Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

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The Pistons are still stuck in Dallas after playing the Mavericks last night due to the weather and plane issues. They are scheduled to host the Wizards tonight. Wild.
Took this from other thread as it has applications here.

Before everyone logs on and begins clicking Wizards for max bet you may want to consider some alternative options……such as the Alt Line. These type setups often result in a highly volatile result. Think Sunday noon game or a Ewing game x3.

Assuming this game goes look at some alternative spreads. I am playing Detroit -4 (+315) and Washington -16 (+305) for a little bit. Disclaimer: I had some Wizards -5.5 already locked in on the overnight. This news has moved current number to 6.5

Edit: Aside from Wizards, I also played Under 226.5 Celts/Nets, Spurs +7.5, Orlando +9, & Under 230.5 Orl/Phil on the overnights each for relatively small amounts.
 

zak1013

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Thanks as always. The volatility point you mentioned for DET/WAS scares me away regardless.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thanks as always. The volatility point you mentioned for DET/WAS scares me away regardless.
I should have added the injury caveat to the Boston game which I haven’t been around to look at yet. I’ll update later today.
 

zak1013

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DK is offering a fun promo this week where if you bet on any ML, you’ll early win the bet if your team goes up by 10+ at any point during the game (you only get to use the promo once per night). Seems like a good way to take a flier on some bigger dogs who are hot starting teams. Cashed in last night with the Rockets on HRB’s earlier comments about them fitting this mold. Not sure I see any good angles tonight (maybe Memphis but they‘re on the second night of a B2B so seems dicey?) but welcome ideas from the group.
 

HomeRunBaker

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DK is offering a fun promo this week where if you bet on any ML, you’ll early win the bet if your team goes up by 10+ at any point during the game (you only get to use the promo once per night). Seems like a good way to take a flier on some bigger dogs who are hot starting teams. Cashed in last night with the Rockets on HRB’s earlier comments about them fitting this mold. Not sure I see any good angles tonight (maybe Memphis but they‘re on the second night of a B2B so seems dicey?) but welcome ideas from the group.
Very nice!! If I had to pick a game from tonight slate it would be the enigmatic Clippers against the Bucks who sometimes get off to really slow starts. Also the chance Giannis sits is out there.
 

JM3

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Lol me. Was trying to decide whether to bet the Knicks +1.5 or the ML, got distracted by work & bet neither.

Is there an easy rule of thumb for which is better odds in those spots? I guess it's just determining the odds of a 1 point win.
 

zak1013

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not sure how long it's going to last but I'm thinking Phoenix might be a decent spot tonight. Could definitely see the C's coming out a bit slow after the Brooklyn blowout and a night off.
 

HomeRunBaker

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not sure how long it's going to last but I'm thinking Phoenix might be a decent spot tonight. Could definitely see the C's coming out a bit slow after the Brooklyn blowout and a night off.
Wouldn’t try talk you off it. This Suns version without Booker has bounced back well off their multiple 30-pt losses this year….as most NBA teams do. This spot has long stood the rest of time in this league. I haven’t checked to see who is available but overnight total was 227.5 it’s now 221.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Probably should have been digging into the “Double Result” market earlier as we’ve discussed teams that are fast and slow starters. Taking a little “pizza money” (I guess that’s the hot phrase now) on Rockets/Raptors at +450. To translate…..this means Houston must Win the 1H (tie loses) and the Raptors must win the game. Also, not an entire pizza but like maybe a pepperoni on Tie/Raptors at +1600.

Edit: Non-NBA…..added more St. Mary’s to Make Final Four at +1400 (had earlier for peanuts at, I believe, +2700). This is like the perfect college team complete with a couple guards who are great 3-pt shooters, decent size and role players. 4 losses by a total of 15 pts, including 53-48 on the road to Houston. One of the best teams not talked about and so poised to make a deep March run.

They host Gonzaga tomorrow night where they will be a maybe a 4-5 point favorite and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them win comfortably by double digits. I don’t have access to any WCC Championship odds but I’d imagine if you can find it there is also value there on the Gaels with Gonzaga being such a public team who is a flawed team this season.

Edit2: I know there was a female poster who is a St. Mary’s alum and passionate about that team and players back in the Patty Mills days but don’t recall her name or I’d have tagged her.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Took a little Lakers to win WC at +1600 just now while it’s still up. If Kyrie gets there this will be ridiculous value as the line will move to around +450 or so.

Edit: Same site dropped it to 1200 and another to 900 already. Took little more at 1200 FOMO.
 

JM3

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I put a tiny wager on the Lakers to win the Pacific at +2000 & didn't do +1000 to win the West. Prob dumb, but oh well.
 

zak1013

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If you have access to Caesars Sportsbook, they still have LAL to win the West at +1500.
 

BigSoxFan

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not sure how long it's going to last but I'm thinking Phoenix might be a decent spot tonight. Could definitely see the C's coming out a bit slow after the Brooklyn blowout and a night off.
Good call. I did this one for small dollars. Now go Celtics.
 

zak1013

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Thoughts on a ML play for tonight (assuming this thing is still running)? Tempted by Dallas (starting an 8 day road trip, GS coming home after 3 games in 5 days on the road) but all the injuries on both sides make me nervous.
 

BigSoxFan

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Thoughts on a ML play for tonight (assuming this thing is still running)? Tempted by Dallas (starting an 8 day road trip, GS coming home after 3 games in 5 days on the road) but all the injuries on both sides make me nervous.
It’s back. I was looking at Pistons at home +155 in potential letdown game for Suns. But none really jump out at me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ok guys stuff getting real here with the Lakers. Westbrook hits injury report as Questionable this morning and LeBron tweeting out eyeballs last night. While the WC +1600 is long gone from when I posted it yesterday (I see +700 this morning) there is another market that hasn’t yet been touched yet…..the 6th Man of the Year.

If/When Russ is traded he’s almost certainly going to be starting as the acquiring team (esp. Brooklyn) isn’t going to want to start things off on the wrong foot out of the gate. So while Russ will still qualify for the Award having come off the bench for more games than he started……will the voters, who are notoriously addicted to recency bias, even consider him for the Award? I don’t feel that most would.

Many books took this market down but I found a couple posted this morning. I see:

Russ -135 (LOL)
Brogdon +150
Maxey +500
Powell +550

We know about Brogdon but we also know about his injury history. He would likely be the favorite real soon so that price could end up being a steal however if he misses time down the stretch there is value available in the next tier.

Maxey wouldn’t be eligible today with 22 starts while coming off the bench for 10 even though his current role is as 6th man. He could gain a ton of momentum down the stretch espeically if the Sixers overtake Boston for the Atlantic.

Powell (+550) in LA is quietly getting real comfortable in his role putting up 20ppg over the last 5 weeks. With continued Load Mgmt for Kawhi/PG his usage will continue to be high and he’s likely to remain in his bench role.

Others to keep eye on, or even throw pepperoni money on, include Mathurin (+2500), Poole (+8000) and Wood (+20000).

I’m beginning to leverage these today and in the coming days. I’ll profit some with Brogdon but the Maxey/Powell tier is going to be where I’m really looking for value.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It’s back. I was looking at Pistons at home +155 in potential letdown game for Suns. But none really jump out at me.
Solid spot for sure. Can’t believe Suns were getting 10 in that bounce back spot last night that they have excelled in. Goes to show that there is always value in this freakin crazy league.
 

RG33

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Are the Nets going to be able to score the ball with no KI, KD, or Simmons today? Wizards are not good and Beal is questionable, but they have won 4 of 5 and are getting +1 against the banged up Nets at home whose 3 best offensive players are sitting? It feels like this line should be Wizards -3 or -4 to me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Are the Nets going to be able to score the ball with no KI, KD, or Simmons today? Wizards are not good and Beal is questionable, but they have won 4 of 5 and are getting +1 against the banged up Nets at home whose 3 best offensive players are sitting? It feels like this line should be Wizards -3 or -4 to me.
Yes agreed except the part about the Wizards being bad…..they really aren’t especially with Beal healthy. I played Washington and the Under at 224.5 I like it all the way down to 219. Also played Denver pretty good tonight at -7 and the Lakers small.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Coming back off a nice Nuggets win by fading them today in Minnesota. Took Wolves -2/2.5 good and Knicks +4 small.
 

RG33

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Yes agreed except the part about the Wizards being bad…..they really aren’t especially with Beal healthy. I played Washington and the Under at 224.5 I like it all the way down to 219. Also played Denver pretty good tonight at -7 and the Lakers small.
Wow. 23 point lead blown and people named Ed Sumner and Cam Thomas combined for 73 points for the Nets (and Kuzma gets hurt and plays 11 min).

Kick in balls game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wow. 23 point lead blown and people named Ed Sumner and Cam Thomas combined for 73 points for the Nets (and Kuzma gets hurt and plays 11 min).

Kick in balls game.
Brutal. First Beal doesn’t go then Kuzma is out and Hachimura was traded so you lose your offense and defensive versatility. The end result is Cory Freakin Kispert having to be on the floor as much as possible…..good luck with that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Coming back off a nice Nuggets win by fading them today in Minnesota. Took Wolves -2/2.5 good and Knicks +4 small.
Pretty nuts that books would post this game with Jokic/MJP on B2B when both were game time decisions the night before. Like wtf do you expect to happen? Took back Nuggets +7.5 for 50% of play.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone up for a Division Winner Future?

Pacific Division
Kings +140
Warriors +250
Suns +350
Clippers +650
Lakers +2000

Sacramento holds a 2.5 game lead over Clippers and 3.5 on the Warriors and Suns. They are currently the favorite as they begin an 11 of 14 game stretch on the road. if they hold on…..let’s just say I’ll ELOMOS! #rocco

So where’s the value? One could say with any of the next 3 teams with not much separating them. It appears that the Clippers “may” have gotten past the “I don’t give a shit” stretch of the regular season and are beginning to reel off some wins. That +650 is way off imo as they should be right there in the Warriors/Suns group to win this division. So who wants to be a Clipper fan with me the rest of the way?
Updating these Pacific Odds as of tonight at one book.

Kings +200 (LOL at them still favorites)
Clippers +225 (I still see value here & may add)
Suns +250 (biggest threat to Clips imo)
Warriors +500 (losing Curry hurts but schedule appears easy while he’s out)
Lakers +2000

My only concern in adding more Clippers is having 4 B2B games that Kawhi won’t play and since he’s returned the Clips are 1-6 without him with the only win being against the Pistons. I probably will add some volume to bring down my effective price but even punting those 4 games this team is going to have the Pacific lead as early as this coming week and then the Kings have their brutal road trip coming up after that. Curry is out and Kyrie isn’t coming to help LeBron. I only see the Suns as a threat.
 

Marceline

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Updating these Pacific Odds as of tonight at one book.

Kings +200 (LOL at them still favorites)
Clippers +225 (I still see value here & may add)
Suns +250 (biggest threat to Clips imo)
Warriors +500 (losing Curry hurts but schedule appears easy while he’s out)
Lakers +2000

My only concern in adding more Clippers is having 4 B2B games that Kawhi won’t play and since he’s returned the Clips are 1-6 without him with the only win being against the Pistons. I probably will add some volume to bring down my effective price but even punting those 4 games this team is going to have the Pacific lead as early as this coming week and then the Kings have their brutal road trip coming up after that. Curry is out and Kyrie isn’t coming to help LeBron. I only see the Suns as a threat.
BetOnline has the following as of this morning:

Clippers +185
Suns +225
Kings +250
Warriors +700
 

Marceline

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Not familiar with this book but definitely adding them to my list, thanks!

Right now I have BetOnline and BookMaker and neither had as good odds as you posted. Also bet105 but their limits are so stupidly low that I don't even bother with them most of the time.
 

zak1013

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Same, and I’ve been considering open up a Fanduel account too with their Super Bowl promo as I’ve noticed better prices there on occasion as well.
 

BigSoxFan

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Same, and I’ve been considering open up a Fanduel account too with their Super Bowl promo as I’ve noticed better prices there on occasion as well.
One thing I did was move money over from various accounts to get their promos. So, I got a bunch of free/risk free bets and used that to seed the accounts. And then moved the money back over to my preferred options (DK/MGM). Caesar’s kind of sucks so don’t have much there. FanDuel is just ok. MGM offers a ton of free bets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Out of curiosity, and maybe I should make this a poll, but for those in legal states do you still use Bruno from the barber shop or are using pure 100% legal accounts? With my options dwindling in FL (not yet legal due to pending litigation) I’m strongly considering setting up accounts in another state where I can either travel to them occasionally or set up a partnership.
 

BigSoxFan

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Out of curiosity, and maybe I should make this a poll, but for those in legal states do you still use Bruno from the barber shop or are using pure 100% legal accounts? With my options dwindling in FL (not yet legal due to pending litigation) I’m strongly considering setting up accounts in another state where I can either travel to them occasionally or set up a partnership.
I've never used a bookie. Only legal sites. So much easier with depositing and withdrawals. I'm amazed that sportsbetting isn't ubiquitous at this point. Imagine the cash that states like FL or TX would generate. Feel like it's only a matter of time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I've never used a bookie. Only legal sites. So much easier with depositing and withdrawals. I'm amazed that sportsbetting isn't ubiquitous at this point. Imagine the cash that states like FL or TX would generate. Feel like it's only a matter of time.
It’s very complex here and DeSantis tried to bully a deal through which lasted a month before a lawsuit and judges decision put a temporary end to it.

The short……I deleted my description and simply added a link which sums it up.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/12/14/sports-betting-desantis-gambling-federal-seminole-tribe/
 

zak1013

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I used an offshore site sporadically a number of years ago but the experience was always pretty lousy. Once NY legalized I went 100% thru that channel.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My thoughts on Doncic/Kyrie and the Mavs moving forward. I think it’s fair to expect and/or prepare for a volatile run in the coming weeks and months. Like anything else the market will dictate whether the Mavs are overvalued or undervalued so these opening numbers and associated line movements will be interesting indeed.

Initially, I will look to fade the Mavs as I feel they will likely be overvalued in the market and it has nothing to do with Kyrie’s historical effects on a franchise that makes good reading.

I’ve always repeated how basketball, and espeically NBA basketball, is a game of instinctual decisions and not one where you have time to think/process prior to making in-game decisions. The Mavs are in the middle of a road trip so there will be games, flying, games, flying, etc etc with no time for regular practice (maybe the day between games in Sacramento). I project the introduction of Kyrie to Doncic and to new teammates to create more “thinking” on the court and less “instinctual activity” due to players uncertainty in how to balance two of the best iso-scoring guards to ever play this game.

So let’s see when this trade is finalized by the league or if other players involved are moved to make it a multi-team deal that would delay Kyrie’s arrival and wait for numbers to come out. Should be able to get ahead of moves here.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Out of curiosity, and maybe I should make this a poll, but for those in legal states do you still use Bruno from the barber shop or are using pure 100% legal accounts? With my options dwindling in FL (not yet legal due to pending litigation) I’m strongly considering setting up accounts in another state where I can either travel to them occasionally or set up a partnership.
In my experience, Bruno from the Barber Shop doesn't exist much anymore. I guess they probably do, but my Bruno is from the country club, and has a website that rivals most of the "legal" accounts. Cash is paid on Sunday/Monday each week, and given everyone's proximity and presence at the club on regular basis, it's really easy. Added benefit is that nothing is tied to accounts the wives can see.

From what I gather, just about every club has a guy at this point and they fucking kill it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In my experience, Bruno from the Barber Shop doesn't exist much anymore. I guess they probably do, but my Bruno is from the country club, and has a website that rivals most of the "legal" accounts. Cash is paid on Sunday/Monday each week, and given everyone's proximity and presence at the club on regular basis, it's really easy. Added benefit is that nothing is tied to accounts the wives can see.

From what I gather, just about every club has a guy at this point and they fucking kill it.
The funny thing (or not so funny in my case) is that the guy who stiffed me is the country club guy which shocked the crap out of me……my two Boston locals I deal with, and refer friends to (which allows me to keep my personal accts open), are the blue collar Bruno’s and my Florida ones are ex-NY street hustlers. Come to find later when I dug into country club guy more he was arrested a few years ago for stealing from a country club locker. He came referred to me from a golfer here but lesson learned on due diligence for everyone.

Yes, they all have the similar looking PayPerHead professional style accounts which I love but the downside is that the agent can decide what to open/close/limit. I have an offshore (BOL) loaded too that I use for live betting and MMA regionals/props but my best numbers for the everyday stuff typically comes from Bruno and the boys.

I should probably ask @DennyDoyle'sBoil which states have the most/best options before I begin my search if you have a moment.
 

zak1013

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The funny thing (or not so funny in my case) is that the guy who stiffed me is the country club guy which shocked the crap out of me……my two Boston locals I deal with, and refer friends to (which allows me to keep my personal accts open), are the blue collar Bruno’s and my Florida ones are ex-NY street hustlers. Come to find later when I dug into country club guy more he was arrested a few years ago for stealing from a country club locker. He came referred to me from a golfer here but lesson learned on due diligence for everyone.

Yes, they all have the similar looking PayPerHead professional style accounts which I love but the downside is that the agent can decide what to open/close/limit. I have an offshore (BOL) loaded too that I use for live betting and MMA regionals/props but my best numbers for the everyday stuff typically comes from Bruno and the boys.
HRB you mentioned earlier you had some ways you approach not getting limited with these folks…would think that’s a real issue if you get tagged regularly hitting stale lines, right?