The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Jed Zeppelin

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Kings: 27-55
Pick owed: 2019 FRP Top 1 Protected (It goes to Philly if #1, with Boston getting Philly’s FRP instead)

Grizzlies: 22-60
Pick owed: 2019 FRP 1-8 protected, or 1-6 in ‘20, or unprotected in ‘21

Clippers: 40-42
Pick owed: FRP lotto protected in 2019 or 2020

Long live my reign of watching more bad basketball at ungodly West coast game hours than anyone else for the sake of knowing where our picks stand at any given moment.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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The offseason is early yet, but here are the major moves to this point:

Kings draft Marvin Bagley
Grizz draft Jaren Jackson Jr
Clippers draft SGA and Jerome Robinson, lose DeAndre to Dallas, and trade Austin Rivers to DC for Gortat

Memphis has no cap space, LA has some, and Sacramento has enough to make at least two or three big mistakes.
 

BigSoxFan

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Getting rid of Austin Rivers should be worth about 15 wins for the Clippers. I don’t think there’s much of a chance of that pick conveying this year.

Warriors
Rockets
Spurs
OKC
Jazz
Pelicans
Blazers
Wolves
Lakers

I count at least 9 teams in WC that should be better.
 

Ed Hillel

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That Clippers pick is not conveying unless they get Kawhi somehow. The question is will they be better or worse than Sacramento.

Memphis is gonna stink, but it might be close. What will be interesting is to see whether they’d be incentivized to tank or if they’d prefer to get that pick to convey now rather than later.

Sacramento is going to be exciting to watch. They are lagging behind a few competitors thus far in free agency, but they have plenty to spend and no incentive to tank. I think we’re looking bottom 4-6 territory, but we shall see!
 

snowmanny

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Having the 2, 9, 15 and 30 in next year's draft is going to create a roster crunch.
 

bowiac

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Sacramento is going to be exciting to watch. They are lagging behind a few competitors thus far in free agency, but they have plenty to spend and no incentive to tank. I think we’re looking bottom 4-6 territory, but we shall see!
I have not yet come up with a good way for my win projections to model tanking, but I don't see a lot of scenarios where pre-tanking the Kings aren't a bottom 3 team.
 

scottyno

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Technically the Cs have the better of Sac or Philly 2019 picks (assuming it's not #1). Obviously it's not likely not it's not impossible philly could strike out in free agency, Embiid or Simmons gets hurt, and they end up in the lottery and pick before Sacramento.
 

benhogan

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Technically the Cs have the better of Sac or Philly 2019 picks (assuming it's not #1). Obviously it's not likely not it's not impossible philly could strike out in free agency, Embiid or Simmons gets hurt, and they end up in the lottery and pick before Sacramento.
I'm loving this, another kick to groin of Phila.
free agency is not exactly working out for the Sixers this year:
George - gone
Lebron - gone

and Kawhi fully committed to LA next season

They can bring back Redick and Amir on expensive 1yr contracts again.
 

Ed Hillel

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I have not yet come up with a good way for my win projections to model tanking, but I don't see a lot of scenarios where pre-tanking the Kings aren't a bottom 3 team.
I agree. My 4-6 was factoring in tanking. Sac might be bad enough to unintentionally out-tank the tankers, though.
 

Pxer

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I'm loving this, another kick to groin of Phila.
free agency is not exactly working out for the Sixers this year:
George - gone
Lebron - gone

and Kawhi fully committed to LA next season

They can bring back Redick and Amir on expensive 1yr contracts again.
Beautiful as a Celtics fan. Is Klay the only big fish next year?
 

Manzivino

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Beautiful as a Celtics fan. Is Klay the only big fish next year?
Among max guys Durant, Kyrie, Kawhi, Butler, Horford all have player options; Butler’s probably the only realistic option there. Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris are next tier guys that would be interesting fits. They could also use the space to take back a bad contract along with a star which opens up a lot of options.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Kings may offer sheet Lavine. Bulls have plenty of room to match. I don’t think having or not having him would make much difference.
 

chilidawg

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Tankathon has the Kings pick at 4 and Memphis conveying at 10. That seems like a pretty ideal outcome. Romeo Langford and Jontay Porter are the way too early projected picks.
 

BigSoxFan

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Tankathon has the Kings pick at 4 and Memphis conveying at 10. That seems like a pretty ideal outcome. Romeo Langford and Jontay Porter are the way too early projected picks.
I would gladly sign up right now for that result. Summer of 2019 will be huge for the Clips pick. No chance of them making the playoffs this year.
 
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I'm loving this, another kick to groin of Phila.
free agency is not exactly working out for the Sixers this year:
George - gone
Lebron - gone

and Kawhi fully committed to LA next season

They can bring back Redick and Amir on expensive 1yr contracts again.
which they did (but less expensive than last year)
 

E5 Yaz

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HomeRunBaker

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lol wut? Sactown wanted McLemore back?

I'd assume it's a win for Memphis, just cos they typically make pretty smart moves whereas the Kangz ... do not.
They gave up Temple's expiring for a couple younger expirings who "maybe" could add something. Memphis saved $1m salary plus received whatever amount of cash the Kings included. I'm not a fan of any of those guys but given a choice I'd certainly take the two younger players hoping one of them makes a little leap.....we know Temple isn't going to.
 

amfox1

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So who does that help more, if any?
Have to think it makes it more likely that BOS will get the MEM pick next year. Gasol, Green, Anderson, Temple, Conley as starters and Parsons, JJJ, D.Brooks and Carter off the bench isn't terrible, if they can stay healthy.

As to SAC, not sure what they are doing here. They get a future 2nd rounder, $1mm in room and two players with expiring contracts unlikely to fit into their short- or long-term plans
 

Royal Reader

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Have to think it makes it more likely that BOS will get the MEM pick next year. Gasol, Green, Anderson, Temple, Conley as starters and Parsons, JJJ, D.Brooks and Carter off the bench isn't terrible, if they can stay healthy.
That might be a playoff team in the East. But LeBron going to the Lakers adds wins to the LAL and probably to the dregs of the East as well. What's the Grizz' ceiling? I can't see them finishing above any of last year's playoff teams nor the Lakers. There's only really the Suns and Kings I'd be confident they'll be better than. Nor do I think health is that likely. If I had to bet, I think it conveys in 2020 in the 7-10 range.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Have to think it makes it more likely that BOS will get the MEM pick next year. Gasol, Green, Anderson, Temple, Conley as starters and Parsons, JJJ, D.Brooks and Carter off the bench isn't terrible, if they can stay healthy.

As to SAC, not sure what they are doing here. They get a future 2nd rounder, $1mm in room and two players with expiring contracts unlikely to fit into their short- or long-term plans
How does Temple's expiring fit into their short or long term plans though? Didn't see they get a 2nd rounder too. If Sac got Memphis' 2nd for Temple that's a win in itself.

The other thing this does, which very well may turn out to be the motivator behind this deal, clears up just enough cap space to absorb Ryan Andersons contract. I'm not sure that would be a very Smart thing to do.
 
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amfox1

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That might be a playoff team in the East. But LeBron going to the Lakers adds wins to the LAL and probably to the dregs of the East as well. What's the Grizz' ceiling? I can't see them finishing above any of last year's playoff teams nor the Lakers. There's only really the Suns and Kings I'd be confident they'll be better than. Nor do I think health is that likely. If I had to bet, I think it conveys in 2020 in the 7-10 range.
The pick is only protected to 8. MEM doesn't have to make the playoffs for the pick to convey to BOS.
 

nighthob

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That might be a playoff team in the East. But LeBron going to the Lakers adds wins to the LAL and probably to the dregs of the East as well. What's the Grizz' ceiling? I can't see them finishing above any of last year's playoff teams nor the Lakers. There's only really the Suns and Kings I'd be confident they'll be better than. Nor do I think health is that likely. If I had to bet, I think it conveys in 2020 in the 7-10 range.
Gasol, J-3, an offseason of improvement from Dillon Brooks, and Conley returning are good for 32-36 wins and Boston nabbing Jontay Porter.
 

lovegtm

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How does Temple's expiring fit into their short or long term plans though? Didn't see they get a 2nd rounder too. If Sac got Memphis' 2nd for Temple that's a win in itself.

The other thing this does, which very well may turn out to be the motivator behind this deal, clears up just enough cap space to absorb Ryan Andersons contract. I'm not sure that would be a very Smart thing to do.
Depends on what Houston is willing to pay? Their ownership group seems to be making moves that are heavily luxury-tax influenced, and in the process damaging a very promising championship window. They might be more willing than most teams to give a valuable pick a few years out if Morey wants to get rid of his current financial handcuffs.

The problem for the Celtics is that Anderson makes the Kings better, but they're so bad in the west as is that I'm not concerned.
 

nighthob

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I doubt Anderson ever gets off the Kings’ bench given that all their young prospects are PFs and Cs. His value to the Kings is in future draft picks.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The Grizz dropped the opener at Indy by 27.

Kings putting up a fight early hosting Utah.

LAC just underway.
 

InstaFace

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we're rooting for the Clippers this year, right? Just to make the playoffs, though, so as to stay out of the lottery?
 

BigSoxFan

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we're rooting for the Clippers this year, right? Just to make the playoffs, though, so as to stay out of the lottery?
Yup. Likely not happening this year so more realistic option is rooting for them to get Kawhi this summer so that we can get their 2020 pick.
 

DrewDawg

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we're rooting for the Clippers this year, right? Just to make the playoffs, though, so as to stay out of the lottery?
EDIT: I was confusing my picks. This is the one that will become a second rounder if it doesn't convey next 2 drafts--do we want it this year or next? Does it matter?
 

BigSoxFan

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EDIT: I was confusing my picks. This is the one that will become a second rounder if it doesn't convey next 2 drafts--do we want it this year or next? Does it matter?
If you're lucky enough to get that pick in the next 2 years, you thank your lucky stars and smile. 2019 vs. 2020 doesn't matter to me. Last night, their starting lineup was:

Gortat
Gallinari
Harris
Bradley
Beverly

No chance that lineup 1) stays healthy and 2) makes playoffs even if they do.
 

scottyno

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EDIT: I was confusing my picks. This is the one that will become a second rounder if it doesn't convey next 2 drafts--do we want it this year or next? Does it matter?
In an ideal world next year is probably better, spread out the picks a bit, push the future contract for the pick one year down the line, but they're pretty bad right now so I think we root for it to convey now rather than potentially not at all.
 

amarshal2

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If you're lucky enough to get that pick in the next 2 years, you thank your lucky stars and smile. 2019 vs. 2020 doesn't matter to me. Last night, their starting lineup was:

Gortat
Gallinari
Harris
Bradley
Beverly

No chance that lineup 1) stays healthy and 2) makes playoffs even if they do.
That lineup is a top 3 draft pick lineup
 

HomeRunBaker

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That lineup is a top 3 draft pick lineup
I really disagree with this take. The Clippers have a 10-deep veteran rotation plus a promising rookie in Gilgeous-Alexander on a very good second unit with Harrell, Boban, Mbah a Moute, and Lou Williams. I've got them in the mid-30's. The injury concerns above may be overstated as well with Gortat and Tobias being as durable of an NBA player as they come. Even if Gallo, Avery, and Beverley miss their standard 20-30 games with their depth that shouldn't force them to ever play non-NBA guys in their regular rotation.
 

mauf

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Kings up 10 at OKC deep into 3rd.

Cmon guys.
They shot the lights out last night (55% overall, 46% from 3). Even a crappy team will show flashes like that.

The concern is that De’Aaron Fox seems to have taken a huge step forward in his 2nd season. The Kings aren’t a bottom-3 team if Fox sustains this level of play all season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They shot the lights out last night (55% overall, 46% from 3). Even a crappy team will show flashes like that.

The concern is that De’Aaron Fox seems to have taken a huge step forward in his 2nd season. The Kings aren’t a bottom-3 team if Fox sustains this level of play all season.
It's so much more than Fox's sophomore leap though. His growth is a boon to Hield and they added Bagley, a healthy Shumpert, Yogi, Bjelica, Giles is a year further removed from his ACL, and WSC continues his stready improvement. Unless they get hit with a rash of injuries this isn't a bottom-3 team. Worse than the Clippers, who I like, but much better than those bottom feeders.
 

the moops

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Fox still can't shoot. They also have given up 123, 149, and 120 points. Their defense is bad.

They are as close to a bottom 3 team as anyone, IMO
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Fox still can't shoot. They also have given up 123, 149, and 120 points. Their defense is bad.

They are as close to a bottom 3 team as anyone, IMO
Maybe the discrepancy is because it seems to me that no team in the NBA is doing a "Full Process" this year, except maybe Atlanta.

For example, ESPN has the bottom five teams right now as: ATL, SAC, CHI, CLE, and NYK.

SI has it as CHI, SAC, ORL, NYK, and CLE.

I don't think there's a clear-cut "favorite" for the "top" seed yet, well until CLE does something with Kevin Love.
 

BigSoxFan

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I feel pretty comfortable putting Sac in the bottom 5 or 6, which would be fine with me given how the lottery odds have smoothed out.