The sixers and building a winner

[LondonSox]

I read up a lot on the sixers ahead of the draft, and my wife is from Philly so was of interest because of that too.
I find the plan the sixers are using pretty fascinating and pretty compelling as a way to build a potential champion.

The sixers have been basically average for as long as I can remember except at the height of Iverson, and they really never did enough to support him - I mean can you without looking name a good second fiddle to Iverson?

Average esp in philly is not going to work forever.

Hinkie is potentially one of the new breed of nba gms, a Theo type potentially, with similar ownership buy in for the long term.

The trade last year in the draft was the thing dreams can be made of, a good but not great player for arguably the best talent in the draft and what turned into the number 10 pick in the most loaded draft in recent memory while simultaneously helping tank for that draft.

This year he turned that into saric and a 1st and a 2nd round pick.
While iit's clear that they wanted Wiggins embiid was pretty much agreed on as the number one talent in the draft pre the foot injury. Now he might be a bust but that's a gamble to win.

Next year they will likely be bad again and add another high pick to the team, on top of using their cap space to acquire more (see the Lin trade rumours for example).

This year you have mcw and essentially a number one pick in Noel. Next year embiid plus whatever they draft and the year after maybe saric plus whatever they pick up.

They have also been stashing second picks and European talent too.
But they will likely be BAD this year again at least maybe longer.

I think this is a way to build a chance to win, not be average and it's pretty amazing how supportive the fans are, so far. But for how long will they? Will the owners start being annoyed about falling attendance? (I say not because the team is cheap and has a plan)

I think how this plays out will be very interesting because if all the talent is as advertised they will be in a good place to add free agent talent too when they are ready

Too pathetic a plan?
Too risky?
Smart?
Abusing a flawed system (good or bad)?

What do you guys think?

 

[Auger34]

They are really the first team where an owner has allowed, maybe even encouraged, the GM to absolutely tear the team down and start over. I personally love it and think it's the best way to team build but it's go to be tough to take and watch as a fan

 

[Toe Nash]

I think it's very interesting and will be fun to follow. Similar to how the 2017 World Series Champion Astros are rebuilding. To me it's very risky though:
 
-It has to work. If the team builds a core and then can't make the moves to go over the top, then all the crappy years will be for naught. 
-Related to that, you may start to develop a reputation among players and other teams of being cheap or not interested in winning, and that could harm you when you actually want to sign free agents or make other deals to win.
-I think there is a huge risk in alienating fans. People assume that fans will come back once the team is good, but I'm not so sure. Maybe the market in Philly is so big that losing for multiple seasons doesn't matter (like the Clippers). You also lose leverage in negotiating future TV deals if no one has been watching for years, I would think (Not sure where the 6ers are in that process), which is a huge source of revenue. 
 
As a fan I would be annoyed if my team did this, especially if they had the revenue to do otherwise. But, I would probably come back when they got good. But not sure how your average fan would feel who didn't understand the "process."

 

[teddykgb]

The upside to this strategy is that there's always some fun in prospect humping.  Fans are going to show up to watch Noel this season and will want to show up to watch Embiid next season.  Their numbers will be down, but I bet they don't bottom out much more than your run of the mill bad team.

 

[Carmine Hose]

I advocate this plan for the Celtics, because they are even less likely (historically and anecdotally) than Philly to land any kind of free agent talent.  Thus, you need to draft and develop or trade for talent.

 

[Marbleheader]

The biggest problem with this strategy is that by the time these guys are in their prime, they are going to be able to walk. They are developing on your dime, and some other team may very well benefit. It's not just the risk that they won't pan out, even if they do, there's substantial risk that you'll lose them to free agency.

 

[Auger34]

The biggest problem with this strategy is that by the time these guys are in their prime, they are going to be able to walk. They are developing on your dime, and some other team will benefit. It's not just the risk that they won't pan out, even if they do, there's substantial risk that you'll lose them to free agency.

Philly is a big market and should have the funds to pay the players as needed. A minor quibble with their plan this year is that they are stocked w/ bigs (Embiid, Noel) and this draft is mostly bigs in the lottery

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I advocate this plan for the Celtics, because they are even less likely (historically and anecdotally) than Philly to land any kind of free agent talent.  Thus, you need to draft and develop or trade for talent.

 
Not to derail this thread, but this is such a common sentiment on this board, that it makes me curious: how many times have the Celtics had cap space, attempted to sign a free agent, and failed? Is the idea that the Celtics can't sign free agents actually true, or is it a symptom of the fact that they've drafted so well over the years that they've never a) had to rely heavily on the free agent market and b) never really had huge amounts of cap space as a contender?

 

[bowiac]

I think it's certainly interesting, given Hinkie is coming from Houston, who explicitly avoided this style of a rebuild. I don't know if it was "the plan" so much as a confluence of events and players falling to them however. For instance, if the Cavs had done the sane thing and drafted Noel last year, I'm not sure the 76ers would have done this same thing.
 
People were super down on last year's draft, but on a number of metrics, combining stats and measurements, Noel projected as a star (for instance here: Noel projected as the best C prospect in recent memory, and the 3rd best overall prospect since the one-and-done rule). My guess is when a chance to get Noel came up, they had to jump at it. Once they had a centerpiece who wasn't going to play for a year, the die was cast, and rest of the "plan" fell into place.

 

[Devizier]

What's interesting about this approach is that it's pretty much only possible due to revenue sharing.

 

[bowiac]

The biggest problem with this strategy is that by the time these guys are in their prime, they are going to be able to walk. They are developing on your dime, and some other team may very well benefit. It's not just the risk that they won't pan out, even if they do, there's substantial risk that you'll lose them to free agency.

You do burn a year of control with guys like Embiid/Noel, but RFA and bird rights are major elements in helping you keep your guys. They're only sure to walk if in a few years, you haven't built anything that looks reasonable. Most decent, up and coming teams, keep their stars.

 

[wutang112878]

I think this is a way to build a chance to win, not be average and it's pretty amazing how supportive the fans are, so far. But for how long will they? Will the owners start being annoyed about falling attendance? (I say not because the team is cheap and has a plan)

I think how this plays out will be very interesting because if all the talent is as advertised they will be in a good place to add free agent talent too when they are ready

Too pathetic a plan?
Too risky?
Smart?
Abusing a flawed system (good or bad)?

What do you guys think?

 
On the fan and ownership support, my take is that typically you get a couple of years to tear it down but you need to be on a clear trajectory back up by year 3.  If you are in year 4 and its more of the same its generally very difficult for ownership to stomach the loses on the court and the loses or less than ideal profit in their pocket and they get impatient and start trying to make changes to either your approach or you.
 
From a strategy standpoint its certainly interesting to go all in on the 'draft' approach.  The 76ers are what I used to think was the ideal situation to build a team, do not have a large salary veteran contract on the books and instead have a roster full of young improving players and the ultimate in cap flexibility.  However, for this to work you need to deal with 3 issues. 
1 - Is the young players developing without any veteran presence to help lead the way.  The # of players in their first 3 years in the league who can be the best offensive player and develop when opposing teammates are focusing on them as the key offensive weapon they need to shutdown, is very, very small.  For example, would MCW have an easier time developing if Iggy was playing alongside of him and taking some of the offensive pressure off of him? 
2 - You have to hit on a very high % of your draft picks.  If they reach their potential a Noel at the 4 and Embiid at the 5 defensive combination could be absolutely amazing.  But there are a lot of ifs, if both stay healthy, if Noel can be effective enough on the offensive side of the ball to remain on the court, if Embiid doesnt foul himself off the court and if both of them arent NBA flops.  With young players there are just always a lot of IFs. 
3 - Eventually attracting your premier FA to the situation.  This is easier said than done, and to be fair in virtually every rebuilding situation this needs to be dealt with, so this isnt really specific to their strategy.
 
At the end of the day, what this really comes down to is hitting on your draft picks at a higher rate than what is expected, or if you have more picks than you are expected to have (like the Celts do :q: ) just hitting on enough and having an organization with enough patience to see this out.  Its just so rare that this happens though

 

[wutang112878]

I think it's certainly interesting, given Hinkie is coming from Houston, who explicitly avoided this style of a rebuild. I don't know if it was "the plan" so much as a confluence of events and players falling to them however. For instance, if the Cavs had done the sane thing and drafted Noel last year, I'm not sure the 76ers would have done this same thing.

 
What do you mean?  Now Morey didnt dip down to the 30 win level, but there was a lot of treading water after Yao and McGrady were off the roster, and he was in 'asset development' mode and eventually pounced on Harden and started their rapid upswing.  It seems like Hinkie is in his 'asset development' mode its just that he decided to tear it down to the ground first.  It seems like just a tweak in style to me.

 

[bowiac]

What's interesting about this approach is that it's pretty much only possible due to revenue sharing.

Why's that?
 
As an aside, the 76ers look really really awful for next year. I keep a spreadsheet of every NBA roster, along with projected stats based on a position-by-position aging curve, and resulting wins, adjusting for strength of schedule. For now, I assume all free agents return to their original teams. Keeping in mind this process "compresses" the results, much like no baseball projection system projects anyone to hit 40 HRs or win 20 games. The worst records in the league end up being the really awful teams that also got unlucky with injuries/whatever else.
 
It's a pretty smooth curve, from the Spurs at a projected margin of victory of +7, and 57 projected wins, to the Bucks at a margin of victory of -5 and 36 wins (being in the East is a big deal - the Nuggets project as a much better team, but only to win 29 games). The 76ers are all all by themselves, at -13 margin of victory, and 20 wins. Basically, the gap between the 76ers and the 2nd worst team is the gap between the Spurs and being a below average team.

 

[teddykgb]

Why's that?
 
As an aside, the 76ers look really really awful for next year. I keep a spreadsheet of every NBA roster, along with projected stats based on a position-by-position aging curve, and resulting wins, adjusting for strength of schedule. For now, I assume all free agents return to their original teams. Keeping in mind this process "compresses" the results, much like no baseball projection system projects anyone to hit 40 HRs or win 20 games. The worst records in the league end up being the really awful teams that also got unlucky with injuries/whatever else.
 
It's a pretty smooth curve, from the Spurs at a projected margin of victory of +7, and 57 projected wins, to the Bucks at a margin of victory of -5 and 36 wins (being in the East is a big deal - the Nuggets project as a much better team, but only to win 29 games). The 76ers are all all by themselves, at -13 margin of victory, and 20 wins. Basically, the gap between the 76ers and the 2nd worst team is the gap between the Spurs and being a below average team.

 
How do you project a guy like Noel into their stats?

 

[bowiac]

What do you mean?  Now Morey didnt dip down to the 30 win level, but there was a lot of treading water after Yao and McGrady were off the roster, and he was in 'asset development' mode and eventually pounced on Harden and started their rapid upswing.  It seems like Hinkie is in his 'asset development' mode its just that he decided to tear it down to the ground first.  It seems like just a tweak in style to me.

Treading water is exactly the 76ers didn't do. The Rockets, playing in the Western Conference, have never gone below .500 under Morey. The Rockets are attempting to rebuild on the fly, putting a competitive product on the court while accumulating assets, but not high draft picks. The 76ers meanwhile are putting an insanely bad product on the court, having one of the worst records in the league while playing in the Eastern conference...
 
The Rockets won 22 straight games under Morey, setting the record for the longest winning streak since the merger. The 76ers tied the record last year for the longest losing streak in NBA history meanwhile. The rebuild styles are very different.

 

[bowiac]

How do you project a guy like Noel into their stats?

He's not in there - I haven't added rookies yet. I'm basically going to use Pelton's WARP projections translated to a points/100 possessions basis. But yes, you're right, this will substantially improve their projection.

 

[Auger34]

Not to derail this thread, but this is such a common sentiment on this board, that it makes me curious: how many times have the Celtics had cap space, attempted to sign a free agent, and failed? Is the idea that the Celtics can't sign free agents actually true, or is it a symptom of the fact that they've drafted so well over the years that they've never a) had to rely heavily on the free agent market and b) never really had huge amounts of cap space as a contender?

I think it's the idea that the Celtics can't sign a true "alpha dog" FA not that they can't sign good FA's

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I think it's the idea that the Celtics can't sign a true "alpha dog" FA not that they can't sign good FA's

 
When have they tried?

 

[Carmine Hose]

I think the Celts haven't tried because they know it's pointless.  They know the word around the league about the city and it's attractiveness to players.  They will come to Boston really only when they already have pieces in place (e.g., Garnett OK'ing an extension on the trade).  If they had a max cap slot next year, and the current roster alone, does Kevin Love sign here as a direct free agent?  Doubtful.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I think the Celts haven't tried because they know it's pointless.  They know the word around the league about the city and it's attractiveness to players.  They will come to Boston really only when they already have pieces in place (e.g., Garnett OK'ing an extension on the trade).  If they had a max cap slot next year, and the current roster alone, does Kevin Love sign here as a direct free agent?  Doubtful.

 
Kevin Love is a single example, and the Celtics current talent isn't ideal. The Celtics are one of the league's premier franchises, with a fantastic history of success, huge fan support, and a large market. Put the right players in place and the the Celtics are as attractive as 95% of the league. They'll never be the Lakers or Knicks in that respect, but they can comfortably sit in that second tier.

 

[LondonSox]

It's worth remembering that the Sixers have been at the salary floor, which significantly helps when looking at current profits.
What I mean is they probably COULD do this even without revenue sharing. 
 
The financial question is also unclear to me, the value of the team is clearly vastly different as a contender with a young team with a good window. Yeah you might lose a some for a few years, but if you do it right the overall upside is a lot bigger (because this strategy is cheap near term).
Of course if you blow it. Ugh yeah bad times.
 
I think the real question on buy in for the whole thing is using the salary cap as a weapon. Are you willing to take on a contract you don't need to get a pick. Ie will you pay Lin to get a young player or draft pick. The signs are they will, eg taking Granger last year and immediately buying him out, rather than use him as that veteran presence mentioned.
 
Generally I'm not sure about the value of veterans for the sake of veterans, aren't coaches for this and cheaper? IF you're doing this paying for mediocrity is exactly pointless, even on an individual basis. Play some long shots and see if you hit the jackpot.
The danger is that young players are hurt by being asked to do things outside their ability/ role and then later when they don't need to the habits have become ingrained.
What I mean by this, is MCW shooting first for years then being asked to pass more, and being too ingrained in those bad habits. Again though this is on coaching too. 

 

[wutang112878]

Treading water is exactly the 76ers didn't do. The Rockets, playing in the Western Conference, have never gone below .500 under Morey. The Rockets are attempting to rebuild on the fly, putting a competitive product on the court while accumulating assets, but not high draft picks. The 76ers meanwhile are putting an insanely bad product on the court, having one of the worst records in the league while playing in the Eastern conference...
 
The Rockets won 22 straight games under Morey, setting the record for the longest winning streak since the merger. The 76ers tied the record last year for the longest losing streak in NBA history meanwhile. The rebuild styles are very different.

 
I guess what I am not seeing is how much did Hinkie really tear down?  He traded Holiday but that got him Noel and another 1st, I feel like Morey wouldnt have passed that up.  And he moved Turner who wasnt exactly a great asset and wasnt a difference maker.  What he didnt do was go spend like crazy in free agency, Hinkie has only had 1 full offseason, so maybe he couldnt go find value like he liked?  Now if he goes into next year and adds nothing in free agency, well now he just wants to linger at the bottom of the league.  I guess I just feel like before we say Hinkie's strategy is to just draft himself out of awfulness, we need to at least give him this free agency period before we come to that determination.  Because I just wonder if Hinkie doesnt feel he has Morey's strength in finding free agency so he doesnt want to dive into that pool.
 
Is there something you think Hinkie could have done last year to really take Philly from the 20 wins to like 35?  I think that would have been very hard to do without spending like crazy in free agency.

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
I guess what I am not seeing is how much did Hinkie really tear down?  He traded Holiday but that got him Noel and another 1st, I feel like Morey wouldnt have passed that up.  And he moved Turner who wasnt exactly a great asset and wasnt a difference maker.  What he didnt do was go spend like crazy in free agency, Hinkie has only had 1 full offseason, so maybe he couldnt go find value like he liked?  Now if he goes into next year and adds nothing in free agency, well now he just wants to linger at the bottom of the league.  I guess I just feel like before we say Hinkie's strategy is to just draft himself out of awfulness, we need to at least give him this free agency period before we come to that determination.  Because I just wonder if Hinkie doesnt feel he has Morey's strength in finding free agency so he doesnt want to dive into that pool.
 
Is there something you think Hinkie could have done last year to really take Philly from the 20 wins to like 35?  I think that would have been very hard to do without spending like crazy in free agency.

Yeah that team was brutally bad when he got it.
Basically he let 3 of their top 7 scorers walk for nothing (none of them good players): Jason Richardson, Nick Young, Dorrell Wright, traded a 4th in Holliday and basically didn't spend a dime in FA ending up under the floor. So a few FA signings could have helped, but that team was going to be terrible either way last year.

 

[bowiac]

Is there something you think Hinkie could have done last year to really take Philly from the 20 wins to like 35?  I think that would have been very hard to do without spending like crazy in free agency.

Ignoring the Jrue deal, he traded Turner and Hawes. They didn't acquire any pieces in free agency. They didn't trade for any pieces.
 
Morey has consistently signed and acquired good, but not great players like Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, Kevin Martin, Trevor Ariza, Omri Casspi, Ron Artest, Courtney Lee, Francisco Garcia, etc... These guys aren't going to be centerpieces of future championship teams, but they were acquired as valuable players, who among other things, kept the Rockets from every bottoming out. The Rockets had three full seasons between when it was clear Yao's career was approaching an end, and when James Harden fell into their laps. They didn't bottom out, or trade away players to tank for Anthony Davis during that time. They hung around the .500 or better, trying to make the playoffs, while rebuilding at the same time.
 
The 76ers traded away anything worth anything, and have spent 3 lottery picks in the last 2 years on players who will not play in the NBA. Rather than try and build a 34 win team into a bottom end playoff contender again, Hinkie blew the whole thing up. Now I think that was probably "correct", but its a radically different style than what Morey has done.

 

[Devizier]

Why's that?

 
Because terrible teams -- especially those that have two or three years run of awfulness -- would have a hard time keeping up revenues with the gate. The Sixers were 29th in attendance last year -- rightly, because they were awful. They will probably be no better than 20th this year, unless Noel has an enormous first-year impact.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
At the end of the day, what this really comes down to is hitting on your draft picks at a higher rate than what is expected, or if you have more picks than you are expected to have (like the Celts do :q: ) just hitting on enough and having an organization with enough patience to see this out.  Its just so rare that this happens though

 
In addition to hitting on your draft picks, since all of your rookies are going to be coming off rookie wage scale contracts in the same window, you're going to have to figure out which of them are worth max (or near max) contracts and which are not, and in all likelihood, you're going to have to do that before your team has a lot of success.  For example - in 2017, they are going to have to deal with MCW and Noel when they get off their rookie contracts with Embiid and any sleeper from this draft (KJ McDaniels?) and whomever they take in this draft looming in the next two years,  They aren't going to be able to sign everyone.
 
I am very interested in seeing how they do.

 

[seageral]

http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2014/07/23/76ers-joel-embiid-rihanna-twitter

 

[Remagellan]

I was disappointed the Sixers didn't get Wiggins, but this dude is going to be a blast to have on the team.  

 

[Three10toLeft]

Embiid's twitter feed is pretty funny in general. This just added to it.

 

[Remagellan]

Philly Daily News claims it has a source that the Thad Young for Anthony Bennett deal is back on:
 
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20140808_Source__Sixers_in_Cavs-Wolves_trade.html
 
 
The Timberwolves, it has been reported, could use the first-round pick they get from the Cavaliers to help entice the Sixers to part with the 26-year-old Young, but that has not been confirmed.
 
If the Sixers get a first round pick back in addition to Bennett, I will be ecstatic.  Young has grown impatient with the long-term rebuilding course the organization has put in place so he is not long for the team.  If they were to get Bennett and a 1 back, the only way I'd be happier would be if they swapped Young straight up for Wiggins.  
 
As long as we don't send a pick back to Minnesota in the deal, it would be a great trade for the Sixers.  

 

[LondonSox]

I was just posting on this in the love thread, I am thinking that trade would be a slam dunk for Philly.
But I'm lost as to why the first is needed but it's the Timberwolves and hinkie so...

How many heads explode about the sixers getting the top pick from last year and a first for one year of young. Oh and dropping payroll!

 

[Remagellan]

Seriously!   But if people are smart, they'll see it's all part of the plan.  Bennett is five years younger than Young, and that's the key--he can grow along with the rest of the roster.  If the NBA doesn't screw them on next year's draft, they can be a very good team in three or four years.  If nothing else, watching MCW, Noel, and Bennett this season will be interesting  in a way that watching the first two and Young wouldn't be, since every Sixers fan knew Young wasn't going to be part of the team's future.  

 

[moly99]

Bennett should be a good fit next to Embiid and Noel. The latter more than cover for Bennett's defensive deficiencies, which should allow him to develop into a scorer. If he can't succeed next to those two, then he wasn't going to succeed anywhere.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Bennett should be a good fit next to Embiid and Noel. The latter more than cover for Bennett's defensive deficiencies, which should allow him to develop into a scorer. If he can't succeed next to those two, then he wasn't going to succeed anywhere.

His best bet, as well as any young players best bet, is to be on a team with veterans that they can learn the game from both on the court and in off the court preparation. All of these guys are being set up to fail by the Sixers with the blind leading the blind. The best thing that ever happened to Perkins and Rondo was KG and the role playing veterans that followed during that era.

 

[moly99]

How do you explain the Thunder, then?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

How do you explain the Thunder, then?

With every rule there a certain pct of exceptions. I'd consider generational HOFers like Durant to be one of those guys. If Embiid steps in to become a Top-3 player in the league within a couple years he could also be that leader who propels others to that level....the odds of this are certainly against this happening though.

 

[moly99]

In my eyes the biggest factors for the young guys who make it has been their practicing and gym work. The young guys on the Thunder reached their full potential because they worked really hard. Meanwhile the Cavs players have not put in the required gym and practice work according to other players like Luol Deng, and in many cases were obviously poorly conditioned.
 
I have no idea if the Sixers guys will become stars, but I don't think the lack of veterans really matters for their individual skill development. I am more worried about the on-court learning experience for them. (IE when to pass, when to shoot, working within a system, etc.) Guys like Michael Carter Williams can easily develop bad habits if they are forced to carry the scoring load early in their careers.

 

[Brickowski]

Getting Embiid with the #3 pick was a huge stroke of luck that may cloud the analysis of whether or not their other moves were sound.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

His best bet, as well as any young players best bet, is to be on a team with veterans that they can learn the game from both on the court and in off the court preparation. All of these guys are being set up to fail by the Sixers with the blind leading the blind. The best thing that ever happened to Perkins and Rondo was KG and the role playing veterans that followed during that era.

Do you have any studies or statistical proof behind this argument? This sounds like one of those old school arguments (ex: "protection matters to hitters") that may or may not stand up to rigorous analysis. My natural inclination is to say that it wouldn't, but if there's evidence to suggest there's a real effect, I'd happily be convinced otherwise.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Philly Daily News claims it has a source that the Thad Young for Anthony Bennett deal is back on:
 
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20140808_Source__Sixers_in_Cavs-Wolves_trade.html
 
 
The Timberwolves, it has been reported, could use the first-round pick they get from the Cavaliers to help entice the Sixers to part with the 26-year-old Young, but that has not been confirmed.
 
If the Sixers get a first round pick back in addition to Bennett, I will be ecstatic.  Young has grown impatient with the long-term rebuilding course the organization has put in place so he is not long for the team.  If they were to get Bennett and a 1 back, the only way I'd be happier would be if they swapped Young straight up for Wiggins.  
 
As long as we don't send a pick back to Minnesota in the deal, it would be a great trade for the Sixers.

wonder if Danny has offered Green or even Bass in exchange for Bennett w/o the first round draft pick

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Do you have any studies or statistical proof behind this argument? This sounds like one of those old school arguments (ex: "protection matters to hitters") that may or may not stand up to rigorous analysis. My natural inclination is to say that it wouldn't, but if there's evidence to suggest there's a real effect, I'd happily be convinced otherwise.

No nothing statistical just personal experience and observing others comments. When someone like Vazquez tells you how much he learned from David Ross do you take him for his word or ask him for statistical analysis?

 

[Scoops Bolling]

No nothing statistical just personal experience and observing others comments. When someone like Vazquez tells you how much he learned from David Ross do you take him for his word or ask him for statistical analysis?

I would say that Vazquez already had the exact skill set he's showing in the MLB in the minors, as evidenced by both scouting reports and in his statistics...so I'm not sure Ross has had any tangible effect. I would further say that isolated anecdotes are not evidence that a phenomena actually exists in the general population. I mean, you say Perk and Rondo are a product of KG; who was KG a product of then? I see no reason to take the theory that young players need to be surrounded by veterans in order to succeed without strong evidence that those veterans are in fact the crucial factor, especially when on its face there is ample evidence against that theory.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I would say that Vazquez already had the exact skill set he's showing in the MLB in the minors, as evidenced by both scouting reports and in his statistics...so I'm not sure Ross has had any tangible effect. I would further say that isolated anecdotes are not evidence that a phenomena actually exists in the general population. I mean, you say Perk and Rondo are a product of KG; who was KG a product of then? I see no reason to take the theory that young players need to be surrounded by veterans in order to succeed without strong evidence that those veterans are in fact the crucial factor, especially when on its face there is ample evidence against that theory.

Vazquez would disagree with you when he says Ross "Helps me in everything" and how Vazquez watches Ross go over the scouting report prior to executing it in the game as they reverse roles the next day. Of course he can't provide you empirical evidence so it must not exist so his skills must be the same.....even though Vazquez states how much they've improved due to Ross.

It's the same in basketball.....it's the same in the workplace. You learn from those smarter and more experienced than yourself. I'm glad I've experienced it myself in basketball, in my job and in life by an older mentor. It's not that difficult to comprehend......I'll bet at some point in life you learned from someone smarter also.

 

[LondonSox]

So the sixers are unable to sign veterans for that leadership role if they so choose because?
 
There is nothing to stop the Sixers doing this if it is an issue. Personally I think the coaches should be setting the work/ training etc regime not the veteran players.
So in fact I totally disagree with you on the whole topic.
 
The average veteran NBA player isn't KG.
 
Re the Embiid pick. Sound analysis, they got lucky that an injured player fell to them? They wanted Wiggins and if not for the lottery would almost certainly have got him, and even then if not for the Embiid injury again would have got him.
The Noel pick and trade looks like a far better move. The whole point of teams tanking for the 2014 draft was that it was the best draft in years, the fact they got an extremely talented player was the whole freakin point of their tactics. Saying they got lucky as they got a good player in one of the best drafts in decades is a kind of missing the point imo.  

 

[Brickowski]

I view Embiid, even injured, as clearly the best player in this draft.  The Sixers were lucky that Cleveland or Milwaukee didn't take him.  Had LeBron stayed in Miami, Cleveland might have.
 
And if the Sixers were planning to draft Wiggins with the #1 pick, they were fortunate to be picking 3rd instead.

 

[LondonSox]

They had the second worst record and picked third, how are they fortunate? I assume you mean because they didn't have a choice of taking Wiggins but it's way early to declare what Wiggins is.

And embiid dropped for a reason. If he works out he's maybe the best talent in the draft, but there is a non zero chance of being a total disaster due to injury.

I would have, personally, taken embiid over Parker. But it seems like the Bucks would have taken Parker over Wiggins.

 

[moly99]

Vazquez would disagree with you when he says Ross "Helps me in everything" and how Vazquez watches Ross go over the scouting report prior to executing it in the game as they reverse roles the next day. Of course he can't provide you empirical evidence so it must not exist so his skills must be the same.....even though Vazquez states how much they've improved due to Ross.

 
Well, teammates are typically going to say nice things about each other. The point is that going over a scouting report is something coaches (should) do with players anyway. The idea that young players wouldn't have access to that information without veterans teammates does not seem accurate.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Well, teammates are typically going to say nice things about each other. The point is that going over a scouting report is something coaches (should) do with players anyway. The idea that young players wouldn't have access to that information without veterans teammates does not seem accurate.

It's much more than that I was only quoting his words. Every job I've ever had the improvements I've made were at least in some part due to observing what my more experienced and successful co-workers were doing to be successful and implementing their tactics......same with every sport I played. Anyone who doesn't take advantage of these opportunities to improve is missing the boat. Pointing out the generational exceptions like Durant and KG doesn't do much as they also would have picked up things earlier on but were skilled enough to figure it out on their own.

 

[moly99]

It's much more than that I was only quoting his words. Every job I've ever had the improvements I've made were at least in some part due to observing what my more experienced and successful co-workers were doing to be successful and implementing their tactics......same with every sport I played. Anyone who doesn't take advantage of these opportunities to improve is missing the boat. Pointing out the generational exceptions like Durant and KG doesn't do much as they also would have picked up things earlier on but were skilled enough to figure it out on their own.

 
Pro sports are very different from other jobs, though, because there is video of rivals doing their work freely available for other people to watch. James Harden could learn the euro step despite not having a mentor for it on his own roster because he could watch other players around the league do it.
 
Additionally trainers and coaches do the vast majority of drills and skills training in the NBA rather than the veteran players, who are mostly trying to get out of practice.
 
I'm not saying there is no benefit to having someone like KG on a team to teach the young guys on a team what it takes to make it in the NBA. But I think the benefit is mostly in the form of showing young guys how hard they have to work if they are going to stick in the NBA as opposed to helping them work on their actual skills.