would be drooling to add a Uehara considering their desperation to win it all.

The Tigers farm system is ranked 28th in league.  According to Keith Law:

 
 
"This system boils down to third baseman Nick Castellanos and a lot of power arms who seem like probable relievers, as well as some slick defensive middle infielders, any of whom could establish himself as a valuable asset with a year of offensive production. I'd like the system more had the Doug Fister trade yielded a top-50 prospect, as you'd expect given Fister's performance the past two years," 

They won't give up Castellanos  and the other prospects seem underwhelming.  I can't see a trade happening.

 

[glennhoffmania]

It's not just that they're only 5 games out of a WC spot.  It's that they'd have to pass everyone else besides Tampa.  I think the deadline has already passed.

 

[Plympton91]

 
They aren't playing well for a host of reasons, but for the large part, it's the same team that won the world series last year. They did not put together a terrible baseball team, at least not by design.
 

 
They changed the catcher, shortstop, and centerfielder; and changed the larger PA side of the LF platoon because of a two-week slump by Nava and a fairy tale about Sizemore's health.  This is not the same team that won the world series last year.
 

Your second paragraph contradicts your first. If the players they have make up a terrible baseball team, then why is it unacceptable to trade them off? Following your logic, keeping them around for next year won't make a good baseball team.
 
Or maybe the truth is there are a lot of guys with injuries and off years that can be expected to perhaps rebound next year. But that would run counter to your insistence that the FO somehow screwed up royally.

 
Uh, if they have only a few good players, and trade all of them off, then they have even less good players.  The solution is not to trade Lester, Uehara, Miller, Gomes, and Drew; it is to resign those guys and then sign people to play two absolutely key positions that still suck, like catcher and centerfield, while hoping that Victorino gets healthy for a last hurrah in 2015.   Or you can trade those guys and hope the Ruby De La Rosa becomes a borderline Cy Young candidate, Junichi Tazawa is a lights out closer, Drake Britton doesn't crash any more trucks and becomes as good as Miller, and Will Middlebrooks develops Garin Cecchini's batting eye or Garin Cecchini develops Will Middlebrooks' power----while still needing to sign people to play positions that suck, like catcher (since savior Vazquez is hitting for only about a 700 OPS) and centerfield, and hoping that Victorino gets healthy.
 
If they can get something for Peavy, Capuano, or Breslow, that'd be great.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It's not just that they're only 5 games out of a WC spot.  It's that they'd have to pass everyone else besides Tampa.  I think the deadline has already passed.

 
I'd say the cut off point for making a decision should be the end of June.  They have time to make a run between then and now and make the fight for a playoff spot less daunting.  If they are still near the bottom of the AL at that point, I don't think anyone would blame them for cashing in on a few of their veteran pieces and looking forward to 2015.  A run of 7 wins in 10 games could put them ahead of the majority of the teams between where they are and the second wild card spot.  No reason not to see if they can get hot one last time before having to make that choice.
 
I don't think any potential deals that exist now are likely to disappear in the next three weeks or so.  I suppose the market may thin out a little, as a few more teams realize they aren't playoff caliber teams, but there is also the potential for an injury (or suspension... hello Detroit!) to create an opportunity that doesn't exist now.

 

[Puffy]

I think they will take things to the trade deadline, but even then I doubt they sell much off. As bad as they have been, they aren't that far out of contention. It just hasn't been the MO of this ownership group to raise the white flag with 2 months left on the season. I think they want to see how the team comes together when Victorino comes back, as well as Buchholz and Doubront. Baseball is a weird sport and strange things happen. They could have a month where a couple of players get hot and carry the team for a while. 
 
The most likely outcome is that the are still struggling by July, but not completely out of contention, in which case they will probably stand pat with what they have. They may see who slips through waivers in August to see if they can pull off a deal later in the season.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I was thinking yesterday that, if things don't turn around, Peavy might be of interest for a team such as the Pirates, Indians or Marlins ... teams that might want to make a run at it and for who Peavy might not exercise his '15 option. Even if he were to, if the Sox threw in some cash -- say, $5M -- it would increase the return

 

[Rovin Romine]

Uh, if they have only a few good players, and trade all of them off, then they have even less good players.  The solution is not to trade Lester, Uehara, Miller, Gomes, and Drew; it is to resign those guys and then sign people to play two absolutely key positions that still suck, like catcher and centerfield, while hoping that Victorino gets healthy for a last hurrah in 2015.   

 
So your solution for competing in 2015 is to rely on constructing a team by open bidding in the free agent market.  Because all the guys who are going to be "resigned" in your plans are FAs in 2015. 
 
Another possibility is to develop young players (acquired through drafts and trades) to form a "core" and augment that core through trades and FA signings.  Crazy idea, I know.  
 
I wonder which one the front office will pick?

 

[Max Power]

 
They changed the catcher, shortstop, and centerfielder; and changed the larger PA side of the LF platoon because of a two-week slump by Nava and a fairy tale about Sizemore's health.  This is not the same team that won the world series last year.
 
 
 

 
They have the same shortstop. You might have seen a thread or two about it. Saltalamacchia currently sports a .739 OPS and has one extra base hit in the last 28 days. So yes, aside from Ellsbury it is pretty much the same team as last year. Everyone is just playing worse.

 

[Plympton91]

 
So your solution for competing in 2015 is to rely on constructing a team by open bidding in the free agent market.  Because all the guys who are going to be "resigned" in your plans are FAs in 2015. 
 
Another possibility is to develop young players (acquired through drafts and trades) to form a "core" and augment that core through trades and FA signings.  Crazy idea, I know.  
 
I wonder which one the front office will pick?

 
I don't know, they've picked both on a lot of occasions though---including all of the occasions in which they've won the post season tournament championship---and with a luxury tax limit of $190 million or so, I don't see any reason why that shouldn't be the model. I sure am glad they didn't succeed in giving away Manny Ramirez for nothing, and didn't decide to double down on "closer by committee" for 2004.
 
Assuming Uehara and Lester gone, which pitchers in the system do you expect to develop into #1  or #1a starter and lights out relief ace for next year, or what combination of free agent signings and trades do you expect occur in order to acquire same?  You don't win very often without top of the rotation starters and a lights out relief ace.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
This has been posted a few times over the last couple months and it's completely inaccurate to cite it as anything that will come into play.
 
Peavy only has a player option if he throws 400 IP combined in 2013-14. He threw 144.2 last year, so unless people think he's tossing 255.1 this season it's not in the discussion. 

 
Thanks, didn't know that. So that makes him even more of interest for those type of teams

 

[Stitch01]

 
They changed the catcher, shortstop, and centerfielder; and changed the larger PA side of the LF platoon because of a two-week slump by Nava and a fairy tale about Sizemore's health.  This is not the same team that won the world series last year.
 
 
Uh, if they have only a few good players, and trade all of them off, then they have even less good players.  The solution is not to trade Lester, Uehara, Miller, Gomes, and Drew; it is to resign those guys and then sign people to play two absolutely key positions that still suck, like catcher and centerfield, while hoping that Victorino gets healthy for a last hurrah in 2015.   Or you can trade those guys and hope the Ruby De La Rosa becomes a borderline Cy Young candidate, Junichi Tazawa is a lights out closer, Drake Britton doesn't crash any more trucks and becomes as good as Miller, and Will Middlebrooks develops Garin Cecchini's batting eye or Garin Cecchini develops Will Middlebrooks' power----while still needing to sign people to play positions that suck, like catcher (since savior Vazquez is hitting for only about a 700 OPS) and centerfield, and hoping that Victorino gets healthy.
 
If they can get something for Peavy, Capuano, or Breslow, that'd be great.

Drew is for sure not on the '15 team, they don't get any compensation for him, and if the team is out of it they're better off going X/Middlebrooks or X/Cecchini so he's the easiest decision to move for best offer.  If the Sox are sellers he is unquestionably off the team by August 1.
 
Moving Gomes or Miller for value is fine.
 
They should know whether they can sign Lester by the trade deadline, so the choice isn't Lester or what he could return in trade its the comp pick vs. what Lester would return in trade.
 
Agreed on Uehara unless they are absolutely blown away with a stupid GFIN offer or they know he isn't going to play next year.

 

[benhogan]

Keep grinding till the bitter end.
 
P91 makes a good point. You don't go and deal Lester and Koji if you want to compete next year or the year after. Part of the reason you play guys like Xander, JBJ, Nava, Holt and develop youngsters is because they are cheap and you can use that savings to re-sign KEY players. We are losing a bunch of salary this off season (Lackey/Peavy/Drew), we should have plenty of flexibility this off-season even after spending more on re-signing Lester and Koji. 

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
Assuming Uehara and Lester gone, which pitchers in the system do you expect to develop into #1  or #1a starter and lights out relief ace for next year, or what combination of free agent signings and trades do you expect occur in order to acquire same?  You don't win very often without top of the rotation starters and a lights out relief ace.

 
This is not the right question to ask.  I'm not sure Lester is going to be a top of the rotation starter next year.  Nor am I sure Uehara is going to be a lights out relief ace.  They may do it, they may not.  Odds are for Lester and against Uehara.
 
I agree with you in the sense that a team has to have year long production power, plus short series advantages to compete for a title.  Typical short series advantages include dominant starting pitching and elite relievers. 

 

[Rasputin]

My answer is the All Star Break, but really it's a sliding scale that depends on how far back we are and what day it is.
 
If we should go on another ten game losing streak, the day moves up. A ten game winning streak, the day moves out.
 
Should that day come--it hasn't yet, and may not--the targets to sell are the free agents to be that we don't want back. Pierzynski, Gomes, Drew, Miller, Peavy. None of them are going to bring back a ton, but maybe between them we can get some outfield depth.
 
You don't trade Lester unless you're absolutely convinced he has no intention of signing here, and how one would get that convinced, I don't know. He says he wants to stay here. The Red Sox are clearly not stupid enough not to want him to stay here so it's pretty likely that a deal gets done. I'd like to see it happen at the break if only to save us from the agita.
 
I'm conflicted about Uehara., On the one hand, keeping him would likely be expensive. On the other hand, he's an enormous weapon. I'm going to hate almost everything that could happen.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
They have the same shortstop. You might have seen a thread or two about it. Saltalamacchia currently sports a .739 OPS and has one extra base hit in the last 28 days. So yes, aside from Ellsbury it is pretty much the same team as last year. Everyone is just playing worse.

 
And Jacoby has been solid for NY so far (thanks to a nice recent run):  112 ops+, 18 sb.  But he's been worth 1.0 bWAR.  JBj has been worth 0.0 bWAR.
 
So Ellsbury --> Bradley has cost the Sox, what, one game?  
 
(Which makes me question WAR, because Ellsbury has been MUCH better than Bradley.  Unless, of course, Bradley's defense really has been beyond incredible.)

 

[Toe Nash]

 
This is not the right question to ask.  I'm not sure Lester is going to be a top of the rotation starter next year.  Nor am I sure Uehara is going to be a lights out relief ace.  They may do it, they may not.  Odds are for Lester and against Uehara.
 
I agree with you in the sense that a team has to have year long production power, plus short series advantages to compete for a title.  Typical short series advantages include dominant starting pitching and elite relievers. 

I think what P91 is missing is that performances are incredibly variable. You pay more for guys who are proven, and hopefully they form your core, but they can fall apart very quickly. This should have been learned from 2012-13, but I guess not.
 
I mean, just one calendar year ago, Middlebrooks was a 3b of the future, Bradley was ready to step in, Buchholz was looking amazing, Lester had an ERA in the mid-4s (after a high-4s performance in 2012), Uehara only had 1 save, Mookie Betts was just a top-20 prospect with a hot start, and that's just off the top of my head.
 
So when you start re-signing guys because you have the budget and they were good last year, well, you run into problems. 
 
If you take a step back, you can see that the Sox have 6 very solid pitching prospects in the high minors, a lot of other young talent elsewhere, and some guys who could rebound and pitch well in Buchholz and Doubront. They have prospect depth at most places (including two catchers and Betts who could probably fit in LF, CF or at 2B). They have the budget to fill in holes. This is a team in a very enviable position, that doesn't need to re-sign aging guys like Drew and Gomes, or outbid the Yankees for Lester and Uehara, to compete next year. They need some of the young guys to play better and they need to make smart decisions to fill in elsewhere. That may mean re-signing Lester if they come to an agreement (I hope they do). That may mean letting Lester go if he's going to be outrageously expensive. 
 
Not a whole lot is going right this year at the MLB level beyond Bogaerts, but it seems like a lot of bad luck and a couple decisions that hurt in the short-term, and not some big failure of design. Again, most of the same guys as last year have dropped off (through 65 games), the additions have underperformed (except Bogaerts), and there have been multiple injuries. 

 

[Plympton91]

I think what P91 is missing is that performances are incredibly variable. You pay more for guys who are proven, and hopefully they form your core, but they can fall apart very quickly. This should have been learned from 2012-13, but I guess not.
 
I mean, just one calendar year ago, Middlebrooks was a 3b of the future, Bradley was ready to step in, Buchholz was looking amazing, Lester had an ERA in the mid-4s (after a high-4s performance in 2012), Uehara only had 1 save, Mookie Betts was just a top-20 prospect with a hot start, and that's just off the top of my head.
 
So when you start re-signing guys because you have the budget and they were good last year, well, you run into problems. 
 
If you take a step back, you can see that the Sox have 6 very solid pitching prospects in the high minors, a lot of other young talent elsewhere, and some guys who could rebound and pitch well in Buchholz and Doubront. They have prospect depth at most places (including two catchers and Betts who could probably fit in LF, CF or at 2B). They have the budget to fill in holes. This is a team in a very enviable position, that doesn't need to re-sign aging guys like Drew and Gomes, or outbid the Yankees for Lester and Uehara, to compete next year. They need some of the young guys to play better and they need to make smart decisions to fill in elsewhere. That may mean re-signing Lester if they come to an agreement (I hope they do). That may mean letting Lester go if he's going to be outrageously expensive. 
 
Not a whole lot is going right this year at the MLB level beyond Bogaerts, but it seems like a lot of bad luck and a couple decisions that hurt in the short-term, and not some big failure of design. Again, most of the same guys as last year have dropped off (through 65 games), the additions have underperformed (except Bogaerts), and there have been multiple injuries. 

 
There was no time where I thought Middlebrooks was the 3rd baseman of the future and I quickly lost my enthusiasm for Bradley after seeing the hole in his swing the size of the Grand Canyon. Uehara may only have had one save, and his historic run is probably due to end at any moment, but, in the two years before the Red Sox signed him he had ERA's of 2.85, 2.35 and 1.75 (FIP of 2.40 / 3.02 / 2.40) with WHIPs of .95, .72, and .64.  He didn't exactly come out of nowhere, and I doubt he'll flame out barring a catastrophic injury.
 
Your assessment of the farm system is so rose colored that I'm tempted to find out what the color name for "bright rose" is.   The 4 of the 6 pitching prospects have ridiculously high walk rates, and only one has the strikeout rate to compensate. Owens looks great, but let's let him get to AAA before we declare him the next ace of the Boston rotation.  De La Rosa has a growing sample of mediocre to poor big-league appearances post-TJ surgery; Webster crashed and burned last season due to poor command and shows no signs of having improved that with a higher AAA walk rate this year.  Ranaudo has never had more than short stretches of competence in between injuries and general suckitude, despite being old for the level he was at (by standards of actual prospects).  Matt Barnes has a AAA ERA of 4.69 to date, despite being 24 years old.  That doesn't exactly scream "future John Lester" to me.
 
On the hitting side, Betts looks like the real deal, and Swihart's development is very promising.  I see no reason to be all that excited about anyone else, and particularly no reason to be that excited about any outfielders.  Both Vazquez has to be seen as having a suspect bat at this point.  Middlebrooks has suspect plate coverage and Cecchini has suspect power.  The rest of Pawtucket is organizational filler, except maybe Brentz.
 
Have you looked at the list of available free agents for next year?  Outside of guys the Red Sox have, and superstars they've clearly indicated they won't even bid on, there's a lot of nothing.   Failure to resign the guys they have will result in a 2015 that rivals 2012 and 2014.   Blech.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
And Jacoby has been solid for NY so far (thanks to a nice recent run):  112 ops+, 18 sb.  But he's been worth 1.0 bWAR.  JBj has been worth 0.0 bWAR.
 
So Ellsbury --> Bradley has cost the Sox, what, one game?  
 
(Which makes me question WAR, because Ellsbury has been MUCH better than Bradley.  Unless, of course, Bradley's defense really has been beyond incredible.)

This is why it's always good to break the WAR numbers down to their components. Much like with OPS. It's also why you shouldn't put much stock into the defensive metrics at this point in the season. If you go to Fangraphs you'll see that Ellsbury has a wOBA of .336 which translates to a Park Adjusted RAA of 3.1. JBJ has a wOBA of .263. His PA RAA is -9.9. So, all of his WAR value is coming from his defense. 
 
B-Ref has Ellsbury worth 3 runs above average as a hitter and JBJ worth -11. These are the values using their rBAT stat.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

So your solution for competing in 2015 is to rely on constructing a team by open bidding in the free agent market.  Because all the guys who are going to be "resigned" in your plans are FAs in 2015. 

 
Hey, don't knock the strategy. Didn't it work for the Angels after they won the Series in 2002?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Other than the Punto trade--which was really more a redo than a sale--when have the Sox been sellers? My memory is bad.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

If this team hasn't turned it around in another month or so, I think it's about time to think of selling with an eye towards retooling for 2015.
 
I don't, however, think every salable piece should, or needs to be moved either. 
 
I'd hang on to Lackey, Napoli, Victorino and probably Nava (as he's either extremely valuable to us, or completely worthless to everyone else).
 
Koji, I'd like to keep and extend, but admittedly, that's the homer in me speaking. Lester, I'd try to extend as well, but for more practical reasons.
 
I'd sell on Pierzynski, Drew, Gomes (though I'd be a bit sad about it), and Peavy. I'd see what useful parts could be had for Breslow, Badenhop, Capuano and Mujica. 
 
Cecchini hasn't showed a lot at AAA yet, so that makes a decision on Middlebrooks really difficult. If he winds up being a plus bat at third, we can absolutely use him for the next few seasons. If he continues to hit .200, he's not going to net much anyway. 

 

[EricFeczko]

I don't think it is simple to set a hard deadline for when the sox are buyers/sellers. The amount of uncertainty in the market, coupled with a second wildcard spot that makes the wildcard less valuable overall, sort of trumps the ability to identify which teams are buyers and sellers. Simply put, it depends on where the sox are and whether there are any opportunities to sell high on a player that we don't need.
 
In terms of where the sox are, I think its safe to assume they will attempt to compete next year. In order to do so, they will have to resign Lester because there is no lefthander of his caliber on the free market next year. Therefore any trade made in mid-season will be an attempt to boost the team in 2015. A quick look at the offensive/defensive/pitching numbers makes it clear where the sox problems lie: the outfield (where the red sox are dead last in production), third base, and catcher. Since catchers are a valuable commodity, and the red sox have several players who could play at third base next year, any trade made at the deadline will either boost outfield depth, accumulate high-ceiling prospects (unlikely), or acquire an MLB-ready excellent outfielder that is becoming too expensive for a team that is not going to win this year (e.g. Stanton. Also, completely unrealistic and improbable).

That being said, the potential list of major league players that would net something in trade is very small. Players with expiring contracts are less valuable to teams now because teams can no longer acquire draft pick compensation for a 2-3 month rental. A player like Jake Peavy may not even be worth a C-level prospect, even if the sox eat a portion of his contract. Below are a list of players that have played well this year, I've bolded my preferences for players that have solid trade value right now:
 
Position players:

Xander Bogaerts (1.7 fWAR, 120 wRC+, .353 BABIP)
Dustin Pedroia (1.4 fWAR, 100 wRC+, .302 BABIP)
Mike Napoli (1.2 fWAR, 129 wRC+, 0.339 BABIP)
AJP (0.8 fWAR, 91 wRC+, 0.310 BABIP)
Brock Holt (0.8 fWAR, 126 wRC+, 0.406 BABIP)
David Ortiz (0.7 fWAR, 117 wRC+, 0.251 BABIP)
Jonny Gomes (0.1 fWAR, 98 wRC+, 0.295 BABIP)
 
Pitchers:

John Lackey (2.3 fWAR, 3.18 ERA, 2.97 FIP)
Jon Lester (2.3 fWAR, 3.52 ERA, 2.92 FIP)
Koji Uehara (1.2 fWAR, 0.65 ERA, 1.71 FIP)
Andrew Miller (0.8 fWAR, 2.77 ERA, 1.58 FIP)
Brandon Workman (0.7 fWAR, 2.86 ERA, 3.12 FIP)
Junichi Tazawa (0.6 fWAR, 2.28 ERA, 2.79 FIP)
Jake Peavy (0.5 fWAR, 4.76 ERA, 4.78 FIP)
Burke Badenhop (0.4 fWAR, 1.77 ERA, 3.34 FIP)

Right now, trading our position players doesn't make a lot of sense. Guys like Stephen Drew and WMB have almost no trade value, and are unlikely to garner a great deal of trade value over the next three weeks. While Bogaerts is a tradeable asset, he is also putting up an incredible rookie season: Xander is third best hitter by wRC+ among all major league shortstops. Jonny Gomes has an expiring contract and can only hit lefties, making him less valuable as a trade-chip. The most interesting trade chip the red sox have is Brock Holt. He has put up great offensive numbers over the past few weeks, these numbers seem unsustainable in the long run (see his .406 BABIP), but he can play not-terrible defense for multiple positions on the field. Because he is under team control, you may be able to deal him to a team that doesn't need him this year for some semi-decent prospect or a backup outfielder that can hit righties.

On the pitching side, the sox are dealing from a position of relative strength. I wouldn't recommend trading Lester because you are unlikely recoup much value in a 2-month rental relative to draft pick compensation, and such a trade would jeopardize any ability to compete in 2015. The bullpen guys may be valuable for a GFIN, and because relievers may remain overvalued in the market, are trade chips that might net a B-level prospect or outfield depth. Workman is another interesting trade chip, but unless you are packaging him with prospects for a sure thing (e.g. betts/workman/RLDR for Jameson Tallion), he could be more valuable to the red sox as an MLB player.

The other option is to deal prospects for an outfielder like Giancarlo Stanton or (more cheaply) Heyward/Harper. However, as P91 points out, we currently have a deep farm system that has few superstar-impact players. Apart from Henry Owens or Trey Ball, we don't have potential 1/2 starters in our system. Betts and Cecchini are our greatest position prospects right now, and because those positions are in need, I'm not sure trading either makes sense. Any package for a starting outfielder will require cheap major league talent; Bogaerts is the only player that merits such a description.

EDIT: I added spaces for clarity. I clearly wrote too much garbage

 

[cannonball 1729]

Other than the Punto trade--which was really more a redo than a sale--when have the Sox been sellers? My memory is bad.

 
The last time before that was August '06.  They dumped David Wells for a catching prospect that became George Kottaras.

 

[ivanvamp]

They were sort of sellers in '10; trading Ramon Ramirez and Manny Declarmen at the deadline (and dropping that years version of Sizemore in Jeremy Hermida) when they were 6 1/2 out of the WC.
I mean, it's true that the Sox haven't often been sellers, but this is also one of their worst teams in a long time. It's a worse team than the '12 Red Sox were at this point, and by quite a bit. They are playing at a 74 win pace.

That is really just incredibly hard to fathom. Worse than 2012. Good grief.....how depressing.

 

[Devizier]

Maybe they could dump Pierzynski on a team that has an even worse catcher, like the Yankees or Blue Jays. They might get a fringey prospect in return.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

That is really just incredibly hard to fathom. Worse than 2012. Good grief.....how depressing.

 
How short our memories.. the 2012 team was 55-55 on August 6th. They then went 5-10 leading up to the trade, and I don't remember what happened after that.

 

[Plympton91]

Yeah, the 2012 team always was a tease in that there wee so many stars it was easy to fantasize about a 10 game winning streak right around the corner. This team just can't hit.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Am I Pollyannish for thinking that this team is a good bat away from being really good?

I mean the pitching is decent. Defense is really strong, speed is there... There's just not much for hitting. A slugging LF would sort of save our asses IMO.

 

[MuzzyField]

I'd settle for more average speed. This team has too much exceptionally slow, they're lugging pianos around the bases.

 

[Rasputin]

 
How short our memories.. the 2012 team was 55-55 on August 6th. They then went 5-10 leading up to the trade, and I don't remember what happened after that.

What happened after that is that the Sox couldn't field a team of major league players.

This team May have a worse record than the 2012 did at this point in the season but it is also on pace to win nine more games.

Also, this team is liable to be better in the second half and because of the trade, that team was very much worse.

 

[Rasputin]

Am I Pollyannish for thinking that this team is a good bat away from being really good?

I mean the pitching is decent. Defense is really strong, speed is there... There's just not much for hitting. A slugging LF would sort of save our asses IMO.

I don't think so but I am also not entirely sure it's necessary.

Nava looks like he is back to his prior self which makes the platoon with Gomes viable.

Bradley has looked pretty good the past week. If that is real improvement and not just noise then we may just be a healthy Victorino away from being 90 pct of last year's team.

I'd like more OF depth but that might be Mookie Betts.

If we went into the playoffs with Nava/Gomes, Bradley, Vic in the OF plus Wombat, Bogaerts, Drew, Pedey, and Nap with Holt as Zobrist, I think we would be okay.

 

[Rasputin]

No, this team is on pace to win 73 games. That's 4 more than the 2012 team (69 wins).

Huh, I must have read the wrong line. The point still stands, though.