PTBNLs named in Benintendi/Cordero trade

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
43,576
De La Rosa looks like an interesting lotto ticket. Those numbers in 2019 were as a 16/17 year old.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
5,515
The back of your computer
https://www.royalsreview.com/2020/6/22/21296045/better-know-a-prospect-luis-de-la-rosa

In 2019, the Dominican Summer League Royals won the first Dominican League title in club history. One of the members of the group, pitcher Luis De La Rosa, was a top arm despite being the second-youngest player on the team at 16 years old. Logging the third-most innings on the team, De La Rosa posted a 2.33 ERA in 11 starts with 52 strikeouts and seven walks. His WHIP of 0.905 was the best among pitchers who threw over 30 innings and his 12.1 SO/9 was the highest of any starter on the team. In addition to his high strikeout numbers, opposing hitters only managed to slash .197/.233/.254 off of De La Rosa with a line drive percentage of 16.7% and no home runs.

De La Rosa signed with Kansas City back on July 2nd, 2018, at just 15 years old for $147,500.
Baseball America praised his “pitchability” for his lack of experience on the mound and young age.

“De la Rosa has an array of positive projection indicators, with some of that projection already starting to bear out,” Baseball America Senior Writer Ben Badler said last year. “A former shortstop who moved to the mound before signing, De La Rosa is a bouncy athlete who has grown two inches to 6-foot-2, 175 pounds with a fastball that has also grown since signing. He’s now reaching the low-90s, with loose, easy arm action and the projection for more velocity to come. For someone without much experience on the mound, De La Rosa has shown surprising pitchability, with a slider and an advanced changeup for his age.”

After his first three outings in his 2019 campaign, De La Rosa torched his opponents over his next nine appearances. In 31 innings, the right-hander allowed three runs on 19 hits (0.87 ERA) with 43 strikeouts and five walks. His best performance came against the DSL Athletics when he struck out seven over a career-high five perfect innings. During the final two months of the season, De La Rosa faced 106 batters. Of those batters, only two managed to record an extra-base hit.

Luis De La Rosa may not pop up on the Royals Top-30 prospect list for a few years, but there’s no question the young right-hander has made a name for himself in front of the organization. With his ability to throw in the low 90s with command and harness an advanced change-up as a 17-year-old, the potential is certainly there for De La Rosa. Whether he maximizes it or not will be something to keep an eye on moving forward.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
17,823
Gambrell was a 3rd round pick in 2019. He signed for $647,500. He's had mediocre results to date but in a sss (49.2ip, 18bb/46k, 10 HRA).
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
3,445
Somerville, MA
5 years ago today James Shields was traded from the Padres to the White Sox for a return that included the #30 ranked international prospect in his class. Since Valdez is ranked #29 in his class I’m just going to assume he turns out a little better than Fernando Tatis Jr.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
17,823
https://www.pitcherlist.com/dynasty-kansas-city-royals-2020-preseason-top-50-prospects/

Grant Gambrell is a big righty (6’4″, 225 lbs) drafted out of Oregon State in 2019. His fastball isn’t overpowering, but reports say it moves with good sink, and he has a slider/changeup that grade out to at least average as well. He was hit hard in his pro debut to the tune of a 6.67 ERA in 27 innings, but there’s still upside here for a big league starter.
https://www.royalsreview.com/2020/1/16/21066904/looking-at-the-best-pitches-among-royals-prospects
Some very vague info about the spin rates on his fastball, the grade on his curve, and the spin rate on his curve.

https://www.milb.com/news/pioneer-notes-grant-gambrell-309536416
This article suggests he sits around 92-95 and that location is key for him.
 

RoDaddy

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2002
2,774
Albany area, NY
Valdes went from 13 in a better rated system (Mets) to 29 in ours?

Overall, a decent - and maybe much better - haul although 10D's .351 obp would look real good leading off for the Sox right now
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
17,823
Valdes went from 13 in a better rated system (Mets) to 29 in ours?

Overall, a decent - and maybe much better - haul although 10D's .351 obp would look real good leading off for the Sox right now
The top prospects are the ones that matter.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,353
Rogers Park
So...

Benintendi to KC for:

Khalil Lee | OF in MLB/AAA
Franchy Cordero | OF in MLB/AAA
Grant Gambrell | SP in high A
Luis De La Rosa | SP in DSL

Khalil Lee to NYM for:

Josh Winckowski | SP in AA
Freddy Valdez | OF in DSL
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,353
Rogers Park
Gotta say, Luis De La Rosa looks to have waaaaaaay more ceiling than anyone I expected to be coming back from KC as one of the PTBNLs. Everyone knows these teenagers have a long way to go to and so much can go wrong, but 52 strikeouts against 7 walks in 38 2/3 innings pops off the page a bit.
 

lurker42

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
161
Beni would sure look nice in the leadoff spot right now. Unless one of these lotto tickets hit we lost this trade.
Welcome to pink. Yes, I'm that old.

So I add value here: I have been saying since the first week of the season that the leadoff spot is a problem. Kike Hernandez is a useful player, but his OBP (this season or career) does not support the idea of batting him leadoff. This team desperately needs a .340+ OBP hitter to bat at the top of the lineup. Maybe Santana can be that guy, but I'm still beating the drum for bringing in Starling Marte and batting him 2nd behind Verdugo.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Welcome to pink. Yes, I'm that old.

So I add value here: I have been saying since the first week of the season that the leadoff spot is a problem. Kike Hernandez is a useful player, but his OBP (this season or career) does not support the idea of batting him leadoff. This team desperately needs a .340+ OBP hitter to bat at the top of the lineup. Maybe Santana can be that guy, but I'm still beating the drum for bringing in Starling Marte and batting him 2nd behind Verdugo.
Two time GG center fielder would and a decent bat would help on multiple fronts. About $8 million remaining on this year's contract could be and issue. Missed time this year with a rib fracture, not sure how he's been since returning.
 

oumbi

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2006
3,526
Beni would sure look nice in the leadoff spot right now. Unless one of these lotto tickets hit we lost this trade.
If we open ourselves to questions such as this, we also should ask other questions and place the trade in the context of the 2020 season to avoid the fallacy of using 20/20 hindsight to judge these things.

- At the end of 2020 season, when Benintendi was batting .103 with an OPS of .442, I am sure the Sox leadership asked "will he look nice in the lead off spot in 2021?"
- Given that his numbers overall had declined for two straight years, would Benintendi look nice in the lead off spot in the future?
- Since Bloom has made a priority out of improving the minor league talent pipeline, will the return for trading Benintendi prove greater than his contributions for the next 3-5 years?
- Shouldn't we, at SoSH, at least wait a bit to see whether any of these new players work out before casting final judgement?
- The Sox might also have asked, can we pick up a "Beni-substitute" from somewhere, someone who would make up for his projected production? And maybe we even save money on this replacement during a year when the Sox were maybe not expected to be a strong team?
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
We’ll sure, if you’re going to take a well measured, rational look at the overall transaction…

I’m not exactly thrilled with this overall, mostly based on the seeming ranking inequity between Lee and what the Mets gave up, but he Sox we’re almost certainly looking for players who didn’t need to be in the 40-man, which probably limited the pool somewhat…
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,324
We’ll sure, if you’re going to take a well measured, rational look at the overall transaction…

I’m not exactly thrilled with this overall, mostly based on the seeming ranking inequity between Lee and what the Mets gave up, but he Sox we’re almost certainly looking for players who didn’t need to be in the 40-man, which probably limited the pool somewhat…
I think the inequity can be explained as the Sox liked Winckowski more than his ranking indicated. I say this because a) they took him right away instead of as a PTBNL, and b) something seems to have clicked for him based on his early results this year. Reasonable to infer that they saw something in him and thought they could level him up with a simple tweak or two.

Basically, for two years of Benintendi, the Sox got five players, four of whom have a ceiling where you could imagine them "winning" the trade all on their own (Gambrell, I think, has a lower ceiling and even if he reaches it I don't know that it's high enough to match Benintendi's value). There's definitely an outcome in play where Benintendi returns somewhat to form and we missed out on two years of a 2-WAR outfielder we could have used, but I'll put my money on at least one of [Cordero pulls it together and is a more dynamic player with an extra year of control, Winckowski develops into a 4th starter, Valdez becomes a slightly more productive version of Cordero with six years of control, LDLR was onto something in the DSL and is seen as a high-ceiling starter prospect this time next year].
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,764
Portland
I think the inequity can be explained as the Sox liked Winckowski more than his ranking indicated. I say this because a) they took him right away instead of as a PTBNL, and b) something seems to have clicked for him based on his early results this year. Reasonable to infer that they saw something in him and thought they could level him up with a simple tweak or two.

Basically, for two years of Benintendi, the Sox got five players, four of whom have a ceiling where you could imagine them "winning" the trade all on their own (Gambrell, I think, has a lower ceiling and even if he reaches it I don't know that it's high enough to match Benintendi's value). There's definitely an outcome in play where Benintendi returns somewhat to form and we missed out on two years of a 2-WAR outfielder we could have used, but I'll put my money on at least one of [Cordero pulls it together and is a more dynamic player with an extra year of control, Winckowski develops into a 4th starter, Valdez becomes a slightly more productive version of Cordero with six years of control, LDLR was onto something in the DSL and is seen as a high-ceiling starter prospect this time next year].
Right. To me Winckowski (and the $$) isn't being talked about enough. If you get two major league minimum wage guys who are contributors you can spend the 4-ish million in savings for another useful player. That's not nothing when you are up against the threshold. Margins are a thing now - even with big market teams that pro-Benintendi guys are disregarding. You can add a decent rental for that price. I'm happy Beni has found his bat, but his defense is not trending in the right direction.
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,493
Missing from all this is that Benintendi still can’t hit lefties at all, making him functionally a platoon player. He’s got a .520 OPS against them this season, which is even worse than he hit them for us.

The Royals are a good team for him to hide that weakness. The AL Central only has four LHP starters (Happ, Boyd, Rodón and Keuchel) outside of KC. There are at least twice as many lefty starters in Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa and New York.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
43,576
Kiké is a hot streak away from matching Beni’s output, just as Renfroe has done since May. Combined with Duran later in the summer I think there is a pretty decent chance we get to a point where you tip your cap, move on, and look forward to the prospects developing regardless of how Beni is doing.

Since “missing out on” Graterol and swapping in Downs and Wong, Chaim has added a ton of interesting depth up and down the system mostly at the cost of rentals, players that wouldn’t re-sign anyway, and nothing (Whitlock, Arroyo, etc) and so many of his “little” moves have had the kind of impact that has me excited every time he adds a player.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,353
Rogers Park
If we open ourselves to questions such as this, we also should ask other questions and place the trade in the context of the 2020 season to avoid the fallacy of using 20/20 hindsight to judge these things.

- At the end of 2020 season, when Benintendi was batting .103 with an OPS of .442, I am sure the Sox leadership asked "will he look nice in the lead off spot in 2021?"
- Given that his numbers overall had declined for two straight years, would Benintendi look nice in the lead off spot in the future?
- Since Bloom has made a priority out of improving the minor league talent pipeline, will the return for trading Benintendi prove greater than his contributions for the next 3-5 years?
- Shouldn't we, at SoSH, at least wait a bit to see whether any of these new players work out before casting final judgement?
- The Sox might also have asked, can we pick up a "Beni-substitute" from somewhere, someone who would make up for his projected production? And maybe we even save money on this replacement during a year when the Sox were maybe not expected to be a strong team?
Also (and this is really just a restatement of your last point) this is only a problem at all because our entire starting rotation is in the top-100 of the fWAR pitcher leaderboard, which was not at all the expectation when that trade was made.

It would have been GM malpractice if Bloom had made decisions on what to do with outfielders with two years of control left, whose arb awards were no longer justified by their expected performance on the assumption that we were going to contend in what looked like the toughest division in the sport with a rotation of Nate Eovaldi, a guy coming off COVID and myocarditis, a guy whose arm injuries had limited him to less than 200 IP since 2015, a guy who sucked in Philadelphia, and good-for-a-fifth-starter Martín Perez. As it's turned out, all five of those guys have pitched like 2/3 starters, and we have one of the better rotations in the game.

We're only concerned with win-now considerations like leadoff production hitting because we're unexpectedly in a pennant race. If, let's say, Richards had never gotten straightened out and Perez was mediocre, we would have a record like New York's (31-28), and we'd be saying that the team was the .500ish squad we expected, and still having an expensive .780 OPS LF would not make much difference. We'd be thrilled to add young players with the upside of De La Rosa and Valdez.

So in a way, the criticism of this move is a consequence of how successful a bunch of Bloom's other moves have been.

Kiké is a hot streak away from matching Beni’s output, just as Renfroe has done since May. Combined with Duran later in the summer I think there is a pretty decent chance we get to a point where you tip your cap, move on, and look forward to the prospects developing regardless of how Beni is doing.

Since “missing out on” Graterol and swapping in Downs and Wong, Chaim has added a ton of interesting depth up and down the system mostly at the cost of rentals, players that wouldn’t re-sign anyway, and nothing (Whitlock, Arroyo, etc) and so many of his “little” moves have had the kind of impact that has me excited every time he adds a player.
Using the SoxProspects top-60 and not including the June draft (which added 10, 18 and 27), Bloom has added our number 2, 6, 17, 19, 21, 22, 24, 29, 30, and 41 by trade and Rule V drafts, and I'd imagine a few of the guys from this trade will slot in there somewhere in the back of the top 30, too. Beyond the top guys like Downs and Seabold, we've also really thickened out the system with pretty good prospects.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I think the inequity can be explained as the Sox liked Winckowski more than his ranking indicated. I say this because a) they took him right away instead of as a PTBNL, and b) something seems to have clicked for him based on his early results this year. Reasonable to infer that they saw something in him and thought they could level him up with a simple tweak or two.
I concede that I’m using outside rankings more than anyone in any other teams are, but given how much we knew the Mets liked Lee, and given their respective rankings we were looking for a higher rated player as the PTBNL.
Basically, for two years of Benintendi, the Sox got five players, four of whom have a ceiling where you could imagine them "winning" the trade all on their own (Gambrell, I think, has a lower ceiling and even if he reaches it I don't know that it's high enough to match Benintendi's value). There's definitely an outcome in play where Benintendi returns somewhat to form and we missed out on two years of a 2-WAR outfielder we could have used, but I'll put my money on at least one of [Cordero pulls it together and is a more dynamic player with an extra year of control, Winckowski develops into a 4th starter, Valdez becomes a slightly more productive version of Cordero with six years of control, LDLR was onto something in the DSL and is seen as a high-ceiling starter prospect this time next year].
I think the odds of any of the minor leaguers actually reaching a higher ceiling the Beni are pretty slim, given how far away they are. I think there’s a higher chance for Franchy, but I think you also have to allow for Beni putting up a much more valuable season breakout/ return to form. Overall this is still a reasonable return and we really should be looking at the move in aggregate from how Bloom has been adding talent in what I think most of us expected to be a less competitive season.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
22,205
I concede that I’m using outside rankings more than anyone in any other teams are, but given how much we knew the Mets liked Lee, and given their respective rankings we were looking for a higher rated player as the PTBNL.

I think the odds of any of the minor leaguers actually reaching a higher ceiling the Beni are pretty slim, given how far away they are. I think there’s a higher chance for Franchy, but I think you also have to allow for Beni putting up a much more valuable season breakout/ return to form. Overall this is still a reasonable return and we really should be looking at the move in aggregate from how Bloom has been adding talent in what I think most of us expected to be a less competitive season.
Even now, as we're talking wistfully about Benintendi, he's a slightly above league-average platoon LF. That he would "look good" on the Sox at this moment is really beside the point.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Even now, as we're talking wistfully about Benintendi, he's a slightly above league-average platoon LF. That he would "look good" on the Sox at this moment is really beside the point.
Let’s be clear, I’m not talking wistfully about Benni, I was hoping for a stronger return for Lee.

I also caught a scouting report about Lee that came down to “platoon OFer”, so it’s probably safe to say that even if the Mets were high on him, they weren’t high enough to be looking to swap their higher rated prospects.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
8,929
Let’s be clear, I’m not talking wistfully about Benni, I was hoping for a stronger return for Lee.

I also caught a scouting report about Lee that came down to “platoon OFer”, so it’s probably safe to say that even if the Mets were high on him, they weren’t high enough to be looking to swap their higher rated prospects.
Yeah, people on this thread were talking about the value of Lee and how the PTBNL were going to be good as a result of him being such a valuable prospect, but the bloom must have been off that rose, because these PTBNL are just like all the past PTBNL, guys with a little something interesting about them but not close to top prospects. Of course it's always good to get more prospects in the system, so I'm not complaining.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
58,038
I said it earlier in this thread and others have said it too, Lee's value is lower because he had to be placed on the 40 man roster right away, whereas the players BOS got didn't. NY had a situation like this when they traded Sonny Grey, they got Shed Long from the Reds but he also had to be on the 40 man right away, so they traded him immediately to SEA for Josh Stowers who was less valuable but was years away from rule 5 eligibility.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,353
Rogers Park
Lee is a 23 year old with a 1.000 OPS and more walks than strikeouts in AAA; I think there's still a fair amount of value there.

I think Jon Abbey has bingo with the roster situation dampening the return. But probably not dampening it too much. If we'd wanted to keep Lee, all we'd have needed to do was DFA Marcus Wilson, which wouldn't have downgraded our depth too terribly, but it would have made Lee sixth on our OF depth chart.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
17,823
Last 18 for Beni: .323/.368/.565, .348 BAbip. 68 PA, 4bb/13k, 1 double, 1 triple, 4 HRs. Season: .288/.345/.428. On pace for about a 3 WAR season.

Prior to that he was hitting .274/.335/.370 with 5 doubles, 3 HRs in 161 PA. Not including last year, his ISO is still at a career low .140 but it's on the climb. It's also a far cry from .096.

Exit Velocity is back up to 88.4, which happens to be his career average and the MLB average this season. His hard hit % is at a career high 43.4% but his LD% is at a career low 22.9%.

Vs R: .313/.374/.476 in 173 PA, 15bb/32k
vs L: ..230/.273/.311 in 66 PA, 3bb/12k.

3 does not make a trend but just for fun: Odd year Beni

2017: .776 OPS
2019. .774 OPS
2021. .773 OPS

It's too bad last year his OPS wasn't .830 something. (.835, ,.830, .442).

I don't know if him being a 3 WAR player rather than a 2 WAR player changes the equation for some.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
17,823
Grant Gambrell made his first appearance in the Sox system today.

Was assigned to Greenville, currently at 5.0 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 1 HRA, 1bb/1k. 9 groundouts, 4 flyouts.
 

burstnbloom

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 12, 2005
2,288
Franchy is raking in Worcester sporting a 1.232 OPS with a 23% k rate and 14% walk rate in 64 PAs. It’s hard to forget this guy hasn’t really played much the last two seasons and then had an abbreviated spring training. There’s still hope here that he gets it together and becomes a decent player. His start in Worcester is promising.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
40,399

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
17,823
Combined across AAA/MLB, Cordero is now hitting .272/.344/.481 in 181 PA with 18bb/54k.

In 17 AAA games Cordero has
4 games where he got on base at least 4 times
4 games with 3 hits
12 games he got on base at least twice
9 games with 2 hits
3 games with no hits
1 game where he failed to reach base at all

To see the 2 lines right next to each other:
Boston 34 games, 102 PA, 17 hits, 6 doubles, 0 triple, 1 HR, 6bb/37k. .178/.228/.274. 36.3% K rate, 5.9% BB rate
Woosox 17 games, 79 PA, 27 hits, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 5 HR, 12bb/17k. .403/.494/.776. 21.5% K rate, 15.2% BB rate

His OBP in AAA is almost equal to his OPS in the Majors (.494 to .501). Ridiculous.
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
6,897
New York City
Combined across AAA/MLB, Cordero is now hitting .272/.344/.481 in 181 PA with 18bb/54k.

In 17 AAA games Cordero has
4 games where he got on base at least 4 times
4 games with 3 hits
12 games he got on base at least twice
9 games with 2 hits
3 games with no hits
1 game where he failed to reach base at all

To see the 2 lines right next to each other:
Boston 34 games, 102 PA, 17 hits, 6 doubles, 0 triple, 1 HR, 6bb/37k. .178/.228/.274. 36.3% K rate, 5.9% BB rate
Woosox 17 games, 79 PA, 27 hits, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 5 HR, 12bb/17k. .403/.494/.776. 21.5% K rate, 15.2% BB rate

His OBP in AAA is almost equal to his OPS in the Majors (.494 to .501). Ridiculous.
Which basically means he is a classic quadruple-A guy (unless his start in Boston this year was just bad luck, about which I have my doubts). Which is ok except that he is not a very good fielder and realistically can only play LF or DH, so the Sox are always going to prefer having a Santana/Arroyo type on the 26-man unless Cordero is hitting so well that they basically have no choice but to have him on the ML roster.