PTBNLs named in Benintendi/Cordero trade

OCD SS

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It may be that hitting analogues — swing or plate approach tweaks — are slower to implement. But in recent weeks watching Franchy, I see a rising contact rate, a falling strikeout rate, more hard contact and more hits in the fast-stabilizing stats. And, you know, he's gained 100 points of OPS in four games. I doubt that torrid pace will continue, but if I were running the team, I would give it a few more weeks; if he's still sporting a (I don't know) sub-.600 OPS, then I'd look at optioning him at that point.
I suspect it will all come down to his contact rate. How much of the hand - eye coordination in hitting can teaching actually improve; a lot of it must come down to repetition, which Franchy certainly has had. With pitching teams can go with a fill the box approach even if command is lacking, but I don’t see a corollary on putting the bat to the ball.
 

billy ashley

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I'm a little confused by the calls to send him to Worchester. It doesn't really benefit Cordero, as a project. He's 26, missed a ton of time this Spring, and is approaching the make it or break it years of his development. He has a ceiling of a bat first corner outfielder, and as others notes, his baserunning and adequate defense make him a fine bench guy if he falls short of that.

The offense has been great this season, there is a potential long term solution in the high minors refining his game (Duran). If Cordero doesn't develop, great, Duran can fill in late summer (though that comes with risk). If he does develop, we've got 2/3 the OF solved (Renfroe doesn't look like a starting OF). If he doesn't Duran could potentially be a solution (though he has rough spots in his game, still, as well).

It's also thoroughly bonkers that people are debating whether or not Cordero's exit velocities matter. Of course they do. He's an adequate corner OF with a 30% K rate. The reason he's a thing at all is because he hits the absolutely snot out of the ball. People can point to Wily Mo Pena, all they want, but they forget, Pena had talent, too. There was a reason he stuck around for as long as he did, despite his lack of approach, or defensive ability.

Sometimes these guys figure it out. Other times they don't. But there's a reason Boston took a flier on Cordero.
 

cantor44

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Cordero has never performed well at the major league level. One could look at the nuances of exit velocity, etc., but if those indicators don't manifest as actual production, eventually you have to make decisions based on what is, rather than what could be. It is true he can hit the ball hard sometimes, but another question would be, what is his hard hit ball/pitches seen ratio. He can hit the ball hard because he is very strong. He rarely actually hits the ball though, because, well, he is not a good hitter. He has been a black hole in the line up. And he has options. If he needs further development, AAA is the perfect place, because he can struggle without costing the major league team. Even if his poor performance hasn't really hurt the team's record much to this point, it doesn't matter: the team should be making every single decision within its power, no matter how big or small, to increase the odds of favorable outcomes and hence games won. That is how you win: increase your odds a bit here, and a bit there, and a bit there - as we all know. The organization has several players who can out perform Cordero right now. And since he has options, there is no reasons he should take up any more major league at bats until he has improved as a hitter, or until or unless there are a some injuries and he's needed.
 

BornToRun

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I don’t think I subscribe to the idea that he should be sent down. We’re seeing noticeable improvement in the underlying data even if the results haven’t shown so far. And while it may be the tiniest of small sample sizes, we did just see him launch a moonshot off a guy who was pitching one of the best games of his career. Maybe that’s a stepping stone to building some confidence for the kid and a precursor to more satisfying results that more closely align with the underlying metrics.
 
I don’t think I subscribe to the idea that he should be sent down. We’re seeing noticeable improvement in the underlying data even if the results haven’t shown so far. And while it may be the tiniest of small sample sizes, we did just see him launch a moonshot off a guy who was pitching one of the best games of his career. Maybe that’s a stepping stone to building some confidence for the kid and a precursor to more satisfying results that more closely align with the underlying metrics.
He's not performing at the level of some of the underlying data, but he actually is getting some improvement in his actual results. His May wrc+ is nearly double April and his OPS is 100+ points higher despite a 141 point drop in BABIP.

If you look at May performance it really makes no sense that Franchy is getting all this hate while a player like Marwin is getting much more of a pass. Marwin is barely beating Franchy in OPS, wRC and wOBA despite having a BABIP over 100 points higher.
 

oumbi

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Cordero has never performed well at the major league level. One could look at the nuances of exit velocity, etc., but if those indicators don't manifest as actual production, eventually you have to make decisions based on what is, rather than what could be. It is true he can hit the ball hard sometimes, but another question would be, what is his hard hit ball/pitches seen ratio.

He can hit the ball hard because he is very strong. He rarely actually hits the ball though, because, well, he is not a good hitter. He has been a black hole in the line up. And he has options. If he needs further development, AAA is the perfect place, because he can struggle without costing the major league team. Even if his poor performance hasn't really hurt the team's record much to this point, it doesn't matter: the team should be making every single decision within its power, no matter how big or small, to increase the odds of favorable outcomes and hence games won.

That is how you win: increase your odds a bit here, and a bit there, and a bit there - as we all know. The organization has several players who can out perform Cordero right now. And since he has options, there is no reasons he should take up any more major league at bats until he has improved as a hitter, or until or unless there are a some injuries and he's needed.
On the bolded, I do not think anyone here is arguing otherwise. But lots of people here are saying that using 379 major league at bats is too risky to make a definitive call one way or the other as far as his future.

Next, given SoSH's formatting, paragraphs often make things a bit more readable for many of us.
 

cantor44

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On the bolded, I do not think anyone here is arguing otherwise. But lots of people here are saying that using 379 major league at bats is too risky to make a definitive call one way or the other as far as his future.

Next, given SoSH's formatting, paragraphs often make things a bit more readable for many of us.
True, the sample size is still not that big, so hard to make a firm conclusion about where he might ultimately wind up. And yet ... since he has options, why not work out the kinks in AAA, rather than in a tight pennant race?

Thanks for the tip on SoSh formatting (putting into practice now!)
 
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cantor44

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True, the sample size is still not the big, so hard to make a firm conclusion about where he might ultimately wind up. And yet ... since he has options, why not work out the kinks in AAA, rather than in a tight pennant race?

Thanks for the tip on SoSh formatting (putting into practice now!)
On the bolded, I do not think anyone here is arguing otherwise. But lots of people here are saying that using 379 major league at bats is too risky to make a definitive call one way or the other as far as his future.

Next, given SoSH's formatting, paragraphs often make things a bit more readable for many of us.
Additionally, I don't think the question is IF Cordero can still become a good player. The question is, given that he has options, are there players on the 40 man roster who can currently out perform him; or, overall, is the major league team better served by sending him down, and adding a different player who might contribute immediately in one way or another (even Chavis, in my mind, has speed, hustle, can play all over the diamond ....). I'm not sure keeping a guy with a .501 OPS on the roster is worth it simply because he hits the ball really hard a couple times a month.

That exit velocity might be harbinger of promise ... but that promise, if it's there, can still be developed in Worcester and without costing the major league team. If he was Rule 5, or out of options, or had enough time on his clock that he could decline a demotion, I can see keeping him on the major league roster; but none are true. So ... send him down and let him earn his way back to the bigs.
 

effectivelywild

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The only real reason I can think of too keep him up is if the brain trust thinks that he will develop better up with the big boys rather than in AAA. I agree that he still has potential and promise but he also has been a below replacement player. If he'll develop better in the majors, then its debatable whether or not that alone is enough to keep him up, but otherwise I see no reason why getting him some reps in AAA would have significant disadvantages.
 

soxhop411

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I'm a little confused by the calls to send him to Worchester. It doesn't really benefit Cordero, as a project. He's 26, missed a ton of time this Spring, and is approaching the make it or break it years of his development. He has a ceiling of a bat first corner outfielder, and as others notes, his baserunning and adequate defense make him a fine bench guy if he falls short of that.

The offense has been great this season, there is a potential long term solution in the high minors refining his game (Duran). If Cordero doesn't develop, great, Duran can fill in late summer (though that comes with risk). If he does develop, we've got 2/3 the OF solved (Renfroe doesn't look like a starting OF). If he doesn't Duran could potentially be a solution (though he has rough spots in his game, still, as well).

It's also thoroughly bonkers that people are debating whether or not Cordero's exit velocities matter. Of course they do. He's an adequate corner OF with a 30% K rate. The reason he's a thing at all is because he hits the absolutely snot out of the ball. People can point to Wily Mo Pena, all they want, but they forget, Pena had talent, too. There was a reason he stuck around for as long as he did, despite his lack of approach, or defensive ability.

Sometimes these guys figure it out. Other times they don't. But there's a reason Boston took a flier on Cordero.
He also might be responding to Cora between than they think he might to the team in Worchester.
Can we get the Buchholz "I am an idiot" treatment for this crap please?
I'm going with WOOster these days, they brought it on themselves.
View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1397295196686200838
 

joe dokes

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Much like I have spent 30 years trying to tell my not-Jewish wife how to pronounce kugel. (It's not "Koogel"). Say it the same way you would say wood. Would-wood-kugel-Worcester.
 

Tim Salmon

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Much like I have spent 30 years trying to tell my not-Jewish wife how to pronounce kugel. (It's not "Koogel"). Say it the same way you would say wood. Would-wood-kugel-Worcester.
It's easier if it's written out with diacritical marks, i.e., Wster. Everyone knows how to pronounce the u with the overdot, right?
 

cantor44

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I guess, in the end, the team brass was not convinced quite enough by Cordero's exit velocity to keep him on the ML roster ... I hope they bring up a position player, frankly ...but then again, the bullpen has become wobbly (though there outside help may be necessary) ...
 

Sin Duda

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Okay, I went through the first 5 pages of this thread without finding the date of when the 3 PTBNLs will join the Sox. Does anyone know or has it not been announced? Also, it's pretty funny to see the vitriol in retrospect.

Benintendi will turn 27 in July, makes $X.YM ($A.BM paid by the Sox), has a .709 OPS, 0.4 fWAR (0.8 O, -3.4 D, -0.7 BR) so far in '21, and becomes a free agent the end of '22.

Cordero just got sent down. His numbers: Turns 27 in Sep, makes $0.8M, .502 OPS, -0.3 fWAR (-6.3 O, -0.4 D, 1.3 BR), becomes a free agent in '24.

Winckowski: AA Portland: 4 starts, 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 17/9 K/BB.

3 PTBNLs still coming.
 

chawson

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Cordero just got sent down. His numbers: Turns 27 in Sep, makes $0.8M, .502 OPS, -0.3 fWAR (-6.3 O, -0.4 D, 1.3 BR), becomes a free agent in '24.

Winckowski: AA Portland: 4 starts, 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 17/9 K/BB.

3 PTBNLs still coming.
It’s mentioned upthread, but Cordero’s demotion may result in an extra year of control too.

Re the PTBNLs, it should be in the next couple weeks. On the Mets, the range of prospects roughly matching #7 Khalil Lee has been narrowed some. RHP Matthew Allan (their #3 according to FanGraphs), probably the highest-end prospect we might expect, needs surgery, and Franklyn Kilome (#15), probably the lowest, has been DFA’d.

Here are the guys in between:

3B Mark Vientos - decent start, 21yo in AA, needs to be added to the 40-man this winter
3B Brett Baty - hot start in A+, same age as Vientos but Mets have an extra year of development before they need to protect him
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong - needs surgery on non-throwing arm
RHP JT Ginn - recovery from TJS
OF Alexander Ramirez - is 18
LHP Thomas Szapucki - healthy, good start, almost 25, on 40-man
SS Shervyn Newton - healthy, 45% K rate in A-ball as a 22-year-old
3B/SS Jaylen Palmer - bad start, 22-yo in A ball
RHP Junior Santos - looks healthy, fine, 19yo in A ball
RHP Ryley Gilliam - looks healthy but struggling as a 24-yo in AA, needs to be added to the 40-man this winter
RHP Jose Butto - ranked 19th in their system but some helium this year, good start as a 23-yo in A+

I can only speculate, but my money’s still on Szapucki, a big spin rate guy Bloom is probably into. I’d be plenty happy with Vientos too, who would likely be currency for a future trade.

Much harder to do on the Royals. I had liked Seuly Matias but he’s been dreadful and I’m not sure the Red Sox fan base can handle another high-strikeout power prospect.
 
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shanks

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Okay, I went through the first 5 pages of this thread without finding the date of when the 3 PTBNLs will join the Sox. Does anyone know or has it not been announced? Also, it's pretty funny to see the vitriol in retrospect.

Benintendi will turn 27 in July, makes $X.YM ($A.BM paid by the Sox), has a .709 OPS, 0.4 fWAR (0.8 O, -3.4 D, -0.7 BR) so far in '21, and becomes a free agent the end of '22.

Cordero just got sent down. His numbers: Turns 27 in Sep, makes $0.8M, .502 OPS, -0.3 fWAR (-6.3 O, -0.4 D, 1.3 BR), becomes a free agent in '24.

Winckowski: AA Portland: 4 starts, 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 17/9 K/BB.

3 PTBNLs still coming.
been waiting for someone to mention this. as i remember, chaim got a month after the minor league began to evaluate and make his ptnl choices. seems like that date is coming up quick. 2 from KC and 1 from the mets (k.lee) which should be the one to really look forward to seeing.

side note: like most who’ve followed/heard the reports on franchys tools, i’m looking forward to him straightening out w/ some time in AAA and hopefully contributing soon back on the big league roster.
 

nvalvo

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Okay, I went through the first 5 pages of this thread without finding the date of when the 3 PTBNLs will join the Sox. Does anyone know or has it not been announced? Also, it's pretty funny to see the vitriol in retrospect.
Per Chaim Bloom in a Spring Training WEEI interview, it was supposed to be "about a month" after the minor league seasons started. So... soon?
 

ngruz25

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It’s mentioned upthread, but Cordero’s demotion may result in an extra year of control too.

Re the PTBNLs, it should be in the next couple weeks. On the Mets, the range of prospects roughly matching #7 Khalil Lee has been narrowed some. RHP Matthew Allan (their #3 according to FanGraphs), probably the highest-end prospect we might expect, needs surgery, and Franklyn Kilome (#15), probably the lowest, has been DFA’d.

Here are the guys in between:

3B Mark Vientos - decent start, 21yo in AA, needs to be added to the 40-man this winter
3B Brett Baty - hot start in A+, same age as Vientos but Mets have an extra year of development before they need to protect him
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong - needs surgery on non-throwing arm
RHP JT Ginn - recovery from TJS
OF Alexander Ramirez - is 18
LHP Thomas Szapucki - healthy, good start, almost 25, on 40-man
SS Shervyn Newton - healthy, 45% K rate in A-ball as a 22-year-old
3B/SS Jaylen Palmer - bad start, 22-yo in A ball
RHP Junior Santos - looks healthy, fine, 19yo in A ball
RHP Ryley Gilliam - looks healthy but struggling as a 24-yo in AA, needs to be added to the 40-man this winter
RHP Jose Butto - ranked 19th in their system but some helium this year, good start as a 23-yo in A+

I can only speculate, but my money’s still on Szapucki, a big spin rate guy Bloom is probably into. I’d be plenty happy with Vientos too, who would likely be currency for a future trade.

Much harder to do on the Royals. I had liked Seuly Matias but he’s been dreadful and I’m not sure the Red Sox fan base can handle another high-strikeout power prospect.
The Mets also sent the Sox Winckowski, so we should be looking for a prospect that equals Lee minus whatever value you assign Winckowski. I don't think that changes the calculus all that much, but it's something to keep in mind.

Likewise, I have no idea what to expect from the Royals. I'd guess one "warm body" type guy to help fill some organizational gap for the Sox (too old for level type guy) and then one true lottery ticket (low level guy with some interesting tools).
 

nvalvo

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The Mets also sent the Sox Winckowski, so we should be looking for a prospect that equals Lee minus whatever value you assign Winckowski. I don't think that changes the calculus all that much, but it's something to keep in mind.

Likewise, I have no idea what to expect from the Royals. I'd guess one "warm body" type guy to help fill some organizational gap for the Sox (too old for level type guy) and then one true lottery ticket (low level guy with some interesting tools).
Winckowski just had his fifth straight excellent start this afternoon for Portland, a one hit, 7 IP effort that brings his ERA down to 1.33.
 

oumbi

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Winckowski just had his fifth straight excellent start this afternoon for Portland, a one hit, 7 IP effort that brings his ERA down to 1.33.
SoxProspects has him as their Player of the Day.

Player of the Day: With the lack of offense throughout the system on Saturday, Josh Winckowski stood out in a big way on the mound. The No. 27 prospect in the system, who came from the Mets in the trade that brought Franchy Cordero to Boston and sent Andrew Benintendi to Kansas City, lowered his ERA to 1.33 in his first season in Boston with his six shutout innings in Portland on Saturday. He has struck out 26 batters in 27 innings of work so far in 2021. He also helped lower his WHIP to 0.89 as he retired the final 10 Yard Goats he faced on the day.

http://news.soxprospects.com/2021/05/cup-of-coffee-winckowski-punches-out.html
 

mauf

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Due to the Mets’ injury situation, Khalil Lee has been pressed into service. To say Lee has looked overmatched in his first major-league action would be an understatement — he has struck out in 13 of his 18 plate appearances and has swung and missed on nearly a quarter of the pitches he has seen.

As I said before, Dayton Moore has a tremendous track record of not trading away young players who amount to anything, so I loved Chaim’s decision to flip Lee to the Mets for a PTBNL. I’m certainly not loving that move any less now, even as I’m starting to get impatient to find out who that PTBNL is — Lee was reasonably well-regarded, so I expect the player from the Mets to be significant. (The two PTBNLs from the Royals will presumably be flotsam.)
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Due to the Mets’ injury situation, Khalil Lee has been pressed into service. To say Lee has looked overmatched in his first major-league action would be an understatement — he has struck out in 13 of his 18 plate appearances and has swung and missed on nearly a quarter of the pitches he has seen.

As I said before, Dayton Moore has a tremendous track record of not trading away young players who amount to anything, so I loved Chaim’s decision to flip Lee to the Mets for a PTBNL. I’m certainly not loving that move any less now, even as I’m starting to get impatient to find out who that PTBNL is — Lee was reasonably well-regarded, so I expect the player from the Mets to be significant. (The two PTBNLs from the Royals will presumably be flotsam.)
Royals beat writer says the KC PTBNL could be named soon:

If they are even lotto ticket reliever-type prospects (like Wallace from the Pillar trade), I’ll be happy. So far Chaim seems to have shown a knack for getting something interesting even with the “extra” pieces in deals.

Would assume the decision on the Mets player would be at the same or similar time.
 

johnnywayback

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So let's take a wild-ass guess at these PTBNL.

@chawson had a nice analysis of the Mets possibilities upthread -- I liked Szapucki, too, but he's on the 40-man and the Sox have a glut that's only getting gluttier in the off-season, so let's look elsewhere. My guess is Junior Santos -- kind of a Dellin Betances starter kit, a huge kid (6'8") with a good fastball and some physical projection remaining. MLB Pipeline cites his "massive extension," which is part of what makes Whitlock so effective, so that seems like something Bloom might be attracted to, as is the plus spin on his slider. And he didn't pitch last year (he's just 19), which means it would stand to reason that he'd be the sort of guy on a "let's see him and decide" list.

From the Royals: I'll guess Fangraphs #21 Grant Gambrell (an unpolished pitcher who seems to have gotten in better shape during the layoff) and #23 Darryl Collins (outfielder with a good hit tool and a bit of speed/athleticism but not as much power as you'd think if you looked at him). They both seem like guys they might have seen and thought they could take to the next level with some mechanical tweaks. The Royals also have a LOT of fringy arms who might be appealing if the 40-man crunch isn't an issue (Jon Heasley, Zach Haake, Yefri Del Rosario).
 

amfox1

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From MLB Pipeline:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mets/freddy-valdez-682639

Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 29 international prospect during the 2018 signing period, Valdez inked a deal for $1.45 million with the Mets that July 2. He was big for the class then and that remains the case as he stands in at a listed 6-foot-3, 212 pounds. The Dominican Republic native showed off some power and ability to take a walk in his first taste of the pros in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, hitting .268/.357/.432 over 57 games. That prompted a first stateside move to the Gulf Coast League that season, and he returned to the U.S. for the instructional league last fall.

The Mets like Valdez for his above-average hand speed that can result in some impressive exit velocities when he makes a solid connection. He also shows an impressive eye at the plate for someone his age, though he can get too passive at times. His swing can also get long, which holds down the overall hit tool. Valdez is a solid runner but is decidedly a corner outfielder, due to his size and struggles at times with routes and jumps. His arm is a potential above-average tool, though that too will take work as he works on his release to make the most of his arm strength.

There was plenty to build on for Valdez in 2020, and that will continue to be the case for him when he returns to game play in 2021. The power and arm make him a standard corner-outfield candidate at the top level, and the other holes in his game could be improved with experience.
 

DeadlySplitter

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-new-york-mets/

18. Freddy Valdez, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYM)
Valdez is an absolute behemoth of a corner outfield prospect who is likely to end up in the Franmil Reyes size/strength area at maturity, though right now he’s built a little more athletically than that. This guy makes the bat look like a toothpick in his hands and he has thunderous raw power with pretty crude feel for contact coming from a swing that scouts don’t really like. His 2019 exit velos are below what you’d probably guess from someone this big and strong who performed the way he did in the 2019 DSL (certainly they’re below what I’d guess). I think that’s more an in-game contact quality indicator, but a front office source from a team that seems to like contact-oriented players told me they thought Valdez should be higher here. I’m more inclined to move a guy like this after he performs on paper and I think Valdez is physically mature enough to be tested in full-season ball this year. (Fall Instructional League)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Interesting. Looks like a younger, Franchy type! Seems like decent value. Was hoping for pitching, personally.
Interestingly enough, they both had 270 PA at age 17. (All 270 in the DSL for Franchy, 257 in the DSL for Freddy, 13 in the GCL). They also both had 230 At bats. Franchy had 37bb/73k. Freddy had 31bb/49k. Freddy had 25 extra base hits compared to Franchy's 16. Franchy had 14 stole bases in 18 attepts, Freddy 6 in 8.

Freddy struck out considerably less and hit for more power, which bodes well.