The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

amfox1

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Picks as of 4/12pm -

8 (MEM)* - 42.6% chance the pick conveys to BOS, otherwise, pick rolls over to next year (1-6 protected)
14 (SAC)* - 99% chance the pick conveys to BOS, otherwise, BOS gets pick #24
20 (LAC)
22 (BOS)
51 (BOS)
*subject to lottery results

MEM - Lottery odds of top 8/9th/10th or worse pick (% don't add to 100.0):

8. (60 combos of 1,000) 57.4%, 34.1%, 8.5%

SAC - Lottery odds of 1st/2nd-4th/12th-14th pick (% don't add to 100.0):
14. (10 combos of 1,000) 1.0%, 3.7%, 95.2%
 

Cellar-Door

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That's not the worst possible outcome, but it's quite bad.

Best scenario, nobody jumps Memphis, and the pick rolls over
Worst scenario- SAC jumps to 1, Memphis pick conveys, PHI gets 1 and we get a pick in the late 20s
 

Big John

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I think that after Zion and Ja this is a pretty flat draft. I'm not as high on Barrett as some. So I'm not sure that relative draft positions in the teens matter that much in terms of finding talent. Maybe they do for trade purposes, but maybe not. So long as the Kings pick doesn't turn out to be No. 1, I'm good.
 

Dollar

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Good call. I’m so disappointed by these stupid coin flips that I can’t function anymore.
Which would you prefer:
a) Kings jump up to #3, Grizzlies fall to #9
or
b) Grizzlies stay at #8 and doesn't convey, Kings stay at #14?

I don't know enough about the players who could be available at 3 and 9 to know for sure, but I guess I'd take option B.
 

Sprowl

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Which would you prefer:
a) Kings jump up to #3, Grizzlies fall to #9
or
b) Grizzlies stay at #8 and doesn't convey, Kings stay at #14?

I don't know enough about the players who could be available at 3 and 9 to know for sure, but I guess I'd take option B.
I'd take A in a heartbeat. A #3 pick in this draft is worth quite a lot, even if #9 is in the role-player division. Although there may be a drop-off after the first two picks, Ainge can probably find more than a few GMs with a high evaluation of Barrett, Reddish or Culver, and interested in trading up for #3.
 

BigSoxFan

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Which would you prefer:
a) Kings jump up to #3, Grizzlies fall to #9
or
b) Grizzlies stay at #8 and doesn't convey, Kings stay at #14?

I don't know enough about the players who could be available at 3 and 9 to know for sure, but I guess I'd take option B.
Any scenario with the Kings moving to 2-4 is jackpot for us. If that happens, I wouldn’t care about anything else. The odds of the Memphis pick landing in top 4 in 2021 are still quite low.
 

lovegtm

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I'd take A in a heartbeat. A #3 pick in this draft is worth quite a lot, even if #9 is in the role-player division.
Yeah, the chance of getting a #3 is the entire point of hoping the Memphis pick rolls over, so of course you take it now.

We got really, really spoiled by the Nets picks.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Later pick results are basically irrelevant. Everyone’s board is different after probably the top, err, 1 of this draft in particular. Lotto results for Memphis are the only thing that really matters.

In and of itself, the fact that potentially adding the 9th and 14th picks to this roster basically for free represents a worst case scenario means that things are pretty good overall. When they win the title this year we won’t care anyway.
 
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bosox79

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Any scenario with the Kings moving to 2-4 is jackpot for us. If that happens, I wouldn’t care about anything else. The odds of the Memphis pick landing in top 4 in 2021 are still quite low.
If the Kings pick lands 2-4, I'd almost prefer the Memphis pick to convey if it meant getting their intended trade target and keeping Tatum, Brown or both.

edit: I guess it doesn't matter. The Memphis pick would still have more value in a trade if it didn't convey.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I mean, imagine if we just kept the pick and drafted Fultz and before that couldn’t find a taker for terrible player Jeff Green.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is your fault for falling down on the job prior to the coin flips.
This is fair. Never leave things to chance. I still blame Wade for missing like 3 potential game winners the last week of the season. Seriously, F that guy.
 

InstaFace

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The thing to remember is that we have essentially the same odds of a big jump for the SAC pick whether we got 12, 13 or 14. YraY, if it doesn't jump, we'd rather a few positions up, but because we finished tied, they averaged the ping-pong balls among the 3 of us, so the odds of a lottery win are effectively the same.

The big one we had to not-lose was Memphis, and we didnt-lose it, but didn't win, either.

Overall I put this at like 40th percentile outcome. Below average, but not by much, and definitely not a disaster.
 

JCizzle

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The thing to remember is that we have essentially the same odds of a big jump for the SAC pick whether we got 12, 13 or 14. YraY, if it doesn't jump, we'd rather a few positions up, but because we finished tied, they averaged the ping-pong balls among the 3 of us, so the odds of a lottery win are effectively the same.

The big one we had to not-lose was Memphis, and we didnt-lose it, but didn't win, either.

Overall I put this at like 40th percentile outcome. Below average, but not by much, and definitely not a disaster.
Didn't know they averaged them, good to know!
 

NomarsFool

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Lottery night will be very interesting if when they start to read off the positions in reverse order if SAC isn't at 14. At that point we'll know they jumped, but wouldn't know if they jumped to #1 (very bad), or #2-4 (very good).
 

Montana Fan

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Yeah, the chance of getting a #3 is the entire point of hoping the Memphis pick rolls over, so of course you take it now.

We got really, really spoiled by the Nets picks.
We're really, really spoiled with the picks we've been following all year. Let's hope that we get to do it again for the next two years with the Memphis pick.
 

TripleOT

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So all four picks sat at a tie, and Boston came out with the worst slot in all four of them.

The draft lottery is May 14th.
 

DrewDawg

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So all four picks sat at a tie, and Boston came out with the worst slot in all four of them.

The draft lottery is May 14th.
I'm pretty sure they could've slid to 9th and held at 8th in one. They just didn't jump up to 7.
 

TripleOT

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I'm pretty sure they could've slid to 9th and held at 8th in one. They just didn't jump up to 7.
Thanks. With the threeway at 7,8,9, they got the 8. Three losses and a half out of four.

I want the pick to convey this season. I think Memphis will be better than 9th worst team in the league next season. However, it is a better trade chit as 6 protected next year and unprotected the year after.

Here's who was picked the last couple of years in the slots Boston now holds. Plenty of good players the last two drafts. Hopefully this draft won't be another 2016.

2018
9 Kevin Knox
14 Michael Porter Jr
20 Josh Okogie
22 Chandler Hutchinson

2017
9 Dennis Smith
14 Bam Adebayo
20 Harry Giles
22 Jarrett Allen

2016

9 Jakob Poetlt
14 Denzel Valentine
20 Caris LeVert
22 Malachi Richardson
 

HomeRunBaker

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I want the pick to convey this season. I think Memphis will be better than 9th worst team in the league next season.
What do you base this on? The Grizzlies have no space to add a FA even if one choose to sign there, there are whispers of releasing Avery Bradley for salary cap purposes, Valanciunas has a player option and will surely want a long extension, and their only trade chip is their best player in Mike Conley.

I'd have 9th worst at the top of the Grizzlies range but if they lose Bradley and Valanciunas then you're talking about a potential Conley trade their is still potential for this pick to roll over Unprotected in 2020 while Memphis is in full rebuild mode.

However, it is a better trade chit as 6 protected next year and unprotected the year after.
This is why we don't want the pick to convey. There is a decent chance the player selected in our slot never wears a Celtics uniform and the future pick with loosened protections carries much greater value in a trade.
 

TripleOT

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What do you base this on? The Grizzlies have no space to add a FA even if one choose to sign there, there are whispers of releasing Avery Bradley for salary cap purposes, Valanciunas has a player option and will surely want a long extension, and their only trade chip is their best player in Mike Conley.

I'd have 9th worst at the top of the Grizzlies range but if they lose Bradley and Valanciunas then you're talking about a potential Conley trade their is still potential for this pick to roll over Unprotected in 2020 while Memphis is in full rebuild mode.


This is why we don't want the pick to convey. There is a decent chance the player selected in our slot never wears a Celtics uniform and the future pick with loosened protections carries much greater value in a trade.
You win one bet, and all of a sudden you're the Grizz Whisperer?

I have no rational reason why I think they're not going to bottom out next year. I just have a feeling that if the pick doesn't convey, they'll draft a quality player to pair with JJJ, they will keep Conley, and they will manage to win 35 games next season.
 

BigSoxFan

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You win one bet, and all of a sudden you're the Grizz Whisperer?

I have no rational reason why I think they're not going to bottom out next year. I just have a feeling that if the pick doesn't convey, they'll draft a quality player to pair with JJJ, they will keep Conley, and they will manage to win 35 games next season.
On the one sense, you’re right. The NBA can be weird. Nobody saw SAC winning 39 games. Not many thought the LAC pick would convey, especially after trading Harris.

With that said, even if the Grizz don’t bottom out, then you’re basically left with a comparable pick a year from now. Wouldn’t you rather let it ride and keep the chip with the higher trade value and see if you can strike Tatum/Brown gold?

Like HRB, I think this will be a moot point anyways since I’d bet that the Pelicans own this pick in a couple months in whatever form it takes.
 

TripleOT

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On the one sense, you’re right. The NBA can be weird. Nobody saw SAC winning 39 games. Not many thought the LAC pick would convey, especially after trading Harris.

With that said, even if the Grizz don’t bottom out, then you’re basically left with a comparable pick a year from now. Wouldn’t you rather let it ride and keep the chip with the higher trade value and see if you can strike Tatum/Brown gold?

Like HRB, I think this will be a moot point anyways since I’d bet that the Pelicans own this pick in a couple months in whatever form it takes.

The pick rolling over has more value, for sure. The worst case scenario is the Pels move up and get a stud game changer this season, play young next year and get another star in the top six in the 2020 draft, and win a bunch of games in 2021 and the unprotected pick isn't in the lottery.

Of course, if Ainge moves the pick, that will be another team's problem.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You win one bet, and all of a sudden you're the Grizz Whisperer?

I have no rational reason why I think they're not going to bottom out next year. I just have a feeling that if the pick doesn't convey, they'll draft a quality player to pair with JJJ, they will keep Conley, and they will manage to win 35 games next season.
Haha!! :)

No, I've been optimistically charting this dream course of the Grizzlies demise since the day of the trade 4 years ago. There are reasons why the Grizzlies have been stating that they want the pick to convey sooner rather than later......these are many of the same reasons we want the pick NOT to convey this summer. Both organizations know the upside of the Grizzlies immediate future isn't that of the Kings as they don't have young high upside youth to take the leaps that occurred in Sacramento this year.
 

Captaincoop

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Not a great outcome on the coin flips, but given how Danny evaluates college talent, I'm not sure any of if matters. He's unlikely to have the same guy in mind at #14 that the teams sitting at 12 and 13 do.
 

lovegtm

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Not a great outcome on the coin flips, but given how Danny evaluates college talent, I'm not sure any of if matters. He's unlikely to have the same guy in mind at #14 that the teams sitting at 12 and 13 do.
All things considered, this turned out pretty well. Of course the Kings pick was a complete disaster relative to expectations, but this was always the trickiest year for the Memphis pick, since they had both Conley and Gasol for a lot of it.

The Clippers pick was really really lucky to convey at all, and the Celtics will be picking 5-6 slots higher than most expected.
 

DrewDawg

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The odds of losing those first 3 picks like that was 5.4%. Swell.
About the same chance we have for the SAC pick to jump into top 4....


EDIT: Based on my efforts on tankathon.com this pick conveys like 98.5% of the time.
 

BigSoxFan

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All things considered, this turned out pretty well. Of course the Kings pick was a complete disaster relative to expectations, but this was always the trickiest year for the Memphis pick, since they had both Conley and Gasol for a lot of it.

The Clippers pick was really really lucky to convey at all, and the Celtics will be picking 5-6 slots higher than most expected.
Agreed. The Clips luck conveying takes a good amount of the sting away for me. We were very lucky there that they overperformed in a year where the Lakers fell apart.

And Celtics were low 20s when we all thought they’d be high 20s. So those were 2 positive developments, at least from the picks perspective.

May 14th will tell us the rest of the story. I want the pick to roll into 2020/2021 but if we get “stuck” with the 9th pick in a draft full of solid but unspectacular guys, that’s not too bad. And if the gods smile on the SAC pick, it’s obviously a slam dunk as long as it’s not #1.