The future at 3rd

[Al Zarilla]

Giants won 3 titles with him on the team but he was benched for the first one because of fat. He came to spring training in 2011 in his best shape ever in the majors, only to get fat again for parts of 2012 and 2013. But, he was WS MVP in 2012. He was in good shape for him this year, ostensibly because it was a contract year. What an enigma, and I would not want to be in Ben C's shoes for this decision. I mean, how many other teams (Yankees and Giants?) have the need for a third baseman and can afford this one? Please come to Boston for the summer? I don't know,

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Giants won 3 titles with him on the team but he was benched for the first one because of fat. He came to spring training in 2011 in his best shape ever in the majors, only to get fat again for parts of 2012 and 2013. But, he was WS MVP in 2012. He was in good shape for him this year, ostensibly because it was a contract year. What an enigma, and I would not want to be in Ben C's shoes for this decision. I mean, how many other teams (Yankees and Giants?) have the need for a third baseman and can afford this one? Please come to Boston for the summer? I don't know,

Seeing him play in the post season changed my mind a little bit. Is he fat? Yes. But then again if body type was a big deal then guys like Youkilis or Panda never would have made the majors. He's 28 not 33 so I could care less about the body type. If the argument about giving him a 6 year deal as opposed to Headley getting a 4 year deal or trading prospects for Donaldson is that Panda "will balloon up to 300 pounds by the time he signs" then you obviously do not have faith in the front office.

You don't think every team is putting a weight clause in his contract? Including The Giants? I mean Panda plays solid defense, is athletic, and hits. He hits even better in big games. Sure I would give him 6, but I wouldn't give him 20 million.

 

[NDame616]

 
Meaning they stop talking to teams who bring it up.

??
 
So, if the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs asked about his weight, Panda's camp would then shut them out of discussions? You're kidding right?
 
Here is what that means:
"I don't know what you guys are talking about with his weight. No team has brought it up because it isn't a concern to the teams." regardless of if it is true
 
BTW the next leak would be "Top 3 FA teams concerned with Panda's weight" to try to suppress the market.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Seeing him play in the post season changed my mind a little bit. Is he fat? Yes. But then again if body type was a big deal then guys like Youkilis or Panda never would have made the majors.

 
Youk was kind of pudgy. Panda is obese. We're not talking about a "bad body guy" here, we're talking about Jabba the Hutt. I mean, yes it's awesome how his athletic talent manages to shine through the avoirdupois, but at some point the other shoe is going to drop and he's going to start sprouting injuries from the stress all that poundage has to be putting on his joints.
 
If it's really true that he's open to a short deal because he thinks he can cash in again, then get 'er done Ben. How about 3/65 with two 20M mutual option years? (Mutual option years make it sort of like an opt-out but with both sides getting to choose.) It's 5/105 if everybody's happy, with escape clauses if everybody's not.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
Youk was kind of pudgy. Panda is obese. We're not talking about a "bad body guy" here, we're talking about Jabba the Hutt. I mean, yes it's awesome how his athletic talent manages to shine through the avoirdupois, but at some point the other shoe is going to drop and he's going to start sprouting injuries from the stress all that poundage has to be putting on his joints.
 
If it's really true that he's open to a short deal because he thinks he can cash in again, then get 'er done Ben. How about 3/65 with two 20M mutual option years? (Mutual option years make it sort of like an opt-out but with both sides getting to choose.) It's 5/105 if everybody's happy, with escape clauses if everybody's not.

I agree that at some point his weight will get the best of him. However I doubt it's going to be at 29 years old. If you want to put an opt out in there after 3 years then that works too. Remember when CC signed with the Yankees the first time it was a pretty good signing. It's only when they added on another contract on top of the existing deal when he started to break down. However, that was more so the mileage on his arm and less about his weight. I would take the gamble on him over Headley whom I really do not think is all that great. His defense is outstanding but the Sox could do better with the bat.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Would even exploring a Longoria trade be worth it considering it would be with the carcass of the Tamp Bay Rays? 

 

[sean1562]

Would even exploring a Longoria trade be worth it considering it would be with the carcass of the Tamp Bay Rays? 

there is absolutely no way that happens. it is not worth discussing. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Teams haven't brought up his weight? Talk aboutt an 'elephant in the room'...

 

[TigerBlood]

??
 
So, if the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs asked about his weight, Panda's camp would then shut them out of discussions? You're kidding right?
 
Here is what that means:
"I don't know what you guys are talking about with his weight. No team has brought it up because it isn't a concern to the teams." regardless of if it is true
 
BTW the next leak would be "Top 3 FA teams concerned with Panda's weight" to try to suppress the market.

 
I was poking fun at the people who mentioned a weight clause... ease up haha.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Looks like Ramirez could be an option at 3B for the Sox if this is true.
 
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS

longtime SS star hanley ramirez is telling teams he'd play 3B if needed, or maybe even elsewhere. cbsprt.co/1Ep4PWW
 

 
Free agent star Hanley Ramirez, one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball over the last nine seasons, is telling interested teams he is willing to play "wherever there's a need," a clear signal he would switch to third base and perhaps even elsewhere on the diamond, which could potentially open up his market to several more teams.
Ramirez's invitation to play a different position has been taken by interested teams to mean he'd even consider a corner outfield spot or perhaps even first base for desirable teams in winning situations, multiple executives with interest in Ramirez say.

 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If Hanley will move to third he could shore up the offense in a hurry. The defense on the left side of the infield would be piss poor, but the bats might be good enough to make it worth the defensive pains. I just don't think he'll sign for anything close to what I'd be comfortable with. I'm guessing he ends up in New York. It makes too much sense to not happen. Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez, Napoli is a helluva way to start your lineup, though.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Pablo talk is getting crazy out west. One guy on CSN Bay Area said today what if the Red Sox offer Pablo 7/$150M. It wasn't Andrew Baggarly, who is the one guy that does a really good job reporting on the Giants. Of course, they never mention Pablo's weight problem, just world series hero, again, top fan favorite...They are saying the Giants really have nobody in the system to replace Pablo. Two names were mentioned, Adam Duvall and Matt Duffy. Duvall has good OPS potential but is probably a butcher anywhere in the field except 1B. Duffy is a middle infielder, really. Both had good sized cups of coffee with the Giants; Duffy made the post season roster, all series. I haven't heard a single mention of trying Posey at third. Brian Sabean is between a rock and a hard place at 3B. But, we won't feel sorry for the Giants. 
 
How much is Hanley looking for?

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
Looks like Ramirez could be an option at 3B for the Sox if this is true.
 
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS

longtime SS star hanley ramirez is telling teams he'd play 3B if needed, or maybe even elsewhere. cbsprt.co/1Ep4PWW
 
 

 

 
Hanley clearly has greater upside, but is also so risky due to his brittle nature mentally and physically. 
 
He would absolutely punish Fenway. 

 

[nattysez]

Pablo talk is getting crazy out west. One guy on CSN Bay Area said today what if the Red Sox offer Pablo 7/$150M. It wasn't Andrew Baggarly, who is the one guy that does a really good job reporting on the Giants. Of course, they never mention Pablo's weight problem, just world series hero, again, top fan favorite...They are saying the Giants really have nobody in the system to replace Pablo. Two names were mentioned, Adam Duvall and Matt Duffy. Duvall has good OPS potential but is probably a butcher anywhere in the field except 1B. Duffy is a middle infielder, really. Both had good sized cups of coffee with the Giants; Duffy made the post season roster, all series. I haven't heard a single mention of trying Posey at third. Brian Sabean is between a rock and a hard place at 3B. But, we won't feel sorry for the Giants. 
 
How much is Hanley looking for?

 
Brian Sabean admitted yesterday that Pablo is the Giants' #1 priority and that they have no one in the system to replace him.  They've even told their other free agents that the Giants need to wait until Panda's situation gets worked out before they can deal with them.
 
FWIW, last year, Pablo was OPS'ing under .600 until mid-May, heated up for a long stretch, then dropped from .770 to .739 in the last month of the season.  In 2013, he was OPS'ing over .800 until late May, then dropped as low as .673 in early July before righting the ship.  Long story short, he is really, really streaky, so if he comes to the Sox, fans are going to have to be prepared to deal with some long stretches where he looks awful at the plate. 

 

[MakMan44]

If Hanley will move to third he could shore up the offense in a hurry. The defense on the left side of the infield would be piss poor, but the bats might be good enough to make it worth the defensive pains. I just don't think he'll sign for anything close to what I'd be comfortable with. I'm guessing he ends up in New York. It makes too much sense to not happen. Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez, Napoli is a helluva way to start your lineup, though.

If the Yankees sign Hanley that also removes a suitor for Headley. As I prefer him to Pablo, I'm all for this.

 

[TigerBlood]

If the Yankees sign Hanley that also removes a suitor for Headley. As I prefer him to Pablo, I'm all for this.

I haven't heard much about the Yankees being players for Hanley. Did you mean this or the reverse?

 

[MakMan44]

 
I haven't heard much about the Yankees being players for Hanley. Did you mean this or the reverse?
 

Did you even read the post I quoted?
 

Unless the Yankees sign Hanley for SS, and Headley for 3B.

True. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Brian Sabean admitted yesterday that Pablo is the Giants' #1 priority and that they have no one in the system to replace him.  They've even told their other free agents that the Giants need to wait until Panda's situation gets worked out before they can deal with them.
 
FWIW, last year, Pablo was OPS'ing under .600 until mid-May, heated up for a long stretch, then dropped from .770 to .739 in the last month of the season.  In 2013, he was OPS'ing over .800 until late May, then dropped as low as .673 in early July before righting the ship.  Long story short, he is really, really streaky, so if he comes to the Sox, fans are going to have to be prepared to deal with some long stretches where he looks awful at the plate. 

Yeah, all the talk during Pablo's horrible start to 2014 was that he was destroying his free agency [SIZE=13.63636302948px]contract [/SIZE]future, and then he turned it all around and here we are. Strangely, the Giants got off to a great start without him doing anything at bat. 

 

[foulkehampshire]

If the Yankees sign Hanley that also removes a suitor for Headley. As I prefer him to Pablo, I'm all for this.

 
The positional flexibility Hanley could offer at SS/3B makes him a great fit for the Yankees, admittedly. They also lust for those 5/100+ mil contracts as well. 
 
Oh, and poor fielding SS's. 

 

[TomRicardo]

Unless the Yankees sign Hanley for SS, and Headley for 3B.

 
That would be awesome for the fact the Yankees would have 220+ million payroll and still would probably miss the playoffs.

 

[moondog80]

If Hanley will move to third he could shore up the offense in a hurry. The defense on the left side of the infield would be piss poor, but the bats might be good enough to make it worth the defensive pains. 

 
 
Would it?  Is there a reason to think Hanley wouldn't do well with the switch to 3B?

 

[MakMan44]

 
 
Would it?  Is there a reason to think Hanley wouldn't do well with the switch to 3B?

He was pretty bad in 2012. 
 
EDIT: It's one season of data though, so it means almost nothing. 

 

[moondog80]

He was pretty bad in 2012. 
 
EDIT: It's one season of data though, so it means almost nothing. 

 
 
OK, I had forgotten he moved there briefly when the Marlins signed Reyes.  SSS noted, but at least there's plenty of game tape for people smarter than me to analyze.

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
 
OK, I had forgotten he moved there briefly when the Marlins signed Reyes.  SSS noted, but at least there's plenty of game tape for people smarter than me to analyze.

 
Hanley probably has the athleticism and arm to probably be at least average at 3B. 
 
I haven't really seen his work at SS, but I thought the book on him was that his issues were more mentally related than lack of ability. 

 

[Green Monster]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24788109/shortstop-star-hanley-is-telling-teams-hed-play-3b-or-even-elsewhere
 
Free agent star Hanley Ramirez, one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball over the last nine seasons, is telling interested teams he is willing to play "wherever there's a need," a clear signal he would switch to third base and perhaps even elsewhere on the diamond, which could potentially open up his market to several more teams.....................

 

[67WasBest]

 
Hanley probably has the athleticism and arm to probably be at least average at 3B. 
 
I haven't really seen his work at SS, but I thought the book on him was that his issues were more mentally related than lack of ability. 

More like effort related, as in, he won't put in the time to gain the ability he needs at a new position.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24788109/shortstop-star-hanley-is-telling-teams-hed-play-3b-or-even-elsewhere
 
Free agent star Hanley Ramirez, one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball over the last nine seasons, is telling interested teams he is willing to play "wherever there's a need," a clear signal he would switch to third base and perhaps even elsewhere on the diamond, which could potentially open up his market to several more teams.....................

 
You don't say.

 

[plucy]

Pablo talk is getting crazy out west. One guy on CSN Bay Area said today what if the Red Sox offer Pablo 7/$150M. It wasn't Andrew Baggarly, who is the one guy that does a really good job reporting on the Giants. Of course, they never mention Pablo's weight problem, just world series hero, again, top fan favorite...They are saying the Giants really have nobody in the system to replace Pablo. Two names were mentioned, Adam Duvall and Matt Duffy. Duvall has good OPS potential but is probably a butcher anywhere in the field except 1B. Duffy is a middle infielder, really. Both had good sized cups of coffee with the Giants; Duffy made the post season roster, all series. I haven't heard a single mention of trying Posey at third. Brian Sabean is between a rock and a hard place at 3B. But, we won't feel sorry for the Giants. 
 
How much is Hanley looking for?

KNBR host said at noon he's hearing 6/132 from Sox. Station is.the mouthpiece for the team so take it for what it's worth.

 

[soxhop411]

KNBR host said at noon he's hearing 6/132 from Sox. Station is.the mouthpiece for the team so take it for what it's worth.

I highly doubt that. Highly.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Yeah. I really can't conceive of a projection system that values Panda that much over such a length of time. 
 
Then again, Carl Crawford - so what do I know. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

KNBR host said at noon he's hearing 6/132 from Sox. Station is.the mouthpiece for the team so take it for what it's worth.

That's insane. If that was the case then Panda would be having a press conference at Fenway tomorrow selling some bricks to prospective season ticket holders.

 

[ehaz]

Pablo talk is getting crazy out west. One guy on CSN Bay Area said today what if the Red Sox offer Pablo 7/$150M. It wasn't Andrew Baggarly, who is the one guy that does a really good job reporting on the Giants. Of course, they never mention Pablo's weight problem, just world series hero, again, top fan favorite...They are saying the Giants really have nobody in the system to replace Pablo. Two names were mentioned, Adam Duvall and Matt Duffy. Duvall has good OPS potential but is probably a butcher anywhere in the field except 1B. Duffy is a middle infielder, really. Both had good sized cups of coffee with the Giants; Duffy made the post season roster, all series. I haven't heard a single mention of trying Posey at third. Brian Sabean is between a rock and a hard place at 3B. But, we won't feel sorry for the Giants. 
 
How much is Hanley looking for?

You'd have to think if the bidding gets that high, they let him walk and shift Posey to third before he pulls a Joe Mauer. It just makes too much sense. Andrew Susac is well regarded, 24, and certainly good enough to start at catcher.

 

[plucy]

You'd have to think if the bidding gets that high, they let him walk and shift Posey to third before he pulls a Joe Mauer. It just makes too much sense. Andrew Susac is well regarded, 24, and certainly good enough to start at catcher.

Well he could still catch the red eye and be in BOS Sat am

 

[Fireball Fred]

Would the Giants overpay Panda? Well, the Sox gave Mike Lowell a contract he never should have had coming off his World Series heroics. It happens.

 

[gaelgirl]

The Giants are also in a pretty bad situation at third if he leaves, so that could lead to some overpaying.
 
I have a question: The marketing value of Pablo Sandoval is high for the the Giants. Panda hats and shirts and all that. Would it be the same in Boston? Could you envision Red Sox fans in red panda hats or giant panda heads? 

 

[Darnell's Son]

The Giants are also in a pretty bad situation at third if he leaves, so that could lead to some overpaying.
 
I have a question: The marketing value of Pablo Sandoval is high for the the Giants. Panda hats and shirts and all that. Would it be the same in Boston? Could you envision Red Sox fans in red panda hats or giant panda heads? 

Most definitely. $30 for a panda head. Wally gets a new friend. Big Red Panda and the Big Green Monster...yuck.

 

[mBiferi]

The Giants are also in a pretty bad situation at third if he leaves, so that could lead to some overpaying.
 
I have a question: The marketing value of Pablo Sandoval is high for the the Giants. Panda hats and shirts and all that. Would it be the same in Boston? Could you envision Red Sox fans in red panda hats or giant panda heads? 

 
I think the marketing value in Boston could be even higher. Specially if Ortiz leaves in 1 or 2 years.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Giants are also in a pretty bad situation at third if he leaves, so that could lead to some overpaying.
 
I have a question: The marketing value of Pablo Sandoval is high for the the Giants. Panda hats and shirts and all that. Would it be the same in Boston? Could you envision Red Sox fans in red panda hats or giant panda heads? 

I could envision Red Sox fans joining him on the DL from repeatedly banging ourselves in the head. 2014 was a prototypical focused and in shape contract year performance. I hope we don't overpay for this.

 

[ehaz]

I could envision Red Sox fans joining him on the DL from repeatedly banging ourselves in the head. 2014 was a prototypical focused and in shape contract year performance. I hope we don't overpay for this.

Yes. Didn't Brian Sabean publicly discuss sending him to the minors to open the season but a year or two ago because his conditioning was so bad? And we're talking about giving this clown a nine figure contract. Yikes.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm not a fan of signing Sandoval, at least not at the kind of terms it looks like he'll command. But I don't really understand calling 2014 "a prototypical focused and in shape contract year performance." True, it was the most games he's ever played as a major leaguer, but not by all that much (157 vs. 141, 152, 153 in 2013, 2010, 2009). And the quality of the performance, offensively at least, was his worst since 2010. Pretty ordinary year all in all.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I have a question: The marketing value of Pablo Sandoval is high for the the Giants. Panda hats and shirts and all that. Would it be the same in Boston? Could you envision Red Sox fans in red panda hats or giant panda heads? 

No.

In Boston, they will be pink Pandas.

 

[Al Zarilla]

No.

In Boston, they will be pink Pandas.

I think they would keep them black and white, which, after all, pandas are. Maybe any slight orange trim goes to red. Too bad Barry Zito never applied for a patent to collect royalties on all Pablo Panda products. 
 

 

[Paradigm]

No to Sandoval. A fine player, great in the postseason, impressive defensively because of his size, but not a superstar type that warrants the kind of contract he's bound to receive. Have to worry about how the body will age.
 
If you think Hanley Ramirez will play third base and won't cause an emotional stink during his tenure here because he's moving off shortstop, he's the kind of player who warrants that contract because his offensive potential is so great.
 
Otherwise, Headley on a two year deal. Just no more Middlebrooks. Trade him to a rebuilding team.

 

[plucy]

According to the Fangraphs depth chart for the Sox, WMB and Cecchini are projected to provide about 2.3 fWAR in '15. The Steamer 600 projections ( which are used in the current depth chart) gives Sandoval 3.6 and Headley, 3.9. So it will cost an additional $13-19MM for about 1.5 fWAR depending on who you sign (contract AAV range about $14-20MM estimated).

It's early so I want to see what other projection systems say about these players, but neither of these choices seem to warrant an upgrade at the price ( unless Headley is closer to $12MM AAV).

Also Holt is not on the depth chart but is project at 1.8 fWAR /600. In place of Cecchini it's about 2 fWAR.

Edit: sorry reversed projected fWAR for Sandoval and Headley.

 

[ZMart100]

...It's early so I want to see what other projection systems say about these players...

Clay Davenport has his initial projections out on player cards (including 6 year projections and decile projections for next year for those who are interested). He gives WARP projections, but I wouldn't take Holt's seriously at 3B since it isn't clear where he would be projected defensively. I normalized the WARP projections for 600 PAs so they are more directly comparable.

[tablegrid Davenport's Projections]Name PA BA OBP SLG EqA WARP WARP/600 Headley 587 0.271 0.359 0.438 0.281 3.7 3.8 Sandoval 539 0.276 0.338 0.404 0.280 3.4 3.8 Cecchini 523 0.269 0.344 0.399 0.267 2.3 2.6 Middlebrooks 449 0.248 0.296 0.462 0.259 1.8 2.4 Holt 551 0.283 0.338 0.371 0.254 1.7 1.9 [/tablegrid]

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Interesting that Davenport has Headley with a significantly higher SLG than Sandoval. That's only happened once, and in age-matched terms, never (i.e., Sandoval has had a higher SLG at any given age than Headley had at the same age). Especially considering that Headley is three years older, it seems like a pretty eccentric projection, and I'd be curious how he came up with it.

 

[arzjake]

Beltre has two yrs left at 34mil. No talk of Beltre?
 
Perfect bridge to Cechinni Devers or Chavis or whomever emerges at the position...
 
Bye Bye Will, Time to move on, its only business,

 

[Al Zarilla]

Beltre has two yrs left at 34mil. No talk of Beltre?
 
Perfect bridge to Cechinni Devers or Chavis or whomever emerges at the position...
 
Bye Bye Will, Time to move on, its only business,

He's 36 next April. No expiry date? He did not show any signs of slowing down last year. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Devers and Chavis will take longer than two years to be ready. More then likely they will take four if they pan out. Headley would be a better bridge by far. He only costs money and could fill that roster spot for the actual gap that exists. I'm not sold on Cecchini being a viable long term option at third.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Yeah, the more and more I think about it, the more I like Headley on a 3-4 year deal especially if the AAV is moderately less than Sandoval.

As an added bonus, if Cecchini tears up AAA next year, you'd have to think he'd be a pretty good trade chip.