Only God Can Judge Judge

Greg29fan

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The Dodgers will move Mookie to CF (he played like 30 games there last year) and Judge will be their RF. He's from California, too.
 

bankshot1

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If nothing else the prospect of Judge being FA in '23 and walking away for nothing should spark some discussion whether Cashman should have/will entertain offers for Judge.
 

Mr. Stinky Esq.

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I think he is generally irritated that he has to take so much flak about situations that people don't really grasp very well, meaning why NY couldn't go over $270M or sign a QO FA this winter (because it would have likely cost them #1 IFA Brandon Mayea next January, but teams aren't allowed to talk about teenagers not yet officially under contract, understandably).
I get it but I'm of the general belief that a GM's feelings don't matter. Players' feelings matter though and I think the feelings of a homegrown superstar who's the most popular player on the Yankees since Jeter (and who they're still hoping to extend) do matter.

What cause does this announcement tend to advance while it tends to push Judge away (even if only marginally)?
 

EvilEmpire

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If nothing else the prospect of Judge being FA in '23 and walking away for nothing should spark some discussion whether Cashman should have/will entertain offers for Judge.
Among Sox fans and reporters looking for clickbait to publish, sure.
 

jon abbey

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NY has very little depth at OF in the upper levels, this puts more of a focus on Gallo (also a FA after this season), Hicks (under contract through 2025 but can never stay healthy), and Florial (still 24 and has homered in the first two AAA games this week).

I said it a few days ago, but this negotiation is a major reason why Cashman agreed to take on the Stanton deal a while back, if Judge leaves, he still has Stanton.
 

terrynever

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Cashman gets a pivotal 2022 season to see if Judge can stay healthy. If Judge only plays 100 games, he’s not worth $30M a year.
 

Ale Xander

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Stanton is just like Judge, just worse, older, less liked by fans and with worse intangibles.
 

EvilEmpire

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Stanton is just like Judge, just worse, older, less liked by fans and with worse intangibles.
You forgot "already signed and much cheaper".

It would certainly suck to lose Judge and fully replacing what he brings to the table isn't going to happen, but Stanton in RF full time is a solid backup plan.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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My guess is, unless Judge gets a bit lucky and exceeds his recent performances, he won't get an offer that big next year. And even if he were to beat it, how much further realistically do we think another team will go? $20 million maybe? I just don't see it. If I was a Yankee fan, I'd have a hard time believing that he really wants to stay.

10 birds in your hand is worth more than 11 in the bush.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm all for betting on yourself, but it takes brass balls to turn down $200M+ guaranteed. Life/health is fragile, anything can happen. (This applies to all athletes who do this, of course, not only Judge.)
Yeah, god speed, Aaron, because no way I'm turning that down as a guy who's about to turn 30 and who has missed a considerable amount of time in his career. That was an incredibly fair offer so wondering if there's more to it.
 

jon abbey

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Heyman (now at the NY Post):

“Judge, according to multiple sources, countered the Yankees offer at nine or 10 years at $36 million a year for up to $360 million (though someone close to Judge denied that).”
 

terrynever

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Judge talks about how winning the next game is all that matters to him but his contract pleas say “me, me, me.”
 

jon abbey

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So the middle ground is what 8 years 33 mil or about 8/260?
There is no way NY goes past 8 years, so while 260 is not actually halfway between 213 and 360 (!!!!), I do think that the absolute highest NY would go is something like 8/256, so yes.
 

cromulence

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This whole thing is a kind of a shame. I really want to love Judge, and I basically have until now, but between the vax shit and turning down what seems like a very fair offer, it's getting tougher. It really feels like he wants to be somewhere else, and hey, that's his right, but it also means I'm not sure I like the guy as much as I used to. Oh well. Hope he plays well this year and they win it all, and then he can move on.
 

Murderer's Crow

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This whole thing is a kind of a shame. I really want to love Judge, and I basically have until now, but between the vax shit and turning down what seems like a very fair offer, it's getting tougher. It really feels like he wants to be somewhere else, and hey, that's his right, but it also means I'm not sure I like the guy as much as I used to. Oh well. Hope he plays well this year and they win it all, and then he can move on.
It's New York and he hasn't won shit yet and he wants to be paid until he's 40. We'll be fine if he goes somewhere else, as much as it sucks. The truth is that the vax shit and the contract stuff kind of turned a lot of people against him in a very short period of time. Everyone is still a Judge fan but something about the way he's using that confidence which he normally uses against our opponents but instead wielding it against the organization is off putting. Every player should fight for the biggest contract they think they deserve and who are we to judge whether or not he should have accepted but clearly something went wrong here.
 

EvilEmpire

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It's just business and I don't like Judge any less for trying to get his. That's fine. I'll feel differently if he hurts the teams because has to sit out games in Toronto because he won't get vaccinated. Poor leadership from someone expected to be a leader on the team.

I'll resent that, for sure.
 

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It's amazing how quickly we move from "The players deserve to be paid" during a lockout to "How could he turn down a fair offer like that?" We all still think like baseball ops people... Cashman played this really well, at least in the short term. I'm really glad we're not seeing the same situation play out in the Devers negotiations.

Objectively Judge is asking for Mookie money as a FA, despite not being as good and being older. OTOH he's the premier player on a team that likes to hold itself up as the premier team and legacy in the entire sport, so I don't think it should really be surprising that he's looking to paid similarly. Heck, the player he most resembles plays on his team and got a contract like that from the Marlins. I wouldn't want to give him that contract, but I can see why he'd want it. He's probably also positioned well to be one of the top FAs this coming offseason, and if the spending boom from this past year is any indication, other teams may be looking to throw money around...
 

jon abbey

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Objectively Judge is asking for Mookie money as a FA, despite not being as good and being older.
And actually more, there is a bunch of deferred money in the Mookie deal, making the actual current yearly value $25.5M.

Almost no contending team is ever positioned well to lose a superstar, but NY is positioned OK to lose Judge if that's what ends up happening. If they lose Judge and Gallo both, that will be hard to replace.
 

jon abbey

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Also...

It's amazing how quickly we move from "The players deserve to be paid" during a lockout to "How could he turn down a fair offer like that?" We all still think like baseball ops people.
The younger players deserve to be paid more, the huge deals often end up as overpays for actual performance. It's not so much that 'the players deserve to be paid' as 'performance and salary need to be more closely linked', and this CBA did help some with that, but still more often than not, it's the smart move to let the superstar leave and maintain financial flexibility as well as roster flexibility.
 

OCD SS

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And actually more, there is a bunch of deferred money in the Mookie deal, making the actual current yearly value $25.5M.

Almost no contending team is ever positioned well to lose a superstar, but NY is positioned OK to lose Judge if that's what ends up happening. If they lose Judge and Gallo both, that will be hard to replace.
I never really look at the actual payments, only the AAV/ CBT numbers; players use whatever number is larger to feed their egos and teams backload and defer money to get extra marginal value out, but those numbers aren’t being used (by teams) to justify not spending.
 

OCD SS

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Also...



The younger players deserve to be paid more, the huge deals often end up as overpays for actual performance. It's not so much that 'the players deserve to be paid' as 'performance and salary need to be more closely linked', and this CBA did help some with that, but still more often than not, it's the smart move to let the superstar leave and maintain financial flexibility as well as roster flexibility.
Agreed on the first point, but since the system didn’t change the basic structure of how the player pool extracts their money from ownership overall, it’s reasonable to expect superstars now to stilllook for that money at the end of their FA deals.
 

allmanbro

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I've always figured the aging curve has to be pretty harsh for Judge. He's a big guy with an injury history, and his K rates have gone down recently, but will likely become a problem if he loses any bat speed. I don't really know how teams model these things, but can we expect him to be above average after 35?
 

Oil Can Dan

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I think it was in poor form for Cashman to announce the offer Judge turned down. Not the biggest deal in the world but poor form. Was his excuse really something along the lines of "I'd be getting questions from reporters if I didn't so I just did"?
 

terrynever

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I think it was in poor form for Cashman to announce the offer Judge turned down. Not the biggest deal in the world but poor form. Was his excuse really something along the lines of "I'd be getting questions from reporters if I didn't so I just did"?
It’s New York. You can’t hide anything in the Big Apple.
 

jon abbey

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I think it was in poor form for Cashman to announce the offer Judge turned down. Not the biggest deal in the world but poor form. Was his excuse really something along the lines of "I'd be getting questions from reporters if I didn't so I just did"?
I think it was kind of brilliant, he needed the fanbase to see that NY made a very fair offer.
 

Oil Can Dan

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I know the offer would make its way into the public, but by stating it himself I feel like Cashman put it directly on Judge in a way that’s not typically done. It seems almost confrontational and I don’t see how that’s helpful in eventually getting a deal done.

I don’t think it’s the biggest deal in the world. I just find it unnecessary. It may help in the court of public opinion but I don’t want my GM to care about stuff like that.
 

terrynever

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I know the offer would make its way into the public, but by stating it himself I feel like Cashman put it directly on Judge in a way that’s not typically done. It seems almost confrontational and I don’t see how that’s helpful in eventually getting a deal done.

I don’t think it’s the biggest deal in the world. I just find it unnecessary. It may help in the court of public opinion but I don’t want my GM to care about stuff like that.
Cashman has been around so long, he can do things however he wants. What GM has lasted 25 years in the same job? Must be a few but I am too old to remember anything.
 

terrynever

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Cashman has been around so long, he can do things however he wants. What GM has lasted 25 years in the same job? Must be a few but I am too old to remember anything.
Answering myself now. Ed Barrow served 23 years as Yankee GM after fleeing Boston.

The Steinbrenner family has own the Yanks for 49 years. Seems longer.
 

jon abbey

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I know the offer would make its way into the public, but by stating it himself I feel like Cashman put it directly on Judge in a way that’s not typically done. It seems almost confrontational and I don’t see how that’s helpful in eventually getting a deal done.

I don’t think it’s the biggest deal in the world. I just find it unnecessary. It may help in the court of public opinion but I don’t want my GM to care about stuff like that.
I understand your point fully, but I think the point is they are not going to get a deal done, now (obviously) or after the season either. Judge is asking for at least 9/324, not coming down off that during three weeks of negotiations, and so Cashman has essentially been forced to move on.
 

OCD SS

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Piggybacking off of my post on Effectively Wilds' fair contract study in the Devers extension thread, here's a quick look at Judge:
  • The Yankees have paid him less than $21M
  • He has put up $194.1 in value
Caveats apply, but if Judge finishes his career as a Yankee, the organization will most likely still have come out ahead.
 

jon abbey

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Caveats apply, but if Judge finishes his career as a Yankee, the organization will most likely still have come out ahead.
And if he leaves in FA, they will almost certainly come out much farther ahead.

The system definitely sucks (it's a bit better in the new CBA), but personally I don't think that is a good way to look at potential FA deals.
 

OCD SS

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It’s not a good way to look at it from a baseball ops mindset, but I think it’s instructive as a way to readjust our thinking about contract value.

It should be a counter to the “greedy player” narrative that Cashman has set up by releasing the Yankee contract offer. That the players have to go through a pretty unfair system in order to get to a “fair” contract offer might place these ideas in the “Baseball is Broken” thread, but at this point the Yankees could just accede to his demands and come out ahead. I guess if MLB had a mechanism to let teams absorb sunk costs without hindering roster flexibility while still paying the player there would be a lot less hand wringing about this…
 

jon abbey

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at this point the Yankees could just accede to his demands and come out ahead.
Come out ahead how? The previous seasons are gone, they don't matter in this context. Albert Pujols meant at least as much to St. Louis as Judge does to the Yankees, but he also got to FA at an older age (leaving aside the rumors that he is actually even older) and STL smartly let another team pay him 10/240 for a grand total of 12 WAR.

Again, Judge is likely my favorite Yankee ever, I certainly don't think he is being greedy, but the economics of baseball make it so that it is rarely smart for a contending team to sign giant long-term deals, whether it's for their own player or someone else's.
 

EvilEmpire

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The Yankees made a strong offer and they'll see what the market for him looks like after the season is over.

Zero reason to bid against themselves right now.
 

jtn46

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I think it was kind of brilliant, he needed the fanbase to see that NY made a very fair offer.
Many fans are never convinced of this. I bet Kay and Franscesca were taking calls about how the Yankees should have beat Seattle's offer to Cano right up until he started failing PED tests.
 

terrynever

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It was strange to see Cardinals fans welcome back Pujols. I know they love everything about their Redbirds, and they were also honoring Molina and Wainwright on Opening Day, but why reward a guy for taking more money to go elsewhere?
 

jon abbey

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It was strange to see Cardinals fans welcome back Pujols. I know they love everything about their Redbirds, and they were also honoring Molina and Wainwright on Opening Day, but why reward a guy for taking more money to go elsewhere?
I think they were ignoring that and thanking him for the awesome years he spent in STL previously.
 

terrynever

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I think they were ignoring that and thanking him for the awesome years he spent in STL previously.
True. But some of those Midwestern fans are too nice. They are different than fans in the northeast.

Yankees have been reluctant to let homegrown stars go, at least until Cano got his chance. Now they seem to be drawing a line on Judge because of his age. College players give away three or four years before they turn pro, and that’s a hidden cost of going to school.
 

Van Everyman

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Is it a coincidence that both the Sox and Yankees are seemingly struggling to extend their stars? Or that their stars are intent on exploring the market? It seems interesting to me regardless.
 

VORP Speed

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I think they were ignoring that and thanking him for the awesome years he spent in STL previously.
They were thanking him for signing that albatross deal with a team other than own. What’s better than having a superstar in his prime and then letting someone else massively overpay for his decline? It’s nothing but good memories for STL fans.
 

jon abbey

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Judge's arb hearing is finally set, it will be next Wednesday, 6/22. It will not be a good sign for Judge's future with NY if they cannot come to an agreement before then (Judge asked for $21M, NY offered $17M, Judge's 2022 stats to date are supposed to be ignored by everyone involved).