<Crickets> says it all. He got thick in the waist and slow(er) last year. He even kind of lost it as a hitter. He'll only be 31 next April though. But, we're not a bottom salary team and can afford better than him.snowmanny said:Lowrie?
MartyBarrettMVP said:Yanks starting to talk to Headley...
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/11/3/7150135/yankees-start-talks-with-chase-headley
A lot of Lowrie's bad year can be attributed to a terrible season against lefthanders (590 OPS vs 775 career), and that in turn at least partly reflects a 264 BABip vs. a career .291 and .312 vs. lefties.Al Zarilla said:<Crickets> says it all. He got thick in the waist and slow(er) last year. He even kind of lost it as a hitter. He'll only be 31 next April though. But, we're not a bottom salary team and can afford better than him.
Rudy Pemberton said:If Headley and Sandoval return to their respective teams, which seems likely, that pretty much kills the FA 3B market (unless Hanley is willing to play there, or the Sox are willing to move Bogaerts back to third).
Steamer projects a 104 wRC+ from Lowrie next season. Combine that with decent defense at 3B and you would have a roughly 2.5 win player. He should be in fairly high demand as a 2B option, but if they can sign him for something reasonable he looks like a decent option to start for us.Plympton91 said:A lot of Lowrie's bad year can be attributed to a terrible season against lefthanders (590 OPS vs 775 career), and that in turn at least partly reflects a 264 BABip vs. a career .291 and .312 vs. lefties.
If the bidding in years or dollars gets too high for Pablo/Headley, bringing back Lowrie at half the years and a little more than half the dollars may not be a terrible choice. A return to career norms against lefties for Lowrie also makes him a nice, albeit expensive, platoon with Cecchini, who has at times struggled against lefties in the minors, if Garin continues to hit like he did last August and September.
67WasBest said:With their budget and the need for two top pitchers, I never really saw Headley or Sandoval as options, although I would have loved either.
Luis Valbuena is losing his 3B job for the Cubs to Bryant. He can play 2B, in addition to 3B, but is not an ideal utility guy/ Do a deal with Theo and move on to other needs.
Good reply, but I've come to enjoy your posts so not surprising.Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm still not convinced that Valbuena is a big enough upgrade over Holt to be worth giving up value for. He had an out-of-context offensive year fueled by an unusually high (for him) BABIP and a bit of a late-20s ISO boost. The latter may be legit. But his profile does not sound like a guy whose game will flourish in Fenway. He's basically Stephen Drew Lite.
Headley has explicitly said he wants to be a team's full-time 3B, not a time share and I'd be willing to bet definitely not playing in the OF.foulkehampshire said:
They'd be insane to go into 2015 with ARod as their regular 3B. Headley could also play a passable RF in the toilet, I assume, which gives them added versatility.
Headley should be their #1 (position player) target, and the bidding war is not going to be worth it for the Sox, I think.
Why is this an insane idea? If I had to guess as to who would have a better year next year between Arod and Headley I'm not sure there is a resounding reason to pick Headleyfoulkehampshire said:
They'd be insane to go into 2015 with ARod as their regular 3B.
I'm saying the cumulative production of Ortiz/Napoli/Pedroia is likely to decline. I agree that one of the three might beat those odds.Plympton91 said:Well, if Lowrie is league average both offensively and defensively that's a big improvement. Likewise, anything approaching league average offense from CF is a huge improvement over the historically terrible performance of JBJ, though you'll give some back on D there probably.
I don't see decline from Pedroia and Napoli as a given, because they played so few games and what the did play they did so at well below 100%.
I see gains at all infield positions, even with Valbuena as lowest ranked option. A full offseason of healing and conditioning for both Pedroia and Napoli should provide a better season. A year older for X portends something better, and any breathing LH 3B is better than what we had at 3B last year. I also see gains at all 3 OF positions. DH looks to be a place for a fall, while catcher could go either way. I don't see the need for an uber 3B is as acute as you've defined it.maufman said:No matter how much money the Sox spend on pitching this winter, they aren't going to contend in 2015 if they simply patch the hole at 3B and otherwise stick with the same offense that finished second-to-last in the AL in OPS+ last season. (I realize that a full season of Castillo, Cespedes and Betts will help, as will organic improvement from X, but there's also decline to be expected from the veteran core of Ortiz/Napoli/Pedroia.)
I'm not in love with Headley or Sandoval, but barring a trade for Donaldson (who might not be available), signing one of those two seems like the easiest way to upgrade the offense. What do those who think we should sign a cheaper stopgap like Lowrie think we should do to improve the offense?
swingin val said:Why is this an insane idea? If I had to guess as to who would have a better year next year between Arod and Headley I'm not sure there is a resounding reason to pick Headley
KillerBs said:Re Headley, I see FWIW, that MLBTR predicts him to the BoSox and says he "seems to be in a good position for a 4 year deal," ie taking him thru his age 34 year. I cant see the Sox going to 4 years for Chase Headley, tho 4/40, even 4/44, makes more sense than the good old 3/39 that seems more likely to be up the Sox alley.
Drek717 said:Headley has explicitly said he wants to be a team's full-time 3B, not a time share and I'd be willing to bet definitely not playing in the OF.
The Yankees will likely need to throw a big chunk of money his way to talk him out of that stance, as with ARod, Prado, etc. they have no real ability to guarantee a consistent 3B job for him.
So let me get this straight: you think Mike Napoli will equal his best career season at age 33, that Pedroia will improve at age 31-32, and that none of the three starters entering their first full big-league season will fail to meet expectations. Oh, and that there won't be a serious injury somewhere in the mix.67WasBest said:I see gains at all infield positions, even with Valbuena as lowest ranked option. A full offseason of healing and conditioning for both Pedroia and Napoli should provide a better season. A year older for X portends something better, and any breathing LH 3B is better than what we had at 3B last year. I also see gains at all 3 OF positions. DH looks to be a place for a fall, while catcher could go either way. I don't see the need for an uber 3B is as acute as you've defined it.
In response to both you and Mauf, I was one of the ones screaming the loudest about the lack of depth on the offense, and particularly in CF last year. But the amount of depth they have this year, combined with the absurdly low bar for improvement out of C, 3B, and CF, leaves me quite confident that the offense can fix itself with just a league average addition at 3B (which may in fact be Cecchini, if worst comes to worst).Rudy Pemberton said:As far as how the Sox will do this year; if they land two pitchers the caliber of Lester & Lackey, they are back to where they started last year. If everything goes right, sure, they could win it all again. Or they could be in last place.
I guess it depends on what prism you choose to look through.maufman said:So let me get this straight: you think Mike Napoli will equal his best career season at age 33, that Pedroia will improve at age 31-32, and that none of the three starters entering their first full big-league season will fail to meet expectations. Oh, and that there won't be a serious injury somewhere in the mix.
One or two of those things might happen. Planning for them all to happen is crazy. And I'm not picking on you, because it seems to be conventional wisdom around here that the Sox should break the bank on two good-to-great free-agent SPs and hope that the offense magically fixes itself.
I'm bringing this up in the 3B thread because that seems like the easiest position to upgrade without seriously altering the club's long-term core. I would love to see them making a bold offer for Donaldson, but if that doesn't work (or if the price is ridiculous), overpaying for Headley or Panda is a very solid fallback option that would make next year's team a few wins better.
The entire outfield, C, and 3B were all incredibly bad last year. Very, very far below even average production. If Castillo, Cespedes, and Betts can combine for a 100 wRC+ (an absurdly low bar) it would be a huge improvement for the Red Sox offense.maufman said:No matter how much money the Sox spend on pitching this winter, they aren't going to contend in 2015 if they simply patch the hole at 3B and otherwise stick with the same offense that finished second-to-last in the AL in OPS+ last season. (I realize that a full season of Castillo, Cespedes and Betts will help, as will organic improvement from X, but there's also decline to be expected from the veteran core of Ortiz/Napoli/Pedroia.)
I'm not in love with Headley or Sandoval, but barring a trade for Donaldson (who might not be available), signing one of those two seems like the easiest way to upgrade the offense. What do those who think we should sign a cheaper stopgap like Lowrie think we should do to improve the offense?
maufman said:People who think Nap had a "down year" in 2014 need to check his career stats. His numbers weren't wildly off his 2013 numbers (either in GP or production), and 2013 was his best season. I realize that Sciosia stupidly kept him on the shelf in his Angels' days, and perhaps he could have put together another season or two like that back in the day, but expecting that at age 33, with his injury history, is much too optimistic.
rodderick said:
He slugged .070 less in 2014, that's a pretty steep decline in production. It was the lowest SLG mark of his career by a good margin. Oh, and 2011 was by far his best season, not 2013.
rodderick said:
He slugged .070 less in 2014, that's a pretty steep decline in production. It was the lowest SLG mark of his career by a good margin. Oh, and 2011 was by far his best season, not 2013.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:I wonder whether the Yankees opening contract talks in fact does mean that they are prepared to give him 120 plus games at 3B and move A-Rod to DH, or at least to make noises that they are going to do it to him. Prado may not be delighted about it, but if anyone has the luxury to pay a utility guy starters money, it's the Yankees.
They have Refsnyder putting up some pretty numbers* in the minors. He has only relatively recently taken up the position, and I doubt they go with him out of the gate, but barring his development stalling or taking a step back he is in the mix for 2015 in the bigs at some stagenattysez said:
The MFY don't have anyone to play 2b, do they? Prado can play there and Drew (or whoever) can play SS? That leaves 3b for Headley.
Fireball Fred said:I wonder whether Cespedes plus would be enough to get Cleveland to part with Salazar. He's not the top-of-the-rotation guy(s) the Sox need, but he is the young high-K stud they should also look to add - especially if they sign Shields. Cleveland, who should be going for it, and Philly, rebuilding, seem to be the polar opposite trade partners who could help the Sox rebalance their assets.
KillerBs said:Has anyone other than the Yanks, Bosox and the Cubs been tied to Scherzer or Lester? The little I read about the Dodgers and Angels suggests that they are not looking to add more big contracts. The Rangers, Mariners, Tigers and Nats seem highly unlikely. Where else might these 2 go? The Os? If the Yanks are truly out, doesn't that fundamentally change the market for these 2? It would seem to flip it from a situation where you want to move quick to ensure you get 1 of them to a one where you would be better off being the primary serious suitor for the one who is left.
A better question is whether Howie could slide to third.RochesterSamHorn said:
Cleveland looks to be all set in the outfield with Brantley, Bourn, and Murphy, with their priorities being starting pitching and bullpen help.
It was mentioned today on MLB Hotstove that the Angels are looking to trade either Kendrick or Freese to free up some salary to address SP... which begs the question, is Freese an option for the Sox, with our excess of pitching prospects? I don't believe he's been discussed.
I too wondered Howie would do over there.CaskNFappin said:A better question is whether Howie could slide to third.
Fireball Fred said:The more recent comments are right, I think, about Napoli and Pedey - both could be past their hand woes, and in any case the issue is not so much percentages as counting stats, as both missed a lot of games in '14. I'd be very surprised to see Ortiz repeat last season, but the other two could well contribute more, and I'd bet heavily on Bogaerts improving, along with the outfield no matter who plays. At third ... Sandoval will entail putting a lot of money at risk, same with Hanley, and the Yankees won't lose a player they want to the Sox (never have), so we're probably looking for fairly marginal improvement.
JimD said:
Well, other than that Schilling guy ten years ago ...
JimD said:
Well, other than that Schilling guy ten years ago ...
The Flying Dutchman said:I too wondered Howie would do over there.
GaryPeters71 said:
Most likely to be manning 3B for BOS in 2015 - Sandoval, Headley, Lowrie, Holt, Cecchini, Hanley Ramirez, Bogaerts, or Middlebrooks?
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 3m3 minutes ago
No surprise: Sandoval has rejected qualifying offer from #SFGiants.
There's a fairly strong possibility that the Yankees will indeed offer him the starting 3rd base job, it's been discussed all over the board.ALiveH said:Are the yankees going to offer Headley the chance to play 3B every day? All things being equal, he might take equal or slightly less money if Boston promises he's the starting 3B.
On Sandoval, I don't care about the draft pick as much this year, given our protected pick & the plan to spend money. For example, if we sign 1-2 other QO'd players, then Sandoval might only end up costing an incremental 3rd or 4th round pick. Like others, I am concerned about the weight issues. I'd hope the Sox insist on a weight clause, but my guess is someone else will be willing to give him plenty of years & dollars with no weight clause.
TomRicardo said:
Or Daisuke Matzusaka or Rusney Castillo.
The Yankees don't win every bidding war.