Red Sox Deadline Discussion
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echo this.Rasputin said:
If the plan is to compete next year and 2016, you try to extend him now. Along with Lester. The Sox should not be dealing players that are the best at their position, which Koji has been for the last 2 seasons.
Yes, I know he is 39. But the way the Sox use him, 1 inning - never more then 3 days in a row, plus he doesn't rely on velocity, I could see him pitching very effectively for the next 3-4 seasons (ala Mariano).
If teams call and we are selling, dangle Badenhop, Breslow and Miller for set-up roles.
There is zero reason to extend Koji. You take him year to year at his age. Anything more is a sentimental move and this team doesn't make sentimental moves.
Nothing at all to do with sentimentality, 100% due to his skills and results.Snodgrass'Muff said:
It all depends on price/value, but as long as people continue to use conventional wisdom and site his age as a deterrent to signing him for multiple years, the cheaper we probably can get him.
You haven't made an argument for why the team should risk a multi-year deal on a relief pitcher who is 39 years old when he has expressed no desire for such a deal. This isn't like David Ortiz barking about wanting a multi-year deal. There is every reason to believe that as long as they make him fair offers each winter, he'll keep coming back until he's ready to retire. This also hedges against his age catching up to him and them being on the hook for millions of dollars without getting the production.
You don't throw out multi-year commitments to players who will be 40 or older if you don't have to. You say you think he can keep dominating for another 3-4 years like Mo. Based on what? You are arguing he will be the exception, so provide some exceptional evidence. His past production is not evidence of how he will age or whether he can beat father time the way so few players have in the history of the game. Chances are that in two years he's either retired or a middle reliever refusing to acknowledge that time has caught up with him.
You don't throw out multi-year commitments to players who will be 40 or older if you don't have to. You say you think he can keep dominating for another 3-4 years like Mo. Based on what? You are arguing he will be the exception, so provide some exceptional evidence. His past production is not evidence of how he will age or whether he can beat father time the way so few players have in the history of the game. Chances are that in two years he's either retired or a middle reliever refusing to acknowledge that time has caught up with him.
I know it defies all logic, but sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.benhogan said:
What I would do with Koji is try to negotiate a one year deal, maybe witth an option for a second that kicks in if he stays healthy, and if that doesn't happen quickly, make him the qualifying offer. He'll probably accept and be overpaid for a season and I'm okay with that.
snowmanny said:
How many 40 year old relievers not named Mariano Rivera have gotten multi-year deals at significant money?
Snodgrass'Muff said:
How many 40 year old relievers not named Mariano Rivera have been the best closers in the game for 2 seasons running?
Two can play at that game, and that game sucks.
Adrian's Dome said:
Setting aside your hyperbole, if you think he's likely to age like Mariano Rivera, then you are arguing for the exception. I'm betting on what happens to almost every player in their 40's. If you think he's unlikely to age like almost every other major leaguer before him, explain why. Until I see a good argument for why he should be expected to continue to be one of the top relievers in the game at age 40 and 41, I'm not going to consider offering him a multi-year extension a good idea. If he's going to regress from great to very good or worse, drop off a cliff like relievers do every season, a multi-year deal is going to hurt. And anyone arguing that the Sox can afford to pay him X million a year for mediocrity is arguing for a deal based on sentiment, not objectivity.
And look, I love Koji. He's been phenomenal since they signed him. He's a huge reason why the Red Sox won it all in 2013 and he'll be a huge reason why he crawl back into the division race if they are able to do that. But he's 39 years old. Betting on multiple years of him remaining this good is foolhardy.
Explain why? Because he's 39 and he's still one of the best relievers in the league. You're being obtuse and acting like we're projecting a 25 year old to be good until he's 42.
He's not reliant on velocity, his split is showing no signs of decline, he keeps himself in pretty good shape, he's no more of an injury risk than any other reliever, and he's as effective right now as he's ever been. What else do you want? I don't see it as much different than betting on a Moyer, Wake, a Niekro, or yes, Mariano at the same age.
I'm all for taking it year by year, but generally players (and especially the union) don't love that, so if it's going to take 2-3 years of reasonable money to keep him around, that's not exactly the fool's bet you're making it out to be.
He's not reliant on velocity, his split is showing no signs of decline, he keeps himself in pretty good shape, he's no more of an injury risk than any other reliever, and he's as effective right now as he's ever been. What else do you want? I don't see it as much different than betting on a Moyer, Wake, a Niekro, or yes, Mariano at the same age.
I'm all for taking it year by year, but generally players (and especially the union) don't love that, so if it's going to take 2-3 years of reasonable money to keep him around, that's not exactly the fool's bet you're making it out to be.
I'm not being obtuse. I'm pointing out that he's 39 years old and that historically, guys have overwhelmingly aged poorly in their 40's. You are arguing that like Mariano, Koji is the exception. You need to provide exceptional evidence and you aren't. Pointing out that he's currently really good does nothing to address my concern. Pointing to a bunch of starting pitchers does not answer my question. Moyer, Niekro and Wakefield were all starters up until they retired and Wake had been on a year to year option for years leading up to his final season anyway. So again, what examples of relievers going into their 40's have receiving multi-year offers at significant money can you point to? The answer is Mariano Rivera, and he's the exception, not the rule. If you want to argue Koji is also an exception, provide more than "He's currently one of the best and he's not in bad shape."
I'll even take my question a step further, on the offhand chance I'm forgetting someone. How many relievers who were in or going into their 40's have been offered multi-year contracts at substantial money and had it work out well?
I've still yet to see one compelling reason for the Sox to extend Koji now, or for multiple years. He's too old to make that bet and there's no reason to believe that failing to extend him now will prevent the team from signing him over the winter if they want him back for the 2015 season. As it pertains to this season and the trade deadline specifically, if the team believes it is out of contention, trading him might be the right move depending on the return. If the team believes it can win the AL East, they should keep him in Boston as he's the best option they have for a closer at present.
I'll even take my question a step further, on the offhand chance I'm forgetting someone. How many relievers who were in or going into their 40's have been offered multi-year contracts at substantial money and had it work out well?
I've still yet to see one compelling reason for the Sox to extend Koji now, or for multiple years. He's too old to make that bet and there's no reason to believe that failing to extend him now will prevent the team from signing him over the winter if they want him back for the 2015 season. As it pertains to this season and the trade deadline specifically, if the team believes it is out of contention, trading him might be the right move depending on the return. If the team believes it can win the AL East, they should keep him in Boston as he's the best option they have for a closer at present.
Koji has been an 'exceptional' relief pitcher at ages 35, 36, 37, 38 and 39. He has varied from very good to the 'greatest relief pitcher ever' in those years.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Age 35- 44 ip 55k 5bb .95 whip 2.86 era
Age 36- 65 iip 85k 9bb .72 whip 2.35 era
Age 37- 36 ip 43k 3bb .64 whip 1.75 era
Age 38- 74.1 ip 101k 9bb .57 whip 1.09 era
Age 39- 36.2 ip 47k 5bb .74whip 1.23 era
In the 35 years of watching baseball I can only recall 1 pitcher that has been this dominant from 35-39, and thats Mariano. Can you name anyone else that has been this good at 35-39?
So Yes I'd much rather roll the dice on a lean and mean Koji at 40 and 41 then a fat shit relief pitcher (Jenks, Bailey, Hanrahan, Mujica) that is in their late 20s/early 30s.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
I'd agree. Koji has a track record in MLB going back to '09 that shows him being good or very good (or very very good, if one prefers) as a reliever. Last year he was otherworldly. This year he's getting similar results to '13, but his peripherals are sinking back into his previously established "very good" range. To put it another way, we're not getting '13 Uehara *right now.* And frankly, that's a little too much to ask from any pitcher.
Uehara may have found a new facet to his game at age 38. But if I had to guess, I'd say that he's more likely to be "very good" for a couple of years further, rather than astoundingly excellent. But there's also the issue of whether he can avoid injury. Another high appearance year for him may shorten his shelf life considerably.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Below is the list of 38+ year-olds who have 20+ saves, 100+ ERA+, positive WAR and positive WPA:
[tablegrid= 38+ year-olds who have 20+ saves, 100+ ERA+, positive WAR and positive WPA ]
Essentially, the sample size is 4 pitchers prior to Koji.
Wilhelm had those 3 years and pitched another 8 pretty successful years - but he's a knuckleballer from 50 years ago.
Mariano we know - after those 38/39 years he had 2 more great years, 1 injured year, and 1 more great year, retiring at the top of his game.
Todd Jones wasn't actually all that great - pitched 1 more year somewhat below average instead of somewhat above average, and retired.
Hoffman had those 2 great years, had a 101 ERA+ mostly due to a huge HR rate at age 40, the great age 41 season above, and a terrible age 42 season.
So it would be fair to say that Koji's current stretch at his current age is only comparable to Rivera and Hoffman in baseball history. Age 40: Rivera great, Hoffman great but for HR rate. Age 41: Both great. Age 42: Rivera injured, Hoffman terrible. Age 43: Rivera great, Hoffman retired.
I'm in the camp where you only entertain trading Uehara if a team is stupid enough to offer one of their top tier/ best organizational prospect bats for him. This is unlikely to happen because of his age/contract and therefore if I'm a FO who has failed with Mujica Hanarahan Jenks Bailey in succession I keep him around till he breaks down.
Contrary to popular belief useful and dependable closers do not grow on trees. Sure Tazawa might be able to step up next year but then there's a hole in the 8th. This one run game obsessed team would without a doubt be sellers now without the very good Koji they've had this year.
As for koji's peripherals sinking i'm not buying it. Him and Kimbrel are the best in the league by far and isn't even really close. He was historically unbelievable last year. A bit of regression was inevitable.
Bottom line is I don't see his performance falling off a cliff because he doesn't rely on velocity very much like the exception Mariano. Considering his track record I would be comfortable talking an extension with some option kick in language for his 41 y/o season which of course one can objectively argue is insane. However, I think you can objectively argue it is not insane just as convincingly.
Contrary to popular belief useful and dependable closers do not grow on trees. Sure Tazawa might be able to step up next year but then there's a hole in the 8th. This one run game obsessed team would without a doubt be sellers now without the very good Koji they've had this year.
As for koji's peripherals sinking i'm not buying it. Him and Kimbrel are the best in the league by far and isn't even really close. He was historically unbelievable last year. A bit of regression was inevitable.
Bottom line is I don't see his performance falling off a cliff because he doesn't rely on velocity very much like the exception Mariano. Considering his track record I would be comfortable talking an extension with some option kick in language for his 41 y/o season which of course one can objectively argue is insane. However, I think you can objectively argue it is not insane just as convincingly.
Or to put the question another way: how did guys who were as good as Koji last year in their age 38 year do in the ensuing years?
But wait, that doesn't help because no one (or almost no one) was ever as good as Koji was last year, at age 38 or any other age.
And it wasn't just 2013. Koji's numbers since the start of 2011 (age 36 year):
203 IPs, 113 hits, 26 BB, 277 Ks, 1.46 ERA.
So no, sentimentality aside, this is not the guy you nickel and dime over a 2nd year, unless your most important team objective is not ever paying money to injured players.
But wait, that doesn't help because no one (or almost no one) was ever as good as Koji was last year, at age 38 or any other age.
And it wasn't just 2013. Koji's numbers since the start of 2011 (age 36 year):
203 IPs, 113 hits, 26 BB, 277 Ks, 1.46 ERA.
So no, sentimentality aside, this is not the guy you nickel and dime over a 2nd year, unless your most important team objective is not ever paying money to injured players.
benhogan said:
Repeating that he's been great up to this point does not address the issue. What reason do we have to believe that it is necessary to extend him at multiple years going forward? What precedent is there for relief pitchers his age, even very good one's getting multi-year offers? It's the rare exception. And since no one seems willing or able to address the fact that it is the rare exception, I'll stop harping on it after this post. But if all you can do is fall back on "He's been so good over the last x years!" then you are arguing for a contract offer made out of sentimentality. Paying for past performance is bad business.
I will ask one more question. Is there a single report that Koji is asking for a multi-year extension? Or that he wouldn't be amenable to negotiating with the Sox in good faith this winter if he isn't extended during the season? I still contend there is zero reason to pursue an extension now and see almost no reason they should look to sign him to anything more than a one year contract this winter. The absolute worst case scenario is that a market develops early for his services in which multi-year contracts are being offered by other teams. If the Red Sox decide they really want him back for one more year, they extend a QO and overpay to keep him for one more season. If the market develops for him late and it's going to take a multi-year offer to keep him from moving to another team, you decide whether it's worth it at that point. Doing it now is jumping the gun.
SirPsychoSquints said:
Thank you for doing this legwork. I think it underscores my point quite nicely. Regarding Hoffman, Cot's doesn't go back before 2009, but that season he was on a one year contract. The guy most consider the second greatest closer ever was on a one year deal in his age 41 season. He signed another one year deal going into 2010, with an option. He also switched teams from 2008 to 2009 meaning the Padres didn't have him on a contract that took him past his age 40 season.
Teams do not get locked into multi-year commitments with relievers in their 40's. It's just not a good idea.
Relievers are a crap shoot. They always have been, and always will be. Citing the FO's failures with closer types is silly because 2/4 seemed like good ideas at the time and it's too early to write of Mujica anyway. If you can get someone to overpay in a trade, of course you do that. Barring that, I actually like the idea of a 1 year deal with a vesting option of some sort, I think it would well for both sides.jimbobim said:
KillerBs said:
Well put, thank you.
Snod, you keep saying this, and numbers keep coming out, but you're ignoring them and repeating yourself. What exact kind of "exceptional evidence" do you want, a day-by-day prediction of his exact future numbers? Sure, let me pull a Biff Tannen and get my almanac. You're talking about the common reliever, we're talking about the exception, and to this point, it sure looks as if there's more pointing toward the idea that Koji might be the exception and not the rule. Your argument is all "how this, provide that, show me how this has worked out", but the problem is, we're dealing with somewhat uncharted territory and you know it. You're asking unanswerable questions.
What I want you to answer is: why would a 2-3 year at reasonable reliever money for a guy that's putting up historically good seasons to this exact point seem to be a crippling, unacceptable move? If by year 3 Koji has morphed into what is only a "good" or "decent" reliever instead of an otherworldly one, that's still not a deal that hamstrings a team's finances.
Adrian's Dome said:
You're still looking backwards. I'm asking you to look forward and explain why he won't age like a 40 year old or why a team would bet on that happening. You can't because in the history of baseball only one reliever was treated like that and he happened to be Mariano Rivera. Koji is incredibly good. That doesn't mean he's not 39 years old. I'm not ignoring your point, you are ignoring mine. So no, my question isn't unanswerable. It's just that the answer isn't one which you can use to justify a multi-year contract for Koji in his age 40, 41 and maybe 42 seasons. You can point to his production up to this point all you want, but you are deliberately avoiding my point. I probably should have just ignored this post and stayed out, but you keep insisting this debate is something it isn't.
It's about him being 39 years old right now, not about how well he's performed up to this point. If he can stay healthy and avoid the decline that happens to nearly every athlete his age, sure... he'd be worth a 3 year deal. The chances of those things happening are so small, however, that extending him now or offering him 2 or 3 years this winter can only be justified by paying for past performance, which is always a bad idea.
Adrian's Dome said:
It's not about one contract crippling the franchise. It's about making a bad deal in isolation. The team should never look at a situation and think "Eh, this deal is probably going to be an overpay, but fuck it... we have more money, let's do it!" Again, can anyone provide a single link for Koji asking to be extended now? Can anyone provide a link where he talks about wanting to play for 2 or 3 more years?
You guys are jumping the gun here. But I'm repeating myself far too much and this isn't the "Extend Koji" thread, so I'm really going to stop derailing now. Feel free to restate your position again if you want. It doesn't address my concerns and doesn't answer any of my questions. I acknowledge that Koji is exceptionally good right now. I don't see a reason to assume he won't age like a normal human being or that teams are suddenly going to line up to offer 2 or 3 years to a reliever in his 40's.
I would also be interested in knowing how the Sox are going to spend the money they would save by drawing a line in the sand about multi year deals for 39 year old RPers. Are they saving their pennies so they can make a big splash elsewhere? or pocketing the change?
I'm guessing Koji will get close to 2/$20m if he goes on the market, so I'd definitely give him the qualifying offer and overpay him for one year, if that has to happen. I'd prefer a two year deal, something in the vicinity of 2/18 with injury protection.
HriniakPosterChild said:
Too timid for me. He might reject the QO. I'd go 17 or 18 at least. But I'd go higher if it was a multi year deal.
Nolan Reimold just got DFA'd. The guy just can not stay healthy but if he hits waivers, it'll only cost about $500 K for the rest of the season. Seems like a decent flier but he's nothing more than a LF at best.
EDIT: He's certainly not THE answer to the offense but it's low cost and if he can stay healthy, he might end up being what the Sox hoped Sizemore would be.
EDIT: He's certainly not THE answer to the offense but it's low cost and if he can stay healthy, he might end up being what the Sox hoped Sizemore would be.
I don't for a minute think that Koji is going to get huge dollars, especially when he has a qualifying offer sitting around his neck. I mean, look what it did to Drew and Morales, or even Cruz. And if he doesn't accept the qualifying offer, it's not like they can't negotiate further.Rovin Romine said:
Purge [purj] Show IPA
verb (used with object), purged, purg·ing.
1.
to rid of whatever is impure or undesirable; cleanse; purify.
2.
to rid, clear, or free (usually followed by of or from ): to purge a political party of disloyal members.
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5.
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verb (used with object), purged, purg·ing.
1.
to rid of whatever is impure or undesirable; cleanse; purify.
2.
to rid, clear, or free (usually followed by of or from ): to purge a political party of disloyal members.
3.
to clear of imputed guilt or ritual uncleanliness.
4.
to clear away or wipe out legally (an offense, accusation, etc.) by atonement or other suitableaction.
5.
to remove by cleansing or purifying (often followed by away, off, or out ).
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With the call up of Oscar Taveras, Allen Craig gas been relegated to the bench. This is a guy who for 2.5 seasons before this year slashed 312/.364/.500/.863. He's literally never made an outfield error and he's got some defensive flexibility.
The Cardinals need some pitching help. Maybe they'd want Peavy, maybe they'd want Mujica back... I don't know but there seems to be a real opportunity there to buy low. Craig isn't a great defensive player but LF in Fenway could make use of his sure handedness and decent arm without needing big time range. Expecting his bat to come back is a little bit of a gamble, but he'd had a big sample size from 2011-2013 that I think showed he was for real. At 25 million remaining over 3 years I think it's a decent enough shot for a team with the Sox's resources.
The Cardinals need some pitching help. Maybe they'd want Peavy, maybe they'd want Mujica back... I don't know but there seems to be a real opportunity there to buy low. Craig isn't a great defensive player but LF in Fenway could make use of his sure handedness and decent arm without needing big time range. Expecting his bat to come back is a little bit of a gamble, but he'd had a big sample size from 2011-2013 that I think showed he was for real. At 25 million remaining over 3 years I think it's a decent enough shot for a team with the Sox's resources.
Cardinals are a great fit in terms of trade partners. I am a bit worried about Craig's downward trend in power, however, it may be due to lingering issues with his foot. I would be even more worried if the Cardinals were willing to trade Craig for Peavy.BosRedSox5 said:
Why? I think Peavy could be pretty useful for them not only on the mound, but as an additional veteran presence for some of the youngsters. Peavy for Craig makes some sense for both sides. Not exactly a blockbuster, but ...EricFeczko said:
I'd still do the trade, but I'd be less excited about it. The last time the Cardinals traded a major league player for a useful but not critical piece (Freese for Bourjos), the major league player ended up being terrible (Freese). If the Cardinals were willing to trade Craig for Peavy, I'd be worried that this year's performance may not be a fluke for Craig.Yaz4Ever said:
It is definitely superstitious. However, it seems like every player the Cardinals have traded for scraps or dropped in free agency ends up shitting the bed (mujica, pujols, Renteria, Freese, etc.).moondog80 said:
Can we please stop with the "if X team doesn't want him then he's probably broken and no one should want him!" argument?EricFeczko said:
If the Cardinals trade Craig it will be because he's blocking Tavares, Pischotty, Grichuk, etc. from regular playing time. The Allen Craig who hits >.800 OPS and is viewed by Cards fans as a perpetual RBI machine is a guy worth blocking someone for. As soon as there is a realistic chance that he's not going to be that guy and still cost them $25M? Well, to say that the Cards are tight with their money is an understatement, and he'd be exactly the kind of salary reducing move they'd look to make. They don't have a crystal ball. They likely are as unsure about Craig's future as the rest of the baseball world right now. But they have the OF depth to not need to take that risk whereas some other team, such as the Red Sox, do not.
I've mentioned this deal on here before and I still think it makes a ton of sense for both clubs. Mujica doesn't make sense for them, no relief help does really, they've got young options there on the farm, but they do need IF help and the Sox don't really need Stephen Drew anymore.
I think something like Peavy (owed another ~$7M) and Drew (owed another ~$5M) for Craig (~$25M over the next three years with a 4th year option), Thomas Pham, and Lee Stoppelman. In addition the Red Sox pick up about half of the remaining Peavy/Drew salary.
Upside for the Red Sox: Craig's contract is cheap enough for the Sox to bet on him rebounding as he gets further removed from his lisfranc injury. Thomas Pham is a post-prospect at 26 but has impressive AA and AAA numbers. He is stuck behind three superior and younger prospects with the Cards and just as he was getting it going in AA he needed season ending shoulder surgery a few years back, so he's actually been rule 5 eligible for a few years now. His AAA numbers are too good to make it through another off-season that way but he's also not beating out Holiday, Jay, Tavares, Grichuk, or Pischotty for a 40 man roster spot and they'll need to add Ramsey to that list soon as well. Lee Stoppelman is a 24 year old LHRP who struggled hard making the move to AAA this year and has been demoted to AA. For the Cards he's a fringe guy for the 40 man roster, for the Sox he could get a longer shot at AAA if they clear out Breslow, Miller, etc. and let the young lefties in Hernandez, Britton and the addition of Stoppelman find them a young cost controlled LHRP.
Upside for the Cards: Get much needed SP help for the stretch run. Get much needed MI depth for the stretch run, letting them either play drew at 2B or pump Peralta over to 3B and Carpenter over to 2B. Given that Wong is questionable to get 100% this season Drew's remaining rental period is a pretty good fit for the Cardinals. They also free up an every day spot for Tavares, Grichuk, and Pischotty to fight over.
The Red Sox would be the ones taking on legitimate risk in the deal, but they'd also have the greater long term upside if Craig returns to form. The addition of Pham would give the Sox a much needed additional CF capable outfielder, giving them the ability to option Bradley if they feel that has become necessary.
EricFeczko said:
1. It's not like we'd be giving away a golden arm here. Peavy isn't anything special and will walk at the end of the year. I'd be more than happy with Craig coming back and seeing if we can get him turned around.
2. Craig has nothing to do with David Freese, Edgar Rentaria or Albert Pujols. If you trade for him, it's because you think he can be a contributor. You might be taking a chance and whiff, but again, you're only giving up Peavy to see what you can do with him. If your scouts and talent evaluators think Craig can bounce back, you trust them. You don't say, "Well if STL is moving him there must be something wrong because look at what happened to David Freese and Edgar Rentaria!". And let's not act like the Cards just let Pujols walk. They made a pretty concerted effort to bring him back at a time when he was one of the best hitters of all time. Foot injuries and age have caught up with him, but they could still be running him out there if LA didn't pay up.
3. What's the downside here? Would you prefer a low A ball lottery ticket? You aren't getting much for Peavy. Why not take a chance on a 29 year old who's had success at the ML level? And he fits a need as a RH bat, and can play LF/RF/1B. The team could move Gomes to a contender, and slide Craig into his roster spot pretty easily.