For all we know, Groome's camp has already indicated a willingness to take the rest of the Sox's budget, and the team is trying to sign him for a bit less before throwing in the towel.
Red Sox Select LHP Jason Groome 12th Overall
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For all we know, Groome's camp has already indicated a willingness to take the rest of the Sox's budget, and the team is trying to sign him for a bit less before throwing in the towel.
Boston has roughly ~5 million available according to the other draft thread. Offering Groome 3.5m is just an attempt to get all three guys signed. If they go to 4 that's probably not going to happen. But if Groome will accept 4 then I'm pretty confident this gets done.
They have 5 million but that is only if Shawaryn and Dalbec sign. If they sign for exactly slot the Sox have about $4.2 million. If those two don't sign at all the Sox have about $4.15 million (they lose the value of the slots plus the 5% overage of those slots).
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Because of the slotting system, it is a bit more complicated than this. You can offer Groome the maximum you expect, AKA, the maximum if those two guys don't sign. But if you offer him even $100 more and they don't sign, then you lose a pick.
So Groome's agent, if he wants to maximize the bonus from the Red Sox, would necessarily want to wait for those two guys to be signed, especially because if one of them capitulates and signs for less than slot, that is money that could go into Groome's pocket.
Yes, they are smart enough to negotiate the best contract possible when presented with the opportunity and not be dumb and risk it like Harrington (save for a few like Brady Aiken). Though I assume you're talking about something like an insurance policy, which is very rare for a college player.
Yeah, I was think that Groome could take out insurance to protect himself. Although an insurance company would be protecting an asset that is in itself a risk not to come to fruition. It's not like insuring Marilyn Monroe's legs, for instance.
Wow, I'm not sure I'd classify Aiken as dumb. The Astros and Aiken agreed to $6.5M (which was already well below slot for 1-1) and then dropped their offer all the down to $3.1, the bare minimum to secure a comp pick the next year. Have whatever opinion on the Astros for doing that (I think they were within their right and they turned out being correct about his elbow), but considering he was healthy at the time, I'm not sure I'm his shoes I'd do anything differently. That's a pretty shitty employer/employee relationship to start out with. It ended up costing Aiken some coin, but probably not enough considering the factors at play to call him dumb.
Insurance policies for athletes are super expensive, though, and they only cover injuries. If he has a nagging elbow injury (one that doesnt require TJ) and puts up an ERA of 6 next year, he isnt a top draft pick and his insurance policy doesnt pay out.
Assuming the Sox final offer is in the $3.5M to $4M range, he would be a fool to not take it. There's a greater chance he turns out to be Matt Harrington or Brady Aiken then Mark Appell.
It was dumb. They dropped their offer down to $3.1M when his routine physical showed his elbow was a mess and he was on the verge of needing TJ surgery. They later upped their offer to $5M but he turned that down as well, went to college, and got hurt in literally the first inning, needing TJ surgery.
He may have been offended, but had he taken a minute to think about it, he would have taken the $5M offer. Once he had the results of the MRI in his hand, he knew he was taking a HUGE gamble and it didnt pay off.
The bolded is simply not true and while HIPPA prevented the exact details from getting out, the story was relayed by guys like Law, Reiter, etc. His elbow was healthy, no worse condition than any other pitchers elbow. The issue was he had an anatomically smaller UCL than normal and the Astros freaked out. It was most certainly not a "mess" nor was he "on the verge of needing TJ". And their $5M offer came at the absolute last minute, being offered 5 minutes before the deadline. At that point it was seen quite certainly as an effort to save face and for the Astros to be able to sign their two other bonus babies that were hanging in the balance of Aiken signing below slot.
MLB actually even waived the deadline and gave permission for a sign and trade. Aiken still said no.
I'm quite certain that Aiken and his agent, who is one of the top few in the league, took a minute to think about it. It didn't work out for them, but you calling him an idiot is a total product of 20/20 hindsight. In a business operating without a free market, good faith goes a long way when your future employer controls the next 6-10 years or so of your existence. If you don't trust them or there is animosity, maybe that's actually worth someone more than $2.5M? And if you have multiple orthos and your agent telling you you're healthy and not to accept an offer from a team that you clearly have no reason to trust and has a history of mishandling pitchers like Appel, I see it perfectly reasonable to roll the dice. Quality of life may not be as high on the list for you, ymmv.
Either way, he doesn't belong in sentences with Matt Harrington or Jason Groome. Harrington was purely ego driven. If Groome declines, it will be the same.
If multiple orthos examined him and told him he was healthy, and then he went out and needed major surgery the next time he went to pitch competitively, I would question both the people who examined him and the profession as a whole.
Clearly the Astros doctors knew something was wrong. He chose not to believe them and instead trusted his own doctors and then wasn't able to get a single inning out of it. We're not talking about a kid who threw 100 college innings and got hurt at the end after a long, work heavy season. First inning, first game. He made a $5M gamble and lost. He's lucky that the Indians took him where they did and gave him $2.5M, because had he fallen to the end of the first round (where big market teams are usually willing to take the high upside, high risk guys), he would have lost even more.
You realize he threw a baseball in between the time he finished his high school season and before he threw his first inning at IMG right? Likely multiple times? And that it wasn't in a competitive situation really doesn't mean anything? Especially with the evolution of amateur showcases and travel ball, these kids throw way more than they ever have and there's no reason to think those coaches are responsible with their players health.
The Astros doctors made a judgment call and the FO tried to use it to game the system, screw the kid over and wedge Marshall into their pool. Injuries are not always predictable and there's no reason to think the Astros doctors were any more reliable than Aiken's. There was a medical difference of opinion and the kid chose to trust his camp. In the same situation, I think many people would make the same decision.
Again, that it did in fact snap does not change the decision making process except in hindsight. His elbow wasnt hanging by a thread and he recklessly made the decision to roll the dice. He was told he had an abnormality that may lead to an issue down the road. It's not like Hou doctors looked into a crystal ball and said "the elbow will blow out in X amount of pitches" and he said "screw it, no thanks".
I'd also argue that he wasn't necessarily lucky that Cleveland took him. The scenario where he fell to a team later in the round or in the second a team might have taken him and given him even more by utilizing some later round under slots. Witness SD supposedly telling Groome they'd give him $5M if he slid to them.
Can someone explain to me:
Are teams obliged to give players minor league minimums once signed? (salary/month based on league and service time)
If so, the signing bonus represents everything (time only represents risk)
If not, can teams pay prospects a higher salary to make signing now substantially more lucrative than waiting and foregoing a year's income? I assume the answer to that is, "no" because I can't find any reference to it online - and it seems particularly sleazy, even for baseball.
Are teams obliged to give players minor league minimums once signed? (salary/month based on league and service time)
If so, the signing bonus represents everything (time only represents risk)
If not, can teams pay prospects a higher salary to make signing now substantially more lucrative than waiting and foregoing a year's income? I assume the answer to that is, "no" because I can't find any reference to it online - and it seems particularly sleazy, even for baseball.
They did away with that in the last cba when they put in slotting and stopped allowing ML contracts being offered to minor leaguers. Minor league contracts are standard until they reach mL free agency.
While not quite (yet) what you're asking, there is Fantex which allows individuals (or companies) "Invest in the lifetime earnings of professional athletes. Fantex is an alternative asset category offering real stocks with opportunities for dividends." Player gives up some percentage (~10).
They've been covered by MLBTradeRumors quite a bit (spoilers: no Sox)
I suppose Groom could get such a deal, but most of the signee's have been more advanced prospects, with MLB time.
Groome's local press throws some shade
Basically, Groome and Co. are sticking to their guns, with Randazzo having told teams prior to the draft that they were looking for a signing bonus in the $4-million range, which was one of the reasons Groome's stock fell in weeks leading up to the draft.
To put that in perspective, the average American household will earn $2.04 million over the course of a lifetime, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
http://www.app.com/story/sports/baseball/2016/07/12/report-jason-groome-wants-more-cash-red-sox/86979222/
Basically, Groome and Co. are sticking to their guns, with Randazzo having told teams prior to the draft that they were looking for a signing bonus in the $4-million range, which was one of the reasons Groome's stock fell in weeks leading up to the draft.
To put that in perspective, the average American household will earn $2.04 million over the course of a lifetime, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
http://www.app.com/story/sports/baseball/2016/07/12/report-jason-groome-wants-more-cash-red-sox/86979222/
If the Sox sign both Dalbec and Shawaryn for slot, they will have $4,175,400 for Groome.
If they dont sign either, they will have $4,131,630 for Groome (all they lose is the "extra" 5% from the loss of the slot picks).
Unless they are legitimately trying to save money on Groome to sign later round picks for over slot, there's no reason they cant give him something in the $4M range.
If they dont sign either, they will have $4,131,630 for Groome (all they lose is the "extra" 5% from the loss of the slot picks).
Unless they are legitimately trying to save money on Groome to sign later round picks for over slot, there's no reason they cant give him something in the $4M range.
Alex Speier @alexspeier 3m3 minutes ago
Source: Red Sox deal w/1st-rounder Jason Groome 'getting closer,' 'should get done,' though final bonus figure still being discussed.
Here's a bit more to keep you busy while we inevitably wait til Friday.
http://shoresportsnetwork.com/baseball-red-sox-and-jason-groome-nearing-deal-as-well-they-should/
I wonder if we could pay Dalbec and Shawaryn more and have their advisors funnel the money to Groome...?
Ah, the Internet ... where someone with no information to add just rounds up everything that's been said by others and passes it off as a story
I beg to differ. There's nothing wrong with a decent synthesis. And the author did make one point which I don't believe has been mentioned - that a 2017 compensation pic at #13 would not be be protected. Is EE worth Jason Groome (or the 2017 equivalent) plus $75 million ?
I'll grant you the draft point ... but this thread has been nothing but synthesis.
Actually it's a local reporter from down Barnegat way whose synthesis seems to be based on first-hand information and actual sources, except for the part about whether he'll sign, which no reporter can say.
yeah why aren't any SOSH members getting out there and interviewing primary sources? you've all changed.
This is a good point that I feel most people miss. I recall a couple years ago, some kid signed immediately (forget which team even, but I think the Jays) so he could play as soon as possible and start that clock ticking.
Groome is 18 (essentially) let's say he's awesome and rolls through the minors in 2 years and starts his service clock as a 20 year old. Isn't being a 26 year old free agent worth $500K compared to being a 27 year old free agent?
Your first statement is just odd. The vast majority of kids sign pretty quickly because they don't have leverage or lined up a deal before the draft. Cases like Groome - when guys who were rumored to be going 1-1 fell, a lot - are outliers. Especially since slotting came in and the deadline got moved waaaayyyy back.
Your second statement is asinine unless you think he's the LH Doc Gooden. HS pitchers don't hit the majors in two years unless they are generational talents. In which case one year isn't going to make any kind of difference to his bottom line. Unless he is, ya know, the LH Doc Gooden and snorts it all.
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OTOH, if we think he shouldn't roll the dice on next year because of the uncertainty, then it's a bit baffling to say he should be factoring an extra half-million eight years from now into his thinking.
As related by Jim Bouton, it smacks of Yankees reps telling prospects to sign for what was offered and plan on getting a WS share of $ later.
Is it generally assumed to be true that time in the minor leagues is fairly constant, whether a guy has a year or two in JuCo or not? I would think the biggest factor in when his service clock starts is his age, and JuCo vs. a year in the low minors doesn't make a whole lot of difference in his development. Some, but not a whole lot. Is there evidence I'm wrong, or are you making a weird assumption?
It's been stated before, but Groome is the one taking the risk here. Playing JuCo and risk getting injured or possibly play great. If he plays great, how much will he improve his stock and signing bonus doing that? Hell, what if he has a bad year, he hurts his chances and signing bonus.
It's not like the Red Sox have offered way under slot here. From what I'm reading, they are going over slot, right?
If he was your son, do you think he should sign or go play college? I know what I'd want him to do and it's not college ball.
It's not like the Red Sox have offered way under slot here. From what I'm reading, they are going over slot, right?
If he was your son, do you think he should sign or go play college? I know what I'd want him to do and it's not college ball.
Exactly. The Red Sox should get him and his parents some of those articles that have been written about college coaches abusing pitchers, and then show them the plan they follow with their high school arms.
Oh, I agree he should sign and that it's clearly in his best interest. I was only quibbling about the piece of your reasoning in the particular post I quoted, and nothing you said here is relevant to that. I don't think he improves his bonus much, if at all, by playing in JuCo and if he were my son I would definitely tell him to sign this year. I just don't think his choice of where to play next year makes a big difference in when he cracks a 25-man roster. He would have to have a relatively poor showing in the minors (compared to expectations for him) to reach rule 5 eligibility and then run out of option years.
Some reports this morning that Shawaryn has signed, which depending on your point of view could mean everything from the Sox now know what it will take to sign Groome to they have given up completely on signing Groome.
“@alexspeier: Sources still expect a deal between the Red Sox and 1st round LHP Jason Groome, though at this point no final deal in place.”
Still looks good.
Evan Drellich Verified account @EvanDrellich 5m5 minutes ago
Source: Red Sox No. 12 overall pick Jason Groome is in Boston to take his physical. Deal close but not finalized.
Source: Red Sox No. 12 overall pick Jason Groome is in Boston to take his physical. Deal close but not finalized.
Sorry, this is popping up as "loading tweet" even on the laptop...I assume by the posts after he signed, but could someone relay the details?
