The future at 3rd

[EricFeczko]

 
Those numbers need a bit of filtering, because offense has been declining MLB-wide. But even if you look at wRC+, he's been declining steadily over that period, though more slowly (after the first year) than the raw numbers imply: 149, 118, 116, 111.
 
So, yes: the record suggests he's already declining. The question is, can he be expected to temporarily turn that curve around, or will it continue (or accelerate)?

Actually, we should look at his numbers over his career: 118,146,96,149,118,116,111
To me, those numbers don't reflect a decline but rather that Panda's performance four years ago was unsustainably high. Pablo dropped 30 points of wRC+ because his ISO dropped 60 points; much of this drop is because Pablo had a 16.7% HR/FB rate in 2011, similar to the 2009 season where he had a 14.0% HR/FB rate.
 
Steamer is projecting him at 120 wRC+, but that projection infers that Panda has underperformed in 5 of his 7 seasons. I don't buy it, I think he's an above-average hitting/slightly below average fielding third baseman, who's hitting profile is more similar to Billy Butler than David Wright.

 

[TigerBlood]

Just wanted to put a thought out there that I had. I know a page or so back when Donaldson trade discussion was hot, it was mentioned that prospect Josh Donaldson was a catcher whose defensive struggles were carrying over to the plate. He switched over to third, where he is now comfortably an offensive and defensive standout.
 
How unprecedented is that? Is there any chance the Sox go this route with Swihart (not for this season)? He is not heralded as a defensive whiz behind the plate, and is quite blocked at C by another young dude in Vazquez who the Sox seem pretty stoked about. I could see this situation playing out if BC fails to sign a long-term option this winter, and the in house options fail to impress again. I'm sure Swihart would be given time to learn it in AAA while Cecchini took over this year, but maybe in 2016? Just something I thought of while in the catcher thread.

 

[Cumberland Blues]

I don't think C to 3B is all that uncommon - Panda was a C in the minors too.  So I would agree that 3B is a possible landing spot if he doesn't stick at C, but I thought the defensive reports on Swihart were pretty good.  Much like X at SS, I think Swihart's a catcher until he absolutely proves he's not. 

 

[Just a bit outside]

I don't think C to 3B is all that uncommon - Panda was a C in the minors too.  So I would agree that 3B is a possible landing spot if he doesn't stick at C, but I thought the defensive reports on Swihart were pretty good.  Much like X at SS, I think Swihart's a catcher until he absolutely proves he's not. 

All reports are that Swihart is an above average defensive catcher. He won't move to third unless Vasquez is amazing this season and they want to get Swihart's bat I. The lineup.

 

[Rasputin]

All reports are that Swihart is an above average defensive catcher. He won't move to third unless Vasquez is amazing this season and they want to get Swihart's bat I. The lineup.

 
Or, you know, they want to extend the careers of both Swihart and Vazquez by having Swihart play another position a few times a week.

 

[Just a bit outside]

 
Or, you know, they want to extend the careers of both Swihart and Vazquez by having Swihart play another position a few times a week.

He was indicating that Swihart would be a full time third baseman. Swihart playing a couple times a week is not the same thing.

 

[Rasputin]

He was indicating that Swihart would be a full time third baseman. Swihart playing a couple times a week is not the same thing.

 
You don't say. 

 

[chawson]

There's 6/$110 for Sandoval, or there's tossing the new GM in Colorado a bunch of our young SP prospects and assuming Tulo's 6/$118.

Offer Owens/Rodriguez/Margot plus we take Boone Logan and his 2/$11. Slide Bogaerts over.

 

[chawson]

Are you saying that package is too much or are you just being a snarkpuss?

Jk. Lotta factors involved, for sure. But Tulo's a 6-7 win player and Sandoval's maybe half that, so that's the primary reason. One has health issues; the other weight.

If Headley wants to be in NY and SF keeps Sandoval, this becomes a thought.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Are you saying that package is too much or are you just being a snarkpuss?

Jk. Lotta factors involved, for sure. But Tulo's a 6-7 win player and Sandoval's maybe half that, so that's the primary reason. One has health issues; the other weight.

If Headley wants to be in NY and SF keeps Sandoval, this becomes a thought.

 
If he can stay on the field. 

 

[jimbobim]

Are you saying that package is too much or are you just being a snarkpuss?

Jk. Lotta factors involved, for sure. But Tulo's a 6-7 win player and Sandoval's maybe half that, so that's the primary reason. One has health issues; the other weight.

If Headley wants to be in NY and SF keeps Sandoval, this becomes a thought.

 
I'm not against pursuing Tulo if Pablo stays or becomes too pricey. However, as you mention Tulo's value is very hard to quantify when it comes to prospects willing to deal for the coors/injury risk and the hundred million. I think getting Tulo out of Colorado would be ideal for all involved and Colorado could rebuild to some extent. 
 
If the Red Sox dealt Owens Rod and Margot for Tulo the Rockies would have to eat money. The Rockies also may get better position prospect offers and I consider Mookie  anything short of Stanton untouchable.     

 

[williams_482]

 
If he can stay on the field. 

Even with the injuries, he has still averaged 4.3 WAR per season since he was made the starting shortstop in 2007, and his contract does offer considerable surplus value even if we do project so many injuries he loses a third of his projected production. 
 
The price Colorado would want for him is probably prohibitive, but they are rebuilding and we do have a lot of minor leaguers who could be dealt. A Tulowitzki trade is hardly implausible. 

 

[ehaz]

Personally, if I had to pick between elite shortstops with injury problems, I'd just sign Hanley at 6/118 and keep the prospects.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'd also quibble with Owens, Rodriguez and Margot being enough. The way I read the Rockies telling teams they want fair value for the healthy production of either player is that they want young, major league ready talent. That probably means a package is starting with either Betts or Bogaerts and that means I'm staying away. I like Tulo, but he just can't stay healthy and I'm not risking one of the two potential star players the Red Sox have at the very beginning of their careers for him. This latest injury is scary, as PP was right to point out above.

 

[moondog80]

I'd also quibble with Owens, Rodriguez and Margot being enough. The way I read the Rockies telling teams they want fair value for the healthy production of either player is that they want young, major league ready talent.

Good luck to them if they want a full prospect package for Ras-I-Tulowitzki. I'm not sure I'd take his contract on period, with nothing in return.

 

[Drek717]

In what world are they rebuilding when they just gave Cuddyer a QO?

Given the season Cuddyer just had at the plate they're probably betting some team will offer multiple years and that Cuddyer, given his age, will likely take it.

 

[Cumberland Blues]

Cuddyer's 35 and only played in 49 games - that's not a guy who should be banking on a multiyear deal, no matter how good he was in those 49 games.  I can't imagine he doesn't accept the QO - who is giving up a 1st round pick for 35yr old off an injury riddled season?

 

[moondog80]

Cuddyer's 35 and only played in 49 games - that's not a guy who should be banking on a multiyear deal, no matter how good he was in those 49 games.  I can't imagine he doesn't accept the QO - who is giving up a 1st round pick for 35yr old off an injury riddled season?

 
 
Yep, no way he turns it down after seeing Cruz, Morales, and Drew all lose money last year.

 

[williams_482]

In what world are they rebuilding when they just gave Cuddyer a QO?

I am guessing that giving Cuddyer the QO was an (ill advised) gamble aimed at gaining a draft pick when he leaves. 
 
That said, the Rockies have more talent on their team than I had believed when I made that comment. It is quite possible they could be fringe contenders next year.

 

[seantoo]

While the overall point that offense is declining is true, even if the's keeping pace with that trend, he's still declining as well, isn't he? I mean, if the league sees a 10% reduction in slugging next year, and Sandoval declines 10% as well...he's still declining.

Wouldn't that merely be keeping pace then? If traffic slows down to 45 MPH and I do the same, I'm keeping pace.

 

[TomRicardo]

Cuddyer's 35 and only played in 49 games - that's not a guy who should be banking on a multiyear deal, no matter how good he was in those 49 games.  I can't imagine he doesn't accept the QO - who is giving up a 1st round pick for 35yr old off an injury riddled season?

 

 

[benhogan]

3B options:
1. sign Sandoval to a reasonable length deal (4-5yrs) - SF has the edge here since they know the player, have the WS euphoria, and have the $$$ to keep him
2. sign Headley to a 3yr deal - looks like the Yankees have the inside edge and $$$ to retain him
3. trade for Beltre - Texas would have a tough time explaining this to their fan base
4. trade for Donaldson - Oakland has come out and said they won't deal him, so thats a pipe dream.
5. trade for Daniel Murphy - not a bad #7 hitter, LHH, last year of control, hit much better on the road, would cost about $7.5MM. 
6. trade for Luis Valbuena - not a bad #8 hitter, LHH with some pop, controlled for 2 seasons, would cost around $3MM next year
7. sign and convince Hanley Ramirez to play 3rd- probably tricky to convince him to move off SS and expensive.
 
So if all fails above I guess we would have to live with some sort of combo of Cecchini/Holt/Weeks platoon (WMB needs to play everyday at AAA for at least 2 months to see if he regains the ability to hit).  
 
Hopefully the Sox would use the cost savings on more or better starting pitching:
1. So sign Lester or Scherzer
2. trade for either Cueto, Hamels, Shark or Kazmir (Latos velocity drop/injury has depressed his STEAMER projection)
 
and in lieu of not signing an expensive 3rd basemen
3. sign Shields or Liriano
 
Probably asking for too much...

 

[ALiveH]

If the 3B options really are as dire as above, the Sox have to at least think about exploring SS options and moving Bogaerts to 3B, where he should be a plus-defender.

 

[TomRicardo]

Valbuena is not a upgrade from Holt/Cecchini/Middlebrooks especially if you have to trade anything at all.
 
Shortstop is even worse than 3B.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I am guessing that giving Cuddyer the QO was an (ill advised) gamble aimed at gaining a draft pick when he leaves. 
 
That said, the Rockies have more talent on their team than I had believed when I made that comment. It is quite possible they could be fringe contenders next year.

 
They sort of had a perfect storm last year of much of their pitching imploding, and I agree could be a few wise moves from being much better next year.  The problem is that their front office, coming out of the box this hot stove, seems delusional.  Maybe they luck out on Cuddyer and he declines, but that was an irrational move.  More to the point of this thread, the Tulo statements are bizarre.  We'll consider moving him, but only if you pretend he played 150 games each of the last three years, not an average of 88.  They might as well say, "we're looking for an irrational trading partner."  At this moment in time, Tulo is worth his contract.  Do you give something up for Mike Trout like potential upside?  Sure, you give up some equally optimistic pieces if you need a left-side infielder. Which means a deal won't happen in a zillion years.  Which means the Rockies are simply out there saying nonsense things for no purpose that do nothing to help the team.  Which suggests to me that they won't be a contender in the near future.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Mostly because I'm still holding out hope for Cecchini to be our eventual 3Bman, I'm in favor of #5 or #6 on BH's list above.

 

[sean1562]

has anyone read anything anywhere that said the rangers are trying to rebuild? or are trying to trade their 3B? who starts at 3b for them if they trade Beltre? He is a perfect bridge to joey gallo. it makes zero sense for them to trade him and it just seems like a pipe dream. i dont understand why people keep bringing it up. we dont even match up with them well as trade partners.

 

[jimbobim]

grains of salt .... 
 
Sabean was on High Heat today with Russo , a GIANTS fan, and they eventually got around to Russo acknowledging the elephant or ( panda) in the room . Although his tone was resigned he asked Sabean if he was optimistic with regards to Sandoval. 
 
Sabean said " well only from the standpoint there seems to be mutual interest ..."and then qualified with it's a game and they will have parameters with regards "to dollars and more so years. " 
 
After thinking again about his answer it was essentially the Ellsbury stance the Red Sox had last year. Now I think everyone agrees Ells was heavily overpaid last year but he also didn't have as sizable conditioning concerns as Sandoval which is a hard to quantify but likely depressing variable on his overall pricetag. I would imagine based on Sabean specifically citing years that this comes down to who guarantees a 5th year or Sandova's age 33 season ? 3 years is probably ideal from a GM's perspective to let him go at 31 but the agent probably won't go for that even at 20 mill annually . I can see the Giants drawing a line at 4 for 80. 

 

[67WasBest]

grains of salt .... 
 
Sabean was on High Heat today with Russo , a GIANTS fan, and they eventually got around to Russo acknowledging the elephant or ( panda) in the room . Although his tone was resigned he asked Sabean if he was optimistic with regards to Sandoval. 
 
Sabean said " well only from the standpoint there seems to be mutual interest ..."and then qualified with it's a game and they will have parameters with regards "to dollars and more so years. " 
 
After thinking again about his answer it was essentially the Ellsbury stance the Red Sox had last year. Now I think everyone agrees Ells was heavily overpaid last year but he also didn't have as sizable conditioning concerns as Sandoval which is a hard to quantify but likely depressing variable on his overall pricetag. I would imagine based on Sabean specifically citing years that this comes down to who guarantees a 5th year or Sandova's age 33 season ? 3 years is probably ideal from a GM's perspective to let him go at 31 but the agent probably won't go for that even at 20 mill annually . I can see the Giants drawing a line at 4 for 80. 

Sabean has a concern the Sox may not because they have a DH slot open to them.

 

[YTF]

Sabean also might not have the third to first base option that other teams might entertain. I'm guessing at some point their going to want to move Posey out from behind the plate if he's still with the team. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Good luck to them if they want a full prospect package for Ras-I-Tulowitzki. I'm not sure I'd take his contract on period, with nothing in return.

 
This might not be the right thread, but are you really saying you wouldn't take on Tulo and his contract, even if it was a matter of him being put on waivers by the Rockies, making it to the Sox and not being pulled back? I think that's nuts, but I'd be interested to hear your reasoning. Even if he has to move off of short because of his most recent injury and he doesn't play more than 120 games a season, he'd be worth his contract.

 

[moondog80]

 
This might not be the right thread, but are you really saying you wouldn't take on Tulo and his contract, even if it was a matter of him being put on waivers by the Rockies, making it to the Sox and not being pulled back? I think that's nuts, but I'd be interested to hear your reasoning. Even if he has to move off of short because of his most recent injury and he doesn't play more than 120 games a season, he'd be worth his contract.

I'd have to think about it. He'd be worth it at 120 games if he continues to be productive at his recent pace, but how likely is that? All those injuries make me nervous of a Youkilis-like rapid descent. And he's signed for a long time.

 

[MakMan44]

Well he could pretty easily DH when he can't play SS. Keeping him off the field should increase his games played per season.

 

[Drek717]

Cuddyer's 35 and only played in 49 games - that's not a guy who should be banking on a multiyear deal, no matter how good he was in those 49 games.  I can't imagine he doesn't accept the QO - who is giving up a 1st round pick for 35yr old off an injury riddled season?

The Mets (or more accurately Mets beat writers) publicly drooling over the guy suggests he might have some kind of real market.  I mean, I'd agree that he isn't the kind of guy you give a multi-year deal to, but then he's also not the kind of guy you give a $15M QO to either I wouldn't think.  One team already did the later.  I could see a power strapped team doing the former.  It's a gamble, but if the Rockies think they can still compete it might not be one they're willing to live with the negative ramifications that result from it.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Well he could pretty easily DH when he can't play SS. Keeping him off the field should increase his games played per season.

 
That would also have a negative effect on his value. He's been an above average defender over his career at the most difficult defensive position besides catcher. DHing him would help him stay on the field but also punch a few holes in those WAR figures. I still think he'll be worth his contract going forward, especially given inflation over the life of it, but I'll concede that it's not a slam dunk that he'll still be worth it in the last couple of years. That said, he'll very likely be worth more than he's being paid in the first few so it should balance out.

 

[gaelgirl]

Sabean also might not have the third to first base option that other teams might entertain. I'm guessing at some point their going to want to move Posey out from behind the plate if he's still with the team. 

 
Sandoval is a spectacular fielder. Even when he's significantly overweight, he's still a decent fielder. While his skills will likely decline with age, there's not really a pressing need to move him off of third base. His biggest issue is conditioning, which affects his hitting as much as fielding. If he's too big to be playing third, he's too big to hit well, too. His ability to play third is sort of a bellwether on his offensive ability. 
 
Posey's contract runs until 2021, with an option I think for 2022. Unless he falls off a cliff, he's going to be with the Giants for a long, long time. Eventually I think he will move to first. I think when that happens depends on how well Brandon Belt continues developing and if Andrew Susac is the real deal at catcher. 

 

[TomRicardo]

3B options:
1. sign Sandoval to a reasonable length deal (4-5yrs) - SF has the edge here since they know the player, have the WS euphoria, and have the $$$ to keep him
2. sign Headley to a 3yr deal - looks like the Yankees have the inside edge and $$$ to retain him
3. trade for Beltre - Texas would have a tough time explaining this to their fan base
4. trade for Donaldson - Oakland has come out and said they won't deal him, so thats a pipe dream.
5. trade for Daniel Murphy - not a bad #7 hitter, LHH, last year of control, hit much better on the road, would cost about $7.5MM. 
6. trade for Luis Valbuena - not a bad #8 hitter, LHH with some pop, controlled for 2 seasons, would cost around $3MM next year
7. sign and convince Hanley Ramirez to play 3rd- probably tricky to convince him to move off SS and expensive.
 
So if all fails above I guess we would have to live with some sort of combo of Cecchini/Holt/Weeks platoon (WMB needs to play everyday at AAA for at least 2 months to see if he regains the ability to hit).  
 
Hopefully the Sox would use the cost savings on more or better starting pitching:
1. So sign Lester or Scherzer
2. trade for either Cueto, Hamels, Shark or Kazmir (Latos velocity drop/injury has depressed his STEAMER projection)
 
and in lieu of not signing an expensive 3rd basemen
3. sign Shields or Liriano
 
Probably asking for too much...

 
 
1.  Ether Beane and do a Weekend at Bernie's trade for Donaldson
2.  Sign Hanley Ramirez to play 3B
3.  Convince the Rockies to take a grab bag of minor league pitchers we have or any prospect/young player not named Betts, Bogaerts, or Swihart, move Tulo to 3B.
4.  Sign Headley
5.  Trade a bag of balls (Marrero or something) for Murphy
6.  Sign ... Sandoval ... sigh
7.  Stick with what we have

 

[moondog80]

 
That would also have a negative effect on his value. He's been an above average defender over his career at the most difficult defensive position besides catcher. DHing him would help him stay on the field but also punch a few holes in those WAR figures. I still think he'll be worth his contract going forward, especially given inflation over the life of it, but I'll concede that it's not a slam dunk that he'll still be worth it in the last couple of years. That said, he'll very likely be worth more than he's being paid in the first few so it should balance out.

 
My worry is that he won't be worth it in two years.  280 games missed the past 5 years.  When does that start to catch up to him?

 

[SoxLegacy]

Wasn't Joey Gallo murdered at Umberto's Clam House?

You are correct, sir. Next up, Joe & Mary's where Carmine Galante enjoyed his last cigar.

 

[soxhop411]

“@hankschulman: Talked to Sandoval’s agent, Gustavo Vasquez. Sandoval wants at least 6 years. At 28, length of deal more important than last $. #SFGiants”

“@hankschulman: Talked to Sandoval’s agent, Gustavo Vasquez. Sandoval wants at least 6 years. At 28, length of deal more important than last $. #SFGiants”


https://twitter.com/hankschulman/status/530516606229958656

https://twitter.com/hankschulman/status/530516606229958656

link to tweet

 

[soxhop411]

UPDATE, 4:35 p.m.: Pablo Sandoval is seeking at least a six-year free-agent contract, with the length of the deal more important to the third baseman than the dollars, his agent just told me.

Gustavo Vasquez, speaking after he met with Sandoval in Florida, said he has spoken to a “few teams” about the third baseman since free agency began in earnest Tuesday. That includes the Giants.

However, Vasquez said the Giants have not made offer and instead have discussed options for the length of a deal.

“Pablo is 28,” Vasquez said. “He is still young. Maybe if he was 30 or 31 we could talk about four or five years. But he’s 28. He deserves more than that.”

Sandoval has no specific dollar figure in mind, but Vasquez said the Panda is willing to work with a team on the average annual value of a contract if he gets the years he wants.


Six years could be a tough sell for a player who has battled conditioning issues his entire career. But Vasquez reiterated that Sandoval is more mature and will not allow himself to get so overweight again that he cannot perform. Sandoval plans to begin workouts in a week.

Also, Vasquez said, “The teams we are talking to have not asked about Pablo’s weight.”

Vasquez has meetings set up with several teams at next week’s general managers meetings in Phoenix, and hopes to speak with the Giants’ brass, too.

Furthermore, Sandoval does not feel the need to drag out negotiations. If he sees an offer he likes, the agent said, “He’ll sign fast.”

http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2014/11/06/sabean-bochy-discuss-sandoval-lincecum-and-where-the-other-sf-giants-free-agents-stand/

 

[MakMan44]

So there's an AAV for 6 years I'd give to Panda but I'm not sure he'd sign it.

 

[jimbobim]

It's kinda funny to say he'll sign fast and then say he wants 6 years. I like Pablo but I'd be calling Headley or Hanley.  

 

[TigerBlood]

Also, Vasquez said, “The teams we are talking to have not asked about Pablo’s weight.”

 
Meaning they stop talking to teams who bring it up.

 

[gaelgirl]

I doubt that's what it means. I suspect it means no team has gotten far enough into negotiations that his weight is a talking point. 
 
I am not surprised Pablo wants six years. This is likely his one shot at a great contract. If he gets six years, those last one or two could be brutal. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

@ChrisCotillo: Sandoval camp plans to meet with teams, including #RedSox, at next week's GM meetings.

 

[jimbobim]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  8m8 minutes ago
Sandoval's agent Gustavo Vasquez told me "we're just looking for the best deal for Pablo". Not setting a minimum # of years in negotiations.
0 replies4 retweets2 favorites

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Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  8m8 minutes ago
#SFGiants have not made a formal offer to Sandoval since end of WS besides qualifying-offer, which was rejected. #RedSox have not, either.
 
The minimum years comment directly refutes beat writer Shulman's report. Seeing as Shulman's article went up an hour so ago Cotillo knows that. We shall see but for Shulman the 6 year angle was the entirety of his scoop. He has to be steamed at the agent for speaking out of both sides of his mouth depending on the reporter.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

"Plans to begin workouts in a week"

Prime Feed

 

[MakMan44]

I've planned to start a diet next week and hit the gym for going on about three years now.

To be fair, I imagine the promise of multimillions would get you to follow through on going to the gym too. 

 

[jimbobim]

Pretty good rundown on the latest contradictory developments on Pablo ... 
 
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/11/6/7171899/mlb-free-agency-pablo-sandoval-giants
 
SB Nation's Chris Cotillo spoke to Vasquez, who refuted Schulman's report and said Sandoval is not setting a minimum number of years. A shorter-term deal makes sense considering Sandoval is only 28 and could land another lucrative free-agent contract later in his career.
The Giants, with whom Sandoval won three World Series championships, have yet to make a formal long-term contract offer, per Cotillo. Sandoval recently rejected the team's $15.3 million qualifying offer.
The two-time All-Star enters the free-agent market a career .294/.346/.465 hitter, good for a 123 OPS+. Sandoval might expect to land around $118 million with a six-year deal, SB Nation's Grant Brisbee recently predicted.