The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

leetinsley38

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Like HRB, I think this will be a moot point anyways since I’d bet that the Pelicans own this pick in a couple months in whatever form it takes.
The problem if the pick conveys is it puts Ainge in a very tricky spot if they want to trade it for AD. Either take a player you like and the Pelicans may not = loses value in a trade. Or, you take a guy the Pelicans like, but then if you don’t like that guy too you’ve lost a lot of leverage/value.
 

djbayko

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The problem if the pick conveys is it puts Ainge in a very tricky spot if they want to trade it for AD. Either take a player you like and the Pelicans may not = loses value in a trade. Or, you take a guy the Pelicans like, but then if you don’t like that guy too you’ve lost a lot of leverage/value.
It seems to me like you should be able to follow some sort of process which wouldn’t be too cumbersome whereby you arrive at a list of 1-3 players which both teams would be comfortable with keeping.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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It seems to me like you should be able to follow some sort of process which wouldn’t be too cumbersome whereby you arrive at a list of 1-3 players which both teams would be comfortable with keeping.
I'd also imagine that, as of the day of the draft, Ainge has figured out (1) if Kyrie is staying, and (2) if there's a deal the Pelicans would agree to. I'd be very surprised if the Celtics and the Pelicans don't know whether or not that player is going to New Orleans by then, even if it can't formally happen until July.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'd also imagine that, as of the day of the draft, Ainge has figured out (1) if Kyrie is staying, and (2) if there's a deal the Pelicans would agree to. I'd be very surprised if the Celtics and the Pelicans don't know whether or not that player is going to New Orleans by then, even if it can't formally happen until July.
Yeah, this was my assumption. Ainge will almost certainly know the deal by then. And I’d bet he has packages ready for a multitude of scenarios, such as Memphis pick conveying this year, next year, getting lucky on Sac pick, etc. They’ve been working on this for months. In a month, we’ll know if Zion will play a factor in this situation. If he goes to a team like Phoenix or Atlanta, then it basically comes down to Kyrie.
 

ishmael

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Later pick results are basically irrelevant. Everyone’s board is different after probably the top, err, 1 of this draft in particular. Lotto results for Memphis are the only thing that really matters.

In and of itself, the fact that potentially adding the 9th and 14th picks to this roster basically for free represents a worst case scenario means that things are pretty good overall. When they win the title this year we won’t care anyway.
Yep, we are so spoiled by the past few seasons of play on the court and Nets lotto picks.

I can still remember the 2001 draft, when we thought we had a stacked set of picks at number 10/11/21; the 2003 draft (Ainge's first), when we went in with 16/20 and came out with Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins; and the 2004 draft (the Robert Swift draft!), when we snagged Big Al/Delonte/Tony Allen at 15/24/25.

This year's picks (14/20/22) start off better than Ainge's first two seasons. And after the draft lottery we will either still own a future Memphis pick or move up to something like 9/14/20/22. Pretty amazing options.
 

wilked

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Boston owns pick 20 (traded from LAC) and 22 (it’s own).

Boston also owns Sacramento’s pick (#14). Two things can happen with this pick. If the SAC ping pong balls get picked for a top 4 position (5% chance), we will get that pick... unless it is #1 overall (1% chance) in which case the pick goes to Philly. So we obviously want to move up into the top 4, but Philly getting Zion is a nightmare scenario. If SAC gets no ping pong balls we stay at 14

Last one is Grizzlies pick (currently #8). (Edit to finish). If the pick is top 8 it stays w Memphis. 9 or later it goes to Boston. Odds say 52% chance it stays w Memphis. The way it goes to Boston is if a team 9 or later “jumps over” Memphis by getting their ping pong ball selected (such as SAC).

If it stays w Memphis, essentially this repeats next year except the cutoff will be 6 (top 6 Memphis keeps 7 or worse goes to Boston). And if that happens the year after pick is unprotected to Boston
 
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tbrown_01923

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Boston owns pick 20 (traded from LAC) and 22 (it’s own).

Boston also owns Sacramento’s pick (#14). Two things can happen with this pick. If the SAC ping pong balls get picked for a top 4 position (5% chance), we will get that pick... unless it is #1 overall (1% chance) in which case the pick goes to Philly. So we obviously want to move up into the top 4, but Philly getting Zion is a nightmare scenario.

Last one is Grizzlies pick (currently #8). Kids are calling and gotta run, someone else can finish this
Boston gets that memphis pick IF another team moves up in the lottery and displaces them one (or more) position(s). Or said another way if it turns out to be pick 9 or after.
 

ZMart100

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A few lottery probabilities not on tankathon

Best outcome (SAC #2, MEM #4) - 0.06%
Excellent outcome (SAC #2 and MEM top 4, SAC not #1) - 0.21%
Very good outcome (SAC #2, 3 or 4 and MEM top 4) - 0.71%
Very bad outcome (SAC #1, MEM conveys) - 0.81%
 

tbrown_01923

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A few lottery probabilities not on tankathon

Best outcome (SAC #2, MEM #4) - 0.06%
Excellent outcome (SAC #2 and MEM top 4, SAC not #1) - 0.21%
Very good outcome (SAC #2, 3 or 4 and MEM top 4) - 0.71%
Very bad outcome (SAC #1, MEM conveys) - 0.81%
+1 I was going to post something similar. If sac is top 4 we need memphis to be top 4 for it not to convey
 

BigSoxFan

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+1 I was going to post something similar. If sac is top 4 we need memphis to be top 4 for it not to convey
If SAC moves to top 2-4, I would have absolutely no problem if the MEM pick conveys at 9. That would be such a huge win for us.
 

tbrown_01923

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If SAC moves to top 2-4, I would have absolutely no problem if the MEM pick conveys at 9. That would be such a huge win for us.
agreed. but maximum value is sac in top 4 (actually 2 for max) and pushing memphis off a year - but a top 4 this year with memphis at 9 would be cool too ;)
 

Euclis20

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If Memphis gets a top 4 pick this year, it's entirely possible that it improves them to the point where their 2020 pick is worse than 9. If the pick doesn't convey because it's #8, great. If it doesn't convey because Memphis moved up, I'm not so sure that's a good thing. No guarantee the pick will be better next year if you add a top talent to that group.
 

the moops

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If Memphis gets a top 4 pick this year, it's entirely possible that it improves them to the point where their 2020 pick is worse than 9. If the pick doesn't convey because it's #8, great. If it doesn't convey because Memphis moved up, I'm not so sure that's a good thing. No guarantee the pick will be better next year if you add a top talent to that group.
Definitely no guarantees that the pick will be better. However, that future Memphis pick would hold far more value than the #9 pick this year.
 

TripleOT

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I think we're getting lucky and getting the 2 and 9. The anxiety I'm going to feel as they read off whether the Cs gets the 2 or the Sixers get the 1 is going to be incredible.

If the Cs move up, is there any way the Pels say no to the 2-4, the 9, the 20, Brown, and some kind of salary ballast (sign MaMo and Rozier to big two year FA deals)?
 

NoXInNixon

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If Memphis gets a top 4 pick this year, it's entirely possible that it improves them to the point where their 2020 pick is worse than 9. If the pick doesn't convey because it's #8, great. If it doesn't convey because Memphis moved up, I'm not so sure that's a good thing. No guarantee the pick will be better next year if you add a top talent to that group.
Unless they get #1, they're not going to be adding a player likely to be making them too much better next season. The top three rookies this year are all on teams with terrible records.
 

uk_sox_fan

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A few lottery probabilities not on tankathon

Best outcome (SAC #2, MEM #4) - 0.06%
Excellent outcome (SAC #2 and MEM top 4, SAC not #1) - 0.21%
Very good outcome (SAC #2, 3 or 4 and MEM top 4) - 0.71%
Very bad outcome (SAC #1, MEM conveys) - 0.81%
I've independently confirmed your Excellent, Very good and Very bad scenario probabilities, but you're under-selling the Best outcome chances. Odds are actually 27% better than you said (by which I unfortunately mean they're 0.0762% rather than meaning they're 27.06%...)
 

ZMart100

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I've independently confirmed your Excellent, Very good and Very bad scenario probabilities, but you're under-selling the Best outcome chances. Odds are actually 27% better than you said (by which I unfortunately mean they're 0.0762% rather than meaning they're 27.06%...)
So it is. I don't know how I made that error, but thanks for catching it.
 

saintnick912

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Boston also owns Sacramento’s pick (#14). Two things can happen with this pick. If the SAC ping pong balls get picked for a top 4 position (5% chance), we will get that pick... unless it is #1 overall (1% chance) in which case the pick goes to Philly. So we obviously want to move up into the top 4, but Philly getting Zion is a nightmare scenario. If SAC gets no ping pong balls we stay at 14
If the Sacramento pick moves to #1, then the Celtics would receive Philly's pick at #24.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If the Sacramento pick moves to #1, then the Celtics would receive Philly's pick at #24.
In this nightmare scenario I wouldn’t expect us to keep this pick and it’s guaranteed dollars. Even if we are selecting 14th along with 18th and 22nd without a blockbuster Davis deal I’d expect us to move (or stash) at least one if not two of these picks unless we completely gut this team of veterans looking to win now. If we are in contending mode those multiple $2.5m guaranteed slots for non-contributors are a killer to your cap/tax.
 

nighthob

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In this nightmare scenario I wouldn’t expect us to keep this pick and it’s guaranteed dollars. Even if we are selecting 14th along with 18th and 22nd without a blockbuster Davis deal I’d expect us to move (or stash) at least one if not two of these picks unless we completely gut this team of veterans looking to win now. If we are in contending mode those multiple $2.5m guaranteed slots for non-contributors are a killer to your cap/tax.
If Philadelphia lands the first pick then I'll be surprised if there are any draft & stash picks as Boston's not going to have many luxury tax worries. They'll be more worried about defending the Embiid/Unibrower/Whoever front line and finding a Kyrie replacement.
 

TripleOT

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If Philadelphia lands the first pick then I'll be surprised if there are any draft & stash picks as Boston's not going to have many luxury tax worries. They'll be more worried about defending the Embiid/Unibrower/Whoever front line and finding a Kyrie replacement.
If Philly hits their 200 to one shot, why not just roll out Embiid, Harris, Zion, Butler, and Simmons and take your chances? Too little shooting to contend?
 

nighthob

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Too little shooting and I will be stunned if the two pending free agents stick around. I have a sneaking suspicion that Harris ends up back in Clipperland to pair up with Kawhi. Or barring that suits up for Brooklyn next year. Butler is destined to be a Knick.
 

mcpickl

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Too little shooting and I will be stunned if the two pending free agents stick around. I have a sneaking suspicion that Harris ends up back in Clipperland to pair up with Kawhi. Or barring that suits up for Brooklyn next year. Butler is destined to be a Knick.
This would be really surprising.

Besides it being strange instantly returning to a place that just sent him packing, I'd assume because they weren't going to keep him long-term, they'd have to move Gallinari to make it fit both in terms of on court and for the cap.

I'd much rather just keep Gallinari at one year at 22 million than whatever Tobias is going to get as a free agent.

I'd bet on Philly just paying to keep Tobias after Butler walks.

Would be a disaster for Philly to just let both Butler and Tobias leave for nothing after dealing for them. They'll overpay at least one of them, even if just to save face.
 

moondog80

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When Tobias Harris signs his next deal, he will set the record for fastest transition from underrated to overrated.
 

TripleOT

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This would be really surprising.

Besides it being strange instantly returning to a place that just sent him packing, I'd assume because they weren't going to keep him long-term, they'd have to move Gallinari to make it fit both in terms of on court and for the cap.

I'd much rather just keep Gallinari at one year at 22 million than whatever Tobias is going to get as a free agent.

I'd bet on Philly just paying to keep Tobias after Butler walks.

Would be a disaster for Philly to just let both Butler and Tobias leave for nothing after dealing for them. They'll overpay at least one of them, even if just to save face.
Playing for the Clippers is a better situation than Philly. Great owner, great weather, good front office and coach, up and coming team with future draft picks (thanks Philly), a possible second max FA signee this summer and a favorable payroll structure for the future.

If Philly flames out in these playoffs, and Harris plays poorly and comes under criticism, that might push him back to the Clips, where the pressure to win isn't anything like in Philly. I so hope both Butler and Harris walk away from the Sixers.
 

benhogan

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Playing for the Clippers is a better situation than Philly. Great owner, great weather, good front office and coach, up and coming team with future draft picks (thanks Philly), a possible second max FA signee this summer and a favorable payroll structure for the future.

If Philly flames out in these playoffs, and Harris plays poorly and comes under criticism, that might push him back to the Clips, where the pressure to win isn't anything like in Philly. I so hope both Butler and Harris walk away from the Sixers.
Why would the Clippers sign Tobias Harris to a max deal, while the 76ers need to save face and overpay?

Lawrence Frank/Jerry West say no thanks to Harris defense or lack thereof...

sign Kawhi and let Doc coach these guys...
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why would the Clippers sign Tobias Harris to a max deal, while the 76ers need to save face and overpay?

Lawrence Frank/Jerry West say no thanks to Harris defense or lack thereof...

sign Kawhi and let Doc coach these guys...
Exactly. Harris is a real good player with a reputation as a hard worker and great teammate...…. but the reason the Clippers traded him this year was because they weren't going to overpay him this summer and earned a nice return of Shamet and a couple draft picks for their troubles. There is as close to a zero percent change Tobias ends up back with the Clippers.
 

JCizzle

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I think I heard this on the Simmons - Russilo pod, but the LAC make a lot of sense for AD now to pair with Leonard. SGA, Shamet, that Miami pick, and whatever else the Pelicans want easily beat what the LAL can offer.
 

Devizier

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I think I heard this on the Simmons - Russilo pod, but the LAC make a lot of sense for AD now to pair with Leonard. SGA, Shamet, that Miami pick, and whatever else the Pelicans want easily beat what the LAL can offer.
You'd have to be a huge believer in SGA and the Miami pick but it could certainly happen if Kyrie bolts.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think I heard this on the Simmons - Russilo pod, but the LAC make a lot of sense for AD now to pair with Leonard. SGA, Shamet, that Miami pick, and whatever else the Pelicans want easily beat what the LAL can offer.
Simmons pushing big LAC things should be taken with many grains of salt.
 

JCizzle

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Simmons pushing big LAC things should be taken with many grains of salt.
I agree and I think the clear better offers come from Boston and NYK if they get a top 2 pick. Boston depends on Kyrie and how well they do in the playoffs and NYK need luck and probably not getting the #1 (they might just keep Zion in that case). I haven't heard a better deal than that LAC in the next tier, I certainly like it better than the LAL offer - especially with the medical concerns that hit all those players. Maybe Toronto if they push in Siakam?
 

mcpickl

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Playing for the Clippers is a better situation than Philly. Great owner, great weather, good front office and coach, up and coming team with future draft picks (thanks Philly), a possible second max FA signee this summer and a favorable payroll structure for the future.

If Philly flames out in these playoffs, and Harris plays poorly and comes under criticism, that might push him back to the Clips, where the pressure to win isn't anything like in Philly. I so hope both Butler and Harris walk away from the Sixers.
Sure, but don't you think the Clippers probably talked to Tobias about what he's looking for in a contract this summer before they traded him away?

I'd be stunned if they didn't. I'm sure they heard the price he wanted, and that was a huge part of dealing him away in the first place. I'd also be stunned if Philly didn't know what Tobias' asking price was, and they were comfortable with it in making the trade. Would be horrendous asset management if they gave up Shamet, two firsts and two seconds (with filler each way)for a rental.
 

nighthob

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I always figured that the Clippers were adding draft picks so as to make a bid on Anthony Davis. Harris as a rental had no trade value in the Davis Sweepstakes, whereas that Miami first would be a good starting place. Harris is getting a max deal this summer, I think everyone knows that. Or should, anyway.
 

NomarsFool

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True. There's definitely a chance one of the Celtics first rounders is flipped forward. I hope they do, because I don't see room for three rookies from #14, #20, and #22.

But, I would guess the protections on those will be pretty good. Meaning, I wouldn't trade for the 14 pick this year with a future first unless it was protected to be no better than 14. Probably even worse than that, if I could. Nobody wants to be on the outside looking in at the double draft in 2021 or 2022.
 

DrewDawg

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Zach Lowe:
• The Mike Conley sweepstakes has to be back on with Memphis in position to draft Ja Morant after jumping from No. 8 to No. 2. Trading Conley would hurt the 2019-20 Grizzlies, which makes Boston an indirect winner on at least one lottery front. With Memphis keeping its pick this season, its obligation to Boston now rolls over to next season with looser protections: The Grizzlies owe their next first-rounder to Boston with top-six protection in 2020, and then (if necessary) with no protection at all in 2021.

If Memphis goes into full rebuild, that pick increases in value.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26743404/what-happened-wildest-nba-lottery-ever-seen
 

nighthob

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I don’t think they care where the ‘21 pick lands. They’re more concerned with adding a pick in the ‘20 pool. And it’s a pretty good one down through the late lottery. So if they can manage even 5 or 6 they should get a real running mate for Morant and J3.