PTBNLs named in Benintendi/Cordero trade

YTF

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I think your sample choice is directed by your presumed narrative. Is your point is that the Sox won't continue to run him out there because their history is to move on from players who are clearly through (and Ellsbury is just for reference)? Unless that mandated comes from the ownership group, wouldn't we be better off getting a list of players that TB cut and put out to pasture in the last 5 years or so? Franchy's narrative has to be different; a more usefull comparison would be players from across the league who came up from the minors and were absolutely terrible, and how much rope they were given before they were sent down to the minors. Maybe we're lucky and there are some older players in that mix.

I think Franchy is as much a lottery ticket in this deal as some of the other players; Bloom banked on his advanced contract numbers (and contract/ options/ extra year of control) as a better fit than Benintendi, but I expect that the real prize will be the Mets PTBNL (and salary relief from Ben10). Franchy is still hitting the ball really hard, he's just not showing the improved contact rates we hoped might be portended by last year's small sample. As we're looking at the advanced numbers sometimes we'll get a player who turns it around like Pivetta, and other times it will be more of a project...

I still think about Wily Mo Pena in comparison to Franchy; Wily Mo's development was derailed by his MLB contract that pulled him into the majors well before he was ready. Franchy can go down, but there were no minor leagues last year, and the fact that they started late this year meant that if he was going to get the reps to work on his swing it had to be at the MLB level. That is just not ideal for anyone hoping to improve (to say nothing of doing it in this offensive environment). I think he'd already be down in other years, and this year some (in)opportune injuries forced the Sox's hand a bit. It's also more glaring as the Sox are in contention, and based on the thread title and responses to where you first posted this data, it wasn't really expected by many of us. With the arrival of Santana, I expect that he'll wind up in Worchester relatively soon, but I don't think it will mean he's out of baseball.
Well thought out and nicely put. A lot of people here see this as Benetendi for Cordero or Benitendi for the prospects, but it's Benintendi for all of the above. There is every reason in the world to want Franchy off the big league roster ATM, but zero reason to think his career is over at this point. He's got an option left and as OCD pointed out there was no minor league season last year. The minors are for development and I'm not convinced that Cordero is done developing. Best case scenario with Cordero is that he becomes a useful player for the Sox or shows enough improvement in his time in WOOster that he becomes a player that other teams might be interested in. Perhaps neither happens, but there's no reason to come to that conclusion just yet.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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He's a lottery ticket at this point, as are the PTBNLs. Lottery tickets have some value, but most of them end up being worthless in the end. I think that sometimes gets forgotten or ignored here at prospect-obsessed SoSH.

And a lottery ticket is of little value to this team right now if we really think we're playoff contenders. Hard to see any reason to be wasting a roster spot on Franchy right now.
 

richgedman'sghost

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He's a lottery ticket at this point, as are the PTBNLs. Lottery tickets have some value, but most of them end up being worthless in the end. I think that sometimes gets forgotten or ignored here at prospect-obsessed SoSH.

And a lottery ticket is of little value to this team right now if we really think we're playoff contenders. Hard to see any reason to be wasting a roster spot on Franchy right now.
Who would you call up in his place? Duran just got to triple A and now is off to play for the Olympic team. He will probably go down when Christian Arroyo is ready to come back from his injury. Frenchy actually had a couple of hits yesterday.
 

Rovin Romine

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Who would you call up in his place? Duran just got to triple A and now is off to play for the Olympic team. He will probably go down when Christian Arroyo is ready to come back from his injury. Frenchy actually had a couple of hits yesterday.
Anyone who can hit including Duran. Or anyone who can steal a base as a pinch runner. We have Verdugo, Renfroe, Hernandez, Gonzales, Santana, and JD (if need be.)

Franchy's OPS is .464. Cora keeps putting him in the line-up though. It's managerial malpractice.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Anyone who can hit including Duran. Or anyone who can steal a base as a pinch runner. We have Verdugo, Renfroe, Hernandez, Gonzales, Santana, and JD (if need be.)

Franchy's OPS is .464. Cora keeps putting him in the line-up though. It's managerial malpractice.
Right! Can you imagine their record if he had been playing someone else in that spot?
 

Rovin Romine

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Right! Can you imagine their record if he had been playing someone else in that spot?
Cordero is a putrid, appalling, joke of a player at the plate.

And yes, all the games actually count at the end of the season, no matter how hot a team is at any given point.

Ten years ago the Sox lost a post-season berth to the Rays by one game. Mike Cameron has 94 at bats with a .477 OPS. How important was it that he have them?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Cordero is a putrid, appalling, joke of a player at the plate.

And yes, all the games actually count at the end of the season, no matter how hot a team is at any given point.

Ten years ago the Sox lost a post-season berth to the Rays by one game. Mike Cameron has 94 at bats with a .477 OPS. How important was it that he have them?
If you go by bWAR, you'd have to replace Cordero with a 3.5 WAR/162 player to come up with 1 win at this point in the season.
 

reggiecleveland

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I think your sample choice is directed by your presumed narrative. Is your point is that the Sox won't continue to run him out there because their history is to move on from players who are clearly through (and Ellsbury is just for reference)?
How is that? You look at his performance and look for similar performance. It is hard to find many samples as bad with as many at bats. Ellsbury I mentioned was guy that was hurt and was shut down for the season. The others were vets that had proven track records, being paid a pretty good salary so they got an extended chance. He needs to go down. i am sympathetic towards him, just as I was to injured Allen Craig.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So, if we took out Xander, JD, and Devers from the lineup, and replaced them with competently fielding .474 OPS Franchy clones, we'd still be over a .500 team?
No idea but apparently he's only at -0.3 WAR in his 33 games and 99 PA. -0.4 bWAR.
 

Harry Hooper

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He's 26. He has options. Keeping him on the ML club when you've got 2 utility men and MiL players who can hit and run better than Franchy has been doing.

When he lives up to his bat-speed/launch-angle/foot-placement/anti-counter-spin/secret sauce Mightly Metrickatude (e.g., actually productively hits) in AAA, then call him back up.

Right now, it's malpractice.
It was the reserve clause era, but John McGraw insisted on keeping Mel Ott with the big league club because he didn't want his swing messed with in the minors.

Where is Franchy on the service clock with not a lot of MLB games played over 4 preceding seasons?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Where is Franchy on the service clock with not a lot of MLB games played over 4 preceding seasons?
He started the year with 3 years and 38 days of service time. So if he were to spend at least 39 days in Worcester this year, they could theoretically push his free agency off by another year. I have no doubt that that will have zero influence on how they proceed with him going forward.
 

chawson

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Some of these posts are gonna be pretty funny when Franchy’s hitting 30+ home runs a year for us from the 5-hole next year.

Through May 5: .163 xwOBA, 85.9 mph EV, 40.6 K%, 54.5 GB%
Since May 6: .371 xwOBA, 90.2 mph EV, 28.9 K%, 37.5 GB%

Considering his short spring training (18 PA), it looks like Cordero is pulling out of his post-pandemic early season slump quicker than Renfroe and Dalbec did.
 
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Rovin Romine

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Some of these posts are gonna be pretty funny when Franchy’s hitting 30+ home runs a year for us from the 5-hole next year.

Through May 5: .163 xwOBA, 85.9 mph EV, 40.6 K%, 54.5 GB%
Since May 6: .371 xwOBA, 90.2 mph EV, 28.9 K%, 37.5 GB%

Considering his short spring training (18 PA), it looks like Cordero is pulling out of his post-pandemic early season slump quicker than Renfroe and Dalbec did.
Quoted for posterity.
 

chawson

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Quoted for posterity.
Yeah, I’m deliberately trying to counter the foaming schadenfreude and bad-faith comparisons in this thread, yours included. Cordero, Renfroe and Dalbec are roughly similar players, and it’s taken them all the same number of plate appearances this year to make adjustments and come around.

We’re not talking about some late-career, injury wrecked guy like Allen Craig or noodle bat like James Loney. The WMP comparisons are still lazy and wrong too. Wily Mo led baseball in swinging strikes when strikeouts were much more rare than they are now. Cordero whiffs a lot, but some of his issues have been pitch recognition and watching hittable strikes go by. There are a lot of modern-day players who make it work with Cordero’s contact rate, and few who can hit it as hard as he does. His contemporaries from today’s game are guys like Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle, Adolis Garcia and Bobby Dalbec. Success stories in this mold are guys like Teoscar Hernandez. If you want a historical Red Sox player, I’d suggest he’s closer to Carlos Peña than Wily Mo.

And he’s clearly getting better. Since May 6, Franchy has hit 6 balls in play classified as barrels or solid contact. That’s fifth on the team, tied with J.D. Martinez, Bogaerts and Vazquez, and in much fewer PAs. By comparison, he had only 2 from the beginning of the season until May 5.

I think players like Franchy Cordero are exciting, and I’d like for him to succeed — not get run out of town by the wolves on WEEI. He may still benefit from some time in Worcester (mostly because Danny Santana is gonna be excellent for us), but I’m looking forward to him being a lineup mainstay the next several years. The guy just hit the ball 474 feet off one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let’s give him the same patience we’ve given Dalbec and let him figure it out.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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I think players like Franchy Cordero are exciting, and I’d like for him to succeed — not get run out of town by the wolves on WEEI. He may still benefit from some time in Worcester (mostly because Danny Santana is gonna be excellent for us), but I’m looking forward to him being a lineup mainstay the next several years. The guy just hit the ball 474 feet off one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let’s give him the same patience we’ve given Dalbec and let him figure it out.
Isn't this where most people are at? The most common word used with Franchy in a sentence is probably option(s).

He has been awful this year but it's 102 PA. He has raised his OPS by 104 points in his last 15 PA. His season can turnaround fast.
 

DeadlySplitter

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If you make good pitches to him he's out every time. He's crushed some meatballs like yesterday's for insane HRs, but I'm not sure the plate discipline will ever be there to tap into those tools.

The remaining hope is he hasn't had a lot of major league time, so he adjusts to the level. But I dunno at this point.
 

OCD SS

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How is that? You look at his performance and look for similar performance. It is hard to find many samples as bad with as many at bats. Ellsbury I mentioned was guy that was hurt and was shut down for the season. The others were vets that had proven track records, being paid a pretty good salary so they got an extended chance. He needs to go down. i am sympathetic towards him, just as I was to injured Allen Craig.
As I said, those guys lost their job because you can place them at the end of their careers (due to age and injury), and Franchy clearly isn't. A meaningful comparison would be players overwhelmed at the MLB level and sent down to miLB to further develop, and then what happened to them. Under normal circumstances, the idea that you'd send him to the minors to develop with consistent PAs, but what do you think should happen when there are no minor league games for him to get into, or there are a rash of injuries when you could send him down? And what would the real benefit have been?

As a famous SoSHer once said "What's the complaint, that our # 1 offense hasn't been # 1 enough?"

Yeah, Wily Mo could do that too on the rare occasion when he made good contact. The obsession with stats like this is not good.
Aren't they now? These are the stats that also brought us Pivetta and Richards, who also had their warts. Part of building a team capable of sustainable winning is finding and developing players, and that means sticking through some tough times as they develop. I feel like part of this discussion is making what seems like an easy fix for short term satisfaction, and not putting up with the frustration required in that time for long term benefit (and of course it's harder if you don't know that that benefit will be there.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yeah, I’m deliberately trying to counter the foaming schadenfreude and bad-faith comparisons in this thread, yours included. Cordero, Renfroe and Dalbec are roughly similar players, and it’s taken them all the same number of plate appearances this year to make adjustments and come around.

We’re not talking about some late-career, injury wrecked guy like Allen Craig or noodle bat like James Loney. The WMP comparisons are still lazy and wrong too. Wily Mo led baseball in swinging strikes when strikeouts were much more rare than they are now. Cordero whiffs a lot, but some of his issues have been pitch recognition and watching hittable strikes go by. There are a lot of modern-day players who make it work with Cordero’s contact rate, and few who can hit it as hard as he does. His contemporaries from today’s game are guys like Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle, Adolis Garcia and Bobby Dalbec. Success stories in this mold are guys like Teoscar Hernandez. If you want a historical Red Sox player, I’d suggest he’s closer to Carlos Peña than Wily Mo.

And he’s clearly getting better. Since May 6, Franchy has hit 6 balls in play classified as barrels or solid contact. That’s fifth on the team, tied with J.D. Martinez, Bogaerts and Vazquez, and in much fewer PAs. By comparison, he had only 2 from the beginning of the season until May 5.

I think players like Franchy Cordero are exciting, and I’d like for him to succeed — not get run out of town by the wolves on WEEI. He may still benefit from some time in Worcester (mostly because Danny Santana is gonna be excellent for us), but I’m looking forward to him being a lineup mainstay the next several years. The guy just hit the ball 474 feet off one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let’s give him the same patience we’ve given Dalbec and let him figure it out.
Nothing would make me happier than for Franchy to succeed and hit 30 HR for us this year. (And I wouldn't advocate changing the roster if he began to turn it around. Yesterday was a start.)

I know you think Franchy has a level of talent/ability/skill that will allow him to succeed as a ML player. He's young, and has a track record of 4 partial MLB seasons. He's done average-to well in the minors, and has at least passably hit RHH MLB pitchers. So, some combination of approach and skill indicate he can likely do that in the future.

However, his ability is a side issue.

He hasn't been hitting well at all this year for the ML club. Not even when split for handedness. 88 PAs v. RHP - .516 OPS. 14 PAs v. LHP - .397. Which indicates even Cora views him as a platoon bat.

His only saving grace is that he's been not-nearly-as-dreadful with RISP. 29 PAs, .695 OPS.

There's no indication that he's going to get overall better results. That's because things like hit-speed/distance/barrels don't account for overall approach. Franchy can moon-shot something every 50th at bat, harder than anyone else, and that simply won't make him a viable major leaguer. No matter how many tweets it generates.

Most importantly, Franchy has options. It's not the Sox's duty to continue to run a failing player out there, so he can maybe find his way.

As of today, the Sox are tied with Tampa Bay. Through luck or skill they have a leg up on this season they might leverage into a post-season berth. And that in a season when most weren't expecting such. Whether Franchy develops in the majors or minors is the most minuscule of side issues. I mean, I wouldn't trade the farm for a 2021 run, but I wouldn't write the year off either and treat it like a late-career Tom Kelly Twins team.

Franchy should have been getting regular ABs in the minors last week. If he bursts into flame, they can always call him back up.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Aren't they now? These are the stats that also brought us Pivetta and Richards, who also had their warts. Part of building a team capable of sustainable winning is finding and developing players, and that means sticking through some tough times as they develop. I feel like part of this discussion is making what seems like an easy fix for short term satisfaction, and not putting up with the frustration required in that time for long term benefit (and of course it's harder if you don't know that that benefit will be there.
I always enjoy how those that are quick to say "small sample size" when somebody sucks for six weeks are also ready to proclaim somebody else a real find when they've been good for six weeks.*

I hope you're right about Franchy and Pivetta and Richards, but I'm not ready to be sure. Meanwhile Cordero is a black hole and we are possibly destroying whatever little confidence he has left after his many recent struggles. Seems like a bad idea for everyone to keep him around right now.

* and we've already seen another poster pretty much guarantee that Santana is going to be great based on three games!
 

chawson

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There's no indication that he's going to get overall better results. That's because things like hit-speed/distance/barrels don't account for overall approach. Franchy can moon-shot something every 50th at bat, harder than anyone else, and that simply won't make him a viable major leaguer.
I don’t think I agree with you here. Or else I’m not sure what you mean by “overall approach.” There’s no way we can account for a hitter’s mental or psychological approach, but I’ve watched maybe half of Franchy’s PAs, and early on he struck me as a guy who was overthinking it — a guy whose brain was ahead of his body in applying a new hitting approach. After a pandemic, lots of lost time due to injury, an abbreviated spring and a new team/hitting coach, that all intuitively checks out.

But the data support this too. Over the first 64 PAs this year, Cordero’s batting profile looked a lot different than his career. His exit velocity was sharply down, his ground ball rates were well up, and so were his balls in play to the opposite field. I think that tells us a lot about his approach, that he’s a) deliberately trying to go the other way, perhaps by instruction, or b) late and having trouble with his timing (as a result of all the factors above).

There’s probably some combination of the two at play, but the uncharacteristic-for-him shabby exit velocities (and timid-looking swings) suggest to me that scenario A is at least partly true, with B making it tougher to adapt on the fly.

But lately, he is getting better results. It’s small sample size, but he’s barreling the ball again, pulling it a lot more and hitting it in the air. I don’t know what we can attribute that to, but it’s happening.

More broadly, the Sox very rarely have occasion to give a high-upside player like this PAs at the major-league level except in those rare seasons when we’re out of it by midseason, like 2012 and 2014. Teams like the A’s and Rays develop guys like this all the time. I think some parts of the fan base have a hard time seeing a player make adjustments at the major league level, especially if he just supplanted a fan favorite.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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I always enjoy how those that are quick to say "small sample size" when somebody sucks for six weeks are also ready to proclaim somebody else a real find when they've been good for six weeks.*

I hope you're right about Franchy and Pivetta and Richards, but I'm not ready to be sure. Meanwhile Cordero is a black hole and we are possibly destroying whatever little confidence he has left after his many recent struggles. Seems like a bad idea for everyone to keep him around right now.

* and we've already seen another poster pretty much guarantee that Santana is going to be great based on three games!
definition of a small sample size, but if the last 4 games show how he plays with little or no confidence I think they should double down on making fun of anything about him that they can do to get him even more in the "I'LL SHOW THEM" mode that he must be in now

41394
 

JimD

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I hope you're right about Franchy and Pivetta and Richards, but I'm not ready to be sure. Meanwhile Cordero is a black hole and we are possibly destroying whatever little confidence he has left after his many recent struggles. Seems like a bad idea for everyone to keep him around right now.
I guess this is where I have to trust in the professional insight of Cora and his staff and of the front office to determine if Cordero is benefitting from his difficult 2021 MLB experience. I have to believe that if they saw a young player who was getting his confidence crushed by failure and risking long-term damage to his career, they would find a way to send him down. Conversely, if Franchy is dealing well with his struggles at the plate and is doing everything they ask and responding well to instruction, but the results just aren't there yet, they may have determined that it is worth giving him some more playing time at the big league level than might otherwise be warranted for a similarly-struggling youngster. I guess I just want to believe that the Red Sox aren't oblivious to the psychological aspects of his rough start.
 

Rovin Romine

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I don’t think I agree with you here. Or else I’m not sure what you mean by “overall approach.”
The physical ability to hit a single thrown baseball very hard is not the same thing as being a viable MLB hitter. Franchy has never established he can do the former consistently enough to be the latter. (The history of baseball is littered with toolsy players who never amounted to anything.)

But lately, he is getting better results. It’s small sample size, but he’s barreling the ball again, pulling it a lot more and hitting it in the air. I don’t know what we can attribute that to, but it’s happening.
Again? Seriously, what historical performance does that increased barreling correlate with? Majors or Minors. (Honest question.)

More broadly, the Sox very rarely have occasion to give a high-upside player like this PAs at the major-league level except in those rare seasons when we’re out of it by midseason, like 2012 and 2014. Teams like the A’s and Rays develop guys like this all the time. I think some parts of the fan base have a hard time seeing a player make adjustments at the major league level, especially if he just supplanted a fan favorite.
Well, last first, those parts of the fan base aren't me. Next, he's not "making adjustments" - he's simply not hitting. Next, the Padres developed this guy. Here's a 2018 article on Franchy's limitless potential. https://community.fangraphs.com/the-endless-possibilities-of-franchy-cordero/

And, first last, the Sox can develop this guy in AAA. Which is the entire point of this. No one wants the kid to fail. It's him stinking up the joint for close to a third of the season. Let him show some consistent barreltudey-rates against MiL pitchers - in a way that suggests he can do it in the majors.
 

YTF

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Yeah, I’m deliberately trying to counter the foaming schadenfreude and bad-faith comparisons in this thread, yours included. Cordero, Renfroe and Dalbec are roughly similar players, and it’s taken them all the same number of plate appearances this year to make adjustments and come around.

We’re not talking about some late-career, injury wrecked guy like Allen Craig or noodle bat like James Loney. The WMP comparisons are still lazy and wrong too. Wily Mo led baseball in swinging strikes when strikeouts were much more rare than they are now. Cordero whiffs a lot, but some of his issues have been pitch recognition and watching hittable strikes go by. There are a lot of modern-day players who make it work with Cordero’s contact rate, and few who can hit it as hard as he does. His contemporaries from today’s game are guys like Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle, Adolis Garcia and Bobby Dalbec. Success stories in this mold are guys like Teoscar Hernandez. If you want a historical Red Sox player, I’d suggest he’s closer to Carlos Peña than Wily Mo.

And he’s clearly getting better. Since May 6, Franchy has hit 6 balls in play classified as barrels or solid contact. That’s fifth on the team, tied with J.D. Martinez, Bogaerts and Vazquez, and in much fewer PAs. By comparison, he had only 2 from the beginning of the season until May 5.

I think players like Franchy Cordero are exciting, and I’d like for him to succeed — not get run out of town by the wolves on WEEI. He may still benefit from some time in Worcester (mostly because Danny Santana is gonna be excellent for us), but I’m looking forward to him being a lineup mainstay the next several years. The guy just hit the ball 474 feet off one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let’s give him the same patience we’ve given Dalbec and let him figure it out.
Also, FWIW WMP played in parts of four major league season before joining The Sox in 2006. Franchy played in parts of four major league seasons before joining The Sox this season. Pena had just over 900 PA's during that period while Cordero had just over 300.
 

nvalvo

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Remember, at 118.6 mph, Franchy just hit the hardest ball a Red Sox player has hit in the tracking era, i.e. since 2015. Over that 5ish season span, only Giancarlo Stanton, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and Gary Sanchez have hit even a single ball harder than that mark.

With the exception of Gary Sanchez, who is kind of terrible, there just aren't many hitters with that kind of outlier exit velocity, and most of them are pretty great hitters. Obviously, he needs to make contact to tap into that power, but that's what we were all saying about Aaron Judge when he struck out a ton in his early partial season.
 

jon abbey

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With the exception of Gary Sanchez, who is kind of terrible
I know this is a throwaway line but:

Gary Sanchez: 11.0 career bWAR, 1654 ABs (28 years old)
Christian Vazquez: 4.7 career bWAR, 1725 ABs (30 years old)

Also, this always blows my mind, Sanchez has 120 career HRs in those 1654 ABs and Judge is not too far ahead with 131 in 1674 career ABs.

Also Chris Gittens has shown this kind of exit velocity but has yet to be promoted (AA League MVP in 2019, crushing AAA this year, a 27 year old 1B for NY).
 

bankshot1

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The WAR comp is a little misleading as 7/11 of Sanchez' WAR value came in 2016 and 2017.

I think even the most passionate Y-fan might admit his career trajectory might have flattened in the intervening years.
 
I was kinda digging the chatter about what the team would be doing with a replacement level bat instead of Franchy, so rather than rely on abstract stats I figured I'd go to the best stat to answer this kind of question: WPA. It's not at all predictive, but it's a great description of what has actually happened.

When I looked up the team WPA stats, I was a bit shocked by what I found.

Franchy Cordero currently carries a -.21 WPA (in 102 PA). That's not good, of course but it's not nearly as bad as you'd expect given his poor stats. Part of that is that he's actually been modestly clutch (.34).

There are currently four Red Sox with worse WPA than Franchy:

  • Kevin Plawecki (-.29 in 50 PA, -.19 clutch)
  • Enrique Hernandez (-.47 in 149 PA, -.67 clutch
  • Hunter Renfroe (-.5 in 145 PA, -.31 clutch)
  • Marwin Gonzalez (-.65 in 158 PA, .3 clutch)
So ordered by WPA per PA we get:
  1. Franchy Cordero (-.0021)
  2. Enrique Hernandez (-.0032)
  3. Hunter Renfroe (-.0034)
  4. Marwin Gonzalez (-.0041)
  5. Kevin Plawecki (-.0058)
So while Franchy's overall numbers have been really bad this season, there are four hitters who have done more damage to the team's chances of winning games based on their actual plays in game context. That remains true both in absolute terms and in per PA terms.

Fun and surprising fact: Bobby Dalbec is number 5 on the team in batting WPA behind JDM, Devers, Verdugo, and X (in order of 1-4). Kid has been clutch, and X has been very unclutch.
 

Rovin Romine

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Remember, at 118.6 mph, Franchy just hit the hardest ball a Red Sox player has hit in the tracking era, i.e. since 2015. Over that 5ish season span, only Giancarlo Stanton, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and Gary Sanchez have hit even a single ball harder than that mark.

With the exception of Gary Sanchez, who is kind of terrible, there just aren't many hitters with that kind of outlier exit velocity, and most of them are pretty great hitters. Obviously, he needs to make contact to tap into that power, but that's what we were all saying about Aaron Judge when he struck out a ton in his early partial season.
Enrique Hernandez clocked one out at 118 in 2016. We must get that guy! He will also be Judge-esque. But even better since his contact skills are already decent. All we need is a power-nickname.
 

chawson

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Enrique Hernandez clocked one out at 118 in 2016. We must get that guy! He will also be Judge-esque. But even better since his contact skills are already decent. All we need is a power-nickname.
Another fun fact: Cordero has already hit four balls in play this season harder than Andrew Benintendi’s hardest-hit ball in a Red Sox uniform (a single to right against Oakland).
 

ngruz25

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So... can we agree that exit velocity, without any additional information, has no predictive value? I'm not sure why it keeps being brought up, other than that it's a new shiny metric to cite. Barrels is definitely a more interesting statistic, but that also has to be read in context.

I posted a couple examples upthread of Franchy "crushing" balls that had exit velocities of over 100 mph. One was a routine chopper to second and the other a pop up to center. The launch angles on those were extreme in both directions. But the EV of those bad result at-bats still helped Franchy's cited EV averages.
 

jon abbey

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So... can we agree that exit velocity, without any additional information, has no predictive value? I'm not sure why it keeps being brought up, other than that it's a new shiny metric to cite. Barrels is definitely a more interesting statistic, but that also has to be read in context.

I posted a couple examples upthread of Franchy "crushing" balls that had exit velocities of over 100 mph. One was a routine chopper to second and the other a pop up to center. The launch angles on those were extreme in both directions. But the EV of those bad result at-bats still helped Franchy's cited EV averages.
Didn’t you just argue the opposite a few posts ago? I disagree strongly, being able to hit a ball 118 is like being able to throw 100, it’s still pretty rare and a big deal. Being able to throw 100 also doesn’t mean you’re good in and of itself but it sure helps and is very worth noting.
 

Rovin Romine

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Another fun fact: Cordero has already hit four balls in play this season harder than Andrew Benintendi’s hardest-hit ball in a Red Sox uniform (a single to right against Oakland).
You ignored my question on your earlier post - what historical performance does Franchy barreling the ball “again” correlate to?
 

chawson

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So... can we agree that exit velocity, without any additional information, has no predictive value? I'm not sure why it keeps being brought up, other than that it's a new shiny metric to cite. Barrels is definitely a more interesting statistic, but that also has to be read in context.
No, we can’t agree to that. Hit probability is strongly correlated with exit velocity. There are other factors too, of course. Hitting a 101-mph two-hoppers to second like Yandy Diaz won’t get you very far. But very simply the harder a ball is hit the less likely it’ll be converted into an out.

I’d argue that exit velocity is more correlative with success nowadays because a) advanced scouting has optimized fielders’ positions, cutting the reaction time necessary to convert BIP into outs, and b) this year the new lighter ball has more drag, resulting in a measured reduction in fly ball distance and home runs.

Not saying it’s the only thing.

You ignored my question on your earlier post - what historical performance does Franchy barreling the ball “again” correlate to?
The rest of his career.
 

Rovin Romine

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No, we can’t agree to that. Hit probability is strongly correlated with exit velocity. There are other factors too, of course. Hitting a 101-mph two-hoppers to second like Yandy Diaz won’t get you very far. But very simply the harder a ball is hit the less likely it’ll be converted into an out.

I’d argue that exit velocity is more correlative with success nowadays because a) advanced scouting has optimized fielders’ positions, cutting the reaction time necessary to convert BIP into outs, and b) this year the new lighter ball has more drag, resulting in a measured reduction in fly ball distance and home runs.

Not saying it’s the only thing.



The rest of his career.
The .678 OPS career?
 

grimshaw

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I think we all can agree that he may not be a finished product so it's worth seeing if he can improve in any aspect of the game getting an extended look in AAA.
This is what I do think we know.

-He's an average fielder. Career defensive runs saved of -7, and a UZR/150 of -8.4 which is fine - not far from the 4 to 4.5 out of 8 he was rated at by scouts. He can play CF and RF, but that's not happening here often with Verdugo and the other utility guys filling in. At 26 you are more or less what you are and will start declining unless you develop better instincts, which doesn't usually happen.

-He has a gun for an arm, but he is likely to only play LF with Verdugo and multiple other options from the bench available so that's a bit of a waste in Fenway.

-He is very fast and has had positive base running value, though he doesn't steal often or get on base at an acceptable enough rate.

Basically, he needs to develop into a monster bat to justify a starting job at whatever position he ends up playing - very likely LF only. If he's only a match up guy and pinch runner that's not all that bad for a cheap guy who is only one part of the deal. Not every guy you trade for has to be a star or bust.
 
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reggiecleveland

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Some of these posts are gonna be pretty funny when Franchy’s hitting 30+ home runs a year for us from the 5-hole next year.

Through May 5: .163 xwOBA, 85.9 mph EV, 40.6 K%, 54.5 GB%
Since May 6: .371 xwOBA, 90.2 mph EV, 28.9 K%, 37.5 GB%

Considering his short spring training (18 PA), it looks like Cordero is pulling out of his post-pandemic early season slump quicker than Renfroe and Dalbec did.
??
That he would be better in th emonirs right now if possible? That's what I am saying.
 

nvalvo

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I know this is a throwaway line but:

Gary Sanchez: 11.0 career bWAR, 1654 ABs (28 years old)
Christian Vazquez: 4.7 career bWAR, 1725 ABs (30 years old)

Also, this always blows my mind, Sanchez has 120 career HRs in those 1654 ABs and Judge is not too far ahead with 131 in 1674 career ABs.

Also Chris Gittens has shown this kind of exit velocity but has yet to be promoted (AA League MVP in 2019, crushing AAA this year, a 27 year old 1B for NY).
That's fair. It was a throwaway line, and you're right: there's more to Sanchez than his last few seasons, and I shouldn't be snide about it.

Still, in fWAR, it's Sanchez 11.5, Vazquez 11.0.

Enrique Hernandez clocked one out at 118 in 2016. We must get that guy! He will also be Judge-esque. But even better since his contact skills are already decent. All we need is a power-nickname.
Yup. I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make. Isn't the aim in the middle of a rebuild, as we thought we were 8 weeks ago, to try to identify and acquire undervalued players? Almost by definition, those will be players who have some underlying skill that hasn't yet shown up in performance for whatever reason.

If the team is unexpectedly competitive because the early returns on the starting pitching version of this play have been pretty great (i.e. betting on SPs like Pivetta and Richards with high-end spin rates but health or performance question marks), that seems like evidence for the effectiveness of this kind of strategy, not cause to abandon it. Sure, not every hitter with high EVs is going to be good right away (or at all), just like there are pitchers who can throw hard or get big spin rates but are nevertheless terrible. It seems like we have some good things going on in our pitching program to help those guys unlock that performance.

It may be that hitting analogues — swing or plate approach tweaks — are slower to implement. But in recent weeks watching Franchy, I see a rising contact rate, a falling strikeout rate, more hard contact and more hits in the fast-stabilizing stats. And, you know, he's gained 100 points of OPS in four games. I doubt that torrid pace will continue, but if I were running the team, I would give it a few more weeks; if he's still sporting a (I don't know) sub-.600 OPS, then I'd look at optioning him at that point.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yup. I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make. Isn't the aim in the middle of a rebuild, as we thought we were 8 weeks ago, to try to identify and acquire undervalued players? Almost by definition, those will be players who have some underlying skill that hasn't yet shown up in performance for whatever reason.

If the team is unexpectedly competitive because the early returns on the starting pitching version of this play have been pretty great (i.e. betting on SPs like Pivetta and Richards with high-end spin rates but health or performance question marks), that seems like evidence for the effectiveness of this kind of strategy, not cause to abandon it. Sure, not every hitter with high EVs is going to be good right away (or at all), just like there are pitchers who can throw hard or get big spin rates but are nevertheless terrible. It seems like we have some good things going on in our pitching program to help those guys unlock that performance.

It may be that hitting analogues — swing or plate approach tweaks — are slower to implement. But in recent weeks watching Franchy, I see a rising contact rate, a falling strikeout rate, more hard contact and more hits in the fast-stabilizing stats. And, you know, he's gained 100 points of OPS in four games. I doubt that torrid pace will continue, but if I were running the team, I would give it a few more weeks; if he's still sporting a (I don't know) sub-.600 OPS, then I'd look at optioning him at that point.
Are we in the middle of a rebuild? Should we prioritize player development of Franchy at the ML level instead of using AAA for that, because. . .we don't need to win games?

Again, I'd like to see Franchy succeed and develop, although such is not guaranteed. But there are costs to carrying a black hole in the lineup.

And the point was that measuring "outlier" exit velocity at the MLB level is going to correlate pretty well with people who are already successful elite sluggers at the MLB level. But it's not predictive of batting skills in general. (Unless you can show me that guys who put up 115+ exit velocity in the minors all go on to become successful hitters.)

Which is all to say this is merely old wine in new bottles. WMP, Toe Nash, anyone who's ever hit tape-measure shots in BP but does not have the batting skills to stick in the majors.

Again, rooting for Franchy to develop those skills. Rooting for him to do it in the minors and help the club when he's ready. While he's at it, maybe he can learn to use his speed to steal a base or two.
 

Tuff Ghost

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Again? Seriously, what historical performance does that increased barreling correlate with? Majors or Minors. (Honest question.)
In his MLB career (236 batted balls), Franchy has a barrel % that is comfortably above average (10.6% Franchy, 6.5 MLB average), but that is barrels per batted ball event (does not factor in the strikeout rate of the player, which would negatively affect him).

Just to show an example of players with this type of career barrel %, it would put him in the 50s for highest career barrel % if he qualified with enough PAs, but the list is pretty varied as far as quality of player:
41400

Trey Mancini's low launch angle (7.1 vs Franchy's 6.3) is an interesting comparison, but the K % is not close (Trey 22.7%, Franchy 35.3%).

Unfortunately, Steven Souza Jr. makes a decent comparison as a hard-hitting, 10% barrel guy with a high K % (31.5%); his career wOBA is just a tick above average (.322). I have no idea what Franchy will become, personally, but he is intriguing. I just hope he stays healthy so his sample size can get larger and we start to see who he really is.