Offseason rumors

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chrisfont9

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I guess my read on the Cotillo comment is they aren't saying no at a time when a lot of teams ARE saying no.
The situation is really strange because none of the Boras four have signed and more teams are saying they are NOT interested than are.
It makes me think maybe Philly swoops in on Montgomery.
Why? If they liked him enough wouldn't Dombro have signed him already? Isn't that his m.o., DD always gets his guy?

People are screaming about how the Sox refuse to sign these guys, but nobody else is interested either. Obviously teams have different needs and budgets, but you'd think that if they were willing to sign for any sane price, it would have happened already. There aren't even reports of negotiations, just Boras doing his things and other teams moving on.
 

manny

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Why? If they liked him enough wouldn't Dombro have signed him already? Isn't that his m.o., DD always gets his guy?

People are screaming about how the Sox refuse to sign these guys, but nobody else is interested either. Obviously teams have different needs and budgets, but you'd think that if they were willing to sign for any sane price, it would have happened already. There aren't even reports of negotiations, just Boras doing his things and other teams moving on.
I agree with this. While the Sox offseason has been incredibly frustrating, it almost feels like a microcosm of something going on throughout MLB. For every FA that signed a deal that people on here think the Sox should have signed, I'm sure there are a number of other fanbases that also think their team should have signed that deal. For all the flak we are (maybe rightfully) giving the Sox for not signing Monty or Snell, the fact is that no other team has signed them either even though they would improve literally any rotation in MLB.

On a separate note w/r/t Cora. It seems very likely this is his last season otherwise an extension would have been signed. I get the sense that Cora wouldn't mind moving on. I also wonder if Breslow maybe does not mind him moving on, with an eye towards Bailey being the next manager. If Bailey is able to work his magic with the Sox this season, you have to imagine some teams would be lining up to hire him as manager. With Breslow having a close personal relationship with Bailey and Breslow and Bailey aligned on building a pitching development machine, I wouldn't be surprised if Bres values Bailey more than Cora.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I will defend JWH here. I don't think he was lying. I don't think he has any hard rules on signing extensions, I think they are discussed. They have just made the wrong decision almost every time on contracts and extensions since Dombrowski left. FSG has a streak akin to Sony. Mookie is his Madame Webb.
They also made mistakes on who to extend when Dombrowski was here. It truly seems the mindset is, "when in doubt, don't extend the player". If that isn't the mindset, Mookie would still be here.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Why? If they liked him enough wouldn't Dombro have signed him already? Isn't that his m.o., DD always gets his guy?

People are screaming about how the Sox refuse to sign these guys, but nobody else is interested either. Obviously teams have different needs and budgets, but you'd think that if they were willing to sign for any sane price, it would have happened already. There aren't even reports of negotiations, just Boras doing his things and other teams moving on.
I agree with this. While the Sox offseason has been incredibly frustrating, it almost feels like a microcosm of something going on throughout MLB. For every FA that signed a deal that people on here think the Sox should have signed, I'm sure there are a number of other fanbases that also think their team should have signed that deal. For all the flak we are (maybe rightfully) giving the Sox for not signing Monty or Snell, the fact is that no other team has signed them either even though they would improve literally any rotation in MLB.
Yep, I do think both of these things are true, too. Just looking at the division, Toronto - who made the playoffs each of the last two years and probably should try to maximize its time with Bichette and Vlad Jr - is going with IKF at third and Kiermaier as its starting CF. It would seem Chapman and Bellinger would help there, and there were early reports of "Maybe Toronto will go after these guys!" but it hasn't happened yet and probably won't. And man, I know Boston's offseason hasn't been good, but imagine being a Blue Jays fan this offseason? Remember when people thought they were getting Ohtani for a minute?

Baltimore I would think would be a super-logical landing spot for Snell given that they have so many players in their cheap years still, but nothing's happening there. Yes, they will have to make a decision on those guys one day, but that's the case whether they sign Snell or not. They did trade for Burnes, but it doesn't need to be an either/or situation. I'm inclined to think they'll be hard-pressed to repeat last year's performance regardless, but Snell would definitely help!
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The Blue Jays did sign Turner, though. It’s not that the Sox have passed on any individual player, as a logical argument can be made on each one, it’s the collective pass on everyone except Giolito, that is more curious, given the teams needs and stated plans.
 

chawson

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This tweet from Cotillo yesterday appears of note: "McAdam said on our pod last night that they've stayed engaged with [Montgomery], so nothing really new there. Unless Henry opens up the wallet/raises his self-imposed budget (yes there's a hard cap) then no progress will be made." In particular, the reporting is that there is a "hard cap" on payroll standing firmly in the way of any Montgomery. Perhaps we do need to give away Jansen and his 2024 salary before Montgomery becomes a real option. If so, I would prefer they announce they are out on JM barring any unforeseen developments and we going to battle with the guys we got. At least we could then turn the page on the off season and stop being disappointed about the continued absence of any last minute pleasant surprises .
Is anyone else irritated that Masslive can't be bothered to provide an ounce of context or even-handedness about this standoff between the Red Sox FO and Boras clients? The framing of their reporting (and podcast) is mostly silly punditry at this point, all of it framed entirely around the Red Sox's (they are assuming) mandated cuts to payroll.

More context is required here. If you're going to tell this story properly, you have to include the necessary variable of Montgomery's asking price. They've been stoking outrage all offseason, with the implication that John Henry has given up on the team, the players, the fans. If people are happy to lap that narrative up, go for it. But there is a lot more to the story! And as many have pointed out, it's not just the Red Sox passing on Snell and Montgomery at their asks. For example, there's plenty of data about the aging curves of so-so stuff pitchers into their mid-thirties — why not do a story about Breslow's presumed apprehension about committing $150-175 million worth of resources to this kind of player? The reporting would be better if it at least gave some lip service to the notion that the Red Sox do not want to repeat a Patrick Corbin kind of signing, a Robbie Ray kind of signing, a Gio González kind of signing, a Carlos Rodón kind of signing, a Tyler Anderson kind of signing, at far more dollars than most of those guys signed for.

If this were a political or even municipal issue, it'd be clearer to see what's missing from their reporting. If your local school district passed a budget to the council that included an extra 25% increase in annual expenditures for the next 5-6 years to tear down its perfectly useful athletic facility and build a new state of the art, top of the line one in its place, you'd expect your local reporter to include that fact. You wouldn't want a story about school budget deliberations that viciously excoriates the city government for failing its children without even getting into the details of the issue, right?
 

uncannymanny

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Why? If they liked him enough wouldn't Dombro have signed him already? Isn't that his m.o., DD always gets his guy?

People are screaming
Agree with the first paragraph here. On the last bit, please stop this condescending bullshit. No one is “screaming”.
 

GlucoDoc

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This really looks like a giant game of Chicken with everyone posturing and waiting to see who will blink first. In that context, it is difficult to believe much of anything that is being said.
 

joe dokes

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Is anyone else irritated that Masslive can't be bothered to provide an ounce of context or even-handedness about this standoff between the Red Sox FO and Boras clients? The framing of their reporting (and podcast) is mostly silly punditry at this point, all of it framed entirely around the Red Sox's (they are assuming) mandated cuts to payroll.

More context is required here. If you're going to tell this story properly, you have to include the necessary variable of Montgomery's asking price. They've been stoking outrage all offseason, with the implication that John Henry has given up on the team, the players, the fans. If people are happy to lap that narrative up, go for it. But there is a lot more to the story! And as many have pointed out, it's not just the Red Sox passing on Snell and Montgomery at their asks. For example, there's plenty of data about the aging curves of so-so stuff pitchers into their mid-thirties — why not do a story about Breslow's presumed apprehension about committing $150-175 million worth of resources to this kind of player? The reporting would be better if it at least gave some lip service to the notion that the Red Sox do not want to repeat a Patrick Corbin kind of signing, a Robbie Ray kind of signing, a Gio González kind of signing, a Carlos Rodón kind of signing, a Tyler Anderson kind of signing, at far more dollars than most of those guys signed for.

If this were a political or even municipal issue, it'd be clearer to see what's missing from their reporting. If your local school district passed a budget to the council that included an extra 25% increase in annual expenditures for the next 5-6 years to tear down its perfectly useful athletic facility and build a new state of the art, top of the line one in its place, you'd expect your local reporter to include that fact. You wouldn't want a story about school budget deliberations that viciously excoriates the city government for failing its children without even getting into the details of the issue, right?
It's only irritating if you expect more. "Stoking outrage" may not be the majority locally, but its a clear plurality.
 

moondog80

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Is anyone else irritated that Masslive can't be bothered to provide an ounce of context or even-handedness about this standoff between the Red Sox FO and Boras clients? The framing of their reporting (and podcast) is mostly silly punditry at this point, all of it framed entirely around the Red Sox's (they are assuming) mandated cuts to payroll.

More context is required here. If you're going to tell this story properly, you have to include the necessary variable of Montgomery's asking price. They've been stoking outrage all offseason, with the implication that John Henry has given up on the team, the players, the fans. If people are happy to lap that narrative up, go for it. But there is a lot more to the story! And as many have pointed out, it's not just the Red Sox passing on Snell and Montgomery at their asks. For example, there's plenty of data about the aging curves of so-so stuff pitchers into their mid-thirties — why not do a story about Breslow's presumed apprehension about committing $150-175 million worth of resources to this kind of player? The reporting would be better if it at least gave some lip service to the notion that the Red Sox do not want to repeat a Patrick Corbin kind of signing, a Robbie Ray kind of signing, a Gio González kind of signing, a Carlos Rodón kind of signing, a Tyler Anderson kind of signing, at far more dollars than most of those guys signed for.

If this were a political or even municipal issue, it'd be clearer to see what's missing from their reporting. If your local school district passed a budget to the council that included an extra 25% increase in annual expenditures for the next 5-6 years to tear down its perfectly useful athletic facility and build a new state of the art, top of the line one in its place, you'd expect your local reporter to include that fact. You wouldn't want a story about school budget deliberations that viciously excoriates the city government for failing its children without even getting into the details of the issue, right?
But this isn't just about Jordan Montgomery. If they signed him tomorrow to a $175 mil deal, I'd be mad, It's about the entirety of the offseason. The failure to upgrade the rotation has been well documented. But at the moment, the projected opening day roster listed on soxprospects has both Emmanuel Valdez (who is a lefty and can't field) and Bobby Dalbec (34% K rate at AAA and he's now 29 years old).
 

simplicio

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But this isn't just about Jordan Montgomery. If they signed him tomorrow to a $175 mil deal, I'd be mad, It's about the entirety of the offseason. The failure to upgrade the rotation has been well documented. But at the moment, the projected opening day roster listed on soxprospects has both Emmanuel Valdez (who is a lefty and can't field) and Bobby Dalbec (34% K rate at AAA and he's now 29 years old).
That's a 28 man list fwiw. They do need to upgrade Dalbec but Valdez isn't likely to be a factor unless someone goes down.
 

chrisfont9

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This really looks like a giant game of Chicken with everyone posturing and waiting to see who will blink first. In that context, it is difficult to believe much of anything that is being said.
That's been my opinion. It's a Boras project to get veteran free agent starting pitching priced up to the veteran free agent position player market, except teams know all too well that starting pitching is more volatile than position players in general, and especially into their 30s. Boras and probably others want to use Yamamoto as the new benchmark, and the teams are calling bullshit on equating a 25-year-old arm to a 31-year-old one. It's not the Sox vs the angry fans, it's industry-wide.
 

GB5

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We spend a lot of time worrying incessantly about Dalbec being on this roster. I agree that he needs to be elsewhere, however he is the last player on the roster. IF, big if, he is used correctly, my guess is he will give you 150-200 league average to a touch above at bats, and negative defense. Not a killer.
Was there this much of an outcry over Kaleb Orr and Llovera
 

simplicio

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Was there this much of an outcry over Kaleb Orr and Llovera
Yes?

Dalbec doesn't make the team better, and he doesn't offer the upside of developing into something; he's been around for 4 years now and keeps getting worse.

It's also much easier to fix a bad reliever than a bat-first 1B who had a 34% K rate in AAA at age 28 with the ABS system running in his favor.
 
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moondog80

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We spend a lot of time worrying incessantly about Dalbec being on this roster. I agree that he needs to be elsewhere, however he is the last player on the roster. IF, big if, he is used correctly, my guess is he will give you 150-200 league average to a touch above at bats, and negative defense. Not a killer.
Was there this much of an outcry over Kaleb Orr and Llovera
In his last 406 MLB plate appearances (the past two years), he's hit 213/281/361 with a 36% K rate.

And yes, he's decent against lefties, but it's really hard to use him in only that capacity, he'd end up with some PA vs righties too. Is the 258/358/413 vs lefties worth the roster spot from a guy who will also give you 192/242/336 vs righties and no defensive value?

Barring multiple injuries, having him on the roster would be a really, really bad sign.
 

Sox Pride

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nice article in the Athletic by Jen McCaffrey about Breslow, Bailey and their staff analyzing and prepping our pitchers over the winter

An excerpt: ”Walker estimates the group spent hundreds of hours this winter not only formulating plans for each pitcher on the 40-man roster — 22 in total — but also for 11 non-roster invitees. The planning process was lengthy and detailed. It was an enormous process that began with going under the hood to understand each pitcher’s profile, Bailey said.”

exactly what we would hope for (and expect), and hopefully a source of (at least a little) optimism.
 

RS2004foreever

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This really looks like a giant game of Chicken with everyone posturing and waiting to see who will blink first. In that context, it is difficult to believe much of anything that is being said.
This. The most recent data we have is that as of two weeks ago the Red Sox were in "touch" with Montgomery and the Cubs were saying they were waiting for Belinger to call. These guys are going to sign contracts for 10's of millions of dollars. The Red Sox play a Spring training game TOMORROW.
 

HfxBob

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It seems weird that we're getting so few leaks about the asking prices for Boras's unsigned guys. The only ask that's been reported is Snell's 9/270, which of course was absurd.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Seems overly simplistic to say they "can't fit him in the budget" despite being $31M under the cap. Just because they appear to have up to $31M to allocate to his salary doesn't mean they should just give him all or most of it. The fact that he's still out there suggests his market isn't what he thinks it should be and the Sox seem to recognize that and are willing to wait him out to get a better price. We may not like it but it's business. They prefer to not pay more than they need to, like most businesses anywhere. It's foolish to expect them to act otherwise.
 

jbupstate

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Seems overly simplistic to say they "can't fit him in the budget" despite being $31M under the cap. Just because they appear to have up to $31M to allocate to his salary doesn't mean they should just give him all or most of it. The fact that he's still out there suggests his market isn't what he thinks it should be and the Sox seem to recognize that and are willing to wait him out to get a better price. We may not like it but it's business. They prefer to not pay more than they need to, like most businesses anywhere. It's foolish to expect them to act otherwise.
I just can’t understand how TM can throw “embarrassing” in to the comment. He doesn’t add how much Boras might be looking for. He doesn’t offer an opinion on how much the Sox might pay. He doesn’t even try to offer how much JM might be worth in his opinion.

He does start by say $31m under threshold and ends with an inflammatory comment. He’s better than that post.

What we absolutely do know is NOBODY has been interested in what Boras is selling. It appears the Sox are correctly waiting.
 

HfxBob

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I just can’t understand how TM can throw “embarrassing” in to the comment. He doesn’t add how much Boras might be looking for. He doesn’t offer an opinion on how much the Sox might pay. He doesn’t even try to offer how much JM might be worth in his opinion.

He does start by say $31m under threshold and ends with an inflammatory comment. He’s better than that post.

What we absolutely do know is NOBODY has been interested in what Boras is selling. It appears the Sox are correctly waiting.
Except we don't know if the Sox are waiting in a serious way...
 

HfxBob

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In a halfway rational scenario, the asking price for Montgomery should have determined by what Nola got. Monty's contract should be no more than 70-80% of Nola's.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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So who might be this "industry source?" Seems highly unlikely to be someone with the Red Sox. Or another team (because how would they know this?) So maybe another writer? If so, what's their source for this? The other possibility - probably most likely - is that this is coming from Boras or someone connected to him. In which case it should be discounted as shit-stirring.

I find it hard to believe that the Red Sox could not fit $25m or so into their "budget." The problem is that Montgomery is still asking for more ($ or years, or both) than they (or any other team) thinks he's worth.
 

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moondog80

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So who might be this "industry source?" Seems highly unlikely to be someone with the Red Sox. Or another team (because how would they know this?) So maybe another writer? If so, what's their source for this? The other possibility - probably most likely - is that this is coming from Boras or someone connected to him. In which case it should be discounted as shit-stirring.

I find it hard to believe that the Red Sox could not fit $25m or so into their "budget." The problem is that Montgomery is still asking for more ($ or years, or both) than they (or any other team) thinks he's worth.
Yes, this is Team Boras trying to embarrass the Red Sox. The issue with Montgomery is not his 2024 salary.
 

RedOctober3829

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So who might be this "industry source?" Seems highly unlikely to be someone with the Red Sox. Or another team (because how would they know this?) So maybe another writer? If so, what's their source for this? The other possibility - probably most likely - is that this is coming from Boras or someone connected to him. In which case it should be discounted as shit-stirring.

I find it hard to believe that the Red Sox could not fit $25m or so into their "budget." The problem is that Montgomery is still asking for more ($ or years, or both) than they (or any other team) thinks he's worth.
After all that’s transpired this offseason, you still find it hard to believe they’re willing to add a big salary?

It doesn’t matter where it comes from as I’ve stated all winter. I don’t want to rehash media stuff because we’re past the point of all the reports about payroll being proven correct.
 

chawson

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After all that’s transpired this offseason, you still find it hard to believe they’re willing to add a big salary?

It doesn’t matter where it comes from as I’ve stated all winter. I don’t want to rehash media stuff because we’re past the point of all the reports about payroll being proven correct.
We're not — and they're not reports, they're speculations based mostly on hearsay. All of the media reports about Sox free agent courtship are indexed to the CBT threshold, with the implication that it's malpractice for them not to meet it. They're not indexed to the total contract outlay for the free agents in question, and whether those players will make sense relative to in-house options in year 2 or 3 of their contracts or beyond. And of course, they were ready to drop a ton on YY.

In other words, it's all Why can't the Red Sox pay 3/$60 million for Teoscar Hernández, they can afford it! And sure, John Henry certainly can. But within the broader sphere of their window and team-building going forward, there are surely real reasons not to tie up another 3+ year contract for an OF/DH going forward, when they've got all these young outfielder prospects.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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We're not — and they're not reports, they're theories. All of the media reports about Sox free agent courtship are indexed to the CBT threshold, with the implication that it's malpractice not to meet it. They're not indexed to the total contract outlay for the free agents in question. And of course, they were ready to drop a ton on YY.

In other words, it's all Why can't the Red Sox pay 3/$60 million for Teoscar Hernández, they can afford it! And sure, John Henry certainly can! But within the broader sphere of their window and team-building going forward, there are surely real reasons not to tie up another 3+ year contract for an OF/DH going forward, when they've got all these young outfielder prospects.
What were they willing to pay YY? I haven’t seen any concrete reporting on any Sox offer to him.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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After all that’s transpired this offseason, you still find it hard to believe they’re willing to add a big salary?

It doesn’t matter where it comes from as I’ve stated all winter. I don’t want to rehash media stuff because we’re past the point of all the reports about payroll being proven correct.
Respectfully, I disagree that "we're past the point." Just because something hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't, or can't.

I do negotiations (labor negotiations) for a living. Sometimes you have to be persistent, or patient, and wait for the other side to make reasonable offers before you can reach an agreement. I'm willing to allow for the possibility that this is the case here. YMMV.
 

CR67dream

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What were they willing to pay YY? I haven’t seen any concrete reporting on any Sox offer to him.
Does it fucking matter at this point? They didn't get him, were never going to get him, and none of the other pitchers are a comp. It sucks but it's done.

It doesn’t matter where it comes from as I’ve stated all winter. I don’t want to rehash media stuff because we’re past the point of all the reports about payroll being proven correct.
Proven how? Because you say so?
 

HfxBob

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I really don't think Boras is going out of his way to embarrass the Red Sox. Is he also trying to embarrass the Cubs about Bellinger?

He's got 4 huge names unsigned, only one of them is of any real interest to the Sox.
 

soxhop411

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I really don't think Boras is going out of his way to embarrass the Red Sox. Is he also trying to embarrass the Cubs about Bellinger?

He's got 4 huge names unsigned, only one of them is of any real interest to the Sox.
And I think that shows this is more of a Boras issue than a Sox issue. FA's not being unsigned when ST rolls around is not uncommon. When pretty much every big name FA that is left on the market are all repped by the same agent. that should tell you something... Why has no other team bit at his asking price if it was reasonable
 

JCizzle

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Proven how? Because you say so?
Have the reports really been off on anything in a major way? I dunno, I find it hard to believe that generally respectable reporters like McAdams are simply making stuff up for clicks without a legitimate basis for their reports. Possible, I guess. But given that Kennedy and Warner's statements have largely gone from one extreme to the other over the past 4-5 months, I'm not sure what to make of the situation other than the reporting seems to generally track with the team's actions from my perspective.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I don't think that Boras is trying to "embarrass" the Red Sox. But pressure? Goad? Chide? Maybe.

Remember, the consistent Boras message is "If you don't sign my guys (and pay what I'm asking), you're not trying to win." I'm confident in saying that I think his non-public messaging is consistent with this, trying to put pressure on teams to spend more and using the media as a tool for this to the maximum extent possible.
 

jbupstate

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Does it fucking matter at this point? They didn't get him, were never going to get him, and none of the other pitchers are a comp. It sucks but it's done
This is the truest statement.

Sox and every other team wanted YY. They thought they were in the hunt until it became clear to them (and the NYY, Mets, etc) that it wasn’t going to happen. That huge slot of money ($200m?, $250m?, $300m+?) was for a special player… not just to spend elsewhere.

If BS and JM had asking prices below $150m, I think they would be signed already.

It does stink that they haven’t signed or traded for an upper half of the rotation starter. But plenty of teams want the same thing. Crap offseason all around. Hopefully they will surprise us with a transaction.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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In other words, it's all Why can't the Red Sox pay 3/$60 million for Teoscar Hernández, they can afford it! And sure, John Henry certainly can. But within the broader sphere of their window and team-building going forward, there are surely real reasons not to tie up another 3+ year contract for an OF/DH going forward, when they've got all these young outfielder prospects.

While I agree with your overall point, I'll disagree with this player in general.

Teoscar does something that none of the other similar prospects do - he hits right handed. He also provides what I'll call "passable" defense in the OF (at least as far as can be told from statistics, where FanGraphs has his UZR/150 in the OF the last three years as 0.5; -6.3; 6.7 - which I'll call passable over the last 3 seasons, admitting of course that the only time I've seen him play was against the Sox).

It would have made no sense for Soler, JDMartinez, or a LHH outfielder that can't play defense. For a RHH OF that plays passable defense, I think a 3yr deal would have made a heck of a lot of sense. Even more so if Yoshida could have been moved - which was probably more the prerequisite for signing Teoscar than anything else). Just saying that a 3yr deal to a power hitting RH OF is something that would have fit very well with the team.

Basically every corner OF and DH prospect they have at any advanced level hits LH (Duran, if he plays LF; Abreu; Valdez; even Anthony) and the team has basically no RH pop for the intermediate term.

If one wants to chalk up sucking in 2024 and 2025 (which I kind of get) then Hernandez makes / made no sense. If one wants to even seriously contend for WC2 in that time frame, Hernandez, or similar, makes a ton of sense on 3 years.
 

jbupstate

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I don't think that Boras is trying to "embarrass" the Red Sox. But pressure? Goad? Chide? Maybe.

Remember, the consistent Boras message is "If you don't sign my guys (and pay what I'm asking), you're not trying to win." I'm confident in saying that I think his non-public messaging is consistent with this, trying to put pressure on teams to spend more and using the media as a tool for this to the maximum extent possible.
Boras pants get tighter with every negative story on Sox spending. Keeps the Sox as a potential team that might be forced to cave to fan demand and make another team pay up.
 

moondog80

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I don't think that Boras is trying to "embarrass" the Red Sox. But pressure? Goad? Chide? Maybe.
Distinction without a difference. Boras routinely uses the media to put pressure on teams to sign his guys. All teams, not just the Red Sox. Which is fine, that's his job, and he's awesome at it. And it's the teams' job to resist that pressure and not do something that is against their interest.
 
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