The sixers and building a winner
- Thread starter LondonSox
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So reportedly the kings first round pick is top ten protected in 2018 only... And UNPROTECTED in 2019
Holy shit.
Holy shit.
Richaun Holmes fractured his elbow in the last summer league game, and will miss six to eight weeks.
That's a tough break since he looked pretty good in his time on the court.
That's a tough break since he looked pretty good in his time on the court.
Joel "Bowie Walton" Embiid: Another foot surgery, expected to miss 2015-2016 season as well
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/7/11/8933635/joel-embiid-injury-philadelphia-76ers-foot-surgery
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/7/11/8933635/joel-embiid-injury-philadelphia-76ers-foot-surgery
I do feel sorry for Embiid. He seems like a truly talented player and it would have been fun to watch him. Second surgery does not bode well.
As for Hinkie and the Sixers, so far their plan has not worked out quite the way they hoped it would. That, I don't mind at all.
As for Hinkie and the Sixers, so far their plan has not worked out quite the way they hoped it would. That, I don't mind at all.
I have absolutely no sympathy for a team that thinks that the only way to get better is to intentionally lose games in order to increase a minuscule percentage of landing the right to draft a 19-year-old kid who has never played a single minute of professional basketball.
Statman said:
I think people need to remember they went down this path in large part because of the disastrous Bynum trade. Unlike the Celtics, they had no assets to build around other than their own picks. If we had just amnestied KG and Pierce, didn't have the Nets picks, and the only quality young player on the roster was Jrue Holiday I would want to tank too.
Statman said:
So your suggestion for a team in their horrible situation is what?
Spare me your righteous indignation when it's exactly what the system provides as the best (only) way to rebuild.
Personally I enjoy seeing the system exposed, and the fully rational decision to play young players and give them a shot, instead of paying known average players, while at the same time building via the draft and keeping maximum flexability. The fact that the sixers actually played some fun, if very inconsistent, basketball is a nice perk too.
Further by doing this rebuild they were in a position to do this Kings trade, which EVERYONE would like to do. And is a position to swoop for any Hardens etc that appear.
I have no idea what happens with Embiid, it obviously doesn't look good but he's not dead. As it is the Sixers have built a vastly improved team despite a lot of bad luck (never picked above 3, imagine if they had got Wiggins as planned for example, Embiid injury, all of the picks falling right on the lottery protection this year etc). Noel, Okafor, Sauce Castillo, and a bunch of role players with Saric, Embiid potentially to add in a year plus their own pick, lakers, heat and Thunder, plus a Kings pick swap.
I'm very impressed with how the Sixers have NOT gone down the road of the perpetual bottom finishers like the Kings. Those types of teams mainly seem to take their annual draft choice, cross their fingers, and get one DeMarcus Cousins or Blake Griffin every 10 years.
What the Sixers are doing is fairly different in my opinion. Obviously they are tanking each year, but they are also being extremely aggressive about making moves at the margins. The Holliday trade is going to end up getting them Noel (whom I think the Celtics would deal any player on their roster for in a heartbeat), as well as Saric next year, and their first round pick back from the Magic after that. That series of moves, that turned a decent guard into 3 top-10ish picks is one we very rarely see bad teams make.
I also think a lot of other typical tanking teams would have held on to MCW, but the Sixers decided his shooting wasn't going to improve, and have effectively turned an 11 pick who didn't look like a great bet to improve after what will likely be a top-7 pick this year.
Their extreme aggressiveness about minimizing salary let them pull of the Kings heist.
Rebuilding from a situation as bad as post-Bynum Philly requires a ton of luck, but I really like how the Sixers seem to be aggressively making their own breaks. As I've said before, except for coaching, I'd take their situation over that of the Celtics, and the Celtics had a better starting point 2 years ago.
What the Sixers are doing is fairly different in my opinion. Obviously they are tanking each year, but they are also being extremely aggressive about making moves at the margins. The Holliday trade is going to end up getting them Noel (whom I think the Celtics would deal any player on their roster for in a heartbeat), as well as Saric next year, and their first round pick back from the Magic after that. That series of moves, that turned a decent guard into 3 top-10ish picks is one we very rarely see bad teams make.
I also think a lot of other typical tanking teams would have held on to MCW, but the Sixers decided his shooting wasn't going to improve, and have effectively turned an 11 pick who didn't look like a great bet to improve after what will likely be a top-7 pick this year.
Their extreme aggressiveness about minimizing salary let them pull of the Kings heist.
Rebuilding from a situation as bad as post-Bynum Philly requires a ton of luck, but I really like how the Sixers seem to be aggressively making their own breaks. As I've said before, except for coaching, I'd take their situation over that of the Celtics, and the Celtics had a better starting point 2 years ago.
I think it's a bit much to say its the only way to rebuild. The success rate for tanking is pretty miserable, and the title winning teams in the NBA recently have not been teams doing what the Sixers are doing. You can argue its better if you're smart about it, but that goes both ways. The Rockets are probably closer to winning a title than the Sixers are for instance, and they've built that team without tanking. Not every approach to a non-tank rebuild results getting "stuck in the middle", and sometimes rebuilds that seem "stuck in the middle" win a title anyway (Dallas, 2011).LondonSox said:
Plus, there's a broader issue that "seasons matter." I don't know what your utility function is like, but I'm guessing Rockets fans enjoyed last year more than 76ers fans did, even though the teams won exactly the same number of titles. That's probably going to be true next year, and the year after that too. There is value to putting a competitive product on the court, even if it doesn't result in a title.
I think it's a bit questionable to say the Sixers are running bad. They only had a 20% chance of landing Wiggins for instance. I don't know what the odds of Embiid getting reinjured were, but there was talk of this being a possibility when he was drafted.LondonSox said:
bowiac said:
On the first point I missed the ? after only as in (only?). Houston I think may well have gone a similar path if they hadn't had a great opportunity to grab their franchise player. Bottom line that's what the Sixers are doing. Keeping every asset they can, cutting anything which isn't an asset (as playing young kids and potentially catching a big break and having them break out with playing time etc can create more assets). They haven't had a superstar be available for cents on the USD, but if one is they are in as good a shape as anyone to make a move.
They're building from the draft, and stockpiling. Which the Rockets were sort of doing. I'd argue anyway.
The second point I mean in their first tanking season they got third pick from 2nd worst record. Then had Embiid get hurt pre draft. If Embiid isn't hurt they get their target Wiggins. If the bucks (worst record) win they may well have taken Parker anyway. Etc If Embiid is hurt and recovers as expected then again better position than current.
Also they had the Lakers finish 4th worst in a top 5 protected pick, but not slip. Heat get the 10th pick in a top 10 protected trade and OKC likewise just miss the playoffs in a lottery protected trade.
What was very plausible 2 very good picks and a chance of the lakers became none and both OKC and Miami picks look likely to be much worse.
I'm saying they haven't had a lot of luck. Miami 11th bit of luck, OKC sneaking playoffs, bit of luck, Lakers slipping in lottery OR Sixers moving up, etc. Embiid getting hurt originally, and not healing right, slipping to 3rd last year. ETC They haven't had a lot of good luck.
Their picks of Embiid and Okafor have both been basically the best they could do at the spot given the actions of others.
Houston was never considering tanking. Morey has been around for a while. They were collecting assets and rolling them over until a chance at a franchise player came around, but they were never considering a tear-down rebuild.LondonSox said:
I think it's a big stretch to argue that the Sixers and the Rockets are doing the same thing. Even before they got Harden, Houston was acquiring NBA-talents who would keep them out of the lottery, and drafting players who could contribute at the NBA level immediately as opposed to injury/Euro stashes. The Rockets aggressively avoided bottoming out, never drafting in the top 10 during this stretch. It's about as different a form of rebuild as you can have in the NBA.
I would have done almost the exact same thing, although some of my draft picks would have been different. The Holiday trade was really the inflection point I agree. Once Noel becomes available for Holiday, I'd go down that path. I'd have taken Noel, and I'd have drafted Embiid too, although that depends on how bad the health reports were. I thought Exum was a pretty plausible draft pick there (and still do). I didn't like the Saric pick - I would have gone with Nurkic or Capela there, and I don't really love Okafor (I preferred both Winslow and Mudiay). But those are quibbles really, and who knows who will be right about Saric vs. Nurkic/Capela, and Okafor vs. Winslow/Mudiay.lovegtm said:
Philosophically, I think Hinkie took the right approach. I just don't think it's "free", and I don't think it's the only path worth considering. It also has a real chance of being a failure, and that failure looks worse than an equivalent failure if Houston never takes the next step. I'm trying to push back against the idea that there's some kind of "next-level" stuff going on here. If Noel hadn't been available for instance, then my preferred rebuild might look quite different. My analysis of the Celtics rebuild is quite similar - I don't love all the picks apart from Smart, but I'd have done the same thing given the circumstances. And the result is that Celtics are a Vlade Divac change of heart away from being low-end title contenders.
bowiac said:
Yep - the year before the Rockets got Harden, the Rockets went 34-32 in a shortened season and had a bunch of solid young players including:
Chandler Parsons
Courtney Lee
Goran Dragic
Kyle Lowry
Patrick Patterson
Kevin Martin
Jordan Hill
Marcus Morris
Chase Budinger
All those guys have become starters or rotation players in the NBA and Houston had them all while they were 26 or younger (most 22/23 years old). That team looks a lot like the 2015 Celtics - a bunch of solid young guys, all legit NBA players but no future superstars in the bunch. They were also accumulating draft picks left and right and ensuring they weren't locked into any long-term contracts. When the time came to be able to acquire a star, they pounced on it. They were successful in part because they had a decent team already. Had the Rockets been 15-51 the year before, there's a huge risk he would've refused to sign an extension even if they offered the max, and there's zero chance that Howard would've followed him.
Ainge has been angling to make a blockbuster trade for a while. I am sure he is getting a bit frustrated it hasn't materialized, but in the process he hasn't gone the Hinkie route and destroyed all free agent credibility for the next 5 years. If this offseason has shown anything, it is that players are not just going to default to a team due to a big market anymore. They want to win. As such, I am glad the Celtics are not going on the multi-year tank mode. Ask Clippers fans how that feels or even Bulls fans post-MJ. The Sixers are learning that right now with Embiid.
NBA draft picks are super high variance even in the top-5. You can draft for years and years in the top 5/10 and never find a superstar, which is basically what the Sixers are praying for to build around. Bad ping pong ball luck, injuries, headcases, and the like just make it took tough to put all your eggs into the draft basket.
The Sixers are into the third year of their tank and after a boatload of picks, the only productive player they have on the roster today is Nerlens Noel. MCW was flipped again and was always more flash than substance, Grant has shown zero actual NBA skills, KJ McDaniels was shipped out, Saric is still over in Europe, and Embiid is looking like Oden Redux.
This whole plan by Philly seems to be similar to the 2003 Red Sox "closer by committee" idea. It looked great on paper and it all the research suggests it should be a good way to run things, but reality doesn't pan out that way. Philly has become scorched earth for free agents and even draft picks (see KJ McDaniels). They're into Year 3 and have zero hope right now of closing in on competing for at least 2-3 more years. In the long run, maybe all those picks pan out but early returns are bleak and in the meantime they are alienating fans and players alike.
Again what would you do that is better? Even with hindsight?
Free agents will come if the team has talent (which needs some draft picks to work out) or if the Sixers can offer more than others (which give the cap moves isn't now) or is competitive.
It's not even year three of a rebuild. The Sixers are in good draft shape. Have two talented big men, and a third who is hurt who might be even better. A new young shooter and a very talented stashed European.
I think even ignoring embiid they have POTENTIALLY four solid players all young all with lots of upside. They have really had one horrible result. Mcw was drafted looked at and before the league all realized he wasn't much good shipped out for a very valuable chip.
I don't know why you guys are so down and dismissive. I'd take Noel and Okafor very high in terms of talented young big men. Sauce we don't know but the kid can shoot. Saric looks very interesting. They need some wings and a point guard and for one or two of these guys to take a step forward to be ok.
Anyway we shall see. I think this is the last year of tanking, and maybe not even this. They won't try to lose.
Edit: given what we've seen in baseball (rays and astros) where it's harder I find the negativity and criticism a little odd.
Free agents will come if the team has talent (which needs some draft picks to work out) or if the Sixers can offer more than others (which give the cap moves isn't now) or is competitive.
It's not even year three of a rebuild. The Sixers are in good draft shape. Have two talented big men, and a third who is hurt who might be even better. A new young shooter and a very talented stashed European.
I think even ignoring embiid they have POTENTIALLY four solid players all young all with lots of upside. They have really had one horrible result. Mcw was drafted looked at and before the league all realized he wasn't much good shipped out for a very valuable chip.
I don't know why you guys are so down and dismissive. I'd take Noel and Okafor very high in terms of talented young big men. Sauce we don't know but the kid can shoot. Saric looks very interesting. They need some wings and a point guard and for one or two of these guys to take a step forward to be ok.
Anyway we shall see. I think this is the last year of tanking, and maybe not even this. They won't try to lose.
Edit: given what we've seen in baseball (rays and astros) where it's harder I find the negativity and criticism a little odd.
I'm not sure I'm seeing a lot of negativity here London? I said "I would have done almost the exact same thing" - other posters have echoed similar sentiments. The "issue" I'm pushing back on is the idea that this is somehow the only way to rebuild, or that its clearly the best way. Rather, I think the 76ers, Rockets, and Celtics have each adopted three pretty different methods (hard tank for many years, single year tank, and never tank), and all three have mostly made sense to me given the respective circumstances.
I was referring to the comments like
". That it seems to be working out so terribly suggests few other organizations will be so blatant about a similar effort (or lack there of)."
" It looked great on paper and it all the research suggests it should be a good way to run things, but reality doesn't pan out that way. Philly has become scorched earth for free agents and even draft picks (see KJ McDaniels). They're into Year 3 and have zero hope right now of closing in on competing for at least 2-3 more years. In the long run, maybe all those picks pan out but early returns are bleak and in the meantime they are alienating fans and players alike."
". That it seems to be working out so terribly suggests few other organizations will be so blatant about a similar effort (or lack there of)."
" It looked great on paper and it all the research suggests it should be a good way to run things, but reality doesn't pan out that way. Philly has become scorched earth for free agents and even draft picks (see KJ McDaniels). They're into Year 3 and have zero hope right now of closing in on competing for at least 2-3 more years. In the long run, maybe all those picks pan out but early returns are bleak and in the meantime they are alienating fans and players alike."
Rudy Pemberton said:
I think this is the crux of the issue. Can Philly's owners and fans endure a 5-7 year rebuild? That's a long time to sit and wait and endure 15-20 win teams. Yes, they are in Year 3 but Year 3 is likely to bring very little to no improvement on the court once again. Even if Okafor or Noel eventually blossoms into a true star like Kevin Durant (unlikely, but let's play along), they won't be ready to compete until 2-3 years from now. Young guys don't really start dominating and leading their teams to playoff runs until year 3/4/5 of their career. Noel has one year under his belt, Okafor 0. It will be at least 2 years until one of those guys can potentially carry a team deep into the playoffs. That means a 5-6 year rebuild, at best.
I'd much rather be in the position of the Bucks or Celtics, who while bottoming out for a brief time never truly strip-mined their teams for multiple years. They bottomed, collected top pick(s) and then used them wisely as well as utilized free agency and the trade market to upgrade their rosters. They found great, young coaches who are helping their young players learn how to play winning basketball. They didn't outright alienate their fanbase.
To Rudy's point, I am sure that if 15 teams had tried the "closer by committee" all at once, enough may have succeeded it to make the practice more commonplace. If Philly's tanking practice were more successful, it might spur others. Not that they are the first to do this - the Celtics in the 90s were not above tanking during the ML Carr days, nor were the post-Jordan Bulls - and remember how that turned out. The reality is that these long term tanks via the draft are just super-high variance because of the bust rate on picks. Embiid may never play. Who knows if and when Saric comes over. And everyone else they've drafted save Noel has done nothing remotely productive in the NBA.
At some point, Hinkie can and should actually start flipping these picks back to get young and productive pieces that can help the team win. How many more lottery picks and 2nd round picks and rights to swap picks does he need in the warchest before he actually converts it into productive talent and not intangible assets? Given there's only 15 roster spots at a time and 5 players on the court, there's a diminishing marginal return to having 6-7 picks every year into the indefinite future - only so many can actually get on the court and prove whether they are useful or not.
As for what I would have done differently, I probably would not have dealt Thaddeus Young. At the time, Young was a very productive, 25 year old who likely could've been signed to a reasonable extension if Philly tried. Each of the last two years he's ranked among the top 20-30 SFs/PFs in the NBA based on RPM. They got Luc Mbah a Moute and a Heat pick that will wind up in the 20's in return. I'm sorry, but I have no idea why you would not just keep Young and sign him to a reasonable extension - he's productive, healthy, and young enough to be a part of your roster after the rebuild; he wasn't some 30 year old vet looking to win now. Given the Sixers have flirted with the cap floor each year under Hinkie, that's a way better use of resources than just dumping him for a pick that was pretty low likelihood of having a big payoff.
EDIT - pick received was the Heat conditional 1st, not Cavs.
EDIT - pick received was the Heat conditional 1st, not Cavs.
That's not unfair re young, though if they had got the 11-14th pick as it looked like until late last year it probably would have been a wash. But that was pretty optimal outcome, 11-14th in a pretty deep draft. It could end up as pretty crappy next year for sure.
I think you'll see an improvement this year, one of the hints is the pick swap with the kings this year. Most likely that's a nice cheap lottery fluke for no cost punt this year, but Hinkie is likely expecting a improvement this year.
To some extent the timeline has been pushed back by the picks/ value Hinkie has taken. Noel and Embiid and Saric all delayed payoff. There's none of that in Okafor. If some of the picks had come this year, Miami and OKC in particular, that would also have helped. But the team is YOUNG this year and likely will struggle and still be pretty bad. You're probably hoping for some encouraging signs on Okafor and Sauce Castillo and more growth from Noel.
edit: The point re the delayed payoff is that clearly Hinkie doesn't feel (or didn't at least last year) under pressure to speed things up. I think the fans are pretty bought in by the way, casual fans not so much of course, but Philly is pretty much embracing the process (TM). I think it helps that across the way the Phillies are showing what happens if you aren't decisive too.
I think you'll see an improvement this year, one of the hints is the pick swap with the kings this year. Most likely that's a nice cheap lottery fluke for no cost punt this year, but Hinkie is likely expecting a improvement this year.
To some extent the timeline has been pushed back by the picks/ value Hinkie has taken. Noel and Embiid and Saric all delayed payoff. There's none of that in Okafor. If some of the picks had come this year, Miami and OKC in particular, that would also have helped. But the team is YOUNG this year and likely will struggle and still be pretty bad. You're probably hoping for some encouraging signs on Okafor and Sauce Castillo and more growth from Noel.
edit: The point re the delayed payoff is that clearly Hinkie doesn't feel (or didn't at least last year) under pressure to speed things up. I think the fans are pretty bought in by the way, casual fans not so much of course, but Philly is pretty much embracing the process (TM). I think it helps that across the way the Phillies are showing what happens if you aren't decisive too.
LondonSox said:
For me the biggest issue is trading away almost all of the quality players and not having veterans to shoulder the responsibilities of being both the on court and off court leaders of the team.
If I were running an NBA team that was terrible, I would want to have someone like Kobe, Carmelo Anthony, D-Wade, Garnett, etc around. Those guys kill two birds with one stone; they won't play up to their contracts thus providing the crucial top 6 pick, and they also let the rookies be rookies instead of making some poor guy like Michael Carter-Williams try to carry the team. I have no proof, but anecdotal evidence suggests this results in poor player development.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
They haven't given themselves much of a chance, having traded so many of their draft picks and young players away.
The nature vs nurture thing is a never-ending chicken or egg argument in every walk of life. I don't want to derail the thread arguing over it. But in my opinion teams are better off creating a stable environment with some quality veterans even on teams that are trying to get better through the draft.
moly99 said:
I've never really seen any good evidence either way on this point but that's exactly what Jason Richardson and Luc Mbah a Moute were there for. I'm not sure how many of those you need. There's only so many Paul Pierce types (and I think he's a great example of what you mean) around, and frankly many of them are chasing a ring rather than wanting to coach the kids.
If you believe Vets are needed then this is a disadvantage of being bad of course, you have to overpay those ageing vets to have a chance to attract them and this is absolutely a fair criticism. Vets don't want to play in Philly, see AK 47 refusing to report etc, and that's not a good look.
That said it's a great place to attract young talent who wants to play, vs getting buried on a bench on a contender.
I feel like the negativity from agents is a bit weird, I get it for the big contract names, but anyone half decent is going to get minutes and lots of counting stats and likely be available in trade to a contender if they play well and make themselves interesting.
If you're a star fine of course you wait until Philly shows some signs of life to consider taking their money vs the same elsewhere, but as a bench guy or a one skill guy?
I suspect in part its that opinion that they are deliberately losing, which I think is likely behind us. In the sense that they have maybe 3/5 of a starting lineup and want them to play together and improve, and see what sticks beside those guys. I don't think they'll be good, but I think better than last year and likely to be improving over time if anything. But a team of rookies and second year guys isn't likely to make any meaningful noise, even in the east.
The Clippers, Wizards, Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Suns, Bucks all say hi. The only teams that have been consistently bad the past 7 or 8 years have been the Kings and Hornets, and even that is debateable. So...yeah....your statement would be true, if it weren't demonstrably false.Devizier said:
The Clippers were terrible for 30 years! Even after their brief Renaissance during the Elton Brand years they resumed being terrible. They are the classic example of a "hole" team, littered with false starts and blowups. It took the league gifting them Chris Paul to break the cycle.lovegtm said:
This is the story for so many bad teams -- the Sonics lucked out with Durant, but if they had drafted Oden, all bets are off. Of course, it only takes a cursory reading of NBA history to recognize the number of teams that settle to the bottom only to get air for brief periods (the Bucks with Ray Allen and Sam Cassell). Even when teams get a historically great player, like the Wolves did, they can still suck.
Of course, you could appreciate this, or you could opt for glib pomposity. Your choice.
But he picked 7 teams in the past 10 years that have successfully dug themselves out of the "hole." And of course there was luck involved, just like the Spurs were lucky to win the Duncan lottery. In fact they were lucky twice with that: once when the ping pong ball bounced their way and once when he turned out to be a generational talent with an uncanny ability to stay heallthy. Sure many of us thought he might be that good, but there are no guarantees.
just for completeness:
the Wolves have been bad for 11 straight years
the 76ers have been terrible to OK for 12 straight seasons (they won one playoff series during that time and that was in a strike-shortened season)
the Pistons have been bad for 7 straight seasons
I'm not sure what we're debating, but it does seem that once a team gets bad, the badness tends to persist for multiple seasons and it is not that easy to become good again. I wouldn't say it's "rare" - on a long enough time horizon every terrible team will eventually become good again due to some combination of smart moves and/or luck. But, it's not like the NFL or baseball where seemingly every year a couple teams go from terrible to contenders in one season.
the Wolves have been bad for 11 straight years
the 76ers have been terrible to OK for 12 straight seasons (they won one playoff series during that time and that was in a strike-shortened season)
the Pistons have been bad for 7 straight seasons
I'm not sure what we're debating, but it does seem that once a team gets bad, the badness tends to persist for multiple seasons and it is not that easy to become good again. I wouldn't say it's "rare" - on a long enough time horizon every terrible team will eventually become good again due to some combination of smart moves and/or luck. But, it's not like the NFL or baseball where seemingly every year a couple teams go from terrible to contenders in one season.
One big difference of course is that Philly is a big market, and oen that will really embrace a team if it does well. While Philly can't attract free agents now, everything they are trying to do is find a foundation star or two. Once they have that and are competitive I see no reason that they can't attract free agents. Philly isn't NYC or LA but it's a big market and the city is a lot less crap than it used to be.
This is a lot harder for Minnesota or Detroit or the Bucks etc. I don't think it's fair to assume Philly can NEVER attract free agents.
There is a lowe grantland piece on the Suns rebuild (and a brief comparison to the Sixers)
The Suns is a more typical one where the owner isn't prepared to wait, so you get one or two shots at a draft and then you have to make the best of it. So an Oden or Embiid is killer.
Whereas the Sixers owners are in, and they bought so cheap, the team is worth a lot more than they paid and is making a profit so they aren't being forced to push. If Hinkie keeps doing this he'll eventually hit on a high lottery pick and build around that player. Of course the longer it takes the harder it will be to get the fans to keep faith, and the players will give up on the team etc. They may still never win anything or even compete, but they will eventually find their star and go. Everyone is on the same page.
It's a good read as usual. The Suns are doing a more "normal" rebuild but compete, and there is a good chance they end up in the middle. The Sixers seem determined to be good or bad and only in the middle when they are confident it's on the way to good. It could mean bad for a LONG time. We shall see.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-tale-of-two-cities-phoenix-and-philly-plot-different-courses-to-contention/
This is a lot harder for Minnesota or Detroit or the Bucks etc. I don't think it's fair to assume Philly can NEVER attract free agents.
There is a lowe grantland piece on the Suns rebuild (and a brief comparison to the Sixers)
The Suns is a more typical one where the owner isn't prepared to wait, so you get one or two shots at a draft and then you have to make the best of it. So an Oden or Embiid is killer.
Whereas the Sixers owners are in, and they bought so cheap, the team is worth a lot more than they paid and is making a profit so they aren't being forced to push. If Hinkie keeps doing this he'll eventually hit on a high lottery pick and build around that player. Of course the longer it takes the harder it will be to get the fans to keep faith, and the players will give up on the team etc. They may still never win anything or even compete, but they will eventually find their star and go. Everyone is on the same page.
It's a good read as usual. The Suns are doing a more "normal" rebuild but compete, and there is a good chance they end up in the middle. The Sixers seem determined to be good or bad and only in the middle when they are confident it's on the way to good. It could mean bad for a LONG time. We shall see.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-tale-of-two-cities-phoenix-and-philly-plot-different-courses-to-contention/
moly99 said:
Okay, then the next obvious question would be: who were the quality veterans that Hinkie traded away? Their roster when Hinkie took over consisted of Lavoy Allen, Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, Spencer Hawes, Jrue Holiday, Royal Ivey, Jason Richardson, Evan Turner, Dorell Wright, Thad Young, and Nick Young.
Quality veterans don't want to play on rosters like that.
Jrue Holiday was and is a quality veteran, but that trade was too juicy to pass up. Can totally understand why Hinkie did it. Thad Young I already mentioned - I think that was a bit of a useless trade, as getting at best a pick in the 11-14 range you are unlikely to get a player as good as Young and the Sixers weren't cap constrained (quite the opposite). Lavoy Allen has turned himself into a really nice player in Indy and Hinkie effectively gave him away in the Turner/Granger swap. He's 26 years old and certainly a hell of a lot more useful piece than the likes of Henry Sims or other stiffs that PHI trotted out last year in the frontcourt.
Embiid breaks the same bone in his foot. It'll be years between the last time he played competitive basketball and the next time he plays.
You have to wonder at this point if he'll even match Oden's 105 career games.
Whatever Smart's upside ends up being, it's scary to think about how things would look for the C's if you pulled him from the equation and replaced him with Embiid, who very likely could have been Ainge's pick at 2 or 3 with better lotto luck.
Whatever Smart's upside ends up being, it's scary to think about how things would look for the C's if you pulled him from the equation and replaced him with Embiid, who very likely could have been Ainge's pick at 2 or 3 with better lotto luck.
Yup you got to think he's a long shot to ever really play at this point. What a shame he really could have been something special.
Best case it was a hairline Crack they missed before he started playing again and made it worse, but they caught it before it got serious. Or they just missed it originally
Damn shame because it's likely worse.
Only hope is he's young
Best case it was a hairline Crack they missed before he started playing again and made it worse, but they caught it before it got serious. Or they just missed it originally
Damn shame because it's likely worse.
Only hope is he's young
I'm optimistic he'll fully recover and play next year, and hopeful that he'll be a big part of the Sixers' future.
He was still growing, and supposedly that affects the healing of this sort of injury. A lot will depend on how closely he keeps to the rehab program they have for him. That was a problem for him at times the past year, but perhaps the experience of having suffered this setback will keep him on track this year.
He was still growing, and supposedly that affects the healing of this sort of injury. A lot will depend on how closely he keeps to the rehab program they have for him. That was a problem for him at times the past year, but perhaps the experience of having suffered this setback will keep him on track this year.
This time, the 76ers plan to monitor Embiid's weight and not allow him to dunk the ball while practicing by himself, supposedly under team supervision.
Hinkie is so full of shit to talk about getting it right the first second time around. Now he has the proper team in place. I understand Embiid got his first surgery before signing with the team but the rehab is what did him in.
Hinkie is so full of shit to talk about getting it right the first second time around. Now he has the proper team in place. I understand Embiid got his first surgery before signing with the team but the rehab is what did him in.
I don't think that's really try, they didn't do a bone graft before, but apparently that's not uncommon the first time round.
A lot of the weight and non training stuff was proved incorrect, mainly the weight thing. You have to remember that the Philly media eats its young and hates having to suffer through the rebuild. That 300 lbs Embiid is fat stuff was nonsense.
That said am I shocked that a kid his age struggled to keep up rehab the right way, no but let's get it right this time.
Also let's remember essentially even after the docs started saying he needed surgery Embiid felt fine, he was practising HARD and feeling no pain, so it's not a shock that he started pushing back. The kid wants to play. He feels fine and wants to get his career started.
The Sixers might be one of the few teams that would do this second surgery and not let him play and see what happened. I think that helps Embiid's chances of making it, but it can't feel good. Esp with Okafor doing what he wants to do.
A lot of the weight and non training stuff was proved incorrect, mainly the weight thing. You have to remember that the Philly media eats its young and hates having to suffer through the rebuild. That 300 lbs Embiid is fat stuff was nonsense.
That said am I shocked that a kid his age struggled to keep up rehab the right way, no but let's get it right this time.
Also let's remember essentially even after the docs started saying he needed surgery Embiid felt fine, he was practising HARD and feeling no pain, so it's not a shock that he started pushing back. The kid wants to play. He feels fine and wants to get his career started.
The Sixers might be one of the few teams that would do this second surgery and not let him play and see what happened. I think that helps Embiid's chances of making it, but it can't feel good. Esp with Okafor doing what he wants to do.
ifmanis5 said:
It's non guaranteed after the first year I believe and it DECLINES in value every year. If he's remotely useful it's a bargain. If he's bad it costs them nothing to cut him and move on.
THE HORROR!!!!!
Seriously though, I mean he can pass and shoot, is a decent fit, is dirt cheap and it's a great contract with minimal risk (2.1 million this year when they are under the cap anyway)
Every time I see this thread bumped, I assume some new, awful thing has befallen Embiid. I was guessing Ebola this time.
I love the signing. He will be a late bloomer, but is a great passer that can run any offense. His defense sucks, he's not a guy you win a championship with but he's a great point guard to feed young players while they learn the game.
Agreed. Almost no risk. No one like him on the roster. Will help having a Passer like him to get it into the post.Drocca said:
Hinkied
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