The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

TripleOT

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Jul 4, 2007
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(Assuming that the picks aren't needed for an AD trade) If a team with a lot of needs like Chicago is at four or five, or Phoenix is at 3 or 4 with Morant picked at 2, wouldn't those teams be better off with the 9, 12, and 21 instead of adding just one player?
 

lovegtm

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In theory, most of the 1st round picks are headed to NO in an AD trade.

The "Draft" thread has a lot of discussion in regards to draftable PGs. Finding bench ball handlers isn't that difficult. Wannamaker probably deserved a longer look then he got this season IMO
I don’t buy that the Celtics will send lots of the picks if they send Tatum. They’ve been clearly positioning the negotiations to avoid that.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t buy that the Celtics will send lots of the picks if they send Tatum. They’ve been clearly positioning the negotiations to avoid that.
Agreed. If Tatum is going, I think Ainge will be able to hold back most of the picks. If Zion doesn’t go to NY, nobody is topping Tatum as a centerpiece.
 

amfox1

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(Assuming that the picks aren't needed for an AD trade) If a team with a lot of needs like Chicago is at four or five, or Phoenix is at 3 or 4 with Morant picked at 2, wouldn't those teams be better off with the 9, 12, and 21 instead of adding just one player?
Generally, no. In this draft, maybe, because of the lack of consensus after the top three.

Phoenix, no; they need a veteran point guard, not more draft picks. Chicago and Cleveland, maybe. I could see CLE trading 4/5 and 26 for 9, 13 and 22. However, in this draft I'm not sure there is a player worth making that trade for (assuming Zion, Ja and RJ are gone in the top three) from BOS' viewpoint.

I could definitely see a 19 and 22 trade to move into the mid-teens and consolidate picks
 

BigSoxFan

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Generally, no. In this draft, maybe, because of the lack of consensus after the top three.

Phoenix, no; they need a veteran point guard, not more draft picks. Chicago and Cleveland, maybe. I could see CLE trading 4/5 and 26 for 9, 13 and 22. However, in this draft I'm not sure there is a player worth making that trade for (assuming Zion, Ja and RJ are gone in the top three) from BOS' viewpoint.

I could definitely see a 19 and 22 trade to move into the mid-teens and consolidate picks
If we get Memphis pick, I would consider packaging MEM and another pick to move up for DeAndre Hunter, assuming he falls in that 5-8 range.
 

benhogan

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I don’t buy that the Celtics will send lots of the picks if they send Tatum. They’ve been clearly positioning the negotiations to avoid that.
What do the Celtics offer that NO will accept if AD is willing to sign a long term contract w/ the C's?
 

JakeRae

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I don’t think there’s a player in this draft after the top 3 that would be worth trading 9/10 and 12/13/14 for. It’s basically trading two lottery tickets for one because you like the design on the latter more. There isn’t enough of a talent difference in the 4-14 range this year for it to be worth consolidating. Just take the two shots.

This also isn’t the NFL. You can’t just roll present picks into future picks with ease because variation within the first round is so high. How do you trade a 10 pick for a future pick in a way that doesn’t either create a significant risk of getting a much worse pick in return or of receiving a much better one? I mean, you might get lucky and have someone offer a good deal if they are in love with a player, like the Sixers and Zhaire Smith last year, but it’s not really a deal you can just work the phones to generate and it most likely won’t exist.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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(Assuming that the picks aren't needed for an AD trade) If a team with a lot of needs like Chicago is at four or five, or Phoenix is at 3 or 4 with Morant picked at 2, wouldn't those teams be better off with the 9, 12, and 21 instead of adding just one player?
They'd really have to hate the top of the draft to consider this. Teams in the high lottery have to be hunting for stars, not bulk lower picks.

Would be tough for a GM to sell after a terrible season, and his teams fans dreaming of Zion, to say eh we're going to trade down from 4 for multiple lower picks. Be trading a dollar for two quarters and a dime.

I couldn't see that package getting above maybe #6, and that GM would have to just not particularly love anybody when they're on the clock. Most GMs fall in love with these prospects as the draft gets nearer.
 

mcpickl

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What do the Celtics offer that NO will accept if AD is willing to sign a long term contract w/ the C's?
If AD was willing to sign long term, assuming Kyrie is also signing ling term, I think I give New Orleans pretty much anything they want.

Even if you had to give both Tatum and Jaylen, plus salary filler and picks, it would hurt but tough to say no to an AD/Kyrie/Hayward/Horford/Smart core. I'd fight like hell to keep Jaylen but would submit if it was a deal breaker. Filling out the bench with young players and ring chasers likely wouldn't be too tough.

The snag is AD couldn't sign an extension right away. If they were able to match salaries in trade to allow AD to get his 15% trade kicker, they could extend him three additional years(if he opts in to his current 20-21 year)which would be his max salary, but they'd have to wait six months to do it. Better than having to wait it out until July 1st like Kyrie, but still have to gamble on trading for AD without having his signature on a contract.

Maybe they could split the difference and get him to opt in to his 20-21 season as part of the trade. Then at least they'd be guaranteed two years of his rights.
 

DrewDawg

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What do the Celtics offer that NO will accept if AD is willing to sign a long term contract w/ the C's?
Would AD tell the Pelicans that before the trade therefore extracting more assets from the team that AD wants to sign long-term with?
 

InstaFace

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Probably wouldn't tell the Pelicans that (or shouldn't, anyway), but he might tell potential counterparties that once they have permission to talk to him.
 

Ed Hillel

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Would AD tell the Pelicans that before the trade therefore extracting more assets from the team that AD wants to sign long-term with?
Would you believe him even if he said he wanted 100% to sign long term after next season?

NBA needs to fix this stupid rule preventing extensions based on future cap percentages.
 
Mar 1, 2009
518
Coin flip day...

Man, I’m more nervous for this than Game 1
Perhaps you could offer some congratulations to Memphis and Sacramento for losing the coin flips and landing in the 9th and 14th spots respectively.

Does the coin flip affect just the order of the pick in the event that the pick does not win the lottery, or does it also affect the amount of ping pong balls that the draft pick will have in the lottery drawing? So, does Sac(bos/phi), cha, and mia still have equal chances at winning the lottery slots or does the coin flip also impact that as well?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Does the coin flip affect just the order of the pick in the event that the pick does not win the lottery, or does it also affect the amount of ping pong balls that the draft pick will have in the lottery drawing? So, does Sac(bos/phi), cha, and mia still have equal chances at winning the lottery slots or does the coin flip also impact that as well?
From Tankathon:
Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner
 

Sam Ray Not

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I have fond feelings for coin flip day, since the Warriors won Harrison Barnes on a coin flip in 2012. Had it come up tails (or heads?) their pick would have dropped to #8 and conveyed to Utah; and when it conveyed the next season, the Warriors were good. Jazz fans are still pissed about it.

The Warriors also almost traded #30 and #35 that year to move up to the 20s and make sure they could draft Festus Ezeli, but decided instead to hold tight and hope he fell to them, which he did. And with the #35 they snagged some other dude named Draymond Green. So they ended up with Barnes, Green and Ezeli in that draft instead of just Ezeli.

Call it, friendo...

 

wilked

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So am I correct that in terms of 'give-a-shit' meter on today's tiebreakers, it goes:

1. Celts/Grizzlies - Having 7th worst position means pick highly likely to stay with Memphis, and 9th highly likely to convey to Boston, with 8th basically a coin flip. This one seems to have the biggest swing on outcomes
2. Cavs/Suns - Each has a 52% chance of being picked in the lottery, but if not picked it will of course be preferable picking 6th vs 7th in a worst case scenario
3. Pelicans / Mavs - Not a ton to gain or lose, but it is the difference between picking 7th/8th/9th, so moving a slot up is always a good thing
4. Celts/Heat/Hornets - Marginally better to be one or two spots higher once you hit the teens
5. Everyone else
 

DrewDawg

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No worries. I want everything updated so I can go play on tankathon.

While working.
 

chilidawg

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So am I correct that in terms of 'give-a-shit' meter on today's tiebreakers, it goes:

1. Celts/Grizzlies - Having 7th worst position means pick highly likely to stay with Memphis, and 9th highly likely to convey to Boston, with 8th basically a coin flip. This one seems to have the biggest swing on outcomes
2. Cavs/Suns - Each has a 52% chance of being picked in the lottery, but if not picked it will of course be preferable picking 6th vs 7th in a worst case scenario
3. Pelicans / Mavs - Not a ton to gain or lose, but it is the difference between picking 7th/8th/9th, so moving a slot up is always a good thing
4. Celts/Heat/Hornets - Marginally better to be one or two spots higher once you hit the teens
5. Everyone else
Celtics own pick will be 21 or 22 depending on a coin flip as well. Personally I give a shit more about that one than 2 or 3.
 

amfox1

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Coin flips happening now. Results are as follows:

25. POR
26. CLE (via HOU)

21. OKC
22. BOS (BOS also gets #51)

18. IND
19. SA
20. BOS (via LAC)

16. ORL
17. BRK

12. CHA
13. MIA
14. BOS (via SAC)

7. NO
8. BOS (via MEM)
9. ATL (via DAL)

2. CLE
3. PHX
 
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Cellar-Door

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FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCK

Edit- got 8th, not terrible