Only God Can Judge Judge

DeadlySplitter

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The lead article on ESPN (Olney) set up that he declined a midway offer of 19M and is fighting for the immediate future of the players, yadda yadda. Hmm.
 

jon abbey

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That leaves NY around $10M under the $270M level that I think they need to stay under to not potentially impact their Brandon Mayea signing next January.
 

StuckOnYouk

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With the monster year he is having is there any chance the Yanks just step up with a 10/300 type offer? Would it take more than 300 at this point?
I can’t imagine the Yankees lose this guy - especially knowing the Sox would be one of the teams with money to spend and OF vacancies to fill (not that would Bloom would offer him 10/300ish…but maybe Sox ownership steps in?)
 

DeadlySplitter

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Everything about this FA profile screams 350M+, except his age since he was a late bloomer and a pretty meh at best injury history. It will be really interesting what he gets.
 

Max Power

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With the monster year he is having is there any chance the Yanks just step up with a 10/300 type offer? Would it take more than 300 at this point?
I can’t imagine the Yankees lose this guy - especially knowing the Sox would be one of the teams with money to spend and OF vacancies to fill (not that would Bloom would offer him 10/300ish…but maybe Sox ownership steps in?)
It would still be a terrible idea. He's 30 already and that's a whole lot of strike zone to cover as your physical skills decline. If I had to bet, his decline will be sudden and well before those 10 years are up. But the Yankees are made of money, so maybe they don't care at all about half a contract being a waste.
 

jon abbey

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It's so hard to hypothesize because there is so much we don't know. We do know that most large FA deals end up hurting the team who issues them, we do know that once guys actually get to FA (and there is a bit of time between the end of the season and FA where only NY can talk to him still), almost no one stays with their original team. I read somewhere earlier today only 7 of 57 players who hit FA and signed a nine figure deal did it with their original team (also relevant for Bogaerts/Devers, of course).

We don't know what Cashman's backup plan is, besides trading for Stanton a few years back. We don't know if Judge is so committed to getting the most money possible that he will sign anywhere, the Cubs have been rumored as a potential big bidder but no way he is competing for a title for a while with them.
 

jon abbey

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It's also worth noting that he has career home/road OPS splits of 1.021/.882. .882 is still good but for comparison, Trout's career home/road OPS splits are 1.022/.985.

And to further confuse things, Judge has started playing CF quite a bit this year and is solid there if not spectacular. That adds value, depending on how many years he can keep doing that, of course.
 

jon abbey

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Not sure why it took until the last minute for the two sides to agree on kind of an obvious midpoint, but not having a hearing where NY says bad things about Judge while he is watching on Zoom has to help the odds of him staying slightly.
 

Murderer's Crow

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It's so hard to hypothesize because there is so much we don't know. We do know that most large FA deals end up hurting the team who issues them, we do know that once guys actually get to FA (and there is a bit of time between the end of the season and FA where only NY can talk to him still), almost no one stays with their original team. I read somewhere earlier today only 7 of 57 players who hit FA and signed a nine figure deal did it with their original team (also relevant for Bogaerts/Devers, of course).

We don't know what Cashman's backup plan is, besides trading for Stanton a few years back. We don't know if Judge is so committed to getting the most money possible that he will sign anywhere, the Cubs have been rumored as a potential big bidder but no way he is competing for a title for a while with them.
Cashman's plan could come into view over the next 4 weeks. If he acquires an outfielder under control, that might be to take some risk off the table.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Steve Cohen has the Brinks truck idling in his driveway
Yea, but let's not forget that if Steve is backing up the truck for Judge, it's going to be a massive massive overpay. The rest of baseball wants Judge too and everyone has the money to give him the type of deal we're pretending we know he would sign (10/350ish). If Steve wants to give him $40m/yr for 10 years, go for it. It will suck for the NL and it will suck for Yankees fans but we've been on the back end of a lot of contracts at this point. We'll be fine.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman's plan could come into view over the next 4 weeks. If he acquires an outfielder under control, that might be to take some risk off the table.
If Hicks is actually adequate again, that definitely helps. An OF under control would be replacing Gallo who is a FA, but certainly another OF under control (like Ian Happ) would help NY's overall position.
 

EvilEmpire

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The price will be too high and it won't happen, but I'd love to see Cashman pry Bryan Reynolds away from the Pirates.
 

RedOctober3829

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Aaron Judge in Boston makes so much sense that even Judge can see that and he should use that as leverage to get more money out of NY. Boston has very little in OF prospects and a couple of holes in the OF to fill this winter. Depending on what happens with X, they’d need a middle of the order bat too.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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“Come out to the coast, we’ll get together, have a few laughs…”

(sorry if this is huge, I’m on mobile and it looks normal!)
 

BigMike

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That leaves NY around $10M under the $270M level that I think they need to stay under to not potentially impact their Brandon Mayea signing next January.
So what counts on payroll. If you pay a guy for 3 months and then deal them is their whole payroll gone. And if you pick up someone new are you responsible for their whole salary for the year.

Or is it like the NHL where payroll is basically calculated on a day by day basis based on you you are paying at any time.

Or is it a snapshot of the max total payroll across the season
 

jon abbey

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So what counts on payroll. If you pay a guy for 3 months and then deal them is their whole payroll gone. And if you pick up someone new are you responsible for their whole salary for the year.

Or is it like the NHL where payroll is basically calculated on a day by day basis based on you you are paying at any time.

Or is it a snapshot of the max total payroll across the season
The middle one, if a guy makes $10M and you get him halfway through the season, $5M counts on your cap.
 

jon abbey

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The price will be too high and it won't happen, but I'd love to see Cashman pry Bryan Reynolds away from the Pirates.
It would take an injury or two, and clearly I am not rooting for that, but I would like to see Estevan Florial get at least a few weeks of ABs to see if his recent hot streak in AAA translates to the bigs. He hasn't gotten enough ABs for years because of injuries (and Covid wiping out 2020), but he is still 24 and has been raking in recent weeks.
 

jon abbey

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Aaron Judge in Boston makes so much sense that even Judge can see that and he should use that as leverage to get more money out of NY. Boston has very little in OF prospects and a couple of holes in the OF to fill this winter. Depending on what happens with X, they’d need a middle of the order bat too.
He has a career OPS of .615 in Fenway in 139 PAs. Not saying that matters so much, but worth pointing out.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jack was just doing his job, reporting what Hal said.

Not sure the thread needed bumping on this non-news news, but here at least is an attempt to get everything Hal said into one tweet:

View: https://twitter.com/eboland11/status/1544719274291433473
I put it in here because it's the first public comments that I've seen from Yankees ownership on the Judge situation. I found it interesting that he didn't come out and say that we plan on Judge being a Yankee for life or something of that nature.
 

jon abbey

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I put it in here because it's the first public comments that I've seen from Yankees ownership on the Judge situation. I found it interesting that he didn't come out and say that we plan on Judge being a Yankee for life or something of that nature.
What owner would ever say that about anyone entering FA? If someone offers him 10/500, should NY match or top that? Judge is literally my favorite Yankee ever and I would still say 'no thank you'.
 

RedOctober3829

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What owner would ever say that about anyone entering FA? If someone offers him 10/500, should NY match or top that? Judge is literally my favorite Yankee ever and I would still say 'no thank you'.
I mean don't take it literally but you say that we plan on him being here for the long-term and if something changes then you have a chance of winning the PR battle. "Hey we tried every avenue to sign Aaron, but ultimately it was his decision to move on, etc."
 

jon abbey

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You can't really win a PR battle if your star goes elsewhere, NY did their part there by announcing the offer they made him before the season. At this point, it's mostly up to Judge, but most players who make it to FA end up signing elsewhere.

FWIW, quietly Judge is slumping a bit, a .535 OPS in his last 45 PAs.
 

jon abbey

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As if this year has not played out perfectly enough already for Judge since turning down NY's 7/213 offer, the team that has been most rumored as a Judge landing spot this winter has been his hometown SF Giants, he grew up 90 miles away. Well, the 2023 schedules came out this week, and the Yankees open up at home against...

yes, SFG. I would like to have seen the smile on Judge's face when he learned that.
 

snowmanny

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Every single one of those years is crazy, including this one.

Looks as if it was Bonds 57, Sosa 52 at the end of August 2001. But what is crazy is that in 117PA in Sep/Oct 2001 Barry Bonds had an OPS of 1.685 : 403/607/1078
 

jon abbey

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If I'm Judge (ha!), I have my agent tell NY after the season:

"Aaron wants 8/320 and he wants you to dump the anachronistic facial hair rules, not just for him but for everyone going forward. If you do this, he will happily sign today and be the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future, otherwise he will test FA."
 

E5 Yaz

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If I'm Judge (ha!), I have my agent tell NY after the season:

"Aaron wants 8/320 and he wants you to dump the anachronistic facial hair rules, not just for him but for everyone going forward. If you do this, he will happily sign today and be the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future, otherwise he will test FA."
"We'll end the facial hair policy if you take 6/250"
 

jon abbey

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From Mike Axisa’s new Patreon update, Judge is making a late run at the Triple Crown also.

“At this point Judge isn’t just chasing the AL’s single-season home run record. He’s also chasing a Triple Crown. He leads the league in home runs and runs batted in, and after going 16-for-33 (.485) in his last nine games, Judge is hitting .307. He’s now in the batting race too.

Here’s where Judge sits in the Triple Crown categories (AL only):

AVG: .307 (behind Xander Bogaerts at .319, Luis Arraez at .315, Jose Abreu at .310, and Nate Lowe at .309)

HR: 55 (Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are distant seconds with 34 each)

RBI: 121 (Jose Ramirez has 109 and no one else has more than 90)”
 

Marciano490

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Not a triple crown category, but looks like he’s also leading the AL in runs by 29, which is equally insane.
 

BoSox Rule

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Obviously an insane year but to put it into perspective his Wrc+ is 205, same as Ruth 1930, , McGwire 98, the Bagwell and Thomas strike year, and a deadball Cobb year all tied for 22nd best. The only names in the top 21 are Bonds, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Mantle, and Gehrig. The only other 200 wRC+ years are a couple more Ruth’s, Musial 1948, another dead all Cobb, Mantle 56, and Covid Soto.