Red Sox Deadline Discussion
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Plympton91 said:
You don't think it's reasonable to expect Bradley to improve offensively? That's a reasonable judgment based on 357 career plate appearances (which is about a half-year's worth of data)?
It does make me wonder what Bradley is really worth, even given his struggles at the plate. B-ref has him at 0.8 WAR (1.0 dWAR). Fangraphs has him at 0.3 WAR. So even though he can't hit his way out of a paper bag, he is STILL on the positive side of the WAR ledger. Which is, frankly, incredible to me. Even if he never ever becomes even a mediocre offensive player, he seems like the kind of guy that is worth having on a team because of his elite defense and solid base running. Heck, Fangraphs suggests that he's worth $1.4 million on the open market right now!!
Realistic for Bradley going forward? Isn't that a bit of a pessimistic outlook? Bradley could end up being no better than a 4th outfielder on a contender but it's too early to throw in the towel. I love his defense and I still think he could be a .270-.280 hitter in his prime. Right now he is the center fielder of the present and future.Plympton91 said:
As for Betts, he has a different hit tool than Bradley. His trademark is getting on base. If he has a good enough judgement of the strike zone then one would be safe to assume that he could be in the majors right now. Granted there are certain prospects you can't rush and then certain ones who have a complete skill set. Betts strikes me as someone who is complete or will be very shortly. The only thing that concerns me is the lack of power from Mookie. I know not everyone will be Stanton but any indication that he could hit 10-15 bombs in the majors would be nice.
Gradually over the course of several years to the point that he's a .250 / .320 / .400 hitter; sure. Over the next 8 weeks when the Red Sox will still be trying against all odds to get back into playoff contention in 2014, no. No one is denying that he adds value on defense, but you can't win a game 0-0.ivanvamp said:
It makes more sense to let Bradley play and see what he does 2nd half of the season. At 24, there is the potential for his hitting to improve.
Isn't that the same exacy "hitting tool" Bradley was lauded for?Tyrone Biggums said:
Bradley had a .404 OPB during his entire stay in the minors. Right now Betts is at .406.
Betts has been better now at the higher levels, but agsin, ability to get on base was primarily the number 1 talking point as well when JBJ came up. I swear half the ESPN telecasts of that opening NY series were dedecated to his "eye" and "plate discipline".
No. That is fairly lazy.rymflaherty said:
JBJ so in 17.4% of his PAs, and 21% of his ABs. No one thought (or should have thought) that JBJ was a true talent .300 hitter in the majors - he is a .250-.280 hitter, who could pop off a few good/bad (lucky/unlucky) years above and below that. The hope is that he can walk enough, and hit for enough power, to have a high 700 OPS with plus defense -- obviously, the SO rate has increased exponentially in the majors, but if he drops back down to ~22% of his ABs, his BA would be back in the .240-250 range, with enough walks to get to a 325-335 OBP.
Betts SO in 10% PAs /11.9% ABs. He could very well be a TT .300 hitter.
They aren't similar at all in terms of how they get onbase.
In terms of power - Betts has averaged about 15 HRs per 600 PAs in the last year and a half. I find it hard to believe that will continue, but it is an indication.
Joshv02 said:
This is all true, but the post rymflaherty was responding to said
The first sentence may be true--indeed, it seems pretty obvious that it's true--but only in a way that makes the second sentence a non sequitur, because JBJ's trademark in the minors was also getting on base. Even now, it's pretty astonishing how near to respectability his OBP is, considering how utterly futile and overmatched he has looked at the plate.
Eric Wibur says it's time to dump Doubie (and/or Peavy) for a bat: http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2014/06/red_sox_trade_felix_doubront_for_batting.html?p1=Topopage:Carousel_lead_headline
But seriously......
I do wonder how far the Sox are from seeing what Peavy or Doubront might fetch as part of a package. NOT as a white flag, but as a way to give Workman a full-time gig (as others have pointed out RDLR's innings may be limited too much for that this year), and maybe getting some sort of bat in th process.
Trading from a so-called "surplus" of pitching in March may not be a good idea, but it becomes more reasonable towards the middle of the season.
I do wonder how far the Sox are from seeing what Peavy or Doubront might fetch as part of a package. NOT as a white flag, but as a way to give Workman a full-time gig (as others have pointed out RDLR's innings may be limited too much for that this year), and maybe getting some sort of bat in th process.
Trading from a so-called "surplus" of pitching in March may not be a good idea, but it becomes more reasonable towards the middle of the season.
I am thinking they can't be too far away from just giving Peavy away.
Doubront is a harder case. I don't think he is one of our 5 best starters now, but he has some value. I am also concerned re how much he would pi** and moan if he was moved to the pen. He should be a major chip.
Doubront is a harder case. I don't think he is one of our 5 best starters now, but he has some value. I am also concerned re how much he would pi** and moan if he was moved to the pen. He should be a major chip.
I think moving Peavy as quickly as possible is the best move. As more people decide to sell, what you can get in return for him will go down. There's no reason to move him just to move him but if you can get a lottery ticket, right now, would you pull the trigger?
KillerBs said:
I'm always confused by this type of logic. He's not one of the best 5 starters on the Red Sox, he'd get moody if moved to the bullpen, but he supposed to be a "major chip"?
He's a youngish left-handed starter with sporadic success. He's an additional piece, not the key component of a trade package
Does my boy explain why the Sox would move Doubront with the possible exit of Lester pending? I mean, because, a lefty or two in your rotation, well, they are valuable things to have lying around, you know.Don Buddin's GS said:
Just throwing a name out there, so don't jump like a pack of rabid wolves. The Pirates today outrighted Jose Tabata, who has stalled in the Pittsburgh system and now finds himself without a clear path back to a regular role. His contract is relatively cheap, he hits lefties well and is a decent defender. Another name to think about when considering right-handed outfield parts
So, if I have it right, Tabata being outrighted means the Sox could have had him for nothing, if they were prepared to take on his contract -- 4m in 2015, 4.5m in 2016. So much for the burning need to obtain a RH CF/RF. I wonder tho if Tabata can really play CF. If not, and if Victorino returns to a semblance of his former self, but cant play CF either, than I can see the logic in passing on him.
I don't think he can play CF and he's never been a good RF but the Sox are running Holt and Nava out there so maybe Tabata is still an upgrade. I do think that his contract is cheap enough that even if he's nothing more than 4th OF, that would be okay.
Seems like a pretty cheap 25 year old OF with power. Why did every team pass on him? As a LF, he'd be okay, he's got a strong arm and he had an OPS+ of 118 last season as a 24 year old. He's also got some wheels. Sure, you'd like to see some more power, but he seems like a decent young outfielder which is something the Sox are seemingly in great need of.
BosRedSox5 said:
I'd imagine being on the hook for 2 years and $9.25M for a guy with no options who hasn't played well enough to stick on a NL team as a 4th/5th OF has a little something to do with it.
curly2 said:
That makes a lot more sense. Even if he is 25, that's not very useful without work ethic... and if he's older than that then... bah. Probably the smart play for the Pirates to get him off the 40 man and hope he figures it out.
Pete AbrahamVerified account@PeteAbe
#RedSox drop Doubront into bullpen. Workman in rotation. Sounds like they're trying to make a deal to free a roster spot. Doubront maybe
This would be trading Doubront at his lowest value wouldn't it ? Maybe Doubront for Span to the Nationals with Harper coming back and Zim and Werth already in the OF ?
#RedSox drop Doubront into bullpen. Workman in rotation. Sounds like they're trying to make a deal to free a roster spot. Doubront maybe
This would be trading Doubront at his lowest value wouldn't it ? Maybe Doubront for Span to the Nationals with Harper coming back and Zim and Werth already in the OF ?
I'm a bit surprised they wouldn't "audition" Doubront for a couple of starts in the hope of boosting his trade value. Lefty, cost-controller starters, even back-of-rotation guys, should have some value in the trade market. Unless there is something in the works that's still under wraps, in which Doubront is just a piece.
I refuse to dignify anything Wilbur writes with a comment. Abraham is not the most reliable source either.
I refuse to dignify anything Wilbur writes with a comment. Abraham is not the most reliable source either.
Why not sell high on Workman? I love Workman but would hate to sell Doubront at his lowest point.
Agreed that made no sense. Let's sell high on a successful pitcher and keep the guy at his lowest point.Soxfan in Fla said:
Soxfan in Fla said:
46 IP of sub 3 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 as a SP so far.
Numbers aside, he has great mound presence, pounds the strike zone, seems to bring a good plan to the mound every start. His stuff isn't sexy, but the dude gets outs.
I'm wondering if Doubront and a prospect could net Allen Craig. Adams has hit well enough not to sit at 1B and they need to clear out RF for Taveras.
foulkehampshire said:
He's not as good as his numbers suggest, but he's a high floor kind of pitcher. In Workman you are opting for a more reliable bet on a back of the rotation starter, with Doubront you are risking a higher risk bet on a mid rotation or better starter. I'd go with Workman. The Sox are about to see a ton of turnover on the roster. Go with the stable option.
bosockboy said:
It would take someone like Cecchini, I would think. I'm sure they'd start off by asking for Betts or Swihart, but I doubt they accept less than Cecchini. That said, with their pitching woes, maybe they are keen to take something like Doubront, Webster and Coyle.
I'm with you, most players take at least 1,000 at bats before they reach their own level at MLB, that's about 2 seasons so to expect JBJ to excel or hit as he did in MiLB is fool's gold. He has hit in the minors and at least as important is his ability to draw a walk, ie, he has a command of the strike zone. That along with his past success in the minors suggest he's more than likely to eventually succeed as a hitter. I'm sticking with my original statement that he has 1 deserved All Star selection in his future. Most stars take 2 years to emerge, the Mike Trouts and Dwight Goodens are the exception that proves the rule. Also as I've stated numerous times, Ted Williams stated the same thing about not judging pitchers or hitters until they have had the rough equivalent of 2 years in MLB under their belt.ivanvamp said:
Why is that? maybe it's selling high on Workman and they are showcasing him, The Sox have more Starting pitching prospects in the high minors than anyone else and they should/need to make some decisions on some of them going forward, ie,, trade some of them to cover organizational weaknesses or upgrades in order to maximize this strength.Soxfan in Fla said:
I like your Workman assessment and ultimate assessment of what it would take to get Craig. I think his value is overstated by some others here. He has limited power for a firstbaseman or an OF'er. and is already 29 YO. If we had a deeper line-up I'd be alot more intrigued but very shortly we need a 3 /4 type hitter at first or LF. This offense is going to get worse going forward not better as it relates to the third or fourth batter. Copied from Cott's his contract is as follows 14:$2.75M, 15:$5.5M, 16:$9M, 17:$11M, 18:$13M club option. He is interesting and his value is down right now, so I'd consider him, but not for what several here think he's worth.Snodgrass'Muff said:
KillerBs said:
I know that defensive metrics are more advanced now... and there's much, much more to them than the traditional counting stats, however it seems really interesting that Craig has never made an error in the outfield. That's 1,590 innings of OF play without making an error. That seems fairly remarkable IMO. Not only that, but we can also figure that, at least according to the Cardinals, his arm is strong enough to play RF.
If the Red Sox were to go that route, a guy like Craig seems like a good LF for Fenway. A strong arm can hold runners to long singles and there's a lot less real estate there to cover. If range is the problem (it's obviously not his ability to track a flyball or his hands or he'd have been credited with an error right?) then Fenway seems like a great spot for him.
We can also see that in 2011 and 2012 he had lots of power. Even in the minors he was getting a lot of XBH. He's been a 2.3+ WAR player (BBref) despite his defensive shortcomings and he's got no real LHP/RHP split.
Looking at this chart it also might help show that he'd be successful here: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_spray.php?player=501800&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=year&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=13&gFilt=&startDate=01/01/2012&endDate=01/01/2013
In his best years, Craig was a little more of a pull hitter. Now, he's always used the whole field, but in 2011 and 2012 he was a little more of a pull hitter. That could play really well here.
I'm finding myself more and more intrigued with Craig as a LF here. He's got decent OBP skills, the things he does well defensively could play in Fenway and the things he does poorly could be covered up and his bat could wake up in the Friendly Confines. Maybe that's a lot of "ifs" for his contract of 15:$5.5M, 16:$9M, 17:$11M for three years, but honestly, that's not a lot of money and we don't have a lot of OF's coming up. 3/25.5 on an outfielder with Craig's track record for success would be a dream contract even without the 13 million dollar team option in 2018. If there's a match with St. Louis, Craig is the kind of guy I'd like to get in return.
Holt is an interesting option, but this is an extremely rosy depiction of his ability. There's a reason why he is a probable minor leaguer:The Gray Eagle said:
2012: 75 wRC+ at AA; 9.7% walk rate
2013: 97 wRC+ at AA; 9.5% walk rate
His 2014 numbers scream "fluke". I don't see him competing against the unlucky Nava, or even JBJ (who has a 81 wRC+ against lefites). I'd rather acquire two different pieces: Peter Bourjos (87 wRC+ against righties this year, 96 wRC+ for his career, and is a plus defender at CF) from the Cardinals (who need pitching and infield depth NOW) and Seth Smith (165 wRC+ this year, can play RF/LF) from the Padres. The Padres are sellers, and the Cardinals have sufficient outfield depth to trade him. Since both are 2-month rentals, neither should cost much to acquire.
Sure, acquiring Tyler Holt doesn't make sense for a team on a 72-win pace either; he's AAAA filler.Rudy Pemberton said:
Rob Bradford @bradfo 31s
Farrell on @WEEI: Move for Buchholz still to be detemined. Said three options for move - DL, option somebody or trade. Stay tuned
Farrell on @WEEI: Move for Buchholz still to be detemined. Said three options for move - DL, option somebody or trade. Stay tuned
The Red Sox are in 13th place in a 15 team league. No move should be made with an eye towards getting into playoff contention in 2014 besides picking up freely available talent that isn't going to block a young player. The season isn't completely over yet, but moves should be heavily weighted to '15 and beyond at this point. If there's someone that can help this year and improves the long-term prospects for the team, great, but the playoffs are a sub 10% shot and most of those appearances are going to be in the coin flip game. This year is not worth spending resources on anymore. Time to move on to decide whether '15 or '16 is the next target for a contender.Plympton91 said: