Damn, DK had 139.5 so I bought a few points. Thanks for the heads up. I know nothing about these teams so going in blind!Davidson/La Salle, o137.5, -105 only at FoxBet. Hammering this. Over +6% EV, have it around -119. This means for every $100 bet on this total, I'd expect an average of $6 in return. Hammer until they fix it!
And they did within 2 minutes, liberally. Gone to 139, -118/-118. Holy hell that's gross. The hold on that is miserable. Do not bet.
Good stuff though, HRB, fun read. I look at lot into offshore trends, Circa, any of these non-limited anybody with a pulse book outs as well. God do I love SpankOdds, even if I can't take advantage of offshores. I basically weight for injuries and a bunch of other factors, like coaches and such, but that varies per sport. Coaching weights matter most in college because it's expected typically the same coach YOY in the same school is likely to get the same type of recruit skill strength.
Another day in the life, right? Numbers are often gone in minutes if not seconds and the discipline necessary to pass is sometimes like having a screwdriver twisted into your side. Sometimes waiting we’ll get some buy back and the number shows up later but that’s generally not the case.Davidson/La Salle, o137.5, -105 only at FoxBet. Hammering this. Over +6% EV, have it around -119. This means for every $100 bet on this total, I'd expect an average of $6 in return. Hammer until they fix it!
And they did within 2 minutes, liberally. Gone to 139, -118/-118. Holy hell that's gross. The hold on that is miserable. Do not bet.
Your college basketball team floor/ceiling is specifically one of the core beliefs that Alan thought me years ago. There may be somewhat more variance to it today with the 3-pt shot, transfer protocols, etc but creating that baseline for a team was a game changer for me even though I only truly cap the games in the post-season.Good stuff though, HRB, fun read. I look at lot into offshore trends, Circa, any of these non-limited anybody with a pulse book outs as well. God do I love SpankOdds, even if I can't take advantage of offshores. I basically weight for injuries and a bunch of other factors, like coaches and such, but that varies per sport. Coaching weights matter most in college because it's expected typically the same coach YOY in the same school is likely to get the same type of recruit skill strength.
I still consider myself a poker player first as that has been my primary consistent form of income, and how I have filed, for the last 8 years. Honestly, I don’t know how anyone can sit in front of a screen for 12-15 hours a day every day…..or would want to have that lifestyle. Some do though but the smart ones have hired people to do that for them. There are levels to the game for sure.HRB, this was rambling in the best sense of the word, thanks! I'm fascinated by what the life and times of what being a professional sports gambler entail, many of them I wouldn't ask because they delve too deeply into personal information (I'm sure the weekend warriors among us would be horrified at the amounts you're putting on the line to make this a living for example). Any time you describe the behind the scenes details just know that you've got people enjoying the info.
Yes he was. Cool story how that book happened too. Joe Lupo was the Director of The Stardust sports book in Vegas when Chad reached out to him about wanting to get in touch with Alan. He couldn’t believe someone would want to write a book about him and thought it was a set up. Finally he agreed to open up for the book and to this day remains one of his proudest accomplishments. Nothing is more enjoyable to him than to sign a copy of the book and hand it to someone. He and Chad ended up having a major falling out which is too bad but also a part of Alan’s “high variance” personality.That was a fascinating post HRB. Will say that Alan Boston is one of the personalities featured in the wonderful book The Odds by Chad Millman.
- Armenian Greek Lurker out!
Thanks so much! I think in differing degrees it works for different sports. It's why the Jags on an alt win total, Eagles on a regular win total were prime for plucking. Will have more details about this this summer.Another day in the life, right? Numbers are often gone in minutes if not seconds and the discipline necessary to pass is sometimes like having a screwdriver twisted into your side. Sometimes waiting we’ll get some buy back and the number shows up later but that’s generally not the case.
Growing up in RI, I’d pick up my buddy and we’d drive to a Federal Hill and/or Silver Lake social club to bet games with cash. The guy would have some games with the lines written in pencil and hidden in the wall (gotta protect against the police shakedown raid lol). Whatever number they’d have written down at 2pm is what it would remain until tip off. We had little clue what we were doing but omg neither did they. Times have slightly changed lol. When we loved a game we’d have several people in the car taking turns going in then we’d hit the other club. They key was to do it when they had a card game going on or were busy so it didn’t raise eyebrows. So many characters in those clubs and the race track.
Your college basketball team floor/ceiling is specifically one of the core beliefs that Alan thought me years ago. There may be somewhat more variance to it today with the 3-pt shot, transfer protocols, etc but creating that baseline for a team was a game changer for me even though I only truly cap the games in the post-season.
Good stuff!
I most definitely have enough stories to write a book…..or a movie. I’ve shared several here over the years but so many I haven’t as they were gambling specific that I didn’t think would resonate with most. That’s changed now that sports betting is in the mainstream.Hornets/Suns u229.0, got this in at -110 at Wynn, have it closer to -130, so it's good to -125 elsewhere at this number specifically. Nice.
Thanks so much! I think in differing degrees it works for different sports. It's why the Jags on an alt win total, Eagles on a regular win total were prime for plucking. Will have more details about this this summer.
I'm only 30 so I love hearing stories about how it used to be given what technologies have changed as much. Especially when it's in both our old home state of RI, as I'm in NJ now, second most legal options to Nevada, if only we had Circa or anything remotely sharp. My god though, to see a description of the era no line changes between early afternoon and tipoff these days, that's...I mean, that's such a different and fascinating world, both in concealing but also no movement. Incredible.
I stayed away from this one due to the Jaylen news, but great call - Boston beat the opening 4.5, but lost to the closing 2.5. Great call on the DEN/NO under as well, wwwwaaaaayyyyy under. NBA was far more profitable that NCAA last night.Celtics have excelled on back end of B2B this year. This number keeps getting stretched out. Waiting on some Tatum confirmation but getting 4.5 here is awfully tasty.
D’oh. Brick city last night. I’ll stick with the pros!Damn, DK had 139.5 so I bought a few points. Thanks for the heads up. I know nothing about these teams so going in blind!
Same as Penn State, but that is more of a product of Rutger's elite defense. Watching that game taught me that Rutgers can be a dangerous team to play in late March if they make it.D’oh. Brick city last night. I’ll stick with the pros!
I saw 256.5 during a TO and passed. Grrrrrr.82 point first quarter is wild. Teams are 14-20 from 3 to start the game!
I’ll be back in the Gambling saddle this weekend. Already got hit with $1250 in bonuses to come back and bet. Amazing what a few weeks away will do…
Simmons was en fuego that quarter82 point first quarter is wild. Teams are 14-20 from 3 to start the game!
M-Rob was out for the Knicks in the first meeting as well. Celtics played small with tons of spacing and shot over 50% from three. The big thing for me was that this was during the part of the year when defense for the Knicks was optional and Thibs was letting them run up and down the floor. That hasn’t been the case over the last 6 weeks or so and their pace has dropped considerably. I would not place considerable weight on the Total based on that first matchup.Thoughts about tonight's total for BOS/NY? I thought the number was low and it has been bet down to 224.5. Guessing their last three games away from home being low totals have swayed some. The previous game against NY this year went for 251, but all bigs were out. Looks like Smart and Mitchell Robinson out tonight (for regulars), but Horford and TL available.
Taking this from the other thread. I took some Sixers to win the EC at an ungodly +825 the other day. Boston, Milwaukee and Brooklyn should not be worlds ahead of them in the market imo.Word. I've been saying all along that they worry me more than anyone. Harden and Embiid seem to have clicked. Both are legit alphas on their own, know how to get the star treatment from refs. The Philly rotation and role players complement them well. Harris seems to have finally put the pieces together into the above average player that everyone thought that he could be. They have random samplings of defensive guys, shooters, and a free shot creator in Maxey. It's a really well put-together team and frightens me a bit as a Celtics fan.
Are you arbing the spread, or taking a directional view?I'm all over the pointsbet +1050 on St. Francis ML over Fairleigh Dickinson. Only pointsbet. This is also broken as FUCK. Nobody has higher than +175. Arbing with -200 at BetRivers. Essentially a free -200 bet for me at 50%. Holy shit what a day.
I'm positive this gets refunded but if it doesn't, as Monopoly says, bank error in your favor.
Just the ML...in theory, since I'd have wanted the most ensured cash. Well, I couldn't get there in time. Something's up at PB though, they just had something similarly messed up for +2200 on St. Thomas - Minnesota's ML, way way off everyone else.Are you arbing the spread, or taking a directional view?
Sorry. I meant arbing the spread in moneyline (+1050 vs +140 or whatever BetRivers offered.Just the ML...in theory, since I'd have wanted the most ensured cash. Well, I couldn't get there in time. Something's up at PB though, they just had something similarly messed up for +2200 on St. Thomas - Minnesota's ML, way way off everyone else.
Love and Mitchell out. Down to 217.5I took the under in Cle/Hou 219.5
I'm usually down for some casual Clippers rooting, but don't think I can bet it...Anyone up for a Division Winner Future?
Pacific Division
Kings +140
Warriors +250
Suns +350
Clippers +650
Lakers +2000
Sacramento holds a 2.5 game lead over Clippers and 3.5 on the Warriors and Suns. They are currently the favorite as they begin an 11 of 14 game stretch on the road. if they hold on…..let’s just say I’ll ELOMOS! #rocco
So where’s the value? One could say with any of the next 3 teams with not much separating them. It appears that the Clippers “may” have gotten past the “I don’t give a shit” stretch of the regular season and are beginning to reel off some wins. That +650 is way off imo as they should be right there in the Warriors/Suns group to win this division. So who wants to be a Clipper fan with me the rest of the way?
Many years ago some books offered “Action Points” which was similar to Options Trading where unlike a traditional spread, the wins and losses would be determined by how many points you beat or didn’t beat the point spread. I’m not in a legal book state so if anyone has access to those let me know.3pm game today with the Nuggets on their 3rd and final game of the road trip.
Jokic and Murray hitting injury report a little while ago as Game Time Decision. Philly goes from 3.5 to 4.5 with total 232.5 to 230.5 on news. If I can get info before it hits and after I bet I’ll post it and hopefully I get here before the market moves.3pm game today with the Nuggets on their 3rd and final game of the road trip.
This is what I like……when my initial read on a team to start a trip is spot-on it’s a great sign moving forward.Sacramento begins a stretch of playing 11 of 14 games on the road tonight although it’s not as much of a travel burden as the ASG breaks up this stretch toward the end. Early in the year if you recall I was on them as a big undervalued team after starting 0-4(?) and cashed a bunch on them. Now that they are leading their division over the Warriors, Suns and Clippers they have become overvalued and we are going to take advantage of this over the next month in preparing to fade them quite a bit.
The first part of their trip is the east portion from a strength perspective but surely we’ll find a spot or two when a team is playing 7 roads games in 12 days (keep in mind only 5 cities with the new scheduling of B2B games). I should be keeping up with these numbers but last I checked the winner of the front end also won the back end over 65% of the time as of 3-4 weeks ago. Small sample but interesting as this is the debut season of this format.
I generally like playing ON a middling team on the first game of their trip as they are likely dogs and can be good value. That isn’t the case tonight however as they are -2 on the road against Minnesota who is playing very well.
* So we’ll be making a nominal play on the Wolves tonight +2