Great hit HRB. Played the spread and the under plus a parlay. Largest play of the season for me. As always I appreciate reading about your process almost as much as the good results!
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Under was really never in doubt (barring some OT). Joker was as clutch down the stretch as Nesmith proved he’s not The Guy to seal it. Pacers missed, I think, 5 straight wide open 3s in the last few minutes. Beauty.
Great calls.
Great calls.
Much appreciated!
A couple unique spots tonight. You’ve got the Bucks coaching change, playing at home and -6.5 over Cleveland. It’s unique not bc of the coaching change but bc most coaching changes occur on struggling teams so they get the initial shock bump. The Bucks, despite being the worst 30-13 team I’ve ever seen in large part to effort, have won 6 of 7 with their only loss in that stretch being by 40 in Cleveland without Giannis. I’d have to imagine they play to their ceiling more times here then playing to their floor. Lay the -6.5
Golden State hasn’t played in 9 days following the passing of their Asst Coach. Over the last 3 weeks the only teams they have beaten are the Pistons and Bulls during this 2-5 stretch and now host the Trae-less Hawks. Steph was even held out of a game recently due to “exhaustion” per Kerr so this break may not only serve as a tribute/motivation game for them but a break coming at a good time. I always speak about rhythm when teams have more than their normal 2-day rest but this team had none going for them anyway. Should be an enormous home court advantage under these circumstances. Warriors are -7.5 but I prefer the 1H number which when it opens should be -4.
As always great stuff.
@HomeRunBaker is U233 live in the Hawks/Warriors game from your view? I was looking at it from the POv of no Trae and assuming some rust and emotion on the side of the Warriors?
I want to mimic the thanks for this thread and your analyses. I also got Warriors first half -3.5
Not really. My actual number is a couple points higher but nowhere near close enough to play.
Last night I took a flyer (low stakes) on Wemby going 20/10 and Chets going 15/10. Of course, Chets misses by 1 board. That's the run I've been on. I was only able to get Den at -5.5 the other day, so of course they win by 5. But like Blackjack/Poker, if you keep making the right play, you will generally end up ahead. (Note- that parlay was definitely not the right play, that was me on tilt.)
Good call on the O/U number and was spot on in the first half until an apocalyptic last 70 seconds of the half by GSW.
Still hit on Milwaukee and GSW full game lines.
I won small because I had to go overthink things with that 1H. Live and Learn
My only play, and it’s not a big one, is Philly -5
Bucks lost again tonight at home. They play again home vs the Pelicans tomorrow.
then @ Den
@ POR
@ DAL
@ UTAH (2nd might B2B)
@ PHX
Then home…
Min
Cha (B2B)
Den
Mia (B2B)
MEM
all star break
What a brutal 11 game stretch.
then @ Den
@ POR
@ DAL
@ UTAH (2nd might B2B)
@ PHX
Then home…
Min
Cha (B2B)
Den
Mia (B2B)
MEM
all star break
What a brutal 11 game stretch.
They've had by far the easiest schedule in the league by opponent winning percentage, and they've played 5 more home games, and they've outperformed their net rating by 4 games (before tonight). There could be some heavy regression upcoming.
The most road-friendly ref in last 5 years assigned to AFCCG…
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/chiefs-ravens-shawn-smith-referee-trends-impact/
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/chiefs-ravens-shawn-smith-referee-trends-impact/
It’s very easy to not overthink and take +4 in what could easily be a 24-21 or 27-24 final. Since we’re doing scores I’ve got SF 34-13 in the other one.
Yeah, I’ve been feeling like AFC is toss up and NFC could be blow out central.
Wild movement in the mid-afternoon game. Total opens overnight at ridiculously low 213….and proceeds to gradually be bet up to the current 220.5
Oh and ty to my man Cade Cunningham for that 3 at the halftime buzzer to get the 1H Total over the number. That’s how you do me man after how I’ve supported you? Sheesh.
Oh and ty to my man Cade Cunningham for that 3 at the halftime buzzer to get the 1H Total over the number. That’s how you do me man after how I’ve supported you? Sheesh.
At least it kind of washes out with the miracle 1H push in NY. 2 points in the last 80 seconds!
Do NOT and I mean do NOT base any bets on this. It's a pretty normative outcome by range. Click through and read the whole thread.
View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1749879119456633258
Sharp to me is the Chao of analytics in betting. Sounds great until you peel a bit more under the hood. Nothing personal to you, BSF, just an at-large deal as a self precaution. I want to ensure you all save yourself a ticket cost based on this analysis.
Yeah, I don’t let these kinds of analysis influence my bets. I’m betting Chiefs ML because I’ll take Patrick Mahomes +175 any day of the week. Baltimore could easily win, and I hope they do, but that feels like good value to me.
Posted this in PGA thread but thought you guys would find it interesting.
First four winners on PGA Tour in 2024
Chris Kirk 200/1
Grayson Murray 400/1
Nick Dunlap 300/1
Matthieu Pavon 125/1
First four winners on PGA Tour in 2024
Chris Kirk 200/1
Grayson Murray 400/1
Nick Dunlap 300/1
Matthieu Pavon 125/1
Two NBA day games to keep me occupied without any opinion on this first NFL game. I can see the case for both sides…..Mahomes getting more than a FG is enticing but they have had a fortunate draw to get here and have the shorter week plus no Thuney. Ravens have been the better team all year and are at home why isn’t this number same as the SF game? I think it plays close but Ravens have more range equity. Hard pass pre but maybe something live who knows. I’m as guilty as the next person in wanting to play a big NFL game but have to maintain the discipline.
I do like SF at night so I’m be “that guy” in the corner of the sports book watching the Pistons game during the day. I played both NBA Unders a little more than my normal autobet but def not “lock of decade” material.
I do like SF at night so I’m be “that guy” in the corner of the sports book watching the Pistons game during the day. I played both NBA Unders a little more than my normal autobet but def not “lock of decade” material.
I had Pavon on a ladder top 30, 20, 10, 5, and winner. Very small stakes, but good payoff! All thanks to our PGA fantasy league, otherwise I never would have even known or thought of him.
Celts/NO pace has totally changed. Some circus shots to keep some points, but under 230 stands out. It’s about 5 points a minute pace and we’re getting about 3 possessions per minute with much more defensive intensity.
Posting in-game in this thread is the biggest jinx ever. Celtics find a way to make an 11 point lead fall away in the last 2 min when the game was on pace to end at 218, into a foul fest.
edit - fortunately the under 230.5 scraps by. Had under NOP 113.5, 116 and 118.5. Sheesh. Winner I guess but that should not have been a sweat!!
Edit 2 - time to cash out a bunch and run. Good reminder this is the Wild Wild West part of the season.
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Forgive me for not reading this entire thread: do you almost always bet unders on Sunday NBA day games?
I began discussing it here several years ago. It’s been printing money for many years and while the openers don’t adjust for it these are prone to getting slammed. I autobet a portion of my normal play on 1H and Full Game but often add to it….sometimes a lot.
The other one, which is rare in the NBA , but came up twice tonight in college (but is still rare there), are 1H Unders in a delayed start game. When they occur it is usually a lower level D-1 game when a women’s game is the single-admission opener and it runs late, OT, etc. Both games tonight stayed WAY Under in the 1H.
I’ll throw a bone in here. Got in on two same game spots. One before news went official Under 241 in Celtics/Lakers and Lakers +15 after it went official. I like the Under down to 234 so still good here. Obv the 15’s are still available.
Also played Under Knicks and Over Jazz at slightly better numbers but still like them here. Jazz is getting tight though.
Also played Under Knicks and Over Jazz at slightly better numbers but still like them here. Jazz is getting tight though.
I smashed the Celts this morning at -10.5.
I love Utah -4 at home coming back from a long road trip and a couple of bad losses in NY.
Sorry…full game totals
Well you’ve got a great number! Can’t complain w that. Even with tonight’s Celtic exhale they can crawl into double digits if the game goes that way as I feel it could.
It’s also the Celtics 5th in 8 days after a heavy dose the past month while looking forward to a couple days off. Dangerous spot. Probably an game. Wouldn’t be surprised if they let LA hang around and play sluggish….it’s actually what I expect. The Under here is my fav but I like the side too.
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I’d prob take some lakers first quarter as a mini hedge. Could totally see a play with your food opening half in this one as they know they can blow them out in the 2nd.
Yeah, I was tempted on the Q1 line of +4.5 for the Lakers, but just gonna let it run at this point.
Didn’t get in here early enough but game began as expected. I added +13.5 after first TO but none of my places had ML when it was worth it. It must not have any value now.
I’m going to be looking to play some Lakers under team total, some during the half and prob load up a bit more if the Celtics prove they care during the 3rd.
I’m in too good a spot to mess around. Will def observe for opportunities though. GL.
I got it at 114 just before the half. But even 110.5 implies 51 2nd half points. Celtics had 12 turnovers and Lakers shot 52% from 3 to get 60 first half points. So a little bit of defensive intensity or getting their heads out of their ass to reduce the turnovers should make it more difficult to but up another 50+. We’ll see.
Thank you sir! I’ve been traveling for two weeks and keep forgetting to write up stuff. Good news is tonight I was able to stuff some Ben’s into the kiosks at a retail casino on top of the accounts.
As most of you know my wagers are placed through local PayPerHead accounts, offshore or kiosks at retail casinos. Last week I began using my Hard Rock Bet account and am blown away, kinda infuriated/embarrassed, that when you log in any player can scroll across for “suggested” wagers that clearly and obviously are not in the best interest of the player. I’ve never heard of a book marketing wagers influencing action in this manner to unsuspecting and (mostly) inexperienced consumers. Wtf am I looking at here?
As someone who really only started sports betting because of the apps and then found people like yourself, and others, to learn from and do it the right way…it’s absurd. The parlay incentives, suggested bets, gimmicks are all wild.
They all do it. First thing you see when you open the FanDuel and DK apps are their shitty premade parlays front and center.