Pats Training Camp - News, Notes, Discussion
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That was awesome when they had Brady and could be 4-2 while still figuring out their identity before turning it on for the stretch run, now a slow September could end their season.
pretty sure the 9ers know. They have tons of practice tape etc
edit: what super nomario said
It's hard to say b/c there was so little to see of front line players, but: I'm not wildly impressed yet with the corners. Could be some growing pains, especially if Jack Jones is out (and, according to last night, even if he's in). Depth is good at safety, but not sure about replacing McCourty. I think the OL determines so much and it is a trainwreck of injuries and unprovens. Fingers crossed. Hoping once ALL THE STARTERS are playing across the roster, things will look brighter.
Random thought but I absolutely believe Wentz would be a better QB2 than Zappe. I know that's not Belichick's style but I wish he would consider that.
Interesting that that isn't up on patriots.com yet. Bit of a surprise for me. When I saw the blurb about a vet being cut, I expected it was going to be Guy. Only saves about $700k on the cap, not a cap casualty.
The Pats have started 1-3 in both of Jones season as starter. With this schedule a good start seems imperative. I am just having a hard time getting excited about the season. Jones has never mounted a fourth quarter comeback. He is terrible when pressured and the line is the biggest question on the team. The defense is good but this offense is so blah. Talk me off the ledge.
This looks like a mediocre roster to me but there are enough young guys to keep me interested. The defense has a good amount of talent so that’s the “get off the ledge” angle. The offense is a complete unknown but we do know they’re in much better hands than they were last year.
The group of pass catchers are generally solid. No stars but no real scrubs either. The OL and Mac are the huge unknowns.
Personally, I think Philly is going to roll this team. They’re so much better on the lines and almost all of the skill positions. I’m quite honestly surprised the spread is only 4.5.
Yeah I think we are in for a major beatdown in week 1 and most of Pats Nation will be in full on panic mode.
There was an article about every team a few weeks back that had the Pats worst case scenario at 5-12, and best at 10-7. Feels about right, I just don’t see how a team with an OK offense can win games in this league. Hopefully they luck out and play every teams backup QB again this year, but this team hasn’t really had a compelling win against a good team in normal weather in the past three years. Note expecting much at all, and hoping to be surprised.
I am just amazed that they have no blue chip offensive players while having a QB on a rookie contract. It’s bad team building.
The AEast schedule is so tough that I figure the Pats are favored in 4 or 5 games but I can’t see that happening to BB. I’m very interested in seeing what type of coaching master class he puts on. Assuming health the pats have the better qb in 2 games (Howell/Richardson) and then Jimmy G and Dimes are the others he might be even with.
I think the "extended training camp" comment is either misstated or misinterpreted. Bill has said that he does use the first few games to evaluate where the team is at, with the intention of seeing what changes, if any, should be made. But that doesn't mean that the first few games are simply shrugged off as not mattering.
Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliot, Henry, hopefully a revitalized Bourne, and an interesting draft pickup in Douglas. Disagree that it is bad team building.
Elliot is not a blue chip player in 2023. Henry and Bourne are decent players, but not exactly Gronk and Moss. They combined to like 900 yards last year.
I don't think either were expected to be at the level of Gronk or Moss. 900 yards isn't bad for TE1 and WR3 combo, and that was with Bourne firmly in the dog house. Henry was league-average as a TE (15th overall in yardage), underachieving his contract value (tied for 9th league wide), but not by a ton.
There just weren't a ton of WR options available this off-season, and missing on TT really hurts. Juju was worth the pillow contract, and IMHO, WR talent is not the problem. I would have doubled down on OT, as it's clearly the team's biggest weakness. Pay Andrew Wylie in free agency (he's making $8M, 500K less than the Pupu platter of Reiff and Calvin Anderson) and draft Dawand Jones in the 3rd, and we'd be in far, far better shape. I think BB wanted to prepare for Dugger's departure in free agency, and thinks Mapu is that guy, but it was a reach for a luxury, rather than drafting for need.
Who knows, maybe Anderson turns out to be a steal, but he hasn't played at all. Reiff seemed like a huge reach (old, couldn't start on a bad team), and he's not played well even when he could stay on the field.
Just curious as to what folks think would happen to BB if the Patriots went 5-12 this season? 5-12 would represent his worst season ever as Patriots head coach, which might suggest that it's not all that likely (I'm bearish on Mac Jones and the offense, and still think the Patriots will win at least 7 games).
Just for argument's sake, if the 2023 Patriots go 5-12, BB's regular season record since 2019 would be 30-37 with 1 playoff appearance in 4 seasons. I think he would be firmly on the hot seat for the 2024 season with perhaps the loss of final say on personnel moves.
It is going to be painful watching Pickens go for 1k yds 8tds when we thought that was what NKeal would give us while Thornton spends another lost season on IR. Bill's inability to draft WRs may keep him from catching Shula. Add AJ Brown or Deebo or even Pickens to this team and they are light years better.
So where are these blue chip players supposed to come from? They don't just magically appear and the one free agency where they had the money to spend they got the best players available.
So yeah.
Could have had Mapu in 3rd and Dawand in the 4th. We chose a center, Jake Andrews, instead. We’ll see how that turns out but Dawand is apparently looking good so far. Obviously, hard to really know until the games start.
I think 5-12 only happens with some crazy bad injury luck, to me this team has a very narrow band of outcomes, can't see them winning fewer than 7 games or more than 10.
Just recently teams have acquired AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, all of whom put up monster seasons and two of those guys elevated the level of previously unimpressive offenses immediately. If you don't want to make that kind of deal for receivers that's perfectly understandable, but these guys are available if you want to go grab them. Could have had Hopkins for peanuts as well.
Should a team I keep hearing is lacking in talent be giving up multiple higher draft picks for a WR? If you told me it was going to be for a top LT, I might be interested.
Orlando Brown Jr was available for nothing but money this off-season and could have solidified the tackle spot. And as I have mentioned I don't think the team is lacking in talent overall, it lacks top tier talent on offense, which one of those guys could provide. If you don't have an elite QB, you have to build like the Dolphins (still think they could have made some noise last year were it not for Tua's injury), the Eagles or the 49ers (by the way, they could have been in on Christian McCaffrey as well).
Definitely in agreement overall, but I think Hurts has elite QB potential, if he isn’t there already.
Orlando Brown said he took less money than the Jets offered to go to Cincy. Not clear he would have gone to Pats without a much bigger contract.
I know I'm a few days late, but I'd be all for cutting Guy for capspace. There's been stretches the last few seasons where he's been good, but there's also been stretches when he looked toast.
He's a long, lean (for a DL) Guy that uses his leverage to make plays on the interior. Any drop of speed or strength - not uncommon for a 34 year old - is going to affect him more than the average lineman.
Knowing Bill's penchant to drop someone a year early instead of a year late, I wouldn't be shocked (or all that upset) if they cut or traded Guy (conditional late round pick).
He's a long, lean (for a DL) Guy that uses his leverage to make plays on the interior. Any drop of speed or strength - not uncommon for a 34 year old - is going to affect him more than the average lineman.
Knowing Bill's penchant to drop someone a year early instead of a year late, I wouldn't be shocked (or all that upset) if they cut or traded Guy (conditional late round pick).
Orlando Brown wants a ring, and CIN gives him that chance. He would not have been coming to NE. He also got paid far more than the Pats had budget for, which is why I suggested Wylie.
Edit: luckiestman nailed this
Edit: luckiestman nailed this
Additionally, Justin Jefferson was picked 1 pick before us in 2020 draft not to mention the 2019 Harry draft disaster. Getting a top WR isn’t like climbing Everest. Almost every team seems to be able to do it except us.
Over time, Bill has not taken enough swings at the top of the draft for WR talent.
I agree.
People keep implying the Pats could have just signed or traded for all these top tier players at the same draft capital/contract they ended up going for.
Sorry guys… we’re working with bad weather, high taxes, unproven QB, and (predicted) last place in the division. Unless there is still significant Patriots mystique going for us, we are at the bottom of the totem pole.
Without significant overpays I have no idea why any of these top guys would be committing to the Patriots right now. It may not be for lack of effort by BB and the front office.
That and they haven’t made the right evaluations later on in the draft.
2019 alone had Deebo, AJ Brown, DK, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin after the first round.
2020 had Higgins, Pittman in early round 2
2021 had Amon-Ra in 4th round
2022 we actually made a pick in TT 2 picks ahead of Pickens, which isn’t looking great
Opportunities are out there and we just aren’t making the right evaluations. Here’s to hoping TT surprises us as some point or Douglas/Boutte become revelations like Jakobi.
When they aggressively went after guys, they tend to land them- see the spending spree in the haze of Brady winning in Tampa, which landed Agholor, Henry, Jonnu, Bourne, Judon, Mills, etc.
The negativity in this thread sucks and it stinks. Tom Brady isn't walking through that door. Rob Gronkowski isn't walking through that door. And if you expect them to walk through that door, they're going to be grey and old.
I am a polyanna. The defense will be dominant. The rookies will be amazing. The offense will be good enough, even with a makeshift offensive line. Belichick will eke out two close wins. They'll finish 10-7 and get a wildcard.
I am a polyanna. The defense will be dominant. The rookies will be amazing. The offense will be good enough, even with a makeshift offensive line. Belichick will eke out two close wins. They'll finish 10-7 and get a wildcard.
Yup, many people in the draft game thread wanted Pickens there, including myself.
There were plenty of good RTs available this off-season if you think Orlando Brown Jr got too much money (which I don't believe he did and the Patriots certainly had both the cash and cap space to sign him with ease). I don't know why we keep talking about the budget for a team with the second most cap space combined in the next two seasons and no big money QB on the books until 2026 at the earliest.
I've got them at 8-9, 9-8, that schedule is brutal, as is their division.
Not good enough for the playoffs, not lousy enough for a top 10 draft pick, a middling team, which is what they've been for the past 3 years.
Amazing that a guy as smart as Belichick isn't aware that throwing money and picks at big name wide receivers is the way to championships. Someone should fucking tell him.
These are the top teams by record from last season. Every single one of them has a top receiving weapon that they pay a lot of money to or gave up a lot of resources for.
Buffalo - Diggs
Bengals - Chase/Higgins
Chiefs - Kelce
Eagles - AJ Brown/Smith
Cowboys - Lamb
Niners - Samuel/Aiyuk/Kittle
Vikings - Jefferson
Sure, we can sarcastically toss aside the idea that receiving talent matters because the Patriots have won in the past without it, but the game has changed over the past 20 years. if you don't have an elite quarterback, you better have great receiving weapons if you want to compete at high levels (and even if you have an elite quarterback, great receiving weapons will amplify their excellence). Defense alone isn't going to carry a team to a championship anymore. Offenses are too good and the rules are too skewed in their favor.
The idea that adding one of these guys comes at great cost to the rest of the roster... sorry, I don't agree with that either. They could've trumped the Eagles offer for AJ Brown last year. Instead, they did some draft shenanigans with the 21st pick and spun that into:
- Cole Strange
- Jack Jones
- Bailey Zappe
- Marte Mapu
So instead of top 10 receiver who could help Mac grow as a QB, we have a decent guard, a talented CB who's been a knucklehead off the field in just the one season he's been here, a shitty backup QB with no upside, and a wildcard safety/linebacker hybrid. Is it really that much of a sacrifice to find other solutions at these fairly fungible positions? They wouldn't have needed to pick Thornton at 50, so they could've filled those spots with a second rounder (or trade back for more picks).
The line has sucked for years at this point. The receiving position has sucked since Brady was here. Tight end has been a revolving door since Gronk left. At what point is it okay to admit that, for all his brilliance, BB and his staff might not excel at the offensive side of football in 2023?
I don't think Brown got too much money. I think he made top-of-the-market LT money, which he 100% deserves. He's one of the best in football, and was a free agent. I do think that, for this specific season, the Pats did not have the cash and cap space to make it work:
- The Pats had $34M in cap space to play with as of Jan 30 (source: Pats Pulpit).
- OBj ended up getting essentially a completely guaranteed contract, averaging $16M per for the next 4 years. Cap hit for the 1st year: $10M (source: Sportrac)
- The Pats had nearly $24M in Dead Cap charges, half of which is dumping Jonnu, but other big chunks for DMac's retirement and Old Friend Jake Bailey (source: Sportrac)
So with this in mind, they would have run out of cap room after signing 1 player, having little left over to pay their rookies, and needing to fill WR2 and TE2. Sure, they could have chosen to keep Jonnu, but they traded him on Mar 13, and OBj signed 3 days later on Mar 16. It was likely clear to them by Mar 13 that OBj was not coming aboard, so they decided to clean the books and go with cheaper options to fill out the offensive side of the ball.
As for the bear prospective I've got on this team's prospects for this year, it comes down to 4 bad years of drafts on the offensive side of the ball. Teams can't hit on every draftee, but the failures in drafting over the past 4 years have the team in a tough state:
- Failing to develop more than 1 WR over the last 4 years (the one they did develop just left for LVR)
- Failing to develop any TEs over the last 4 years (literally zero)
- Failing to develop any OTs over the last 4 years (Wynn went from decent to hooboy bad over the course of his rookie contract)
They surely did do well with RBs (Harris was solid when not injured, and Rham is above-average), but that's a lot of busts over 4 years, busts that had to be made up for with big money FAs (HH/Jonnu/Agholar/Trent Brown), most of whom have also underperformed.
Good question.
In 2021, with a rookie QB, the Pats were ranked:
#6 in points scored
#15 in yards gained
#14 in yards per play
#4 in first downs gained
#2 in % of drives ending in a score
#10 in expected points scored
#9 in total offensive DVOA
#8 in pro-football-reference's OSRS metric
#12 in passer rating
#12 in rushing yds per carry
I don't know...that seems like a solid offense. Not great. Not elite. But pretty. darned good, especially with a rookie QB.
Let's see how they do this year before making declarations that they may not be good at this.
Interesting, but I have a question about record and WR acquisition success that I’m not sure I know how to answer in my own, but which I think is critical here.
If we accept the premise that a team needs an elite receiving weapon to succeed at the highest level in today’s NFL, what is the hit rate for teams pursuing such? Like, the teams listed make a strong case, but it is post hoc analysis. In other words, these teams are successful, and they have elite receiving weapons. But how many other teams attempted to acquire elite receiving weapons and just failed? Like, they didn’t pan out, say? Did any of the teams with great receivers just get lucky? Because ultimately, seeing that the best teams have elite receiving weapons is only part of the story; we need to know more about how attempts succeed and fail to try to understand what the best approach would be. I mean, we all know how awesome it is to luck into great skills players, yeah? Every completion from Brady to Edelman was a near statistical impossibility in the larger picture, but there sure were a lot of them!
Lets try this:
Buffalo - Josh Allen
Bengals - Joe Burrow
Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes
Eagles - Jalen Hurts.
I think if you were to go down that list which of those teams would swap Mac in as their QB? I guess I go back to the older view of the elite WR as the hood ornament or the last final piece you add to your team to push it over the top. It is what BB did when we got Moss. I think you also assume Mac is going to show tremendous growth, when he came in as a high floor lower ceiling guy. BB built his teams in recent years even when Brady was here around defense, tough running etc. It was the model for our last super bowl.