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RedOctober3829

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Proven how? Because you say so?
The results of the offseason speak for itself. No significant additions as of yet to address their biggest need which is in the rotation. Sam Kennedy coming out this week and saying there are budget parameters. Combine that with multiple reports saying they need to shed payroll before thinking about adding said significant addition says there is an effort to keep payroll at or around where they are now.

No one has an act. It’s frustration that ownership is holding this team back from getting better.
 

RS2004foreever

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Per Bradford
Feeling per sources is Red Sox prioritizing Jordan Montgomery over other potential free agent pitching additions, but still waiting for price to come down

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1761031905477116047


It's interesting - so much of what we think about the future direction of the Red Sox and ownership's willingness to invest turns on Montgomery. Sign Montgomery and the Red Sox are acting like the Red Sox. Sign Montgomery and I can see the RS in contention for a wild card (and they might be without him).

And we just don't know. But that comment from Bradford makes me a little more optimistic.
Not sure how I acquired the sleeping polar bear icon - but it is kind of appropriate for this offseason.
 

chrisfont9

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Does it fucking matter at this point? They didn't get him, were never going to get him, and none of the other pitchers are a comp. It sucks but it's done.
I'd love to know too, because we know they aren't paying top dollar for pitchers in their 30s, but it would be interesting if they really did view Yamamoto as a major exception, since there will be other exceptions to the rule that we don't see any good FAs in their mid-20s. Or put another way, a lot of people think their spending rule is not to do it at all, but I suspect it's more nuanced than that. For now, though, you're right.
 

chrisfont9

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Per Bradford
Feeling per sources is Red Sox prioritizing Jordan Montgomery over other potential free agent pitching additions, but still waiting for price to come down

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1761031905477116047


It's interesting - so much of what we think about the future direction of the Red Sox and ownership's willingness to invest turns on Montgomery. Sign Montgomery and the Red Sox are acting like the Red Sox. Sign Montgomery and I can see the RS in contention for a wild card (and they might be without him).

And we just don't know. But that comment from Bradford makes me a little more optimistic.
Not sure how I acquired the sleeping polar bear icon - but it is kind of appropriate for this offseason.
It might only mean that we can forget about Snell, as most of us have anyway.
 

joe dokes

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No one has an act. It’s frustration that ownership is holding this team back from getting better.
Or at least holding them back from spending money in certain ways. Maybe on long-term deals for pitchers over 30? Ultimately, while a sound strategy in terms of overall value of a deal, such an approach will likely mean no top-flight FA pitchers.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It might only mean that we can forget about Snell, as most of us have anyway.
Snell is a guy who I'd love to have on a 2 year deal but he seems way more likely to be absolute shit in 3 years. Montgomery seems a safer bet to produce at least as a "no. 4" starter AND still give you 160+ innings in years 3-5
 

Fishy1

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I really hope Bradford is right. Will the price come down on Montgomery? Who knows.
I think there's a pretty good chance it does at this point. My suspicion (and it may just be that, a suspicion!) is that a lot of the teams who splurged on pitching the last few years got burned very badly, and if I had to guess are not so eager to blow another 200 million when the guys arm might fall off or become noodleish at a moment's notice. My point being, the Red Sox are not the only people regretting paying hundreds of millions for pitchers in their 30's right now.

Maybe the Yankees double-down and give out another Rodonish contract, but I don't know. I think they'd rather just pay Snell 40 million for one year or something.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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We're not — and they're not reports, they're speculations based mostly on hearsay. All of the media reports about Sox free agent courtship are indexed to the CBT threshold, with the implication that it's malpractice for them not to meet it. They're not indexed to the total contract outlay for the free agents in question, and whether those players will make sense relative to in-house options in year 2 or 3 of their contracts or beyond. And of course, they were ready to drop a ton on YY.
You keep claiming the media is trying to rile people up and speculating on hearsay and not "reporting." I'm curious as to why you assume that Red Sox beat writers are just making shit up. Columnists? Sure. Reporters? Unlikely as that would make it much, much more difficult to get information in the future.

I'm also curious why people think "industry source" isn't someone inside of the Red Sox front office. We have no idea who is leaking and who is not, but the idea that the Red Sox FO isn't leaking at all is ridiculous.
 

uncannymanny

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I suspect if the price comes down, his options will open right back up and he’ll have better ones than the Sox. Hope I’m wrong.
 

GB5

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Such a fine line here. With all the crap they have taken all off-season, imagine if the Sox were just being coy, and were correctly reading the market all along and are able to get Montgomery on a deal well under what the expectation was?

The other side is if Monty’s market really is crashing and someone like Philly jumps in and lands him at 3/75ish, 4/100, then the Sox are going to get further crucified.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You keep claiming the media is trying to rile people up and speculating on hearsay and not "reporting." I'm curious as to why you assume that Red Sox beat writers are just making shit up. Columnists? Sure. Reporters? Unlikely as that would make it much, much more difficult to get information in the future.

I'm also curious why people think "industry source" isn't someone inside of the Red Sox front office. We have no idea who is leaking and who is not, but the idea that the Red Sox FO isn't leaking at all is ridiculous.
The one thing I'll say is that there have been next to no leaks about deals they've actually done this winter. It strikes me as strange that if there are "industry sources" within the Sox FO talking to local reporters that they only seem to be leaking information about what the team isn't doing and who they're not willing to pay for. You'd think that these sources would have access enough to leak a "Sox are about to trade Sale to Atlanta" or "Sox are about to sign Liam Hendriks" story to some of these same reporters. Maybe they are and I've missed those reports, but it sure seems like Breslow and company have managed to surprise everyone with most of their moves this winter. Which leads me to believe that if there are sources in the organization, maybe they're not all that close to the decision-makers.
 

E5 Yaz

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The one thing I'll say is that there have been next to no leaks about deals they've actually done this winter. It strikes me as strange that if there are "industry sources" within the Sox FO talking to local reporters that they only seem to be leaking information about what the team isn't doing and who they're not willing to pay for. You'd think that these sources would have access enough to leak a "Sox are about to trade Sale to Atlanta" or "Sox are about to sign Liam Hendriks" story to some of these same reporters. Maybe they are and I've missed those reports, but it sure seems like Breslow and company have managed to surprise everyone with most of their moves this winter. Which leads me to believe that if there are sources in the organization, maybe they're not all that close to the decision-makers.
Just an addendum to this: I don't know if I'd call it "standard" business practice, but there's the theory that you tell some members of your staff -- whether in sports, or outside of it -- one piece of "information" and other staffers another piece of information, just to see which starts making the rounds. In that way, you narrow down those who can't keep their mouths shut
 

Sprowl

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Just an addendum to this: I don't know if I'd call it "standard" business practice, but there's the theory that you tell some members of your staff -- whether in sports, or outside of it -- one piece of "information" and other staffers another piece of information, just to see which starts making the rounds. In that way, you narrow down those who can't keep their mouths shut
Also known as the Tyrion Lannister gambit.

I wonder if any of the Boras Four are starting to feel antsy about getting spring training under way, or if they are quite content to delay reporting well into March.
 

nvalvo

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It might only mean that we can forget about Snell, as most of us have anyway.
Snell is a bad fit. If we'd wanted that Cy Young–upside, catastrophic-downside profile, we would have kept Chris Sale and found a different infielder.

But we actually have a ton of SP upside. We have a bunch of guys in their 20s with something about them that suggests they could — if they take another step forward — pop into front-of-rotation starters. If Houck can attenuate his times-through-the-order penalty, if Whitlock can hold up to a starter's workload, if Pivetta can keep the ball in the ballpark a touch more, if Bello can tweak the slider and the four-seam location, if Giolito can fix his mechanical issues... there's actually a ton of upside. What we need is to raise the floor.

What Montgomery offers is a high floor, as high as any pitcher can really. In the four seasons since his TJS (one of which was only 60 games long), he's thrown 568 innings (169 IP/162 team games) of 3.67 FIP. That's... exactly what we need.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I'm also curious why people think "industry source" isn't someone inside of the Red Sox front office. We have no idea who is leaking and who is not, but the idea that the Red Sox FO isn't leaking at all is ridiculous.
Just an addendum to this: I don't know if I'd call it "standard" business practice, but there's the theory that you tell some members of your staff -- whether in sports, or outside of it -- one piece of "information" and other staffers another piece of information, just to see which starts making the rounds. In that way, you narrow down those who can't keep their mouths shut
If someone from within the Red Sox FO is the "industry source" for these leaks, then I think they are putting their job at risk. They'd have to have a pretty serious axe to grind to take that risk. It's not impossible, but I still don't think it's likely that this "source" is someone within the RS FO.
 

EvilEmpire

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If someone from within the Red Sox FO is the "industry source" for these leaks, then I think they are putting their job at risk. They'd have to have a pretty serious axe to grind to take that risk. It's not impossible, but I still don't think it's likely that this "source" is someone within the RS FO.
Maybe. It does seem like the Red Sox are disciplined about how they control information in their organization. Using local media appropriately isn’t just about preventing unauthorized leaks.

With so much negativity swirling around the team maybe someone in the organization thinks it is helpful for Sox fans to know that Montgomery is still a possibility and they’re still trying.
 

InsideTheParker

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Not sure how I acquired the sleeping polar bear icon - but it is kind of appropriate for this offseason.
That's funny. I posted the photo in the animals thread and assumed you grabbed it from there. It's actually a sad photo, b/c the polar ice caps are melting. But perhaps in the eyes of some that's a good metaphor for the Sox.
 

chrisfont9

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Snell is a bad fit. If we'd wanted that Cy Young–upside, catastrophic-downside profile, we would have kept Chris Sale and found a different infielder.

But we actually have a ton of SP upside. We have a bunch of guys in their 20s with something about them that suggests they could — if they take another step forward — pop into front-of-rotation starters. If Houck can attenuate his times-through-the-order penalty, if Whitlock can hold up to a starter's workload, if Pivetta can keep the ball in the ballpark a touch more, if Bello can tweak the slider and the four-seam location, if Giolito can fix his mechanical issues... there's actually a ton of upside. What we need is to raise the floor.

What Montgomery offers is a high floor, as high as any pitcher can really. In the four seasons since his TJS (one of which was only 60 games long), he's thrown 568 innings (169 IP/162 team games) of 3.67 FIP. That's... exactly what we need.
Well put/I agree. I would love to see what our current guys can do. But we need some protection against performance variance and injury, and Monty has been my preference all along for his steadiness. [Unless we can get Cease, but I'll stop beating that drum for now.]
 

sezwho

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Maybe. It does seem like the Red Sox are disciplined about how they control information in their organization. Using local media appropriately isn’t just about preventing unauthorized leaks.

With so much negativity swirling around the team maybe someone in the organization thinks it is helpful for Sox fans to know that Montgomery is still a possibility and they’re still trying.
Ironic that they seem to manage information flow quite carefully from a distance (tactical leaks or silence wise) but as soon as anyone opens their mouth it’s a freaking goat rodeo.
 

Sprowl

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Not sure how I acquired the sleeping polar bear icon - but it is kind of appropriate for this offseason.
That's funny. I posted the photo in the animals thread and assumed you grabbed it from there. It's actually a sad photo, b/c the polar ice caps are melting. But perhaps in the eyes of some that's a good metaphor for the Sox.
I saw ITP's post and copied the picture for an avatar. RS2004forever got the sleeping bear because he was posting actively over the prior week.

Its metaphorical meaning is up to the beholder.
 
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chrisfont9

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I wonder if any of the Boras Four are starting to feel antsy about getting spring training under way, or if they are quite content to delay reporting well into March.
My first thought was that it must be a very anxious time for them, but being vets they probably don't care all that much about February workouts, and they probably know the names of a few teams they can sign with short term if they do start freaking out. Guessing that once games happen, they will start to feel differently?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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My first thought was that it must be a very anxious time for them, but being vets they probably don't care all that much about February workouts, and they probably know the names of a few teams they can sign with short term if they do start freaking out. Guessing that once games happen, they will start to feel differently?
There's really only so much they can do to prepare for the season on their own (bullpens and such) so at some point holding out will affect their ability to be ready for Opening Day. Primarily, I would think the concern is game action and building one's pitch count through those games. If they only have time for 3-4 spring starts, that's not really enough to be ramped up to full capacity for their first turn in the regular season. There has to at least be a soft deadline coming up soon.
 

6-5 Sadler

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Boras addressed this in an interview last week. His response:
Meanwhile, under the supervision of Boras’s roster of trainers and support staff, Snell is training at a Boras facility in Newport Beach, Calif., Montgomery and Martinez are training at one in Florida and Bellinger and Chapman are training at one in Arizona. He promises they “do not end up behind in any way when they do report to camp.”

In Boras’s two most famous examples of late signings, Bryce Harper reported to the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2019 camp on March 2 after signing as a free agent. He posted an .878 OPS in April. Pitcher Kyle Lohse signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in ’08 on March 14, then went 3–0 with a 2.36 ERA in six April starts.

“I took care of this years ago,” Boras says. “I’ve spent millions on sports training facilities and instructors. I can conduct a spring training.”
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Boras addressed this in an interview last week. His response:
Yeah. This is not Boras' first rodeo, as much as I dislike saying it, he kinda knows what they hell he's doing. With the people that are on Boras's staff, it wouldn't surprise me if they were in better shape than the teammates on their new team.

Plus, how many times have you read veterans saying that with the way that training goes all year, they need three weeks tops to get in proper game shape. They're going to be fine.
 

uncannymanny

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I don't think there will be an auction - If he decides he is going to drop his price I am guessing Boras contacts the teams in order of who he wants to play for.
Precisely

Yeah. This is not Boras' first rodeo, as much as I dislike saying it, he kinda knows what they hell he's doing. With the people that are on Boras's staff, it wouldn't surprise me if they were in better shape than the teammates on their new team.

Plus, how many times have you read veterans saying that with the way that training goes all year, they need three weeks tops to get in proper game shape. They're going to be fine.
These guys know what the deal is when they hire Boras. Gotta say, love him or hate him, that spring training quote is baller.
 

KiltedFool

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Also known as the Tyrion Lannister gambit.

I wonder if any of the Boras Four are starting to feel antsy about getting spring training under way, or if they are quite content to delay reporting well into March.
Or listed as a canary trap in intelligence circles, but may be just a term cooked up by Tom Clancy.
 

bosox188

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There's really only so much they can do to prepare for the season on their own (bullpens and such) so at some point holding out will affect their ability to be ready for Opening Day. Primarily, I would think the concern is game action and building one's pitch count through those games. If they only have time for 3-4 spring starts, that's not really enough to be ramped up to full capacity for their first turn in the regular season. There has to at least be a soft deadline coming up soon.
This actually might affect Snell and Montgomery differently. I could see a team not minding if Snell was a bit late in being ready for the season, because they might actually prefer to delay the start of his season to save some bullets for the stretch run and the playoffs, given his track record of low innings per season. I've been wondering if it might become a trend for certain profiles of pitchers, even ones who aren't coming back from an injury lost year.

But for Montgomery, a lot of his value is tied to the fact that he's been consistent innings eater and can give a team a full season of innings and rest their bullpen a bit more every 5 days. If you're committing big money to him you really want him going right from the jump.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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But for Montgomery, a lot of his value is tied to the fact that he's been consistent innings eater and can give a team a full season of innings and rest their bullpen a bit more every 5 days. If you're committing big money to him you really want him going right from the jump.
Do you think he's just sitting around his house eating chips and pounding IPAs? He's at Boras' facility getting the best in conditioning and throwing. This isn't 1953 where the only exercise these guys do from October to February is bowl.
 

TomRicardo

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Do you think he's just sitting around his house eating chips and pounding IPAs? He's at Boras' facility getting the best in conditioning and throwing. This isn't 1953 where the only exercise these guys do from October to February is bowl.
I don't understand why people think these professional athletes are just babes in the woods. Boras has gone over his strategy with the pros and cons with these guys who have teams of people around them. "Look lets hold for now, I think you can make more, if not we can grab a one year and do this all over again." If my son played I would want Boras as his agent.

He was right way more than he is wrong. And when he is wrong he usually makes it up to the client.
 

bosox188

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Do you think he's just sitting around his house eating chips and pounding IPAs? He's at Boras' facility getting the best in conditioning and throwing. This isn't 1953 where the only exercise these guys do from October to February is bowl.
Well of course not, though I was in agreement with the post I was quoting that there's no substitution for true game action and presumably both the pitcher and the team would want to have a handful of starts under his belt to gear up for the regular season. Obviously if Montgomery signs a week or so from now it's not a huge deal.

My main point, and perhaps I didn't express it clearly, was that the math on holdout time might be different between Monty and Snell. I could see a team expecting 130-150 innings of ace-like performance from Snell and not really giving a shit if he doesn't make a regular season start until the first week of May, because presumably the team signing him has playoff aspirations and doesn't want him hitting inning 150 in August/September. But for Monty, if I'm signing him I'm expecting to get 180+ out of him, it's a big part of why I'm signing him. So maybe Boras and Snell are planning to hold out for much longer than Boras/Monty, unless someone really blows them away with a high AAV short term deal. Or maybe I'm completely wrong. *shrugs*
 

EvilEmpire

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If a team is interested in Montgomery and is worried about him being ready for the season, all they have to do is pay him. If they are willing to wait and hope for a better bargain, then it probably isn't that big of a concern. It's all just business. I think it will get sorted soon enough.
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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The results of the offseason speak for itself. No significant additions as of yet to address their biggest need which is in the rotation. Sam Kennedy coming out this week and saying there are budget parameters. Combine that with multiple reports saying they need to shed payroll before thinking about adding said significant addition says there is an effort to keep payroll at or around where they are now.

No one has an act. It’s frustration that ownership is holding this team back from getting better.
I hate having to repeat myself, but here goes yet again. Per MLB.com, these were the Top 10 free agent starters:
- Ohtani, Yamamoto, and ERod were never coming to Boston. Point blank.
- Nola re-upped with the Phillies before hitting the market
- Gray took a lower contract to play near his hometown in St Louis
- Imanaga carried all the uncertainty of a non-superstar Japanese pitcher, and given how his market cratered there were serious red flags behind the scenes
- Snell and Montgomery are Boras guys, and 2024 is proof that a) he has no issue duddlefucking around into spring training to get his guys signed b) his asking price is simply too high.
- #11 was Kershaw, who is 40 and broken
That left Giolito and Stroman. If you want to make an argument that Stroman should have been their priority, go right ahead. But I'm not sure where "the results speak for themselves" that they have no interest in improving the rotation. What do you suggest they should have done differently?
 

moondog80

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Auger34

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I hate having to repeat myself, but here goes yet again. Per MLB.com, these were the Top 10 free agent starters:
- Ohtani, Yamamoto, and ERod were never coming to Boston. Point blank.
Someone should have broken the news to Henry/Breslow/Werner that they never had a shot at Yamamoto because that was their clear #1 priority and they certainly acted/spoke like they believed they had a shot
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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His entire tenure in Boston, every fan group accused him of "being soft" and "injury prone" despite all evidence to the contrary. Does that sound like a fan base that ERod would want to return to with 28 other options?
 

chrisfont9

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Someone should have broken the news to Henry/Breslow/Werner that they never had a shot at Yamamoto because that was their clear #1 priority and they certainly acted/spoke like they believed they had a shot
Uh, pretty sure Yamamoto broke the news to them, after using them as leverage, which is pretty standard free agent behavior. Until that happened, I'm not sure how the Sox' ownership was supposed to know that.
 

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Someone should have broken the news to Henry/Breslow/Werner that they never had a shot at Yamamoto because that was their clear #1 priority and they certainly acted/spoke like they believed they had a shot
Of course neither YY nor his agent would rule out any team before he agrees to a contract, the whole point is to get the highest offer he can by maximizing the possible competition for the player's services. But that doesn't mean he didn't intend to go to the Dodgers all along.

Edit - or what chrisfont9 said above
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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Someone should have broken the news to Henry/Breslow/Werner that they never had a shot at Yamamoto because that was their clear #1 priority and they certainly acted/spoke like they believed they had a shot
At what point in the negotiations did the Sox appear to have the inside track? Or any track at all?
 

RedOctober3829

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I hate having to repeat myself, but here goes yet again. Per MLB.com, these were the Top 10 free agent starters:
- Ohtani, Yamamoto, and ERod were never coming to Boston. Point blank.
- Nola re-upped with the Phillies before hitting the market
- Gray took a lower contract to play near his hometown in St Louis
- Imanaga carried all the uncertainty of a non-superstar Japanese pitcher, and given how his market cratered there were serious red flags behind the scenes
- Snell and Montgomery are Boras guys, and 2024 is proof that a) he has no issue duddlefucking around into spring training to get his guys signed b) his asking price is simply too high.
- #11 was Kershaw, who is 40 and broken
That left Giolito and Stroman. If you want to make an argument that Stroman should have been their priority, go right ahead. But I'm not sure where "the results speak for themselves" that they have no interest in improving the rotation. What do you suggest they should have done differently?
The answer is easy: go and sign Montgomery. He is exactly what this team needs: an established durable starting pitcher who will be around for the long-term. If John Henry gives the go-ahead to spend the necessary funds to go sign him, that will go a long ways in improving the team's chances to be a serious contender for a playoff spot.
 

Auger34

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Uh, pretty sure Yamamoto broke the news to them, after using them as leverage, which is pretty standard free agent behavior. Until that happened, I'm not sure how the Sox' ownership was supposed to know that.
Thank you for explaining the free agent process and that players inform teams they are out of the running. Super helpful stuff.

The OP claimed that the Sox NEVER had a shot at Yamamoto. As far as I am concerned, the fact that the Yamamoto team took a meeting with the Sox means that they had somewhat of a shot. And clearly the owners believed they had at least a small shot.
 

chrisfont9

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Thank you for explaining the free agent process and that players inform teams they are out of the running. Super helpful stuff.

The OP claimed that the Sox NEVER had a shot at Yamamoto. As far as I am concerned, the fact that the Yamamoto team took a meeting with the Sox means that they had somewhat of a shot. And clearly the owners believed they had at least a small shot.
It sounds like we might actually be agreeing here, appearances to the contrary notwithstanding. I don't know how anyone involved is supposed to know what to believe, but I do a fair amount of negotiating at work, and you just have to live in the not-knowing.
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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The answer is easy: go and sign Montgomery. He is exactly what this team needs: an established durable starting pitcher who will be around for the long-term. If John Henry gives the go-ahead to spend the necessary funds to go sign him, that will go a long ways in improving the team's chances to be a serious contender for a playoff spot.
You're acting as if there's a free agent store and teams just buy what they need. It's the PLAYER who ultimately makes the decision. If he doesn't want to sign in Boston, what do you do?
 

SouthernBoSox

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You're acting as if there's a free agent store and teams just buy what they need. It's the PLAYER who ultimately makes the decision. If he doesn't want to sign in Boston, what do you do?
Can we please stop with this? Please. The payroll is 204 right now. 10% lower than last year:

This notion the Red Sox can’t sign guys because they won’t come here is ridiculous. Not with how soft this market is right now.

It’s unbelievable to me the length people are going to disallow the notion ownership simple doesn’t want to pay more.
 
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