Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
31,069
Spurs W by 13
Orlando W by 4
@ Knicks W by 19
@ Knicks L by 7
@ Nets W by 22
@ Cle W by 8
IND L by 9
@ Ind L by 12
@ Spurs W 4
@ Hou L by 4

Next up: Jazz, Bos, GS, Kings (back-back) all at home before @ Cle, @ Det, @ Det
After finding themselves with that big run they seem to be lost again and going through the motions. I wasn't a fan of this team prior to the season and wouldn't be surprised if we already saw the best of the Bucks in December.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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I smashed the Celts in 2nd half. Then went to Prime 47 and sat between TJ Mcconnell, Buddy Hield, and Jalen Duren and their respective families. Buddy Hield grabbed me, gave me the finger (nicely) and said “we’ll see you Monday night baby”.

I’m doubling down.
classic behavior of someone that jacks up 3s with 0.1 left in games while up 10…. (Still mad)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Of the 3 early games today the one that stands out like Gheorghe Muresan is the 1pm tip with the Spurs in Cleveland. There has been a clear pattern, especially of late, where the Spurs only post a big number against the leagues bottom half of defensive teams. When they face a Top-10 defense we've seen them struggle to hit 100. They have scored 110+ against the Bucks, Blazers, Jazz and Mavs....but when matched up with the Celtics, Rockets, Clippers, Grizzlies, etc if they crack 100 it is by a bucket or two. I know this sound oversimplified but sometimes that is a real good thing.

Cleveland fits the mold of a Top-10 defensive team that plays at a Bottom-10 Pace. I don't know how this number is 233.5 (actually opened higher on overnight) with the Spurs stuck in a halfcourt game where they struggle to execute and a Cavs team that isn't explosive and have hit 120 primarily against the Hawks, Wiz, and Jazz.

U233.5 full game
U116 1H

This is one of those smash spots so yes, Under TT's are probably good too if you lean that way also but no real need to get cute.

Edit: Hurry, this number is already on the move.
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
31,069
231 on DK. That was quick. I did an alternate total for less return.
231 pretty much across the board. It's still 9 points from my number so still good here if anyone is just seeing this. Who knows how low it goes though. It still boggles my mind how such a large betting market such as the NBA can open so far from where the market has pushed this.
 

sully5584

New Member
Dec 31, 2023
11
Noticed something interesting when betting the early games on FanDuel. The Nets game 1H seems pretty high comparatively.

Spurs/cavs: 1H O/U at 114.5 total game at 232.5
Nets/Blazers: 1H O/U at 115.5 total game at 226
pelicans/kings: 1H O/U at 115 total game at 235.5

The Memphis game later in the day has a similar total game line but us down at 112 for 1H. Just wonder if anyone knows why or if this is pretty normal.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
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Nov 28, 2005
7,318
CA
Joe says load up on the C’s tomorrow night. (I’m not creepy at all)76212
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
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lovegtm

Member
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Apr 30, 2013
13,356
Embiid leads the MVP race odds

BUT the Games Played clause may start impacting that. He's missed 8 games already and is 9 away from getting DQ'd

The 76ers have 8 back-to-backs left to be played. There are ways to skirt it but if Joel gets anything minor that knocks him out for 10-14 days it will get dicey.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38386013/how-nba-new-rules-resting-stars-work

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/
Scary stuff for Joel. We know he won't make it past the 2nd round, so the MVP is his NBA Finals.

Would be sad for his feelings if he missed out on those awards: 82-Game Players Are People Too.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
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Scary stuff for Joel. We know he won't make it past the 2nd round, so the MVP is his NBA Finals.

Would be sad for his feelings if he missed out on those awards: 82-Game Players Are People Too.
Very funny

My favorite "injury" forward gamble is ROTY. Chet & Wemby are far ahead of the competition, but I liked the idea of betting Jaquez at +4000. Pods/B Miller also could apply.
Obviously, the odds of both going down with injury & playing under 50 games are very, very low (less than .25% I guess). BUT they do find themselves under the rim quite often with athletic WINGS (think Nesmith) trying to dunk on their heads. I constantly hold my breath with our Unicorn (KP). Plus the Spurs will be ultra-conservative with Wemby.

1/3 into the season & that trade looks like a zero (then again I've wasted hundreds/thousands on dumber activities)

Note: there is no Games Played clause for ROTY.
Vince Carter and Patrick Ewing are tied for the fewest games by a Rookie of the Year in a season, with 50 games.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/rookie-of-the-year/
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Any thoughts on a halftime play? Line back up to 236.5.
Had already added a little live after 1Q so nothing else at the half. LeVert has 9 pts in the final :02 of the first and third quarters. We are getting worst of "make or miss" today but the pace is so perfect we are still a couple points ahead early 4Q.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Sometimes things aren't meant to be. Keldon misses that 3 w a min left and the game gets dribbled out for easy cover. Instead the upcoming foul fest is going to make this fly over. Oh well.
 

Red Averages

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Easy win. :)

Only the Spurs can mess up fouling, but also get a block, and throw it out of bounds unforced.
 

sully5584

New Member
Dec 31, 2023
11
What a wild ending, thought the under was dead! Big win since I added more at U 244.5 in the second quarter thanks to picking up on things from you guys.

Onto the Nets/Blazers!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
31,069
What a wild ending, thought the under was dead! Big win since I added more at U 244.5 in the second quarter thanks to picking up on things from you guys.

Onto the Nets/Blazers!
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.

Kudos to you, many don't want to learn how to fish.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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More brutal 3-pt variance. Seems to be the thing today. Pels/Kings w 3 threes in final min of 1H and 17 threes in the 1H for the L.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Pels up 34 on Kings mid-3Q in the latters final game of their home stand. Assuming the slaughter continues the Pistons should be the recipient of an inspired effort by Sacramento to kick off the Kings 5 city in 8 nights road trip.

Two angles coming together here....good team on bounce back off blowout and their first game of road trip. Thinking this number is Kings -6.5 which is the half tick ahead of that key 7.
 

sully5584

New Member
Dec 31, 2023
11
Wow. I thought we might lose that one right at the end. Blowout layup line 4ths are terrifying with unders.
 

Red Averages

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Totally agree with HRB (via Twitter) on Eagles -2.5 for NFL before that moves to -3 or -4 in the coming days.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Wow. I thought we might lose that one right at the end. Blowout layup line 4ths are terrifying with unders.
Just an incredible day of NBA stupidity. 69 4Q pts to try and beat us.....and very easily could have. I hate 4Q blowouts like this it's like both sides of deep bench guys have an unwritten rule to not help or rotate and to make it a layup line/open 3's for them to get some numbers.
 

sully5584

New Member
Dec 31, 2023
11
Just an incredible day of NBA stupidity. 69 4Q pts to try and beat us.....and very easily could have. I hate 4Q blowouts like this it's like both sides of deep bench guys have an unwritten rule to not help or rotate and to make it a layup line/open 3's for them to get some numbers.
Completely agree. Also interesting that each game won one and lost one for the 1H and total game. Real good advice to bet the games with both.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Also I’m on the under tonight (Bills/Miami) at 48.5
I got 48 and love that no PI call when Knox was tackled twice before the ball arrived.
Completely agree. Also interesting that each game won one and lost one for the 1H and total game. Real good advice to bet the games with both.
It's a tool to lower variance by splitting the wager. The early start 1H also perform very well. Actually a tad better than full game.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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KC line already up to 3.5. Got in at 3.
I took the under when it posted at 47.5, down to 43 this morning, which I was a bit surprised at.

Also have a few teaser combos featuring Eagles +4, Cle +4.5, Dal -0.5, Rams +10, Bills -2, Kc/mia under 54, Hou/Cle under 51. In combos of 3 team, 5 and 6. I like these for adding a bit of leverage that builds through the weekend which can lead to some awesome middles/hedging situations. If you can get some CLV on top of the teaser, it creates a huge window. That KC/Mia teased line is now 11 points above the current price. Rams are now 7 points, Cle 7 points
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Who/what does everyone like tonight? My head leans Michigan but my heart wants Huskies. Penix INT feels like a good prop. Mich will get on him.
 

zak1013

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Jul 14, 2005
256
Thoughts on Celts/Pacers Under tonight? Looks like it’s currently 243.5/244. Repeat of Saturday night’s matchup, which as we’ve discussed should generally trend to the under….but not sure how to factor in potential Tatum/KP absence.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
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I've had two friends reach out over past week saying they received a $5k bonus offer w 100% match from DK asking me how to best utilize. If anyone received similar specifically from DK, Golden Nugget or Betway in NJ shoot me a PM.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
31,069
Pels up 34 on Kings mid-3Q in the latters final game of their home stand. Assuming the slaughter continues the Pistons should be the recipient of an inspired effort by Sacramento to kick off the Kings 5 city in 8 nights road trip.

Two angles coming together here....good team on bounce back off blowout and their first game of road trip. Thinking this number is Kings -6.5 which is the half tick ahead of that key 7.
Keep eye on this opener you FD guys.

Another game tonight with multiple angles is Houston +4, starting first game of road trip, in Miami on their first game back from road trip. My only hesitation to not make this more than a standard play is the South Beach Virus.
 

crackerjack9

Member
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Jun 14, 2023
53
Keep eye on this opener you FD guys.

Another game tonight with multiple angles is Houston +4, starting first game of road trip, in Miami on their first game back from road trip. My only hesitation to not make this more than a standard play is the South Beach Virus.
FD has posted this one at Sac -10.5. Still worth a play?
 

Red Averages

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Hopefully Halliburton isn’t out too long. Hate to see injuries like that.

I did play the under aggressively (a HRB smash) when he went down at 254, 253 and 252.

edit - not looking great given the pace to start the 2nd half. Terrible read on the future pace.
edit 2 - 77 point 3rd quarter the killer there. Onto the next one.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
31,069
Hopefully Halliburton isn’t out too long. Hate to see injuries like that.

I did play the under aggressively (a HRB smash) when he went down at 254, 253 and 252.

edit - not looking great given the pace to start the 2nd half. Terrible read on the future pace.
edit 2 - 77 point 3rd quarter the killer there. Onto the next one.
I played Celtics ML +330 at the TO with 6:30 to go and down 5. Give me that price every day.
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
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Sep 6, 2004
37,406
where the darn libs live
So there's an SGP I like tonight. 4 lines that have good projections.

I'm starting to wonder if it's better to break them up into different parlays with other games? Like, there's 2 overs and 1 under on the same team -- I feel like the parlays where it's 4 lines from 4 games hit more often when I break up the lines. Is this crazy?